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International Migration, Economic INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, ECONOMIC Public Disclosure Authorized Development & POLICY Editors Çaglar Özden • Maurice Schiff Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized International Migration, Economic Development & Policy International Migration, Economic Development & Policy Çaglar- Özden and Maurice Schiff, Editors A copublication of the World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan © 2007 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 10 09 08 07 A copublication of The World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan. Palgrave Macmillan Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N. Y. 10010 Companies and representatives throughout the world Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave® is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denomi- nations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without per- mission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN-10: 0-8213-6935-0 (Soft cover) ISBN-10: 0-8213-7028-6 (Hard cover) eISBN-10: 0-8213-6936-9 eISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6935-7 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6935-7 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data International migration, economic development, and policy : overview / edited by Ça¯glar Özden and Maurice Schiff. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6935-7 ISBN-10: 0-8213-6935-0 ISBN-10: 0-8213-6936-9 (electronic) 1. Emigration and immigration. 2. Emigrant remittances. 3. Emigration and immigration—Economic aspects. I. Özden, Ça¯glar. II. Schiff, Maurice W. III. World Bank. JV6035.G57 2007 304.8—dc22 2007011294 Cover photo: Corbis Cover designer: Tomoko Hirata Contents Foreword xi Contributors xiii Acknowledgments xv Abbreviations xvii Overview1 Ça¯glar Özden and Maurice Schiff Part I GLOBAL MIGRATION DATABASE 1 Quantifying International Migration: A Database of Bilateral Migrant Stocks 17 Christopher R. Parsons, Ronald Skeldon, Terrie L. Walmsley, and L. Alan Winters Part II IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT 2 The Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Human Capital: Evidence from Latin American Household Surveys 59 Pablo Acosta, Pablo Fajnzylber, and J. Humberto Lopez 3 Does Work Migration Spur Investment in Origin Communities? Entrepreneurship, Schooling, and Child Health in Rural Pakistan 99 Ghazala Mansuri 4 Entrepreneurship, Labor Markets, and International Remittances: Evidence from El Salvador 141 Pablo Acosta v vi Contents 5 The Demographic Benefit of International Migration: A Hypothesis and Its Application to Middle Eastern and North African Contexts 161 Philippe Fargues Part III HOST COUNTRY POLICY EFFECTS 6 Immigration Incentives and Policy in Switzerland 183 Dominique M. Gross 7 The Impact of an Ex-Ante Job Offer Requirement on Labor Migration: The New Zealand-Tongan Experience 215 John Gibson and David McKenzie Part IV RETURN MIGRATION 8 Returns to Overseas Work Experience: The Case of Egypt 235 Jackline Wahba 9 Foreign-Born Migration to and from Norway 259 Bernt Bratsberg, Oddbjørn Raaum, and Kjetil Sørlie INDEX 291 Figures 1.1 Bilateral Migration Stocks 37 1.2 Source Country Shares of Certain Destination Regions 38 1.3 Destinations of Emigrants from Source Regions 39 1.4 Migration and Common Language 42 1.5 Migrants and Distance 46 2.1 Remittances to Latin America in 2004 65 2.2 Share of Households Receiving Remittances 67 2.3 Households Receiving Remittances by Quintile of the Distribution of Nonremittances Income 69 2.4 Average Years of Education for Adults Age 22 to 65 85 2.5 Differences in School Enrollment Rates for 12–17 Year Olds by Remittances Recipient Status 86 2.6 Anthropometric Measures for Children Age one to five, by Remittances Recipient Status: Guatemala 93 2.7 Anthropometric Measures for Children Age one to five, by Remittances Recipient Status: Nicaragua 94 3A.1 Enrollment