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China Chemical Drug Sector Research Analysts INITIATION 19 January 2015 Asia Pacific/China Equity Research Major Pharmaceuticals (Healthcare CN (Asia)) China Chemical Drug Sector Research Analysts INITIATION Zen Zhou 852 2101 7640 [email protected] Big sheep run faster Iris Wang 852 2101 7646 Figure 1: Using three criteria to screen chemical drug companies [email protected] Strong Attractive Capable R&D commercialization Overall ranking valuation capability Hengrui Sihuan CSPC Huahai Salubris Dawnrays x Sino Biopharm Luye Humanwell CMS Fosun Pharma - Highest, - Lowest. Overall ranking is valued by weighted average of three criteria (Capable R&D:35%, Strong commercialization capability: 35%, Attractive valuation: 30%) Note: The four companies labelled with blue colour are initiated by us this time. Source: Credit Suisse ■ Stay on the sweet spot (Oncology and CNS). We forecast China’s chemical drug sector to deliver 15% CAGR in 2014–16, reaching about Rmb900 bn market size; however, the growth rate will vary among different therapeutic areas due to the higher morbidity rate for chronic diseases related to ageing population, urbanisation and lifestyle changes. We expect oncology drugs (17.5% CAGR in 2014–16) and CNS drugs (18.1% CAGR in 2014–16) to gain market share, while anti-infective drugs (9.5% CAGR in 2014–16) to lose market share. ■ Only the leader will win. China’s chemical drug market is fragmented compared to the global level (CR10: 15% vs 42%), but we see the domestic leading companies are gaining market share. We believe the trend of consolidation will stay stable, driven by: (1) higher barrier for R&D, (2) higher barrier for manufacturers, (3) favourable tender policy and (4) more M&A. ■ Our stock picking criteria is: (1) capable R&D capacity, (2) strong commercialisation capability and (3) attractive valuation. ■ Initiate on four stocks: Hengrui (TP Rmb49, 26% upside, OUTPERFORM) > Huahai (TP Rmb19, 32% upside, OUTPERFORM) > Salubris (TP Rmb45, 19% upside, OUTPERFORM) > Humanwell (TP Rmb29, 5% upside, NEUTRAL); among all A -and H-share chemical drug stocks, our top picks are Hengrui, Sihuan, Huahai and CSPC Pharma. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 19 January 2015 Focus charts Figure 2: We expect the chemical drug sector to deliver Figure 3: We believe oncology and CNS segments will +15% growth in 2014–2016 grow faster Rmb, bn China chemical drug market size (ex-factory price) 200 20% 1000 180 18% 900 15% 160 16% 800 140 14% 700 120 12% 100 10% 600 22% 80 8% 500 60 6% 16E market size CAGR market 16E size CAGR 400 40 4% - 20 2% 300 2014 2016E 2016E market (Rmb, TA size bn) 0 0% 200 Strong Attractive 100 Capable R&D commercialization Overall ranking valuation 0 capability 2016E market size (Rmb, bn) 2014-16E market size CAGR (RHS) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016EHengrui Source: Wind, Credit Suisse estimates Sihuan Note: CNS represents central nervous system, while CCV represents CSPC cardiovascular and cerebrovascular. Source: SFDA, Credit Suisse Huahai estimates Figure 4: The big pharmas grow faster in revenuesSalubris Figure 5: Sector concentration rate is increasing 30% Dawnrays x Revenue YoY 51% Sino Biopharm 25% 49% Luye 47% 20% Humanwell 45% 15% CMS Fosun Pharma 43% 10% - Highest, - Lowest. Overall41% ranking is valued by weighted average of three criteria (Capable Revenue YoY Revenue YoY growth 5% R&D:35%, Strong commercialization capability: 35%, Attractive valuation: 30%) drug manufacturers drug 39% 0% 37% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 Concentration rate of top 100 domesticof top rate Concentration Large group Small group 35% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2020E Note: Revenue YoY is calculated by adding up all company’s revenue Note: Concentration rate is calculated by dividing revenue of top-100 within each group. Source: Wind, Credit Suisse estimates companies by overall market size of drug manufacture segment. Source: Menet, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 6: Three stock picking criteria Figure 7: Ranking of chemical drug companies we cover R&D expense Capable R&D No. and sales of capacity No. of R&D staff blockbuster drugs No. of FTM/patent drugs on pipeline No. and efficiency of sales staff Strong Domestic sales Sales of drugs in commercialization reimbursement list capability Overseas potential Overseas sales as % of total Number of ANDA/DMF P/E ratio Attractive valuation PEG ratio Source: The four companies with blue labelling are our coverage this Note: The four companies labelled with blue colour are initiated by us time. Source: Wind, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates this time. Source: Credit Suisse research