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Modelling Road Traffic Safety Indices by Means of Regression with Panel Data Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup Marzena Nowakowska

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Modelling Road Traffic Safety Indices by Means of Regression with Panel Data Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup Marzena Nowakowska Engineering Management in Production and Services Volume 12 • Issue 4 • 2020 received: 30 July 2020 accepted: 1 December 2020 pages: 40-51 Modelling road traffic safety indices by means of regression with panel data Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup Marzena Nowakowska A B S T R A C T Although the occurrence of road accidents and the number of road accident casualties in almost all Polish voivodeships has decreased over the last few years, the rate of this change varies considerably from region to region. To provide a better understanding of such a tendency, panel data regression models are proposed to conduct this pilot research which evaluates the relative performance of Polish regions in terms of their road traffic safety. Panel data are multi-dimensional data which involve measurements over time. In the research, a voivodeship is a unit analysed at a group level, whereas a year is a unit analysed at a time level. A two-way error component regression model has been applied to survey the impact of regressors, the group effects, and time effects on a dependent variable. The analysis has been conducted using data acquired from the Statistics Poland Local Data Bank website, as well as from the General Directorate for National Roads and Motorways. The panel data from 16 regions in Poland and the 2012–2018 period have been investigated. The examined models refer to road traffic safety indices defined based on the following characteristics: the number of road accidents, the number road fatalities, and the number of people injured. The results of all the three models indicate a negative effect as regards the GDP per capita, (car) motorisation rate, the indicator of government expenditure for current maintenance of national roads, and the road length per capita. A positive association has been found between the truck motorisation rate and the indicator of local government expenditure on roads. The impact of the region’s urbanisation indicators on road safety is ambiguous as, on the one hand, its increase causes a reduction in the road accident and accident Marzena Nowakowska injury indices, but, on the other hand, it produces a rise in the accident fatality index. In the models, the significance of time effects has been identified; a decreasing time Kielce University of Technology, Poland trend suggests a general improvement in road safety from year to year. Most of the Corresponding author: group effects have turned out to be highly significant. However, the effects differ as e-mail: [email protected] regards both the road accident and the accident injury indices in magnitude and ORCID 0000-0002-6934-523X direction. K E Y W O R D S Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup longitudinal data, road accidents, road accident casualties, fixed effects models Kielce University of Technology, Poland 10.2478/emj-2020-0026 e-mail: [email protected] ORCID 0000-0003-1231-8027 Introduction ties. They are the basis for exploratory data analyses Road accidents and their consequences are focused on road traffic safety diagnosis and improve- a result of failures in the road transportation system. ment, carried out on a range of granularity levels. The Their output is represented in the form of registered research of aggregated data is somewhat frequently data describing road traffic crashes and their casual- undertaken and commonly concentrated either on Brzozowska-Rup, K., & Nowakowska, M. (2020). Modelling road traffic safety indices by means of regression with panel data. Engineering Management in Production and Services, 12(4), 40-51. doi: 10.2478/emj-2020-0026 40 Engineering Management in Production and Services Volume 12 • Issue 4 • 2020 time series analyses (Dupont et al., 2014) or cross- Like in other countries, in Poland, numbers of sectional analyses (Hauer, 2010; Söderlund & Zwi, road traffic accidents, accident fatalities and injuries 1995). The latter is commonly applied to the aggre- are the main fundamentals of road safety measures at gated data, which have a panel structure (Wachnicka a macro-level analysis. According to Fig. 1, a general et al., 2018). Panel data, however, provide more trend of these measures is descending for the whole information, more variability, less collinearity among country. However, the patterns of change vary con- the variables, and more degrees of freedom (Baltagi, siderably from region to region. Certain disturbances 2001). Therefore, employing models that consider can be observed for some regions, such as the such a data structure admits an exploration of more Wielkopolskie Voivodeship (CS14) where a rapid (by issues than cross-sectional or time-series data alone 34.8%) growth of the number of accidents occurred (Kennedy, 2018). in 2017. There is also a discrepancy between the road Panel data are also called longitudinal data or accident fatalities for the Mazowieckie Voivodeship cross-sectional time-series data. They have