States Are Suggested Based on a Study of Forecasting Techniques

DOCUMENT RES l'MF ED 022 006 VT 004 521 By- Sugg, Matilda R. THE FORECASTING OF MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept. of Labor),Washington, D.C. Repor t No- BLS- 248 Pub Date Apr 63 Note-101p. EDRS Price MF-$0.50 HC-$4.12 Descriptors-BIBLIOGRAPHIES, DATA ANALYSISDEVELOPING NATIONS ECONOMIC PROGRESSEDUCATIONAL *LABOR FORCED NEEDS EMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENTOPPORTUNITIES, *EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS SOCIAL PLANNING *MANPOWER UTILIZATION, *METHODOLOGY,OCCUPATIONAL SURVEYS, PREDICTION, This handbook was designed toassist economists andstatisticiansinthe economically developing countries in initiatingand conducting studiesfor determining future manpower requirements inrelation to anticipated development.It outlines a method of estimating future manpowerrequirements by occupationand industry and future training requirements orhigh-level occupations. The method isbased largely on United States experience. However,modifications of the techniques used inthe United States are suggested based on astudy of forecasting techniquesemployed in different counties. Steps in the method are:(1) Derive a rough first approximationof the future employment structure by economicactivity, (2) Make adetailed analysis of each activity, (3) Modify the first approximationsof future employment inaccordance with the activity analysis, (4)derive an occupational employmentbreakdown in each activ4 in the future period,and 5) Estimate training requirementsfor each important occupation by analyzingthe probable supply of qualifiedworkers under existing training arrangements in comparisonwith estimated needs for thefuture period. A bibliography of materials on economicdevelopment in different countriesand an international standard industrialclassification of economic activities areincluded. (ET) Ci BLS ReportNo. 248

'14

I OF JIREMENTS

c) UNITED STATESDEPARTMENT OFLABOR (A.D W. WillardWirtz, Secretary civ c=o BUREAU OF LABORSTATISTICS Ewan Clague,Commissioner Uit U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION & WELFARE

OFFICE OF EDUCATION

THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRODUCED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIGINATING IT,POINTS OF VIEW OR OPINIONS

STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE OF EDUCATION POSITION OR POLICY.

_THE FORECASTINGOF

MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS,

Prepared for

AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONALDEVELOPMENT

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENTOF LABOR W. Willard Wirtz, Secretary

BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Claws*, Commissionnr

April 1963 Preface

This manual is intended to serve as aguide in forecasting the manpower requirements associatedwith economic development. The methodoutlined is based largely onUnited States experience. }lowlier, the author has suggested modificationsof the techniquesused in theUnited States, based upon a studyof forecasting techniques employed indifferent countries.

The manual was preparedfor the Agency for International Development (AID) by Matilda R. Suggunder the supervision of Lloyd A. Prochnow in the Bureauof Labor Statistics' Division of Foreign Labor Conditions,William C. Shelton, Chief. Contents

Page

Chapter I. Introduction 1 The manpower problem 1 A manpower program for economic development 3 Factual data desirable for manpower programs 3 Anticipating future developments 4 Supplementary considerations in forecasting 5 Assumptions required for forecasts 6 Illustrative assumptions 7 Choice of a forecast year 8 Chapter II.Forecasting manpower requirements by industry and occupation, summary and method applicability 10 Summary of method. 10 Adaptation of this method on the basis of the statistics available 11 Chapter III. First approximation of employment by economic activity in a future year (Step 1) 13 Procedure for estimating total civilian employment in the future year 13 Procedure for estimating a breakdown of civilian employment by major sector 14 Procedure for estimating employment in each industry division in relation to total nonagricultural employment 18 Procedure for estimating employment in each industry in relation to employment in the divisions 30 Chapter IV. Detailed analysis of each important activity ( tep 2) 31 Preface to analysis 31 Selecting economic activities for detailed analysis 31

Information desired for analysis of each economic activity.. 35 Collection of data, suggested sources of published data 36 Preparing the analytical document for each economic activity to be analyzed 36 Chapter V. Modification of the first approximation (Step 3) 41. Fitting the conclusions of the analysis of important industries into the whole 44 Verification by analysis of Gross Domestic Product 44 Chapter VI. Estimated future employment by occupation (Step L) 47 Application of occupational composition patterns to industry projections 47 Oecupatioral grouping 63 Verification or modification of estimates for certain occupations64 Summary of occupational estimates 64 Chapter VII. Estimating training needs for each occupation (Step 5) 65 The current "pool" of qualified workers 65 Estimating outflovs 66 Estimating inflows 72 ContentsamContinued Page

The potential supply of workersto each occupational category 74 Balancing requirements with supply ...... OOOOOOOOOO ...... 75 Bibliography. O OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ...... OOOOO 77 Appendix..OO OOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ...... 95

Tables: 1. EmploymeLt and unemployment in the UnitedStates, actual 1957 and projected 1965-75 14 2. United States: GainfUl workers inagricultural occupations, 1820 to 1930. OOOOOOOOO ...... OOOOOOO...... OOOOO 15 3. Agricultural employment as a percent of theeconomically active population in selected countries inselected years.. 16 4. Venezuela: Estimated distribution of the nonagricultural work force 1950, 1955, and 1959,_,..... OOOOO oeul0000s000es OOOOO 19 5. Alternative projections to 1970: Nonagricultural employment byindustry division--Hillandale ...... 22 6. Computation of a line of regression of manufacturing'employment on total nonagricultural employmentin Hillandale, 19514100.0000000000000.000000000000000000000000000000000000 28 7. Percent distribution of estimated totalemployment in India in manufacturing industries, byindustry-and najor occupational groups, 195__ 6. OOOO ...... OOOOO ...... 50 8. Percent distribution of employed personsin the United States by industry and major occupational group,1950...... 52 9. Percent distribution of employedpersons in nonmanufacturing industries in the United States by industryand major occupational group, 1950 ...... OOOOO OOOOO 54 10. Percent distribution of economicallyactive population in Brazil by branch of economic activity and by major occupational group, 1950...... OOOOO ...... OOOOOOOOOO 56 11. Percent distribution of economicallyactive population in Chile by branch of economic activity and by major occupational group, 1952.... oul000 OOOOO o OOOOOOOOOOOO o OOOO ...... 58 12. Percent distribution of economically activepopulation in Guatemala by branch of economic activity and by major occupational group, 1950... OOOOO ...... 60

Charts: 1. Trends in employment, by industry division1940-60, and projections to 1970--Hillandale...... OOOOOOO 24 2.Trends in percentage distribution ofemployment, by industry division 1940-60, and projections to1970--Hillandale 25 3. Scatter diagram of total nonagricultural employmentand manufacturing employment, 1951 through1960--Hillandale 27 The Forecasting of ManpowerRequirements

Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION

The ultimatesuccess of a pro- Eanover resources..The number of gram for economic andsocial develop- peopleavailable at a specific date ment will depend, in largemeasure, to perform the work of the Nation; on theavailatdlity of manpower pos- in the case of forecasts, the number sessing specific skills and training. expected under,stated assumptions to Moreover, thetrainingofskilled be available ata specificfuture manpower must be anintegral part of date; in other words, the supply of anoverall development planif that manpower. plan is to succeed. Man ower re uirements. The demand This handbook* isdesignedto for manpower; the estimated numbers assisteconomists and statisticians requiredat a specific date to per- in the economically developing coun- form the workof the Nation to im- tries in initiating andconducting plement the industrial, economic, studiesfor determining future man- and social development anticipated. powerrequirementsinrelation to anticipated development. It outlines The Marlpower PrOjem a method of estimatingfuture manpower requirements byoccupation and Vigorous efforts are being made industry and.future training require- in many countriesbyleadersof ments for high-level occupations. government, education, industry, and labor to accelerate the rate of eco- The following terms are used in nomic, social, and industrial devel- this handbook as defined: opment. The ultimategoal of such programs is to benefit thepeople of ManDower. Manpower is aneconomic the country by raising the standards resource just as material, equipment, electrical energy, and money are *Valuable assistance in the prep- economic resources. Manpower in the aration of this manual was provided economic senseisthe managerial, byother Bureau staff members, par- scientific, engineering, technical, ticularly Harold Goldstein, Chief of skilledand other personnel employed the Division of Manpower and Employ- in creating, designing, developing, ment Statistics and Howard Rosen of managing and operating productive and that Division; and by staff members service enterprisesand economic in- of the Division of Productivity and stitutions. Technological Developments. The Forecast. Anestimate of a given authoralso wishes toacknowledge variableat some future datebased thehelp of theBureau of Interna- upon certain assurptions andeconomic tional Labor Affairs,the Bureau of analysis,with a largeelement of EmploymentSecurity; the Interna- humanjudgment; used assynonymous tional Labour Organization; and the with the term projection. Agency for International Development.

1 of living while at thesame time pre- 8. Widespread underemployment servingthe basic freedoms andre- in rural areas, affecting particu- specting the dignity of theindivid- larly agricultural laborers and ual. owners of small farms, caused mainly by the smallness of most farms and The dearthof trained manpower by seasonal fluctuations of activity: has been a deterrent to theexpansion of social services, education, and For example themanpowerprob- industry. Manpower shortages limit lem in Pakistanis summarized in therate offuture growthinmany the following words: countries. Lack of trainedmanpower In summary, the key problems maybe more of a limitingfactor to to be dealt with are threefold: future growth than shortagesof capi- (1) provisionof high-level tal or naturalresources. manpower for the critically important administrative, techni- The particular situation varies cal and educational work of de- from countryto country, but certain velopmentand nation-building, elements are cormon to many, such as togetherwith the following: intermediate- levelsupporting occupatjons; ,1. A shortageof persons (2) provision ofthe skilled adequately educated in certainpro- workers, artisans,craftsmen fessional andtechnical occupations, and operatives required forin- particularly scientists, engineers, dustrialdevelopment; and (3) teachers, physicians, nurses, and utilization of the massivere- other health service personnel. serves of underemployed and 2. un- More people educated in law employedlabour which and consti- the liberal arts than the denand tute the greatest potential calls for. resources of the nation. 2./ 3. A shortage of subprofes- sionalworkersto serveas techni- jj "Underemploymentexists when cians, laboratory assistants, fore- persons inemployment men, and supervisors. who arenot working ful3 timewould be able and 4. A shortage of adrinistrative, willingto do more work thanthey executivy, and managerial personnel. are actually performing,or when the 5. In clerical occupations, a income or productivity ofpersons in shortage of stenographers, bookkeep- employment would beraised if they ers, and skilled office machine oper- worked under improvedconditions of ators,but more untrsined people seek- production, or transferred to ing workin the less skilled white- anotheroccupation, accountbeing collar jobs thancan find work. taken of their occupationalskills." 6. A shortage of craftsmen and Quotedfrom ResolutionConcerning skilled workers such as machinists, the Measurement ofUnderemployment mechanics, machine-repairmen, talec- adoptedby the Ninth International triaans, and plumbers. ConferenceofLabour Statisticians 7. A great number of unskilled (Geneva, April-May,1957). and semiskilledworkers in cities, a/ PlanningComnission, Paki- creatingwidespread unemployment and stan, Develo ment andUtilization of underemployment. 1/ Manoower Karachi, 1960 p. 2.

2 Liptpal Data Desirablefor A Manpower Prozram forEconomic Developpent EAARQUIr_EMTAMR Among the functionsof a man- A manpower program fordevelop- power program, noneis ,more essential ing countriesshould be designed to to effective planningand administra- formulate amanpower planinthe tionthan obtainingthe facts upon light of political, economic, and whichto base action. I/ If basic social objectives; todevelop man- statisticsare notavailable, one of power througheducating new genera- the first steps mustbeeto establish tions andtraining those alreadyin or improveexisting programs for pro- the labor force; to make proper use viding reliablecurrentdata.The of existingskills and toutilize basic statisticalprogram anddata the underemployed andunemployed; to usually required forthis purpose are distribute manpowerthrough guidance listed below. andassistancein job placement, with particularattention tothe specially skilledand to high- To provlde a and ana- ansug_g_mpulation. priority work; to collect basic count of thepopulation for the statistics in order to lyze manpower countryand itsgeographicaldivl- anticipate manpower identify and classified by; (a) sex and special man- sions; problems; to provide age;(b) level of education completed; services for high-level mana- power and (c) occupationand industrial at- and scien- gerial, administrative, tachment. tific technical manpower;and to es- machinery for tablish administrative Censuses ofaRriculture, manufactur- carrying out the program. ing _mining. and commerce. To provide data onemploynantby industry and Sol d3,/ Harold Goldstein in relation tothe volume of produc- Lon -Term Pro- Swerdloff, Methods of tion. jectionof Reapirements for and and Supply of Profe sionalSkil3ed To pre- Household surve s oflabor force. OgamilighlthrLned Manpower number of persons Directorate, provide data on the paredfor the rampower during a specified Affairs, Republic in the labor force Ministry of Eome (a) sex and 1959)1, Ch. VI, "Basic Man- period, classified by, of India, (em- of age;(b) sex, employment status powerStatistics forAnalysis ployed, ,unemployed, ornot in the Manpower ResoUrces and Require- labor force); and(c) type of worker, ments," pp. 63-104. (self-employed, employee, United Nations,Statistical Series if employed family worker); (d) reason for the Use of LessDevelopedCoun- or unpaid part-time employmentif not em- tries in Pro ranmes of Economic and for full tira; and (e) education Social Development NewYork, 1959), ployed training. Statistical PapersSeries M, No. 31. or special

3 4

to thevarious par- and other _adminis- recommendations Social security in the manpowerprogram, trative repata. Toprovide data on ticipants theresponsibleofficials must pro- employmentin industries coveredby vide as accurate an estimate aspos- legislative programs such as social sible of the futuremanpowerneeds. security and factoryinspection. It is of particularimportance to es- people will beneeded Establishment surveys ofemployment. timate how many the professional, technical, and hours1 and earnings.To provide data in skilled occupations. Since it takes on the numberof employeesin the many yearsto educateand train countryandineach major area, people fortheseoccupations, the classifiedby type of economic ac- need must beanticipated sufficiently tivity; averageweeklyorhourly far in advance toallow time forthat earningsin majoreconomic activi- training. Failure to anticipatethe ties; and averageweekly hours in needand developthe required high major economicactivities. level manpower mayseriously impede economic progress. A continuing_ programof labor market reports. To providedata on labor supply and demand inspecificareas by occupation andindustry. Theassessmentof future manpowerrequirements must be ajudgment, To Llystem of vital statistics. or a seriesof judgments, based upon provide data onbirths, by sex, and experience andexpectations of future on deaths,by sex and age. developments. These judgmentsmust be made without anymagic formula or A reporting programby educational prophetic powers. The person making dataon institutions. Toprovide the judgments,designated here asthe including enrollmentat all levels, analyst, should have a fairlyexten- scientific, and techni- vocational, siveknowledge ofcurrent develop- cal training institutions. ments in his country,and the aspira- tions of the peopleand their government. He should bethoroughly famil- Lreortiommn iar with theprevailing social, po- and emi ration.To provide informa- litical, economic, andreligious pat- tion onnet additionsor lossesto terns. He should makejudgments only the labor force by sex,age, and oc- after considerationof the opinions cupation. ofexperienced observers in various sectors of the economy. He analyzes .Anticipating Future As the statisticsrelating to allas- anduses all the The government of adeveloping pects of manpower at his command. additional function. statistical techniques country has an future provide facts about In the end, his evaluation of Not only must it is only an es- the current and past manpowersitua- manpowerrequirements subject to error. But such tions, it must make anassessment of timate, an assessmentprovides a sounder the manpower requirementsof the fu- basis for decisionand action than ture. In order to establish anef- any alternativeevaluation. fective program andmake sound 4 The goal is to foresee as clear- 1L._ : i; ly as possible the occupational Deeds gam:lower igNstry occunstion. of the future; theindustriesin Each developing country has ita own which people will work wad the skills partieularprogram for industrial they will need to contribute most ef- development, whether or notthere is fectively to thecountry's develop- an official development plan. The nemtp while at the same tine provid- question to be answered is: What are ing for themselves and their families. the manpower implications of the an- ticipateddevelopment? Theanswer Tba principalelements of the shouldbe soughtby carr7ing out an program of manpower studies are: intensive analysis of the economy as a whole and ofallimportant industries to determine the expected level Ar initial asse8sment...9f oment.m: of production and theresulting de- 21232221-14-11421-#2r....-W1-2013241.941. mand for personnel. Special atten- Realistic planning requires a knowl- tion should be devoted to occupations edge of current employment: the num- in tbehigh-level technical and ber employed in professional, techni- skilled categories. cal, administrAtive, and skilled oc- cupationsat thepresent tine or in apa estimate of training recuiremepts. thereeent past; the industriesin A comparison between the anticipated which thesepeopleare employei; demand for newentrants toeach oc- identification of theoccupations in cupation requiringeducation and which unfilled vacancies exist; the training and the estimated supply of extent of the shortage of qualified people entering the occupation indi- personnel. In some countries these cates the extent of theanticipated data may be derived by special census shortage OT surplus. On the basis of tabulations; in other countriesit such a comparison, training require- may benecessary to conduct a survey ments canbe estimatedfor each im- of establishments. As part ofsuch portant occupation. an establishmentsurvey, employers nay be asked to estimatetheir future 212PEieraelon-s in requirements for skilled and special- Forecasting ized workers. Forecasts can notpredictthe Lsilatisand future withcompleteaccuracy, no labor force. The rate of population matter howcarefullyand intelli- growth will determine the size of the gently they are made. Buteven future labor force. Projections of though imperfect, forecasts will pro- populationby age and sexshould be vide valuableinsights intothe fu- nade; the estinated rates of partici- ture manpower situation and will re- pation in thelabor force by various sult in information which cangive age-sex groups provide an estimateof meaningfulguidance topolicy deci- the future labor force. sions. It is important that forecasts

5 Industrialists and business- be made withoutwaiting for an unat- 5. in long-rangeplans for tainable degreeof perfectionin men, to aid investment, expansion, andtraining. methods, data, orconclusions. 6. Labor unions andprofessional societies, to gainunderstand- All forecastsmust becontin- industrial andoc- ually reviewedand revised in the ing of changing light of new informationand unfore- cupational patterns. Vocationalcounselors, to seen developments. A forecast which 7. provide thebasis for advising young ispublished today may be obsolete soon after itis published. There- people. Young peopleand their par- fore, the forecasting agency has the 8. in making vocational function of seeking newdata, evalua- ents, to assist ting new occurences,and modifying choices. the forecasts at regularand frequent intervals. se t ns RelA.gluil,,Q.edfor Forecasts The forecasts will be ofinter- The events of the faure arede- est to many diverse groupsand should pendent upon thousands ofunpredict- be given wide distribution,both for thereis no way to the benefit of eachgroup and to in- able factors; eliminatethe uncertainties. For vitereview and suggestionsfor im- of the forecasts, however, provement. An interest in the con- purposes is necessary to make aseries of clusions of the forecast may predis- it assumptions regarding futurenational, pose theeventual users to be cooper- and economicevents. ative insupplyinginformationand political, assumptions must be will focus attentionon the valueof Obviously the the situationineach collecting basicstatistics in their madeto fit The followingare sugges- respective fields. Usersof the country. forecasts will include: tive only: be no 1. The government planning Natural events. There will agency, toazsistin theplanning major earthquake, famine,fire, flood, process. or otherdisaster. 2. Thegovernmentagency re- Politicalevents. There will be no sponsible for stimulating and assist- major war and nointernalpolitical ingindustrial development, to help upheaval. determine the manpower feasibility of specific projects. There will be a 3. Other government officials Economic conditions. fundamental eco- at national and local levels, to continuation of the in the country identify the manpower problems relat- nomic forces operating of economic ing to each kind of publicservice. (i.e., a continuation produces goodsand 4. Educators at all levels from activity which and the demand forlabor). primary through university,to assist services, There will be no majorinternal or in planning and administering education and training. international depression.

6 To as- In addition to thesebasic as- 2. Commodity targets. oftargets inthe sumptions, manpower forecasting re- sume attainment for quires somewhat moredetailedas- plan provides an output estimate sumptions having to do witheconomic the future date in major commodities. Targets for specific serv- activities. 3. ices. Assuming the attainment of a specificlevelofeducation and the official development Dian. One pur- health services as envisioned by planprovides abasis poseof forecasts of manpower re- development quirements is to determinethe fea- forestimating the number of teach- sibility of expansion plans. There- ers, physicians, and other related required at the future fore the goals of theeconomic de- occupations if the plan velopment plan, if any, can become date. Forexample, assumptions of the forecast. Inoth- calls for aspecific number of pu- this can er words, the forecast willanswer pils in secondary schools, requirements for the question, "To attain a specific be converted into goal as envisioned by theplan2 how teachers. will be required, in many people Foreien trade. If theeconomyis which industries, and with whut par- gearedto the sale of one or more characteris- ticular occupational major commodities in foreign markets tics?" it would beunrealistic to make any The goals in economic develop- forecastwithouttaking account of ment plans maybe expressedin a thevolume of exports. It is im- number of different ways: possible to foresee fluctuations in it 1. Gross national product(or the demand for such products, yet of the gross domesticproduct). An assumed is well known that a collapse economic growthrate fortheeconomy as a export marketwould be an When this wholeprovides a controlagainst disaster for the country. which forecasts canbe checkedto situation exists, it is essential to the prevent an unrealistic overall esti- makean assumptionregarding Similarly, matefor the future date. The as- volume ofsuch exports. influ- sumption of anoverall growth rate where importsexert a major internal economy, it may implies thatthe conditionsneces- ence on the sary for economicdevelopment will be necessary to limit the uncertain- prevail; that capital will be avail- ties involved by assuming agiven commodi- able, and that the general economic level of imports of major environmentwill be favorable. If ties. the assumed rate ofincrease in Other assumptions. Specific assump- gross nationalproduct is greater tions must be made as to the sizeof than the rateof population growth, the Armed Forces at the future date, this implies an increase in per cap- the level of unemployment, the hours itaLicome. Increased percapita of work, and outputper man-hour. income may bring an increaseddemand These will be discussed morefully for food, clothing, shelter, educa- in the textas the needforsuch tion, and health services. specific assumptions arises.

