Election night race results timeline NUMBERS TO REMEMBER Of the 26 Republican-held Governor’s seats up for election, 16 are battlegrounds, including 10 of the 13 open seats. Of Democrats need to flip 2 seats in the Senate and 23 in the the nine Democratic-held seats up for election, eight—all House to capture a majority. except Hawaii—are battlegrounds. Alaska’s independent- held seat is also a battleground. The GOP is defending 40 open seats in the House. Senate Democrats must defend 26 of the 35 seats up this cycle. A FEW META QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER AS ONE WATCHES THE 36 states have Governors races; 26 held by the GOP, 9 by Democrats and 1 Independent. 15 are open seats. ELECTION RETURNS 82% of all state legislative seats are up for election. • How early in the evening will the networks make a call in the race for control of the House? Given the number of competitive House races out west, an early call seems unlikely. A call for the Democrats before 11:00 HISTORY TO CONSIDER PM EST in the race for House control would indicate that a Democratic wave has materialized and that House Midterms are historically bad for the party in power with Dems are likely to pick up at least 30-35 seats, providing average losses of 4 seats in the Senate and 30 seats in the them with a workable margin in the next Congress. House. • How closely will the results in the competitive Senate The president’s party loses an average of 350 legislative races track with the President’s popularity in those seats in midterm elections. states? In other words, to what degree are the results in the competitive Senate races a referendum on President Trump or are these results driven primarily by the THE BATTLEGROUND strength of the candidates and state-specific issues? The Senate Democrats must defend seats in 10 states that • Will the Democrats capture as many Governors races supported Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016, while as the pundits are predicting? If a strong number of Republicans must defend one seat in a state won by Clinton Democratic Governor pickups materializes, this will have in 2016. significant implications for both the 2020 presidential election and for the redistricting that will follow in 2021. The House has a field of roughly 96 seats, 88 Rs and 8 Ds, considered competitive. Of those 88 GOP held seats, 19 are open and 25 were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. 1 • dentons.com 6 - 7 pm 7:30 pm 8 pm 8:30 - 9 pm 10 pm 11 pm 12 - 1 am ELECTION TIMELINE hour, it’s a bad sign nationally for the GOP. A victory or a 6:00 PM — POLLS CLOSED IN MOST OF narrow loss by Hall would mean that House Republicans are INDIANA, KENTUCKY in for a very challenging evening Polls close in those portions of Indiana and Kentucky that Jump across the Ohio river into Kentucky, and you find are in the Eastern time zone while polls in the rest of each one major race: KY-06, one of the true bellwether House state close at 7:00 PM. races of this cycle, a race where, beginning in early August, the incumbent has run a slew of negative ads against his Races to watch: IN-SEN, IN-02, KY-06 opponent . Seeking a 4th term, conservative incumbent Republican Congressman Andy Barr, the Chairman of the In Indiana, incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly Congressional Horse Caucus, faces political newcomer, faces Republican businessman Mike Braun. While an Democrat Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps Lieutenant average of the most recent polling has Donnelly modestly Colonel who was one of the first woman fighter pilots in the ahead by less than 1% (.8%), well within the margin of error, US military. most observers consider this race a toss-up. An early call for either Senate candidate would suggest that the party of the Barr calls McGrath a pro-choice feminist and long-time winning candidate is likely to have a good night. supporter of President Obama who is simply ‘too liberal for Kentucky”. McGrath calls Barr “Mitch McConnell’s Marion County will take a while to release its first count handpicked congressman”, a career politician controlled by (probably looking at 6:45pm-7pm) but should be strongly large donors who said he would vote enthusiastically to take pro-Donnelly. A weaker margin there means a good night healthcare away from over a quarter million Kentuckians. for Braun. Before we see Indianapolis report, though, we Citing her mother’s successful battle against polio, McGrath should be seeing returns in Clark, Hamilton, St Joseph and says ensuring access to health care is important and highly Marshall. The last time that he ran, Senator Donnelly carried personal to her. Clark and St Joseph and kept his margins of loss smaller in the other two. If he’s repeating that