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TAMPERE TRAVEL AND SERVICE CENTRE ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL CONDITIONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION AND THE COMMERCIAL CONCEPT 9 October 2015 NEWSEC VALUATION OY Contents 1 Background ........................................................................................................... 3 2 The scope .............................................................................................................. 3 3 The Travel and Service Centre – phasing and scheduling of implementation .................................................................................................... 4 3.1 Projects in central Tampere .......................................................................................... 5 3.2 Construction of parking spaces outside the Travel and Service Centre area ..... 11 3.3 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 12 4 Assessment of the financial conditions for the project ................................ 15 4.1 The property investment market in Tampere ........................................................... 15 4.2 Estimated unit costs and values ................................................................................. 16 4.3 Financial assessment .................................................................................................. 18 5 Market position of the Travel and Service Centre .......................................... 19 5.1 Commercial centres in Tampere ................................................................................ 21 5.2 Accessibility ................................................................................................................... 25 6 The commercial concept of the Travel and Service Centre .......................... 27 6.1 Comparison with other projects .................................................................................. 29 6.2 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 30 7 Demand for housing construction ................................................................... 33 8 Demand for commercial premises ................................................................... 35 8.1 Factors affecting commercial premises construction .............................................. 35 8.2 Construction of commercial premises ....................................................................... 37 8.3 Construction projects in Tampere .............................................................................. 38 8.4 The office market .......................................................................................................... 39 8.5 The business premises market .................................................................................. 45 8.6 The hotel market ........................................................................................................... 49 9 Summary ............................................................................................................. 52 NEWSEC VALUATION OY 1 Background Parties to the letter of intent signed between the municipalities of the Tampere Central Region and the State regarding land use, housing and traffic, Senate Properties, and VR-Group Ltd have established a joint planning area and project covering the Tampere railway station area, with the goal to prepare an overall plan for the development of the railway station and the railway yard and to set a schedule for its implementation. In the first phase of the Tampere Travel and Service Centre project in 2013, a traffic and operational concept for the centre was prepared. In the second phase of the project in 2014, a design contest for the Travel and Service Centre area was held to find land use solutions proposals for the traffic and operational concept. The proposal “ReConnecting Tampere” won the contest. The jury recommended that the proposal be used as a basis for further planning in the area. Newsec Valuation Oy was a member of the team that submitted the winning competition proposal. In addition to the current railway station functions, the Travel and Service Centre area is planned to include a bus station, housing, business and office premises, a hotel, sports premises, and private and public services. 2 The scope This report aims to clarify the financial implementation requirements of the ReConnecting Tampere proposal from a property business perspective, and to clarify also the commercial concept of the Travel and Service Centre. The purpose of this report is to serve as grounds for further planning, for the master plan, and for any later local detailed plan amendments. The report consists of two separate entities, namely 1) assessment of the financial conditions for the implementation of the competition proposal, and 2) determining the commercial concept of the competition proposal. Assessment of the financial conditions for the implementation of the competition proposal To assess the financial conditions for the implementation of the competition proposal, the total construction volume as well as the construction volume for each function required for the construction of the deck to be profitable was calculated. The construction of parking spaces outside the Travel and Service Centre area has also been considered. Other large construction projects in Tampere city centre have been considered in the phasing and scheduling of the Travel and Service Centre project. Phasing and scheduling have been inspected regarding the changes that these other projects would impose on the operating environment, and regarding their mutual interdependencies. 3 NEWSEC VALUATION OY Formulating the commercial concept of the competition proposal To determine the commercial concept of the competition entry, the market position of the Travel and Service Centre must first be specified in relation to other areas and commercial centres in central Tampere. This report introduces the city centre business and service structure and the range and location of the offering. In addition, the accessibility and usability of premises included in the contest proposal that serve consumers are described from the consumer viewpoint and from the perspective of the companies renting the premises. The commercial concept of the Travel and Service Centre and the space reservations that are needed for its implementation are presented based on the current market situation in central Tampere. 3 The Travel and Service Centre – phasing and scheduling of implementation The total building stock in the centre of Tampere amounts to around 3.41 million m², including 1.51 million m² of housing, 1.34 million m² of office space, 0.43 million m² of store premises, and 0.13 million m² of industrial premises. The new construction planned in the Travel and Service Centre area is around 5% of this total. The Tampere Travel and Service Centre will be a new kind of multifunctional centre for travel and services, integrating public transport services into the city centre. In addition to transport station functions, the planned construction in the Travel and Service Centre area includes business premises, offices, and a hotel. In analysing the phasing and scheduling of the Travel and Service Centre project, other large construction projects in Tampere city centre have also been considered. The phasing and scheduling have been inspected in relation to these changes to the operating environment, and with regard to their mutual interdependencies. Each of the large construction projects is introduced separately. Due to the various remaining open questions relating to the implementation and the implementation schedule, the phasing and scheduling of the Travel and Service Centre project are rough estimates only. A more detailed assessment can be made once there has been verification of e.g. planning, the cost and schedule of deck construction, and the schedule for the modification work required on the railway yard before deck construction can begin. 4 NEWSEC VALUATION OY 3.1 Projects in central Tampere The Deck and the Arena In early summer 2015, the city began a public procurement process on the implementation of the Deck and the Arena. Negotiations with the possible constructors will be held during autumn 2015. Once the constructors have been selected, an outline for the project schedule will be prepared. The construction of the Deck and the multifunctional arena will make the centre of Tampere more compact by functionally connecting it with the Tulli district, which is currently separated from the city centre by the railway tracks. Based on our estimate, the construction will support the Travel and Service Centre project by increasing the city centre population and demand in the area. The building of the Deck and the multifunctional arena will therefore support the implementation of the Travel and Service Centre. According to our estimate, the postponement of construction of the Deck and the multifunctional arena would increase uncertainty among various interest groups about the implementation of the Travel and Service Centre. 5 NEWSEC VALUATION OY Ratina Shopping Centre Sponda has decided to begin work on the Ratina Shopping Centre project. The project will create 53,000 m² of business and service premises and around 1,250 parking spaces in Ratina. The aim is to attract over 150 stores to the shopping centre. Based on the owner’s announcement, Ratina will include two grocery stores,
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