Is Natura 2000 Large Enough?

Is Natura 2000 large enough? Evaluating and improving the European Union’s nature protection network towards current and potential post-2020 biodiversity representation targets Anke Müller Centre for Earth System Research and Sustainability Universität Hamburg, Germany [email protected] Recommendation to policy makers Implement systematic conservation planning concepts and further expand the Natura 2000 network to ensure adequate ecological representation. 1 @SimplyAnke Systematic conservation planning Central Goals Margules & Sarkar, 2007, Cambridge University Press 1) adequate representation of all components of biodiversity 2) ensuring the persistence of biodiversity into the future 3) achieving these ends with as much economy of resources as possible 2 @SimplyAnke What has worked and didn’t work in the current EU strategy? • Target 1, Action 1a: “Member States […] will ensure that the phase to establish Natura 2000, […], is largely complete by 2012.” • Mid-term review (2015): “[…], the establishment of Natura 2000 on land is largely complete” Terrestrial coverage is 18% but is this enough? 3 @SimplyAnke Mean target achievement towards 10%* representation of each ecoregion 96% MTA protected in amount % protected 10 Müller et al., 2018, Biological Conservation Dinerstein et al., 2017, Bioscience * Target from the technical rationale to Aichi target 11 for ecologically representative protected 4 area networks @SimplyAnke Mean target achievement towards 10%* representation of each ecoregion additional conservation ecoregion area needed (in km²) English Lowlands beech forests 3,059 Celtic broadleaf forests 5,613 Po Basin mixed forests96% MTA 1,073 East European forest steppe 488 Sarmatic mixed forests 2,839 European Atlantic mixed forests 2,114 protected in amount % protected Total 15,187 ~ 0.35% 10 of the EU Müller et al., 2018, Biological Conservation Dinerstein et al., 2017, Bioscience * Target from the technical rationale to Aichi target 11 for ecologically representative protected 5 area networks @SimplyAnke Cost-efficient expansion of the network to close existing gaps BE&BG IE NE RO DE IT FR LV selected km² EE UK roportion of additional conservation area % in area of additional roportion conservation p 6 Müller et al., 2018, Biological Conservation @SimplyAnke What new policy responses are needed? Scientists call for higher protection targets to stop biodiversity loss: 26-28% of terrestrial area Butchart et al., 2015, Conservation Letters 25-75% globally Noss & Cooperrider, 1994, Island Press 30% until 2030 and 50% until 2050 Baillie & Zhang, 2018, Science 100% of all remaining intact ecosystems Watson et al., 2018, Nature Half Earth Wilson, 2016, Liveright 50% of each ecoregion Dinerstein et al., 2017, Bioscience How much additional conservation area would be needed to implement 30% or even 50% ecoregion representation in the EU? 7 @SimplyAnke Mean target achievement towards 30/50% representation of each ecoregion 8 Müller et al., under review @SimplyAnke Mean target achievement towards 30/50% representation of each ecoregion 8 Müller et al., under review @SimplyAnke Mean target achievement towards 30/50% representation of each ecoregion 68% MTA 88% MTA 8 Müller et al., under review @SimplyAnke Mean target achievement towards 30/50% representation of each ecoregion 68% MTA 88% MTA 6.6% 8 Müller et al., under review @SimplyAnke Mean target achievement towards 30/50% representation of each ecoregion 68% MTA 24.2% 88% MTA 8 Müller et al., under review @SimplyAnke Mean target achievement towards 30/50% representation of each ecoregion 8 Müller et al., under review @SimplyAnke Conclusions Consider a further expansion of Natura 2000 – potential target could range between 30% and 50% ecoregion representation (no consensus in the scientific community, yet) Socio-economic analysis of the impacts the adoption of higher representation targets would have on the agriculture and forestry sectors needed 9 @SimplyAnke Methods Step 1: Evaluation Step 2: Systematic expansion Representation metrics Protection levels Conservation of habitat types costs Mean target achievement Ecoregion (MTA) for ecoregions Spatial prioritization model targets Protection equality* (PE) for habitat types or Allocation of additional protected ecosystems areas *Chauvenet et al., 2017,PLOS ONE Distribution of recommended additional conservation area Müller et al., under review The largest amount of additional conservation area could be provided by natural areas.

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