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The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change for the Australian Government's Protected Areas

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The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change for the Australian Government's Protected Areas The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change for the Australian Government's Protected Areas March 2008 Final Report A report to the DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT, WATER, HERITAGE AND THE ARTS and the DEPARTMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE © Commonwealth of Australia 2008 ISBN 978-1-921298-06-6 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth, available from the Department of Climate Change. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to: Assistant Secretary Adaptation and Science Branch Department of Climate Change GPO Box 854 CANBERRA ACT 2601 Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for Climate Change and Water and the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and the Arts. Note on the names of Departments referred to in this report Name changes to the Australian Government’s environment department have occurred over the past several years. This report refers to: • The Department of the Environment and Heritage (DEH); • The Department of the Environment and Water Resources (DEW); • The Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts (DEWHA) – current name; and • The Department of Climate Change – current name (formerly the Australian Greenhouse Office in DEW) Page i The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change for the Australian Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd Government's Protected Areas ABN 76 104 485 289 NS03532 The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change for the Australian Government's Protected Areas This report has been prepared for the Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts and the Department of Climate Change in accordance with the terms and conditions of appointment for The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change for the Australian Government's Protected Areas. Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd (ABN 76 104 485 289) cannot accept any responsibility for any use of or reliance on the contents of this report by any third party. Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd ABN 76 104 485 289 Level 5, 141 Walker Street, North Sydney NSW 2060, Australia Tel: +61 2 8907 9000 Fax: +61 2 8907 9001 www.hyderconsulting.com Acknowledgements Hyder Consulting wishes to acknowledge the contribution of time, expertise, insights and efforts of the following individuals and organisations: Professor Lesley Hughes, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University; Dr Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Centre for Marine Studies, University of Queensland; Tony Charters, Tony Charters and Associates; and Dr Tom Okey, Bamfield Marine Sciences Centre, Canada (formerly CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research). Extensive stakeholder consultation was a key source of information in the preparation of this report. Hyder Consulting would in particular like to acknowledge the contributions to this report made by protected area managers and staff within the Commonwealth Government. Page ii Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change for the Australian ABN 76 104 485 289 Government's Protected Areas NS03532 Contents Acronyms Used ..................................................................................................................xii Executive Summary...........................................................................................................xiv 1 Introduction ...............................................................................................................1 1.1 Report Scope................................................................................................................1 1.2 Methodology .................................................................................................................3 1.3 Uncertainty Surrounding Climate Change ....................................................................3 1.4 Report Structure ...........................................................................................................5 2 Protected Area Management....................................................................................6 2.1 Background...................................................................................................................6 2.2 Terrestrial Protected Areas...........................................................................................7 2.3 Marine Protected Areas................................................................................................8 2.4 Botanic Gardens...........................................................................................................9 3 Global and Australian Climate Trends ..................................................................11 3.1 An Introduction to Climate Change.............................................................................11 3.2 Observed Changes in Climate....................................................................................12 3.3 Projected Changes in Australian Climate and Second Order Effects.........................14 3.4 Protected Areas outside Regions Covered by CSIRO Scenarios ..............................17 3.5 Regional Climate Scenarios (2030 and 2070)............................................................18 4 Climate Change Impacts on the Values of Protected Areas................................24 4.1 Factors Influencing the Australian Biota .....................................................................24 4.2 Climate Change Influences on Biota ..........................................................................26 4.3 Potential Responses of biota to Climate Change .......................................................31 4.4 Constraints on Adaptation by Australian Biota ...........................................................34 4.5 How Biodiversity is Responding to Climate Change...................................................35 4.6 Impacts of Climate Change on Recreational Values ..................................................37 4.7 Impacts of Climate Change on Socio-cultural Values.................................................38 5 Introduction to Part 2 of the Report.......................................................................39 5.1 Background.................................................................................................................39 6 Booderee National Park..........................................................................................40 6.1 Bioregional Setting......................................................................................................40 6.2 Management Arrangements .......................................................................................41 6.3 Climate........................................................................................................................41 6.4 Natural Values ............................................................................................................41 6.5 Cultural Values ...........................................................................................................43 6.6 Recreational and Visitation Values.............................................................................44 6.7 Current Management Approaches..............................................................................45 Page iii The Impacts and Management Implications of Climate Change for the Australian Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd Government's Protected Areas ABN 76 104 485 289 NS03532 6.8 Climate Change Scenarios.........................................................................................46 6.9 Summary of Potential Climate Change Impacts and Secondary Effects....................47 6.10 Principal Management Implications............................................................................50 7 Christmas Island National Park..............................................................................53 7.1 Bioregional Setting......................................................................................................53 7.2 Management Arrangements .......................................................................................53 7.3 Climate........................................................................................................................53 7.4 Natural Values ............................................................................................................53 7.5 Recreational and Visitation Values.............................................................................57 7.6 Cultural Values ...........................................................................................................57 7.7 Current Management Approaches..............................................................................58 7.8 Climate Change Scenarios.........................................................................................59 7.9 Summary of Potential Climate Change Impacts.........................................................60 7.10 Principal Management Implications............................................................................61 8 Kakadu National Park..............................................................................................64 8.1 Bioregional Setting......................................................................................................64
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