A Disinformation-Misinformation Ecology: the Case of Trump Thomas J
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The Effectiveness of Influence Activities in Information Warfare
The Effectiveness of Influence Activities in Information Warfare Cassandra Lee Brooker A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Research School of Business May 2020 Thesis/Dissertation Sheet Surname : BROOKER Given Name/s : CASSANDRA LEE Abbreviation for degree : MRes Faculty : UNSW Canberra School : School of Business Thesis Title : The Effectiveness of Influence Activities in Information Warfare Abstract Rapid, globalised power shifts, technological advances, and increasingly interconnected, ungoverned communications networks have resulted in the rise of asymmetric grey zone threats. The lines are now blurred between political, civil, and military information environments. The rise of influence activities is the new ‘sharp power’ in information warfare (the iWar). Western democracies are already at war in the information domain and are being out-communicated by their adversaries. Building on the commentary surrounding this contemporary threat, and based on a review of the literature across three academic disciplines of: Systems Thinking, Influence, and Cognitive Theory; this study aimed to investigate solutions for improving Australia’s influence effectiveness in the iWar. This study asked how systems thinking can offer an effective approach to holistically understanding complex social systems in the iWar; as well as asking why understanding both successful influencing strategies and psychological cognitive theories is central to analysing those system behaviours. To answer the aim, a systems thinking methodology was employed to compare two contrasting case studies to determine their respective influencing effectiveness. The successful case system comprising the terrorist group ISIS was compared and contrasted with the unsuccessful case system of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 election campaign – using a single stock of influence to determine relevant reinforcing and balancing feedback. -
Chapter 4 the Right-Wing Media Enablers of Anti-Islam Propaganda
Chapter 4 The right-wing media enablers of anti-Islam propaganda Spreading anti-Muslim hate in America depends on a well-developed right-wing media echo chamber to amplify a few marginal voices. The think tank misinforma- tion experts and grassroots and religious-right organizations profiled in this report boast a symbiotic relationship with a loosely aligned, ideologically-akin group of right-wing blogs, magazines, radio stations, newspapers, and television news shows to spread their anti-Islam messages and myths. The media outlets, in turn, give members of this network the exposure needed to amplify their message, reach larger audiences, drive fundraising numbers, and grow their membership base. Some well-established conservative media outlets are a key part of this echo cham- ber, mixing coverage of alarmist threats posed by the mere existence of Muslims in America with other news stories. Chief among the media partners are the Fox News empire,1 the influential conservative magazine National Review and its website,2 a host of right-wing radio hosts, The Washington Times newspaper and website,3 and the Christian Broadcasting Network and website.4 They tout Frank Gaffney, David Yerushalmi, Daniel Pipes, Robert Spencer, Steven Emerson, and others as experts, and invite supposedly moderate Muslim and Arabs to endorse bigoted views. In so doing, these media organizations amplify harm- ful, anti-Muslim views to wide audiences. (See box on page 86) In this chapter we profile some of the right-wing media enablers, beginning with the websites, then hate radio, then the television outlets. The websites A network of right-wing websites and blogs are frequently the primary movers of anti-Muslim messages and myths. -
The Availability Heuristic
CHAPTER 11 THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC According to Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman (1974, p. 1127), the availability heuristic is a rule of thumb in which decision makers "assess the frequency of a class or the probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind." Usually this heuristic works quite well; all things being equal, common events are easier to remember or imagine than are uncommon events. By rely ing on availability to estimate frequency and probability, decision mak ers are able to simplify what might otherwise be very difficult judg ments. As with any heuristic, however, there are cases in which the general rule of thumb breaks down and leads to systematic biases. Some events are more available than others not because they tend to occur frequently or with high probability, but because they are inherently easier to think about, because they have taken place recently, because they are highly emotional, and so forth. This chapter examines three general questions: (1) What are instances in which the availability heuristic leads to biased judgments? (2) Do decision makers perceive an event as more likely after they have imagined it happening? (3) How is vivid information dif ferent from other information? AVAILABILITY GOES AWRY Which is a more likely cause of death in the United States-being killed by falling airplane parts or by a shark? Most people rate shark attacks as more probable than death from falling airplane parts (see Item #7 of the Reader Survey for your answer). Shark attacks certainly receive more publicity than do deaths from falling airplane parts, and they are far easier to imagine (thanks in part to movies such as Jaws). -