7 Illustrative Assumptions, 1. A continuation of the relatively high levels of eco- As illustrations, general as- nomicactivity and employment sumptions forCeylon and the United whichhave prevailedin the States arereproduced below, from United States forthe past 15 published documents. years, consistentwith the goals expressedin the Employ- Ceylon reports the following ment Act of 1946 Li basicassumptionsrelated to eco- 2. A continuation of nomic projections for the year 1968, scientific and technological the endyear of the current 10-year advance, affecting ourindus- plan: trial methodsof production, our medical, health, and educational services, and ourcon- 1. That during the 10- sumption patterns. year period 1959-68 there will 3. The absence of war or be no serious international anyother cataclysmic event depression; which would substantially alter 2. That Ceylon's terms the rate ofour economic on theaverage of trade will growth. 2/ be equal to those of 1957; 3. That outsideassis- tance in respect of skills and Choice of a Forecast Year finance will be forthcoming in sufficient degree; The future year for which man- 4. That between 1957 and powerresources and requirements 1958 populationand thework will be forecastshould be chosen forcewillincrease hy 38.2 with several considerations in mind: percent and 37.8 percent, respectively. 4,/ A/ Note the use of population 5. That the financial and andlabor forceprojections as one monetary policyof the govern- of the assumptions for economic pro- ment will be geared to the im- jections. plementation of the plany 51 United Nations, Economic and 6. That defensecommit- Social Council, World "lonomic Situ- mentswillimpose relatively ation. Evaluation of Long-Term Eco- limited strain on resources; nomic Pro'ections(New York, 23 June, 7. That the determined 1960). E 3379 Add:3, Reply of Cey- efforts required of both the lon. p. 14. governmentand thepeople for 6/ In theEmploymentAct of ( therealization of theplan 1946, the Federal Government assumed would be forthcoming. 51 responsibilityfor the creation and maintenance of conditions under Similarly, the basic assump- which the country could achieve max- tions for projecting manpower needs imum employment and production. and resourcesof the United States 2/ United States, Department of for the1960's were spelledout as Labor, Manpower Challengeof the follows: 1960' (Washington, 1960). p. 1. 1. If there is an official de- 4. Population and labor force velopment plan, the forecast year projecions are usuany madefor shouldbe the target yearofthe everyfifth year after the most re- plan, since manpowerrequirements centcensus ofpopulation. It is will berelated to thetargets ex- MOTconvenient, but not essential, pressed or implied in the plan. toforecast manpower requirements 2. The forecast year should be r 1 of those years. If there are sufficiently far in the future, per- oodreasons forchoosingother haps 10years, to allow adequate years, population and laborforce lead time forthe training and edu- estimates forintervening years can cation of professional and technical be derived by interpolation between personnel. 2 of the 5-year points. 3. The reliabi3ity of thefore- 5. Forecasts canbe made for casts diminishesas theforecast more than 1 future year if desired, year extends further intothe future. for instance, 1965, 1970, and 1975. Neverthelessa forecast of15 or However, in this textthe forecast even20 years maybe justified to date will bereferred to as only 1 gain some insightinto the problems year, assuming thatit will be 10 of the long-range future. years from the base year.

9 Chapter II. FORECASTING FANPOW711 REQUIREMENTS BY INDUSTRY AND OCCUPATION; SUMMARY AND VETHOD APPLICABILITY

The forecasting of manpower re- EY Methods of projecting popu- quirements is more than the mere relation and labor force are described cordingof statisticsandthe ap- in a forthcoming manual (in this plicationofstandardstatistical series) to beentitled Demographic techniques. Rather, it is the piec- Technioues for Manpower Planning in ing together of relevant information ptveloning Countries, hy the Bureau and available statistical facts; the of EMployment Security. economicanalysisofthis body of 2/Classification hyeconomic information leading to aseriesof activity in the forecast will depend judgmentsregardingtherateand upon the classification system used characteristicsof economic growth; in eachcountry. For purposes of and finallor the evaluationof the illustration, this paper will use net effectof alltheseforces on theI ternationalStandardIndus- manpower requirements in the fUture. trial Classification of All Economic Themethod presented in this manual Activities New York, 1958)United reliesheavily on economic analysis Nations, Statistical Papers, Series and human judgment, anduses what- M, No. 41 Rev. 1. See appendix. ever statistical techniquesare j0,/ The occupational classifi- availableandapplicable to assist cation used hereis International in making a common sense evaluation Labour Office, International Stand- of future needs and resources. ardClassificationofOccupations (Geneva, 1958). 111 For instance, Input-Output The methodsuggested here be- Analysis is an elaborate method of gins with theassumption thattwo projectingactivity levelsof de- things are available: tailed industry sectors of an econo- 1 An estimate of the labor my andtranslating these activity force in the forecast year.pj levels into employment requirements. The structure of employment Thistechnique is outside the scope by economic activity2/at the pres- of this paper. Fora description ent time, or inthe recent past, see: classified in whatever detail is de- (a) W. Duane Evans and Marvin sired in the forecast. Hoffenberg, "The Interindustry Rela- tions Study for 1947,The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 19529 The end product is to be (1) an pp. 57-142. estimate ofemployment hyeconomic (b) Conference on Research in activity and occupation .1,Q,at a Income and Wealth, "Input-Output An- specific fUture date, and2) an es- alysis: AnAppraisal," 'Studies timate of the number of people who Income and Wealth, Vol. 18 Prince- should betrained foreach major ton University Press, 1955). occupation. (c) TiborBarna, editor, The StructuralInterdependenceof the The intermediatesteps may be EICOnOMY; Proceedings of an interna- as simple or as complex as the sta- tionalconference on input-output tistical resources of thecountry analysis,Varenna, June-July 1954 permit.11/ (New York, Wiley, 1956). 10 Summary of Method 13.0-8.1.1.Latthe The method to be presented in thismanualcanbe surmarized in The detailed, practical appli- five steps. Detailed descriptions cation of thegeneral methodout- of each step areinchapters III- linedabove willbedetermined in VII. each country hy the statistical data available. Although the availabil- Step 1. Derive a rough first ityof reliable, basic statistics approximation of the future employ- shouldlead tomore accurate man- ment structure by economic activity, power forecasts, it is recognized consistent with the anticipated in- that a country may require such crease in the labor force. forecasts even when basicdata are not availableorare incomplete. Step 2.Make a detailed analy- The analyst will therefore face one sis of each important econoric ac- of the following three conditions of tivity, taking into account antici- data availability and will adapt the patedchanges indemand for its procedure accordingly: productsor servicesand inhours worked and productivity; thus arriving at an estimate of future employ- Condition 1. No statistics of ment. employmenthy economic activity for theoverall economy are available. Step 3.Modify the firstap- Employment statistics forselected proximations of future employment in industries only are available. accordancewith the results of the detailed analysis of eachimportant activity. Nhen statistics for the overall economy are lacking, the method pre- Step 4. Derive an occupation- sented here is only partially appli- al breakdown ofemployment ineach cable. The forecast must be economicactivity in the future anchored to whatever statisticsare period hy applying thebest avail- available for the important indus- able occupational compositionpat- tries in the country. It is recom- terns, with particular attention to mended thatan analysis be made of all occupations requiring special- each industry which employs oris ized training or education.Sum the expectedto employ in. the fUture, estimatesofeach occupation from persons in the occupational categor- the various economic activities. ies in short supply. The type of Step 5. Estimate training re - analysis tobe made is described in quirenentsfor each important occu- chapter IV. The lack of adequate pationhy analysis of the probable statistical data, and the difficulty supply of qualified workersunder encountered in making an analysis of existingtrainingarrangements and this kindshouldnotdeter the facilities in comparison with the analystfrom proceeding in this im- requirements as indicated by occupa- portantfield of work. Available tional estimates for the future data, no matter how crude and sparse, period. when combined with practical

11 the pointof de- judgment of those bestinformed, and ofemployment is The care andingenuity, parture in making theforecast. analyzed with is ex- provide valuableinsights into futureemployment structure can similar in many of its the future manpowersituation. pected to be characteristics to the current expected It may be particularlyhelpful, structure because ofthe economic when statistics arelacking, to sub- continuity infundamental the statisticsfrom other forces. Therefore, it is possible stitute basis of countries. For purposes of analysis tomake a forecast on the andestimated it would be possible, for instance, current statistics from ex- to makean assumptionthat thein- future changesresulting dustrial distribution within agiven pected operatingschedules or from The sector of the economy isthe same as the economicdevelopment plan. in that of another countrywith similar five-step procedure described can befollowed. economic structureand at a similar chapters III-VII stage of economic development, for Statistics of em- which statisticsare available; or Condition 3. that the economy 10 years hencewill ployment by economicactivity are base year and for have someof the samecharacteris- available for the tics the similarcountry has cur- 1 or more previous years. rently. This technique was used in fragmentary historical a fairly recentstudyof Puerto Even added insight into Rico. 12/ It was assumed that the statisticsgive The nonagricultural economyof Puerto theoperation of the economy. for Ricoin 1775 would have manyof the factors which affect the demand their same characteristicsas that of the labor are subtle and complex; United States in 1950. This hypoth- interactions are unique to the esis provided a basis foranalysis. social, political, and economic en- vironment peculiar to eachcountry. expected to To analysts in countries where Thesefactorscan be in basic statistics are inadequate,it continue to exert their influence somewhat the same way in thefuture, is suggested that astudy of the since they change slowly evenunder method outlined here may be useful; development. it may suggestways inwhichthe the impactof rapid Therefore it is reasonable to postu- availabledata can beused; and it approximation of the mayfocus attention moreemphatic- latea first structure of employmentby allyon the need forstatistical future pasttrends and making data. extending appropriate modifications consistent The proce- godition 2. Statistics of emm, wtth foreseeable events. here seeks to make ploymentby economic activity for a dure recommended maximum use of availablestatistics. baseyear are available, but there are no historicalstatistics. on This condition may occur in a/PuertoRico Committee which have only re- Human Resources, Puerto Ricols Man- some countries San Juan, centlybegun the collection ofsta- moyer Needs andSupplY tistics.The base-year distribution 1957). 134 pp

12 Chapter III. FIRST APPROXIMATION OF EMPLOWITT BY ECONOMICACTIVITY IN A FUTURE YEAR (STEP 1)

Derive arough first approxi- an estimate which isconsistent with mationof the future employment his general assumptions. Sometimes structure by economicactivity, con- the analyst uses the official target sistent with the anticipated increase figureunder a specifiedplan for in the labor force. his estimate. He may assume there is no change fromthe current level. Or It is assumed that a labor force he may assume a level equal tothe projection forthe forecast year has average rate of unemployment in re- been made. A first approximation of cent good years. the employment in eacheconomic ac- tivityin theforecast year can be For example, in the Vanoni Plan derived by constructing a hypotheti- of Italy, which is a program for the calmodel of thestructure of that development of employment and income future labor force. This model is in Italyfor the period 1955-64, it designed to serve as a framework into is estimatedthat, in theterminal whichcanbe fitted thevarious year 1964, unemploymentwill fluctu- pieces of the moredetailed analysis ate at about 3 percent a year.iv in the second step. In the UnitedStates, when economic conditions have been good, the unemployment rate has been between 3 and Procedure for Estimating Total 4 percentof thecivilianlabor Civilian Employment in the Future force; in making its economic pro- Year jections, the Bureau ofLabor Sta- tisticsassumesunemploymentat 4 Total labor force. Begin with percent in 1965, 1970, and 1975. theprojectedestimate of the total (See table 1.) labor force in the future year. Civilian labor force minus the Deduct number in the Armed Fore- unemployed equals total civilian em- gg. Make an estimate of the number PloYment. Presented in table 1 are in theArmed Forcesin the future the projections oftotalcivilian year on thebasis of the assumptions employment for the United States previously made. It is customary to which werederived by this pro- assumea continuation of thebase or cedure. IA/ current level of the Armed Forces un- less thereis some reason to believe 1,2/ United Nations, Economic a change will occur. andSocial Council, World Economic Situation.Evaluation of Long4erm Total laborforce minusArmed Ecpnomic Prolections (NewYork,1959), Forces equals civilian labor force. E/3379/Add. 2.Reply of Italy,p. 27. 14/ Bureau of Labor Statistics, Deduct the number of unemployed. Manpower Nees and Resources of the There isno way for theanalyst to United States: 19604-1975. Summary of know the actual fUture level of unem- Findingsand Implications Un- ployment. He must, therefore, make published, May

13 Table 1.Employment and Unemployment in the United States, Actual 1957 and Projected, 1965-75

all imems in millions exce.m .erce m line Actual Projections Employment status 1957 196,5 1970 1975 Total labor force...... 70.7 7 . 87.1 .8 Armed Forces 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 Civilian labor force ...... 67.9 77.484.6 92.3 Uhemployment as percent of labor force 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 Unemployment 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 Total civilian employment 65.0 74.3 81.2 88.6

is a greatdeal of underemployment. Procedux.Esefxeakdown If a member of a farmfamily leaves of Civilian Employment by Wor the farm and takes a job in the city, Sector thereis usually noproportionate decline in the output of that farm. Having derivedan estimate of totalcivilianemployment forthe Toillustrate, consider the future year, the next step is to es- following quotation: timatethe allocationof that total to (1) agriculture, and (2) nonagri- InIndiaitis thought cultural economic activities. that, withthe bullocks and plows incommon use, 100 acres Employment in agriculture.11/ in grain can provide employment Generally, inthe highly industrial- for perhaps 15persons 'gain- ized countriespabout 15 to 30 percent fully employed' in agriculture, of thecivilian labor force isem- whereas the averagenumber ployed in agriculture. In the agri- 'gainfullyemployed' inIndia cultural countrieston the other hand, per 100 acres is about 30.Al- about60 to75 percent of the labor lowing for the factthat some force is soemployed. 16/ It is an ofIndia's agriculture is more almost universalphenomenon that the intensivethangrain, Indian proportionof employment in agricul- 01 1.5j In this discussion, agri- turedeclines as industrial develop- forestry, hunting, ment proceeds, even though the abso- culture includes lute number inagriculture may con- and fishing. tinuetoincreasewith expanding 16/ The volume.of agricultural population. employmentcannot be adequately described by a single figure, since it It should be noted that total changes from month to month.There- agricultural production continues to fore, in comparing various years, increase in developing countries even employment should be eitheran with a proportionate decline in agri- annualaverage, or theemployment cultural employment. Among agricul- level forthe same month ineach tural workersin all countries there year.

14 economists estimate conserva- Also, as agricultural methods tivelythat aquarterof the are improved - -better seeds and fer- rural population is surplus, in tilizers, more machinery, more sci- the sense that its removal from entific cultivation and irrigation-- the land would make no differ- outputperagricultural worker in- ence to agricultural output.rj creases. This improvement in productivity makes itpossible to in- r/William Arthur Lewis, As- creaseproduction with thesame sests_ofIndustrialization (Cairo, number, or even fewer workers. National Bank of Egypt, 1953),P. 8.

Table 2. United States: Gainful Workers .1j in Agricultural Occupations, V1820 to 1930

orkers in thousands) A:ricultural occumtions Year All workersNumber of workers Percent of all. workers 1820 I/2,881 2,069 71.8 1830 A/3,932 2,772 70.5 1840 ,.... 315,420 3,720 68.6 1850 317,697 4,902 63.7 1860 3J10,533 6,208 58.9 1870 5./ 12,925 6,850 53.0 1880 17,392 8,585 49.4 1890 .6/ 23,318 9,938 42.6 1900 29,073 10,912 37.5 1910 37,371 11,592 31.0 1920 42,434 11,449 27.0 1220 48 8 0 10 472 21.

Includes all persons 10 years of age andover who reported s.gainful occupation without regard to their workor work-seeking status. 2/ Data not adjusted for relativelyminor differences in agricultural and non agricultural occupations between 1820-1930 series. 31Figures estimated on basis of returns covering greater part of the population. A/ Figures basedPm interpolation between 1820 and 1840. 1/Includes additions due to estimated undernumeration in 13 Southern States. 6j Excludespersons in Indian Territory and on Indian reservations, areas specially enumerated at that census, but for which areas no occupation statistics are available.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census: Statistical Abstract of the United States. 1959,p. 205.

15 Table 3. Agricultural Employment jJ as Percent of the Economically Active Population a/ in Selected Countries, in Selected Years ...11. !.111...w.a. Per- Per- Country Country Year Year cent cent 111111=0.11.111MINIAIIIMMIt Africa America--Continued

Egypt 1937 70.7 Nicaragua 1940 73.1 1947 63.8 1950 67.7 Union of South Panama 1940 52.6 Africa (non- 1950 49.8 European popu- Venezuela 1941 51.2 lation) 1946 52.7 1950 41.3 1951 37.8 1955 37.9 1959 33.9 America Asia Brazil 1940 67.4 1950 60.6 India 1941 74.6 Chile 1940 35.6 1951 73.9 1952 29.6 Japan 1947 52.6 Colombia 1938 72.7 1955 40.3 1951 53.9 1959 39.7 Cuba 1943 41.5 Malaya. 1947 64.5 1953 41.5 1957 57.5 Ecuador 1950 53.1 Pakistan 1951 76.5 1960 53.2 1954-5664.7 Honduras 1950 83.1 Philippines 1939 72.9 1956 83.8 1948 65.7 Jamaica 1943 45.1 1959 59.0 1953 48.8 Thailand 1937 88.6 Mexico 1940 65.4 1947 84.8 1950 57.8 1954 88.0 1958 57.8 111111111110.1= 1/ Includes employers, workerson own account, salaried employees, and wage earners engaged in agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing. gj The definition of "economically active population" varies slightly from country to country. Exact definitions can be found in the source documents.

Sources: Annual Yearbook of Labour Statistics (Geneva: International Labour Office), Selected issues. The Economic Development of Venezuela (Baltimore, The Johns Hopkins Press, 1961), p. 474.

