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Is “Identity-Based Conflict” a Valid Or Banal Concept? Event History Analysis of Civil War Onset, 1960-2000

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IS “IDENTITY-BASED CONFLICT” A VALID OR BANAL CONCEPT? EVENT HISTORY ANALYSIS OF CIVIL WAR ONSET, 1960-2000 DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Rumi Morishima Tosaka, M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 2008 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Professor Edward M. Crenshaw, Advisor Professor J. Craig Jenkins Professor Pamela M. Paxton __________________________________ Adviser Professor Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier Graduate Program in Sociology Copyright by Rumi Morishima Tosaka 2008 ABSTRACT One assumption that is often implicit yet widely held in the conflict literature is the existence of “identity-based (ethnic)” conflicts. While this type of conflict is presumed to be conceptually and empirically distinct from “non-identity” conflicts, few close examinations have been undertaken regarding the validity of this assumption. By using the conditional risk model, a Cox proportional hazard model that allows for multiple failures, this dissertation investigates whether or not the two war “types” evince different causal explanations in ways that can justify the oft-mentioned distinction. Results suggest that while the different “types” of war share many causes, economic exclusion seems more applicable to non-identity civil war (e.g., class-based warfare) while political exclusion better explains identity-based civil war overall, suggesting that there may be some truth to the argument that political recognition plays an important role in identity-based war. First, socioeconomic development and international economic integration seem generally important for war prevention, yet other aspects of modernization show different patterns across the “types” of civil war. Population growth increases the risk of identity-based war. Economic differentials encourage non-identity wars, whereas political differentials seem to pose a greater ii danger of identity-based warfare. Second, as for political environments, inclusive political systems exhibit generally beneficial effects, while exclusive ones are the most dangerous, particularly regarding identity-based conflicts. Also, systematic denial of political opportunities, whether through discriminatory policies or deprivation of autonomy, increases the risk of identity war. In contrast, economic discrimination increases the risk of non-identity warfare. Third, the group size/numbers and identity attributes in combination differently affect the risk of the two war “types.” Religious diversity reduces the risk of non-identity wars, whereas linguistic fractionalization and ethnic polarization significantly increase the risk of identity-based civil war. Finally, the results also suggest that “conflict trap” exists regardless of the war “type,” at least up to the second event. It seems that either type of first conflict experience should be recognized as a serious precursory to continued conflict. Despite some scholars’ call for complete abandonment of identity-based conflict studies, it seems the classification merits further debate and continued empirical investigation. iii To my best, truest friend of life Yuji iv ACKNOWLEDGMENT I owe a great debt of gratitude to people whose support and encouragement have helped me finish what at first had seemed an impossible task. First and foremost, I am thankful to my dissertation committee. Professor Edward M. Crenshaw has provided help and advice in the process as the dissertation committee chair. Professor J. Craig Jenkins has had me deepen my sociological understanding of collective action and political violence. Special thanks also go to Professor Pamela Paxton for giving me valuable opportunities to develop analytic skills. I am deeply indebted to Professor Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier for her generous and always responsive comments and advice to my methodology questions. I also want to thank John Marcotte and Edward Mansfield at the University of Pennsylvania for their patience and understanding while I was working to complete this project. Last but certainly not the least, I owe the greatest thanks of all to my best, truest friend and partner of life, Yuji Tosaka, for giving me enduring, unquestioning support at every step through editorial assistance, thought-provoking comments and discussions, and unwavering confidence in my ability to complete the dissertation even when I felt like giving it all up. This dissertation is dedicated to him with my greatest appreciation of his always being “here” for me even from a long distance away. v VITA 1967…………………………………… Born – Minakuchi, Shiga, Japan 1990…………………………………… Bachelor of Arts, English Literature, Doshisha University, Kyoto, Japan June, 2001…………………………….. Master of Arts, Sociology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. 