Turning Mobile Growth Into Broadband Success: Case Study of Pakistan

Turning mobile growth into broadband success: Case Study of Pakistan

Syed Ismail Shah, PhD Chairman, Pakistan Telecommunication Authority E-mail: [email protected] Evolution of Cellular Mobile Communication in Pakistan

2 Evolution of Cellular Mobile Communication in Pakistan

3 • Total Spectrum offered was 2 lots with the following configuration:

• Total Spectrum 2X13.6MHz

• 2X4.8MHz in 900MHz band and 2X 8.8MHz in 1800MHz band

• Existing Operators were to pay the same amount upon expiry of license with spectrum normalization except for Instaphone, who were only offered 2x7.38MHz in the 850 MHz band Total Teledensity (Millions)

4 GSM Coverage Data revenues

Data Revenues in the Telecoms Quarterly Shares of Data Revenue in Total Cellular Reve Sector 25.0 100 25.00% 19.30% 90 20.0 80 20.00% 16.40% 24.1 70 15.80% 15.0 23.5 60 13.70% 15.00% 12.40% 21.4 50 90 10.0 16.7 40 10.00% Percentage 72.2 15.0 30 64.7 50.3 5.0 20 42.6 5.00%

10 - 0 0.00% Oct- Jan - Apr - Jul - Sep Oct- 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun 14 14 Dec-14 Rs. Billion Percentage

• Revenue from data is now more than double what it was five years ago • For cellular mobile segment, share of data revenue has crossed 24% LDN Network Diagram

Fiber Backbone LDN-T has developed its backbone Network covering 78 cities. Ring, Enhanced Ring, Mesh & Spur network topologies have been used to create backbone.

Entity LDN-T Fibre Mixture of G.655 & G.652 Standard Cable Direct Buried & Mixture of Standard 24F & 48F Length 6900 Km approx. Cities 78(4 Planned) Covered Topology Mesh, Rings & Spurs O&M Internal (PMCL) PTCL Fiber Footprint & Cross Border Links

PTCL(10,400KM) covering all major cities of Pakistan Wateen Fiber Footprint

China via Khunjrab Wateen Long Haul Optical Fiber Cable Network providing connectivity from Karachi to Torkham Afghanistan via Torkham Mardan Major Taxila Abbotabad Peshawar Nowshera Murree Metro Fiber 6000 + km, Nine Rings Redundancy going to 11 Islamabad Kohat Gujar Khan Cities Rings Ahmedbanda Jhelum Bannu Mandi Kharian 4649 Km Expansion under USF Projects Bahauddin Gujrat Karak Khushab Sialkot Karachi Gujranwala 24 and 96 Core Fiber (Hybrid G652D and G655C) Mianwali Sargodha Lahore D I Khan Lahore Chiniot Wagah Zoib India via Wagha 163+ Sites for Add/Drop Bhakkar Raiwind Quetta Faisalabad Jhang Afghanistan via Chaman Gojra Kasur Qila Saif Ullah Layyah Pattoki Islamabad 4500 + Km Metro OFC in 50+ cities Muslim Bagh Sahiwal T T Singh Okara Kot Addu Chichawatni Pakpattan Faisalabad Quetta Lora Lai Khanewal Harnai Arifwala Dasht Qureshi Chowk Multan Sialkot Duki Muzaffargarh Burewala Sibbi Vehari Chaghi Mailsi Gujranwala Dringer D G Khan Lodhran Nushki Bahawalpur Taftan Dera Murad Jamali Gujrat Nokundi Fazilpur Mastung Liaquatpur Ahmanwal Rojhan Kharan Sahiwal Dalbadin Jacobabad Surab Khandkot Rahim Yar Khan Salimabad Sargodha Basima Shikarpur Dharki Sadiqabad Khanpur Mashkhel Nag Multan Sukkur Washuk Nal Larkana Ranipur Sobhodero Jhelum Panjgoor Johi Amirabad D. I. Khan Daulatpur Nawan Wali Muhammad Peshawar Hoshab Dadu Td.Adam Nawabshah Berani Kalri Jam Nawaz Ali Sukkur Thano Bula Khan Jamshoro Mirpur KhasUmer Kot Nooriabad Hyderabad Judho Chachro Thatta Hyderabad Islamkot Karachi JatiTando Bhago Abbotabad Gharo Mirpur Sakro SujawalBadin Chuhar Nagar Parkar Rawalpindi Ghora Bari Jamali Kati Bandar Shah Bandar Bahawalpur R.Y.Khan Multinet - 5000 KM Broadband Technology Penetration in Pakistan before 3G/4G Broadband Subscribers Status

3,000,000 2,721,659 2101315 2,500,000

2,000,000 1,491,491 1,500,000 900,648 1,000,000 413,809 168,082 500,000 45,153 - Broadband Technology Penetration in Pakistan before 3G/4G