observa- (CS16) and the remaining regions (its large popula- tions on the same organisational units across time. As tion and wealth can partly account for this). Thus, regards road traffic safety analyses, a year is a period considering the character of the aggregated informa- commonly chosen, but the possibilities of cross-sec- tion delivered for each region within a certain period, tion units are extensive, starting, for example, from it is justified to estimate a panel data model. These a set of selected road network sections (small organi- types of models enable the description of the influ- sational units), then cities to regions, countries (big ence of time and unit variations as well as exogenous organisational units) and the like. factors on the endogenous variables, i.e., measures of In Poland, the occurrence of road accidents and road safety. road accident casualties in almost all 16 voivodeships The objective of the research is to address the has decreased over the past few years, which is illus- following issues: trated in Fig. 1. The figure presents the time series of • possible existing differences in the levels of road the total number of road traffic accidents and the safety among individual regions of Poland; total number of accident fatalities. Each voivodeship • possible changes in safety levels with time and is given an identifier as follows (CS stands for Cross the nature of these changes; Section): CS1 — Dolnośląskie, CS2 — Kujawsko- • presumable relationship between selected fac- Pomorskie, CS3 — Lubelskie, CS4 — Lubuskie, CS5 tors, particularly road expenditure, characteris- — Łódzkie, CS6 — Małopolskie, CS7 — Opolskie, ing Polish regions, and the level of road traffic CS8 — Podkarpackie, CS9 — Podlaskie, CS10 — safety. Pomorskie, CS11 — Śląskie, CS12 — Świętokrzyskie, The contribution of the work is that: CS13 — Warmińsko-Mazurskie, CS14 — Wielkopol- • endogenous variables are the measures of road skie, CS15 — Zachodniopomorskie, CS16 — safety calculated in relation to road length and Mazowieckie. The last identifier has intentionally not to population because road length is a more been attributed to the largest voivodeship, both in stable characteristic for a voivodeship than the terms of area and population, thus making it the ref- number of inhabitants; erence category at the further modelling stage. Fig. 1. The dynamics of road traffic accidents (left) and the accident fatalities (right) per voivodeship in Poland in 2012–2018 Source: authors’ own elaboration 41 a) b) c) Fig.2. Illustration of the goodness of fit for the panel data models for the variables: RA100 (a), RAF100 (b), RAI100 (c) Engineering Management in Production and Services Volume 12 • Issue 4 • 2020 • unlike in other research, motorisation rates by Fixed effect panel data models with annual dum- motor vehicle type are analysed, considering mies (to capture the common trend in all the prov- cars, trucks, and motorcycles; inces) were estimated independently for urban roads • expenditure on roads is investigated, in particu- in total within a province and urban roads within the lar including structural expenditure on national capitals of the provinces in the study by Castro-Nuño roads. et al. (2018). A total number of urban road traffic The study is divided into several sections. Fol- accidents and a number of urban road traffic accident lowing the Introduction, there is a literature review of fatalities per accident were modelled using the N = 50 how panel data models are applied in the road traffic Spanish provinces and T = 11-year time units (2003– safety investigation. Then, the empirical model is 2013) data structure. The general conclusion was that explained. The next part of the work presents the data in the case of cities in Spanish provinces, a wider to be analysed and a set of potential explanatory vari- urban spread inevitably led to more severe traffic ables along with explained variables, which are cer- accidents, whereas road fatality was lower in urban tain measures indicating the level of road traffic areas with denser populations (thus, more densely safety. Then, the results and the corresponding dis- concentrated). cussion are provided regarding full and backward Annual death counts and road accident injuries selection regression models. Finally, the main conclu- were investigated with the use of one-way fixed-effect sions are presented. models, with time trend considered, for the road network as well as for the interurban part of the net- work in Spain (Albalate, 2013). In this respect, the 1. Literature review panel with N = 50 Spanish provinces and T = 21-year time units (1990–2010) was employed. The impact on Extensive research has been carried out in the road safety was evaluated in relation to selected char- field of road accidents, and it has been done in differ- acteristics of Spanish provinces and, in particular, to ent ways. The synthesis of various approaches devel- recent road infrastructure spending together with the oped in the road safety analyses, their principles, and main regulatory changes introduced. The results the characteristics of developed estimation techniques demonstrate that both regulations and road infra- are discussed for example by Laaraj and Jawab (2018), structure spending influence road safety.
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