19 January 2015 Asia Pacific/China Equity Research Major Pharmaceuticals (Healthcare CN (Asia)) China Chemical Drug Sector Research Analysts INITIATION Zen Zhou 852 2101 7640
[email protected] Big sheep run faster Iris Wang 852 2101 7646 Figure 1: Using three criteria to screen chemical drug companies
[email protected] Strong Attractive Capable R&D commercialization Overall ranking valuation capability Hengrui Sihuan CSPC Huahai Salubris Dawnrays x Sino Biopharm Luye Humanwell CMS Fosun Pharma - Highest, - Lowest. Overall ranking is valued by weighted average of three criteria (Capable R&D:35%, Strong commercialization capability: 35%, Attractive valuation: 30%) Note: The four companies labelled with blue colour are initiated by us this time. Source: Credit Suisse ■ Stay on the sweet spot (Oncology and CNS). We forecast China’s chemical drug sector to deliver 15% CAGR in 2014–16, reaching about Rmb900 bn market size; however, the growth rate will vary among different therapeutic areas due to the higher morbidity rate for chronic diseases related to ageing population, urbanisation and lifestyle changes. We expect oncology drugs (17.5% CAGR in 2014–16) and CNS drugs (18.1% CAGR in 2014–16) to gain market share, while anti-infective drugs (9.5% CAGR in 2014–16) to lose market share. ■ Only the leader will win. China’s chemical drug market is fragmented compared to the global level (CR10: 15% vs 42%), but we see the domestic leading companies are gaining market share. We believe the trend of consolidation will stay stable, driven by: (1) higher barrier for R&D, (2) higher barrier for manufacturers, (3) favourable tender policy and (4) more M&A.