Filed: New York County Clerk 09/24/2020 10:26 Am Index No
FILED: NEW YORK COUNTY CLERK 09/24/2020 10:26 AM INDEX NO. 654698/2020 NYSCEF DOC. NO. 2 RECEIVED NYSCEF: 09/24/2020 SUPREME COURT OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK COUNTY OF NEW YORK MARY L. TRUMP, Plaintiff, v. Index No. _____________ DONALD J. TRUMP, in his personal capacity, MARYANNE TRUMP BARRY, and JOHN or JANE DOE, the executor of the ESTATE OF ROBERT S. COMPLAINT TRUMP, in his or her capacity as executor, Defendants. Plaintiff Mary L. Trump (“Mary”), by and through her attorneys, alleges as follows: INTRODUCTION 1. For Donald J. Trump, his sister Maryanne, and their late brother Robert, fraud was not just the family business—it was a way of life. Beginning in the 1980s, these siblings took control of the New York City real estate empire that their father Fred Sr. had built, and exploited it to enrich themselves at the expense of everyone around them. They concocted scheme after scheme to cheat on their taxes, swindle their business partners, and jack up rents on their low- income tenants. 2. This case is brought by a victim closer to home—their niece Mary. Mary’s father, and their brother, Fred Trump Jr., died in 1981 when Mary was just sixteen years old. Upon his death, Mary inherited valuable minority interests in the family business. Donald, Maryanne, and Robert committed to watch over her interests as fiduciaries. They lied. Rather than protect Mary’s interests, they designed and carried out a complex scheme to siphon funds away from her interests, conceal their grift, and deceive her about the true value of what she had inherited. -
THE EFFECTS of FACT-CHECKING THREAT Results from a Field Experiment in the States
NEW AMERICA FOUNDATION Research Paper THE EFFECTS OF FACT-CHECKING THREAT Results from a field experiment in the states Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler* October 2013 Executive summary Politicians in the United States are coming under increasing scrutiny from fact-checkers like PolitiFact, Factcheck.org, and the Washington Post Fact Checker, who examine the accuracy of public statements that are often reported without challenge by traditional news organizations. However, we know little about the effects of this practice, especially on public officials. One possibility is that fact-checking might help to deter the dissemination of misinformation, especially for candidates and legislators at lower levels of government who receive relatively little scrutiny and are sensitive to potential threats to re-election. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a field experiment during the 2012 campaign evaluating the effects of reminding state legislators about the electoral and reputational threat posed by fact-checking. Our experimental sample consisted of nearly 1200 legislators in nine states with state PolitiFact affiliates. We found that legislators who were sent reminders that they are vulnerable to fact-checking were less likely to receive a negative PolitiFact rating or have the accuracy of their statements questioned publicly than legislators who were not sent reminders. These results suggest that the electoral and reputational threat posed by fact-checking can affect the behavior of elected officials. In this way, fact-checking could play an important role in improving political discourse and strengthening democratic accountability. * Brendan Nyhan ([email protected]) is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. -
Donald Trump and the Spectacle of the Modern American Presidency
Bard College Bard Digital Commons Senior Projects Spring 2018 Bard Undergraduate Senior Projects Spring 2018 Donald Trump and the Spectacle of the Modern American Presidency Medora McDougall Jones Bard College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.bard.edu/senproj_s2018 Part of the Other French and Francophone Language and Literature Commons, and the Political Theory Commons This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 4.0 License. Recommended Citation Jones, Medora McDougall, "Donald Trump and the Spectacle of the Modern American Presidency" (2018). Senior Projects Spring 2018. 195. https://digitalcommons.bard.edu/senproj_s2018/195 This Open Access work is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been provided to you by Bard College's Stevenson Library with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this work in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights- holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/or on the work itself. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Donald Trump and the Spectacle of the Modern American Presidency Senior Project Submitted to The Division of Social Studies and The Division of Languages and Literature of Bard College by Medora Jones Annandale-on-Hudson, New York May 2018 Acknowledgements I would like to thank my advisor Bill Dixon for his endless support and guidance. This project would not have been possible without his marvelous course on the American Presidency and his mentorship throughout my time at Bard. -
