Election Night Race Results Timeline

Election night race results timeline

NUMBERS TO REMEMBER Of the 26 Republican-held Governor’s seats up for election, 16 are battlegrounds, including 10 of the 13 open seats. Of Democrats need to flip 2 seats in the Senate and 23 in the the nine Democratic-held seats up for election, eight—all House to capture a majority. except Hawaii—are battlegrounds. Alaska’s independent- held seat is also a battleground. The GOP is defending 40 open seats in the House.

Senate Democrats must defend 26 of the 35 seats up this cycle. A FEW META QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER AS ONE WATCHES THE 36 states have Governors races; 26 held by the GOP, 9 by Democrats and 1 Independent. 15 are open seats. ELECTION RETURNS

82% of all state legislative seats are up for election. • How early in the evening will the networks make a call in the race for control of the House? Given the number of competitive House races out west, an early call seems unlikely. A call for the Democrats before 11:00 HISTORY TO CONSIDER PM EST in the race for House control would indicate that a Democratic wave has materialized and that House Midterms are historically bad for the party in power with Dems are likely to pick up at least 30-35 seats, providing average losses of 4 seats in the Senate and 30 seats in the them with a workable margin in the next Congress. House. • How closely will the results in the competitive Senate The president’s party loses an average of 350 legislative races track with the President’s popularity in those seats in midterm elections. states? In other words, to what degree are the results in the competitive Senate races a referendum on President Trump or are these results driven primarily by the THE BATTLEGROUND strength of the candidates and state-specific issues?

The Senate Democrats must defend seats in 10 states that • Will the Democrats capture as many Governors races supported Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, while as the pundits are predicting? If a strong number of Republicans must defend one seat in a state won by Clinton Democratic Governor pickups materializes, this will have in 2016. significant implications for both the 2020 presidential election and for the redistricting that will follow in 2021. The House has a field of roughly 96 seats, 88 Rs and 8 Ds, considered competitive. Of those 88 GOP held seats, 19 are open and 25 were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

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ELECTION TIMELINE hour, it’s a bad sign nationally for the GOP. A victory or a 6:00 PM — POLLS CLOSED IN MOST OF narrow loss by Hall would mean that House Republicans are INDIANA, KENTUCKY in for a very challenging evening

Polls close in those portions of Indiana and Kentucky that Jump across the Ohio river into Kentucky, and you find are in the Eastern time zone while polls in the rest of each one major race: KY-06, one of the true bellwether House state close at 7:00 PM. races of this cycle, a race where, beginning in early August, the incumbent has run a slew of negative ads against his Races to watch: IN-SEN, IN-02, KY-06 opponent . Seeking a 4th term, conservative incumbent Republican Congressman Andy Barr, the Chairman of the In Indiana, incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly Congressional Horse Caucus, faces political newcomer, faces Republican businessman Mike Braun. While an Democrat Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps Lieutenant average of the most recent polling has Donnelly modestly Colonel who was one of the first woman fighter pilots in the ahead by less than 1% (.8%), well within the margin of error, US military. most observers consider this race a toss-up. An early call for either Senate candidate would suggest that the party of the Barr calls McGrath a pro-choice feminist and long-time winning candidate is likely to have a good night. supporter of President Obama who is simply ‘too liberal for Kentucky”. McGrath calls Barr “Mitch McConnell’s Marion County will take a while to release its first count handpicked congressman”, a career politician controlled by (probably looking at 6:45pm-7pm) but should be strongly large donors who said he would vote enthusiastically to take pro-Donnelly. A weaker margin there means a good night healthcare away from over a quarter million Kentuckians. for Braun. Before we see Indianapolis report, though, we Citing her mother’s successful battle against polio, McGrath should be seeing returns in Clark, Hamilton, St Joseph and says ensuring access to health care is important and highly Marshall. The last time that he ran, Senator Donnelly carried personal to her. Clark and St Joseph and kept his margins of loss smaller in the other two. If he’s repeating that performance, he’s on his Building upon the enormous momentum that began when way to re-election, but if each county slides to the right a la her campaign announcement video went viral, McGrath Evan Bayh in 2016, the race could be over before CST-time has made this a tossup race . The 538 forecast from Nate zone counties like Vanderburgh and Laporte get to weigh in. Silver has this race moving in the past week modestly in favor of McGrath. While you’re watching Indiana, pay attention to St Joseph and Marshall for Indiana 2, incumbent Republican The initial votes to be reported in this race will likely come Congresswoman Jackie Walorski’s district, where Walorski is from Democratic leaning Fayette County. Expect McGrath, considered likely to defeat Democrat Mel Hall despite Hall’s then, to have an early lead. If she doesn’t, with Fayette considerable spending in a district that President Trump reporting (and quickly), McGrath’s odds of an upset win won by 23% in 2016. If this race is running close in the first through rural pockets are extremely small. That said, if