16 For exwmple, it has been estab- the lines into the future, freehand. lishedthat 1 United Statesfarm Such an estimate is likely to be su- worker produced enough forhimself perior toan ,estimatederivedby and3 othersat home and abroad in purely mathematical trend lines. 1820; for himself and 22 others in 1958.jegi Over the past century and Examine trends in agricultural a half, a steadily decliningper- employment from othercountries at centage of the laborforce of the various stages of economic develop- United States hasproduced an ever- ment.The relative numbers of work- increasingsupplyofagricultural ers engaged in agriculturevary products. widelyamong count#es; similarly, therate of change\,in thisratio For purposes of a forecast it over time varieswidely, so that it is necessary to estimate the ex- is impossible to generalize from the pected decline in the ratio of agri- statistics available. Nevertheless, cultural employment to total employ- it may be helpful to the analyst to mont.Tmo approaches to the problem studythe statistics from other are suggested: countries assembledin tables 2 and 3 which relateto the agricultural Examine past trends in agricul- employment invarious countries. turalemployment in the country be- Although it willbenoted that in the ing studied if thestatisticsare majority of countries the percentage available. It is usefulto con- inagriculture declined overtime, structa time series of the ratios no consistentpatternemerges from of agriculturalemployment to total those statistics toprovide general civilianemployment and to plot the guidancein makingthe forecast. twoseries on graph paper. It is However, as a guideto forecasting possible to project these beries by agricultural employment, the analyst fitting mathematical trend lines to may wish to utilizethe experience the historic data. But the behavior of a country which has had develop- of these series in futureyears is ment similar to that anticipated for likely to beinfluenced by the pace his country. 12/ a the development program. Hence it is necessaryto make a judgment EamlonimmUzLII&L....mamerlalk as to whether the movementfrom ag- tural sector of the economy.Having riculture will accelerate, continue derived estimates of both total ci- at the same pace, or slow down in vilian employment andagricultural the forecast period and then extend employmentat the future date, the residual becomesthe estimate of 1g/ U.S. Department of Labor, nonagricultural employment. This Bureau of Labor Statistics, Econo4c residualestimate isused as the Forces in the USA inFacts and Fig: basis for a further breakdowninto yag (Washington,1960). p. 134. industry divisions and industries. 12/ Fora detailed study of the movement of workers from agriculture Although agriculturalemploy- see Why Labour Leaves theLand (Ge- ment issubject to arelative de- neva International LabourOffice, cline in a developingeconomy, non- 1960S. agriculturalemployment is expected

17 to grow as developmentproceeds. are available), is to apply the per- The various sectors, excluding agri- centage distribution of current em- culture, can be expected tohave ployment by industry division to the growth patterns definitelyinterre- estimate of the future total nonag- lated, stimulatedby many ofthe ricultural employment. Implicit in same factors, affectedand limited this procedure is theassumption by the same influences. that employment inevery division will havethe samepercentagein- If, in any country, a specific crease as total employment. Al- set of circumstances suggests sep- though this is obviously not realis- aration at this point of another in- tic these proportionsdo have a tend- dustry division, separate treatment ency to remain relatively stable. is recommended.For example, it may It wouldbe unusual if they changed be knownthatcertain mineral re- drasticallyin a10-yearperiod. sources are being depleted by cur- The analyst can render such mechani- rentoperations tosuch anextent callycomputed estimates more rea- that future employment in the mining sonableby examiningeach division division is expected to decline. In separately and introducing whatever such a case it is advisable to esti- commonsense judgmentsseem to be mate future employment in that divi- indicated, on thebasis of his gen- sionbased uponthe unique circum- eral knowledge ofdevelopmentsin stances, subtract that estimate from the country. the total, andcontinue the procedure with the residual total. In a matureeconomy, the proportion that employment in manufacturing (or inconstraction or com- Procedure for nplonent merce,etc.) constitutesoftotal 1101LIkilia10112....W.1111141. in Rela- nonagricultural employmentusually tion to Total Nona ricultural Em- remains remarkablystable overa ployment period of years, even when considerable growth takes place. In a devel- The previous action has yielded oping country, however, the propor- an estimate of employmentin the tionsmaybe expectedto change nonagricultural sector of the econo- somewhat, but generally the changes my atthefuture date. The next will be foreseeable from increased rove is to estimatethe distribu- activity anticipated inparticular tion of that employmentby industry sectors of the economy. Since the division: Miningand quarrying; work habits and practices of the manufacturing; construction; elec- entire population areinvolved, the tricity, gas, water, and sanitary changeis likely to be slow even services; commerce; transport, stor- under the impact of a vigorous pro- age, and communications; andser- gram of economic development. vices. For example, Venezuela experi- ProJections based on base year enceddynamic economicgrowth in employment structure. The simplest the decade ofthe 19501swithan procedure, to be used underCondi- average increaseof 4 percent a tion 2 (erhen no historical statistics yearinbothpopulation andper

18 dynamically changing capita income. The increase in per In this capita incomewas dueprimarily to situation, total nonagricultural em- 50 per- the oil industry, which in1959 con- ployment increased more than to 1959 stituted 20 percent of grossnation- centin the 9years 1950 in thepe- al product and 90percent ofthe (table 4). Employment remainedalmost country's exports.goi troleum industry level during that period;employment 2.(2/ International Bank for Re- more than doubledin mining (except constructionandDevelopment, The petroleum),gi/ construction, and Economic Develapentof Venezuela electricity and water. Employment (iaTiMore, JohnsHopkinsPress, increased to somedegree in all in- 1961). 494 pp. dustry divisions. Yet thepropor- 21/ In the International Stand- tionate distribution by industry di- ard Industrial Classificationof All vision in 1959is not markedly dif. Economic Activitiesthe extraction ferent from that in 1950; there is a of crudepetroleumandoil well significant continuity inthe gen- operationsare classified in the erallevels ofthe proportions of mining industry division. In the each division. report on Venezuela, petroleum is shown separately.

Work Force, Table 4.Venezuela: EstimatedDistribution of the Nonagricultural 1950, 1955, and 1959

bnplcgment(inthousa440- Percent 192.111AgN ACTIVITY 1950 1955 1959 1930 L.192.19 1.950.E.1201 Total nonagricul- 100.0 1 . tural employment895.2 1 12 . 1 71.0100.0100.0 0.6 0.8 0.0 205.3 Mining 5.7 9.6 11.7 4.8 3.8 3.1 100.9 Petroleum * 42.7 42.8 43.1 21.6 19.0 126.1 Manufacturing 206.9 243.7 261.0 23.1 10.3 13.6 205.0 Construction 91.1 116.2 186.8 10.2 Electricity and .7 .9 238.0 water 5.0 7.9 11.9 .6 17.7 18.2 166.4 Commerce 149.7 199.4 249.1 16.7 Transport and 6.2 163.7 communications 52.3 75.2 85.6 5.8 6.7 38.5 38.1 152.7 Services 341.8 434.9 521.8 38.2

Source: International Bank forReconstruction and Development,13hek...: onomic Develompent ofVenezuela (Baltimore, JohnsHopkins Press, 1961 p p. 474.

19 OM'

To illustrate the various pro- current economy and thechanges he cedures suggested here, it is as- anticipates. He may consultwith sumed that a fictional land of Hill- appropriate people in the government andale had thefollowing structure orin the constructionindustry to of nonagriculturalemploymentin determine theirexpectations. He 1960: will weigh theiropinions as to availabilityofcapital, building Employ- materials, and labor, expected ment Percent trends inproductivity, andall

(in thou- of factors affecting growth. The , sands) total constructiondivision in 1960 con- stitutes 7.2 percentof total non- Total OOOOO 0 agricultural employment; applying Mining and this percentage to the 1970 estimate of totalnonagricultural employment quarrying.. 8 2.2 Manufacturing 40 11.1 (7.2 percent of 433,000)0 he derives Construction. 26 7.2 an estimateof 31,200. He studies Electricity, gas, the followingalternative projec- water, and sani- tions: tary services 11 3.0 Commerce 142 39.3 Construction employment Transport, storage and com-. Number munications 20 5.5 (in thaasands) Services. 114 31.6 1960000000 OOOOOOO 26 An analyst in Hillandale is 1970 (alternative making a forecast for the year 1970. projections)... 31:.2 It has beenestimatedthat total 33 og nonagriculturalemploymant will in- 36.4 crease from 361,000in 1960 to 39.0 433,000 in 1970. He has no historical employment statistics, but must Peremt Index make hisforecast on thebasis of of 'total (1960=100) the 1960 statistics. He begins with the construction division. At this 1960 7.2 100 stage he will not make a detailed 1970 (alternative study of each component of the in- projections) 7.2 120 dustry. Rather, he will postulate 7.8 130 itsgrowth as a wholeon the basis 8.4 140 ofhis generalknowledge ofthe 9.0 150

20 He believes that construction industry division, historicalem- employmentwill increasemore than ployment data may be analyzed in the general level, but the difficult several ways. The following illus- question is how much more. He can- trations are for the fictionalland not know with any degree of certain- of Hillandale. ty; he simply chooses one of the al- ternatives, whichever inhis judg- Trends innumberemploze_d_in ment seemsmost reasonable, as the each industry_division. Examine the first approximation. trend of employment in each industry division. Plot atime series of Similarly he makes a projection total nonagricultural employment and for each of the other industry divi- of employment in each industry divisions: sion, preferably on semilogarithmic Mining and quarrying; graph paper. Use the previously de- Manufacturing; rived estimate oftotal nonagricul- Electricity, gas, water, and turalemployment for the forecast sanitary services; year to extendthat line to the fu- Commerce; ture date. Then, being influenced Transport, storage, and by the slope of that line, and by a communication; and judgment as to the effect of current Services. and anticipated changes occurring in the economy,make a freehand exten- In table 5 aprojection which sion ofeach divisionline to the could have been derived in this man- forecast date. This is obviously a ner is presented as Projection No.1. subjective operation; no two people In this example it has been assumed will achieve exactly the samere- that substantialincreases will sult. Read from the chart the es- occur in manufacturing,construction, timatedemployment farthe future and mining; that these growing pro- year, and adjust these estimates so ductive industries willgenerate that they add to the projected total. growth in electricity, gas, water, and sanitary services; and in trans- In the illustration (chart 1) port, storage, and communication; it was assumed that data were avail- thattwodivisions, commerceand able for 5previous years; and em- services, willshowadecline in ployment in each industry division relative importance. was plotted. In extending the lines Pro ection based on _base year for each division, more-than-general employmentstructure and historical growthin the productive andsup- trends. Under Condition-3-(11;tori- porting industry divisionswas as- calstatistics available), itis sumed; and less-than-general growth recommended that the historical sta- incommerce and services. The es- tisticsbe studied fortheir value timates so derived are shown as Pro- as indicators of future economic be- jection Ho. 2 in table 5. havior. Significant trends are usually discernible even when data are Trends in.. ratio of emDloyment availablefor only a few points in in each division tononagricultural time. As aids in deriving an esti- totalmplgyment. Compute the pro- mate ofthe future employment by portionate distributionof employment

21 Table 5. Alternative Projections to 1970: Eonagricultural Employment by'Industry Division in Hillandale

Kumber in thousands 1970 Industry division Base year 1960 Projection No. 1

Number I Percent Number Percent

Total nonagricultural employment 61 100.0 000 Mining and quarrying...., 8 2.2 10 2.3 Manufacturing 40 11.1 52 12.0 Construction 26 7.2 34 7.8 Electricity, gas, water, and sanitary services 11 3.0 14 3.2 Commerce 142 39.3 166 38.3 Transport, storage, and communications 20 5.5 25 5.8 Services 114 31.6 132 30.5

Jj Using 1960 percentage distribution modified by judgment. 2,./ Using trend in number employed at 5-year intervals. 3./ Using trend in percentage of total nonagricultural employment at 5-year intervals. 4./ Using regression techniques--10 years of data.

22 7-77 7:771=

Table 5. Alternative Projections to 1970: Nonagricultural Employment by Industry Division inHillandale--Continued

(Number in thousands)

1970 ...11.0.-41 Projection Projection Projection Industry No. 2 a/ No. 3 3,/ No.4 A/ division NumberPercentNumber PercentNumberPercent Total nonagricultural 433 100.0a433 100.0 433 100.0 employment. 10 2.3 11 2.5 10 2.3 Mining and quarrying. 55 12.7 52 12.0 49 11.3 Mhnufacturing. 35 8.0 35 8.0 33 7.6Construction. Electricity, gas, water, 14 3.2 15 3.5 14 3.2 and sanitary services. 160 37.0 161 37.2 169 39.0Commerce. Transport, storage, and 27 6.2 25 5.8 25 5.8 communications. 132 30.5 134 31.0 133 30.7Services.

5,/ Total independently projected.

Note: Because of rounding, sums of indivldualitems do not necessarily equal totals.

23 Chait 1. Trends in Employment, by Industry Division 1940-60 and Projection to 1970 Hillandale

Employmen1( Thousands)

Total Nonagricultural

Commerce

WPM OREM ...... Services

Manufacturing

6°4

Construction

.00 Transportation, 20 .00 Storage, and Communication Electricity, Gas, Water, and Sanitary Services ...40

JO .41 9 Aso. Mining 7 6

4 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970

24 Chart 2. Trends in Percentage Distribution of Employment, by Industry Division

1940-60 Projection to 1970 Hillandale

45 PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL

40 Commerce

Services 0.11==.1; Mim 30

15 Manufacturing

MOW. enea 10 1 Construction

'Transportation, Storage, land Communic tion MR.M...

Electricity, Gas, Water and SerlitalY-4Services

Mining 0 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 '1965 1970

25 by industry division ineach year Linear correlation or regret: for which data are available. Plot si9n anallgig. When more dataare these =portions in a tiffle series, available, it is possible to esti- one line for each industrydivision. matethe future employmentin each Afreehand extension of thetrend industry division bycorrelation line foreach industry can be made analysis, 22/ that is, by reference on the basis of the observed trend to past correlations between nonag- in the past, and the anticipated fu- riculturalemploymentandemploy- ture course of activity: Once again, mentin each division, and by pro- this isa subjective operation in- jectingthis relationshipinto the volving a judgment. These propor- future. tions are quite stable in a mature economy; theycan be expected to It is not surprising that there move slowly in a developing economy. is usuallya close correlation be- (See discussionof this point under tweenemployment in manufacturing, Projections based onbase year em- for example, and employment in total ployment structure on page 18.) nonagriculturalemployment, since the formeris one component of the When the lines for all industry latter. It is a reasonable expecta- divisions havebeep extended to the tion that an increase in one will be future year, extract from the chart accompanied by anincreasein the the ratios of employment in each di- other. This relationship can be ex- vision to total nonagricultural em- pressed mathematically 23/ and can ployment andadjust themto add to beused asa toolfor forecasting 100percent. The adjustedratios the level of employment in the manu- maybe appliedtotheprojected facturing division to be associated total nonagriculturalemployment to with a given level of total nonagri- provide a future estimate of employ- cultural employment. ment in each division. Forexample, assume that in This procedure is illustrated Hillandale the total nonagricultural in chart 2, using data for the fic- employment is estimated to be tional land of Hillandale for 5 pre- 433,000in 1970. The problem is to vious years, resulting in the ratios estimate employment in manufacturing and employment estimateswhich are associated with that estimate. The shownas Projection No. 3, table 5. first step is to make A scatter diagram, showing therelationship be- ga/ In theU.S. Department of tween thesetwovariablesinthe Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, past. (Variable X = total nonagri- this method isutilized only when cultural employment; Variable Y = data for 10 or more years are avail- manufacturing employment. See chart able. 3.)Each dot represents an observa- 23/ For a discussion of corre- tion for 1 past year. Thus, in the lationanalysis, seeany standard Hillandaleexample, observation A statistical textbook. For example: represents theyear 1951 when aver- Frederick J. CroxtonandDudley J. age manufacturingemploymentwas Cowden, Applied General Statistics, 30,000 and average total nonagricul- 2d. ed. (New York, Prentice-Hall, tural employment was 290,000 (table 1955). p. 451. 6). Similary a dot is placed to 26 Chart 3.Scatter Diagramof Total NonagriculturalEmployme]nt and ManufacturingEmployment, 1951 Through 1960 r. Hi llondale Manufacturing Employment (in thousands) 5 5

5 0

4 5

4 0

25 I I 250 300 350 400 450 500 Nonagricultural Employment (in thousands) Table 6. Computation of a Line of Regression ofManufacturing Employment on Total Nonagricultural Employmentin Hillandale, 1951-60

Total Average nonagriculturalmanufacturing Year employment employment X2 XY (in thousands) (in thousands) X Y

1951 290 30 84,100 8,700 1952 283 29 80,089 8,207 1953 289 31 83,521 8,959 1954...... 303 32 91,809 9,696 1955 307 33 94,249 10,131 1956...... 320 34 102,400 10,880 1957 333 36 110,889 11,988 1958 349 38 121,801 13,262 1959...... 351 38 123,201 13,338 1960 361 40 1322321 1440 Total 3,186 341 12022,380 149,601 =EX =Ey ...... __ Formula 2Y =Na + ba 341 = 10a 4. 417 =aZX +bIX2 -76 = 10a a = -7.6 341=10a + 3,186b 109,601=3,186a + 1,022,380b Y = a + bX Y = -7.6 + .131X 108,643=3,186a + 1,015,060b If X = 433 109,601=3,186a + 1,022,380b Then 958 =7,320b Y = -7.6 + 56.7 b =.131 Y = 49.1 represent each observation. If the fitted to the scatter diagram by use correlationbetween the two series of the following normal equations: is high, the dots will lie more or less along a straight line. If they I. Y = Na + bEX scatterwidely the correlation is II. zry = + loEX low, and this method isnot applicable. Table 6 shows the computations that are necessary to determine the The relationshipbetweenthe values to be substituted in these two variables is expressed by the equations. The substitution ydelds equation Y = a + bX. A line can be as follows:

28 I. 341 = 10a + 3,186b This procedure No a number of II. 109601 = 3186a + 1,022380b advantages. It allows for internal shifts in the economy and provides a Multiplication of all itemo in Equa- projection whichtakes into acdbunt tion Iby 318.6 permits the cancel- the interaction between divisions in lation of"a" bysubtracting Equa- the past. It isa more objective tion I from Equation 11. Thus: method thanthosepreviously described and does not depend upon the dif- IX. 109,601 1186a + 1,022,380b exerciseof humanjudgment; (1x318.6) 104643 1186a + 1,015,060b ferentpeople usingthis procedure will reach the same answer. There 958 = 7320b are also disadvantagesto the pro- b = .131 cedure:

Substituting in Equation I, the new It requires historical data. found value of "by" the value of "a" is found* Incountries inwhich eiploy- ment levels for the forecast period I. 341 = 10a + 417 are expected to behigher than ever a = -7.6 experienced, it is necessary to pro- jectwell beyond the past relation- The equation of the line is: ship. This is always risky; the nature of the relationships between Y = a + bX industries couldchange at signifi- = -7.6 + 131X cantly higher levels of activity.

New thepreviously estimated value This methodassumes that the of X (total nonagricultural employ- factors affectingemployment in the ment) for theyear 1970 in Milan- variousdivisions in the past, and dale (433,000 in 1970) can be sub- theinterrelationship amongthem, stituted in this equation: will continuetooperate withthe same impact in the future.Actually, Y = -7.6 + 56.7 it may be known that certain dynamic Y = 49. changes are likely to affectfuture employment in specific activities in Must manufacturingemploymentin a manner significantly different 1970 is estimatedto be49,000 if from past experience. The analyst total nonagriculturalemployment is may thereforefind it necessary to 433,000. modify the estimates on ajudgment basis. For example, he may know of A series ofsevenregression a technologicalinnovation in a analyseswill produceestimates of given industry that isexpected to employment inthe sevendivisions changeoutput per mem-hour signifi- associated with the projectedtotal cantly, thus affectingemployment nonagricultural employment. The trends in a way that is not antici- totalof the seven divisions will pated in the past trends of thein- equal the projected total. dustry.

29 division In the illustration, theesti- employment in each industry For example, mates have been computedfor Hillan- in the future period. will be dale on the basis of historicalsta- themanufacturing division into majorgroups as tistics for the 10 years, 1951-60. brokendown (except The estimates soderived arepre- follows: Food manufacturing beverage industries; sented asProjection No. 4 in table beverages); other groups. Like- 5. tobacco; and wise, the otherindustry divisions pracedte for EstimgmErnagyynat will be broken down intocomponent itih Industry in RelaitCa parts. ,koonftgiirtheaDiyisiana This procedure permitsorderly Depending upon the level of de- developmentof consistent, detailed first tail in the basic data, theproce- projections which constitute a dures described above may beused to approximationof the future employ- or economic relate each industry to itsdivision mentineach industry total, yielding a breakdown of activity.

30 Chapter IV. DETAILED ANALYSIS OF EACH IMPORTANT ACTIVITY (STEP 2)

Make adetailedanalysis of 8electimalommiLAcr4vitto eachimportant economic activity, 122.1zetaid taking into accountanticipated changes in the demand for its prod- In developingcountries there ucts or servicesandanticipated are usually two distinct sectorsof changes in hoursworked and produc- the economy: the traditionaland tivity, arriving atan estimate of the modern. the future employment. The traditional sector comprisesmainly peasant agri- Pref.ace culture, handicrafts and small- scaleindustry) and the finan- The projections of employment cial, transport, distribution yielded by the foregoingprocedure and other servicesassociated May be considered,assomeuhat crude withthese activities. It is first approximations.The next step roughly coterminouswith the is another way of making employment rural village economy, although estimates for the future.This step traditional handicrafts may ap- consists ofexamining each economic pear in cities aswell. It is activity and applying as much ana- characterized by high ratios of lytical skill and common sense judg- labourto capitalandoften ment as possible to an evaluation of also to land; by relatively future expectations.This must be a slow technological progress; by painstakinganalysis of factors af- littleor no capital accumula- fectingdemand for workers in each tion; and bylow productivity industry, an assessment of how these per man-year. The typical form factors may operatein the future) of productiveorganisation is and amodification of the projected the household. The modern employment levels based on judgment...... 011111111.- Ideally, if sufficient personnel and ga For examples of economic unlimited timewereavailable, an analyses of various sectors ofde- analysis could be made of each veloping economies see the series of minute activity. In practice, it is studiesprepared by the secretariat necessaryto concentrate on certain of the United Nations Economic Com- strategic industries, accepting the mission for Latin America:Analyses firstapproximation of employment and Projections of Economic Develoz for othersregardless of theirim- ment: I. AnIntroductionto the perfections. rainicii;e Of15-1-.0grart-ii Economic hevelo ment of BrairITITY7 The analysisof each economic Tre7M7Onomieeve opment ofColomai; activity willdepend largely upon IV. The Economic Development of Bo- the skill and ingenuity of the ana- livia; V._ TheEcorionit lyst, and the extent to which he is of Argentina; VI. The Economic De- able toutilize whateverdata are vqqamoctoLarg; VII. The Economic available. ga Development of Panama.

