VOL 23 SEPTEMBER 2019 FIND OUR VOICES CONTENTS Tung Chee Hwa Chairman China-United States Exchange Foundation Editors Zhang Ping Hong Chang Special Advisor Cover Story Zhu Yinghuang Tung Chee-hwa Assistant Editor US-China Relations: Now and Peng Hui Beyond 7 China-US Focus Digest is a bi-monthly magazine of exclusive commentaries on International Voices 2 China-US relations. The articles express views of influential opinion leaders and scholars in China and the US on the issues faced by the two nations. Development or Disaster? @ China-United States Goh Chok Tong 43 Exchange Foundation, 2019 For comments, please send to Learning from Japan’s Trade [email protected] Tensions with the U.S. Yasuo Fukuda 48 Solving Global Problems Collectively Jean Chrétien 52 US China Policy www.chinausfocus.com Follow us on Facebook and Twitter: @ChinaUSFocus Trump Won’t Settle for a Bad Deal Edwin Feulner 11 Finding Our Voices and Deeper Dialogue With special thanks to Chatham Strategies and Shanghai Institutes for International Studies Neil Bush 15 for their supports to www.chinausfocus.com and China-US Focus Digest China Is a Stakeholder in America’s Success David Firestein 19 CONTENTS Win-win or Lose-lose? Security Dimensions Qi Zhenhong 24 Cutting Losses and Preparing to Recover What Would We Do Differently If We Knew Chas Freeman 26 What Happens in 2039? William Owens Another 40 Years of Stable China-US 84 Relations Possible Security Matters Zhou Wenzhong 30 Karl Eikenberry 86 Patience, Positivity and Persistence: Keys to a Successful Relationship Max Baucus 33 People-To-People Exchange We Are at a Critical Point William Daley 37 Optimism and Faith in the People Jan Berris Not Really a Trumpian Issue 88 Vali Nasr 40 Texas Leading The Way Macro & Micro The American Heartland Will Lead the Way in Ties with China Has the United States Suffered a Loss in 3 Trade with China? Bob Holden 93 Zeng Peiyan 54 Next Generation of City Leaders Steps Up False Narratives on Trade with China to the Plate Stephen Roach 59 Jimmy Flannigan 95 US Demands Are Unreasonable. Here is Why. Texas Vying for a Bigger Share in Trade Zhang Xiaoqiang 64 with China Jeff Moseley Bilateral Investment Under Threat 98 Ma Xiuhong 68 Interviews A Weak Global Economy Needs Policy Coordination Between China and the US Zhu Guangyao 73 100 A New Round of Technology Revolution is Upon Us. Let’s Collaborate. Panel Discussion Highlights Wang Changlin 75 A Confidence-Building, Durable and Enforceable Trade Deal 102 Jeremie Waterman 78 United States Leads to Global Economic Imbalances Liu Shangxi 83 US-CHINA TRADE AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS: WHAT NOW, WHAT NEXT 4 5 9-10 July 2019 Auberge Discovery Bay Hotel Discovery Bay Hong Kong EDITOR'S NOTE Fostering Dialogue and Constructive Engagement Zhang Ping The U.S.-China Trade and Economic Rela- We hope the wide spectrum of perspectives tions: What Now, What Next forum that took represented in this special edition will help place in Hong Kong on July 9-10 this year bridge the widening gap between China and was unique in convening diverse and influ- the US, especially during this contentious ential voices from both the United States period, and make a strong case that the and China, as well as third-party stakehold- US-China relationship continues to be the ers from countries such as Japan, Canada, most consequential in the world that can- and Singapore. It was also special because not afford to go astray. the forces in support of a healthy US-China 6 relationship were able to come together in The following transcripts have been edited the midst of rising tensions and mistrust for style and brevity. For the full conference between the two countries. Despite the real report, please visit: danger of a severe disruption to the bilater- www.cusef.org.hk/2019forum al relationship, global leaders convened for candid and constructive conversations to help find a path forward. In this special edition of the China-US Focus Digest, we aim to share the insights of the distinguished speakers and panelists with a broader audience. This issue includes transcripts of speeches by luminous inter- national leaders such as Former Prime Min- ister of Canada Jean Chretien, Former Prime Minister of Singapore and Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong, and Former Prime Minister of Japan Yasuo Fukuda, as well as former Chinese and American diplomats, cabinet ministers, business leaders, and re- nowned scholars. CHINA-US FOCUS DIGEST VOL 23 SEPTEMBER 2019 COVER STORY US-China Relations: Now and Beyond If the idea of “decoupling” from China that is on