IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI groups Israel |Iraq |Kurds |Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) |Islamic mutual economic interests andtrade. the whole region, encouragingpolitical dialogue through border policy solutions could have positive spillovers across equilibriums andgranitic hostilities. Today, thesecross- energy cooperation asaway tobypassprecarious regional since the60s.Theyhave identified military, intelligence and escalating conflicts andreligious andideological cleavages relations. Israeli-Iraqi Kurdish relations have nestled amongst could beone of thefirstcountries to upgrade ties to open and one canimaginethat in theevent of asecession, Israel ongoing battle for Mosul: Israel backsErbil’s nationalist claims planned tobeheldin2016andthenpostponed due tothe could betheindependencereferendum for Iraqi Kurdistan Middle Eastintheyears tocome. Another factor of instability apart of historical boundaries anticipate avery different of theArab upheavals, theonslaught of ISISandthecoming The regional transformations resulting from theoutbreak ABSTRACT by Aldo Liga in aTransforming Middle East Israel andIraqi Kurds keywords IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI 2 f24.my/1Is9CGq. * 3 2 1 The Kurds, theworld’s largestnation without astate, and influence equilibria inthe whole region. political, economic andcultural affinities, could opennewspaces for cooperation regional order inatheoretical post-ISIS scenario. Indeed, multifaceted relations, the Kurds –may prove tobeasignificant element inprefiguring a lesspolarised come. Theenduring bonds betweentwo minorities intheregion –theJews and of historical boundaries anticipate avery different Middle Eastinthe years to the onslaught of theIslamic State of Iraq andal-Sham (ISIS),and thecoming apart The regional transformations resulting from theoutbreak of theArab upheaval, Introduction by Aldo Liga* in aTransforming Middle East Israel andIraqi Kurds Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East . internationales (CERI) in Paris. in (CERI) internationales derecherches Centre the as such think-tanks, and ENGIE Commission European at the experiences previous after for working IMPACT He is initiatives Florence. in Sciences Political of School Alfieri” “Cesare the from abachelor’s and East) Middle and energy on international sevres-modern-turkey-middle-east-borders-turkey. Policy Foreign in East”, ‘independence’ problematic. So they joined up to fight with the Turkish national movement.” Ibid. the up movement.” tonational with fight joined they So Turkish problematic. ‘independence’ of British-dominated form found this others nationalists, to Kurdish some appealed this While control. British under been crucially, have would, Treaty Sèvres the in envisioned state Kurdish today. would we to do well The realize ways in identities national do transcend and can loyalties political that fought treaty. It’s areminder Kurds to the upend alongside Ataturk many at Sèvres, more thantheycould chew,” three years later, when the “European powers began to suspect they had bitten off Sèvres madeprovision for aKurdish state within theboundaries of Turkey but, Turkey, northern Iraq, northern Syria andnorth-western Iran. The1920Treaty of of political factions, acontiguous areainfour different countries –south-eastern Paper prepared for the Istituto affari Internazionali (IAI). Internazionali affari Istituto for the prepared Paper Aldo Liga holds a master’s degree in International Security from Sciences Po Paris (with a focus afocus (with PoParis Sciences from Security International in degree amaster’s holds Liga Aldo
Sarah Leduc, “The Kurds: The World’s Largest Stateless Nation”, Stateless France24 World’s in The Kurds: Largest “The Leduc, Sarah However, it is worth mentioning that “when European imperialists tried to create a Kurdish state state to aKurdish create tried imperialists European “when that mentioning However, worth it is Nick Danforth, “Forget Sykes-Picot. It’s the Treaty of Sèvres That Explains the Modern Middle Middle Modern the Explains That of Sèvres Treaty It’s the Sykes-Picot. “Forget Nick Danforth, , 10 August 2015, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/10/sykes-picot-treaty-of- 2015, , 10 August 2 theTreaty of Lausanne frustrated theseaspirations. 1 inhabit, fragmented indozens , 30 July 2015, http:// July, 30 2015, 3
IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI 3 the legitimisation of “outcast nations” questioned borders andproactive international consent could theoretically allow might beone of the firstcountries to upgrade ties into open relations. Onceagain, a number of timesandit islikely that intheevent of aterritorial secession, Israel Mosul campaign: Israel’s top officials have backed Erbil’s claims for independence Kurdistan wasinitially plannedtobeheldin2016 but hasbeenpostponed due tothe regional equilibria and granitic hostilities. An independence referendum for Iraqi energy cooperation, the two peoples have identified away precarious tobypass relationship at the government and business levels since the 60s.In military and official relationship betweenthe two nations, they have beenpursuingadiscreet official bodies, co-opting political factions, these bonds suggest alternative policy up common grounds, bettingon historical andcultural affinities, bypassing cleavages, economic stagnation andrisinginequalities intheMiddle East:building Israeli-Iraqi Kurdish ties nestle among escalating conflicts, religious andideological The Kurds represent 15 to 20 per cent of the Iraqi population. Regional Government (KRG), basedinthecity of Erbil, in1992. 3 (Summer 2014), http://www.meforum.org/3838. 2014), (Summer 3 and Kurds areminorities (roughly 15million Jews and30million Kurds worldwide) independence andaneconomic partnertoalleviate internal instability. BothJews Kurds seetheJewish state asapotential ally inorder tolegitimate theirpolitical the Kurdish minority as abuffer againstcommon adversaries, while the Iraqi 6 5 4 seeking toestablish“asecond Israel” intheMiddle East. defence ministerAbd al-Aziz al-Uqayli (1965-1966), blamedtheKurds of Iraq for “It isasifhistory isrepeating itself”: fifty years ago, with these words, Iraqi thing Kurds have toanindependent state,” and political autonomy, only theIraqi Kurds have partially achieved the“closest gave up theirnationalist claimsandlimited theiractions todemandingcultural Compared tothe other Kurdish minorities spreadacross theregion, who basically Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 9 8 7 east-29702440. Stateless Nation”, cit. Nation”, Stateless World’s The Kurds: Largest “The Leduc, Sarah Germany. in 800,000 including Europe, Western in Kurds million roughly are 1.6 there Institute, Kurdish Paris to the According million. only 4.3 are they to Baghdad but according inhabitants, million 5.3 claims KRG The Syria. in 1to 2million and Turkey, in Kurds million 15 are Iran There in 7to 8million million. 40 and 20 of between population Persians, andTurks), anddelegitimised intheirquest for astate of theirown. (unique, incultural andethnic terms,compared totheneighbouring Arabs, that have beentraumatised bypersecution andwarstopreserve theiridentity
Ibid.