and Dropout Rates, by Age and Wealth 137 3A.2 Gender Differences in Child Labor, by Age 138 3A.3 Gender Differences in Child Labor, by Wealth 139 4.1 El Salvador, International Migrant Remittances Flows, 1978–2004 145 5.1 A Framework of the Impact of International Migration on Birth Rates 165 Contents vii 5.2 Migration and Fertility in the Middle East and North Africa at the Time of Maximum Variation in Fertility 170 5.3 Remittances and Birth Rates in Egypt 173 5.4 Remittances and Birth Rates in Morocco 174 5.5 Emigration to the Gulf and the Transition of Fertility in Egypt at the Time of the Gulf War (1991), by Governorate 175 5.6 Emigration and the Fertility Transition by Province in Morocco 175 5.7 Emigration and Fertility by Province in Turkey, 2000 176 6.1 Level of Permanent Foreign Population and Unemployment Rate 187 6.2 Employment of Foreign and Swiss Populations 189 6.3 Total Inflow and Outflow of Foreign Permanent Residents 189 6.4 Shares of Inflow of Permanent Residents by Motives 192 6.5 Distribution of Immigrants from Some Regions of Origin 195 9.1 Immigration to Norway, 1967–2003 262 9.2 Immigrant Flows to Norway, by Gender 266 9.3 Fraction of Immigrants Remaining in Norway, by Gender 269 9.4 Fraction of Immigrants Remaining in Norway, by Gender and Region of Origin 271 9.5 Kernel Density Plots of Duration until Reimmigration 286 Tables 1.1 Who Qualifies as a Migrant? 20 1.2 Disparities between the Foreign Born and Foreign Migrants in Portugal 21 1.3 New Caledonia Migrant Split on the Basis of Population Shares for Melanesia 25 1.4 Population Splits 26 1.5 Propensity Shares for “Other Oceania” Split for Portugal 31 1.6 Database Versions 32 1.7 Share of Migrant Population in Total and from/to Neighboring Country 34 1.8 Percentage of World Migrants Recorded as a Bilateral Movement between Pairs of Countries/Regions 36 1.9 Migration Intensity Measures 41 1.10 Migration and Language: Migration Intensity Measures 43 1.11 Average Distance between Original and Destination Countries 45 1.12 Average Difference in GNI Per Capita between Original and Destination Countries 47 2.1 Household Surveys Used 66 2.2 Two-Step Estimates of Nonrecipient Households’ Income 73 2.3 Two-Step Estimates of Nonrecipient Households’ Income: First-Step Results of Auxiliary Regressions 75 2.4 Impact of Remittances on Headcount Poverty 78 viii Contents 2.5 Impact of Remittances on Headcount Poverty 79 2.6 Impact of Remittances on Headcount Poverty 80 2.7 Impact of Remittances on Headcount Poverty 81 2.8 Access to Remittances and Children’s Education: OLS 87 2.9 Remittances and Children’s Education by Mother’s Education 89 2.10 Remittances and Health Outcomes 95 3.1 Migration and Household Structure 108 3.2 Impact of Return Migration on Household Investment in Nonfarm Enterprises 112 3.3 Impact of Return Migration on Household Investment in Farm Assets 113 3.4 Impact of Return Migration on the Purchase of Agricultural Land 114 3.5 Impact of Migration on Schooling and Child Labor 119 3.6 Child Schooling in Migrant Households 124 3.7 Impact of Migration on Child Growth 128 3A.1 Migrants’ Region of Origin and Destination 135 3A.2 Determinants of Migration and Return Migration 136 4.1 Descriptive Differences by Remittances Recipient Status, 2000 Household Survey 147 4.2 Probit and Tobit Results for Labor Force Participation and Hours Worked, 2000 Household Survey 150 4.3 IV Probit and 2SLS Results for Labor Force Participation and Hours Worked, 2000 Household Survey 152 4.4 Probit and Tobit Results for Self-Employment and Business Ownership, 2000 Household Survey 154 4.5 IV Probit Results for Self-Employment and Business Ownership, 2000 Household Survey 156 5.1 Total Fertility Rates of Foreign Citizen Women Residing in France Compared with Women in Their Country of Origin and with French Women, Around 1980, 1990, and 2000 167 5.2 Total Fertility Rates in 1999 Among Foreign Women Residing in France According to Date of Immigration 168 5.3 Correlation
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