Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks Forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, Eds
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Critical Thinking and Debiasing: Experimentation in an Academic Writing Course
JAPAN ASSOCIATION FOR LANGUAGE TEACHING JALT2019 • TEACHER EFFICACY, LEARNER AGENCY NOVEMBER 1–4, 2019 • NAGOYA, JAPAN Critical Thinking and Debiasing: Experimentation in an Academic Writing Course esearch and interest in cognitive heuristics (shortcuts in thinking) and cognitive Guy Smith R biases (thinking predispositions or tendencies) has grown rapidly in the past 10 to 15 years. What is known about cognitive biases today owes much to work drawn from International Christian University behavioral economics, social psychology, decision making, and error studies. Recently, the cognitive bias discussion has found a much wider audience with the publication John Peloghitis of popular science books such as Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (2008), International Christian University Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely (2009), Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow (2011), and Robert Cialdini’s Pre-suasion (2016). These books provided the general public with a fascinating and, in some ways, unsettling look into how we think. The Reference Data: research demonstrated that judgments and decisions often emerge from taking thinking Smith, G., & Peloghitis, J. (2020). Critical thinking and debiasing: Experimentation in an academic shortcuts, relying on our intuitions and feelings, and attending to certain stimuli while writing course. In P. Clements, A. Krause, & R. Gentry (Eds.), Teacher efficacy, learner agency. ignoring others. Some of the biases that emerge from these cognitive processes include Tokyo: JALT. https://doi.org/10.37546/JALTPCP2019-51 confirmation bias (to look for or interpret information that confirms a previous belief), in- group bias (a tendency to favor members of your in-groups) and the aptly named ostrich In the last two decades, interest in cognitive biases has rapidly grown across various fields of effect (the tendency to ignore negative situations). -
Contingent Reliance on the Affect Heuristic As a Function of Regulatory Focus
Contingent Reliance on the Affect Heuristic as a Function of Regulatory Focus Michel Tuan Pham Tamar Avnet Results from four studies show that the reliance on affect as a heuristic of judgment and decision-making is more pronounced under a promotion focus than under a prevent ion focus. Two different manifestations of this phenomenon were observed. Studies 1–3 show that different type s of affective inputs are weighted more heavily under promotion than under prevention in person-impression formation, product evaluations, and social recommendations. Study 4 additionally shows that valuations performed under promotion are more scope- insensitive—a characteristic of affect-based valuations—than valuations performed under prevention. The greater reliance on affect as a heuristic under promotion seems to arise because promotion-focused individuals tend to find affective inputs more diagnostic, not because promotion increases the reliance on peripheral information per se. Although decision research has historically focused affective responses to make judgments and decisions, on the cognitive processes underlying decision making, to begin with? a growing body of research from multiple disciplines The purpose of this research is to test the suggests that affective processes play an important role hypothesis that an important determinant of the as well. In particular, there is strong evidence that reliance on affect as a heuristic for evaluations and decisions are often based on subjective affective decisions is the self-regulatory orientation of the responses to the options, which appear to be seen as decision-maker. Building on recent findings by Pham indicative of the options’ values (Bechara, Damasio, and Avnet (2004), we propose that the reliance on Tranel, & Damasio, 1997; Loewenstein, Weber, Hsee, affect as an evaluation heuristic is more pronounced & Welch, 2001; Pham, 1998; Schwarz & Clore, 1983). -
The Availability Heuristic
CHAPTER 11 THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC According to Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (1974, p. 1127), the availability heuristic is a rule of thumb in which decision makers "assess the frequency of a class or the probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind." Usually this heuristic works quite well; all things being equal, common events are easier to remember or imagine than are uncommon events. By rely ing on availability to estimate frequency and probability, decision mak ers are able to simplify what might otherwise be very difficult judg ments. As with any heuristic, however, there are cases in which the general rule of thumb breaks down and leads to systematic biases. Some events are more available than others not because they tend to occur frequently or with high probability, but because they are inherently easier to think about, because they have taken place recently, because they are highly emotional, and so forth. This chapter examines three general questions: (1) What are instances in which the availability heuristic leads to biased judgments? (2) Do decision makers perceive an event as more likely after they have imagined it happening? (3) How is vivid information dif ferent from other information? AVAILABILITY GOES AWRY Which is a more likely cause of death in the United States-being killed by falling airplane parts or by a shark? Most people rate shark attacks as more probable than death from falling airplane parts (see Item #7 of the Reader Survey for your answer). Shark attacks certainly receive more publicity than do deaths from falling airplane parts, and they are far easier to imagine (thanks in part to movies such as Jaws). -
