DOCUMENT RES l'MF ED 022 006 VT 004 521 By- Sugg, Matilda R. THE FORECASTING OF MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Dept. of Labor),Washington, D.C. Repor t No- BLS- 248 Pub Date Apr 63 Note-101p. EDRS Price MF-$0.50 HC-$4.12 Descriptors-BIBLIOGRAPHIES, DATA ANALYSISDEVELOPING NATIONS ECONOMIC PROGRESSEDUCATIONAL *LABOR FORCED NEEDS EMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENTOPPORTUNITIES, *EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS SOCIAL PLANNING *MANPOWER UTILIZATION, *METHODOLOGY,OCCUPATIONAL SURVEYS, PREDICTION, This handbook was designed toassist economists andstatisticiansinthe economically developing countries in initiatingand conducting studiesfor determining future manpower requirements inrelation to anticipated development.It outlines a method of estimating future manpowerrequirements by occupationand industry and future training requirements orhigh-level occupations. The method isbased largely on United States experience. However,modifications of the techniques used inthe United States are suggested based on astudy of forecasting techniquesemployed in different counties. Steps in the method are:(1) Derive a rough first approximationof the future employment structure by economicactivity, (2) Make adetailed analysis of each activity, (3) Modify the first approximationsof future employment inaccordance with the activity analysis, (4)derive an occupational employmentbreakdown in each activ4 in the future period,and 5) Estimate training requirementsfor each important occupation by analyzingthe probable supply of qualifiedworkers under existing training arrangements in comparisonwith estimated needs for thefuture period. A bibliography of materials on economicdevelopment in different countriesand an international standard industrialclassification of economic activities areincluded. (ET) Ci BLS ReportNo. 248 '14 I OF JIREMENTS c) UNITED STATESDEPARTMENT OFLABOR (A.D W. WillardWirtz, Secretary civ c=o BUREAU OF LABORSTATISTICS Ewan Clague,Commissioner Uit U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH, EDUCATION & WELFARE OFFICE OF EDUCATION THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN REPRODUCED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR ORGANIZATION ORIGINATING IT,POINTS OF VIEW OR OPINIONS STATED DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE OF EDUCATION POSITION OR POLICY. _THE FORECASTINGOF MANPOWER REQUIREMENTS, Prepared for AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONALDEVELOPMENT UNITED STATES DEPARTMENTOF LABOR W. Willard Wirtz, Secretary BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS Ewan Claws*, Commissionnr April 1963 Preface This manual is intended to serve as aguide in forecasting the manpower requirements associatedwith economic development. The methodoutlined is based largely onUnited States experi- ence. }lowlier, the author has suggested modificationsof the techniquesused in theUnited States, based upon a studyof forecasting techniques employed indifferent countries. The manual was preparedfor the Agency for International Development (AID) by Matilda R. Suggunder the supervision of Lloyd A. Prochnow in the Bureauof Labor Statistics' Division of Foreign Labor Conditions,William C. Shelton, Chief. Contents Page Chapter I. Introduction 1 The manpower problem 1 A manpower program for economic development 3 Factual data desirable for manpower programs 3 Anticipating future developments 4 Supplementary considerations in forecasting 5 Assumptions required for forecasts 6 Illustrative assumptions 7 Choice of a forecast year 8 Chapter II.Forecasting manpower requirements by industry and occupation, summary and method applicability 10 Summary of method. 10 Adaptation of this method on the basis of the statistics available 11 Chapter III. First approximation of employment by economic activity in a future year (Step 1) 13 Procedure for estimating total civilian employment in the future year 13 Procedure for estimating a breakdown of civilian employment by major sector 14 Procedure for estimating employment in each industry division in relation to total nonagricultural employment 18 Procedure for estimating employment in each industry in re- lation to employment in the divisions 30 Chapter IV. Detailed analysis of each important activity ( tep 2) 31 Preface to analysis 31 Selecting economic activities for detailed analysis 31 Information desired for analysis of each economic activity.. 35 Collection of data, suggested sources of published data 36 Preparing the analytical document for each economic activity to be analyzed 36 Chapter V. Modification of the first approximation (Step 3) 41. Fitting the conclusions of the analysis of important industries into the whole 44 Verification by analysis of Gross Domestic Product 44 Chapter VI. Estimated future employment by occupation (Step L) 47 Application of occupational composition patterns to industry projections 47 Oecupatioral grouping 63 Verification or modification of estimates for certain occupations64 Summary of occupational estimates 64 Chapter VII. Estimating training needs for each occupation (Step 5) 65 The current "pool" of qualified workers 65 Estimating outflovs 66 Estimating inflows 72 ContentsamContinued Page The potential supply of workersto each occupational category 74 Balancing requirements with supply ........ OOOOOOOOOO ............. 75 Bibliography. O OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ..................... OOOOO 77 Appendix..OO OOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ........................ 95 Tables: 1. EmploymeLt and unemployment in the UnitedStates, actual 1957 and projected 1965-75 14 2. United States: GainfUl workers inagricultural occupations, 1820 to 1930. OOOOOOOOO .............. OOOOOOO........ OOOOO 15 3. Agricultural employment as a percent of theeconomically active population in selected countries inselected years.. 16 4. Venezuela: Estimated distribution of the nonagricultural work force 1950, 1955, and 1959,_,..... OOOOO oeul0000s000es OOOOO 19 5. Alternative projections to 1970: Nonagricultural employment byindustry division--Hillandale ........................... 22 6. Computation of a line of regression of manufacturing'employ- ment on total nonagricultural employmentin Hillandale, 19514100.0000000000000.000000000000000000000000000000000000 28 7. Percent distribution of estimated totalemployment in India in manufacturing industries, byindustry-and najor occupa- tional groups, 195__ 6. OOOO ........... OOOOO ................... 50 8. Percent distribution of employed personsin the United States by industry and major occupational group,1950. ............ 52 9. Percent distribution of employedpersons in nonmanufacturing industries in the United States by industryand major occupational group, 1950 ................... OOOOO OOOOO 54 10. Percent distribution of economicallyactive population in Brazil by branch of economic activity and by major occupa- tional group, 1950........... OOOOO ............ OOOOOOOOOO 56 11. Percent distribution of economicallyactive population in Chile by branch of economic activity and by major occupa- tional group, 1952.... oul000 OOOOO o OOOOOOOOOOOO o OOOO ......... 58 12. Percent distribution of economically activepopulation in Guatemala by branch of economic activity and by major occupational group, 1950... OOOOO ......................... 60 Charts: 1. Trends in employment, by industry division1940-60, and pro- jections to 1970--Hillandale. ................. OOOOOOO 24 2.Trends in percentage distribution ofemployment, by industry division 1940-60, and projections to1970--Hillandale 25 3. Scatter diagram of total nonagricultural employmentand manu- facturing employment, 1951 through1960--Hillandale 27 The Forecasting of ManpowerRequirements Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION The ultimatesuccess of a pro- Eanover resources..The number of gram for economic andsocial develop- peopleavailable at a specific date ment will depend, in largemeasure, to perform the work of the Nation; on theavailatdlity of manpower pos- in the case of forecasts, the number sessing specific skills and training. expected under,stated assumptions to Moreover, thetrainingofskilled be available ata specificfuture manpower must be anintegral part of date; in other words, the supply of anoverall development planif that manpower. plan is to succeed. Man ower re uirements. The demand This handbook* isdesignedto for manpower; the estimated numbers assisteconomists and statisticians requiredat a specific date to per- in the economically developing coun- form the workof the Nation to im- tries in initiating andconducting plement the industrial, economic, studiesfor determining future man- and social development anticipated. powerrequirementsinrelation to anticipated development. It outlines The Marlpower PrOjem a method of estimatingfuture man- power requirements byoccupation and Vigorous efforts are being made industry and.future training require- in many countriesbyleadersof ments for high-level occupations. government, education, industry, and labor to accelerate the rate of eco- The following terms are used in nomic, social, and industrial devel- this handbook as defined: opment. The ultimategoal of such programs is to benefit thepeople of ManDower. Manpower is aneconomic the country by raising the standards resource just as material, equipment, electrical energy, and money are *Valuable assistance in the prep- economic resources. Manpower in the aration of this manual was provided economic senseisthe managerial, byother Bureau staff members, par- scientific, engineering, technical, ticularly Harold Goldstein, Chief of skilledand other personnel employed the Division of Manpower and Employ- in creating, designing, developing, ment Statistics and Howard Rosen of managing and operating