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Delayed Credit Recovery in Croatia: Supply Or Demand Driven?

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Delayed Credit Recovery in Croatia: Supply Or Demand Driven? Working Papers W-45 Delayed Credit Recovery in Croatia: Supply or Demand Driven? Mirna Dumičić and Igor Ljubaj Zagreb, January 2017 WORKING PAPERS W-45 PUBLISHER Croatian National Bank Publishing Department Trg hrvatskih velikana 3, 10002 Zagreb Phone: +385 1 45 64 555 Contact phone: +385 1 45 65 006 Fax: +385 1 45 64 687 WEBSITE www.hnb.hr EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Evan Kraft EDITORIAL BOARD Ljubinko Jankov Gordi Sušić Maroje Lang Boris Vujčić EDITOR Romana Sinković DESIGNER Vjekoslav Gjergja TECHNICAL EDITOR Božidar Bengez The views expressed in this paper are not necessarily the views of the Croatian National Bank. Those using data from this publication are requested to cite the source. Any additional corrections that might be required will be made in the website version. ISSN 1334-0131 (online) WORKING PAPERS W-45 Delayed Credit Recovery in Croatia: Supply or Demand Driven? Mirna Dumičić and Igor Ljubaj Zagreb, January 2017 ABSTRACT V Abstract In order to enhance the understanding of credit cycle dy- namics in Croatia we explore the evolution of credit demand and credit supply of corporates and households in Croatia and identify their determinants based on the switching regression framework. These results are crosschecked by the insights from the bank lending survey. The conducted analysis shows there are both supply and demand-side factors that limit the possibility of intensifying household and corporate credit ac- tivity. However, a more pronounced drag seems to be coming from subdued demand, which is greatly influenced by the un- favourable domestic macroeconomic environment and particu- larly GDP developments. This suggests that it is not unusual that credit recovery is still missing, but also confirms that the scope for monetary policy to stimulate lending is limited. Keywords: credit supply, credit demand, households, corporates, Croa- tia, switching regression framework JEL: E44, G21, G28 Delayed Credit Recovery in Croatia: Supply or Demand Driven? Contents Abstract v 1 Introduction 1 2 Credit developments in Croatia 1 3 Disequilibrium model in the market of corporate and household loans 4 4 Estimation results 6 4.1 Corporate sector 6 4.2 Households 7 5 Robustness checks 7 6 Conclusion 10 7 Appendix: Data description and statistical information 11 8 References 14 INTRODUCTION 1 1 Introduction After the prolonged recession, at the beginning of 2015 and analyse the evolution of credit demand and supply of credit recovery was still not on the horizon in Croatia, and households and corporates in Croatia from the third quarter countercyclical monetary policy efforts to boost lending were of 2001 until the first quarter of 2015, by using the switching constrained by various factors. In the post-crisis period, cred- regression framework. This paper broadens the research it activity in Croatia slowed down considerably from the pre- conducted by Čeh et al. (2011) on the disequilibrium in the crisis levels. Household loans had recorded negative annual market of total domestic and foreign loans by an analysis of rates of change since mid-2009, while corporate loans started individual corporate and household sectors. The paper also to decrease at the end of 2012. Although the literature does covers a longer data sample and accounts for monetary policy not provide an unequivocal proof of the nature of the relation- actions. The model results are accompanied by narrative ship between credit activity and economic growth or pace of findings on credit supply and demand obtained from the bank recovery, the identification of the determinants of credit supply lending survey (BLS). The results show there are factors that and demand is important for understanding the capacity and limit the possibility of intensifying credit activity for households scope of monetary policy to influence loan dynamics. The fact and corporates on both the supply and the demand side, with a that credit activity slowed down despite the expansive mone- more pronounced drag coming from subdued demand. tary policy and high banking system liquidity raises the ques- This paper is divided into five parts. After the introduction, tion as to whether the reasons for such developments lie on the a brief overview of credit activity and its main determinants supply side. For instance, banks might be less inclined to offer in Croatia from 2001 to the beginning of 2015 is given. Part loans and might tighten lending standards if they conclude that three presents the approach applied in the model for the analy- increased risk of default cannot be sufficiently compensated sis of the determinants of credit supply – the credit market dis- by increased interest rates (Ghosh, 2009). The problem could equilibrium model. The fourth chapter presents