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Axel Desmedt, Member of the Council, BIPT

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Axel Desmedt, Member of the Council, BIPT Consumer broadband markets in an NGA context – the Belgian case Axel Desmedt Member of the Council BIPT WIK Conference Brussels, November 18, 2014 TélécomTelecom Media Radio Outline • Market context • Regulation in Belgium • Broadband • Broadcasting (cable) • Impact of regulation • Court decision of 12 November 2014 • Further thoughts TélécomTelecom Media Radio I. Market context in Belgium NGA deployment in Belgium Belgium has one of the largest coverages of NGA networks in EU: - 89% VDSL2 - 93% Eurodocsis 3.0 Source: Cullen, November 2014 TélécomTelecom Media Radio I. Market context in Belgium TélécomTelecom Media Radio I. Market context in Belgium: Key role of multiple play in retail market(s): Number of bundles sold Source: BIPT, 2014 MS per type of product Source: BIPT, 2014 Alternative broadband operators can’t compete effectively without television component TélécomTelecom Media Radio I. Market context in Belgium: broadband National network coverage for the incumbent Broadband market players: Belgacom (now Proximus, incumbent) 4 cable operators (each in their respective footprint) Several alternative operators (OLOs) that offer broadband internet Source: BIPT TélécomTelecom Media Radio I. Market context in Belgium: broadband 90 80 83 70 80 74 74 60 70 DSL Belgacom 50 58 40 Kabel 30 xDSL OLO 20 10 FWA Thousands 14 10 14 21 30 15 14 0 7 - 13 21 12 35 - - - -10 - -20 -30 -40 -50 S1 2011 S2 2011 S1 2012 S2 2012 S1 2013 S2 2013 Due to the lack of a TV offer, OLOs are losing market share with continued negative net adds since 2008. In the longer run, without adequate regulation, only two network operators would remain on the market (1 DSL operator with national footprint and 1 cable operator on its footprint). TélécomTelecom Media Radio I. Market context in Belgium: broadband . Declining use of (subloop) unbundling due to: . The introduction of VDSL vectoring . Closure of major LEX’s (Local Exchanges) VDSL <50 Mbps Docsis 3 Vectoring > 100 Mbps >50Mbps Sale of fixed broadband wholesale lines by Belgacom Source: BIPT, July 2014 TélécomTelecom Media Radio I. Market context: price evolution broadband Evolution nominal broadband prices Telenet Evolution nominal broadband prices Belgacom €70 €70 4 MB 10 MB 30 GB 30 GB 30 MB €60 €60 Unlim 120 MB Unlim €50 €50 4 MB 10 GB 5 MB 10 GB 30 MB €40 Unlim €40 60 MB 100 GB 0,5MB 0,5MB 0,4GB 0,3GB 30 MB 30 MB €30 €30 150 GB 100 GB €20 0,5MB €20 1 MB 0,4GB 0,4 GB 30 MB 30 MB 100GB 25 GB €10 €10 €- €- Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 BasicNet Comfort/Basic Express/ Fiber Turbo/XL BasicNet Comfort/Basic Express/ Fiber Turbo/XL Speeds and volumes have significantly increased, but prices of Belgacom and cable-operators have remained stable or even increased. Similarity of the range of offers and prices between Telenet and Belgacom. Belgacom offers only one speed. For an equal price, Telenet provides higher speeds TélécomTelecom Media Radio I. Market context: Divergent price evolutions mobile versus fix, but both below CPI 10 TélécomTelecom Media Radio I. Market context: Broadcast 4 cable operators each in their own coverage area: Telenet (Flanders and Brussels) Brutélé (Wallonia and Brussels) Tecteo (Wallonia) Numéricable (Brussels & Hainaut, ex AIESH) Three IPTV-operators: Belgacom TV, operating nationwide since 2005 BASE through the brand SNOW (based on a commercial multicast offer) Billi (based on unbundling offer), only in 19 communities. A few operators operating via satellite OTT content providers (e.g. Netflix, Stievie) TélécomTelecom Media Radio I. Market context: Broadcast Market shares of cable operators in their geographical markets are superior to 70% and remain high despite presence of Belgacom TV since 2005 Belgacom : market share has grown steadily over the past few years towards 10%-20%, depending on the coverage area TV Vlaanderen, Télésat (satelite) and Alpha Networks (IPTV offer via LLU) have a very low combined marketshare 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 Subscribers (millions) Subscribers 0,50 0,00 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 TélécomTelecom MediaIPTV Anlogue + DigitalRadio (cable) Analogue only I. Market context: entry & exit Market entry Market exit DSL DSL “With SNOW, KPN Group Belgium will enable consumers only to pay for what they really want and customers can personalize their package à la carte.” Market entry Cable “Mobistar sets cable rivals deadline to open networks” Reuters, January 2014 “Mobistar’s new television and broadband Internet services over the cable network are expected before the end of this year. These services will be among the first of this type in Europe