China Chemical Drug Sector 2 19 January 2015 Big sheep run faster Stay on the sweet spot (oncology and CNS) We forecast China’s chemical drug sector to deliver 15% CAGR in 2014–16 reaching We expect oncology and about Rmb900 bn market size. However, the growth rate will vary among different CNS to gain market share therapeutic areas as the higher morbidity rate for chronic diseases is related to ageing while anti-infective to lose population, urbanisation and lifestyle change. We expect oncology drugs (17.5% CAGR in market share 2014–16) and CNS drugs (18.1% CAGR in 2014–16) to gain market share while anti- infective drugs (9.5% CAGR in 2014–16) to lose market share. Only the leader will win Our research shows that larger companies recorded better operating results over small Larger companies recorded companies from 2009 to 2014 with higher revenue growth (20% vs 9%), gross margin better op. results over small (46% vs 42%) and ROE (19% vs 13%). We believe the trend will remain unchanged driven companies from 2009–14 by: (1) higher barrier for R&D, (2) higher barrier for manufacturer, (3) favourable tender with higher revenue growth, policy and (4) more M&A. gross margin and ROE Higher barrier for R&D. (1) The number of SFDA chemical drug approvals dramatically decreased from 889 in 2010 to 374 in 2013, despite rising numbers of new applications. (2) On an average, cost of each new drug application increased to Rmb4.5 mn in 2013 from Rmb2.4 mn in 2010. Higher barrier for manufacturer. New GMP (good manufacture practice) guidelines were New GMP (good announced by CFDA. (1) All pharmas are required to meet new guidelines by end-2013/end- manufacture practice) 2015, (2) about 13% of pharmas in China are loss making and cannot afford a GMP upgrade guidelines set higher barrier (about Rmb20 mn for each production line) and (3) by the end of 2013, 99% of top 100 for manufacturer pharmas got the new GMP certificates, while the total compliance rate was only 60.3%. Favourable tender policy. We believe that tender policies favour big pharma companies Tender policies favour big in two ways: (1) when setting up the tender scoring system, most provinces give credits on pharma companies the companies’ scale and (2) the big pharmas, which usually have rich pipelines can take the chance to monetise new drugs. More M&A. In China, the concentration rate of the top ten pharmaceutical companies was In China, the concentration ~15%, far below 52% in the US and the global level of 42%. According to the data from rate of pharmaceutical Bloomberg, the consolidation in the China healthcare sector shows an accelerating trend. companies is growing faster In 2013, the total deal value of M&A within the China healthcare sector was recorded at US$5.1 bn, with a YoY growth rate of 43% Three stock-picking criteria ■ Capable R&D capacity: Capable R&D is the key advantage to protect margin and We use strong R&D capacity, growth sustainability. Hengrui leads in the criteria. commercialisation capability ■ Strong commercialisation capability: For domestic market, strong sales capability is and attractive valuation as important given most players sell homogeneous generics. For overseas market, the US stock-picking criteria generic market is facing an opportunity driven by deficit budget and the upcoming patent cliff. Hengrui leads in the domestic market while Huahai wins market shares in the US. ■ Attractive valuation: The A-share chemical drug sector is trading at 27x 2015E P/E. We prefer stocks with discount or reasonable premium. Initiate on four chemical drug stocks Our pecking order is Hengrui (TP Rmb49, 26% upside, OUTPERFORM) > Huahai (TP Rmb19, 32% upside, OUTPERFORM) >Salubris (TP Rmb45, 19% upside, OUTPERFORM) >Humanwell (TP Rmb29, 5% upside, NEUTRAL); among all A- and H-share chemical drug stocks, our top picks are Hengrui, Sihuan, Huahai and CSPC Pharma. Key risks include setback in drug tendering, price cut and development of new drugs. China Chemical Drug Sector 3 19 January 2015 Valuation comparison Figure 8: Valuation metrics EPS Company Name Ticker Rating Mkt cap Price TP Up/Dow n P/E EV/EBITDA P/B ROE CAGR % PEG Reuters (US$, mn) (Local) CS (%) 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2014-16 2015 A-Chemical drugs Hengrui 600276.SS OUTPERFORM 9,432 38.9 49.0 26% 39.5 31.1 25.5 35.3 28.8 9.2 7.5 19.5% 18.9% 24.5% 1.3 Haisco 002653.SZ Not rated 3,440 19.8 34.1 26.9 23.0 43.3 27.2 11.1 5.5 29.8% 26.3% 21.8% 1.2 Salubris Pharm 002294.SZ OUTPERFORM 3,999 38.0 45.0 19% 23.7 19.5 16.0 23.3 18.8 7.9 6.6 26.5% 27.9% 21.5% 0.9 Kelun Pharm 002422.SZ Not rated 3,705 31.9 17.8 14.5 15.7 15.4 8.9 2.4 1.4 11.6% 9.7% 6.4% 2.3 Hongcheng Mach 600566.SS Not rated 2,595 20.6 32.3 25.8 20.9 n.a.
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