Middle East Quarterly East Kurds”, Middle in the and Israel between Ties “Surprising Bengio, Ofra BBC News Kurds?”, BBC in the are “Who Although there is no ethnic census on the Kurds by country, estimates indicate that they form a form they that indicate country, estimates by Kurds on the census no ethnic is Although there Ibid. Sarah Leduc, “The Kurds: The World’s Largest Stateless Nation”, Stateless World’s cit. The Kurds: Largest “The Leduc, Sarah , 14 March 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle- 2016, , 14 March 9 andtheirright toself-determination. 4 theestablishment of theKurdistan 8 Although thereisno 5 Israel has identified , Vol. 21, No. , Vol. 21, 7 6
IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI 4 2015), p. 15. p. 2015), President of theIraqi Kurdistan region since2005, February 2016,MasoudBarzani,leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and decision through areferendum on theirfate.” time hascome andthesituation isnow suitable for theKurdish people tomake a August 2015, http://www.middleeasteye.net/node/45933. 2015, August Eye Middle East in Presidency”, to Extend on Barzani Calls Council KRG Mount as “Tensions MacDonald, Alex region. the affecting instability growing the and successor clear of any lack the as yet, nodate hasbeengiven. authorities thereferendum should have taken placebefore theendof theyear but, of thepeople at theappropriate timeandconditions.” about independenceandfor theKurdish political leadership toexecute thewill fledged statehood, but rather “toknow thewill and opinion of the Kurdish people 11 10 called Arab Spring, theMiddle East hasexperienced a“Kurdish moment.” Since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003 and the outbreak of the so- the unravelling of thepost-World War Iorder 1. Beyond conventional alliances: Israel andIraqi Kurdistan in are significant inrethinkingtheareanearfuture. end to Sykes-Picot. The last section concludes explainingwhy Israeli-Kurdish ties essentially through asort of “energy triangle” with Turkey that may signal asofter which Israeli-Iraqi Kurdish ties could play a role in a theoretical post-ISIS Iraq, peoples have managedpolitical isolation; thethirdpartillustrates theextent to cleavages andhow through military, economic andcultural cooperation thetwo second section isfocused on how Israel hashistorically played on Iraqi internal unravelling following thecollapse of Ba’athist Iraq andtheISISonslaught; the The firstpart of thepaper offers abrief introduction of how Mesopotamia is political dialogue. border economic cooperation could potentially open newspacesfor improved transformations intheyears tocome, highlighting theextent towhich cross- relationship betweenIsrael andtheKurds of Iraq akey tounderstandingregional World War I order in the region, this paper identifies in thetight but little-known political divides. Startingfrom abrief introduction totheunravelling of thepost- Middle East, bringing out different links and interconnections and scaling down solutions that could potentially convey more stability in shaping the future Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 13 12 Reuters
Ibid.
His term expired in August 2015 but presidential elections have been postponed to due 2017 to postponed been have elections but presidential 2015 August in expired term His Isabel Coles, “Iraqi Kurdish Leader Calls for Referendum”, Non-Binding Calls Independence Leader in Kurdish “Iraqi Coles, Isabel Guillaume Fourmont, “Kurdistan(s), une nation, des états?”, in Moyen-Orient états?”, in des nation, une “Kurdistan(s), Fourmont, Guillaume , 2 February 2016, http://reut.rs/1QFyi5q. 2016, , 2February 12 He didnotrefer toproclaiming full- 11 stated on hiswebsite that “the 13 According totheKurdish , No. 26, (April-June , No. 26, 10 On1st , 17 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI 5 country andits capital, Erbil. The PUK,led byJaled Talabani, cooperation. TheKDP, headedbyBarzani,controls thenorthern partof the govern together, but theirrelationship ischaracterisedbyrivalry and intermittent Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)have emergedasthetwo strongest parties: they to theEuropean Union. Theregion operates asadefactostate, theKDP andthe the Kurds. Today, theKRG hasrepresentative offices in13countries andamission of theIran-Iraq wars(1980-1988) raisedinternational awareness of theplight of since Julysince 2014. http://www.iraqinationality.gov.iq/attach/iraqi_constitution.pdf. of the Republic of Iraq 4). Constitution (Art. Iraq”, of languages official two the are language Kurdish the and language Arabic 116); “The (Art. administrations” local as well as governorates, 16 15 14 Al-Anfal Campaign andtheKurdish genocide reached only bytheIraqi Kurds, with theestablishment of theKRG in1992.The mentioned above, thegoal tosetup an independent Kurdistan waspartially geographical areathat fell into thesovereign spaceof four separate states. As Treaty of Lausanne, thelandinhabited by thispeople wassplit into arecognisable guarantor of Kurdish people’s freedom. However, following thesignature of the obtained amandate from theLeague of Nations over Palestine, andtherole of After World War Iandthedissolution of theOttoman Empire, theUnited Kingdom Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 17 which underlie how politics isconducted intheregion. Sulaymaniyah, isdominant inthesouth. “Feudalism” and“tribalism” areconcepts along with its existingauthorities, asafederal region” (Art. 117). independent andfully sovereign state” (Art. 1)recognising“theregion of Kurdistan, breakup of thecountry, andthe2005Constitution defined it as“asingle federal, During the2003invasion of Iraq theinternational community opposed the to thetraditional parties. which, undertheleadership of Nawshirwan Mustafa, leads theofficial opposition people died. In 2009athirdplayer emerged,theMovement for Change(Gorran) 1997 thetwo parties wereembroiled inabloody civil war:between3,000 and5,000 government. TheKRG hasdeveloped oil andgasfields andfacilities, “assumedde the oil extractedintheNorth of thecountry must bemanagedbythecentral and, more broadly, over economic issues. Baghdad insiststhat therevenues from mainly on thecontrol over theregion’s energysector, but also on thepublic payroll, with Baghdad have proliferated sincethenewstructure of thestate wassetup, divergences politiques”, in Moyen-Orient in politiques”, divergences 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4877364.stm. News Kurds”, BBC in the against “Anfal: Campaign See people. own its against weapons chemical use to government first the became Iraq programme.” cleansing ethnic “ain systematic perished people Watch Rights up to to Human 100,000 According 1988. in culminated and 1989 and 1986 between conducted actions of military to aseries given name the is Qur’an, of the sura eighth the Spoils,” “the Anfal, Party. Socialist of Ba’ath Iraq’s Arab Bureau Northern of the general
“The federal system in the Republic of Iraq is made up of a decentralized capital, regions, and and regions, capital, up of adecentralized made is of Iraq Republic the in system federal “The President of Iraq from 2005 to 2014. Fuad Masum, from the same party, has been head of state of state head been has party, same the from Masum, to Fuad 2014. 2005 from of Iraq President Martin van Bruinessen (interview by Saïda Bédar), “Le peuple kurde: identité nationale et et identité nationale kurde: peuple “Le Bédar), Saïda by (interview Bruinessen van Martin The campaign was commanded by Saddam Hussein’s cousin Ali Hassan al-Majid, secretary al-Majid, secretary Hassan Ali cousin Hussein’s Saddam by commanded was campaign The , No 26, (April-June 2015), p. 20. p. (April-June 2015), , No 26, 14 that occurredinthefinal stages 16 From 1994toNovember 15 basedinthecity of 17 But legal disputes , 24 June , 24 , 2015, , 2015, IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI 6 No. 3(May/June 2014), 139-148. p. June 2014, http://reut.rs/1pS1Ekq. a newpolitical force intheMiddle East”: and theJewish people into anembryonic relationship that might yet develop into years of theIraqi Ba’ath (1968-2003). “Events have conspired tobringtheKurdish military trainingandhumanitarian aidhave beenimplemented sincetheearly two nations has structured the framework of their bilateral relations: intelligence, 22 21 20 19 18 political equilibria or disturbing the relationship with Baghdad. relationship due tothemutual necessity of notupsetting domestic andregional Empathy between the two peoples has not been demonstrated in an open, defined “It istimetohelp them,” sheconcluded. ancient, democratic, peace-loving people that have never attacked any country.” friendly towards Israel,” defining the Kurds as “a partner for the Israeli people,” “an establishment of aKurdish state that separates Iran from Turkey, one which will be Israeli Justice MinisterAyelet Shaked supported thenecessity to“openly call for the quest for statehood: justafew weeksbefore Barzani’s latest claimfor independence, Kurdish minorities of theirown. Conversely, the Israeli government endorses their their aspirations for independence,especially neighbouring countries with large Kurds infacingthisthreat, international andregional powers have always opposed borders andrevisiting thepost-World War Iorder. Despite theefforts of the Iraqi after theonslaught of ISISintheregion, arisewhich iserasingtheSykes-Picot February 2016 wasnotthefirsttimeBarzanicalled for anon-binding referendum facto control over disputed lands Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 24 23 lobby Kurdish interests inWashington andabroad.” lawfareblog.com/node/9676. Blog Lawfare in for Kurdistan”, Iraqi Not Statehood, “Stalemate, Natali, Denise Gorran. KDP,and PUK, between divisions geographical reflecting politics, internal on KRG impact their and of Arabization” legacies historical and multi-religiousand character, “oil-rich multi-ethnic their contentious given is territories, status their Determining governorates. can only harmthem.” “our silence –inpublic, at least –isbest.Any unnecessaryutterance on ourpart no official ties with thecountry. Amos Gilad, asenior Israelidefence official, said like 30 other United Nations memberstates, does notrecogniseIsrael andhas http://www.jpost.com/Experts/The-Kurds-and-Israel-Straws-in-the-wind-361248. January 2016, http://toi.sr/1S2dF52. 2016, January permeable boundaries andeconomic associations. cornerstones of anewregional order, mostly fashioned byregional autonomies, boundaries in the area, this empathy could possibly be transformed into one of the
Ibid.