31 thenortheastern sector) on the otherhand, is gion and in composed of plantation or other region in1958were, respec- large-seale commercial agri- tively, 43 percent) and 27 per- culture, milling, petroleum and cent of that of the more dynam- refining, large-scale manufac- ic southern region. turing, and the financial, transport, distribution, per- Thedetailedanalysis recom- sonal and other services assoc- mended herewill be confined to in- The iatedwiththeseactivities. dustries of the modern sector. As a contrast to the tradition- primary criterion in choosingindus- al sector, the modern sector is tries for detailed analysis is thg.1 characterized byhigh captial- industry's likelihoodof requiring, labourratios; by capital ac- inthe future, substantial numbers cumulation; by technological of persons with high level skills progress; by relatively high and education.The second criterion productivity perman-hour; and is accessibility of data required byprovision ofwage-earning for the analysis. employment. Industries to be analyzed will Alltoo often, these two be chosenfrom the following groups sectors conform to leading and of activities: lagging regions. In Italy, for example, the modern sector is Activitiesjor which new con- roughlycoterminouswiththe struction is underway orsneeifi- north and thetraditional sec- cally_scheduled. It is likely that tor with the south. The same theconstruction of some new fac- is true of Mexico. In Brazil, tories, dams, airports, or other the modern sector has developed facilities has been started and that mostly in the south, especial4 other construction isin the plan- in the Rio and Sio Paulo areas, ning stage. Information about such whilethe traditionalsector plans may beobtained through any predominatesinthe north and existingplanning agencyof the northeast. In Indonesia, most government, from theoffices which of the people in the tradition- issuebuilding permits, from em- al sector live in Javanese vil- ployerassociations, financeagen- lageswhiletheplantations, cies, or from other sources. Offi- oilfields and refineries, and cials in theexpandingindustries mines of the modern sector are may have valuable informationre- found mainly in theOuter Is- garding theanticipated future pro- lands. Between the leading and ductionand manpower requirements. lagging regionswithin a coun- Such informationshould besought try the differences in income throughinterviews withthe appro- levels are often striking. For priate peopleinthese industries. instance, in Italy, income per head in the southin 1959 was a/ Rmo-corsunkmaifiggym 46.6 percent of that inthe Economic Develowent. Report of a northand, in Brazil, income peeting ofacnertsTdeneva, Interna- perhead in the Northern re- tional Labour Office, 1961)1p. 27.

32 which_ApAggip For example, in theRepublic of Activiti9s *:or been established irLap Ghana an immensehydroelectric proj- targgts_have economic development...am. Compre- ect is beingconstructedon the economic developmentplans Volta River.gh/ The projectwill hensive have set specific back up the riverwaters to form one in some countries time for of the largest manmadelakes in the production goals at a given One of the Power willbe provided for segments of the economy. world. to examine working the vastbauxite mines in tasks of this analysis is these targets in the country, and fora large alum- the feasibility of of the manpower requiredfor inum smelter. There will be suffi- terms Hence, it is cient power to attractother indus- their accomplishment. reasonable to start with the assump- tries and to electrifythe southern stated goals will in third of the country's area. In ad- tionthat the reached. The problem then dition, the newlake will provide fact be require- transportation tothe country's is to estimate the manpower the goals. northern area and isexpected to en- ments consistent with courage a freshwater fishing industry. The goals are usually stated in A manpower survey conductedin physical terms, such as the number or yards ofcot- Ghana in 1960includedprojections of tons of cement, of manpower requirements upto July ton textiles; or in terms of a serv- be performed, suchas the 1965, and in doing so, gavespecial ice to given number of stu- considerationtothe Volta River education of a Project. dents at various levels.

Because the Volta project commodities and services will havesuch agreat impact The economicdevelopment onthe economy) explicitas- listed in the variously related to sumptions have been made with plan will be classificotionsystem regardto it; namely that it the industry the purposeof will be undertakenin the being used and, for fitted period1960-66, generally in the analysis, will need to be accordance with plans submitted into the classification scheme. by Kaiser Engineers. Thus the labour requirements forthe Some commodities in the econom- dam, the generating plant, the plan will represent transmission linesand the ic development of one of the in- town, havebeenincludedin thetotal output this Survey, while thosefor dustries of the system. the 'aluminium smelter have not. 22/ Examples: 110) 261 Ibid., p. 162. Coal mining (ISIC Code (ISIC Code 22/ Survev of Hi h-Level Man- Sugar refineries nower.in Ghana 1960 Accra, Ghana, 207) Manufacture of Cement(ISIC Ministry of Information, 1961), p. 10. Code 334)

33 Some commodities will represent reasonableto make an assumption only partialoutput ofone of the that somewhat better nutrition, industries of the system. shelter, and clothing for thepopulation will be forthcoming and that Examples: there will be an improvement in Sewing machines (partof the education and medical care. A fore- output of ISIC Code360: Manu- castcan be postulated then, esti- factureof machinery; except matingfuture output ofthe basic electricial machinery) necessities of life consistent with Cotton textiles, number of such an assumption. yards (part of theoutput of ISIC Code 231: Spinning, weav- A number of industriescan be ing, and finishingtextiles). studied inrelation topopulation This Code includes all types of growths as shown below by ISIC major textile fibers, cotton, wool, group: and synthetic fibers. Food and beverages: Some targets of the plan will 20 - Food manufacturing in- cut across industry lines, requiring dustries, exceptbev- adetermination ofthe effecton erage industries different industries. 21 - Beverage industries 22 - Tobacco Example: Education If the target is expressed in Clothing and footwear: terms ofthe number of schools 23 - Manufacture of textiles to bebuilt andthe number of 24 - Manufacture of footwear, studentsto beeducated,the other wearing apparel, analysismust takeaccount of and made-up textile theeffect on the construction goods industry (ISIC Major Group 40), andeducation services, (Group Shelter: 821). 40 - Construction 26- Manufacture of furniture Activities whoduction_and and fixtures panpoweruguirements can be related to population =owth. One of the Education and medical care: goals of the industrializationpro- 82- Community services cess in all countries is to increase 821- Education services thestandards of livingof the 822- Medicaland other people. It is difficult to assess health services the fUture effective demand forcon- sumer goodsbecausethis in turn Electricity, gas, water, and dependsupon theeffectivenessof sanitary services the development program and theex- 51 - Electricity, gas, and tent towhich the benefitsfrom steam economic gains will bedistributed 52 - Water and sanitaryserv- among the population. But it may be ices

34 Activities forwhpsejoroducts often beable to guidethe analyst tovaluable sources of information; S.P.SLOS be gpnerated by the above. In order they may have unpublished statistics that estimates of the future employ- of great value; they will certainly ment structurewill beinternal4 have ageneral knowledge of the in- consistent, it is necessary to con- dustry andcanprovide answers to sider industries which will be many questions. affected bythe demand generated by To the extentthat statistics the activities previously mentioned. and other information are available, For example, ifit has been assumed the followinginformation foreach that aparticular manufacturing in- activityto be analyzedshould be dustry will expandin the future, allowance must be made for a corres4 assembled: ponding increase in: the construc- A descristion of the ecpn9a2 tion of plants, the manufacture of activity. as currentiv constituted. raw materials and packaging; light, use current or base year statistics. power, water, and sanitary services; The industryshould beidentified, transportationofraw materials, in terms of the industrial4assifi- finishedproducts, andworkers to cationsystem beingused, with an and from plants; housing for workers; exact definition; geographicloca- and communication services. tion; general description lofthe physicalproperties, such as factories, nines, or shops; commodities Information Desired for Analysis producedor services rendered; de- 9f Each Economic Activity scription of major products or services; current volumeof output in The analysts in each country physical units and/or in money value; face to some degreea scarcityof nature of the operations performed: basic datafor ananalysis of this Manufacturing process, sales, con- kind. The natureof theanalysis struction, etc.; total numberem- will be limitedby the quantity and ployed in the industry, by sex*, oc- quality ofinformation that can be cupationalbreakdown of employment; assembled. Their aim must be to do levels of earnings, by occupation, thebest job permittedby the cir- hoursworked, andsupplementary cumstances. benefits; number of establishments; numberemployedby establishment, A wealth of information and in- maximum, minimum, andaverageem- sight intoproblems can be obtained ployment; capital requirementsper through personalinterviewswith employee, andperunitof output; wellinformed peopleinindustry, typesandcondition ofequipment, government, trade associations, and such as machine tools, industrial labor unions. Since the analysis is equipment, truckspand railroad cars; based to a large extent on judgment, extent of technological progress, the opinions ofthose people most whether modern efficient production, closely associated with each indus- or obsolete traditional methods; raw try should besought and weighed in materials used and sources of supply; reaching conclusions for purposes of andpractices with regard to labor- the forecast. Such people will management relations.

35 Labor statistics bulletins; tive and statistic4; trends in em- Labor force, employment, unemployment, hours, and earnings; ployment, hours of work, trends in production; trends in out- earnings, etc. put per worker; technological prog- General statistical publications: ress in the past; occupational National income, foreign trade, trends; and trends in exports. and financial statistics. Statistrical_publications ofinter- Nature ofthe demand for the naIlogl agencies: product or service. Industrial con- Inter American Statistical Insti- sumers. istheproduct usedin tute. further manufacture, thereforede- United Nations andits special- pendent upon the level of other in- ized agencies: dustries? Individual consumers. Economic Commission for Europe What are their characteristicsas to EconomicCommission forLatin age, income level, occupation, and America. education?Circumstances influen- EconomicCommissionfor Asia cing demand for the productor serv- and the Far East. ice. Seasonal? Cyclical?Related Economic Commission for Africa. to urban or rural living? To social InternationalLabour Organisa- orcultural factors? Competitive tion. position with regardto--imports; InternationalBank forRecon- and other domestic industries; Value struction and Development. of exports. World Health Organisation. Food and AWculture Organisa- Factors which may affect future tion. Browth or declineof industry. Fu- Trade journals, directories, publi- ture production goals; economic cations. development or other government Financial andother reportsof in- plans; availability of capital; an- dustries. ticipated changes in all demand Daily newspapers. factors under Nature ofthe demand News magazines. forthe productor service above; Publications of trade associations, limitations on raw materials; pros- labor unions, chambers of commerce pects for technological advancements and professional societies. and resulting increase in output per man-hour; anticipatedchanges in Many publications from these hoursof work; anticipatedpopu- and othersourcesare included in lation growth. the bibliographyat the end of this manual.

221.-lecta S feEl_ted Sources of Published Data amparing theAnalltical Document for Each Economic Activit to be Government publications: Analyzed Censuses, suchas population, trade, agriculture, and manu- The analysisof each industry facturers. or activitycan becarried outby

36 all countries, highway con- preparing a paper, an instrumentto nearly struction is scheduledseveral years theanalyst towardasound guide Such advance plans may judgment withregard to the future in advance. utilized asestimates of future employment level inthe industry. be for these segments. The analyticaldocumenthastwo production Unplanned segmentsof the econ- parts as described below: (2) omy. Future production inindus- tries with noplanning must be esti- Part I. Arrivingat judgments on into consideration three elements: (a) The level of mated by taking the factors expectedto influ- productionof the industry atthe all principally, the forecast date;(b) The level of pro- enceproduction; demand for theproduct ductivity(output per man-hour) at nature of the (c) The hours of and the expected volumeof that de- the forecast date; as they date. mand at the forecast date, work at the forecast of maybe influencedby the level expenditures; the Part II. Utilizing these judgments GNP and consumer and exports; the toderive theestimated employment level of imports capital, raw ma- level at the forecastdate. availabilityof terials and labor. Part I. Theludementa. Utilizing One of the problems inthis theinformationassembled for all obtaining measures of the industry, the analyst studies, procedure is of thevarious sifts, and weighs the various fac- the physical output For a limited number of tors which he expects willinfluence industries. the outputis a single the industry. In theanalytical industries, production volume may be document, he enumerates the factors commodity; units ofthe which he considers significant and statedinphysical suchas tons of coal or explains thebasisupon whichhe product, reaches each conclusion. tons of cement. dif- (a) The level ofErodoption of If an industry makes many the industry at the forecast date. ferent productsit is impossible to Planned segments of the econo- sum the unitsof different products, (1) refrigerators of my. If thereis anofficial eco- such as radios and complexities. In nomic developmentplan, the analyst various styles and it is acceptsthe targets of theplan as such multiproduct industries, expressproduction his estimate offuture production, customary to in either of two ways (a) relatingthe commodities mentioned volume (b) as an index intheplan totheindustries as monetary value, or classified for the forecast. of physical production.

Even when there is no develop- (b) Produdjaily_changes. Productivity must be considered as a ment plan, certain segmentsof the economy may be planned for several keydeterminant of the future level Productivity is de- yearsahead bythe governmentor of employment. output per man-hour, or some central body. For instance, in fined as

37 Production (total number of things produced)

Man-hours (total number of man-hours worked in thatproduction)

In considering a particular in- Thereis reason toexpect similar dustry, the analyst must estimate disparitiesin the productivity ex- the change inproductivity during perience of other countries. the forecast period. For instance, assumethat the output of an indus- Nevertheless, in overall terms, try isexpected todouble in10 it is logical to expect productivity years. The question is "How much to increase inthe economy as a will employment increase in order to whole andin all industriesin the produce twice as much?" At one ex- modern sector of a country where ec- tremethere isthe possibilityof onomicdevelopment is proceeding. doublingemployment--assumingcon- Thefactors which affect productiv- stant productivity andconstant av- ity inany industry inany country erage hours of work per worker. At are numerous, complex, and often un- theother extreme, there is the measurable. But, in summary, the possibility of noincrease in em- factors wtich may be expected to in- ployment or hours worked, but crease productivity in a manufactur- doubling production by doubling out- ing industry in the modern sector of put per man-hour. a developing country include:

Usually the situation will lie 1. Scientificand technical between thesetwo extremes. The factors: (a) more and better tools, judgmentasto the anticipated equipment, and machines; (b) more effect of productivity changes must electricor mechanical energyap- be made on a basis of some knowledge plied to production; (c) new produc- of theindustry being studied, and tion methods; and (d) better materi- some assumptions regarding the fac- als. tors likely to affect productivity. 2. Management factors: (a) It is risky to generalize about more skilledorganization and man- productivity. Studies of productiv- agement of plant; (b) better schedu- ityinthe United Stateshave es- ling of work; more efficient plant tablished thefact thatchanges in layoutanddivision of labor; (c) productivityare not consistent or more efficient useof materials and automatic, but that there is a wide components; (d) better personnel range (from substantial declines in policy to reduce labor turnover; and outputper man-hour to substantial (e) betterlabor-management rela- increases) in the productivity tions. change from tim to time in the same plant; from plant toplant in the 3. Labor factors: (a) better same industry; from industry to in- general health of workers; (b) industry in the same division, such as creasing skilllevels; (c) better manufacturing; and from sector to general education; (d) better dis- seCtor in the United States economy. tribution ofstaff inorderto

38 utilize their skills more effective- workedper workerwill remainthe ly; and (e) better labor-management same in theforecast year as in the relations. current year, or will change. In the United States, there has imen a 4. Economic factors: (a) in- steady declinein thenumb4rof creased flow ofcapital investment; hours workedin the past 50 lears. (b) increased rates of operations, Formerly, a72-hour workweeli was based on greater demand for product; standard in manyindustries; today, and (c) shifts inpreponderance of the 40-hour workweek is usual. Fur- productionto plantswithhigher thermore, paid vacationsand holi- productivity. days are much moreprevalent today than in former years. The analystwill be guided in making a judgment regardingantici- In developing countries, an op- patedproductivity change by what- posite trend may be taking place as ever statistics are available on underemployment is eliminated and as past trends or current leve3s of a higher proportion of workers work output per man-hour. Ifproductiv- fulltime. ity levels are known for one or more advanced plants inthe industry, Part II. Utilizing these judgments they nay be used-as a general guide toderive theestimated employment to the potentials of the industry. level at the forecast date.

(c) Hours of work: The length (a) The basic concept of pro- of the workweekand of the workyear ductivity. In this section,the fol- will have a significant influence on lowing basic expressions of the pro- manpower requirements of the future. ductivity relationship will be used. Therefore; some judgment. mustbe made as towhether the total hours Productivity, is defined as:

Production (total number of things produced) Output pe

Man-hours (total number ofman-hours worked in that production) man-hour

It follows then that: (b) Computing the estimate of future employment.The analyst can Production nowestinate the effectof the an- = Man-hours ticipated changesonthe level of Output per man-hour employment. In practice, this procedure is complicated, difficult, and and hazardous because of the uncertainties involved. In concept, it Number of Total man-hours is clearcut, and can be expl ined Man-hours per worker workers by the use of several simplified illustrations:

39 Example 1. Industry A 1960 basic data:

Total annual production 4,000,000 units of product Average employment during the year 1,000 Weeks worked per year 50 Average hours per week per worker 40 Total hours per worker per year 40 x 50 = 2,000 Total man-hours per year 2,000 x 1,000 = 2,000,000 Output per man-hour (productivity):

Production 4,000,000 = 2 units of product per man-hour Man-hours 2,000,000

The judgments for Industry A. (a) Annual production in 1970 will be 20 percent above 1960, or 4)800,000 units of product: (b) Output per man-hour in 1970 willbe10 percentabove 1960, or 2.2 units of product per man-hour. (c) Hours of work will decline 10 percent by1970, to 36 hours per week, 50 weeks of the year, or 1,800 hours per worker per year.

Thus the computation of the estimate of employment is as follows:

Industry A - 1970

Man-hours_ Production Man-hours = Workers Output per man-hour Manhours per worker

4,8001000 2,181,818 = 21181,818 ------= 12212 2:2 1,800

Conclusion: The estimated employment level of Industry Ain 1970 is 1,212.

Example 2. Industry B A multiproduct industry.Monetary value is used as ameasure of production. 1960 basic data: Total annual production Value of Product Units Unit value production

A 400,000 $4 $1,600,000 B 100,000 2 200,000 C 50,000 8 .-...40.40_ $2,200,000

40 Average employment during the year 1,000 Weeks worked per year 50 Average weekly hours per worker 44 Total annual hours per worker 44 x 50 = 2,200 Total annual man-hours 2,200 x 1,000 = 2,200,000 Output per man-hour(productivity):

ProduQV.an 2:200,000= per man-hour Man-hours 20200,000

The judgments for Industry B. (a) Annual production in 1970 will be abovethat of 1960 as indicated:

Percent Unit value change (constant dollars Value of Product 1960-70 Units assumed) production A +25 500,000 $4 $2,000,000 +50 150,000 2 300,000 0 +10 55,000 8 440,000 $2,740,000

(b) Output per man-hourin 1970will be 15 percentabove 1960, or $1.15 per man-hour. per (c) Hours of work will be the same in1970 as in 1960: 44 hours week, 50 weeks of the year, or2,200 hours per worker per year.

The computation of the estimate ofemployment:

Industry B - 1970

= Man-hours Output per man-hour

2,740,000 = 2,382,609 1.15

Lan-hours Number of workers Nan-hours per worker

1,083 2,200 is Conclusion: The estimated employment levelof Industry B in1970 1,083.

41 Example 3. Industry C A multiproduct industry. Index numbersare used to represent produc- tions man-hours, and productivity. 1960 basic data:

Total annual production =100 (Production index) Average employment during the year 1 000 Weeks worked per year 50 Average weekly hours per worker 40 Total annual hours per worker 40 x 50 = 2,000 Total annual man-hours 2,000 x 1,000 = 2,0002000 By definition total man-hours in 1960 =100 (Man-hours index) Output per man-hour (productivity):

EXARRIUM 192x 100 = 100 (Productivity index) Man-hours 100

The judgments for Industry C. (a) Annual production in 1970 will be 20 percent above 1960: Index =120. (b) Output per man-hourin 1970will be 10 percentabove 1960: Index = 110. (c) Hours ofwork willdecline 10percent by 1970, to36 hours per week, 50 weeks of the year, or 1,800 hours per worker per year.

The computation of the estimate of employment. It is necessary to make slight adjustments of the basic formulas when using index numbers. Industry C - 1970 ProduEtion index x 100 = man-hours index Output per man-hour index

x 100 = 109.1 110 Man-hours index x 100 = workers index Man-hours per worker index

1224x 100 =121.2 90 Workers index (workers 1960) = workers 1970 100

121.2x 1 000 =12212 100

Conclusion: The estimated employment level of Industry Cin 1970 is 1,212. Note the use offigures identical with those in Example 1; actually the two methods are the same.

42 The analytical document for non- Employment in banks may be related commodity producingindustries such to bank deposits. as commerce, financial institutions, Employment inretail trade may be and serviceindustries is somewhat related to gross sales. different from that described above. Employmentinbarbershops and The purpose is the same, to consider beauty salonsmay berelatedto all factors affecting future employ-. population. ment andto arrive at judgments as to thefUture level ofemployment. In each case, it is necessary to Theanalyst seeks a meaningful re- consider the effect ofpossible fu- lationshipbetween employmentand turetechnological changes, such as any available measure of the indus- the introductionof machineryor try's activity Whi-Wcan-be indepen- automatic equipment, and-t6 antici- dently projected. pate changes inhours worked. From a painstaking evaluation of all factors, the analystderives an esti- For example: mate of future employment.