the results of also be on the demand side as a result of negative current real the model estimations and describes the evolution of surplus or developments, structural problems in the balance sheets of the deficit credit supply through time; for the recent period, these private sector and pessimistic expectations regarding future results have been supplemented by the findings from the BLS. economic developments. This equivalence problem has become The paper ends with concluding considerations in the context known as the supply-versus-demand puzzle (Bernanke, 1993). of the capacity of monetary policy to influence the revival of The main goal of this paper is to identify the determinants credit activity in the current phase of the economic cycle. 2 Credit developments in Croatia The first part of the period from 2001 to 2015 in Croatia supported by strong foreign capital inflows that financed grow- was marked by rapid credit growth, followed by a significant ing domestic consumption. Significant parts of these inflows deceleration and stagnation in the post crisis period (Figure came from cheap sources of financing, the parent banks of the 1). A similar pattern has been observed in other Central and largest domestic banks. In such circumstances, credit poten- Eastern European countries (CEEC) accompanying their con- tial was growing and lending conditions were relaxed (Figure vergence towards the old EU Member States before the crisis, 2, left panel), which was enhanced by the strong competition and the process of “sobering up” after the onset of the global among foreign banks. At the same time, a gradual reduction in financial crisis. During this time span, various determinants of interest rates on household loans from the relatively high levels credit supply and demand interacted and changed courses of in the early 2000s took place. Additional fuel to credit growth action. came from the low initial level of household indebtedness. The Credit growth in Croatia in the pre-crisis period was macroeconomic environment was characterised by positive Delayed Credit Recovery in Croatia: Supply or Demand Driven? 2 CREDIT DEVELOPMENTS IN CROATIA Figure 1 Credit and economic activity in Croatia: from developments in the labour market, increasing consumer con- boom to a halt fidence and general expectations of growth in future income, partially stimulated by the real estate boom (Figure 3). There- 149 310 fore, in that period demand for and supply of credit were both 142 280 strong and on an upward path. However, after the slump in Croatia during the prolonged 250 index, 2000 = 100 135 recession from 2009 onwards, the credit dynamics changed considerably. The banks’ asset quality started deteriorating, af- 128 220 fecting their profitability (Figure 2, right panel), while the pri- 121 190 vate sector, burdened by high indebtedness and balance sheet weaknesses, became less desirable as a debtor. Consequently, 114 160 banks’ risk aversion increased significantly. Simultaneous- 107 130 ly, the decline in economic, especially in investment activity, dampened corporate credit demand. Unfavourable trends in 100 100 the labour market resulted in a continuous and gradual delev- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 eraging of households. From 2008 till 2015 households cumu- GDP – left Credit to private sector – right latively reduced their level of indebtedness, while corporates started the same process a bit later (Figure 4, left panel). Sources: CBS and CNB. Overall, the changing interplay in many of the credit de- mand and supply determinants from the early 2000s to 2015, iure endin rate country ri and an perormance 300 140 600 140 250 120 500 100 120 200 400 80 150 300 100 60 100 200 40 80 index, 2008 = 100, 4-quarter moving average 2008 = 100, index, 4-quarter moving average 2008 = 100, index, 50 20 100 60 0 0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Lending interest rate – corporates Lending interest rate – households Credit potential Return on banks' assets EMBI spread for Croatia – right Non-performing corporate loans – right Note: Detail description of variables is shown in Appendix. Sources: CNB and J. P. Morgan. Figure 3 Confidence, wages and real estate boom bust 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 index, 2008 = 100, 4-quarter moving average 2008 = 100, index, 4-quarter moving average 2008 = 100, index, 60 40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Consumer confidence Business confidence Hedonic real estate price index Wage bill Note: Detail description of variables is shown in Appendix. Sources: CNB and CBS. Mirna Dumičić and Igor Ljubaj CREDIT DEVELOPMENTS IN CROATIA 3 and the evident structural break in credit and GDP develop- of domestic banks. This was particularly the case during the ments in 2009, present a strong motivation for assessing the period in which the CNB’s measures for limiting domestic evolution of credit demand and supply.
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