2 • dentons.com McGrath has a ten-point lead or greater when Fayette has Scott faces off against transgender candidate Christine reported, she may be able to blunt Republican margins in Hallquist in what most are calling a safe race, but a poll by the smaller areas. While it would not be a huge surprise if the VT Democratic Party found the Governor holding onto Barr hangs on, a win by McGrath, particularly if called early an eight point lead last month. Considering the political in the evening, would be a very good omen for House lean of the state and the general environment, a weak Democrats’ prospects nationally. performance by Scott would bode poorly, however unlikely this turn of events, for other Republican candidates who have distanced themselves from the President. Keep an eye 7:00 PM — POLLS CLOSED IN ALL OF INDIANA, on central Vermont and Rutland, the latter a comparative KENTUCKY, VIRGINIA, VERMONT, GEORGIA, Republican stronghold. SOUTH CAROLINA, MOST OF FLORIDA, MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE In neighboring New Hampshire, incumbent Republican Chris Sununu sports a polling lead and favorable approval Races to watch before 7:30pm: VA2, VA7, VA10, ratings but again faces an unpleasant political environment. VT GOV, SC01, NH01, NH GOV Watch returns from Rochester, Barrington, and Manchester counties in the first thirty minutes- most will have reported 7:00 PM — Two nationally important Governor races in by then and a roughly even performance for Sununu keeps Florida and Georgia, a key Senate race in Florida, seven him in the game, an outright edge overall in these counties competitive House races in Florida and four competitive indicates he’s winning re-election. House races in Virginia highlight this poll closing hour. Sticking around in New England, New Hampshire’s 1st Florida provides the marquee Senate race during this poll Congressional District is an important race for a number closing where incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson of reasons. First, because it has closely mirrored the national faces term-limited Republican Governor Rick Scott in “Congressional popular vote” percentage margin in each of what is the most expensive Senate race in this cycle. The the last six House elections. Second, it’s an open contest, Real Clear Politics average of polling data in the last week with no incumbent running for re-election, giving us a indicates that Nelson has a 3.2% lead over Scott, a lead possible glimpse of what may transpire in close open seat inside the margin of error. elections to come later in the evening. Watch returns from In the race to succeed Florida Governor Scott, Laconia, Rochester, Barrington, and Manchester counties Tallahassee Democratic Mayor Andrew Gillum faces Trump for clues before 7:30pm. favorite Republican former Congressman Ron DeSantis, a Leaving New England for Dixie, we encounter a trio race where mud has flown early and often with DeSantis of Virginia races and an interesting one in South arguing that Gillum is a corrupt politician who is on the Carolina. In South Carolina’s 1st district, the incumbent take and Gillum accusing DeSantis of consorting with, and Congressman Mark Sanford was defeated in the seeking the support of, racists. Republican primary by the more Trump-friendly candidate The Georgia Governor’s race, where Republican Secretary Katie Arrington. Arrington suffered serious injuries in a car of State Brian Kemp faces Democrat Stacey Abrams, has accident just after the primary, prompting her Democratic been equally heated with Democrats having just won a opponent, Joe Cunningham, to suspend his campaign out lawsuit challenging Secretary of State Kemp’s practice of of respect. They’ve been back at it since, and it remains rejecting the voter registrations of potential voters whose the strongest opportunity in the state for a Democratic applications vary in any respect from the name on the voter pickup. A win by the Democrat here, coupled with a close rolls. Kemp has indicated that he plans to supervise the victory by Democrat Amy McGrath in Kentucky 6, could election in his capacity as the Secretary of State even if this mean an early call of House control for the Democrats. race ends up going to a runoff in December. Watch Charleston County’s returns in particular to discern the way the race is turning. This race is a true tossup. Abrams is expected to run up a huge lead in the greater Atlanta area. The open question Finally while eyeballing all of these contests, take a is whether this lead will be large enough to offset Kemp’s gander at the Old Dominion where Democrats are strength in the rest of the state, particularly the rural areas. demonstrating that Virginia has become a true purple state. Four House seats are considered competitive, Two New England gubernatorial races worth watching and three will give early indicators of how much so. In are both held by Republican incumbents with positive Virginia’s 2nd, watch the quick returns out of Virginia approval ratings and leads in limited polling- and they are Beach- this region should vote strongly Republican, perfect targets for Democrats. New Hampshire features so if Elaine Luria (D) is ahead of incumbent Republican a high concentration of independents, a group who, in Congressman Scott Taylor, it’s looking like a bad night for polling, seem to currently favor Democrats. Vermont is a Virginia Republicans. Things probably won’t be looking progressive state which barely gave a county to President hot for Rep. Dave Brat in the 7th Congressional district Donald Trump, nevertheless its Republican incumbent Phil if the 2nd is terrible for Republicans- monitor Chesterfield Scott won by a convincing margin in the same year. County for a very early indicator.