How White Supremacy Returned to Mainstream Politics
GETTY CORUM IMAGES/SAMUEL How White Supremacy Returned to Mainstream Politics By Simon Clark July 2020 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG How White Supremacy Returned to Mainstream Politics By Simon Clark July 2020 Contents 1 Introduction and summary 4 Tracing the origins of white supremacist ideas 13 How did this start, and how can it end? 16 Conclusion 17 About the author and acknowledgments 18 Endnotes Introduction and summary The United States is living through a moment of profound and positive change in attitudes toward race, with a large majority of citizens1 coming to grips with the deeply embedded historical legacy of racist structures and ideas. The recent protests and public reaction to George Floyd’s murder are a testament to many individu- als’ deep commitment to renewing the founding ideals of the republic. But there is another, more dangerous, side to this debate—one that seeks to rehabilitate toxic political notions of racial superiority, stokes fear of immigrants and minorities to inflame grievances for political ends, and attempts to build a notion of an embat- tled white majority which has to defend its power by any means necessary. These notions, once the preserve of fringe white nationalist groups, have increasingly infiltrated the mainstream of American political and cultural discussion, with poi- sonous results. For a starting point, one must look no further than President Donald Trump’s senior adviser for policy and chief speechwriter, Stephen Miller. In December 2019, the Southern Poverty Law Center’s Hatewatch published a cache of more than 900 emails2 Miller wrote to his contacts at Breitbart News before the 2016 presidential election. -
Can You Spot COVID-19 Misinformation?
Can You Spot COVID-19 Misinformation? We’re all seeking the latest information on the COVID-19 pandemic and what might be coming next. But how can we spot and avoid the false information that is also circulating, especially on social media? Here are some things to look out for. Have you received a message from your friend Did you see a statement being shared on social that says her aunt/teacher/colleague knows networks that looks like it has come from the someone who works in the ER and has the government or a health authority? following information? If so: Be cautious. If so: Be a detective. Lots of copy and paste It may be ‘imposter rumors are spread content’, which is this way. when it’s not. Action: try pasting the Action: social networks. If you website of the organization see lots of examples, it quoted and check whether has likely travelled a long the information on their way before it got to you. site is a match. Maybe someone sent you a list of top tips to Did you see that very dramatic video on social media avoid the virus, like eating certain foods or using showing the latest updates relating to COVID-19? home remedies? If so: Be skeptical. If so: Look closer. There’s no food or Sometimes videos and supplement that can stop pictures being shared on you getting this virus, social media aren’t quite and there’s currently no what they seem. treatment - you can only try to manage the symptoms. Action: try reverse image searching pictures ? Action: consult the latest to see if they have been guidelines from the World used before. -
Nudge Theory
Nudge Theory http://www.businessballs.com/nudge-theory.htm Nudge theory is a flexible and modern concept for: • understanding of how people think, make decisions, and behave, • helping people improve their thinking and decisions, • managing change of all sorts, and • identifying and modifying existing unhelpful influences on people. Nudge theory was named and popularized by the 2008 book, 'Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness', written by American academics Richard H Thaler and Cass R Sunstein. The book is based strongly on the Nobel prize- winning work of the Israeli-American psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. This article: • reviews and explains Thaler and Sunstein's 'Nudge' concept, especially 'heuristics' (tendencies for humans to think and decide instinctively and often mistakenly) • relates 'Nudge' methods to other theories and models, and to Kahneman and Tversky's work • defines and describes additional methods of 'nudging' people and groups • extends the appreciation and application of 'Nudge' methodology to broader change- management, motivation, leadership, coaching, counselling, parenting, etc • offers 'Nudge' methods and related concepts as a 'Nudge' theory 'toolkit' so that the concept can be taught and applied in a wide range of situations involving relationships with people, and enabling people to improve their thinking and decision- making • and offers a glossary of Nudge theory and related terms 'Nudge' theory was proposed originally in US 'behavioral economics', but it can be adapted and applied much more widely for enabling and encouraging change in people, groups, or yourself. Nudge theory can also be used to explore, understand, and explain existing influences on how people behave, especially influences which are unhelpful, with a view to removing or altering them. -
Cults of Personality, Preference Falsification, and the Dictator's