the rise in the United States were to come to fruition, it would yield devastating results for the US, China, and the world. Only if China and the US take advantage of their complementary trade relationship will the global community realize its most prosperous state. Tung Chee-hwa The recent meeting in Osaka The modern-day US-China rela- Vice Chairman of CPPCC between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi tionship began 47 years ago in Chairman of CUSEF gives us hope that the US-Chi- February 1972, when President na trade relationship can move Nixon visited Chairman Mao in forward again. Immediately be- Beijing. But it was not until 1979 fore the Osaka meeting, many of that US-China diplomatic rela- us sensed that the people of the tions were formally established 7 United States and China, par- by President Carter and Chair- ticularly in the business world man Deng Xiaoping. Since that of the two countries, want to time, eight presidents of the see progress being made in the United States and five leaders discussions. Trade negotiation of China have pursued policies is always difficult, and maybe to ensure that the relationship there will be set-backs, but in moves forward positively. the end, I believe that common sense will prevail. Today, however, there are peo- ple in the US who, for one rea- My assignment today is to talk son or another, advocate a so- about US-China relations – called “decoupling” of US-China where we are now, and where relations. They argue that China we want to be in the future. has taken too much advantage Trade negotiation is always difficult, and maybe there will be set-backs, but in the end, I believe that common sense will prevail. WWW.CHINAUSFOCUS.COM COVER STORY of the United States. This is an import- for her to eventually reach developed ant topic, and, as someone who has nation status. This may take some time. spent half of his life promoting US-Chi- na relations, I think you know where I There have been concerns in the Unit- stand, but please allow me to make my ed States about China’s rapid rise. It is case. To start, I think that it is import- asked, “Would China seek to become a ant for everyone to understand China’s hegemonic power and pose a threat to priorities, from where she came, and the United States?” From this point of where she plans to go from here. view, what is noteworthy is that, histori- cally, at the pinnacle of its power during Over the past 40 years, China has made the Tang Dynasty 1,300 years ago and great strides in improving its econo- during the Ming Dynasty 650 years ago, my and the welfare of its people, with China was the largest economy in the hundreds of millions of Chinese being world, with over 30% of the world’s total pulled out of poverty. Never in the his- GDP for years and years. During those tory of mankind have so many people periods, China never sought to expand been pulled out of poverty in such a her borders, export her method of gov- short time. erning, spread any extreme ideologies, or conquer other civilizations, although 8 Nevertheless, at the end of 2018, per she would put up walls to keep invad- capita income in China was still less ers out. My point is that China does not than $10,000, as compared to the US’s seek to become a hegemonic power. It $60,000. Indeed, the country still has is not in China’s DNA to do this. some ways to go to satisfy the Chinese people’s aspirations for a better life. In Today China preaches peace and shared order to achieve that, internationally, prosperity for all nations. The expan- China will continue to collaborate with sion of China’s economic activities gives other nations in the areas of trade, rise to common prosperity to everyone. commerce, investment, etc. Domesti- A case in point: every year since 2008, cally, she will pursue the development China’s economic expansion contribut- of science, technology, and innovation, ed over 30% to the growth of the global all while continuing down her path of economy year in and year out. It is, in- reform and opening up her economy to deed, China’s hope that the expansion the outside world. The ultimate aim is of her economy is not only good for her people, but also for the rest of the world. I believe that, when it comes to scientists, engineers, and Furthermore, let me justify why a good innovators, one-plus-one is relationship between the US and China is not only good for the two countries, always more than two. but also good for the world at large. CHINA-US FOCUS DIGEST VOL 23 SEPTEMBER 2019 COVER STORY Yes, it is for real. Why should I believe it? It is for China’s own interest too.