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Benetton Group Spa Rating Change UNDERPERFORM

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Benetton Group Spa Rating Change UNDERPERFORM Benetton Group Spa Rating Change UNDERPERFORM Equity | Italy | Apparel 15 November 2010 Faded colours Flavio Cereda >> +44 20 7996 1455 Research Analyst MLPF&S (UK) Downgrading BEN to Underperform: PO cut 17% to €5.0 [email protected] We believe BEN has become a value trap, we thought the stock had reached a floor of sorts after H110: it does not appear so. A poor Q3 combined with deteriorating news flow has returned the stock to its previous predicament, in our Stock Data view: how do I deal with competitors that are bigger, better and more appealing Price EUR5.10 than me? BEN’s inability to generate any real growth this year in spite of the Price Objective EUR5.00 recent restructuring effort (mgmt estimate €50mn net benefits at the EBIT level as Date Established 15-Nov-2010 a result) and peer performance, flags a troubling lack of brand appeal, in our view, Investment Opinion B-3-7 Volatility Risk MEDIUM that we fear will take some time to redress given a challenging 2011-12. 52-Week Range EUR5.06-EUR6.97 Beyond cotton…between a rock and a hard place… Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) EUR931 / 182.7 We think BEN will be struggling with a number of very key issues in the MT: over- Average Daily Volume 297,628 reliance on a stagnant and increasingly competitive domestic market (46%), BofAML Ticker / Exchange BNTOF / MIL Bloomberg / Reuters BEN IM / BNG.MI soaring input costs (a first toll in Q4-10 and H1-11), the need to continue to run a ROE (2010E) 7.4% ‘nice price’ policy with many of its retail clients, relatively small exposure to Asia Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2009A) 38.4% (16%) and China in particular, and what appears to be a troubling lack of profile in Est. 5-Yr EPS / DPS Growth 2.0% / 13.0% the highest-spend teen-ager/young adult age groups. A visit to one of the Free Float 33.0% revamped stores provide us ample evidence to this effect. F/W10-11 is running at -3.5% and we believe S/S11 is unlikely to be positive in spite of easy LFLs. Key Changes Is the stock cheap or just fairly valued ? (EUR) Previous Current Inv. Opinion B-2-7 B-3-7 Following our cut in estimates, BEN trades on 10x 2011E and 9x 2012E earnings, Inv. Rating NEUTRAL UNDERPERFORM 5.5x and 5x EBITDA with 0 expected EPS growth and a total of 3% EBITDA Price Obj. 6.00 5.00 increase. In our view, the stock does not justify a higher multiple, although the 2010E Rev (m) 2,020.0 2,035.0 family may encourage a healthy yield – remains a risky proposition in our view. 2011E Rev (m) 2,050.0 2,025.0 We think the stock is once more fully valued and deserves its significant discount 2012E Rev (m) 2,110.0 2,085.0 2010E EBITDA (m) 299.1 282.1 to peers and we downgrade BEN to Underperform from Neutral as we see no 2011E EBITDA (m) 323.1 286.1 upside potential on fundamentals at this time having cut EPS forecasts for 2011- 2012E EBITDA (m) 337.1 302.1 12 by 16% and 13%, respectively. Estimates (Dec) (EUR) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E EPS (Reported Diluted) 1.47 0.68 0.58 0.52 0.58 EPS Change (YoY) 84.2% -53.8% -15.0% -9.4% 11.8% Dividend / Share 0.28 0.23 0.23 0.28 0.34 Valuation (Dec) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E P/E 3.48x 7.53x 8.86x 9.77x 8.74x Dividend Yield 5.55% 4.51% 4.51% 5.50% 6.67% EV / EBITDA* 4.32x 4.96x 5.42x 5.35x 5.06x Free Cash Flow Yield* -4.78% 20.7% 8.78% 5.62% 8.87% Return on Capital Employed 11.5 7.1 6.6 7.1 7.4 * For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 7. c58da9b710df662c >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of MLPF&S and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Merrill Lynch entities that take responsibility for this report in particular jurisdictions. BofA Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 8 to 10. Analyst Certification on Page 6. Price Objective Basis/Risk on page 6. Link to Definitions on page 6. 