Jersey Multi-Species Distribution, Habitat Suitability & Connectivity
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Amphibian and Reptile Conservation RESEARCH REPORT 18/01 Jersey multi-species distribution, habitat suitability & connectivity modelling R.J. Ward and J.W. Wilkinson ARC Science Team 1 Acknowledgements We are grateful for the cooperation of the Jersey Biodiversity Centre, Tim Ransom, the Société Jersiaise and its various botanical, zoological and mycological sections, and all others that provided data for this study. This includes all of those who have contributed records over the years to provide sufficient data for this project. Natural Environment, Growth, Housing and Environment, States of Jersey, provided mapping data, support and valuable comments on the report. We also wish to thank the varied landowners, land managers, policy makers and species experts who participated in workshops and provided valuable insights and constructive feedback to the development of this project. SUGGESTED CITATION: Ward, R.J. and Wilkinson, J.W. (2018) Jersey multi-species distribution, habitat suitability and connectivity modelling. ARC Research Report 18/01. Amphibian and Reptile Conservation 655A Christchurch Road Boscombe Bournemouth Dorset, UK, BH1 4AP E-mail: [email protected] 2 Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... 2 Tables and Figures .................................................................................................................... 5 Additional documentation ........................................................................................................ 13 Study aims ............................................................................................................................... 13 Background .............................................................................................................................. 15 Purpose Statement .............................................................................................................. 15 Habitat loss and fragmentation ............................................................................................ 15 Jersey ................................................................................................................................... 16 Biodiversity ....................................................................................................................... 16 Conservation issues ......................................................................................................... 17 Species protection ............................................................................................................ 20 Connecting wildlife ............................................................................................................ 22 Materials and Methods ............................................................................................................ 24 Software and Data ............................................................................................................... 24 Study Area ............................................................................................................................ 24 Habitats ............................................................................................................................. 24 Protected areas, policy and planning ............................................................................... 26 Study Species ...................................................................................................................... 33 Step 1 ‒ Identifying and reviewing study species ............................................................ 33 Data analysis ........................................................................................................................ 37 Step 2 ‒ Species Distribution Modelling .......................................................................... 37 Step 3 – Habitat Concentration Areas (HCAs) ................................................................ 44 Step 4 – Connectivity analyses ........................................................................................ 55 Step 5 – Priorities for protection and restoration ............................................................. 58 Results ..................................................................................................................................... 59 Step 1 – Focal species ......................................................................................................... 59 3 Step 2 – Species distribution models................................................................................... 59 Step 3 ‒ Habitat concentration areas (HCAs) ..................................................................... 64 HCA Validation ................................................................................................................. 72 Step 4 ‒ Wildlife corridors .................................................................................................... 74 Step 5 ‒ Areas important for connectivity ............................................................................ 83 Opportunities for conservation ............................................................................................. 87 Discussion .............................................................................................................................. 108 Selection of focal species .................................................................................................. 108 Factors influencing species distributions ........................................................................... 109 Habitat Concentration Areas .............................................................................................. 110 Built-up areas .................................................................................................................. 110 Connectivity ........................................................................................................................ 111 Landscape designations .................................................................................................... 111 Land management ............................................................................................................. 112 Limitations .......................................................................................................................... 113 Further research ................................................................................................................. 114 Conclusions and recommendations ...................................................................................... 114 References ............................................................................................................................. 118 4 Tables and Figures Table 1 A summary of Jersey’s biodiversity, showing the number of species known in Jersey and its waters (including non-natives)............................................................................ 18 Table 2 Documents / conventions relevant to the protection of species and environmentally sensitive areas in Jersey. ............................................................................................... 27 Table 3 Protected area and site designations in Jersey. ........................................................ 28 Table 4 Landscape classifications related to protections from development and other activities which may negatively affect character. Rankings are based on the level of protection each classification affords a site and the wildlife within it. The total area covered, and percentage of total land area within that designation are shown. ................................. 32 Table 5 Summary table of focal species included in this study, showing their common and scientific names, protected status within Jersey and the UK and the number of high accuracy records available (No. obs.). Protections are categorised as follows for species listed under: a the Conservation of Wildlife (Jersey) Law 2000 (CWL2000) or the Conservation of Wildlife (Protected Plants) (Jersey) Order 2009 (CWL2009); b a Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP) in Jersey (Jer) or the UK; c the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 (Great Britain only); d The Convention on the Conservation of European Wildlife and Natural Habitats (Bern Convention); e The Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (also known as the Bonn Convention); f the EC Council Directive 92/43/EEC on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora (also known as the Habitats Directive); g the Agreement on the Conservation of Populations of European Bats (EUROBATS); and h The Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations 2017 (shown here as TCHSR) (Great Britain only). .................... 35 Table 6 Landcover classifications derived from data provided by Natural Environment, Growth, Housing and Environment, States of Jersey. The feature types incorporated are shown, and the proportion (%) of the island that they encompass in vector format and after they have been converted to 25 m raster cell size (shown as vector/raster). ....................... 40 Table 7 Summary table of predictor layers used during model building. Units are indicated in italics in square brackets [ ]. ........................................................................................... 42 5 Table 8