Ofra Bengio, “Surprising Ties between Israel and the Kurds”, cit. the and Israel between Ties “Surprising Bengio, Ofra Among others, in Kirkuk (described as “our Jerusalem” by Jalal Talabani), Nineveh and Diyala Diyala and Nineveh Jalal Talabani), by “our Jerusalem” as (described Kirkuk in others, Among The Jerusalem Post Jerusalem Wind”, the The in in Straws Israel: and Kurds Teller,Neville “The Dan Williams, “Israel Tells U.S. Kurdish Independence Is ‘Foregone Conclusion’”, Reuters ‘Foregone in Is Independence Kurdish Tells U.S. “Israel Williams, Dan Marina Ottaway and David Ottaway, “How the Kurds Got Their Way”, Affairs Their Foreign in Got Kurds the “How Ottaway, David and Ottaway Marina The Times of Israel Times The in Kurdistan”, Indipendent for an Calls “Justice Minister Pileggi, Tamar 22 Therefore, avery discreetbut steady dialogue betweenthe 18 andcreated acohort of influential supporters to 20 23 inaperiod of potential redrawing of 24 19 , 1 November 2015, https://www. 2015, , 1November 21 , 2July 2014, Indeed Iraq, , Vol. 93, , 20 , 20 , 26 , 26 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI 7 official bodies andco-opting minorities such asthe Kurdsand Berbers, considered played on historical andcultural affinities with non-Arabs intheregion, bypassing “periphery alliance” strategy adopted byDavid Ben-Gurion. minority asort of ally inits hostile environment, establishinglinkssincethe benefit from theirreciprocal understanding. Israel hasidentified inthe Kurdish 30 29 28 27 26 25 Hezbollah, thethreat of which jeopardises thenorthern border with Lebanon. Iraq thwarts Iran’s granddesign of aShi’a crescent linkingIran, Iraq, Syria, and members of theIsraeli cabinetcould beexplainedbythefactthat afragmented state. The timing of the most recent pro-Kurdistan declarations released by many threats looming largeintheregion andthepolitical isolation of theJewish threat by the Government but more as a strategic partner in order to dilute the positive shiftinimproving Israeli security: aKurdish state isnotconsidered asa Conversely, anindependent Kurdistan inthenorth of Iraq could represent a of its “scarce tonon-existent directpolitical influence intheregion.” undertaken “amostly risk-adverse, minimalist andpro-status quo policy,” mindful In facingtheregional transformations resulting from theArab upheaval, Israel has security and foreign policy paradigm 2.1 “Customising” theregion: An independent Kurdistan in theIsraeli realist affairs 2. Managingpolitical isolation: “outcast nations” andforeign Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East c8UQl. options-in-a-changing-Middle-East. Regions/Middle-East-and-North-Africa/Israel-Palestine/Publications/Israel-alternative-regional- Reports NOREF in East”, Middle aChanging in Options Regional Yossi Alternative Alpher, process.” “Israel: peace Arab-Israel the by replaced ways many in was and 1983 and 1973 to between ahalt “ground doctrine alliance periphery original The state. Jewish the of existence to the states of Arab opposition the to counteract Ethiopia) and Iran pre-revolutionary attitude” of thecountry toward political shiftsinits volatile neighbourhood: vulnerability andregional isolation” strengthensthe“conservative andcautious approach, which stemsfrom the“mutually reinforcing notions of geopolitical Guardian FRIDE Policy Briefs Policy FRIDE generally, bythechaosof theArab neighbourhood, enhanced by “diversions anddivisions of the wars inSyria and Iraq” and,more Both theJewish State andtheKRG strategic positions were,in different fashions, more antagonistic actors.” any shifts in power could worsen Israel’s delicate regional position by empowering stability andstatus quo needtobeunderstoodasareflection of theconcern “that
Ibid., p. 4. p. Ibid., Benedetta Berti, “Seeking Stability: Israel’s Approach to the Middle East and North Africa”, in in Africa”, North and East Middle to the Approach Israel’s Stability: “Seeking Berti, Benedetta Ibid., p. 1 and 2. 1and p. Ibid., The The in Neighbourhood’”, of Arab Chaos by ‘Enhanced Position Strategic “Israel’s Black, Ian This doctrine called for Israel to develop close alliances with non-Arab states (such as Turkey, as non-Arab (such with states alliances close to develop for Israel called doctrine This , 9July http://jd.fo/ 2014, Forward in Kurdistan”, Independent Wants an Israel Yossi Alpher, “Why , 11 June 2015, https://gu.com/p/49yvj/stw. June 2015, , 11 , No. 198 (March 2015), p. 1 and 6, http://fride.org/publication/1254/. 6, 1and p. 2015), (March , No. 198 27 29 andboththecountries could , June 2013, p. 1, http://noref.no/ 1, p. , June 2013, 30 TheJewish state has 25 Thisrealist 28 26
IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI 8 is aforegone conclusion.” our eyes and it would appear that the creation of an independent Kurdish state America’s position on theindependenceof theregion, “Iraq isbreakingup before Israel Foreign Minister(2009-2015), didnothesitate tourgeJohn Kerry tochange attended byhundreds of people. day memorial celebration on the occasion of the death of President Shimon Peres, Shimon Peres”, in International Peres”, in Shimon Business Times Approach to the Middle East and North Africa”, cit., p. 4. p. cit., Africa”, North and East Middle to the Approach Israel’s Stability: “Seeking Berti, Benedetta Authority). Palestinian of the exception the (with limited extremely are countries MENA other the with ties commercial the partners, economic regional European Union. no real alternative exists)andthevery close economic ties toboththeUSand Israeli foreign projection isthestrategic alliance with theUnited States (towhom every Kurdish statehood andsupports a united Iraq. Indeed, at thecentre of the the partnersof theJewish state which, at least officially, denies the legitimacy of nature of theirrelationship ismaintained at a“clandestine” level, soasnottohurt July 2014. July gu.com/p/3qgjz. 35 34 33 32 31 proved political commitment andareworthy of independence.” support theKurdish aspiration for independence,” “anation of fighters [who] have (INSS), Israeli PrimeMinisterBenjamin Netanyahu declared“weshould […] In June 2014,talking at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies certainly among themostexplicit support within theinternational community. The Israeli public commitment towards the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan is as “proxies.” Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 38 37 36 especially intheenergy, construction, communication and security sectors. Middle East Monitor Middle East in Netanyahu addedwith ahint of empathy, “theydeserve it.” New York, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015, p. 343. p. 2015, York,New Macmillan, Palgrave the Arab Uprisings beyond Activism and Marginalized Popular Resistance East. in Contentious Politics the (ed.), Middle Gerges Fawaz A. in Aftermath”, Uprisings’ the in Minorities of Amazigh Jay, Cleo Breakthrough Israel.” the in “A Spring: community Berber Jewish African North alarge is there and Berbers African North with ties cultural and historical strong very have Jews Sephardi of co-optation: case interesting an is This state. Hebrew the with relationship diplomatic any have doesn’t officially Algeria “whereas 2012 in Israel in visit went official for an state, which isdemocratic.” the United States, hetoldObamathat “theKurds have, defacto,created theirown not possible without “massive” foreign military intervention. Duringa meeting in endorsed theindependenceof Kurdistan too,assessingthat aunified Iraq was
Ibid.
