July 9, 2011 China China Weekly Kickstart Portfolio Strategy Research July 4-8: Strong market after the long awaited rate hike China equity markets rallied, with MXCN +2.1% (MXAPJ +1.8%) and CSI300 +1.9% . Vice Premier Wang Qishan said the govt needs to help SMEs tackle financing difficulties, which further raised expectations on possible loosening in 2H2011 (although we believe a quota allocation change is more likely than a total quota increase). PBOC hiked interest rates mid week, which was long expected and should be the last this year. Upbeat global trends (Greece etc) also contributed to the strong market. We expect 2Q GDP growth of 9.4% yoy (8.0% qoq sa ann), with June CPI rising to 6.4% from 5.5% in May; July may remain elevated or possibly even higher. This week’s performance summary Key ideas from GS China Research Sectoral performance diverged between onshore We remain upbeat and expect performance to Helen Zhu +852-2978-0048
[email protected] and offshore this week. Cyclicals generally year-end to be driven largely by earnings growth Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. outperformed offshore in the rally. Building (some slight multiple expansion is possible by late materials and property topped the performance in the year). However, market expectations on Hanfeng Wang, Ph.D, CFA table on a possible switch in policy stance but loosening have risen significantly, so more +86(10)6627-3318
[email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited underperformed onshore. Autos performed well volatility near-term is possible as the inflation data given newsflow (Xinhua News) on possible may remain concerning for June/July and we Timothy Moe, CFA supportive policies emerging.