to be based on regulated cable networks.” Mobistar corporate, September 2014 TélécomTelecom Media Radio II. Broadband Regulation The Belgian 2011 market analysis Broadband Broadcast BGC SMP BGC SMP Cable SMP on analogue & digital Market 4 Market 5 Bitstream incl. Resale Digital TV Resale LLU Multicast analogue transmission broadband TélécomTelecom Media Radio II. Broadband Regulation Broadband markets: approach in Belgium Retail Wholesale Product: The retailmarket includes broadband access services of all speeds (including ADSL, Definition VDSL; EuroDOCSIS 3) Geographical: national market Relevant Relevant upstream markets: M4 and M5 market (excluding cable) SMP The incumbent Belgacom is found having analysis SMP on both markets Access (incl. Price Remedies Transparency Bitstream control & Non-Discr. (cost and orientation) multicast) TélécomTelecom Media Radio II. Broadband Regulation Lack of indirect constraints: DSL vs Cable Cost share of wholesale price is below 50% => OLOs can absorb (part of) a wholesale price increase Critical loss analysis: Actual loss < Critical loss Price elasticity lower than in other European Countries OLOs subscribers could significantly migrate to Belgacom In a greenfield situation, Belgacom would not increase its internal wholesale price (no non-discrimination remedy in greenfield analysis) and thus its own retail price Belgacom would also attract part of the net adds coming from OLOs Easier to migrate from DSL to DSL than from DSL to cable (modem, internal cabling) In the past, Belgacom proposed wholesale prices’ increases and challenged cost oriented wholesale price reductions (no evidence of constraint having an effect on wholesale prices) TélécomTelecom Media Radio II. Broadband Regulation Transparency Non-discrimination Cost orientation / no price squeeze Access: Belgacom ethernet-network sub-divided into 5 zones with 2 Local loop unbundling interconnection points in each zone connected to the local Imposition of Multicast (or equivalent) LEX’s (Source: Belgacom) Market 4/5 – VULA / Bitstream VULA & Bitstream are both enhanced active remedies Belgian Bitstream has two interconnection points: Local at parent Ethernet node (MDF level) Regional at distant Ethernet node (5 main cities) Local Bitstream is equivalent to VULA TélécomTelecom Media Radio III. Broadcasting (cable) regulation Broadcasting markets: approach in Belgium Retail Wholesale Product: The retailmarket for the delivery of TV signals Definition Geographical: corresponding to the operator’s footprint Relevant market for ex ante regulation Relevant market 3 criteria test SMP SMP of the main cable operators analysis Resale of Digital TV Remedies Resale of analogue transmissio broadband TV n TélécomTelecom Media Radio III. Broadcasting (cable) regulation Relationship with the Commission recommendation (2007) Broadcasting market was (and is) not listed in the Recommendation on relevant markets: 3 criteria test High non-transitory barriers to entry Network and economies of scale/scope (including analogue functionality) not easy to duplicate for new entrants No tendency to effective competition High market shares (above 70%) Stable or increasing prices Impact of bundles Efficiency of competition law Refusal of access (and other remedies) are difficult to tackle with competition law alone Long delays and unpredictability of competition cases TélécomTelecom Media Radio III. Broadcasting (cable) regulation Cable: Geographical segmentation on the base of cable operator’s coverage zones as opposed to Broadband where the market is national: Lack of demand– and supply substituability between cable networks (located in different geographical zones). No chain substituability demonstrated: Cable operator A Cable operator B => When Belgacom decreases its price with 10% the cable operator will follow. Chain substitution => But Belgacom won’t decreases its price ✗ ✔ when one cable operator decreases the price with 10%, because the revenue loss due to price decrease will be larger than the revenue Belgacom loss due to customer churn. Heterogenous competition circumstances between different cable coverage areas : differences in prices, offers (see backup slides) and marketing approaches, market shares and the technical state of cable networks. Regulatory differences (e.g. must carry) TélécomTelecom Media Radio III. Broadcasting (cable) regulation 3 types of access remedies are imposed on all SMP operators: Access to an analogue TV resale offer Access to digital TV platform Access to a resale of the Broadband offer Pricing: retail minus (Wholesale price = (retail price VATincl – VAT – content cost) x (1 – Minus%)) and upfront fee Remedies are imposed in the respective areas of territorial jurisdiction by each media regulator Special treatment of Belgacom
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