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Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation

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Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation USDA Technical Bulletin 1935 Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation This document may be cited as: Walthall, C.L., J. Hatfield, P. Backlund, L. Lengnick, E. Marshall, M. Walsh, S. Adkins, M. Aillery, E.A. Ainsworth, C. Ammann, C.J. Anderson, I. Bartomeus, L.H. Baumgard, F. Booker, B. Bradley, D.M. Blumenthal, J. Bunce, K. Burkey, S.M. Dabney, J.A. Delgado, J. Dukes, A. Funk, K. Garrett, M. Glenn, D.A. Grantz, D. Goodrich, S. Hu, R.C. Izaurralde, R.A.C. Jones, S-H. Kim, A.D.B. Leaky, K. Lewers, T.L. Mader, A. McClung, J. Morgan, D.J. Muth, M. Nearing, D.M. Oosterhuis, D. Ort, C. Parmesan, W.T. Pettigrew, W. Polley, R. Rader, C. Rice, M. Rivington, E. Rosskopf, W.A. Salas, L.E. Sollenberger, R. Srygley, C. Stöckle, E.S. Takle, D. Timlin, J.W. White, R. Winfree, L. Wright-Morton, L.H. Ziska. 2012. Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation. USDA Technical Bulletin 1935. Washington, DC. 186 pages. This document was produced as part of of a collaboration between the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research under USDA cooperative agreement 58-0111-6-005. NCAR’s primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation. Images courtesy of USDA and UCAR. This report is available on the Web at: http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects.htm Printed copies may be purchased from the National Technical Information Service. Call 1-800- 553-NTIS (6847) or 703-605-6000, or visit http://www.ntis.gov. February 2013 The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all of its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, and where applicable, sex, marital status, familial status, parental status, religion, sexual orientation, political beliefs, genetic information, reprisal, or because all or part of an individual’s income is derived from any public assistance program. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at (202) 720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write to USDA, Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Stop 9410, Washington, DC 20250-9410, or call toll-free at (866) 632-9992 (English) or (800) 877- 8339 (TDD) or (866) 377-8642 (English Federal-relay) or (800) 845-6136 (Spanish Federal-relay). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ii Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Key Messages ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Crop Response to Changing Climate .................................................................................................................................................... 3 Livestock Response to Changing Climate .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Effects of Climate Change on Soil and Water .................................................................................................................................... 4 Extreme Events ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 5 Adaptation ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Research Needs ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Understanding Exposure ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Understanding Sensitivity ................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Enhancing Adaptive Capacity ............................................................................................................................................................ 8 Chapter 1: U.S. Agriculture and Climate ................................................................................................................................... 9 Report Goals and Scope .............................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Document Organization ...........................................................................................................................................................................10 Authors ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................10 Chapter 2: An Overview of U.S. Agriculture.........................................................................................................................11 Forces Affecting U.S. Agriculture ..........................................................................................................................................................12 Economic Factors and U.S. Agriculture .........................................................................................................................................12 Effects of Technology on U.S. Agriculture ....................................................................................................................................17 Climate Effects on U.S. Agriculture .................................................................................................................................................17 Agriculture: A Complex Social-Ecological System (SES) ............................................................................................................19 New Research for a Novel Challenge .............................................................................................................................................20 Chapter 3: An Overview of the Changing Climate .........................................................................................................23 Evidence of Changing Climate Across the Globe ..........................................................................................................................23 Projections of Future Global Climate .................................................................................................................................................24 Changing Climate Across the United States: The Last 100 Years ..........................................................................................24 Temperature ...........................................................................................................................................................................................26 Precipitation ............................................................................................................................................................................................27 Projections of Future U.S. Climate Change ......................................................................................................................................29 Temperature ...........................................................................................................................................................................................29 Precipitation ............................................................................................................................................................................................30 Extreme Conditions ..............................................................................................................................................................................31 Changes in Tropospheric Ozone .....................................................................................................................................................32 Conclusions .....................................................................................................................................................................................................33 iii Table of Contents Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation
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