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Rating Rationale RRRRRR aaaattttiiiinnnngggg Caribbean Information & Credit Rating Services Limited RRRRRRaaaattttiiiioooonnnnaaaalllleeee Government of Saint Lucia XCD 140 million Debt Issue Cari BBB+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) (Initial) Cari BBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency) USD 50 million Debt Issue Cari BBB+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) (Reaffirmed) Cari BBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency) USD 38 million Debt Issue Cari BBB+ (Regional Scale Foreign Currency) (Reaffirmed) Cari BBB+ (Regional Scale Local Currency) Analytical Contacts: RATIONALE SUMMARY Sherry Ann Persad Tel: 1-868-627-8879 Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited E-mail: [email protected] (CariCRIS) has assigned ratings of Cari BBB+ (local and foreign currency) on its regional rating scale to the XCD 140 million bond Stefan Fortuné Tel: 1-868-627-8879 issue and reaffirmed its ratings of Cari BBB+ (local and foreign E-mail: [email protected] currency) for the USD 50 million and USD 38 million debt issues Disclaimer: CariCRIS has taken due care of the Government of Saint Lucia. These ratings indicate that the and caution in compilation of data for this product. Information has been level of creditworthiness of these obligations, adjudged in obtained by CariCRIS from sources 1 which it considers reliable. However, relation to other obligations in the Caribbean is adequate. CariCRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the The ratings continue to reflect Saint Lucia’s moderate results obtained from the use of such information. No part of this report may macroeconomic performance in the face of an uncertain global be published / reproduced in any form without CariCRIS’ prior written environment. Saint Lucia’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) approval. CariCRIS is also not responsible for any errors in has expanded in the last 6 years; 1% in 2011 up from 0.6% in 2010. transmission and especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers/ users/ transmitters/ 1 The term Caribbean as used here covers the following countries: Bahamas, Barbados, distributors of this product . Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Panama, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago and the following countries in the OECS: Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts & Nevis, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent & the Grenadines. Refer www.caricris.com for a more detailed explanation on CariCRIS ratings and rating definitions. Visit us on the web at www.caricris.com CariCRIS has a practice of keeping all its ratings under continuous surveillance and ratings are revised as and when circumstances so warrant. For the latest rating information on any instrument of any company rated by CariCRIS, please contact CariCRIS at +1 868 627 8879 The tourism industry, the engine of growth, performed creditably in the face of a myriad of challenges with stay-over arrivals declining by a mere 0.4% in 2011 and 2.1% to August 2012. However, a 7% decline was recorded in tourism expenditure in 2011. As expected, the fiscal deficit widened as capital expenditure rose to undertake repair works post Hurricane Tomas. CariCRIS expects that with the implementation of VAT, a full year’s collection of the new property tax together with an ongoing simplification of the tax system, there should be an improvement in overall fiscal flexibility in FY2012/13. The financial sector remained sound with banks continuing to be well capitalized. Balance of payments (BOP) surpluses were recorded for the period 2009 to 2011 and even though reserves have declined the level remained adequate and represented 4.7 months of imports in 2011. CariCRIS believes that 2012 will be another challenging year as economic activity remains subdued, the global recovery sluggish and uncertainty and lack of confidence in the market prolonged. Notwithstanding, Saint Lucia is expected to maintain its performance in tourism as marketing initiatives in its key markets are strengthened. Additionally, even though the debt to GDP level is expected to rise it will remain moderate and among the lowest in the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) region. The ratings on Saint Lucia reflect its monetary and exchange rate stability underpinned by its membership in a quasi currency board arrangement and its relatively diversified economic base. Also supporting the ratings is an external sector characterised by moderate balance of payments (BOP) performances and relatively low external debt. Tempering these rating strengths are the limited fiscal flexibility emanating from its narrow tax base and continued fiscal pressures arising from sluggish revenue growth and rising expenditure. Another factor constraining the ratings is the high level of crime which is emerging as the main social issue impacting the island. Monetary and exchange rate stability underpinned by membership in a quasi currency board arrangement As a quasi currency board, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) has adopted a number of operating parameters which have served to limit exchange rate uncertainty and foster macroeconomic stability. The ECCB maintains external reserves at a level that is at least 60% of its monetary liabilities, and can make temporary advances to member governments amounting to a maximum of 5% of the government’s average annual current revenue. The holdings in any one government’s treasury bills cannot exceed 10% of the estimated current revenue of that government, and holdings of other government 2 securities may not exceed 15% of currency in circulation and other demand liabilities. Relative to its Caribbean counterparts, the ECCB enjoys a greater degree of political independence. The fixed exchange rate peg at EC $2.70 to US $1.00, which has been in effect since July 1976, has underpinned price stability, a credible currency and a stable environment conducive to foreign investment and growth. Historically, inflation rates have been low and are among the lowest in the OECS with a 2-year average of 3%. In 2011, the annual average inflation rate fell to 2.8% from 3.3% in the prior year; however, this trend was reversed rising to 3.5% in September 2012. Going forward, CariCRIS expects the inflationary pressures to mount in line with rising international crude oil and food prices. The peg to the US dollar resulted in a real effective depreciation of the currency averaging 0.7% in the last 2 years indicating the possibility of a gain in external competitiveness. The financial sector in Saint Lucia is relatively small with 6 commercial banks, 16 credit unions, 26 insurance companies, 7 non-bank financial institutions and 1 development bank. Saint Lucia was a relative late starter in the offshore segment and has only 4 offshore banks. Licenses for both domestic and offshore banks are issued by the Minister of Finance, with the ECCB having sole responsibility for the supervision of the domestic banking sector, whilst the offshore sector is regulated by the Ministry of Finance. In spite of the passage of legislation for the establishment of the Single Regulatory Unit, the commencement of operations has been delayed following the change in government as a new board has to be appointed. The financial sector remains broadly sound despite the challenging macroeconomic environment which has negatively impacted several key indicators. Commercial banks remained well capitalized as the capital adequacy ratio stood at 19% in 2011, well above the regulatory minimum requirement of 8%. However, non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans, which have trended upwards since 2007, increased to 13.2% in 2011 from 12.4% in 2010; well above the ECCB’s minimum ratio of 5%. CariCRIS believes the asset quality of banks will continue to deteriorate given the subdued economic activity as well as the high unemployment rate. The provisioning levels continue to be low, relative to its regional peers, in spite of the rise to 36.2% of NPLs in 2011 from a 5-year low of 23.2% in 2010. Despite the sluggish economic activity credit to the private sector has recorded growth since 2003; though only marginal in the period 2009 to 2011. While there were no bank failures in the recent past, in September 2009, the ECCB’s Monetary Council was instrumental in the provision of a resolution for British American Insurance Company Limited (BAICO) operations in the islands of the OECS, including Saint Lucia. In July 2009 3 a Judicial Manager was appointed to the BAICO operations in Saint Lucia while the OECS heads of government, together with the heads of the governments of Trinidad and Tobago and the Bahamas, sought to restructure the operations of the company. Subsequently, the OECS governments have agreed on a three-stage restructuring which includes the creation of a compensation fund to settle eligible health insurance claims which began in May 2011 as the “Health Insurance Support Fund”. The 2 nd stage is the recapitalisation of BAICO’s traditional life insurance portfolio with funds from the “Liquidity Support Fund”, provided by OECS governments, after which it would be sold to a third party. The final stage is the creation of a compensation scheme for BAICO’s non-traditional policyholders. Saint Lucia has limited monetary policy flexibility being a member of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). A minimum deposit rate of 3% is set by the ECCB whilst the lending rates are market determined contributing to the relatively stable interest rate environment. The deposit rate has averaged 3.2% in the last 3 years while the lending rate has averaged 9.4%. The implementation of most of the recommendations in the IMF’s FSAP report, dated September 2004, has positively impacted the financial sector and places Saint Lucia ahead of some of its regional peers. The financial and capital market infrastructure in the OECS is relatively more developed compared to the other countries in the Caribbean region, and gives the government of Saint Lucia a crucial financing option.
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