performance, he’s on his Building upon the enormous momentum that began when way to re-election, but if each county slides to the right a la her campaign announcement video went viral, McGrath Evan Bayh in 2016, the race could be over before CST-time has made this a tossup race . The 538 forecast from Nate zone counties like Vanderburgh and Laporte get to weigh in. Silver has this race moving in the past week modestly in favor of McGrath. While you’re watching Indiana, pay attention to St Joseph and Marshall for Indiana 2, incumbent Republican The initial votes to be reported in this race will likely come Congresswoman Jackie Walorski’s district, where Walorski is from Democratic leaning Fayette County. Expect McGrath, considered likely to defeat Democrat Mel Hall despite Hall’s then, to have an early lead. If she doesn’t, with Fayette considerable spending in a district that President Trump reporting (and quickly), McGrath’s odds of an upset win won by 23% in 2016. If this race is running close in the first through rural pockets are extremely small. That said, if 2 • dentons.com McGrath has a ten-point lead or greater when Fayette has Scott faces off against transgender candidate Christine reported, she may be able to blunt Republican margins in Hallquist in what most are calling a safe race, but a poll by the smaller areas. While it would not be a huge surprise if the VT Democratic Party found the Governor holding onto Barr hangs on, a win by McGrath, particularly if called early an eight point lead last month. Considering the political in the evening, would be a very good omen for House lean of the state and the general environment, a weak Democrats’ prospects nationally. performance by Scott would bode poorly, however unlikely this turn of events, for other Republican candidates who have distanced themselves from the President. Keep an eye 7:00 PM — POLLS CLOSED IN ALL OF INDIANA, on central Vermont and Rutland, the latter a comparative KENTUCKY, VIRGINIA, VERMONT, GEORGIA, Republican stronghold. SOUTH CAROLINA, MOST OF FLORIDA, MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE In neighboring New Hampshire, incumbent Republican Chris Sununu sports a polling lead and favorable approval Races to watch before 7:30pm: VA2, VA7, VA10, ratings but again faces an unpleasant political environment. VT GOV, SC01, NH01, NH GOV Watch returns from Rochester, Barrington, and Manchester counties in the first thirty minutes- most will have reported 7:00 PM — Two nationally important Governor races in by then and a roughly even performance for Sununu keeps Florida and Georgia, a key Senate race in Florida, seven him in the game, an outright edge overall in these counties competitive House races in Florida and four competitive indicates he’s winning re-election. House races in Virginia highlight this poll closing hour. Sticking around in New England, New Hampshire’s 1st Florida provides the marquee Senate race during this poll Congressional District is an important race for a number closing where incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson of reasons. First, because it has closely mirrored the national faces term-limited Republican Governor Rick Scott in “Congressional popular vote” percentage margin in each of what is the most expensive Senate race in this cycle. The the last six House elections. Second, it’s an open contest, Real Clear Politics average of polling data in the last week with no incumbent running for re-election, giving us a indicates that Nelson has a 3.2% lead over Scott, a lead possible glimpse of what may transpire in close open seat inside the margin of error. elections to come later in the evening. Watch returns from In the race to succeed Florida Governor Scott, Laconia, Rochester, Barrington, and Manchester counties Tallahassee Democratic Mayor Andrew Gillum faces Trump for clues before 7:30pm. favorite Republican former Congressman Ron DeSantis, a Leaving New England for Dixie, we encounter a trio race where mud has flown early and often with DeSantis of Virginia races and an interesting one in South arguing that Gillum is a corrupt politician who is on the Carolina. In South Carolina’s 1st district, the incumbent take and Gillum accusing DeSantis of consorting with, and Congressman Mark Sanford was defeated in the seeking the support of, racists. Republican primary by the more Trump-friendly candidate The Georgia Governor’s race, where Republican Secretary Katie Arrington. Arrington suffered serious injuries in a car of State Brian Kemp faces Democrat Stacey Abrams, has accident just after the primary, prompting her Democratic been equally heated with Democrats having just won a opponent, Joe Cunningham, to suspend his campaign out lawsuit challenging Secretary of State Kemp’s practice of of respect.