Nudge Theory
Nudge Theory http://www.businessballs.com/nudge-theory.htm Nudge theory is a flexible and modern concept for: • understanding of how people think, make decisions, and behave, • helping people improve their thinking and decisions, • managing change of all sorts, and • identifying and modifying existing unhelpful influences on people. Nudge theory was named and popularized by the 2008 book, 'Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness', written by American academics Richard H Thaler and Cass R Sunstein. The book is based strongly on the Nobel prize- winning work of the Israeli-American psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. This article: • reviews and explains Thaler and Sunstein's 'Nudge' concept, especially 'heuristics' (tendencies for humans to think and decide instinctively and often mistakenly) • relates 'Nudge' methods to other theories and models, and to Kahneman and Tversky's work • defines and describes additional methods of 'nudging' people and groups • extends the appreciation and application of 'Nudge' methodology to broader change- management, motivation, leadership, coaching, counselling, parenting, etc • offers 'Nudge' methods and related concepts as a 'Nudge' theory 'toolkit' so that the concept can be taught and applied in a wide range of situations involving relationships with people, and enabling people to improve their thinking and decision- making • and offers a glossary of Nudge theory and related terms 'Nudge' theory was proposed originally in US 'behavioral economics', but it can be adapted and applied much more widely for enabling and encouraging change in people, groups, or yourself. Nudge theory can also be used to explore, understand, and explain existing influences on how people behave, especially influences which are unhelpful, with a view to removing or altering them. -
Mechanisms in Risky Choice Framing
Mechanisms in Risky Choice Framing Affective Responses and Deliberative Processing Liva Jenny Martinussen Master of Philosophy in Psychology, Cognitive Neuroscience Department of Psychology University of Oslo April 2016 II Mechanisms in Risky Choice Framing: Affective Responses and Deliberative Processing By Liva Jenny Martinussen Department of Psychology UNIVERSITY OF OSLO III © Liva Jenny Martinussen 2016 Mechanisms in Risky Choice Framing: Affective responses and Deliberative Processing Author: Live Jenny Martinussen http://www.duo.uio.no/ IV Summary Author: Liva Jenny Martinussen Supervisors: Anine Riege (Supervisor) and Unni Sulutvedt (Co-Supervisor) Title: Mechanisms in Risky Choice Framing: Affective Responses and Deliberative Processing Background: The risky choice framing effect is a decision making bias, where people tend to be risk-averse when options are presented as gains and risk-seeking when options are presented as losses, although the outcomes are objectively equivalent. The mechanisms involved in risky choice framing effects are still not fully understood. Several individual differences are assumed to moderate the processing of framing tasks and the magnitude of framing effects. Objectives: The aim of the current study was to investigate the framing effect across six framing task in a within-subject design, and explore whether gain and loss frames were associated with different levels of affective responses and deliberative processing. An additional aim was to investigate how individual differences in emotion management ability and numeracy affected performance and processing of framing tasks. Method: The study was an independent research project and the author collected all the data. Eye-tracking technology was employed; number of fixations, duration of fixations, repeated inspections of options and pupil dilations were recorded from 80 predominantly young adults while performing on six framing tasks. -
CHALK TALK Thinking About Thinking: Medical Decision Making Under the Microscope Christiana Iyasere, MD, and Douglas Wright, MD, Phd
SGIM FORUM 2011; 34(11) CHALK TALK Thinking about Thinking: Medical Decision Making Under the Microscope Christiana Iyasere, MD, and Douglas Wright, MD, PhD Drs. Iyasere and Wright are faculty in the Inpatient Clinician Educator Service of the Department of Medicine at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boson, MA. ase: A 36-year-old African-Ameri- athletic—he graduated from college than 10 seconds and says “20,160” C can woman, healthy except for with a degree in physics and has before moving breezily along with treated hypothyroidism, visits you in completed several triathlons. Neil is a her coffee. Having Katrina’s input, are clinic complaining of six months of fa- veteran of the US Navy, where he you tempted to change your answer tigue and progressive shortness of served as fleet naval aviator and land- to questions 3a and 3b? Go ahead, breath with exertion. You thoroughly ing signal officer. Is Neil more likely to admit it. Aren’t you now more confi- interview and examine the patient. be: a) a librarian or b) an astronaut? dent that the correct answer is that Physical examination reveals conjunc- Question 2: Jot down a list of the product is closest to 20,000? tival pallor and dullness to percussion English words that begin with the let- Question 5: You have known one third of the way up both lung ter “r” (e.g. rooster). Next, jot down your medical school roommate Jus- fields. Something tells you to ask her a list of words that have an r in the tice for four years. -