3 • dentons.com The 10th Congressional district in the DC Northern In New Hampshire, returns in Portsmouth, Rochester, Virginia suburbs, where President Trump is quite unpopular, Manchester, Concord, Hanover and Dover will likely be in is the prototype of the type of Congressional district that or mostly so by now, affecting the NH-Gov and NH-01 Democrats must win to recapture the House and Democrats open seat contests. With this batch of precincts in, expect expect to win it. Recent polling supports the Democrats’ a narrow Democratic lead for Governor and a moderate confidence. While incumbent Republican Congresswoman Democratic lead in NH-01. Anything less than that means a Barbara Comstock is a strong retail campaigner who has soon-to-call victory for Governor Sununu, and the possibility raised and is spending a lot of money in her efforts to that republican Eddie Edwards could pull off a surprise in defeat Democratic candidate Jennifer Wexton, given the the First District. demographics of this district, it seems safe to say that if Wexton does not win here, the Democrats are highly unlikely to recapture control of the House. If Comstock 8:00PM — POLLS CLOSE IN MARYLAND, DELAWARE, somehow holds on in Loudon County, which reports its vote NEW JERSEY, CONNECTICUT, MASSACHUSETTS, the earliest, she has a chance to retain her seat, but if VA2 ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE, MAINE, TEXAS (MOST), and VA7 are already looking bleak for Republicans, don’t OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, NEBRASKA, MISSOURI, expect Loudon to be more cheerful. There is a fourth district MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, TENNESSEE, ILLINOIS, also worth watching, VA05, but most of its vote won’t be MICHIGAN (MOST), AND PENNSYLVANIA counted by 7:30pm. Races to watch: NJ SEN, TX SEN, MO SEN, TN SEN, IL -6, Important note for results watchers: Don’t get sucked IL-12, IL-13, IL-14, KS-2, KS-3, MI-1, MI-8, MI-11, MO-2, into watching Florida, Georgia, much of rural Virginia and NE-2, PA-1, PA-6, PA-7, PA-*, PA-10, PA-14, PA-17, CT GOV, South Carolina just yet, as they will barely be reporting until IL GOV, KS GOV, ME GOV, MI GOV, MO GOV, PA GOV after 7:30 pm. A true blue wave will be strongly evident over the next thirty minutes: NJ2, NJ3, NJ7, NJ11, PA1, PA 5, PA6, IL6, IL12, 7:30PM — POLLS CLOSING IN WEST VIRGINIA, OHIO, IL13, IL14, MI8, M11, TX7, TX32, M02, NE2, KS2, KS3, NORTH CAROLINA. ME2 will all start reporting within this time. Some, like TX7, TX32, you’ll need to wait for election day returns if close, but Races to watch: FL GOV, FL SEN, FL-6, FL-15, FL-16, FL the rest won’t have an election day vs early vote split. The 26, FL-27, WV SEN, WV-3, OH GOV, OH-1, OH-7, OH-10, U.S. Senate races should be called by now for Pennsylvania OH-12, NC-8, NC-9, NC-13 and Ohio. Michigan Governor will look obvious if the polling holds, as will Maryland, Massachusetts, Alabama, New By this point, nearly all of Florida’s early vote will be in, Hampshire, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. except Broward which always takes its sweet time. Watch both the Governor and U.S. Senate races. If Andrew For Tennessee and Texas Senate, watch the initial early Gillum and Bill Nelson are leading by wide margins, they’ll vote, which will be in from every urban, suburban, and both overcome the more Republican-leaning election day exurban county in the next 30-35 minutes (except Shelby vote. They almost certainly will be well ahead once Broward in Tennessee, which takes a while). If Democrats really are finally drops its early vote between 7:35 and 7:45pm. A close going to pull off an upset in either, it will be evident in these contest is going to drag a while through the election day early returns. If they fail to carry the early vote in either state, vote count, which will begin roughly now and continue well you’re close to writing it off. Watch, with particular interest, past 11:30pm. Returns in Florida’s 26th and 27th should be the Republican margins for Senator Ted Cruz in Fort Bend, giving us a good idea of how both the Governor’s race and Denton, and his deficit in Harris. If the former two are in the the Senate race will finish. double digits, and the latter within ten or less, it will indeed be a fast victory for Cruz when El Paso closes one hour later. Early votes will pile in from Ohio over the next 45 minutes. If Democratic challenger Congressman Beto O’Rourke’s Expect a Democratic lead in the Governor’s race, in OH- margin in Harris County is 15% or more, this race is likely to 12, and even OH-1 at this stage. The election day vote will go to the wire and could even be an upset for O’Rourke. determine the Republicans’ fates, unless they’re out of the early vote gate ahead, in which case it’s game over for their 8:30pm — Election day votes will be in for TX32, FL26, Democratic challengers. FL27, OH1, OH12, so if none were blowouts 30 minutes to an hour before, this time period is now do-or-die for West Virginia votes will roll in slowly where Senator Joe the trailing candidates. Arkansas closes, and AR-02 is Manchin is considered likely to win re-election despite the only race worth watching there, but if it’s close for the President Trump’s efforts to defeat him, and don’t expect a Republican incumbent, odds are we are already over a lot of vote reporting in WV-03 in the first thirty minutes. dozen seats having flipped to Team Blue. Maine’s Second District, which makes up the contested portion of the state North Carolina features a pile of potentially close contests for the Gubernatorial race, begins reporting. but two to watch most are NC-09 and NC-13. Republicans in both will likely trail in the initial vote- all of it early.