10993928 Benetton Group Spa 15 November 2010 SM iQprofile Benetton Group Spa Key Income Statement Data (Dec) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2012E Company Description (EUR Millions) Benetton is one of the leading apparel Sales 2,128 2,049 2,035 2,025 2,085 manufacturers and retailers under the UCB, EBITDA Adjusted 354 308 282 286 302 Undercolors, Sisley and other minor brands. It is Depreciation & Amortization (99.7) (103) (97.0) (119) (119) Italian-based and italy remains its main market, but EBIT Adjusted 255 205 185 167 183 its products are sold via a network of some 6000 Net Interest & Other Income (41.5) (17.6) (7.56) (14.6) (12.6) doors globally as well as nearly 400 DOS. Tax Expense / Benefit 56.3 (68.0) (67.5) (57.2) (63.9) Net Income (Adjusted) 268 124 105 95.3 107 Average Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 183 183 183 183 183 Investment Thesis Key Cash Flow Statement Data After a number of difficult years the Group has now Net Income (Reported) 268 124 105 95.3 107 embarked on a relaunch effort to help capitalise on Depreciation & Amortization 99.7 103 97.0 119 119 its brand profile and distribution network better. This Change in Working Capital (125) 21.7 (15.4) (33.0) (11.0) entails changes to the sourcing and Deferred Taxation Charge (4.00) 17.0 15.5 (1.84) (2.09) distribution/logistics processes which will also lead Other CFO (79.2) 28.9 24.5 22.7 39.9 to savings. There is an opportunity to 'modernise' Cash Flow from Operations 159 294 227 202 253 the business dynamics, but it is not yet clear to Capital Expenditure (204) (102) (145) (150) (170) what extent the new management will be able to (Acquisition) / Disposal of Investments (4.70) (12.0) 0 0 0 successfully enforce changes. Deteriorating news Other CFI 0 0 0 0 0 flow is of growing concern at this time. Cash Flow from Investing (209) (114) (145) (150) (170) Share Issue / (Repurchase) (69.1) (2.70) 0 0 0 Cost of Dividends Paid (75.1) (49.8) (42.0) (42.0) (50.0) Increase (decrease) debt 232 (151) (42.0) 27.8 (33.0) Stock Data Other CFF (253) 152 47.0 (27.8) 33.0 Cash Flow from Financing (165) (51.5) (37.0) (42.0) (50.0) Price to Book Value 0.7x Total Cash Flow (CFO + CFI + CFF) (214) 129 44.7 10.3 32.5 FX and other changes to cash 231 (145) (48.7) 28.0 (31.5) Change in Cash 16.5 (15.9) (4.00) 38.3 1.00 Change in Net Debt 216 (135) (38.0) (10.5) (34.0) Net Debt 693 558 520 510 476 Key Balance Sheet Data Property, Plant & Equipment 1,049 1,035 1,072 1,103 1,113 Goodwill 37.9 43.0 43.0 43.0 36.0 Other Intangibles 222 210 240 260 240 Other Non-Current Assets 217 204 199 188 213 Trade Receivables 781 786 793 800 820 Cash & Equivalents 170 154 150 188 189 Other Current Assets 469 395 413 397 416 Total Assets 2,947 2,826 2,910 2,979 3,027 Long-Term Debt 400 401 373 355 338 Other Non-Current Liabilities 95.3 101 98.5 125 119 Short-Term Debt 462 311 297 343 327 Other Current Liabilities 597 558 718 716 755 Total Liabilities 1,555 1,372 1,486 1,539 1,539 Total Equity 1,391 1,456 1,423 1,440 1,488 Total Equity & Liabilities 2,946 2,827 2,910 2,979 3,027 Business Performance* Return On Capital Employed 11.5% 7.14% 6.58% 7.11% 7.43% Return On Equity 19.4% 8.81% 7.39% 6.73% 7.37% Operating Margin 12.0% 10.0% 9.10% 8.25% 8.78% Free Cash Flow (MM) (44.5) 192 81.7 52.3 82.5 Quality of Earnings* Cash Realization Ratio 0.60x 2.38x 2.16x 2.12x 2.37x Asset Replacement Ratio 3.04x 1.48x 2.23x 2.31x 2.62x Tax Rate NM 36.2% 38.0% 37.5% 37.5% Net Debt/Equity 49.8% 38.4% 36.6% 35.4% 32.0% Interest Cover 6.18x 11.4x 10.3x 11.1x 14.1x * For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 7. 2 Benetton Group Spa 15 November 2010 Table 1: Q309 Q310 delta 9M09 9M10 delta Revenues 609 606 -0.5% 1491 1498 0.5% of which Wholesale 475 470 -1.1% 1089 1085 -0.4% Retail 107 110 2.8% 324 333 2.8% Other 27 28 3.7% 78 80 2.6% GOP 283 274 -3.2% 692 707 2.2% mg 46.5% 45.2% 46.4% 47.2% EBIT 91 78 -14.3% 134 141 5.2% mg 14.9% 12.9% 9.0% 9.4% Trade NWC 845 786 Net Debt 819 645 OCF 31 78 Source: Company reports, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research Table 2: BEN estimate changes 2010E 2011E 2012E from… …to delta from… …to delta from… …to delta Revenues 2020 2035 0.7% 2050 2025 -1.2% 2110 2085 -1.2% EBITDA 299 282 -5.7% 314 267 -15.0% 330 290 -12.1% EPS 0.57 0.58 1.8% 0.62 0.52 -16.1% 0.67 0.58 -13.4% Net Debt 516 520 0.8% 490 510 4.1% 451 476 5.5% Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates Chart 1: BEN – Margins are under pressure Chart 2: BEN – Hiccup possible in financials 13.0% 48.0% 2.20 27.00 12.0% 2.00 46.0% 22.00 11.0% 1.80 10.0% 17.00 44.0% 1.60 9.0% 12.00 8.0% 1.40 42.0% ND/EBITDA x 7.00 7.0% 1.20 6.0% 40.0% 1.00 2.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E EBIT mg Gross mg Net Debt/EBITDA Interest cov er Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates 3 Benetton Group Spa 15 November 2010 Table 3: BEN Share Profile SHARE PROFILE (€) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Share price, high 10.2 10.2 15.6 14.82 12.3 7.5 Share price, low 8.3 7.0 9.6 10.8 5.3 5.0 Share price, ave/current 9.2 8.4 12.1 12.4 7.2 6.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 Share number (fd) 182 182 182 183 183 183 183 183 183 Major Shareholders (%) Edizione Holding 67.0% Free Float 33.0% VALUATION PROFILE (€) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E EPS 0.60 0.62 0.68 0.80 0.85 0.67 0.58 0.52 0.58
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