For instance, the founder of the Movement for the autonomy of Kabylie, Ferhat Mehenni, Movement autonomy Ferhat for Mehenni, of founder the the the of Kabylie, For instance, While Jordan and Egypt are the “long-held pillars of Israel’s approach to regional security” and and security” to regional approach “long-held of Israel’s the pillars are Egypt and Jordan While Ilene Prusher, “The (Soon-to-be) State of Kurdistan and Its Friends in Jerusalem”, in Haaretz Jerusalem”, in in Its Friends and (Soon-to-be) of Kurdistan State “The Prusher, Ilene Saleh Al-Naami, “Strategic Dimensions of the Relationship between Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan”, Kurdistan”, Iraqi and Israel between Relationship of the Dimensions “Strategic Al-Naami, Saleh Dan Williams, “Israel Tells U.S. Kurdish Independence Is ‘Foregone Conclusion’”, ‘Foregone cit. Is Independence Kurdish Tells U.S. “Israel Williams, Dan Julie Lenarz, “Iraqi Kurds Reject Anti-Israel Rhetoric to Hold Vigil for ‘Friend of Kurdistan’ of Kurdistan’ to Hold Vigil for Anti-Israel Rhetoric ‘Friend Reject Kurds “Iraqi Julie Lenarz, The Guardian The in Independence”, Kurdish Backs Minister Prime “Israel’s 31 Israeli companies areinvesting heavily intheKurdish region, 33 , 1 September 2015, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/?p=19922. 2015, , 1September 36 37 Shimon Peres, president of Israel from 2007to2014, TheKurdish city of Duhok recently organised atwo- 38 , 30 September 2016. September , 30 35 , 29 June 2014, https:// June 2014, , 29 Avigdor Lieberman, , Basingstoke and and , Basingstoke 34 Amonth later 32 The , 2 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI 9 in 2003Israeli expertspenetrated Northern Iraq todrill peshmergas almon.co/2khm. http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/23042016. Saddam Hussein’s regimeinBaghdad and,more recently, on Iran.” forces of Iraqi Kurdistan. of Iraqi forces techniques. 43 42 41 40 39 training “in return for theirhelp in smuggling out Jews intelligence veterans reported that cooperation has taken the form of military contributing to securetheir pathway to independence. A number of Israeli significant domains, empowering the Kurds of Iraq incore sectors, and Although officially minimised,relations with the Jewishstate have covered quest for legitimacy 2.2 Military, economic and cultural cooperation: Israel in theIraqi Kurds’ the “historical day for thetwo brotherly andprosecuted nations.” 2011, Barzaniput emphasis on thecommon fate of thetwo peoples, talking about elusive. WhenthePalestinian National Authority opened its consulate inErbil in Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Indeed, theKRG position over theconflict would seem The Israeli-Iraqi Kurdish relations could also bereadthrough thelens of the Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 46 45 44 two or threemillion andtried tosetup astate for them.” were without acountry while you [theWest] looked for otherpeople who areonly Minister of Regional Cooperation, claimed it was “not logical that 40 million Kurds the Kurdish andthePalestinian issues have beenaddressed:Ayub Kara,Deputy Dimensions of the Relationship between Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan”, cit. Kurdistan”, Iraqi and Israel between Relationship of the Dimensions “Strategic Al-Naami, Saleh Iran. with borders the towards transferred were when they 60s, of the against theArabs.” separate from theArab states: “Kurdish independencewould beapoisoned sword against Kurdish self-determination because it could encourageothercountries to Organisation (PLO)Executive Committee, SaebErekat, hastaken aposition triangle. Recently Al Arabiya revealed that amemberof thePalestine Liberation and theriseof theIslamic State have brought newdynamics into thisambiguous ask that anIsraeli consulate beestablishedinErbil aswell. Barzani haddeclaredthat when theIsraeli Embassyopened inBaghdad hewould ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2005/6/independentstate187.htm. the first Arab president to visit Kurdistan as a semi-autonomousas a region. visit Kurdistan to president Arab first the was Abbas Mahmoud 2009 In http://ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2011/11/state5614.htm. 2011,
Akiva Eldar, “How to Revive the Arab Peace Initiative”, in Al-Monitor in Initiative”, Peace Arab the to Revive “How Eldar, Akiva Ekurd Daily Ekurd in Kurdistan”, Iraqi in Consulate Opens “Palestine Mohammed, Fryad The Kurds played a very important role in helping Israel to displace the Jews of Iraq at the end end at the of Iraq Jews the to displace helping Israel role in important avery played Kurds The Peshmerga means “one who confronts death” or “one who faces death”: they are the military military “one death” or “one the death”: who are confronts who means faces they Peshmerga “Israel Backs ‘Urgent’ Kurdish Statehood, Top Israeli Official Says”, inRûdaw Top Official Israeli Statehood, Kurdish ‘Urgent’ Backs “Israel BBC News BBC Forces’”, in Kurdish ‘Train “Israelis Abdelhadi, Magdi Ekurd Daily Ekurd in Barzani”, Massoud Israel, with Relations Support Kurds “Iraq’s Dan Williams, “Israel Tells U.S. Kurdish Independence Is ‘Foregone Conclusion’”, ‘Foregone cit. Is Independence Kurdish Tells U.S. “Israel Williams, Dan 46 According toLeFigaro, Israeli intelligence agents werebasedinthe 41 At thesametime,Israel blamesWestern countries for theway , 20 September 2006, http:// 2006, September , 20 42 43 , 22 December 2015, http:// 2015, December , 22 aswell asinspyingon 40 TheArab upheavals , 23 April 2016, 2016, April , 23 , 8 June 2005, http://, 8June 2005, 45 44 39 , 29 November November , 29 inshooting Reportedly, Previously 10 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI No. 26, (April-June 2015), p. 66. p. (April-June 2015), No. 26, http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/15050. expulsion”: entity recognizesandseeks to correct thehistorical injustices of theJewish Kurdistan’s ties with Jews andIsrael, marking “thefirsttimearegional political Sarah Leduc, “The Kurds: The World’s Largest Stateless Nation”, Stateless World’s cit. The Kurds: Largest “The Leduc, Sarah Institute. Kurdish Paris of the head Nezan, Kendal says culture”, and but on language religion, Jerusalem Post Jerusalem production of dairyproducts.” of tapping into Israeli expertiseinfields like agriculture, poultry farming,and the to “enhance cooperation betweenIsrael andtheKRG, andexplore thepossibility visited theAfikim kibbutz inthe Jordan Valley area of the West Bank,with theaim KRG Vice President Kosrat Rasul andMinisterof Agriculture Jamil Sleiman Haider, implementing thisstrategy. According toYedioth Ahronoth, adelegation led by the aimof attaining food self-sufficiency by2013. economy, in2009theKRG launched theStrategic Planfor Agriculture with the sovereignty of KRG asaregional body. As partof theeffort todiversify its In thevision of MasoudBarzani,food security isone of thepillars for stabilising part of Israel’s struggle againstIran’s nuclear energyprogram. region, recruiting andtrainingIranian dissidents inspy-craftandsabotageas Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5364982.stm. 2016 visited Israel for the firsttimeinthis role. Mamsani wasappointed director of theJewish Affairs Directorate andinMarch Endowment andReligious Affairs dealing with religious minorities: SherzadOmer in theregion passingalaw that establishesseven departments intheMinistryof tie. In May 2015,theIraqi-Kurdish parliament legitimised theJewish presence Cultural diplomacy is an additional, significant axis of the Israeli-Iraqi Kurdish 2016, http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=460467. 2016, cemeteries andphysical remindersof theJewish presence: mentioning thepreservation andreconstruction of theremainingsynagogues, Jerusalem Post Jerusalem IntelNews respective military cultures. is aninteresting similarity betweenthetwo peoples andacommon point inthe presence of women servingalongside meninthearmed forces of bothcountries displaced, was honoured. expulsion of Kurdish Jews inthe1940s, when 150,000Jews from theregion were