The Law of Implicit Bias
The Law of Implicit Bias Christine Jolls† Cass R. Sunstein†† Considerable attention has been given to the Implicit Association Test (IAT), which finds that most people have an implicit and unconscious bias against members of traditionally disadvantaged groups. Implicit bias poses a special challenge for antidiscrimination law because it suggests the pos- sibility that people are treating others differently even when they are un- aware that they are doing so. Some aspects of current law operate, whether intentionally or not, as controls on implicit bias; it is possible to imagine other efforts in that vein. An underlying suggestion is that implicit bias might be controlled through a general strategy of “debiasing through law.” Introduction Consider two pairs of problems: 1A. A regulatory agency is deciding whether to impose new restric- tions on cloning mammals for use as food. Most people within the agency believe that the issue is an exceedingly difficult one, but in the end they support the restrictions on the basis of a study suggesting that cloned mammals are likely to prove unhealthy for human consumption. The study turns out to be based on palpable errors. 1B. A regulatory agency is deciding whether to impose new restric- tions on cloning mammals for use as food. Most people within the agency believe that the issue is an exceedingly difficult one, but in the end they support the restrictions on the basis of a “gut feeling” that cloned mammals are likely to be unhealthy to eat. It turns out that the “gut feeling,” spurred Copyright © 2006 California Law Review, Inc. -
Mitigating Cognitive Bias and Design Distortion
RSD2 Relating Systems Thinking and Design 2013 Working Paper. www.systemic-design.net Interliminal Design: Mitigating Cognitive Bias and Design Distortion 1 2 3 Andrew McCollough, PhD , DeAunne Denmark, MD, PhD , and Don Harker, MS “Design is an inquiry for action” - Harold Nelson, PhD Liminal: from the Latin word līmen, a threshold “Our values and biases are expressions of who we are. It isn’t so much that our prior commitments disable our ability to reason; it is that we need to appreciate that reasoning takes place, for the most part, in settings in which we are not neutral bystanders.” - Alva Noe In this globally interconnected and information-rich society, complexity and uncertainty are escalating at an unprecedented pace. Our most pressing problems are now considered wicked, or even super wicked, in that they commonly have incomplete, continuously changing, intricately interdependent yet contradictory requirements, urgent or emergency status, no central authority, and are often caused by the same entities charged with solving them (Rittel & Webber, 1973). Perhaps similar to philosopher Karl Jaspers’ Axial Age where ‘man asked radical questions’ and the ‘unquestioned grasp on life was loosened,’ communities of all kinds now face crises of “in-between”; necessary and large-scale dismantling of previous structures, institutions, and world-views has begun, but has yet to be replaced. Such intense periods of destruction and reconstruction, or liminality, eliminate boundary lines, reverse or dissolve social hierarchies, disrupt cultural continuity, and cast penetrating onto future outcomes. Originating in human ritual, liminal stages occur mid-transition, where initiates literally "stand at the threshold" between outmoded constructs of identity or community, and entirely new ways of being. -
Heuristics & Biases Simplified
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Master of Behavioral and Decision Sciences Capstones Behavioral and Decision Sciences Program 8-9-2019 Heuristics & Biases Simplified: Easy ot Understand One-Pagers that Use Plain Language & Examples to Simplify Human Judgement and Decision-Making Concepts Brittany Gullone University of Pennsylvania Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/mbds Part of the Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons Gullone, Brittany, "Heuristics & Biases Simplified: Easy to Understand One-Pagers that Use Plain Language & Examples to Simplify Human Judgement and Decision-Making Concepts" (2019). Master of Behavioral and Decision Sciences Capstones. 7. https://repository.upenn.edu/mbds/7 The final capstone research project for the Master of Behavioral and Decision Sciences is an independent study experience. The paper is expected to: • Present a position that is unique, original and directly applies to the student's experience; • Use primary sources or apply to a primary organization/agency; • Conform to the style and format of excellent academic writing; • Analyze empirical research data that is collected by the student or that has already been collected; and • Allow the student to demonstrate the competencies gained in the master’s program. This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/mbds/7 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Heuristics & Biases Simplified: Easy ot Understand One-Pagers that Use Plain Language & Examples to Simplify Human Judgement and Decision-Making Concepts Abstract Behavioral Science is a new and quickly growing field of study that has found ways of capturing readers’ attention across a variety of industries. The popularity of this field has led to a wealth of terms, concepts, and materials that describe human behavior and decision making. -
