Benetton Group Spa Rating Change UNDERPERFORM Equity | Italy | Apparel 15 November 2010 Faded colours Flavio Cereda >> +44 20 7996 1455 Research Analyst MLPF&S (UK) Downgrading BEN to Underperform: PO cut 17% to €5.0
[email protected] We believe BEN has become a value trap, we thought the stock had reached a floor of sorts after H110: it does not appear so. A poor Q3 combined with deteriorating news flow has returned the stock to its previous predicament, in our Stock Data view: how do I deal with competitors that are bigger, better and more appealing Price EUR5.10 than me? BEN’s inability to generate any real growth this year in spite of the Price Objective EUR5.00 recent restructuring effort (mgmt estimate €50mn net benefits at the EBIT level as Date Established 15-Nov-2010 a result) and peer performance, flags a troubling lack of brand appeal, in our view, Investment Opinion B-3-7 Volatility Risk MEDIUM that we fear will take some time to redress given a challenging 2011-12. 52-Week Range EUR5.06-EUR6.97 Beyond cotton…between a rock and a hard place… Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) EUR931 / 182.7 We think BEN will be struggling with a number of very key issues in the MT: over- Average Daily Volume 297,628 reliance on a stagnant and increasingly competitive domestic market (46%), BofAML Ticker / Exchange BNTOF / MIL Bloomberg / Reuters BEN IM / BNG.MI soaring input costs (a first toll in Q4-10 and H1-11), the need to continue to run a ROE (2010E) 7.4% ‘nice price’ policy with many of its retail clients, relatively small exposure to Asia Net Dbt to Eqty (Dec-2009A) 38.4% (16%) and China in particular, and what appears to be a troubling lack of profile in Est.