Although 94 percent of Iraqi Kurds are nominally Muslim, “Kurdish identity is not based on not based is identity “Kurdish Muslim, nominally are Kurds of Iraqi percent Although 94 Joseph Fitsanakis, “Israeli Mossad Training Iranian Exiles in Kurdistan: French Newspaper”, in in Newspaper”, French Kurdistan: in Exiles Iranian Training Mossad “Israeli Fitsanakis, Joseph The Expulsion”, The in 70 Jewish Years since Marking Ceremony Memorial First Holds “Kurdistan The The in Kurdistan”, from Report History, to Its Jewish Out “Reaching Mamsani, Omer Sherzad Tamara Zieve, “Kurdistan Official Launches Appeal to UN to Save Jewish Tomb”, Jewish UNSave to to Appeal inThe Launches Official “Kurdistan Zieve, Tamara Yahya Dbouk, “An Israeli Dairy Farm in Iraqi Kurdistan?”, in Al-Akhbar in English Kurdistan?”, Iraqi in Farm Dairy “AnYahya Israeli Dbouk, Pierre Blanc, “Kurdistan: la terre et l’eau au cœur des stratégies de pouvoir”, in Moyen-Orient depouvoir”, in stratégies l’eau des et au terre cœur la “Kurdistan: Blanc, Pierre The Jerusalem Post Jerusalem Model”, The in East Middle as Israel See Iraq in “Kurds J. Frantzman, Seth , 11 January 2012, https://intelnews.org/2012/01/11/01-906. 52 , 24 October 2015, http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=429963. 2015, October , 24 , 4 December 2015, http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=436306. 2015, , 4December at thebeginningof December 2015,the70thanniversary of the 53 Among the other tasksof the Directorate, it is worth 48 50 51 TheDirectorate aimsat fostering 49 Israel hasplayed arole in 54 many urbanrenewal 47 Thesubstantial , 22 February 2013, 2013, February , 22 , 15 July , 15 , 11 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI 2015, http://bv.ms/1P5emcv. 2015, began in 2014, nearly 1.8 million Iraqis and Syrians have fled to Iraqi Kurdistan, Moyen-Orient secretly keeping up theirtraditions. families are believed to be still living in Iraq: they converted to Islam, but are Religious Affairs incharge of promoting religious tolerance, some 200-300 Jewish Israel. According toMariwan Naqshbandi, who leads anoffice intheMinistry of to 300,000Jews of Kurdish origin intheworld, but mostof themdecidedtolive in toward autonomy before theonslaught of theIslamic State. 58 57 56 55 Post Jerusalem the fall of theOttoman caliphate intheearly twentieth century.” in the Middle East to have made a plausible claim totheoffice [of Caliphate] since territory tomake acredible claimtobeastate. […It] istheonly insurgent group tactics, andclever recruitment, theIslamic State hadthemanpower, money, and Iraq. Bolstered by “a combination of government neglect, careful planning, brutal nature could become an important vector of legitimacy inatheoretical post-ISIS This intense anddiscreetdialogue iscontinuing despite theriseof ISISandits very 3.1 Thestruggle against theIslamic State 3. Israeli-Iraqi Kurdish relations envisioning apost-ISIS Iraq such astheErbil City Centre MasterPlan. projects that include thepreservation of theJewish heritage have beenlaunched, Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 61 60 59 atfp.co/2d6o3h7. http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=432756. Post Jerusalem The in Kurdistan?”, in Jews There Are “So Solomon, Ben Ariel of return. law to the thanks to Israel immigrated of them but most to Judaism connection family adistant with families dozen several were there region: the in synagogues no operating are there that stressing Kurdistan, Iraqi in community of Jewish of asort existence current the contested to predict. ethnic andreligious conflicts andtoterritorial fragmentations which aredifficult the way inwhich atheoretical defeat of ISIS is managedcould lead toanewsetof campaign inIraq. Eachpartyintheanti-ISIS fight ispursuing its own aimsand ethnically Kurdish, weremurdered bythe Islamic State inthefirstphase of its Islamic State Islamic by number of analysts andpundits. increasing its population by 30 percent. www.ibtimes.com/node/2154230. InternationalIsrael-Ties, in Ahead”, Lie But Challenges Business Times
Joost Hiltermann, “The Perils of aPost-ISIS Policy Perils Iraq”, Foreign in “The Hiltermann, Joost Among others, Mordechai Zaken, head of Minority Affairs in the Israeli Public Security Ministry, Ministry, Security Public Israeli the in Affairs of Minority head Zaken, Mordechai others, Among Caecilia Pieri, “Villes du Kurdistan d’Irak: une multiplicité d’identités et de patrimoines”, in in multiplicité depatrimoines”, et une d’identités d’Irak: du Kurdistan “Villes Pieri, Caecilia Roughly 1.5 million displaced Iraqis and 280,000 Syrian refugees according to the KRG. to the according refugees Syrian 280,000 and Iraqis displaced million Roughly 1.5 Michael Kaplan, “Iraqi Kurdistan’s First Jewish Leader Wants to Revitalize Judaism and Boost Boost and Judaism Wants to Revitalize Leader Jewish First Kurdistan’s “Iraqi Kaplan, Michael The ISIS Apocalypse. The History, Strategy, and Doomsday Vision of Vision the History,William Strategy, The and Doomsday McCants, Apocalypse. ISIS The Bloomberg View Kurds”, Iraq’s Bloomberg by in In Taken for Refugees Looms “Crisis Lake, Eli 61 , New York, St. Martin’s Press, 2015, p. 153. p. 2015, Press, York,, New Martin’s St. Indeed, otherShi’ite andSunni provinces had already considered steps , No. 26, (April-June 2015), p. 36. p. (April-June 2015), , No. 26, , 1 August 2016, http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=462958. 2016, , 1August 57 56 However, theseestimations arechallenged 55 60 It isthought that therearefrom 200,000 At least 5,000 Yazidis, predominantly , 22 September 2016, http:// 2016, September , 22 , 23 October 2015, http:// 2015, October , 23 , 12 November 2015, 2015, November , 12 58 Since thecrisis , 30 September September , 30 59
12 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI (Iraq-Turkey Crude Oil Pipeline, Iraq’s largest crude oil export line), guaranteeing pipeline from theTaq Taq oil field, in Kurdistan, totheKirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline The Financial Times Financial Supplies”, The in demand inthat period, shipped from Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. the beginningof May andAugust 11[2015],” 77percent of theaverage Israeli and oil companies imported more than19[million] barrelsof Kurdish oil between political fissures. Denise Natali, “Stalemate, Not Statehood, for Iraqi Kurdistan”, cit. Iraqi for Kurdistan”, Statehood, Not “Stalemate, Natali, Denise fissures. political to to contribute overcoming proved has and ambitions KRG to secure essential is cooperation economic cross-border that, Despite threat. security national amajor as perceived historically is Kurdistan of Iraqi independence the minority: Kurd its Turks”, calls “Mountain Ankara what the with struggles of renewed unleashing the and of Turkey, of borders aredrawing entailing www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=413056. Post Jerusalem The in Kurdistan”, from oil imported of Israeli Majority “Report: Udasin, Sharon Haifa. of city the oil field to Kirkuk the from apipeline commissioned Mandate British the Indeed, 1948. in of Israel” State of the establishment the even precedes accelerating “theKurdish polity’s fragmentation,” and unmonitored