Modelación De La Elección De La Bicicleta Pública Y Privada En Ciudades

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Modelación De La Elección De La Bicicleta Pública Y Privada En Ciudades MODELACIÓN DE LA ELECCIÓN DE LA BICICLETA PÚBLICA Y PRIVADA EN CIUDADES MODELING OF CHOICE OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE BICYCLE IN CITIES I.C. ÓSCAR EMILIO ARBELÁEZ ARENAS. Tesis presentada como requisito parcial para optar al título de: Magíster en Ingeniería - Infraestructura y sistemas de transporte Director: Iván Reinaldo Sarmiento Ordosgoitia, PhD. Codirector: Jorge Eliécer Córdoba Maquilón, PhD. Universidad Nacional de Colombia Facultad de Minas Medellín, Colombia 2015 NOTAS DE ACEPTACIÓN Firma de Jurado Firma de Jurado Agradecimientos Mis más sinceros agradecimientos a la Universidad Nacional de Colombia-Sede Medellín al permitirme como becario completar mis estudios de Maestría; al profesor Iván Sarmiento por el direccionamiento en el desarrollo de este trabajo, por sus recomendaciones y sugerencias siempre certeras además de su apoyo; al profesor Jorge Eliécer Córdoba por proveerme de herramientas para la comprensión de aspectos complejos en el desarrollo de la presente tesis. Resumen VI Resumen Como parte de la etapa de partición modal en la planeación del transporte, ha sido común la utilización de modelos de elección discreta, la presente investigación propone un modelo de elección entre modos motorizados y la bicicleta como alternativa en estudio, presentando una metodología general que luego se aplica a la ciudad de Medellín-Colombia. Los datos usados corresponden a 1231 encuestas realizadas en la ciudad de Medellín a usuarios de distintos modos de transporte, con las cuales se estimaron modelos híbridos de elección discreta con la inclusión de las variables latentes: seguridad y comodidad. Los modelos fueron usados luego con fines predictivos para conocer el porcentaje potencial de usuarios teniendo en cuenta el modo en el que los encuestados realizan su viaje principal. Como hallazgo principal se cuenta la posibilidad de modelar la disposición de uso de la bicicleta frente a otros modos motorizados, en un contexto urbano con la inclusión de variables latentes a los modelos de elección discreta estimados. A partir de lo anterior se obtuvo un porcentaje de usuarios potenciales para la bicicleta del 5,14% de los viajes motorizados de 2014 en la ciudad de Medellín, estando principalmente representados en usuarios de auto, bus y metro. Palabras clave: bicicleta, variables latentes, modelos de elección discreta, modelos híbridos, demanda de transporte. Resumen VII Abstract As part of the stage of modal split on transportation planning, it has been common to use discrete choice models, this research proposes a model of choice between motorized vehicles and bicycle as alternative on study, presenting a general methodology then applied to the city of Medellin-Colombia. The data used correspond to 1231 surveys carried out in Medellin to users of different transport modes, with which hybrid discrete choice models were estimated with the inclusion of the latent variables: safety and comfort: The models were then used to forecast the percentage of bicycle potential users considering the respondents current mode of transport for their main trip. The key finding is the possibility of modeling the disposal to use the bicycle over other motorized modes of transport, in an urban context with the inclusion of latent variables to estimate the discrete choice models. From the above, it was obtained a percentage of potential users for the bicycle of 5.14% of the total motorized trips in Medellin in 2014, being represented mainly by car users, bus and metro passengers. Keywords: bicycle, latent variables, discrete choice models, hybrid models, travel demand. Contenido VI Contenido Resumen ..................................................................................................................... VI Abstract ..................................................................................................................... VII Lista de figuras .......................................................................................................... VIII Lista de tablas ............................................................................................................. IX Lista de Símbolos y abreviaturas ................................................................................... X 1. INTRODUCCIÓN ................................................................................................... 11 1.1 Problemática ............................................................................................................ 12 1.2 Preguntas específicas de la investigación ................................................................... 13 1.3 Objetivo general ....................................................................................................... 13 1.4 Objetivos específicos ................................................................................................. 13 1.5 Hipótesis ................................................................................................................... 13 1.6 Metodología ............................................................................................................. 14 1.6.1 Revisión bibliográfica ............................................................................................... 14 1.6.2 Identificación de variables ....................................................................................... 14 1.6.3 Diseño de encuestas de preferencia revelada y preferencia declarada .................. 14 1.6.4 Formulación y estimación del modelo de elección discreta .................................... 15 2. ANTECEDENTES ................................................................................................... 16 2.1 El transporte en bicicleta ........................................................................................... 16 2.1.1 La demanda de transporte en bicicleta ................................................................... 17 2.1.2 Estadísticas del transporte en bicicleta .................................................................... 27 2.1.3 Sistemas de bicicletas públicas ................................................................................ 30 2.1.4 Seguridad vial y uso de la bicicleta ........................................................................... 32 2.1.5 Infraestructura recomendada .................................................................................. 34 3. MARCO TEÓRICO ................................................................................................. 39 3.1 Modelos econométricos de elección discreta ............................................................. 39 Contenido VII 3.1.1 Técnicas de recolección de la información .............................................................. 40 3.1.2 Teoría de la utilidad aleatoria .................................................................................. 40 3.1.3 Modelos econométricos de elección discreta ......................................................... 42 3.1.4 Modelos híbridos de elección discreta con variables latentes ................................ 44 3.1.5 Especificación de modelos híbridos de elección discreta con variables latentes .... 46 4. METODOLOGÍA PROPUESTA ................................................................................ 49 4.1 Grupo focal ............................................................................................................... 49 4.2 Metodología para el diseño de la encuesta de preferencias declaradas y definición de variables ............................................................................................................................ 51 4.2.1 Conjunto de elección................................................................................................ 51 4.2.2 Variables explicativas: tiempo de viaje (TV) y Costo (C) .......................................... 52 4.3 Encuesta de preferencias reveladas ........................................................................... 56 4.3.1 Características socioeconómicas y caracterización del viaje ................................... 56 4.3.2 Indicadores de percepción ....................................................................................... 57 4.4 Encuesta piloto ......................................................................................................... 59 4.5 Encuesta definitiva .................................................................................................... 59 4.6 Análisis estadístico de la información recopilada ....................................................... 61 4.6.1 Características socioeconómicas .............................................................................. 61 4.6.2 Análisis estadístico por tipo de usuario e indicadores de percepción ..................... 62 5. FORMULACIÓN Y ESTIMACIÓN DE LOS MODELOS ................................................ 69 5.1 Formulación del modelo logit multinomial ................................................................. 69 5.2 Formulación secuencial del modelo híbrido de elección discreta con las variables seguridad y comodidad ...................................................................................................... 70 5.3 Resultados de la estimación de los modelos de elección discreta ................................ 73 5.4 Análisis de los resultados obtenidos para los modelos de elección discreta ................. 78 5.5 Análisis predictivo ....................................................................................................
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