2001 – 2005…………………………… Graduate Research Associate, Sociology The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. June, 2003…………………………….. Admitted to Candidacy, Sociology The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. September, 2005 – Present……………. Data Analyst/Statistical Programmer, Research Data Services, The University of Pennsylvania. PUBLICATIONS 1. Bollen, Kenneth, Pamela Paxton, and Rumi Morishima. 2005. “Assessing International Evaluations: An Example From USAID’s Democracy and Governance Program.” American Journal of Evaluation, 26: 189-203. FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Sociology vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract ………………………………………………………………………………………. ii Dedication ……………………………………………………………………………………. iv Acknowledgments …………………………………………………………………………… v Vita …………………………………………………………………………………………… vi List of Tables ………………………………………………………………………………… xi List of Figures ………………………………………………………………………………... xii Chapters: 1. Introduction …………………………………………………………………………… 1 Significance: why civil war matters …………………………………………………... 1 Problematic: popular taxonomy and under-examined problems ……………………... 5 Present study: what is ahead ………………………………………………………….. 12 2. Theories of civil war ………………………………………………………………….. 16 Conceptualizing civil war …………………………………………………………….. 16 Conceptualizing identity civil war ……………………………………………………. 18 Theories of civil war onset ……………………………………………………………. 23 Socioeconomic structures, domestic …………………………………………….. 23 Structural modernization theory: overview …………………….................... 23 How has structural modernization theory explained the two “types”? …….. 29 Summary and hypotheses …………………………………………………... 33 Socioeconomic structures, external ……………………………………………… 35 World systems theory: overview …………………………………………… 35 How has the world systems theory explained the two “types”? …………… 40 Summary and hypotheses ………………………………………………….. 41 Political Environment, external ………………………………………………….. 42 vii World polity/neo-institutionalist theory: overview ………………………… 42 How has the world polity theory explained the two “types”? ……………… 44 Summary and hypothesis …………………………………………………... 45 Political environment, domestic …………………………………………………. 45 Political opportunity/state-centered thesis: overview ……………………… 45 How has political opportunity/state-centered thesis explained the two “types”? …………………………………………………………………….. 52 Summary and hypotheses ………………………………………………….. 55 Ethnicity, religion, and language: configurations and attributes ………………… 57 Fractionalization and attributes …………………………………………….. 60 Dominance and attributes ………………………………………………….. 64 Polarization and attributes ………………………………………………….. 66 Summary and hypothesis …………………………………………………... 69 3. Method and data ………………………………………………………………………. 73 Modeling strategy ……………………………………………………………………... 73 Conditional risk model …………………………………………………………… 73 Data and variables …………………………………………………………………….. 82 Dependent variable: civil war onset ……………………………………………… 82 Independent variables and controls ………………………………………………. 89 Measuring structural modernization ……………………………………….. 89 Economic development ……………………………………………… 89 Social development ………………………………………………….. 91 Demographic pressure ……………………………………………….. 92 Inequality …………………………………………………………….. 94 Measuring world systems ………………………………………………….. 97 Structural location in world systems ………………………………… 97 Exposure to global capitalism ……………………………………….. 98 Measuring world polity …………………………………………………….. 99 Embedment in world polity ………………………………………….. 99 Measuring level, institutional structures, and change of political environment …………………………………………………………………100 Level of democracy ………………………………………………….. 100 Institutional structures of polity and discriminatory policies ………...101 Changing political environment ……………………………………... 105 viii Measuring ethnic, religious and linguistic configurations ………………..... 108 Fractionalization and attributes ……………………………………… 108 Dominance and attributes …………………………………………….109 Polarization and attributes …………………………………………… 110 Control variables …………………………………………………………… 110 Regression diagnostics ………………………………………………………………...112 4. Results …………………………………………………………………………………113 Descriptive statistics ………………………………………………………………….. 113 Regression analysis by conditional risk model ……………………………………….. 114 The effects of socioeconomic structures ………………………………………….115 Domestic: structural modernization ………………………………………... 115 External: world systems …………………………………………………..... 121 Summary on the effects of socioeconomic structures ………………………123 The effects of political environment ……………………………………………...125 External: world polity ……………………………………………………… 125 Domestic: political opportunity/state-centered thesis ……………………… 125 Summary on the effects of political environment ………………………….. 131 The effects of ethnic, religious,
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