procedures), it risksmakingtheKurds aless effective partner, aid hasbeenchannelled (following uncoordinated, unbalanced, unconditional 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 and international recognition. creating new“factson theground” that have strengthenedits internal sovereignty by peshmergashave proven tobedecisive inthestruggle againsttheCaliphate, asked tocontribute) hasbeenarmingIraqi Kurds sinceJune 2014.Actions led Loosely organised, theanti-ISIS coalition (towhich Israel wasnotpublicly Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East to turnthepeshmergasinto aprofessional force. Middle East Reports Middle East Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the PUKinto greater relianceon Iranian military assistanceandon theTurkish elite power struggle. Thearmsweregiven disproportionately totheKDP, pushing framework agreements, theKurdish political systemisshiftingagaintoanintra- relations werevalued at 10billion dollars in2013. population, hasdeveloped strong cooperation with Erbil since2007:trade Iraqi Kurdistan asapotentially dangerous precedent given its own largeKurdish The Turkish government, despite thefactthat it haslong opposed anautonomous https://www.foreignaffairs.com/node/1114708. fight against the Caliphate. and energyimports arecrucial tounderstandingtheIsraeli involvement inthe Israel isfinancingthe Kurdish resistanceessentially through economic cooperation, and risksunderminingKurdish aspirations. environment isprobably notconducive toasuddendeclaration of independence
David Sheppard, John Reed and Anjli Raval, “Israel Turns to Kurds for Three-Quarters of Its Oil of Its Oil Turns for to Three-Quarters Kurds “Israel Raval, Anjli and Reed John Sheppard, David ICG in ICG Conflict”, Inviting IS, Fighting Kurds: Iraq’s Group (ICG), “Arming Crisis International International Crisis Group (ICG), “Arming Iraq’s Kurds: Fighting IS, Inviting Conflict”, cit., p. ii. p. cit., Conflict”, Inviting IS, Fighting Kurds: Iraq’s Group (ICG), “Arming Crisis International Denise Natali, “Stalemate, Not Statehood, for Iraqi Kurdistan”, cit. for Kurdistan”, Iraqi Not Statehood, “Stalemate, Natali, Denise It is worth considering that Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan “have a history in the oil trade that that oil trade the in ahistory “have Kurdistan Iraqi and Israel that considering It worth is Turkey fears that an independent Iraqi Kurdish state could quickly expand to include parts to parts include expand could quickly state Kurdish Iraqi Turkey independent an that fears Foreign Affairs Snapshots Affairs Foreign in Regression”, Peshmerga Fantappie, “The Maria , No. 158 (12 May 2015), p. i, https://www.crisisgroup.org/node/405. i, p. 2015), May (12 , No. 158 , 23 August 2015, http://on.ft.com/1JdEjR0. 2015, August , 23 66 According to the Financial Times, “Israeli refineries 62 However, because of theway inwhich thismilitary 65 inflamingcompetition over coordination. This 68 Ankara agreedtoconnect anew 63 andjeopardising theattempt 64 After aperiod of strategic , 24 August 2015, http:// 2015, August , 24 , 14 June 2015, , 14 June 2015, 67
13 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.672599. cit. billion dollars. Supplies”, cit. Supplies”, 73 72 71 70 69 terms andconditions that will help it todeclareits independencefrom Baghdad” fact that Israel ismainly interested “inenablingtheErbil government tosecurethe could prove to be true assets in reframing regional equilibria. However, despite the security andforeign policy paradigm andthemultifaceted relations with theKurds and theincreasinginstability intheregion areat thecentre of theIsraeli realist As mentioned above, theriseof ISIS,thedismantling of thepost-World War Iorder, claims toexclusive control of Iraq’s natural resources.” into theIraqi national account inNew York, definitely challenging “Baghdad’s the depositing of oil payments into aKurdish bankaccount inTurkey, rather than Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 75 74 in Europe. took tankers toAshkelon where oil wasloaded into storage facilities toberesold Kurdistan”, cit. for Iraqi Not Statehood, “Stalemate, Natali, Denise exports.” KRG more directly and agreement, the of nature and terms “the to affect risks Erdogan” Tayyip Recep and Barzani between deal private a largely are which ties, energy of KRG-Ankara nature personal and opaque “the that considering means theonly country that hasbeenbuying more Kurdish oil.” Markets”, in Reuters Markets”, in cit. , 16 May 2016. , 16 May Haaretz Iraqi Kurdish relationship will probably bemaintained. Iraqi Kurdistan continues tobepartof Iraq theclandestinenature of theIsraeli- region that advocate the unity of Iraq, such as the United States, Turkey or Iran. If in apost-ISIS scenario, thecountry does notwant toantagonise otherallies inthe Israel toinfluence US foreign policy. for thewaragainstIslamic State andrelying on theability of thelobby andof Kurdish delegation metwith Israel lobbyists inWashington, seekingfinancial aid lobby intheUnited States isprobably anothervector of support: recently, asenior against ISIS,byfundingKurdistan’s warefforts: private companies) hasindirectly contributed totheinternational campaign cooperation among Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey andIsrael, theJewish state (andits
, 24 August 2015, 2015, August , 24 Kurds”, Iraq’s Haaretz in from of Its Oil Three-quarters Imports Israel “Report: Zvi Bar’el, “Dreaming of Independence, Iraqi Kurds Reach Out to Jews and Israel for Support”, in in for Support”, Israel and to Jews Out Reach Kurds Iraqi of Independence, “Dreaming Bar’el, Zvi Saleh Al-Naami, “Strategic Dimensions of the Relationship between Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan”, Kurdistan”, Iraqi and Israel between Relationship of the Dimensions “Strategic Al-Naami, Saleh David Sheppard, John Reed and Anjli Raval, “Israel Turns to Kurds for Three-Quarters of Its Oil of Its Oil Turns for to Three-Quarters Kurds “Israel Raval, Anjli and Reed John Sheppard, David Dmitry Zhdannikov, “Exclusive: How Kurdistan Bypassed Baghdad and Sold Oil on Global on Global Oil Sold and Baghdad Bypassed How Kurdistan “Exclusive: Zhdannikov, Dmitry Saleh Al-Naami, “Strategic Dimensions of the Relationship between Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan”, Kurdistan”, Iraqi and Israel between Relationship of the Dimensions “Strategic Al-Naami, Saleh Marina Ottaway and David Ottaway, “How the Kurds Got Their Way”, cit. Furthermore, it is worth worth it is Way”, Furthermore, Their cit. Got Kurds the “How Ottaway, David and Ottaway Marina 72 Italy, France andGreeceemergedasbig buyers, but “Israel isbyno 71 Furthermore, Israel isabasefor Kurdish oil exports: some buyers , 17 November 2015, http://reut.rs/1kC6K6e. 2015, , 17 November 74 70 thesales werereportedly worth 1 69 Thankstothisenergy 73 Thepro-Israel 75