43 Ohapter V. MODIFICATION OF THE FIRST APPROXIMATION (STEP 3)

Modifythe first approximation This finalevaluation and ad- of employment at the futuredate in justmentwillproduce therevised accordancewith theresults of the estimatesof future employmentby detailed analysis of eachimportant industry, which the analyst presents activity. as his best answer tothe question "How many people will be required in FitIing_thIConclusions of the eachindustry atthe given future AnalysjsLAITImujanLIndustries date?" jalg_j1g_Whole -Wri-fication by_Ana).ypis.: of Gross Step 1 provlded an estimate of DomestiKproduct future employment for each industry or economic activity, derivedby In order toprovide a further successive allocationintoindus- check against the reasonableness of tries of the estimated total employ- the industry employment projections, ment of the economy. These esti- it is suggested thatan attempt be mateshave been designated as first made to determine whether these pro- approximations.They have been forced jections (andthe assumptions on so that the sum of the parts equals which they are based) are consistent a predetermined total of employment with overallprojections of gross in the entire economy. nationalor domestic product. If, for example, the economic develop- Step 2 provided an independent ment planfor the country envisages estimateof future employment in a an annual increase in gross product limitednumber ofimportant indus- of 3 or4percent, the projections tries, derived by detailed analysis. of employmentbyeconomic activity should beconsistent with that rate The next step (Step 3) is to of increase. modify the first approximations of Step 1 on the basis of themore de- This analysis cannot be ex- tailedanalysis of Step 2. It is pected to beprecise; rather, it is inevitable that the detailed analy- a blunt tool which permits examina- sis will in some cases indicate a tionofthe effecton thetotal need forrevision ofthe first ap- economy of thevarious assumptions proximation. These modifications incorporated into the forecasts. It should bemade; an upward revision may reveal, for instance, that a pro.- in one industry may be balanced by a ductivity assumptionwhich appeared downwardadjustment inanother so reasonable, is, in fact, inconsis- that the sum of the parts will still tentwith the anticipated growth of equal the total. Balance among in- the economy. dustries should be considered as well; the level of employment inre- The verificationbeginswith lated industries shouldbe consis- the level ofgross domestic product tent. If sufficient data are avail- in the base year. If the system of able for earlier years, the rela- national accounts used in the coun- tionshipamongindustries can be try conforms with the standards rec- tested by correlation analysis. ommended by theStatistical Office 44 projections. That is, theassump- of theUnited Nations2g/, there is regarding the anticipated a standard tablenumber II entitled, tions hours "Industrial origin of Gross Domestic changes inproductivity and applied to the gross Product at factor cost,"which may worked may be domestic product per person employed beavailable for use. This table for each economic activity toderive providesan estimateof the contri- estimate for the bution of eacheconomic activity to a corresponding future period. Then, for each eco- gross domesticproduct for abase nomic activity: (4) Estimated con- year. tribution to gross domestic product The procedure recommended here perpersonemployed inthe future utilizes thattable to check the year, (5) Multiplied br: Estimated fore-CdgUi-as-follawsrPor each eeo-. exploymentinthe future year, (6) nomic activity:(1) The contribution Eouals:The contribution toGross to grossdomestic product at factor domestic procluct at factor costfor cost (base year), (2) amilipsi_ja: the future year. Employmentin the economic activity (base year),(3) Baugh: gross domes- The sum of the contribution to tic product per personemployed gross domestic productfrom ail eco- (base year). nomic activities for the future year estimate of thetotal When gross domestic product per provides an gross domestic product. personemployed isknown foreach future is pos- economic activity for the base year, Utilizingthat figure, it to compute the percentage an estimate of that product for the sible change from the base year to the fu- future year may be derived, consistent with the assumptions which have ture year in gross domestic product. been incorporated into the preceding Derive the ratio:

gross clomesticproduct fagt92199st spy the future year Gross domestic product atfactor cost for the base year

If theabove procedure indi- expectations, it may pointto the cates that the future gross domestic needfor some modificationof the productimplied bythe forecast assumptions used. is not consistentwith overall An example of the projection of 24/ United Nations, Statistical gross nationalproduct by this type Office, A Systemof National Ac- of analysis is provided loy Australia counts and Supporting Tables (New in its reply to the United Nations York, 1960), Studies in Methods, questionnaireon long-term economic Series F, No. 2, rev. 1. projections. 29/ 22/ United Nations,Economic and Social Council, World Economic Gros lig1911A1--a2a112I. gituationEyaluation of Lon -Term Australian industry wasclassi- then Economic proimtkIna New York, fied into 119 sectors and made of 1960), Adden. 1, Replyof anextrapolation was input Australia, p. 15. the expected labour

a coefficient in 1964-65 for each forpower generation and even of the 119industries. Using higher increases insome engi- these extrapolations of labour neering activities-the weighted productivity and 1953-54 employ- average increasefor factories ment weights (except for rural being approximately 19 percent. industries), aprojectionof GrossNational Product for Estimates of productivity 1964-65 was obtained. increases in the service sector varied from 6 percent for rail- Labour productivity in the ways to 20 percent for commerce, rural sectorwas estimated to and 40 percent for shipping. increaseby 28 percentfrom 1953-54 to 1964-65. Aggregate The weightedaverage of rural employment was estimated, these estimated productivity however, not by using 1953-54 increases forall industries employment weights, butby over the period 1953-54 to 1964- assuming thatthe figure will 65 was 20 percent or1.67 per- remain constant at slightly cent per annum. Together with less than 0.5 million persons. anestimate of population in- This is inline witha trend creasethis allowsan initial which has marked the Australian estimate of Gross National Pro- economy for several decades. duct for 1964-65. After allowing for a decrease inthe In manufacturing, estimates terms of tradebetween 1953-54 of productivity increase varied and 1964-65, the final estimate from around5 percent for sev- of GrossNationalProduct is eralfoodstuffs to57 percent obtained.

46 4) Chapter VI.ESTIMATED FUTURE EYYLOITYNTBY OCCUPATION (STEP governmentserv- Derive an occupationalbreak- and expanding to introduce new systems down of employmentin each economic ice, methods in activity in the futureperiod by ap- of land use and new new plying the bestavailableoccupa- agriculture, todevelop communication, to carry tionalcomposition patternswith means of industrialization, and particularattention to all occupa- forward education. tions requiring specialized orlong- to build a system of these fields re- term training or education. Sum the Changes in all quire persons with professional estimatesof eachoccupationfrom technical skills andorga- the various economicactivities. and nizing ability.31)/ The occupationalstructure of current employment can be expectedto change For purposes of the analysis a judgment must bemade as significantlyas economic develop- extent to whichthis up- ment proceeds. Along withthe de- to the will of new industriesand the grading of occupational skills velopment the ex- modernization of traditionalindus- take place, and furthermore, which the development plans tries, there must almostcertainly tent to additionalhigh-level man- bean increasein thenumber and require Even if there appears to be proportionsof peopleengagedin power. expectationof ful- professionalandtechnical occupa- no reasonable tions, and in higherlevel adminis- fillingthe apparentrequirements, estimating the trative occupations. there is a need for shortagewhich is likely to occur. at- Professor Harbison of Princeton Therefore the following analysis extent of the University advances thehypothesis: temps to gmuge the anticipateddemand for each occupational category. . thatthe accumulation of high-level manpoweris related to change and innovation in economic, social, and political ac- ApplAcation, of Occupational tivity, i.e., to the progressivy gompsition Patterns to Tildusta introductionover timeof new prqjections ways of producinggoods and sem:- ices and new patternsof social The number of persons to be em- occupation inthe andpolitical life. According ployed in each be estimated by to thishypothesis, human capi- futureperiod may tal formation is associatedwith applying the best available occupa- composition patternsto the bothec.onomic, social, and po- tional estimates of litical development. In a stat- previously derived ic, traditionalsociety one XV Frederick H. Harbison, High- would expect that theproportion Productivityt and of personsinthehigh-level Level _Empower Paperfor Con- category would berelatively Economic Progress. Labor Productivityunder constant. But, as the tradi- ference on International tional society begins to modern- theauspices of the September ize, it mustaccumulatehigh- EconomicAssociation, levelmanpower to staff anew 1961, pp. 15-16. 47 employmentin each industry or each Staffing patterns for individual es- economic activity. Particular in- tablishments, groups ofestablish- terest centersin those occupations ments, or entire industries may be whichrequire specializedtraining available. It may be possible to or education. The procedure con- obtainand use relevant information sists of four steps: fromother more economically advanced countries, particularly for 1. Obtain for each economic industries which do not yet exist in activity an occupational composition the country but are expectedto be pattern, i.e., a count of the number established in the future. Patterns employed ineach occupation or oc- from other countries, however, cupationalgroup inthe current or should be used cautiously, with base year. Compute thepercentage careful attention to the differences distribution by occupation. as well as the similarities between industries in different economic en- 2. Modifythe occupational vironments. composition pattern, by judgment, to takeinto account changes antici- In the event that current oc- patedin occupational structure in cupationalcomposition patterns for the forecast period. some or all industries are available,

11,./..111110111/.1 3. Multiply the projected in- Ili If suchinformation is not dustry totalbythe percentage in published, perhaps the Census agency each occupation to derivethe esti- will make aspecial tabulation of matednumber in eachoccupation in the industry-occupationdata upon the future year. request. There arelimitations to the accuracy and reliability of oc- 4. Sum the occupational esti- cupational data obtained by house- mates from all economic activities. hold enumeration. Often the house- wife supplies the information about The chief problem is to obtain the worker; she may have only a gen- the desired occupational informution. eralidea of the job duties of the It is necessaryto investigate pos- worker and may provide inaccurate sible sources of the data. information. Many workers and wives tend to upgrade themselves when re- In some countries, the Census porting tothe Census; i.e., they of Population includes a count of reportthemselves inan occupation the workingpopulation according to which carries more presitge than the the industry andoccupation of each one in whichthey areactually en- worker. Thus, the census yields in- gaged. Or the worker may report a formationon the occupational com- specifictitle to his occupation position of eachindustry. X/ which is unique in his plantand Perhaps there are other occupational thus not susceptible to proper iden- studies or skillsurveysmade by tification and classification by the government agencies. Census. As a result of such limitations, the Census occupational cate- The various industries may be gories must be ratherbroadly de- able to provide occupational data. fined and used with caution.

48 thesepatterns must be modified for One analytictechniqueis to forecasting, to take intoaccount study the occupational composition anticipated changes in occupations. of plants which have the most up-to- The tasks performed today by skilled date technology, on the assumption craftsmen maybe performed tomorrow that over aperiod of years other by machines operated by semiskilled plants in the industry will intro- workers.Routine tasks performed by duce the new equipment or production unskilledworkers maybe doneen- methods and thusthe industry as a tirely by machines. The moving of whole will approachthe pattern of materials and parts byconveyor the advanced plants. belts in the factory eliminates some occupations and changes others.Re- searchand developmentprograms in A pioneer work in the occupa- industry areconstantly searching tional fieldhas been issued by the for ways of producing goods more ef- PlanningCommission of theGovern- ficiently. Every year new ways are mentof India. 2,./ Reproduced here foundof doing things, each change is a summary of the percentdistri- havingsome effectupon the func- butionof manufacturingemployment tions of workers. inIndia by occupational group and by industry group (table 7). Simi- Some indication ofthenet lartables from the UnitedStates changes in occupationalstructure have been included for both manufac- may be obtained byexamining occupa- turingand nonmanufacturingindus- tionaltrendsin differentindus- tries, by occupationalgroupfrom tries and indifferentcountries. data obtained inthe 1950 Census of Surveys may be available to indicate Population (tables 8 and 9). The the extent of increasesin the em- percentdistribution of the econom- ployment of scientists and engineers ically activepopulation by branch in some industries. Current infor- ofeconomic activityand by major mation as to current and anticipated occupational group for Brazil, Chile, technological changes can be used to and Guatemala is shown in tables 10, makemodifications of each indus- 11, and 12. try'soccupational composition pattern for use in forecasts. If thereare nooccupational statistics in a given country sta- India Planning Commission, tistics from other countries such as Occupational Patternin Manufaetur- foundin tables 7 through12 may ingIndustriesz_India 1956 (Delhi, provide a rough guide to occupation- 1959). al structure. The source publica- .23/ This major group is called tions cited inthose tables would, "Manufacture ofStone, Clay, and ofcourse, provide greaterdetail Glass Products" in the Standard and should be obtained in preference Classificationsystems of both the to the summaries provided here. UnitedStates and India. The cor- respondinggroupinthe ISIC is Forexample, suppose it has called "Manufacture of Non-Metallic been estimatedthatemployment in Mineral Products, except Products of the manufacture ofstone, clay, and Petroleum and Coal." glass products inthefuture

49 Table 7. Percent Distribution of Estimated Total Employment in India -in Eanufacturing Industries, by Industry and Major OcpupationalGroups, 1956

Profes- Adminis- sional, trative, Clerical techni- executive, and Sales Industry group Total cal, and and related workers kindred nanagerialworkers workers workers

All industries 100 0 2 2 1. 0 0 Food and kindred products 100.0 1.86 1.42 5.4 0 Textile mill products and apparel 100.0 1.05 .65 3.06 .01 Chemical and related products 100.0 4.72 2.40 5.71 .10 Rubber, petroleum, and -- coal products 100.0 4.15 2.02 3.67 Stone, clay, and glass products 100.0 2.22 1.66 3.80 .02 ---- Basic metal products 100.0 6.67 2.45 7.91 Fabricated metal products and machinery,. .. 100.0 3.67 2.40 5.60 .06 Transport equipment 100.0 4.06 1.70 6.65 .03 Other 100.0 2.89 2.02 5.97 .11

50 Table 7. Percent Distribution ofEstimated Total Employment in India in Manufacturing Industries, by Industry and MajorOccupational Groups, 1956 --Continued ----.....--...... - Farmers, Craftsmen, Service, fishermen, Workers in production sport hunters, transport process and Industry group loggers, and com- workers and recrea - and relatedmunications laborers, tion workers occupationsunclassifiedworkers 1.21 0 0 0.6 89.91 am-imm All industries. Food and kindred produe 0.02 0.94 88.02 2.47 Textile mill products and apparel. .13 94.25 .84 .01 Chemical and related products. .02 .75 85.16 1.14 Rubber, petroleum, and coal products. .. .60 88.36 1.20 Stonn, clay, and glass products. .05 .52 90.44 1.29 Basic metal products. .09 1.39 78.72 2.77 Fabricated metal pro - ducts and machinery, .02 .85 86.61 .79 Transport equipment. .. 4.47 82.40 .69 .05 .54 87.08 1.34 Other. ___-_-- ..-- ....-...

Source: Occupational Pattern in ManufacturinIndustritILLAW1226 (Delhi, 1959).

51 Table 8. Percent Distribution of EmployedPersons in the United States, by Industry and Major OccupationalGroups, 1950

Profes- Managers, sional officials, Clerical technical and pro- and Sales Total Industry group and prietors, kindred workers kindred except workers workers farm

11 0 otal manufacturing :1-02:S.-----44, ..8 7.7 11.1 bod and kindred products 100.0 2.7 6.2 .9 extile mill products 100.0 1.5 2.4 Tparell and other fabri- 4.6 6.6 1.9 cated textile products 100.0 1.1 15.1 4.7 hemicals and allied products100.0 12.0 6.3 13.5 2.0 ubber products 100.0 5.4 3.5 6.1 16.7 2.4 'etroleum and coal products. 100.0 14.0 9.2 1.6 tone,clay and glass productsIC0.0 4.1 5.2 2.5 9.7 .7 rimary metal industries 100.0 4.2 12.1 2.3 abricated metal industries 100.0 4.8 5.4 13.6 2.5 rechinery, except electrical100.0 6.9 4.9 14.6 1.5 lectrical machinery 100.0 9.3 3.3 2.4 12.0 .8 ransportation equipment 100.0 6.6 mmber and wood products, 3.8 .7 except furniture 100.0 .9 5.8 8.0 2.2 Urniture and fixtures 100.0 1.6 5.3 rofessional and photographic 16.2 2.5 equipment and watches 100.0 10.4 5.5 6.5 2.1 obacco manufactures. 100.0 1.1 3.6 11.2 2.3 'aper and allied products 100.0 3.4 4.3 rinting, publishing, and 18.4 15.2 allied industries 100.0 9.6 8.3 7.6 1.7 mather and leather products 100.0 1.2 3.2 Table 8. Percent Distribution of EmployedPersons in the United States, by industry and MajorOccupational Groups, 1950 --Continued

1 .11.. S. Ww. no. sonmumwar... Service Craftsmen, workers, Laborers foremen, Operatives except except Industry group and and kindred private farm kindred workers house- and nine workers holds 111 IMMO' ...IP.0 NOM. 11111116 0 /419 Total manufacturing. ..12e 6 0 .. .=""' 15.2 44.9 2.5 10.5 Food and kindred products. 10.5 71.5 2.1 4.9 Textile nill products. Apparel, and other fabricated textile products. 5.9 77.9 .9 1.1 Chemicals_and allied products. 15.7 33.5 2.9 9.8 13.6 53.0 2.6 6.4 Rubber products. Petroleum.and coal products. 21.3 27.2 2.2 10.1 Stone, clay and glass products. 15.5 45.6 1.6 17.2 Primary metal industries. 29.1 33.5 2.3 18.0 Febricated metal industries. 24.2 42.7 1.7 6.8 Machinery, except electrical. 31.3 34.9 1.8 4.1 18.4 47.4 1.8 3.7 Electrical machinery. 28.8 41.9 2.3 5.2 Transportation equipment. Lumber,and wood products, 9.9 38.7 1.2 39.0 except furniture. 24.8 50.4 1.3 6.4 Furniture and fixtures. Professional and photographic 21.8 39.5 1.7 2.4 equipment and watches. 7.9 67.9 2.9 8.0 Tobacco manufactures. 14.4 52.7 1.7 10.0 Paper and allied products. Printing, publishing, and allied industries. 33.6 12.2 1.3 1.4 6.4 75.5 1.2 3.2 Leather and leather products. 111 yeseu,

Source: U.S. Census of Population:1950. Vol. IV. Special Reports (Washington, U.S. Bureau of the Census,19557, Pt. 1, Ch. D, Industrial Characteristics. Table 6:MaiorScompation Gr....wo..f.2Lpmloye._dPersons, by. Detailed Industry...and Sex for the United Stategl.:MQ.

53 Table 9. Percent Distribution of EmployedPersons in YonmanufacturingIndustries in the United States, by Industry and MajorOccupational Groups, 1950

Profes- Managers, sional, officials, Clerical technical, and pro- and Sales Industry group - Total and prietors, kindred workers kindred including workers workers farm

Agriculture, forestry, 0.1 and fisheries 100.0 0.7 614. 0.3 4.6 .3 Fining 100.0 3.7 4.1 3.2 .3 Construction 100.0 3.8 8.4 Transportation, communication, and other .5 public utilities 10C.0 3.5 7.0 23.5 27.8 Wholesale and retail trade100.0 2.0 23.1 11.5 Finance, insurance and 23.7 real estate 100.0 3.3 16.9 42.0 9.6 .9 Services 1/ 100.0 31.9 6.0 .2 Public administration2/. 100.0 12.0 9.2 44.2

jj Business and repair services; personalservices; entertainment and recreation services; andprofessional and related services. Includes only those activitieswhich are unique ti governmert,such .4/ the as legislativeand judicial activities andmost of the activities in educational and medical executive agencies. Government agencies engaged in services and in activitiescommonly carried on also byprivate enterprises, appropriate such as transportation andmanufacturing, are classified in the industrial category.

54 Table 9. Percent Distribution of EmployedPersons in Nonmanufacturing Industries inthe United States, by Industry and Major OccupationalGroups, 1950 --Continued

.__.-__,..___,___._...... -- __-_-...... ,-..... -

Craftsmen, Opera - foremen, tives ServiceLaborers, Industry group and and workers except kindred kindred mine workers workers -_-_-_,-- Agriculture, forestry, 0.3 0.8 0.2 36.2 and fisheries. 17.4 69.1 .7 .1 Mining. 57.0 7.6 .5 19.2 Construction. Transportation, communication, and other 21.3 27.9 3.4 12.9 public utilities. 6.1 12.6 13.7 3.2 Wholesale and retail trade. Finance, insurance and 2.3 .7 9.3 1.8 real estate. 9.2 8.1 32.0 2.3 Services jj. 8.5 4.8 16.3 4.8 Public administration2/. ._._...... V ...VVromnv. w 4.4.1 4 IMMILI. V V.VvVadva Source: U.S. Bureau of Cnsus of Pouglagoo_120. Vol. IV, Snecial Reports (Washington, 1955 ). Pt. 1, Ch. DI Industrial Characteristics. Table 6: liajcsOccupErnployedPersons, by Detailed Indust= and Sexfor the United Statepi 1950.

55 Table 10. Percent Distribution of Economically ActivePopulation in Brazil by Branch of Econoric Activity and MajorOccupational Group, 1950

Farmers, fisher- Profes- Managers, Oleri men, Branch of sional, adminis- cal Sales- hmters, economic Totaltechnical trators, office men lumber- activity and re- and and and men and lated offic- relatedrelatedrelated workers ials workers workersworkers

..._ Total 100 0 2 0 Agriculture, forestry, hunting fishing, mining, -. and quarrying 100.0 -- 0.3 0.1 96.9 Manufacturing, construction, electricity, and gas 100.0 1.2 4.4 7.8 1.9 1.5 Commerce 100.0 1.5 33.6 14.3 43.1 .3 Transport, storage, and communications100.0 .4 3.8 15.6 .2 1.5 Services, water, and 1.8 sanitary services.100.0 11.2 3.9 9.3 1.5

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individualitems do not necessarily equal totals. Table 10. Percent Distribution of Economically Active Population in Brazil by Branch of Economic Activity and Major Occupational Group, 1950 --Continued ______-______Crafts- men, Manual Other Workers factoryworkers workers Workers in op- opera- and Servicen.e.c.and in nineerating tives, labor- and workers Branch quarry trans- and ers relatedin occu- of and port workers not workers pations economic relatedoccupa- in re- else- unidenti- activity workers tions lated where fiable or occupa- clas- not re- tioi ported 2 0 2 LI-2.46 _199-- 37 Total. Agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishing, mining, 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 -- 0.3 and quarrying. Manufacturing, construction, elec- 11.3 1.5 51.8 9.0 0.3 9.2 tricity, and gas. -- 1.0 2.3 1.2 .1 2.7 Connerce. Transport, storage, 5 39.5 14.2 17.1 .6 6.5 and connunications Services, water, and .4 .9 22.3 1.3 36.9 10.6 sanitary services.