4 • dentons.com The early votes from the exurbs of Atlanta have rolled in for MN-1 and MN-8 should begin to roll in as well, providing Georgia Governor. In theory, as we move closer to Atlanta, Republicans with their two best chances of flipping the closer the final result will become. seats, while MN-2 and MN-3 are likely to be rolling in the opposite direction. Ohio Governor should begin shifting towards Republican Mike DeWine If he is going to become the eventual Meanwhile in Colorado, the outcome in CO-06 and the winner, but if a likely early vote Cordray lead hasn’t Governor’s race should become obvious as Jefferson, budged, DeWine’s heartburn begins. Assuming things Adams and Arapahoe County have dumped in the majority do narrow, watch carefully what remains for election day of their votes. from Butler, Cuyahoga, Delaware, Franklin, Hamilton and Licking counties. 10:00PM — IOWA POLLS CLOSE, NEVADA’S AND Run up to 9:00pm — ALL polls have now closed in Texas, MONTANA’S AND ARIZONA’S TOO, AND THE FINAL Michigan, New York, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and ROUND OF PRECINCTS IN NORTH DAKOTA. Colorado begins counting its votes. NBC News had called control of the US House in 2010 for the Republican Party Races to watch: AZ SEN, MT SEN, NV SEN, ND SEN, IA at 9:06pm. Texas and Michigan’s respective Gubernatorial GOV, NV GOV, IA-1, IA-3, MT-AL, NV-3, NV-4, UT-4 and Senatorial races should be called at this time, if polling Early voting from Clark and Washoe county will post first in holds. If polling doesn’t, well, you’ll have to wait until next the Silver State of Nevada, making or breaking incumbent week to see where you need to look next! Republican Senator Dean Heller’s re-election campaign. Early votes from Maricopa, Pima, Pinal and Yuma will report 9:00PM — ALL POLLS HAVE NOW CLOSED IN TEXAS, first in the State of Arizona. Arizona’s polls actually closed MICHIGAN, NEW YORK, WISCONSIN, NEW MEXICO, an hour earlier, but due to a state law prohibiting the MINNESOTA, AND COLORADO BEGIN COUNTING reporting of returns for a full hour after close, a huge vote ITS VOTES. drop will roll in just minutes after the hour.

Races to watch: WI GOV, WI -1, WI-6,MN GOV ,MN-1, Tennessee, if a close Senate contest, reaches its MN-2, MN-3, MN-7, MN-8, CO-3, CO-6, CO GOV, conclusion by now, as Shelby (Memphis) and Davidson MN GOV, NM GOV, NM-1, NM-2 (Nashville) drop in the last of their votes by this time.