14 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI 2015), p. 9, http://brook.gs/2bPq1gS. p. 2015), particularly toPUKpeshmergas andShi’a militias. Erbil provinces. Tehran hasprovided economic, political, andsecurity assistance, influence hasbecome stronger, especially along theborder with Suleymaniya and Natali, “Stalemate, Not Statehood, for Iraqi Kurdistan”, cit. for Kurdistan”, Iraqi Not Statehood, “Stalemate, Natali, Denise Baghdad.” from apart revenues and access oil export to and ability KRG’s leverage the affect could region Arab Sunni or astrengthened of ties, Sunni-Shi’a bridging tensions, intra-Kurdish PKK-Turkeyinfrastructure, tensions, Erdogan’s political status, Iraqi government stabilization, July http://www.middleeasteye.net/node/3396. 2014, 77 76 in thisregardwill implement theZionist regime’s special goals intheregion.” Netanyahu on supporting theIraqi Kurdistan’s independence,any steps taken Boroujerdi, hasrecently declaredthat “given therecent position taken by parliament’s National Security andForeign Policy Commission, Alaeddin rapprochement betweentheKRG and Israel. TheChairmanof theIranian influence Tehran isdeveloping over theregion shrinksthemargins for areal Israel –Iraqi Kurdish ties have already hurt theIslamic Republic andthestrong vulnerable thanever before.” and awarzone, thelandlocked Kurdistan Region hasbecome more financially a single transit route andalegally contentious pipeline runningthrough Turkey developed strong cooperation since2007,however, “bybecoming fully reliant on their domestic or foreign policy goals. As mentioned above, Ankara andErbil have guarantee its sovereignty, thus influencing its different communities according to and Tehran arecommitted toweakening Baghdad but at thesametimethey Turkey andIran arethetwo largestexternal tradingpartnersfor theKRG. Ankara “cross thethresholdseparating full autonomy from independence” Turkey andIran: prospects for independencearetempered bythefactthat ifthey ISIS hasalso deepenedits regional dependencies, particularly on neighbouring Government cannot become economically autonomous and the struggle against reduce thefreedom of action for anindependent Kurdistan. TheRegional expand markets intheGulf andthegrowing financial instability KRG iswitnessing recognition, the vital necessity to do business with neighbouring countries and to independence. Thelong, costly anduncertainprocess of obtaininginternational economic, andpolitical constraints could undermineBarzani’s claimfor The Israeli endorsement may prove tobeaprecipitous move. Indeed, legal, 3.2 Aconstrained and fragile independent Kurdistan Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 80 79 78 would reverberate on thedegreeandnature of future Kurdish autonomy. decisions could trigger reactions from surrounding regional powers and this could follow, beingperceived asadomestic security threat bybothstates. Unilateral
“Any change in Ankara-Baghdad relations, Iranian-Turkish capabilities, access to pipeline to Iranian-Turkish pipeline access relations, capabilities, Ankara-Baghdad in “Any change Middle East Memo Middle East in East”, Middle Changing the and “Israel Rabinovich, Itamar Ibid. Ibid. Middle East Eye Middle East in Welcome Support”, Kurds all Israel’s Iraqi “Not Wilgenburg, van Wladimir 78 With theriseof theIslamic State, theIranian 79 , No. 34 (January (January , No. 34 76 retaliation 77 , 14 80
15 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI to declare full-fledged independence, remains indoubt. Although at the moment Kurdish nationalism seemsunable since the 60s could have a significant impact if Iraq’s future as an intact nation strengthening of political, economic andcultural ties betweenthetwo peoples Kurdish counterparts. rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/26082016. believe thetimingisnotideal for theprocess togo ahead. supports theKurdish bidfor independence,while 34percent of therespondents Institute of Media andPolitical Research (IMPR),over 82percent of eligible voters and Human Security (CPHS)of theAmerican University of Kurdistan andthe 84 83 82 81 “undisputed right.” not hinderaKurdish independencereferendum andseesself-determination asan Haidar Al-Abadi, Iraq’s PrimeMinister,hasrecently saidthat hisgovernment will to upgrade ties into open relations, recognisingtheKurdish State. putting anendtoIraqi territorial integrity, Israel might beone of thefirstcountries Israel’s relationship with its Middle Easternenvironment” are building common ground but “complexity andambivalence areinherent in Israel could beaprecious ally inthisprocess. As mentioned above, bothsides North of Iraq inatheoretical post-ISIS phaseshould betaken into consideration. regional actors on its future, thedevelopment of amore autonomous region inthe the very fragile nature of anindependent Kurdistan andtheinfluence of ahost of components of theKurdish mosaic, bothinIraq andinthewhole region, aswell as Despite thetensions intermsof vision andlong-term goals among thedifferent independence Conclusion: Thesystemic implications of theKurdish bidfor realize theirimmature fantasies intheregion.” allow theZionist regimeandenemies of aunified Iraq tocarryout theirplots and never allow thedismantling of Iraq: “undoubtedly thevigilant Iraqi people will not Foreign MinistrySpokesperson, Marzieh Afkham, hasaddedthat Tehran would Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 87 86 85 node/26661. cit. Welcome Support”, Israel’s Kurds all Iraqi “Not Wilgenburg, van it”. about Wladimir don’t talk [Israelis] they if better would be and it this from not benefit will Kurds Ithink Turkey even maybe reaction. anegative would have Iran, countries, Islamic away. countries, alot of Arab geographically Moreover are they because Kurds for the do nothing can Israelis] [the “they Eye, East told Middle Othman Mahmoud MP Iraqi former As to autonomy region. steps Kurdish for the future the could endangered connection” Ibid.
“Poll Shows 82 Percent Support for Kurdish Independence”, in Rûdaw in Independence”, for Kurdish Support Percent 82 Shows “Poll Ofra Bengio, “Surprising Ties between Israel and the Kurds”, cit. the and Israel between Ties “Surprising Bengio, Ofra Although there are remarkable beneficial effects of the Israeli-Kurdish relationship, the “Israeli “Israeli the relationship, Israeli-Kurdish the of effects beneficial remarkable are Although there Itamar Rabinovich, “Israel and the Changing Middle East”, cit., p. 1. p. cit., East”, Middle Changing the and “Israel Rabinovich, Itamar “Iraq’s PM Sees Kurdish Referendum As ‘Undisputed Right’”, in Rûdaw in Right’”, ‘Undisputed As Referendum Kurdish PM Sees “Iraq’s “Maria Fantappie, Specialist in Kurdish Issues”, in ARTE in Issues”, Kurdish in Fantappie, Specialist “Maria 86 According toarecent poll, conducted bytheCenter for Peace 83 However, under thecurrent circumstances, thesteady 84 should the KRG secede from Baghdad, 81 , 3 October 2014, http://info.arte.tv/en/ 2014, , 3October 87 Although thereferendum , 20 August 2016, http:// 2016, August , 20 82 , 26 August 2016, http:// 2016, August , 26 andthisimpacts its 85 16 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI with thedismantling of Syria looming large. cit. via Turkey. eastern Mediterranean, probably opening theway for Israeli gassupplies toEurope cooperation toexploit thesignificant natural gasreserves recently discovered inthe http://wp.me/p4ja0Z-yOI. dominance. ethnic institutionalised with democracy combines that system political a defines and of Haifa, months, potentially opening newinteresting scenarios. Interviewed bytheIsraeli addition tothis,Baghdad andErbil will probably reachanewoil deal inthecoming encouraging political dialogue through mutual economic interests andtrade.In ethnic andsectariandivisions, could have apositive spillover inthewhole region, Picot.” interests, especially in the oil and gas industries, may signal a softer end to Sykes- zones that straddle borders andtranscendoldhostilities. [...]mutual economic David and Marina Ottaway, an alternative to the status quo, “forging new economic the oil now travelling across the Kurdish-Turkish frontier represents, according to revolutions andclaimedsecessions. Othersignificant changesmay affect thearea: that lie inbetween.Theregional systemisnotonly underminedbycivil wars, already contributing toeconomic andpolitical cooperation among thecountries to predict, multifaceted relations, shared concerns, and historical similarities are 90 89 