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A Comparison of Palestinian and South African Resistance Wright State University CORE Scholar Browse all Theses and Dissertations Theses and Dissertations 2015 Understanding Paths Toward Strategic Success in NVR Campaigns: A Comparison of Palestinian and South African Resistance Archibald A. Grieve Wright State University Follow this and additional works at: https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/etd_all Part of the International Relations Commons Repository Citation Grieve, Archibald A., "Understanding Paths Toward Strategic Success in NVR Campaigns: A Comparison of Palestinian and South African Resistance" (2015). Browse all Theses and Dissertations. 1434. https://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/etd_all/1434 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses and Dissertations at CORE Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Browse all Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of CORE Scholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. UNDERSTANDING PATHS TOWARDS STRATEGIC SUCCESS IN NVR CAMPAIGNS: A COMPARISON OF PALESTINIAN AND SOUTH AFRICAN RESISTANCE A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts By ARCH GRIEVE B.A. Social Science Education, Wright State University, 2008 2015 Wright State University WRIGHT STATE UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL JULY 24, 2015 I HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER MY SUPERVISION BY Arch Grieve ENTITLED Understanding Paths Towards Strategic Success in NVR Campaigns: A Comparison of Palestinian and South African Resistance BE ACCEPTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Master of Arts. ________________________ Vaughn Shannon, Ph.D. Thesis Director ________________________ Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D. Director, Master of Arts Program in International and Comparative Politics Committee on Final Examination: ___________________________________ Vaughn Shannon, Ph.D. Department of Political Science ___________________________________ Liam Anderson, Ph.D. Department of Political Science ___________________________________ Pramod Kantha, Ph.D. Department of Political Science ______________________________ Robert E. W. Fyffe, Ph.D. Vice President for Research and Dean of the Graduate School iii ABSTRACT Grieve, Archibald Alan. M.A., Department of Political Science, Wright State University, 2015. Understanding Paths Toward Strategic Success in NVR Campaigns: A Comparison of Palestinian and South African Resistance. The following paper fills a gap in the literature of nonviolent resistance (NVR) by investigating when and under what circumstances it is necessary for nonviolent resistance campaigns to enlist the support of outside actors in order to achieve strategic success. Using Gene Sharp’s pillars of power theory as a comparative framework, the author pairs the method of process-tracing with a most-similar-systems design in order to fashion a time-series experiment measuring the strength of each pillar of power propping up the target regimes of South Africa and Israel. The results reveal that these variables are interacting. The paper also reveals that the U.S. played a key role in both conflicts due to the extent to which it helped prop up both regimes during the period of study and makes recommendations to help improve the chances for success of Palestinian nonviolence and other NVR campaigns. iv Table of Contents I - INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................................1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................1 Literature review ......................................................................................................................2 The puzzle ..................................................................................................................................5 II – RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY ..............................................................10 Case selection ................................................................................................................................10 Conceptualization and operationalization of non-violent resistance ............................................11 Independent variables ....................................................................................................................13 Dependent variables ....................................................................................................................25 Hypotheses ................................................................................................................................27 Control variables ....................................................................................................................29 Methodology ................................................................................................................................34 Goals of the study ....................................................................................................................38 III – SOUTH AFRICAN RESISTANCE CAMPAIGN RESULTS ........................................40 IV – PALESTINIAN RESISTANCE CAMPAIGN RESULTS ..............................................90 V - CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................123 Summary of findings ..................................................................................................................123 Policy implications ..................................................................................................................133 Future research needed ......................................................................................................137 BIBLIOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................................140 v List of Figures Figure Page 1. List of independent and dependent variables and values. ..........................................................27 2. Levels of internal and external support for South Africa’s pillar of authority.. .........................42 3. Levels of internal and external support for South Africa’s pillars of human resources/skills and knowledge... ...................................................................................................................................52 4. Days not worked due to labor stoppages, 1969-1992.... ............................................................56 5. Levels of internal and external support for South Africa’s pillar of cohesion ...........................58 6. Levels of internal and external support for South Africa’s pillar of materials support .............70 7. Levels of internal and external support for South Africa’s pillar of coercion ...........................77 8. Merged internal and external pillars of support for the apartheid regime from 1961 to 1991... 85 9. South African internal/external pillars of power in 1991 ...........................................................86 10. Levels of internal and external support for Israeli pillar of authority... ...................................91 11. Levels of internal and external support for Israeli pillars of human resources/skills and knowledge .....................................................................................................................................98 12. Levels of internal and external support for Israel’s pillar of cohesion/collective purpose ...102 13. Levels of internal and external support for the pillar of material support ............................110 14. Comparison of the GDP per capitas of the Israeli and Palestinian economies .....................113 15. Levels of internal and external support for the Israeli pillar of coercion ..............................115 16. Merged internal/external pillars of support for the Israeli government from 1961 to 1991. .120 17. Israeli internal/external pillars of power in 1991 ...................................................................121 18. Merged internal and external pillars of power comparison of Israeli and South African target regimes in 1991 ............................................................................................................................124 19. AAM’s strategic path to success against the apartheid regime .............................................126 20. Palestinian NVR Campaign’s strategic path to partial success against Israel ......................128 21. Key differences between AAM and Palestinian NVR campaign .........................................128 vi List of Tables Table Page 1. Operationalization and coding of independent variables ...........................................................24 2. Table depicting the investment patterns of institutional investors ............................................64 1 Chapter I: Introduction The history of nonviolent resistance (NVR) is a long and rich tradition that crosses cultural, religious, and ethnic boundaries and has been used successfully throughout history to achieve political objectives. Massive NVR campaigns like the Indian independence movement against Great Britain and the civil rights movement in America demonstrate the fantastic opportunities for success that NVR is capable of achieving, while events like Tiananmen Square serve as reminders that it is not always successful. Conceptually, nonviolence has
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