-_....Wm...1mswmrsorr* mow.. Immo .mme

Source: Union Panamericana, Instituto Interamericano de Estadistica, La Estraqtura Demkgraphica de las Naciones Americanas. Volume II, Tomo 2. Caracteristica comhinadas de lapoblacion economicamente activa. Cuadro 21-12, pp. 112-125.

57 Table 11. Percent Distribution of Economically Active Population in Chile by Branch of Economic Activity and Major Occupational Group, 1952

Farmers, fisher- Profes- Yanagers, Cleri- Len, Branch of sional, adminis- cal Sales- hunters, economic Totaltechnical trators, office men lumber- activity and re- and and and men and lated offic- related related related workers ials workersworkers workers

Total 100.0 4.3 6.4 7 5 2 5 28 2 Agriculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing.. O 100.0 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.1 93.9 Yining and -- quarrying 1C0.0 2.4 1.1 6.2 .3 -. Construction 11:10.0 2.1 5.7 2.5 .2 Eanufacturing -- industries****** 100.0 2.3 5.0 5.9 1.7 Electricity, gas, water, and sani- -. tary services 100.0 4.2 1.0 14.7 .5 -- Commerce 100.0 2.2 40.3 22.0 19.5 Transportation, storage, and __ 'communications 100.0 1.6 2.4 21.3 .3 Services 100.0 14.0 3.3 8.1

Note: Because of rounding, sums of individual items do not necessarily equal totals.

58 in Chile Table 11.Percent Distribution ofEconomically Active Population by Branch of EconomicActivity and Major OccupationalGroup, 1952 --Continued

Crafts- nen, Manual Other Workers factoryworkers workers Workers in op- opera- and Servicen.e.,. and Branch in mine erating tives, labor- and workers of quarry trans- and ers relatedin occu- economic and port workers not workers pations activity relatedoccupa- in re- else- unidenti- workers tions lated where liable or occupa- clas- not re- tions sified .rted "=---- 13 9 --6-3-Total. Agriculture, forestry, hunting, -. 0.3 2.2 0.1 0.7 1.4 and fishing. Mining and 1.4 quarrying. 59.2 2.4 22.7 1.4 2.9 -- 1.2 66.4 17.1 2.3 2.6 Construction. Manufacturing .. 1.4 78.1 .8 1.6 3.1 industries. Electricity, gas, water, and sani- 13.0 -. 3.0 51.7 1.0 10.8 tary services. _. 1.6 8.5 .8 2.8 2.2 Commerce. Transportation, storage, and 2.2 _. 34.9 24.2 10.4 2.5 communications. -- .5 3.0 1.1 56.8 12.8 Services.

de Estadistica. Source: Union Panamericana,Instituto Interamericano Volume II, Tomo 2. La Estractura_Dergographica.delas Naciones Americanas. Caracteristica combinadas de lapoblacion economicamenteactiva. Cuadro 21-17, pp. 142-155.

59 Table 12.Percent Distribution of EconomicallyActive ?opulation in Guatemala, by Branchof Economic Activity and Major Occupational Group,1950

Farmers, fisher- Profes- Managers, Cleri- men, sional, adminis- cal Sales- hunters, Branch of Totaltechnical trators, office men lumber- men and economic and re- and and and activity lated offic- related relatedrelated workers ials workers workersworkers

,. 1.8 3.3 67.3 Total 100.0 1.6 1. , Agriculture, forestry, hunting, -_ -. 1 98.5 and fishing 100.0 0.1 0.2 Mining and 3.8 2.6 I 0.1 quarrying 100.0 1.7 1.5 -- .2 Construction 100.0 .8 1.0 .7 Manufacturing .6 industries 100.0 .3 .5 .9 .5 Electricity, gas, water, and sani- .2 .1 tary services 100.0 1.4 1.0 13.7 .2 Commerce .100.0 .8 20.9 5.4 59.5 Transportation, storage, and 16.6 .2 .2 communications ...100.0 1.3 2.0 9.6 .2 1.1 Services 100.0 14.0 2.0

60 Table 12. Percent Distribution of Economically Active Population in Guatemala, by Branch of Economic Activity and Major; Occupational Group, 1950 -.Continued

Crafts- men, Manual Other Workers factoryworkers workers Workers in op- opera- and Servicen.e.c. and in mine erating tives, labor- and workers Branch quarry trans- and er$ related in occu- of and port workers not workers pations economic related occupa- in re- else- unidenti- activity workers tions lated where fiable or occupa- clas- not re- tions sified _ported ___._ o 3 1.2 111021921 1.7 --;.3 1.0 ,Total. _. 'Agriculture, forestry, hunting -- 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.3 -- and fishing. Mining and 77.7 1.8 5.8 2.7 1.6 0.8 quarrying. .1 2.0 69.2 24.5 1.0 .5 Construction. Manufacturing 1.2 .5 94.3 .9 .2 .2 industries. Electricity, gas, water, and sani- .5 .9 63.1 14.6 3.2 1.3 tary services. -- 1.0 5.5 5.0 164 .2 Commerce. Transportation, storage, and ..... 45.9 12.9 18.5 1.7 .7 communications. -- 1.8 1.6 3.1 60.1 6.5 Services.

..1

Source: Union Panamericana, Instituto Interamericano de Estadistica, La Estractura Demogranhica de las Eaciones Americanas.Volume II, Tomo 2. Caracteristica combinadas de la poblacion economicamente activa.Cuadro 21-21, pp. 168-179.

61 year will be 5,000 workers. Refer- United States. If, for example, a ence to the suggestedtables indi- judgmentis made that the industry cates that in that industry group in in thegivencountry is somewhat India in 1956, 2.2 percent of total more advanced thanthat ofIndia, employmentwas inthe occupational but lessthan that of theUnited group, "Professional, technical,and States, it wouldappear reasonable related workers."The corresponding toassume thattheproportionof figure for the United States in 1950 totalemployment inthatoccupa- was 4.1 percent. As might be ex- tionalgroup would be between 2.2 pected, in themore industrialized and 4.1 percent. economy a larger proportionof workers are engaged in the higherlevel Each occupational group in the occunations. If possible, consider- stone, clay, andglass major indus- ation should begiven tothe com- try group canbe roughly estimated parabilityof the industries in onthe basis of the following data questionto thoseof Indiaor the from tables 7 and 8.

The stone, clay, and glass manufacturing industry group:

United Statesx_1210 Percent India, 1956 Percent

Professional, technical, Professional, technical, and kindred wrkers 4.1 and related workers 2.2

Managers, officials, and Administrative, executive, proprietors 5.2 and managerial 1.7

Clerical and kindred Clerical and related workers 9.2 workers 3.8

Sales workers 1.6 Sales workers .02

Craftsmen, foremen, and Craftsmen, production process kindred workers 15.5 workers, and laborers 90.4

Operatives 45.6 Transportation and communi- Laborers 17.2 cation workers .5

Service workers 1.6 Service workers 1.3

Similarly, theoccupational economic development. In the tabu- groupings in the construction indus- lation which follows, the countries try inthree countries seem to show are arranged in order ofdevelopment, a pattern relatedtothelevel of with the most highly developed first.

62 Proportion of eachoccupational group to total construcgo.j_ ndist cupational ....9m4pment In the Chile Guatemala group United States (1950) (1952) (1950) groups...... 1004 100.0 100.0

ofessional, technical, 0.8 and kindred workers. 000000000 3.8 2.1 gore, officials, 1.0 and proprietors ...... 8.4 5.7 .7 erical and kindred workers... 3.2 2.5 .2 es workers...... 3 aftsmen, foremen, and kindred workers 57.0 66.4 69.2 ratives ...... 7.6 17.1 24.5 laborers .....g...... 19.2 2.3 1.0 ervice workers. 41 000000000041011140 .5 3.7 2.8 her workers. 0411.411.414100.40004114000 4. Occupations which are im- Fl°'Occupational Grouping portant"feeder" occupations to the highly skilled occupationsin short The amount of detail inthe oc- supply. cupational distribution willdepend pon theavailability of data.It In addition, residualcate- anotfeasibletoprojecteach gories shouldbe set up to make it ghlyspecific occupationalcate- possibleto estimate total employ- gory sincethe estimatesare not mentforeach najoroccupational sufficiently precise forthat pur- group withineach industry division. se. But within broad groupingsof occupationscertainones mustbe There will undoubtedly be gaps identified tothe extentpossible, in theinformation available;that according to the followingcriteria: is, for certainindustries no available data will beapplicable. It is industries that Occupations of strategic suggestedfor such 1. hypothetical distri- inportance tothedevelopment pro- some reasonable bution ofoccupations bederived gram. from the overalloccupational =cm- position of an industry orindUstry 2. Occupations for which short- group withsimilar characteristics ages exist in the current economy. and applied to the projectedemploy- ment total. In this way, it is pos- to estimate for. given indus- 3. Occupationswhich require sible of training and into triesa completeoccupational dis- long periods at the fu- wMich new workerscannot be readily tribution of employment ture date. recruited.

63 bEgugjalsr Modificatj.on of Summarz. ().cm.Dional Estimates gggEMI.91.19Y-22ZIAJILAccslaRgkIns In countries where basic There are a few occupations for data are sufficient to permit the which the demand is directly related development of future employment es- to a factorwhich can be indepen- timatesby industryand by occupa- dently projected. The numberof tional group, it will be a relative- teachersrequired, for example, is ly routine matter to summarize the affected by the number of pupils and estimates to derive a modelof the by trends in the ratio of teachers future employment structure of the to pupils. Projections ofpopula- country. Some classification prob- tionby age groupwill providean lemsmay be'encountered, however, estimate of the number of children since theoccupational titles and in the futurepopulation. Educa- theamount of detail may vary from tional plans will provide some guid- industry to industry, and thus the ance to the expected improvement in occupationswillnot be additive. theproportion ofpopulationin These problemsmay be resolved only school and the improvement in byclassifying all occupations into teacher-pupil ratios. Thus, an in- the appropriateoccupational groups dependent estimateof the number of and presenting the summary by.group. teachers required at the target date For instance, it may be possible to may be derived and incorporated into estimaterequirements inthe pro- the occupational breakdown. fessional, technical, and kindred workers occupational group, yet not The number of physicians needed be ableto estimate the required can berelated to the population number of chemists or physicists. growth with allowance for changes in the organization of medical services. In countries where Condition 1 If the existing ratio of physicians prevails (e.g., no statistics avail- topopulation inthe countryas a able for the overall economy) and whole is consideredto bebelow a the mostimportant industries are desirablestandard, ahigher ratio analyzed, the futureoccupational may be used to estimate future needs. requirements in thoseindustries The higher ratio could be that found will represent minimum requirements. inanarea ofthe country better Presumably totalrequirements for served byphysicians, theratio in specific occupations will besome- some othercountry, or a target whatgreater than the number indi- figure based on expert opinion con- cated for the major industries. The cerning needs. For a limited number forecast may be expressed as a range of occupations, such intensive study between a minimum and a maximum es- of the factors affecting employment timate. Such limited forecasts will can furnish the basis for direct es- provideusefulindications ofthe timates in the contextof the esti- dimensionof the expected manpower mated growth of population. shortage.

64 Chapter VII. ESTIMATING TRAINING NEEDS FOR EACH OCCUPATION (STEP 5)

Estimate training requirements 2. Deduct outflows.Estimate foreach importantoccupationby the number of retirements, deaths, analysis of the expected supply of and transfers out ofthe occupation qualifiedworkers, in comparison during the period under study. withthe requirements asindicated byoccupational estimatesforthe 3. Add inflows. Estimate the future period. number of entrants to the occupation from college and university courses, Education andtraining at all vocational schools; apprenticeship levelsis one of thecrucial needs programs, on-the-jobtraining and of the country which is embarked upgrading of skills, and other chan- upon a program of economic develop- nels. ment. Of particular concern at this stageof the present analysisare 4. Equals potential supply of the training requirements for those workers to the occupation. high-level occupations which require long term education and training or 5. Comparison with anticipated specialized skills. To estimate the requirements indicates shortage or numbex, ofpeople whoneed to be surplusof workers and provides es- trained to meet future requirements timates of training needs. in specificoccupations, it is necessaryto determinethe size of the present supply ofqualified The Current "Pool" of Qualified workersand estimate thepotential Workers increments to andlosses from this The potential current supply of supply. workers for each occupation may be defined asthose whoare currently The detail intowhich the oc- employedin the occupation, plus cupational groups are subdivided for others qualified for and capable of this analysis will dependupon the working in theoccupation butwho degree of detail of the source data. are not so engaged. Itmay be general, by broad occupationalgroup, orspecific, by de- Thus, the numberof persons tailed occupation, suchas that of qualified for employmentin an oc- chemist, and physicist.The general cupation will usually be larger than statement is saferand less subject thenumberactuallyemployedand to error; the specific statement is hencethe supply must beviewed as moreuseful, particularly to educa- elastic. Presumably additional num- tors andvocationalcounselors, to berswould enter or reenter an oc- the extent thatit calls attention cupation if inducements were offered to real differences in outlook among andif adequate recruitmentand occupations. placement services were available and utilized. Theanalysis proceeds as follows: It isvirtually impossible to 1. Determine the current "pool" measure the size ofthese marginal of qualified workers in each occupa- groups, but they can be identified tional category. for purposes of analysis.

65 People currently_ emagglAn be recognized that in most occupa- another occupation. There are many tions, an unknown numberof ad- individuals with multipleskills. ditionalqualified workers may be Circumstances determine the particu- available. This factor cannot be larjobs atwhich they work but a measured but should be borne in mind change in the labor market situation when consideringthe trainingre- could cause occupationalshifting. quirements for any given occupation- Forinstance, a qualifiedchemist al group. may be employedas a teacher; a qualified teacher may be employed as the proprietor of a dry cleaning es- Estimating Outflows tablishment. The term outflow is usedto aule currently notin the designatethe numberamong the am- labor force. Retiredpeople and ployed and qualified who will leave marriedwomen whohavewithdrawn the occupation for any reason during from the laborforce often possess the period under study. valuable skills. These persons may reenter the labor market if refresh- Outflowsare considered in ertraining courses are offered or three categories: (1) Deaths and re- if other inducements make employment tirements; (2) Transfers toother attractive to thmm. occupations; and (3) Emigration.

People with borderline occumm Deaths and retirements.. To es- tional skills.Employers' standards timate the number of deaths among change with theexigencies ofthe the members of an occupational group labor market. Workers whose quali- it isnecessary for each year under ficationsarenot quiteup to a study toapply an estimated annual specific standard may be hired under mortality rateto theestimated certain labor market conditions and total qualified workers. (a) If the may develop thedesired skills on age-sexcompositionof anoccupa- the job. They mightnot have such tional groupis known or can be es- anopportunity if there were more timated, specific mortality rates of highly qualified competitors. the general population may be applied to derive an estimate of the Peoplecurrently unemployed. number of deaths expected each year. Unskilled workers generally consti- Mortality rates for specific occupa- tutethe bulk ofthe unemployed in tions may bedifferent fromthe any country, butthere are excep- rates of the general population; if tions. In some cases artificial anyspecificinformationonthis barriers, such as discrimination point is available it should be used. against women, older workers, or mi- The most significant factoris the nority groups, prevent thefull agesex compositionof thegroup, utilization of these groups. Hence, although there may be specific haz- some persons possessingscarce oc- ards to be consideredin certain cupational qualificationsmaybe occupations. (b) If mortality rates among theunemployed. Thus it can for the population are not available

66 it is suggested that mortality rates ftElegAgEtality forthe population of adifferent country beused, onthe basis of South Africa (1945-47) 37 whatever knowledge there isabout Mexico (1940)...... 38 life expectancy. Generalized mor- Puerto Rico (1934-36) 39 talityrates asassociated with Trinidad (1934-32) 37 given levels of life expectancy are published by the United Nations. lid "Low" mortality, Forexample, inestimating deaths among high-leveloccupations in Trinidad (1954-56) 46 Ghana, the previouslycited study US Negro (1955) 46 "Survey of the High-Level Manpower Jamaica (1954-52) 45 in Ghana, 1960" reports: Ceylon (1947)...... 46

It was assumed that life Lower limits expectancy of males, aged 20, was a suitable measure of mor- Ceylon (1952) 49 tality experience of the labor force. Accordingly the range From these data it was de- of life expectancy in a number termined moreor less arbi- of populationswhich might be trarily to use mortality tables thought analagousto that of approximatinglife expectancy Ghana was examined for clues at age 20of 37 and 45 years, to high andlow estimates for respectively, for the °high' Ghana: and 'low' mortalityestimates for Ghana.These were selected Selected Rates of Mortality of from the model life tables for the Labor Force (expressed underdeveloped countriespub- as life expectancy of males, lished by the United Nationst21/ aged 20) Retirementsare estimatedon gmer limits the basisofthe known or assumed age composition of those employed in India...... 33 the occupation, estimating the num- Belgian Congo (1950-52) 34 be:- who will reach apredetermined Ceylon (1920-22) 35 retirementage at each yearin the future, after subtracting the es- 24J United Nations.Age and Sex timated deaths. Patterns of Mortality (NewYork). N7b0A/Series A,Population Studies In the United States, a tech- No. 22. nique has been developed whichpro- .2.5/ surve,Y_REIftekkE21 man- vides a pattern oflabor force par- 201E-111_241Nal, cp cit., p 58. ticipation entitled "Tables of Work- Life expectancyexpresses the aver- ing Life." These tablesfollow a agenumber of remaining years of cohort of 100,000 workersthrough life. Thus lifeexpectancy at age successive years showing the rate of 20 of 40 years meansthe average attritioncaused hy deaths, retire- expectationofliving toage 60. ments, and withdrawals, andthus

67 provide a basis for estimating retirement rates shown by deaths andretirements inthe fu- Wolfbein for the United States, ture. Annual deathand retirement 1955, were used, but applied to rates formen inthe United States Ghanaianage classes 10 years range from less than 1 percent per younger; e.g., UnitedStates annum to morethan3 percent in rates for 65-69appliedto variousoccupations, dependingon Ghanain age 55-59. Ej theage composition. For women workers, thewithdrawal rateis as Transfers to otheroalultima. highas 7 percent in some occupa- In a developing country where skills tions, reflectingthe effects of are in short supply, it may beex- marital statusand childrearingon pected that opportunities will arise women's work patterns. 1.6,/ forworkers to move up theoccupa- tionalladder through various kinds These tables are applicable of upgrading and training, both only in the United States since they formal and informal, As an economy are based upon mortality and retire- moves furtheraway from the tradi- ment experience in the United States. tional agricultural-handicraft struc- Ifsimilartables of workinglife ture toward industrialization, work- are available in the country being ers in considerable numbers move studied, or from a country withcom- from the unskilled category into the parable experience, they wouldcon- semiskilled, skilled, administrptive stitute a useful tool in estimating and managerial occupations, andinto outflows. the professions. Thistype of occupational mobility continues even In the Ghana study, the U.S. in a highly industrialized nation. tables of working lifewere utilized as follows: For example,one Of the conclu- sionsof a study of occupational The experience forthe mobility in theUnited States is as UnitedStates showninthe follows: 'Lengthof WorkingLife' by Seymour L. Wolfbeinwas used as The single.rost important a point ofdeparture; it was component in determiningthe assumedthat therewas an in- rate of growth of an occupation herent correlation between death rates and retirement 16/ United StatesDepartment of rates, since both arerelated Labor, Bureau ofLabor Statistics, to biological aging, even Tablesof WorkingLife J.Nr_Men. though customs and other socio- Tablesof Working_Life_ for Women economicfactors arealso in- (Washington, 1950). Bulletins 1001 volved, and at certainages may and 12042 respectively.Seymour L. be controlled. Enquiries con- Wolfbein, Length,of Working_ Life cerning retirenentcustoms in (Paperpresented beforethe Fourth Ghana revealedthat the custo- International GerontologicalCon- maryage ofretirement is 55, gress, Ebrano, Italy, July 1957). corresponding to 65 in the 17/ Purvez of Eigh4eyel.Van- United States. Accordingly, the rower in Ghana, op. cit., p. 58.

68 during any decade is the volume in size do so because of large- anddirection of net mobility. scalenet out-mobility rather Occupations which grow rapidly than because youth do not enter arethose into whichthere is them orbecause of retirements considerable net mobility. or deaths. 38/ Largenumbers of new entries from amongyouths who are en- The occupational distribution tering the working force is not of a specific cohort of men, aged 15 enough to insure the growth of to 24 yearsin 1930, was compared an occupation. On theother with the occupational pattern of the hand, the occupationswhich same men in 1950whcn the survivors either grow slowlyor decrease were 35 to 44 years of age.