12 The era of New Generation Mobile Services (3G & 4G Mobile Broadband 13

Auction took Government Place on 23rd 4 Mobile NGMS Licenses issued a Policy Consultant was April 2014 operations were awarded to Directive for contracted on through launched their 4 Mobile 3G/4G auction 19th December Simultaneous 3G/4G services Operators on on 7th October 2013 during Multiple Round 22nd May 2014 2013 Ascending September 2014 (SMRA) 3G & 4G- Progress so far

14 3 Mobile operators launched 3G & 1 operator launched 3G & 4G services

The Auction generated USD 1.2 Billion for the Government

Exponential growth of 3G & 4G subscribers- 12 Million subscribers ( as of March 2014)

Sudden surge in usage of Mobile Applications- Opening up a new immense opportunity in the county Exponential Monthly Growth in 3G/4G subscribers

Subscribers in millions Outstanding growth in Mobile Broadband after spectrum auction

16 Extensive Data Usage on 3G Networks

3G shares 2G shares % %

8,000 Voice 3% 87% Data 97% 13% 7,000 6,840

6,000 2G 3G Total 4,982 5,000

4,000 3G 4,448 Bytes (TBs) (TBs) Bytes Bytes Launch 3,531 3,000 2,794 2,578 2,297 In Tera In 2,154 2,000 1,964 2,392 1,850 2,155 2,188 1,449 1,887 1,243 1,219 1,322 1,693 1,857 1,000 1,639 1,601 1,243 1,219 1,322 1,449 1,376 691 - 211 363 461 440 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 MBB comparison with other countries (December 2014)

18 3G and 4G Coverage Projected Broadband Growth in Pakistan

70.0 Forecast based on 3G/4G uptake Plum High Demand Forecast

60.0 Broadband subscribers to 50.0 cross 50 million by 2018

40.0

30.0 3G /4G Spectrum 20.0 Auction

10.0

Broadband Subscribers in in in Million Million SubscribersSubscribers BroadbandBroadband - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year ending on June Market (Revenue) Market (Socio-Economic Development) 3G and 4G – an enabler for accelerated socio-economic development through mobile broadband

INTERNET OF CONNECTED THINGS COMMUNITIES Increasing number of connected devices per person

M-COMMERCE INTERPERSONAL Doing business and make COMMUNICATION payment from mobile 3G/4G Communicate, play and share content Next Generation with friends from mobile Mobile Services M-HEALTH Medical advice in remote areas ENTERTAINMENT Use of mobile as a portable TV WOMEN M-EDUCATION Education for all EMPOWERMENT

MM-AGRICULTURE-AGRICULTURE PERSONAL DIGITAL ME More than 60% of our population ECOSYSTEM Mobile carries digital access for payment, transport etc live in rural areas, mainly Access and control of connected dependent on agriculture devices remotely from mobile Economic Impact of Mobile Broadband

Induced Direct Effect Indirect Effect Effect

• Economic activities • Improvements in • Innovations and and new jobs productivity and new ideas diffuse directly associated efficiency through throughout society, with the deployment faster and more creating a of infrastructure, optimised favourable and other processes in agri, environment for associated education, health, new services and economic activities SMEs and other business models • i.e. jobs created for sectors of the • e.g. Advanced construction works, economy. online services, telecom engineers; • e.g. Optimization of new utility services Retail and supply chain consumer services paid for the newly generated income

Short term Short to mid term Mid to long term Additional GDP due to 3G and 4G services

International evidence / estimates

The World Bank estimates show that a 10 percent increase in mobile broadband penetration drives a 1.4 percent increase in GDP for low-to- Additional GDP during 2014-2020 middle income countries. (The World Bank and ITU) Estimated Rs. 1,200 Billion addition expected in GDP due A 10 percent point increase in broadband connections penetration to 3G and 4G services in leads to 0.92% increase in GDP in Pakistan during 2014-20. developing countries. (GSMA)

Direct, indirect and induced economic effects

Short-term and medium to long-run effects

Source: PTA , World Bank, GSMA, Plum Report 2013 GDP growth translates into Job Creation

International estimates

Addition of 1,000 new broadband connections results in the creation of 33 new jobs (Direct, Indirect and Induced jobs in industries that make use of broadband networks) GSMA Additional Job Creation:

The recent GSMA Report on Digital Expected 1 to 1.5 million Inclusion and Mobile Sector Taxation in employment generation Pakistan shows that for every new job created in Pakistan’s Mobile sector, 11 during 2014-2020. are generated in the wider economy GSMA Deloitte

For every percentage point increase in broadband penetration, employment would increase by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points per year. Planning Commission and GSMA

Source: PTA , GSMA, World Bank, Planning Commission and Plum Report 2013 27

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