Studies and Perspectives Series – the Caribbean – No
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ISSN 1727-9917 eclac subregional studies and headquarters SERIES PERSPECTIves for the caribbean Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2011-2012 Positive growth amidst lingering downside risks Dillon Alleyne Tom Amonde Michael Hendrickson Kohei Yoshida Michele Dookie 23 Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2011-2012: Positive growth amidst lingering downside risks Dillon Alleyne Tom Amonde Michael Hendrickson Kohei Yoshida Michele Dookie The 2011-2012 edition of the Economic Survey of the Caribbean was prepared under the supervision of Dillon Alleyne, Coordinator of the Economic Development and Integration Unit, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), subregional headquarters for the Caribbean, with the assistance of Michael Hendrickson, Tom Amonde and Kohei Yoshida, Economic Affairs Officers, and Michele Dookie, Research Assistant. The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization. United Nations publication ISSN 1727-9917 LC/L.3623 LC/CAR/L.402 Copyright © United Nations, May 2013. All rights reserved Printed in United Nations Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and inform the United Nations of such reproduction. ECLAC – Studies and Perspectives series – The Caribbean – No. 23 Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2011-2012… Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................... 7 Introduction .............................................................................................. 9 I. Subregional Analysis ...................................................................... 10 A. The global economic situation and the Caribbean response ..... 10 1. Slow recovery and continuing downside economic risks . 10 2. Unemployment in developed countries ............................ 13 B. GDP growth performance in the Caribbean ............................. 14 C. Fiscal policy and public debt .................................................... 16 1. Public debt ........................................................................ 18 2. Debt service payments ...................................................... 20 D. Monetary policy, inflation and domestic credit ........................ 22 1. Inflation ............................................................................ 22 2. Measures of monetary policy ........................................... 23 3. Liquidity and interest rates ............................................... 23 4. Domestic credit................................................................. 24 E. Balance of payments ................................................................ 25 1. Current accounts ............................................................... 25 2. Financial and capital account ........................................... 27 3. International reserves ....................................................... 28 F. Outlook for 2012 and recommendations .................................. 29 II. Country briefs ................................................................................. 31 A. Bahamas ................................................................................... 31 1. General trends .................................................................. 31 2. Economic policy ............................................................... 31 3. Evolution of the main variables ........................................ 32 B. Barbados ................................................................................... 33 1. General trends .................................................................. 33 2. Economic policy ............................................................... 34 3. Evolution of the main variables ........................................ 34 3 ECLAC – Studies and Perspectives series – The Caribbean – No. 23 Economic Survey of the Caribbean 2011-2012… C. Belize ............................................................................................................................................. 35 1. General trends ................................................................................................................ 35 2. Economic policy ............................................................................................................ 35 3. Evolution of the main variables ..................................................................................... 36 D. Eastern Caribbean Currency Union ................................................................................................ 37 1. General trends ................................................................................................................ 37 2. Economic policy ............................................................................................................ 38 3. Evolution of the main variables ..................................................................................... 39 E. Guyana ........................................................................................................................................... 40 1. General trends ................................................................................................................ 40 2. Economic policy ............................................................................................................ 41 3. Evolution of the main variables ..................................................................................... 41 F. Jamaica ........................................................................................................................................... 42 1. General trends ................................................................................................................ 42 2. Economic policy ............................................................................................................ 43 3. Evolution of the main variables ..................................................................................... 43 G. Suriname ........................................................................................................................................ 44 1. General trends ................................................................................................................ 44 2. Economic policy ............................................................................................................ 45 3. Evolution of the main variables ..................................................................................... 45 H. Trinidad and Tobago ...................................................................................................................... 46 1. General trends ................................................................................................................ 46 2. Economic policy ............................................................................................................ 46 3. Evolution of the main variables ..................................................................................... 47 Annex ....................................................................................................................................................... 49 Annex 1 Policies implemented to cope with the economic crisis ......................................................... 50 Annex 2 Statistical Appendix ............................................................................................................... 54 Annex 3 Statistical Annex .................................................................................................................... 61 Studies and Perspectives series, The Caribbean: Issues published .................................................... 85 Tables TABLE 1 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ................................................................................................ 13 TABLE 2 CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH RATES, 2007-2011 .......................................................... 14 TABLE 3 CARIBBEAN SECTORALa COMPOSITION, GROWTH RATES AND CONTRIBUTION, 2009-2010 ................................................................................... 15 TABLE 4 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, 2000-2011 ............................................................................. 15 TABLE 5 CARIBBEAN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL EXPENDITURES BY CATEGORIES ............................................................................................................... 16 TABLE 6 FISCAL BALANCE ............................................................................................................. 17 TABLE 7 PUBLIC DEBT, 2009-2011 .................................................................................................. 19 TABLE 8 DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS RATIOS FOR CARIBBEAN ............................................ 21 TABLE 9 INFLATION, 2008-2011 ...................................................................................................... 22 TABLE 10 MONETARY POLICY MEASURES IN 2011..................................................................... 23 TABLE 11 LIQUIDITY AND INTEREST RATES, 2010-2011 ............................................................ 24 TABLE 12 GROWTH IN DOMESTIC CREDIT ..................................................................................