Percent d ItiS20 LL

1930 1950

Total 100.0 100.0 Professional, technical, and kindred workers 2.9 6.8 Farmers and farm managers 5.2 12.6 Managers, officials, and proprietors, except farm 2.5 11.0 Clerical and kindred workers 8.9 5.5 Sales workers 5.8 6.1 Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred workers 10.4 18.4 Operatives and kindred workers 19.6 18.2 Service workers 3.8 6.2 Farm laborers and foreren 24.7 4.3 Laborers, except farm and mine 16.2 10.9

Inspection ofthese pic- Professional, technical, and tures of the occupational dis- kindred workers tribution of the same men taken Farmers and farm managers twentyyears apart clearlyin- Managers, officials, and pro- dicate that substantial mobil- prietors, except farm ity has occurred. Obviously Craftsmen, foremen and there was considerablenet mo- kindred workers bility into the groups: Service workers

There was also considerable net mobility out of: 1g/ A.J. Jaffe and R.C. Carle- ton, Occupational Mobility inthe Clerical and kindred workers United States 1930-1960 (New York, Farm laborers and foremen King's Crown Press, 1954)2 p. 27. Laborers, except farm and mine

69 With respect to the two remain- their way up from clerical and sales ing groups, sales workers and positions; one-quarter had begun as operatives, perhaps in-and-out operatives; and aboutone-tenth had mobility almost balancedeach theirfirstjobs as craftsmen or other. .29/ foremen; one-tenth as laborers; the rest had come from the other occupa- Additional insightinto the tional categories. patterns of mobilityin the United Statesis gained by ananalysis of ManaRers, officials, and.pro- work histories of individual workers. ricept farm. Of1,000 Jaffe and Carleton present an analy- young men who enterthis occupa- sis of patternsof workinglife tional groupprior to age 25, about based ondata from the study Labor one-quarterremain to the end of Mobility inSix Cities.AP/ This theirworking careers; aboutone- analysis confirms the findings cited fifthbecome clerical and sales above, and provides information workers; about8 percent enter the about individualworkers which per- professions; almosthalf become mits a moreprecise picture of the manual workers, about equally divid- types ofoccupational changes that ed between craftsmen and other man- take place. ual jobs.

The following isa summary of Of all men in this group at the the outflows and inflows to and from end oftheirworkinglives only occupationalgroups inrelation to aboutone-third began as white- (a) those who started their working collar workers, largely at the cler- career in thegiven occupational ical level. OnL-eighth began as group, and (b) those who were in the craftsmen; three-tenths as opera- givengroup at the end of their tives; two-tenths as laborers; a few working careers: 41/ -^ in service occupations.

a_.:fssiozvflal',technicall. and Clerical and sales workers. Of kindred workers. Of 1,000 young nen those who enter this group as young who enter thismajor occupational men, almost one-fifth (18 percent) groupand survive 40 years, about remainto the endof their working one-thirdremainthroughout their lives. The remainder shift as fol- workinglives. Anotherone-third lows: 22 percent to craftsmen and become eithermanagers, officials, foremen; 22 percent to managers, of- proprietors, orclerical and sales ficials, and proprietors; about 10 workers. About one-third end their percent to the professions; about 17 careers as manualworkers: perhaps percent to operatives; the rest to one-sixth are skilled craftsmen, and the unskilled groups. one-sixth operatives, service work- 110. ers, or common laborers. 191 Ibid,p. 35. ACY Gladys Palmer, Labor Mobil- Of menin this occupational ity, in Six Cities (New York, Social group atthe end oftheir working Science Research Council, 1954). careers, one-quarter hadbegun as Llj Jaffe andCarleton, op. professionals; one-quarter worked cit., pp. 54-57

70 countries. Of all clerical and saleswork- conditions of different mobility experienceofthe ers at the end oftheir careers, The United States, as cited above, will about one-quarterhad begun in this country occupationalgroup. Three-tenths not be applicable in another labor force of the United began as operatives; one-tenthas since the the most mobile craftsmen; one-tenth inprofessional States is probably However, this summary and managerial occupations;the re- in the world. of the one-quarter in unskilled may suggest thedimensions maining areas of re- work. problem and indicate searchwhichwould be helpful in Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred manpower programsin other countries. workers. Of1,000 youths in this When considering groupone-thirdremain, one-third Emieration. outflows, it must be rec- enterwhite-collar (professional, potential some workerawill managerial, clerical) occupations, ognized that permanently. and one-third move intoless skilled leave the country currently working manual jobs. Foreign nationals inthe country may return to their Of all men in this group at the homes. When largenumbers of students study abroad, some ofthem are end oftheir careers, about one- third began as operatives, one- likely to emigrate permanently. fourth as laborers, a few asservice Less than one-fifth began When emigration is significant, workers. be made for it as skilled workers, and one-fifth some allowance must of work- began ir white-collar occupations. in estimating future supply ers eventhough itis difficult to Operatives and kin4red workers. forecast. Of young men entering thisgroup, emigrationhas aboutone-fifth remainoperatives For example, limiting for their entire working life;about been animportant factor one-third enter white-eolJar occupa- the laborforcegrowth of Puerto 1950's, an tions, mostly xenagerial, clerical, Rico. During the early and sales jobs but a fewprofession- averageof 50,000 personsper year United States. In als; about one-third become crafts- migrated to the manpowersupply the men; a tenthenter service occupa- forecasting mi- tions; a few become laborers. Puerto Rico study assumes that gration will continue to 1975 at the Thase who are operatives at the same averagelevel as in the 1950's. ale end of theirworking lives began at To quote from the study: alloccupational levels; one-third began as operatives, one-fifth in We have assumed that the white-collar jobs, one-tenthcrafts- net migrant population will havethe age-sex men, one-quarteraslaborers, and continueto the rest in service occupations. composition that it had between 1953 and 1955. Data for these The extent to which individuals yearsshows that the great ma- move from oneoccupation to another jority of the migrants are less varies with the customs andeconomic than 30 yearsofage. The

71 ratio of the sexes is about mostimportant factorinour even but men migrate in largest estimates offuturemanpower numbers betweenthe ages of 20 supply. a/ and 30 while women migrate more evenly at all ages. After 30 years ofage there is anet Estimating Inflows migration toPuerto Rico which 1 accounts for the fact that our The term"inflow" isused to population projection shows designatethe numbers of people who equalor slightlylarger num- will enter the occupation during the bers ofpersonsinthe age period under study. Vajor elements groups 35-44and 45-54 than in ofthe inflowto anoccupation in the 25-34 year age group. the high-level category are:

It is also assumedthat 1. Graduation from appropriate net migrantpopulation will educational institutions and appren- have thesame educational com- ticeship programs. position as the totalpopula- 2. Completion of training tion.This assumption leads to abroad. conservative estimates of man- 3. Entrance without completing powershortages and surpluses formal training. by education level. The data 4. Transfersfromother oc- we have, although inconclusive, cupations. stronglyindicate thatin the 5. Immigration. pastahigherproportionof persons with more than average Graduations. For a limited education for their age and sex number ofoccupations, entrance to groups have been included among employment requires a specific the net migrants. Analysis of course of education or training. In the age structure of thepopu- making projections of future inflows lationinthe UnitedStates through graduations, it is necessary also indicates that the job at- to distinguishbetweenthosere- tractions of the States will be sultingfrom completion ofcourses strongest for thePuerto Rican bystudents currently enrolled in ageand sex groups whichhave the various courses, and those fur- already been most depleted. On therin the futureresultingfrom the other hand, since our esti- completionof training by students mates show that these same age, who have not yet begun the training. sex, andeducation groups will be inshort supply in Puerto If a count ofstudents cur- Rico, we maybe warranted in rently enrolled is available, allow- ourpreviously statedassump- ance should bemade forexpected tions. dropouts on the basis of past experience, thus deriving afairly ac- Thenumbers involved in' curate countof thenumber of our net migration estimates are ...-...11 so large asto make our migra- Puerto.Rico's,Yanpower Reeds tion assumptions easilythe and Supply, op. cit., p. 50.

72 graduates expected in the next 3 or Completion of training abroad. 4 years. This component of futare inflows may be negligible in some countries,but Long-term projections of future quiteimportant incountries which graduates, beyondthe completion traditionally send many young people date of students presently enrolled, abroad for higher education. If so, can bebaseduponthepopulation an attemptshould bemade to find projections by age group. This re- out the number of students abroad, quiresan assumption of the propor- their age, sex, field of study, and tionof each agegroup who will be expected completion date. completingeach levelof education the future years, and assumptions Entrance without.cmading as to thedistribution of such stu- formal training. In most countries, dents among the various courses. substantialnumbers of thepeople whodrop out of the formal training Apprenticeship programs and vo- programsare ableto enteran oc- cationalschooltraininggraduate cupation on thebasis of their par- each year a number of persons with tialtraining. Some insight into the skills required to enter various the extentto which thispractice crafts. In the UnitedStates and prevails may be acquiredbycon- many other countries,formal appren- ducting a survey of persons current- ticeshipprograms provide onlya lyengaged in such occupations. A small proportionof the entrants to study in the United States,kV for the skilled trades. Consideration instance, revealed that 21.6 percent must obviously be given to the rela- oftheprofessional engineers had tiveimportance ofapprenticeship not completedthe formaleducation programs and vocationalschools in normally considered as a requirement each country. Projections of future for entrance to the occupation. enrollments and completions can be madeon the basis of aknowledge of Transfers from otherocculm: current programs and expected future tions. Inflows fromother occupa- expansion, with appropriate allow- tions are anelement of the occupa- ance for dropouts. tional mobilitydiscussed above under"outflows." The two must be In some countries, education ofestimated together since, forthe ficials have made projections of en- labor force as a whole, outflows and rollments, dropouts, and completion inflows betweenvarious occupations oftraining for the various sectors must balance. of the educational system. An examination of theeduca- tional and experience backgroundof Al/ United States Department of members of aspecificoccupation Labor, Bureau ofLabor Statistics, such as may be available from a reg- Scientificand Technical Personnel isterof members of aprofessional in American Induqa. Boort on a society, may reveal information 120 Survey(Preparedfor the Na- about occupational transfers. Simi- tionalScienceFoundation, 1961), larly, a followup study of the grad- po15 uates of institutions of higher

73 education and/or apprenticeship availablefor employmentatany training would be usefulin deter- given time. mining the nature.and volume of occupational shifts. The 1960 pool ofqualified workers ImatUxation. Future immigra- in Occupation X. tion represents a potentialsource of workers at all levels of the oc- cupationalhierarchy. If inmigra- Currently employed 2,500 tion is expected to be significant, Estimate of qualified workers some allowance must be made for it. not currently employed 100

For example, Australia admitted more than1.2 million immigrants in Outflows 1960-70: the years 1947 through 1957, where- Deaths and retirements 225 as total populationin 1954 was 9 Transfers out. 100 nillion.An analysis of the occupa- Ehigration, including tionaldistribution and employment foreign nationals status of the immigrants appears in - 35o anarticle entitled "Employment of Post-War Immigrants in Australia."A4/ Inflows 1960-70: This analysis was made ponsibleby Completion of formal therecords ofthe International training at hone Refugee Organisation, statements by Those now in training 200 immigrants on admission, and occupa- Future entrants to tional data fromcensuses of 1947 training...... 350 and 1954. Such rich sources of in- Completion of training formation will notbe available in abroad...... OOOOO 30 most countries. To the extent that Without formal training.000 120 data of thiskind areavailable, Transfers in 350 they constitute a basis for arriving Immigration... OOOOOOOOOO 111111111= at some reasonableassumption re- + 1,050 garding the occupational characteristics of future immigrants. Estimate of 1970 supply in Occupation X 3,300 The Potential Supply of...Workers to Each OccupationalCate. cua Ak/ W. D. Barrie, and Mr. J. A summary ofthe estimates of Zubrzyski. "Employment of Post-War the various categories for each oc- Immigrants inAustralia," Inter- cupation will provide an estimate of national *Labour Review, March 1958, the future supply. Forexample the O. 239-253. Foradiscussion of following tabulation provides an'es- Canada's postwarimmigration see:, timate of qualified workersin Oc- David C.:Corbett, "Immigrants and cupation X in 1970.This estimate Canada's Economic Expansion," Inter- includes an unknown number of quali- national Labour Review, January 1958, fied workers whowillnot be pp. 19-37.

74 491 f tWI in the educational system and in the traiming activities of izdustry and The estimates of employment by government. occupation group as derived in Step 4maybe considered as requirements Despite the limitations of the or denand foreach category. The availabledata, and the uncertain- estimated supply as derived for each tiesof theassumptions andjudg- occupationalcategory in Step 5 can ments utilizedin makingsuch a be compared with the demand to pro- study, the conclusions reached vide an indication of theantici- should contributevaluable insights patedshortage orsurplus in each intothe training needs as related category. This information may to the future developmentofthe pointthe way to adjustment needed country.

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International Labour Office, Why Labour 7,eaves the Land, New Series No. 59 (Geneva, 1960). 229 pp.

Kaldor, Nicholas, yp_Es2LQg...._cStEssaszUty_s_nGiL._sAh. (London, Duck- worth, 1960). 302 pp.

Kerr, Clark and others, Industrialism and IndAstrial Nan (Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1960). 331 pp.

Kindleberger, Charles P., Economic Development (New York, McGraw-Hill, 1958). 325 pp.

Krause, Walter, Ec c D ve e t. the Un erdeveled W ld d the American InterestSan Francisco, Wadsworth, 1961 524 pp.

Kurihara, Kenneth K., The Keynesian Theory of Economic Development (New York, Columbia University Press, 1959).219 pp.

Kuznets, Simon S., Six Lectures on Economic Growth(Glencoe, Ill., Free Pruss, 1960). 122 pp.

Lauterbach, Albert T., ;ncreasing_the Wealth of Nations:the 9uest for Economic Development (Washington, Public Affairs Press, 1957). 40 pp.

Leibenstein, Harvey, Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth: Studies in the.TheorY of Economic Development (New York, Wiley, 1957). .295 pp. Lewis, W. Arthur, IhiaksazzjaLlungatarsaai(Homewood, 111 Irwin, 1955). 453 pp

Mason, Edward S., Economic Planningin Underdeveloped Areas3.9.2=Amtlea BUsiness (New York, Fordham University Press,1958). 87 pp.

Meier, Gerald M. and Robert E. Baldwin,Egorks.22yAmagatajkarzt. 1121212A.ABLEgiu (New York, Wiley, 1957 588 Pp.

Moulton, Harold G., ContrQ1.1.10. (Washington, Brookings Institution, 1949 . 397 pp.

MYrdal, Gunnar, EponomicTh9qm.Ang_Dbagam1201,11ftgim(London, Duck- worth, 1957). 167 pp.

Nurkse, Ragnar and Robert M. Stern,editors, Luq.,11.1121.31 World,kjamma jEcolmakeEmas(Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1961). 380 pp.

Okun, Bernard and Richard W.Richardson, autp... (New York, Holt, Rinehart and Winston,1961 498 pp.

Organization for European EconomicCooperation, European Productivity Agency. Problems of DeveloPmentl Series ofLectures on Economic Gtoth.

Pepelasis, Admantios and others,Economic Develpriment:bialvslip an4Case augm (New York, Harper,1961). 620 pp.

Rostow, Walt W., The Prpcess ofEconopic Growth, 2d. ed.,(Oxford, England, Clarendon Press, 1960). 372 pp.

Rostow, Walt W., The Stages ofEconomic Growth a Non-CommamistMgaresto (Cambridge, England, University Press,1960). 178 pp.

Shannon, Lyle W., editor, UnderdevelopedAreas: a Book of Rett_nes and Re- search (New York, Harper, 1957).496,pp.

Staley, Eugene, The Fut e deve edCotries P. t tions of Economic Development, rev.ed., New York, Praeger, 1961 483 pp.

Stanford Research Institute, TheRole of Small-Scale ManufacturinstinEconour Nations as a Guide ic Develo.fient. the erience of Industriall Advanced for NewlY DeveloPing AreasMenlo Park, California, 1957 1 7 pp.

Stulman, Julius, WorldEconomic.Developmentk_ a Program forUtilization of Full Capacity Production(Washington, Public Affairs Press,1961). 16 pp.

79 Theobald, Robert, The Reh and the Por a Stud of the Ec no cs f Risi expectations (New York, C. N. Potter, 1960 196pp.

Tinbergen, Jan, The Design of Development (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press, 1958). 99 pp.

United Nations, Secretary General, Economic Dev210912111_2LEIEDgmaft Countries (1\11aw York, 1959). 124 pp.

Villard, Henry H., Economic Development (New York, Rinehart, 1959). 229 pp.

Wird, Barbara, TheInlaotEast and West (New York, Norton, 1957). 152 pp.

Williamson, Harold F. and John A. Buttrick,Economic Devel ent: P - oiples and Patterns (New York, Prentice-Hall, 1954 ) 576 pp.

II. Economic Development--Specific Areas or Countries

AFRICA:

Batten, T. R. Problems of African Develoentm (London, Oxford University Press, 1960). 152 pp.

The Development of Africa; Report of the group of experts vresented to the Consultative Auggly_aftlaCsgmoll_plairom (Strasbourg, 1957). 69 pp.

East Africa High Commission, Some Notes on Industrial Deve].or.ment in East Africa (Nairetd, East African Industrial Council, 1956 ). 63 pp.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, EconomicSurvev ssisrlsagince_1922 (New York, 1959).248 pp.

FEDERATION OF BBODESIA AND NYASALAND:

Industrial & Process Engineering Consultants (in association with Sir Alexander Gibb and partners),The Detgamatjafikagfacturing Indust= Within the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland. Report presented to the Federal Assembly (London, 1960).Vol. 1, 252 pp.Vol. 3, 242 pp.

GHANA:

Akwalmah, K. A.) Prelude to Ghana's Industrialization (London, Mitre Press, 1959). 96 pp.

Second Development Plan (1959-64) (Accra, Government Printer, 1958). 124 pp.

80 KEUYA:

Fearn, Hugh, An African Ec . a Stud f the Econ Nyanza Province of KenYa. 1903-1953 London, Oxford University Press, 1961). 284 pp.

LIBYA:

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; TheEconomic_Develop- ment of Libya (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press,1960). 524 pp.

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,The Economic Develop- ment of Nigeria (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press,1955). 686 pp.

SOPALILAND:

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,The EMMOMY of the Trust Territory of Somaliland(Washington, 1957).99 pp.

SOruTH AFRICA:

Kock, Kichiel Hendrik de, The Economic Developmentof South Africa (London, King, '936). 131 pp.

TANGANYIKA:

,1 Development Plan for Tanganyika,1961/62-1963/64 (Dar es Salaam, Government Printer, 1961). 95 pp.

International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment, The Economic Develm- ment of Tanganyika(Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press, 1961). 548 pp.

UGANDA:

Elklan, Walter, T1.12,conomic Development ofUganda (London, Oxford University

Press, 1961). 7:1. )p.

International Bank for Reconstruction, andDevelopment, The Economic Develop- ment of Uganda (Baltimore, JohnsHopkins Press, 1962).475 pp.

.AMERICP:

Ellis, Howard S., tnd Henry C. Wallich,Economic Development for Latin America: Progggipms of a conference heldby tp, International Economic Associat on (New York, St. Martin's Press,1961).478 Pp.

81 Hanson, Simon G., Economic Pevelpmentin Latin Americasan Introduction t the Economic Problem of Latin AmericaWashington, Inter-American Affairs Press, 1951). 531 pp.

Lewis, William Arthur, "IndustrialDevelopment in the Caribbean," Caribbean Economic Review, December 1949, 79pp.

United Nations, Department of Public Information,The Economic Growth of Tventy Re ublicss the Work of the EconomicCommission for Latin America, New York, 1954 32 pp.

United Nations, Economic Commission for LatinAmerica, Economic Survey of Latin America, 1957 (New York, 1959).292 pp.

ARGENTIEA:

United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America,Analyses and Pro- jections of Economic Development. V. The Economic Development of Argen- tina (Mexico, DF., 1959). 128 pp.

BOLIVIA:

United Nations, Economic Commission for LatinAmerica, Analyses and Projec- tions of Economic Development. IV. The Economic Development of Bolivia (Mexico, DF., 1958). 300 pp.

BRAZIL:

United Nations, Economic Commission for LatinAmerica, Analyses and ProJec- tions of Economic Development. II. The Economic Development of Brazil (New York, 1956). 165 pp.

BRITISH GUIANA:

International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment, The Economic Develop- pent of British Guiana (Baltimore, Johns HopkinsPress, 1953). 366 pp.

COLOIBIA:

United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America,Analyses and Prolec- tions of Economic Development. III. The Economic Development of Colombia (Mexico, DF., 1957). 422 pp.

EL SALVADOR:

United Nations, Economic and Social Council,The Economic Development of El Salvador: Current Trends and ProJects, 1959. 175 pp.

82 GUATEMALA:

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, TheEconomic Develop- ment of Guatemala (Washington, 1951).305 pp.

HONDURAS:

Checchi, Vincent and associates, nduras- a Pr blem in Economic Develognot (New York, Twentieth Century Fund,1959 )4, 172 pp.

JAMAICA:

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The EconomicDevelop- ment of Jamaica (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press, 1952).288 pp.

101XICO:

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, TheEconomic Develop- ment of Mexico (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press, 1953).392 pp.

NICARAGUA:

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The EconomicDevelov- ment of Nicaragua (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press, 1953).424 pp.

PANAMA:

United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America, Analysesand Proiec- tions of Economic Development.VII. The Economic Development of Panama (Panama City, 1959).497 pp.

PERU:

Little, Arthur Dos A Program for the Industrial and Regional Developmentof Peru: a Report to the Government of Peru (Lima, Pacific Press, 1960). 198 pp.