88 rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/200820162. “antisolutionism” isolation and increasing its influence across the region, in a moment of growing system, a clearer partnership between the two states could be set up, reducing Israeli event of a secession, the establishment of aconfederation or of atruly federal is non-binding andwill notdirectly lead toadeclaration of independence,inthe Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 93 92 91 gs/2aXfzCe. of its oil. this recovered harmony could simplify theexchanges andsecuretheshipment interested inthenormalisation of relations betweenIsrael andTurkey since countries isboundtointensify cross-border cooperation. TheKRG iscertainly standoff betweenTurkey and Israel. And therecent reconciliation betweenthetwo among Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey andIsrael was set up despite thesix-year diplomatic Kurdistan’s warefforts. It is worth considering that thissort of “energy triangle” Prospects”, in Reuters in Prospects”, establishment of two “ethnic democracies” permeable boundaries andeconomic associations. Indeed, despite thefactthat the less dominated byoldhostilities anddeepfissuresthanbyregional autonomies, be a significant element inprefiguring a less polarisedregional order: an order
Marina Ottaway and David Ottaway, “How the Kurds Got Their Way”, Their cit. Got Kurds the “How Ottaway, David and Ottaway Marina Ercan Gurses and Jeffrey Heller, “Israel, Turkey Restore Ties in Deal Spurred by Energy Energy by Spurred Deal in Heller,“Israel, Ties Jeffrey Turkey and Restore Gurses Ercan The American Interest American The in Proxy”, by Love Kurds: the and “Israel Bengio, Ofra Saleh Al-Naami, “Strategic Dimensions of the Relationship between Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan”, Kurdistan”, Iraqi and Israel between Relationship of the Dimensions “Strategic Al-Naami, Saleh Markaz Blog Markaz in Strategy”, ‘Anti-Solutionist’ “Israel’s Reeves, Brian The concept was introduced by Sammy Smooha, Professor of Sociology at The University University at The of Sociology Professor Smooha, Sammy by introduced was concept The 91 Shipped toAshkelon, Kurdish oil sustainsIsraeli imports andfunds 92 Furthermore, themendingof theriftraisesprospect of eventual 93 Thesecross-border policy solutions, bypassingtraditional cleavages, 88 , 27 June 2016, http://reut.rs/28XGNKf., 27June 2016, indealing with thePalestinians, threats from Hezbollah and 90 could also unleash reactions difficult 89 Thispartnership may prove to , 30 October 2015, http://brook. 2015, October , 30 , 18 March 2016, 2016, March , 18 17 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI the complex international projection of thetwo “outcast nations.” from thisclandestinedecades-long relationship, extolling apartnership nestled in of theunravelling of thepost-World War Iorder, both parties will certainly benefit pressing, fixingtheterms of bilateral relations is of great importance. In thecontext leaps forward or abrupt changes.Although major uncertainties intheregion are at themostmutually beneficial convergences at the appropriate moment, avoiding two parties should focus on the multifaceted nature of their relationship, aiming that “one canlook at history anddraw conclusions about thefuture.” Army Radio on thedesirability of Iraqi-Kurdish independence,Amos Gilad noted Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East 94
Dan Williams, “Israel Tells U.S. Kurdish Independence Is ‘Foregone Conclusion’”, ‘Foregone cit. Is Independence Kurdish Tells U.S. “Israel Williams, Dan Updated 13December2016 94 Today, the 18 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI June 2015,https://www.foreignaffairs.com/node/1114708 Maria Fantappie, “ThePeshmerga Regression”, inForeign Affairs Snapshots, 14 ed., Paris, Autrement, 2015 Frédéric Encel,Atlas géopolitique d’Israël. Lesdéfis d’une démocratie enguerre, 3 2015, http://almon.co/2khm Akiva Eldar, “How toRevive theArab Peace Initiative”, inAl-Monitor borders-turkey com/2015/08/10/sykes-picot-treaty-of-sevres-modern-turkey-middle-east- Modern Middle East”, inForeign Policy, 10August 2015,http://foreignpolicy. Nick Danforth, “Forget Sykes-Picot. It’s theTreaty of SèvresThat Explainsthe 18-23 nationale etdivergences politiques”, inMoyen-Orient, No 26,(April-June 2015),p. Martin vanBruinessen (interview bySaïdaBédar),“Lepeuple kurde:identité Moyen-Orient, No. 26,(April-June 2015),p.66-71 Pierre Blanc,“Kurdistan: laterreetl’eau au cœurdesstratégies depouvoir”, in publication/1254/ North Africa”, inFRIDE Policy Briefs, No. 198(March 2015),http://fride.org/ Benedetta Berti,“SeekingStability: Israel’s Approach totheMiddle Eastand Quarterly, Vol. 21,No. 3(Summer 2014),http://www.meforum.org/3838 Ofra Bengio, “Surprising Ties betweenIsrael andtheKurds”, inMiddle East March 2016,http://wp.me/p4ja0Z-yOI Ofra Bengio, “Israel andtheKurds: Love byProxy”, inTheAmerican Interest, 18 2014, http://jd.fo/c8UQl Yossi Alpher, “Why Israel Wants anIndependent Kurdistan”, inForward, 9July changing-Middle-East Africa/Israel-Palestine/Publications/Israel-alternative-regional-options-in-a- in Yossi Alpher, “Israel: Alternative Regional Options inaChangingMiddle East”, kurdish-referendum-barzani-political-survival-iraq-160204111835869.html Al Jazeera, 4February 2016,http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/02/ Ibrahim Al-Marashi, “TheKurdish Referendum andBarzani’s Political Survival”, in References Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East NOREF Reports, June 2013,http://noref.no/Regions/Middle-East-and-North- , 22December 19 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI com/1JdEjR0 Quarters of Its Oil Supplies”, in David Sheppard,John Reed andAnjli Raval, “Israel TurnstoKurds for Three- http://brook.gs/2aXfzCe Brian Reeves, “Israel’s ‘Anti-Solutionist’ Strategy”, inMarkaz Blog, 30October2015, No. 34(January 2015),http://brook.gs/2bPq1gS Itamar Rabinovich, “Israel andtheChangingMiddle East”, inMiddle EastMemo, patrimoines”, inMoyen-Orient, No. 26,(April-June 2015),p.34-39 Caecilia Pieri, “Villes du Kurdistan d’Irak: une multiplicité d’identités et de Affairs, Vol. 93,No. 3(May/June 2014),p.139-148 Marina Ottaway and David Ottaway, “How theKurds GotTheirWay”, inForeign November 2015,https://www.lawfareblog.com/node/9676 Denise Natali, “Stalemate, Not Statehood, for Iraqi Kurdistan”, inLawfare Blog , 1 of theIslamic State, New York, St.Martin’s Press,2015 William McCants, TheISISApocalypse. TheHistory, Strategy, and Doomsday Vision Basingstoke andNew York, Palgrave Macmillan, 2015,p.331-347 East. Popular Resistance and Marginalized Activism beyond the Arab Uprisings, Uprisings’ Aftermath”, in Fawaz A.Gerges (ed.),Contentious Politics in theMiddle Cleo Jay, “A BerberSpring: theBreakthrough of Amazigh Minorities inthe node/405 in International CrisisGroup (ICG), “Arming Iraq’s Kurds: Fighting IS,Inviting Conflict”, 2016, http://atfp.co/2d6o3h7 Joost Hiltermann, “ThePerils of aPost-ISIS Iraq”, inForeign Policy , 22September 26, (April-June 2015),p.15-17 Guillaume Fourmont, “Kurdistan(s), unenation, desétats?”, inMoyen-Orient , No. Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East ICG Middle East Reports , No. 158 (12 May 2015),https://www.crisisgroup.org/ The Financial Times , 23 August 2015, http://on.ft. 20 IAI WORKING PAPERS 16 | 34 - DECEMBER 2016 ISSN 2280-4331 | ISBN 978-88-9368-014-1 © 2016 IAI Latest IAIWORKING PAPERS Israel andIraqi Kurds inaTransforming Middle East www.iai.it [email protected] F +39 T +39 Via Angelo Brunetti, 9-I-00186 Rome, Italy and otherpapers’ series related toIAIresearch projects. 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