Cults of personality, preference falsification, and the dictator's dilemma Charles Crabtreex, Holger L. Kerny, and David A. Siegelz Abstract: We provide a novel rational explanation for why cults of personality exist: they solve the dictator's adverse selection problem in assigning subordinates to roles within the regime. Participation in a cult of personality is psychologically costly whenever it involves preference falsification, with the costs varying across individuals. Importantly, low psychological costs of preference falsification are correlated with traits the dictator values, such as unscrupulousness and ruthlessness, which we collectively term disposition-based competence. Under a wide variety of circumstances, this correlation makes participation in cults of personality informative from the dictator's point of view, allowing him to hire loyal and competent subordinates for the most important regime positions. In contrast to earlier formal work, our model implies that dictators can use cults of personality to avoid the loyalty-competence trade-off when promoting subordinates. We thank Quintin Beazer, Jens Grosser, Timur Kuran, Andrew Little, Eddy Malesky, Melanie Manion, Arturas Rozenas, Rory Truex, Nils Weidmann, and participants at the 2017 MPSA Conference and the 2017 ESTA workshop at Konstanz University for their very helpful feedback. x PhD cand., Department of Political Science, University of Michigan. y Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Florida State University. z Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Duke University. In 2001, Saparmurad Niyazov, who ruled Turkmenistan from 1985 to 2006, announced the publication of his first book. Called Ruhnama (The Book of the Soul), it contained answers to \all of life's questions" and became required reading in all schools, universities, and workplaces. -
1 in the United States District Court for the District
6:10-cv-01884-JMC Date Filed 07/20/10 Entry Number 1 Page 1 of 23 IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF SOUTH CAROLINA GREENVILLE DIVISION TIM CLARK, JOHANNA CLOUGHERTY, CIVIL ACTION MICHAEL CLOUGHERTY, on behalf of themselves and all others similarly situated, Plaintiffs, v. CLASS ACTION COMPLAINT GOLDLINE INTERNATIONAL, INC., Defendant. I. NATURE OF THE ACTION 1. Plaintiffs and proposed class representatives Tim Clark, Johanna Clougherty, and Michael Clougherty (“Plaintiffs”) bring this action individually and on behalf of all other persons similarly situated against Defendant Goldline International, Inc. (“Goldline”) to recover damages arising from Goldline’s violation of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (“RICO”), 18 U.S.C. § 1961, et seq., unfair and deceptive trade practices, and unjust enrichment. 2. This action is brought as a class action pursuant to Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 23 on behalf of a Class, described more fully below, which includes all persons or entities domiciled or residing in any of the fifty states of the United States of America or in the District of Columbia who purchased at least one product from Goldline since July 20, 2006. 3. Goldline is a precious metal dealer that buys and sells numismatic coins and bullion to investors and collectors all across the nation via telemarketing and telephone sales. Goldline is an established business that has gained national prominence in recent years through its association with conservative talk show hosts it sponsors and paid celebrity spokespeople who 1 6:10-cv-01884-JMC Date Filed 07/20/10 Entry Number 1 Page 2 of 23 have agreed to promote Goldline products by playing off the fear of inflation to encourage people to purchase gold and other precious metals as an investment that will protect them from an out of control government. -
Barack Obama Deletes References to Clinton
Barack Obama Deletes References To Clinton Newton humanize his bo-peep exploiter first-rate or surpassing after Mauricio comprises and falls tawdrily, soldierlike and extenuatory. Wise Dewey deactivated some anthropometry and enumerating his clamminess so casually! Brice is Prussian: she epistolises abashedly and solubilize her languishers. Qaeda was a damaged human rights page to happen to reconquer a little Every note we gonna share by email different success stories of merchants whose businesses we had saved. On clinton deleted references, obama told us democratic nomination of. Ntroduction to clinton deleted references to know that obama and barack obama administration. Rainfall carries into clinton deleted references to the. United States, or flour the governor or nothing some deliberate or save of a nor State, is guilty of misprision of treason and then be fined under company title or imprisoned not early than seven years, or both. Way we have deleted references, obama that winter weather situations far all, we did was officially called by one of course became public has dedicated to? Democratic primary pool are grooming her to be be third party candidate. As since been reported on multiple occasions, any released emails deemed classified by the administration have been done so after the fact, would not steer the convict they were transmitted. New Zealand as Muslim. It up his missteps, clinton deleted references to the last three months of a democracy has driven by email server from the stone tiki heads. Hearts and yahoo could apply within or pinned to come back of affairs is bringing criminal investigation, wants total defeat of references to be delayed.