United Nations, Economic Commission for Latin America, Analysesand ProJec- tions of Economic_Develounent.VI.The Economic Development of Peru 3Mexico, DF., 1959 323 pp.

PUERTO RICO:

Jaffe, Abram J., P o leJ bs d Economic Develoent. a Case History.d Puerto RicoSulemented by Recent Mexican ExperienceGlencoe, Free Press, 1959 381 pp.

83 Planning. Board", Rixertomeal, agnazias,usasumuLgs.iyert9 Pipp.19LO-1950s. 121496.3 0 3Uan,, 195)11))..179 Pp.

SteadS, Sakant Fbme.41%E ent of Puert Rico (Washing- toni, National. Rlannil Naseatation.,, 19 , 151 pp*

1 A14::

Intennateontat Btu* fttarrigteoraftuaidata ant Bevalapnents t. Rec9mmende- tiifinzttecre:ROnilkar, oloP et !roarsztDietiummrek Jo -Hop 0- Press, 'Waft

IlaSSZVErak

WecnaftimmarhaatforlecamArmation and; Development, Th, Economic Devfaop- smut erVesealtele, ( 3m1Ltmere, Jans Hopkins Press, 1961).494 PP$

ABE( old the FAR EAST:

Ilbited Nations,Economic Commission forAsiaand the Far East, Economic t in ....A.m....1stgekAsadtFa-eset(Lake Success, 1949 )..62pp. Melted nations,Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East, Economic ..m.__._UASoi'iaedthejlmjrdNELJA1 (Bangkok, 1962). 215 pp.

BURMA

Hagen, Everett E., The Ecomplc_pevelopment of Bum(Washington, National Planning Association, 1956)*88pp.

Ninistry of National Planning, Burma, Sec d F Ye P f t Burma (1961/62 to 1964/65) (Rangoon, GovernmentPrinting Officel 196 2113717. UYLON:

International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment,2121012 mnutstam(Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press, 1953). 829PP.

National Planning Council, Ceylon,.T.L1,...j,2a.M.an.-11eTenYeaz (Colombo, 1959).490 pp.

CRIN4 COYEUNIST:

Hughes, Trevor J. and D. E. Luard, auma.,12.4.i.&,2d. ed. (London, New York, Oxford UniversityPress, 1959). 235 pp.

84 Li, Choh-MingIM1 cDvl nt ef 0 st C. A argsaljg.thft First Five Berkeley, University of California Press, 1959 AZ 4,pp.

CHINA, REPUBLIC OF: "Development Harming inTaiwan,",'Utmatijanal Labour Review, Nov. 19571 PP. 479-495. Economic Develowerit of Taiwan,19177.7955,:idutual Security Mission toChina (Taipei, 19.56. i8271pp. Economic StatbilitatIon )loard,Reptittlic of 'Gana, Highlights 9f, theSecond Four-Yew Plan ler 'the.Economic,Developpent.of Taiwan(Taipei, 19911,7- 30 pp.

INDIA:

Baldwin, George Bo, I i th I tase Stu Economic Development'Glencoe," Free 1Pzeoest1959,no 339 P.P

Bauer, P. T., Indian ID P d Devel6 nt (New York, Praeger, 1961). 152 pp. Bonne, Alfred, Studies in_Economic Devdlopment; withSpecial Reference to Conditions in the Underdevalo ed as ofInesiern Asia and India (London, Routledge and Paul, 1957),294 pk.

Coale, Ansley J., and Edgar M. Hoover,`R ation 'Groh and Econoc peva).- ent in w-Income C triesa fC se Btu Prince- ton, N.J., Princeton UniversityPress, 1958 309-pp.

Deshmukhl C. D., E n micDeveloLyents o India 1 6 6a Parl)tatajDtC2: sPect, (New Delhi, AsiaPublishing House, 1957 141.PP. Narayana, D. L., Em.l.ent and Econoy. c Develoent a etudin T. chnia Aspects, Andhra University Series,No. ,6iIndia, Waltair, S. 1958 288 pp. Planning Commission, India, Proazmnesf Industrial Dev loent.16-6 (New Delhi, Manager of Publications,1956 439pp. Planning Commission, India,Review of ths+ First Five YearPW (New Delhi, 1957).479PP

Planning Commission, India,L'iltaL2111.2tmUnalL.JUIWISAllna (Net, Delhi, 1960).265 pp.

85 Rosen, George, Industrial Chanvin India; Industrial Growth, Capital Re- uirements and Technological Change1937-1955 (Glencoe, Ill., Free Press, 1958 ) 243 PP*

INDONESIA:

Higgins, Benjamin, Indonesials EconomicStabilization and Development (New York, Institute of PacificRelations, 1957).179 pp.

JAPAN:

Economic Planning Agency, Japan, NewLongRange Economic Plan of Japan 1961-1970 (Tokyo, Japan Times, 1961). 127 pp.

MALAYA:

International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment, The Economic DeveloRT. ment of Malaya (Baltimore, JohnsHopkins Press, 1955). 707 pp.

PAKISTAN:

Ministry of Industries, Pakistan,The Second Five-Year Plan for Small In- latE192_126.262 (Rawalpindi, 1960). 25 pp.

National Planning Board, Pakistan, TheFirst Five-Year Plan 1211:62 (Karachi, 1958). 625 pp.

Planning,Commission, Pakistan,nuLlesmaixtrItItjumuX2:61 (Karachi, 1960). 414PP.

PHILIPPINES:

Golay, Frank H*2 T1',1A..111.4DDines.; PublicPoliçy and Natiçpal E noiqç Devel- opment (Ithaca, N.Y., Cornell UniversityPress, 1961 ). 455 pp.

National Economic Council, Philippines,Three-1e Pr f Economnic and Social Development CPT 1959-60 to FY1961-62 Nhnila, 1959 171 pp.

THAILAND:

International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment, A Public Divelopment Pro ram for Thailand (Baltimore, Johns HopkinsPress, 1959).301 pp.

-^ VIET-NAM: United Nations, Tat-dicDeveloiaissenalet-N. Economic Survey Mission organized by the United Nations, International Labour Organization, and Food and Agriculture Organization (New York, 1959).298 pp.

EUROPE:

CYPRESS:

Thorp, Willard L., Suggestions for a Develo ent Program. Prepared for the Government of CypressNew York, 1961 . 113 pp.

GREECE:

Ninistry of Coordination, Greece, Preliminary Five Year Pro ramme for the Economic Develogmnt of Greeces_125119A1 Athens, 1959 117 pp.

ICELAND:

Chamberlin, William C., Economic Deve1omnent of Iceland Throu h World War II (New York, Colombia University Press, 1947 ). 141 pp.

ITALY:

Elements of a Programme for Raising Income and Em loent Levels in Ital

Over the Ten Years from 1955-1964, Provisional Draft Rome, 1955 . 96 pp.

THE MIDDLE EAST:

United Nations, Bureau of Economic Affairs, Eqpnpmic Develomeaz_13.11,e, Middle East. 1958-59, Supplement to World Economic Survey 1959 (New York, 'Oa). 125 pp.

IRAQ:

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Thlatoznigakeidgi& ment of Iraq (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Prees, 1952). 463 pp.

JORDAN:

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 221.9.--03 ment of Jordan (Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press, 1957). 488 pp.

87' SYRIA: International Bank for Reconstruction andDevelopment The Epokomic Dqvjapp- ment of brill,(Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Press, 1955 ).486 pp.

TuRKIY: International Hank for Reconstructionand Development, The Econow ofTyr py, RLe9tonetorgat jar aDeveloPment Program (Washington, i9iJ. 87 pp. In, =Pawn STUDIES--GENBRAL

Gizusberg, T.W al N t (New York, Simon and Schuster, 1958 183 pp. Goldstein, Harolcip F rec). De B3riej (-Baris atimbion forlmropeanEconomicooperation, 1958J.64.PP loldstais% Harold azsa 69.41:4ter1nag, Lod: of Lo Te ecti f Re-

o LeitatatiZatoX MiniAtx:y se !NomeAffairs 1959I Pp63-104

Illatbiaono irrederick a", %Ott:(10,11p :Kan! e oH h-Lev Rrinceton, 1961 20 pp.

Baribisoni, Frederic* Z. vet it! ; ct. t,.d Econ EL_ Proznea. Paper for (eke:Wm:0 e &Qfl Isib.or1Produettwity under the auspices of the loaternatoio0 it: Boonorke ittalidladtattzkono Aeptenitor1961.. Harbison, Frederic& TL1 14am:damp Boonomios (11- "Human Resource naming: Aid to Irretetqoad aelteopmenroZmoloment S 14ay 1960, pp. 3.24. Inte 0-tional Cooperation Administration,)itarsafgffrosriams opd g Economic Develookent(Washington, 1960).121 pp. Jaffe, Abram J. and Charles D.Stewart, Yammer Resoureetsnd ,New York, Wiley, 1951)532 PP. Xerr, Clark and others, "TheLabor Problem in EconomicDevelopment: A Framework for Reappraisal,"InternatAona,l, Labpur Review, March1955# pp. 223-235.

88 Raj, K. N., .Ad.1.1..nt As ecto f Planni i Underdeve ed )c.n.H. (Cairo, National Bank of Egypt, 1957 48 pp.

Werts, Leo R., AHammer ryogramfor Econovel ent and Observat o an&Sugeatiozis Coricernii Iia' a Mnpower ProszrapiNew 1960 153 pp. IV.MANPOWER STUDIESSPECIFIC AREAS OR COUNTRIES

AFRICA:

International Labour Office,1.41.....m.S.tiursisi, jagNort Afrca. New,Sarieg40 No. 60 (Geneva, 1960) 473 PP

GHANA:

Ministry of Information, Ghana,Survey of_ Hi)zh-Leyel Manpower- iQIanat (Accra, 1961).62 pp.

TUNISIA:

Merson, Burnie, "Manpower:The Key WeaRom int Tinnities3Ebonor5eBektle4,"s Employment Security Review, May196Q 15:r201.

UGANDA:

Powesland, P. G., Economic Policr an&Labonzt at Studv Zm Ulzandtes Rconomiz His....tcm(Uganda, East African; Institute: of: Sbetal&weak-ells 195J)).itt pp.

Thomas, Robert L., Report on the. SUrvey-ot Manpower, and, Trairdne. ' . Protectoratejkitish East, Afrims, J ar 1:93, Prepared bythe Ford Foundation in cooperation with the Minixtr7 ofEducation .; Labor.

AMERICA:

Fischlowitz, Estanisleu, "Manpower Problems and Pro ta in Latin America,* Monthly Labor Review, September1960kpp. 909-916.

United Nations, Economic Ca:mission forLatin America, Mukan Resources of Central Amer ca Panama and M co 1 in Relation to Some Appectp of Economic Development NewYorks 1960 155 pp.

United Nations, Economic Cornmissionfor Latin America, Progress Report on the Manpower Survey in LatinAmerica (Bogota, 1955). 39 pp.

89 Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Prospects, Skilled and Professi nal Eanmerir.....agn§La, 1945-1965 (Ottawa, 1957). 106 pp.

PERU:

Clay, Robert J., "The Employment Service and Manpower Planning in Peru," EgE2917191:Lf9OritY Review, May 1960, pp. 20-24.

PUERTO RICO:

Committee on Human Resources, Puerto Rico, Puerto Rico's Manpower Needs and Supply (San Juan, 1957). 134 PP

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO:

Ministry of Labour, Trinidad, Re ort on the Man ower Situation in Trinidad and Tobago No. 2, July 1959, Council Paper No. 12 of 1959 (frit-71----".dad,-7---M). 73 PP.

UNITED STATES:

Blank, David M. and G. J. Stigler, The Demand and Supply of Scientific Per- sonnel, General Series No. 62 (New York, National Bureau of Economic Re- search, 1957). 200 pp.

Brown, J. Douglas, and Frederick H. Harbison, lIgh=Talent Manpower for Icciencearidust: An Appraisal of Policy at Home and Abroad, Research Report Series No. 95 (Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1957). 98 pp.

Harbison, Frederick H., "High-Level Manpower: Needs and Resources," in Addresses on Industrial Relations, Bulletin 28 (Ann Arbor, University of Michigan, Bureau of Industrial Relations).

National Manpower Council, A Policy for Skilled Nsnpower (New York, Columbia University Press, 1954). 299 pp.

National Science Foundation, Long Ran e Demand for Scientific and Technical

Personnel; a Methodological Study Washington, 1961 . 70 pp.

National Science Foundation, Scientificsand Technical Personnel in American Industry, Report on a 1959 survey (Washington, 1961).62 pp.

New York (State) Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics, Pro ectin New Y rk State Job-Patterns. a Technical Su..lement to "J bs 1960-1970: The Changirig Pattern in New York State," Publication No. b-118 CAlbany, 1961 55 PP. 90 United States Department of Labor, Bureau ofLabor Statistics Manpower Needs and R s urces of the United States 1 0 1 Part IS joe of Findin s and Im lications Washington, May1960 38 pp.

ASIA and the FAR EAST:

CAMBODIA:

Steinberg, David 3. and others, CambodA. ItsPegple, Its Society/ Its Culture, Country Survey Series #2 (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1957). 345 pp.

CEYLON:

Sundrum, R. 1469 ...mnalINACTIIIILCALMOILSSAM2911:1216=12g1( C o 1 ombo, National Planning Council, 1959 34 pp

INDIA:

Datar, B. N., "Manpower Planning in India," .IJ1ternatipnalLabour Review, July 1958, pp. 56-70.

MYers, Charles A., Labor Problems in theIndustrialization of India (Cam- bridge, Harvard University Press,1958). 297 pp.

PAKISTAN:

Ministry of Health, Labour, and Social Welfare,Pakistan, Department of Man- power and Employment,Report on the 1959 Manpower Suy in Pakistan, Carried out under Labour Market Information ProgrammeKarachi, 19 2). 154 pp.

Ministry of Labour, Pakistan, Department ofManpower and Employment, Report of the ILO on the Manpower Survey in Pakistan(Karachi, 1958).126 pp.

Planning Commission, Pakistan, Development andUtilization ofMpapoxer (Karachi, 1960). 18 pp.

EUROPE:

GREAT BRITAIN:

Payne, George L., Britain's Scientificand Technical Man ower(Stanford,. Calif., Stanford University Press, 1 0 ). 466 pp.

91 NORWAY:

Skrindo, Thor, "Manpower Planningin Norway," International_LabowReview, August 1957, pp. 124-138.

THE MIDDLE EAST:

Badre, Albert Y. and Simon G.Siksek, Manp9wer and Oil inArab CoAptries (Beirut, American University Press,1960). 270 pp.

EGYPT:

Harbison, Frederick H. and 1.A. Ibrahim, BuggaiwzmaLtmgamtian Enterprise (New York, McGraw-Hill,1958). 230 pp.

IRAN: e . Ministry of Labor, Iran, NationalManpower Resources andRepirenients S Iran 19f8 (Washington, GovernmentalAffairs Institute, 1959 ).90 pp.

Proposed Hish-levelMenowerDeveloment of Iran: General Outline and Work Plan (Washington, GovernmentalAffairs Institute, 1959 10 pp.

OTHER:

AUSTRALIA: International Labour Review, Isaac, J. E., "ManpowerPlanning in Australia," November 1960, pp. 403-431.

V. PROJECTIONS AND OTHER REFERENCES in Aus- Barrie, W. D. and J. Zubrzyski,"Employment of Post-War Immigrants tralia," International LabourReview, March 1958, pp. 239-253.

Bruner, Jerome S., The Processof Education(Cambridge, Mass., Harvard UniversityPress,-TWO77-

Hagan, Everett E., Handbookfor Industry_Uudies,Center for International Studies at the MassachusettsInstitute of Technology(Cambridge, Mass., 1955). 85 pp.

International Labour Office,Annual Yearbook of LabourStatistics, Geneva. Classification of International Labour Office,International Standard gympations (Geneva, 1958). 236 pp.

International Labour Office, WhyLabour Leaves the Land(Geneva, 1960) 229 pp.

92 Jaffe, A. J. and R. O. Carleton, Occt ati naMobi it in the U. S. 1 0- 1.9k9. (New York, King's Crown Press, 1954 ). 105 pp.

National Bureau of Economic Research, Conferenceon Research in Income and Wealth, Long-Range Economic Projection (Princeton, N. J., Princeton Uni- versity Press, 19541. 476 pp.

Organization for European Economic Co-operation, Office for Scientific and Technical Personnel, Forecasting Manpower Needs for the Age of Science (Paris, 1960). 141 pp.

Palmer, Gladys, Labor Mobility in Six Cities; a Reporton the Survey og Patterns and Factors in Labor Mobilit 1 0 1 0 (New York, Social Science Research Council, 1954r. 177 pp.

Planning Commission, India, Occupational Pattern in ManufacturinIndustries India. 1956 (Delhi, India, 1959). 448 pp.

Union Panamericana, Instituto Interamericano de Estadistica, La Estructuna Demografica de las Naciones Americanas: Volume II, Tomo 2 1959). 282 pp.

United Nations, A e and Sex Patterns of Mortalit 2 New York, ST/SOA, Series A2 Population Studies No. 22.

United Nations, Economic Connissionfor Latin America, Analyses and Pro- Jections of Economic Development,I. An Introduction to the Technique of Programming (New York, 1955). 52PP

United Nations, Economic and Social Council, World liconomic SituationEval- uation of Long-Term Economic Projections (New York, 23 June 196OJ.Docu- ment No. E/3379. 42 pp.

Document No. E/3379/Add. 1, New York, 12 May 1960. 88 pp.

Document to. 0379/Add. 2, New York, 31 May 1960. 70 pp.

Document No. E/3379/Add. 3, New York, 20 June 1960. 98 pp.

Document No. E/3379/Add. 4, New York, 28 June 1960. 45 pp.

Document No. E/3379/Add. 52 New York, 18 July 1960. 22 pp.

United Nations, International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities, Statistical Papers, Series EC, No. 4, Rev. 1Clew York, 7951:77-253pp.

93 United Nations, National and P r Cata Inc Sev t Co t is Statistical Papers, Series El No. 1 New York,October 1950 29 pp.

United Nations, Statistical Office, ASystem ofNational Amu)* and Sup- Porting Tables, Studies in Methods,Series .F,No. 2, Rev. 1. (New York, 1960). 46 pp.

United Nations, Statistical Series for the Use of Less DevelopedCountries in Programmes of Econonic and Social Development,Statistical Papers, Series MI No. 31 (New Yor:177§75-).

U.S. Bureau of the Census, 31212CansarLof.112,2pon: 1950. Volt IV. kecial Reports, Part 1, Chapter D,Industrial Characteristics (Washing- ton, 1955).

U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Challenge of the19601s(Washington, 1960). 24 pp.

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Econo'cicsinth U.S.A. in Facts and Figures(Washington, 1960).253 pp.

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tab es Length of Working_ Life for Men, Bulletin 1001(Washington,1950 74 PP.

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tablesof Working Life for Women, Bulletin 1204 (Washington, 1950). 33 pp.

Wolfbein, Seymour L., Length cAtWorking Life. Paper presented before the 4th. International Gerontological Congress(Merano, Italy, July 1957). 7 PP. Appendix

International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities

List of Divisionsand Major Graups &la Major gEOR gE2R2 Division O.A riculture For- Divisions 2- . Manufactur- esta.,_L_hinting_ and Fishing la=g9MIALMA

01 Agriculture 29 Manufacture of leather and lea- 02 Forestry and logging ther and fur products, except 03 Hunting, trapping and game footwear and other wearing propagation apparel 04 Fishing 30 Manufacture of rubber products 31 Manufacture of chemicals and Division 1.Mining and quarry: chemical products ADE 32Manufacture of products of petroleum and coal 11 Coal mining 33Manufacture of non-metallic 12 Metal mining mineral products, except pro- 13 Crude petroleum and natural gas ducts of petroleum and coal 14Stone quarrying, clay and sand 34 Basic metal industries pits 35 Manufacture of metal products, 19Other non-metallic mining and except machinery and trans- quarrying port equipment 36 Manufacture of machinery, except Divisions 2-3.Manufacturing electrical machinery 37Manufacture of electrical machin- 20 Food manufacturing industries, ery, apparatus, appliances and except beverage industries supplies 21 Beverage industries 38 Manufacture of transport equip- 22 Tobacco manufactures ment 23Manufacture of textiles 39 Miscellaneous manufacturing in- 24 Manufacture of footwear, other dustries wearing apparel and made-up textile goods Division 4.. Construction 25Manufactures of wood and cork, except manufacture of furni- 40 Construction ture 26 Manufacture of furniture and Division 5. Electricity, Gas, fixtures Water2E6JAELE.Y.12EYiEta 27 Manufacture of paper and paper products 51 Electricity, gas and steam 28Printing, publishing and allied 52Water and sanitary services industries

95 ts

List of Divisions and gajor Groups--Uontinued

Major Group gE2R2 Division 6. Commerce Division 8. Services

61 Wholesale and retail trade 81 Government services 62 Banks and other financial in- 82 Community services stitutions 83 Business services 63 Insurance 84 Racreation services 64 Real Estate 85 Personal services

Division 7. Transport. Storage, and Communication gegNeely described

71 Transport 90 Activities not adequately 72 Storage and warehousing described 73 Communication

United Nations. Statistical Papers.Series 11, No. 4, Rev. 1.

* U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1963 0 - 682900