NBC News had called control of the US House in 2010 for 10:30pm — Missouri has been considered one of the most the Republican Party at 9:06pm. Texas and Michigan’s contested Senate battlegrounds since Democratic Senator respective Gubernatorial and Senatorial races should be Claire McCaskill won re-election in 2012. With over 150 called at this time, if polling holds. If the polling doesn’t minutes of returns piling in, Kansas City and St Louis City hold, well, you’ll have to wait until next week to see where will have finally reported the bulk of their votes by this point. you need to look next! Her Republican opponent, Attorney General Josh Hawley, may yet have rural areas remaining for votes, but McCaskill, With House races at this point likely called in Florida, Virginia, if she is trailing at this point, will need those last drops of city Georgia, New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, the focus returns to finish ahead. shifts further west toward states whose results are piling up by this point (Illinois 6th, Michigan 8th, Missouri 2nd, Iowa’s rural counties begin to report their election-day Nebraska 2nd, Kansas 2nd, Kansas 3rd, Texas 7th, Texas returns as the early votes have fully reported by now. The 23rd, Texas 32nd). If these races have been drawn-out slogs Governor’s and House contests will begin to see calls since polls closed, they would be nearing the end at this point. if polling holds, if not it, will be another hour or so before enough of the rural vote reports to determine if Republicans Wisconsin’s Gubernatorial contest will either resolve can hold on. rapidly or drag on, and we’ll know in the first twenty-five minutes. That’s how long you’ll need to wait for Dane, Nevada’s full early vote has reported by this time, and the Waukesha, Washington, Ozaukee, Milwaukee, Brown, rural counties begin to report their election day tallies. Clark Outagamie and Rock counties to start reporting- and for is easily another hour away from posting its first dump of Waukesha and Dane to clear 25-35% of their total vote. If election day votes, but at this time if Senator Dean Heller is Governor Scott Walker is winning the WOW counties by a already down, he isn’t likely to turn things around. margin larger than his Democratic challenger Tony Evers is In Georgia, the Governor’s race started off the night winning Dane, Walker has a fighting chance for a third term. with a considerable lead for Brian Kemp, because the If not, his window closes rapidly as rural Wisconsin either rural southern third reports first. But by 1030pm, the early saves or finishes him. vote, and the election day vote, has begun to report in 9:30pm — New York returns begin piling in for NY1, NY11, from the metro Atlanta area. Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb, and NY-19, NY-22, while returns in downstate Illinois should be Fulton will have most of their eventual vote reporting by indicating either a sweeping R hold or, if the Democratic this time. Watch the margins- if neither candidate can get wave materializes with full force, this becomes yet another above 50% of the vote as the ATL reports, we’re headed region with Democratic gains. Minnesota’s returns in for a runoff on December.

5 • dentons.com Montana’s early vote is fully in by this point, and election Moreover, given the way that California counts votes and day returns begin to report from Lewis and Clark County. the many thousands of absentee, military and contested In the Senate race, Jon Tester has won squeakers before, ballots that will have to be considered, it will be days, and so don’t take a small lead or a small deficit to mean in some cases, weeks, before the outcome is final. Thus, it much quite yet. The at-large House race may also remains possible, though not currently likely, that in a worst be competitive: if Gianforte isn’t running ahead of the case scenario, it could be weeks before we even know Republican Senate candidate, he’s in serious trouble and which party will control the House in the next Congress. we’re in for a long count.

While incumbent North Dakota Democratic Senator 12:00 am- ALASKA Heidi Heitkamp is considered to be a strong retail Races to watch: AK GOV, AK-ALL campaigner, recent polling continues to show her well behind her Republican opponent Congressman In the Governor’s race, 10 days ago, Republican Mike Kevin Cramer. At this point, it would be a major upset if Dunleavy had been considered a lock to win election with Heitkamp were to win re-election. a double-digit lead over each of the other two candidates. However, the dynamics of this race then changed enormously when Governor Bill Walker, an independent, 11:00 PM — CALIFORNIA, WASHINGTON AND HAWAII having concluded that he could not win re-election, POLLS CLOSE. (OREGON AND WASHINGTON ARE dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democratic ENTIRELY BALLOTS BY MAIL) candidate, former Alaska Senator Mark Begich. Since then, Races to watch: CA-4, CA-10, CA-21, CA-22, CA-25, CA- most of Walker’s supporters have flocked to Begich and this 39, CA-45, CA-48- CA-49, CA-50, WA-5, WA-8, CA GOV, now-one-on-one race has become extremely competitive. HI GOV, OR GOV The most recent polling gives Dunleavy a 48-44% lead over Begich, within the poll’s margin of error. While the Dean Unless a true Democratic wave materializes, control of of the House, Don Young, first elected in 1973, remains the House could still be in play at 11:00 PM EST when the favored for re-election in AK-ALL, the likelihood of a more polls close in California and votes begin to be counted. competitive Governor’s race could improve the prospects Given the number of competitive California House races, of the Democratic candidate Alyse Galvin. the results in the California races, several of which are considered to be quite close, well within the margin of polling error, could determine which party will control the House. At a minimum, these results will determine the size of the margin that the controlling party will have in the House and will be crucial to whether any party obtains an effective working majority.

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