Rosen Leads Tarkanian by 6 Points in Nevada's 3Rd

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TO: Interested Parties FROM: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department DATE: June 28, 2016 ROSEN LEADS TARKANIAN BY 6 POINTS IN NEVADA’S 3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ROSEN LEADS BY 6 Democrat Jacky Rosen leads Republican Danny Tarkanian by 50% 6 points (40% to 34%, with 26% undecided) in a DCCC survey 40% of likely general election voters conducted in Nevada’s third 30% district on June 18-19, 2016. 20% Tarkanian performs worse than Michael Roberson, who 10% trailed a hypothetical general election matchup to Rosen by 0% one point in a March 2016 DCCC poll. Rosen Tarkanian HILLARY CLINTON HAS AN 8-POINT LEAD OVER DONALD TRUMP In the presidential contest, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 8 points (43% to 35%). ROSEN WINS HISPANICS/LATINOS AND INDEPENDENTS, CONSOLIDATES DEMOCRATS Rosen leads with registered independents by 5 points (32% to 27%) and Hispanic/Latino voters by 37 points (58% to 21%). Rosen also consolidates 74% of registered Democrats, up from 61% against Michael Roberson in the March 2016 poll. TARKANIAN HAS A NET NEGATIVE PROFILE IN THE DISTRICT Voters in the district hold an unfavorable view of Tarkanian (-13 net, 22% fav to 35% unfav) and his extreme conservative profile. Tarkanian’s ties to Trump are also a liability in this district, as 59% of voters have an unfavorable view of Trump. A mainly suburban (47.0%) district, Nevada’s third congressional district runs along the southern tip of the state and includes portions of Las Vegas and Henderson. The Citizen Voting Age Population is 12.5% Asian American/Pacific Islander, 11.8% Hispanic/Latino, and 6.9% African American. These results are based on a survey of 341 likely 2016 general election voters in NV-03 conducted by the DCCC on June 18-19, 2016. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone via either a live or an IVR (robo) survey. The margin of error is +/- 5.3%. .

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