A Disinformation-Misinformation Ecology: the Case of Trump Thomas J
Chapter A Disinformation-Misinformation Ecology: The Case of Trump Thomas J. Froehlich Abstract This paper lays out many of the factors that make disinformation or misinformation campaigns of Trump successful. By all rational standards, he is unfit for office, a compulsive liar, incompetent, arrogant, ignorant, mean, petty, and narcissistic. Yet his approval rating tends to remain at 40%. Why do rational assessments of his presidency fail to have any traction? This paper looks at the con- flation of knowledge and beliefs in partisan minds, how beliefs lead to self-decep- tion and social self-deception and how they reinforce one another. It then looks at psychological factors, conscious and unconscious, that predispose partisans to pursue partisan sources of information and reject non-partisan sources. It then explains how these factors sustain the variety and motivations of Trump supporters’ commitment to Trump. The role of cognitive authorities like Fox News and right-wing social media sites are examined to show how the power of these media sources escalates and reinforces partisan views and the rejection of other cognitive authorities. These cognitive authorities also use emotional triggers to inflame Trump supporters, keeping them addicted by feeding their anger, resentment, or self-righteousness. The paper concludes by discussing the dynamics of the Trump disinformation- misinformation ecology, creating an Age of Inflamed Grievances. Keywords: Trumpism, disinformation, cognitive authority, Fox News, social media, propaganda, inflamed grievances, psychology of disinformation, Donald Trump, media, self-deception, social self-deception 1. Introduction This paper investigates how disinformation-misinformation campaigns, particularly in the political arena, succeed and why they are so hard to challenge, defeat, or deflect. -
Influence of Cognitive Biases in Distorting Decision Making and Leading to Critical Unfavorable Incidents
Safety 2015, 1, 44-58; doi:10.3390/safety1010044 OPEN ACCESS safety ISSN 2313-576X www.mdpi.com/journal/safety Article Influence of Cognitive Biases in Distorting Decision Making and Leading to Critical Unfavorable Incidents Atsuo Murata 1,*, Tomoko Nakamura 1 and Waldemar Karwowski 2 1 Department of Intelligent Mechanical Systems, Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University, Okayama, 700-8530, Japan; E-Mail: [email protected] 2 Department of Industrial Engineering & Management Systems, University of Central Florida, Orlando, 32816-2993, USA; E-Mail: [email protected] * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel.: +81-86-251-8055; Fax: +81-86-251-8055. Academic Editor: Raphael Grzebieta Received: 4 August 2015 / Accepted: 3 November 2015 / Published: 11 November 2015 Abstract: On the basis of the analyses of past cases, we demonstrate how cognitive biases are ubiquitous in the process of incidents, crashes, collisions or disasters, as well as how they distort decision making and lead to undesirable outcomes. Five case studies were considered: a fire outbreak during cooking using an induction heating (IH) cooker, the KLM Flight 4805 crash, the Challenger space shuttle disaster, the collision between the Japanese Aegis-equipped destroyer “Atago” and a fishing boat and the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant meltdown. We demonstrate that heuristic-based biases, such as confirmation bias, groupthink and social loafing, overconfidence-based biases, such as the illusion of plan and control, and optimistic bias; framing biases majorly contributed to distorted decision making and eventually became the main cause of the incident, crash, collision or disaster. -
Affect Heuristic: the Roles of Task Type, Cognitive Capacity, And
Affect Heuristic: The Roles of Task Type, Cognitive Capacity & Biased Judgments Julia Nolte, M.A., M.Sc., & Corinna E. Löckenhoff, Ph.D. – Cornell University | ID: 965 6206 2129 Password: SJDM [email protected] Zoom Link: https://cornell.zoom.us/j/96562062129?pwd=MFptTDBMV0c1VFZ0TWpsWVpiRFJLZz09 The Affect Heuristic The affect heuristic derives judgments from positive and negative feelings towards stimuli. It is unknown whether different affect heuristic tasks assess the same construct and exhibit typical hallmarks of heuristic processing: A negative relationship with cognitive capacity1 and a positive relationship with bias2. Methods Results Pre-registered Qualtrics survey (AsPredicted.org #29144) Hypothesis 1: Reliance on the affect heuristic is correlated across task types. ! No! rρs = -.09 to .12, ps = .111 to .494 (inter-correlation among affect heuristic task indices) N Age Range Mage SDage Non-Hispanic White Female 195 21 – 90 52.95 18.10 71% 50% Hypothesis 2: Stronger use of the affect heuristic predicts greater bias. ! No! Affect-Impact Task Task Type Bias Index Affect Heuristic ! Bias Events that evoke more negative feelings are perceived to Affect-Impact Average(|Human Impact – Natural Impact|) β = .05, p = .508, pseudo-R2 = .00 have worse impact than other events, even if their objective Dread-Inference Average(|Frequency Rating – Actual Frequency|) β = -.04, p = .636, pseudo-R2 = .99 impact is identical. 3 Risk-Benefit N/A (same index as affect heuristic index) N/A • 3 catastrophes x 2 causes (human vs. natural cause) • Affect: