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Golden Star Resources September 8, 2016 | 14:59 ET | 14:59 ET~ Golden Star Resources GSC-TSX Rating Price: Sep-7 Target Total Rtn Materials - Metals & Mining GSS-AMEX Market Perform $1.00 $1.25 25% Andrew Breichmanas, P.Eng. Analyst [email protected] +44 (0)20 7246 5430 Sanam Nourbakhsh* Contactor Selected for Prestea Underground [email protected] +44 (0)20 7664 8091 Legal Entity: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. *BMO Capital Markets Limited Bottom Line: Golden Star continues to advance its strategy of transitioning into 2YR Price Volume Chart a high grade, low cost, non-refractory gold producer through appointment of an 1.6 underground mining contractor for its Prestea underground project in Ghana. After 1.4 recently strengthening its balance sheet, the focus is now on delivery of the Wassa and 1.2 1.0 Prestea underground projects. 0.8 4 0.6 3 Key Points 0.4 2 0.2 1 0 0 Golden Star selected a contractor for the Prestea underground with a specialization Mar Sep Mar Sep in Alimak stoping. The project feasibility study was based on conventional shrinkage LHS: Price ($) / RHS: Volume (mm) Source: FactSet mining, but Alimak has been selected as the preferred method due to its safety and Company Data in C$ efficiency benefits. The contractor also brings expertise working in Ghana and with Dividend $0.00 Cash (mm) $19 other gold producers on multiple continents. Development is expected to commence in Q4/16, keeping the company's timeline for commercial production in mid-2017 intact. Yield 0.0% Shares O/S (mm) 328.7 NAV $1.60 Market Cap (mm) $329 The Prestea mine, located 16km south of the company's Bogoso processing plant, BMO Estimates in $ has produced in excess of 9.0Moz over the past century. A new mineral resource was (FY-Dec.) 2015A 2016E 2017E defined in the West Reef, a steeply dipping, narrow vein deposit host to high-grade, free milling gold. The company completed a feasibility study in late-2015 based on a EPS $(0.11) $0.07 $0.19 mineral reserve of 1.04Mt at a diluted mined grade of 14.0g/t for 469,000oz. CFPS $(0.06) $0.07 $0.23 Production (oz) 222,416 207,178 263,700 The feasibility study considers rehabilitating existing mine infrastructure and building a processing plant, for initial capital of $63M, to produce 90,000ozpa at all-in sustaining TCC ($/oz) 1,035 889 773 costs of $615/oz over a four and a half year mine life. The project is expected to yield AISC ($/oz) $1,155 $1,019 $886 an NPV5% of $134M and an IRR of 54% at an $1,150/oz gold price. Consensus Estimates (FY-Dec.) 2015A 2016E 2017E The company recently strengthened its balance sheet, raising $99.5M from the sale of common shares and convertible senior notes due in 2021. A portion of the notes issued EPS $0.04 $0.20 were exchanged for $42.0M of debentures due in 2017. The remaining cash proceeds Valuation were used to repay its medium term loan facility, repurchase additional debentures, (FY-Dec.) 2015A 2016E 2017E and for general corporate purposes. P/E NM 11.2x 4.0x We view selection of the contractor as an important step for development of Prestea, P/CFPS NM 11.8x 3.5x as achieving budgeted mining costs of $105/t, design production rates, and limiting dilution appear to be critical elements towards realizing targeted economics. Key Changes Rating Target Estimates 2016E 2017E Our Thesis Mkt $1.25 EPS $0.07 $0.19 Golden Star is rated Market Perform. The company Previous $0.07 has strengthened its balance sheet while efforts to reposition the business have already resulted in better This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. performance while transformational underground For disclosure statements, including the Analyst Certification, please refer to page(s) 6 to 8. projects advance to deliver further improvements. Golden Star Resources - Block Summary Model Income Statement 2015A 2016E 2017E Operating Costs 216,440 170,271 188,191 G&A 12,276 12,127 13,341 Valuation Depreciation 37,339 20,122 22,688 Golden Star shares trade at 0.6x our NPV5% and 3.5x our EBITDA 10,256 68,236 138,839 2017 CFPS estimates versus medium producer peers at 1.8x and 9.6x respectively. Our C$1.25 target price is based on a Tax 0 5,950 9,344 weighted blend of 0.75x NPV5% and 5.0x 2017 CFPS. Adjusted Net Earnings (28,936) 20,212 63,600 Upside Scenario $2.75 EPS $(0.11) $0.07 $0.19 Our upside scenario is based on a weighted blend of 1.5x Cash Flow Statement 2015A 2016E 2017E NPV5% and 10.0x 2017 CFPS, derived from average multiples CFO (14,852) 19,319 74,049 for producer peers. CFI (56,499) (84,977) (22,500) Downside Scenario $0.95 CFF 67,107 84,669 (35,515) Our downside scenario is based on 0.5x NPV5% reflecting Free Cash Flow (71,903) (59,602) 51,549 development risks associated with its two underground FCF/Share $(0.28) $(0.20) $0.16 projects. Balance Sheet 2015A 2016E 2017E Cash & Equivalents 35,108 54,118 70,152 Long-Term Debt 91,899 103,378 96,910 -5% +25% +175% Total Assets 238,982 322,671 336,622 Total Liabilities 370,216 413,600 351,747 Downside Current Target Upside Scenario Price Price Scenario Total Shareholders' Equity (131,234) (90,929) (15,124) $0.95 $1.00 $1.25 $2.75 Production & Cash Costs 2015A 2016E 2017E Gold Production (oz) 222,416 207,178 263,700 Company Description Gold Sales (oz) 221,653 206,173 263,700 Golden Star is an intermediate gold producer with a Total Cash Costs ($/oz) 1,035 889 773 portfolio of operating mines and development projects in Ghana. All-In Sustaining Costs ($/oz) $1,155 $1,019 $886 Realized Gold Price ($/oz) 1,151 1,221 1,250 Commodity Price Assumptions 2015A 2016E 2017E Gold Price ($/oz) 1,160 1,292 1,350 Silver Price ($/oz) 15.71 17.78 20.88 Copper Price ($/lb) 2.50 2.12 2.10 Source: BMO Capital Markets, Company Reports GSC-TSX Industry Company Research Research Models Golden Star Resources | Page 2 September 8, 2016 Exhibit 1: Golden Star Resources Forecast Summary, BMO Research Commodity Prices C$6.00 3.0x 1.00 100% C$5.00 2.5x 0.80 80% C$4.00 2.0x 10% 0.60 60% C$3.00 1.5x 0.40 40% Share Price C$2.00 1.0x Spot P/NPV Metal Revenue (US$B) 0.20 20% C$1.00 0.5x Gold in RevenueMix (%) C$0.00 0.0x 0.00 0% 2008 2016 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2021 2022 Share Price Spot P/NPV Gold Revenue % Gold 0.70 2,000 2,000 0.60 1,750 1,750 0.50 1,500 1,500 0.40 1,250 1,250 0.30 1,000 1,000 0.20 750 750 Gold Production(Moz) Gold Price (US$/oz) 0.10 ProductCosts (US$/oz) 500 500 - 0.00 By 250 250 0 0 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Bogoso Refractory Bogoso Non-Refractory Wassa Open Pit 2011 Wassa Underground Prestea Underground Cash Cost G&A Exploration Sustaining Growth Interest Tax 0.25 0.50 0.20 0.40 11% 24% 0.15 0.30 0.10 0.20 7% 0.05 0.10 Cumulative Capital (US$B) Capital Expenditures(US$B) 58% 0.00 0.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Capex Cumulative Capex BMO Research @ NPV5% 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 Net Cash (US$B) -0.10 -0.10 Cash/(Debt) (US$B) -0.10 -0.10 Free Cash Flow (US$B) -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 Cash Flow from Operations (US$B) -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 -0.20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CF from Ops FCF after Sustaining FCF after Growth Cash Debt Net Cash Source: BMO Capital Markets Golden Star Resources | Page 3 September 8, 2016 Exhibit 2: Golden Star Resources Operational Summary, BMO Research Commodity Prices Golden Star Resources WASSA OPEN PIT, Ghana Q1/16A Q2/16A Q3/16E Q4/16E Q1/17E Q2/17E Q3/17E Q4/17E 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Ore Mined (kt) 609.5 651.0 608.1 558.1 496.0 501.5 482.0 482.0 2,053.3 2,656.1 2,848.2 2,426.8 1,961.6 1,834.6 Waste Mined (kt) 2,406.2 2,406.2 2,432.6 2,232.6 1,984.0 2,006.1 1,928.1 1,928.1 13,258.8 12,398.6 10,632.5 9,477.6 7,846.4 7,338.3 Ore Processed (kt) 640.9 573.8 630.5 580.5 515.8 523.2 505.5 505.5 2,695.3 2,629.0 2,495.2 2,425.8 2,050.0 1,922.9 Grade (g/t) 1.64 1.16 1.40 1.40 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 2.29 1.41 1.46 1.41 1.38 1.38 Recovery (%) 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 94% 92% 94% 94% 94% Production (koz) 31.3 21.5 26.7 24.6 21.6 21.9 21.1 21.1 185.8 112.8 108.3 104.1 85.7 80.2 Sales (koz) 30.9 21.1 26.7 24.6 21.6 21.9 21.1 21.1 185.8 112.8 107.8 103.3 85.7 80.2 Operating Cash Cost (US$/oz) 706 975 832 832 842 842 846 846 805 971 838 823 844 846 Total Cash Cost (US$/oz) 766 1,039 899 901 912 909 912 913 876 1,034 896 888 911 909 All-In Sustaining Cost (US$/oz) 793 1,139 956 962 981 977 983 984 955 1,075 956 946 981 1,096 All-in Cost (US$/oz) 842 1,277 1,049 1,063 981 977 983 984 1,057 1,180 1,024 1,037 981 1,096 Capital Expenditures (US$M) 2.3 5.0 4.0 4.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 33.6 16.4 13.8 15.4 6.0 15.0 WASSA UNDERGROUND, Ghana Q1/16A Q2/16A Q3/16E Q4/16E Q1/17E Q2/17E Q3/17E Q4/17E 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Ore Mined (kt) 0.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 150.0 175.0 175.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 150.0 650.0 777.1 Waste Mined (kt) 0.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 125.0 125.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 150.0 450.0 500.0 Ore Processed (kt) 0.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 150.0 175.0 175.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 150.0 650.0 777.1 Grade (g/t) 0.00 0.00 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28 4.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.28 4.28 4.28 Recovery (%) 0% 0% 93% 93% 93% 93% 93% 93% 0% 0% 0% 93% 93% 93% Production (koz) 0.0 0.0 6.4 12.8 19.2 19.2 22.4 22.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2 83.2 99.5 Sales (koz) 0.0 0.0 6.4 12.8 19.2
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