A Case Study of North Sea Plaice and Sole
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EVOLUTIONARY EFFECTS OF FISHING AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT: A CASE STUDY OF NORTH SEA PLAICE AND SOLE Fabian M. Mollet Thesis committee Thesis supervisor: Prof. dr. A.D. Rijnsdorp Professor of sustainable fisheries Wageningen University Other members: Prof. dr. M. Heino (University of Bergen, Norway) Prof. dr. R.F. Hoekstra (Wageningen University) Prof. dr. J.M. Tinbergen (University of Groningen) Dr. H.W. van der Veer (Royal Netherlands Institute of Sea Research, Den Burg) This research was conducted under the auspices of the Graduate School of Wageningen Institute for Animal Sciences (WIAS). EVOLUTIONARY EFFECTS OF FISHING AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT: A CASE STUDY OF NORTH SEA PLAICE AND SOLE Fabian M. Mollet Thesis Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor at Wageningen University by the authority of the Rector Magnificus Prof. dr. M.J. Kropff, in the presence of the Thesis Committee appointed by the Academic Board to be defended in public on Friday 7 May 2010 at 11 a.m. in the Aula. Fabian M. Mollet Evolutionary effects of fishing and implications for sustainable management: a case study of North Sea plaice and sole, 204 pages Thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, NL (2010) With references, with summaries in English ISBN 978-90-8585-613-9 Summary Exploited resources might genetically evolve as a consequence of ex- ploitation by adapting their life history to the imposed mortality re- gime. Although evolution favors traits for survival and reproduction of the fittest, human-induced evolution might have negative consequences for the exploiter. In general, a shift towards lower growth rate, earlier maturation and increased reproductive investment might be expected from increased (unselective) mortality and these changes might lead to generally smaller exploited individuals. Hence, the evolution might ne- gatively affect the productivity of the resource and thus the sustainable exploitation and furthermore, genetic changes might be slow to reverse. If selection forces are high, evolution might occur fast and be observa- ble within a few decades. Fisheries provide a large scale experiment for fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) since fishing mortality rates, typically being size-selective, exceed natural mortality rates by a multiple and data samples are available for decadal time scales. This thesis aims to assess the potential importance of FIE for sustainable exploitation by empirical evidence as well as evolutionary modeling, illustrated for the North Sea flatfish plaice and sole. In empirical studies the problem of inferring on genetic changes from phenotypic observations lies in the disentangling of the phenotypic plasticity caused by environmental variations from the potential gene- tic change. This is at least partly achieved by constructing norms of reaction that account for this environmental variation. The probabi- listic maturation reaction norm for instance disentangles phenotypic plasticity in maturation caused by variation in growth. Because growth, maturation and reproductive investment are correlated due to tradeoffs on the individual level, a method was developed that fits an energy al- location model to individual growth trajectories, obtained by the back- calculation of otoliths. This method provides size-specific estimates of the mechanistic individual life history tradeoffs and of the selection differentials imposed by the fishery. Because the correlation of esti- mated life-history traits is captured, temporal changes could (for the first time) be analyzed conditionally on the correlation and on potenti- al environmental effectors, thus disentangling not only environmental variability but also effects from changes in another trait. The results suggest that maturation shifted to occur earlier, surplus energy and reproductive investment increased partly due to environmental factors, but that all changes also bear a genetic component, indicative for FIE. Species-specific individual-based eco-genetic models were developed to explore the evolutionary causes of reverse sexual size dimorphism in the case of flatfish. The hypothesis that males are smaller than fe- males because of an energy loss through behavioural reproductive in- vestments has to be rejected in this evolutionary perspective, since a higher demand on reproductive investment is compensated by increased energy acquisition. In contrast, the results show that males are smaller because increasing reproductive investment pays off less in males than in females. The finding can likely be generalized to many cases where mating opportunities are limited in space and time. Since eco-genetic models include the inheritance of traits with frequency-dependent se- lection, they are therefore a powerful tool to study FIE and the model is therefore fitted to the estimated evolution of plaice and the evolu- tionary impact of different management scenarios is assessed. The so called maximum sustainable yield MSY and the corresponding maximal fishing mortality F MSY evolve along with the population life history and occur both at lower levels after a while. The currently estimated refe- rence points are thus not sustainable but slipping targets. By a dome- shaped exploitation pattern being protective for larger fish the evolu- tionary trends could be reversed and with it the negative evolutionary impact. However, the evolutionary impact trades off against the short term loss in yield: by protecting the large fish the evolutionary impact is minimized but the instantaneous yield is decreased too – the optimal strategy for a given time horizon is somewhere in between. In summary, the thesis provides evidence that FIE should be taken into account for sustainable management. Contents Introduction 9 I: Empirical evidence from single traits 31 Chapter 1: Fisheries-induced evolutionary changes in maturation 33 reaction norms in North Sea sole Solea solea Chapter 2: Fisheries-induced evolution in growth, maturation and 45 reproductive investment of the sexually dimorphic North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) II: Empirical evidence from correlated traits 55 Chapter 3: Multiple growth-correlated life history traits estimated 57 simultaneously in individuals Chapter 4: The study of plastic and evolutionary responses in 75 correlated life history traits III: Modeling adaptation evolutionarily 107 Chapter 5: An evolutionary explanation of sexual size dimorphism: 109 predictions from a quantitative model calibrated to North Sea plaice Chapter 6: A reconstruction of the fisheries-induced evolution of 141 North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) IV: Implications for management 159 Chapter 7: Evolutionary impact assessment of commercial fisheries: 161 a case study of North Sea flatfish fisheries management Synthesis 181 Acknowledgements 199 Introduction DIVERSITY AND EVOLUTION Since the introduction of the concept of natural selection (Darwin 1859), science has been based on the assumption that individual traits that define individual biological fitness, i.e. the ability to survive and produce offspring, are inherited from parent to offspring. Individuals with higher fitness are more likely to survive and produce more offspring, and consequently have greater relative representation in a population. The individual fitness depends on the environ- ment and thus, because the environment is shaped by other organisms inhabiting it, on the dis- tribution of other trait variants in the environment, i.e. fitness is frequency-dependent (Metz, et al. 1992). The optimal strategy therefore always depends on the environment and its changes in space and time. Since the environment is always changing, the trait variants unlikely ever reach evolutionary equilibrium. They rather steadily evolve towards always changing evolutionary op- tima. This is how species adapt to the changing environment and evolve into other species, and this mechanism has supposedly generated all biodiversity we observe. With the discovery of the DNA (Watson and Crick 1953), the unit of inheritance of traits could be analyzed more closely. The phylogenetic relatedness or distance between organisms could thereafter be defined more precisely by their genetic similarity or dissimilarity respectively ob- tained from genome sequencing. However, this revealed contradictions with the former classifi- cation of species, which was mainly based on morphology, making the classification of species ambiguous and giving raise to various concepts of taxonomy (e.g. Kullander 1999, Domis, et al. 2003, Staley 2006). A main insight was that genetic diversity between species is continuous or gradual, most visibly revealed by the simpler organisms, and it is on this continuous gene pool that natural selection acts and shapes the genetically discrete beings. The formulation of evolutionary processes depends on what is considered to be the unit of selection and the unit of evolution. The gene might be the selfish instance operating as if aim- ing to reproduce itself as much as possible, using individuals as vehicles of transport (Dawkins 1976). However, the fitness of the individual determines whether genes survive and to which extent they are reproduced along with the individual in the selection process (Dover 2000). For the traceability of the selfish gene view one would therefore need to know the functioning of the genes up to their effects on reproduction and survival in individual phenotypes. Because this information is usually not available, the individual, being defined