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DFWXDOO\RQWKHULVH H[SHFWHGWRUHPDLQVWDEOHDWDERXWDVLQ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 11 Regional panorama 12 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 13 Chapter I Introduction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able I.1 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Annual rates of variation) 2004 2005 a 2006 b Latin America and the Caribbean 5.9 4.3 4.1 South America 6.9 4.9 4.3 Brazil 4.9 2.5 3.0 Southern Cone 8.4 7.8 5.7 Andean Community 9.5 6.4 4.9 Mexico and Central America 4.2 3.1 3.6 Central America 4.0 3.9 4.2 Mexico 4.2 3.0 3.5 Caribbean 4.0 4.1 5.3 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Estimate. b Projection. 14 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) $VGLVFXVVHGLQJUHDWHUGHWDLOLQWKHFKDSWHURQWKH 7KH8QLWHG6WDWHVHFRQRP\¶VVXVWDLQHGH[SDQVLRQ H[WHUQDOVHFWRUWKH/DWLQ$PHULFDQHFRQRPLHV¶SHUIRUPDQFH FRQWLQXHVWREHEXR\HGE\FRQVXPSWLRQDQGWKH KDVQRWRFFXUUHGLQLVRODWLRQEXWLVLQVWHDGSDUWRIDSLFWXUHRI FXUUHQWDFFRXQWGHILFLWRQWKHEDODQFHRISD\PHQWVKDV ZLGHVSUHDGJURZWKWKURXJKRXWWKHZRUOGHFRQRP\2YHUDOO FRQVHTXHQWO\ZLGHQHGWRRYHURI*'37KHILVFDO *'3JURZWKIRULVH[SHFWHGWRDPRXQWWRDURXQG GHILFLWPD\HQGXSEHLQJVPDOOHUWKDQH[SHFWHG ZKLFKLVDOLWWOHORZHUWKDQODVW\HDU¶VUDWH7KHJURZWKRIZRUOG RI*'3 WKDQNVWRDQXSVZLQJLQSXEOLFVHFWRUUHYHQXHV WUDGHLVSURMHFWHGDWDERXW7KHH[SDQVLRQRIWKH8QLWHG -DSDQLVFRQWLQXLQJWRJURZDOEHLWDWDIDLUO\VORZSDFH 6WDWHV DQG&KLQHVH HFRQRPLHVZLOOFRQWLQXHWR DURXQG DQGWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ¶VRYHUDOOJURZWK GULYHZRUOGHFRQRPLFJURZWKZLWKWKHGHYHORSHGHFRQRPLHV UDWHLVH[SHFWHGWRVOLSIURPWRDOWKRXJK DVDJURXSJURZLQJDWDQGWKHGHYHORSLQJHFRQRPLHV WKHUDWHVSRVWHGE\LWVLQGLYLGXDOPHPEHUFRXQWULHV PDUNLQJXSDUDWHRI ZLWKRXW&KLQD YDU\FRQVLGHUDEO\ Table I.2 WORLD GROWTH RATES (Annual rates of variation) 2004 2005 a 2006 b World GDP 4.0 3.3 3.3 Developed countries 3.2 2.5 2.5 Transition economies 7.7 6.0 5.9 Developing countries 6.6 5.7 5.6 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Estimate. b Projection. 7KHJURZWKRIWKHZRUOGHFRQRP\RQFHDJDLQKDGD )LUVWRIDOOLIWKHSURMHFWLRQVIRUWXUQRXWWR SRVLWLYHLPSDFWRQWKHUHJLRQ¶VWHUPVRIWUDGH HVSHFLDOO\LQ EHDFFXUDWHWKHQWKHUHJLRQZLOOKDYHJURZQE\ WKHFDVHRISHWUROHXPDQGRWKHUPLQHUDOV ZKLFKLPSURYHG 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of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 15 Figure I.1 MEDIAN ANNUAL PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH (Annual rates of variation) D E DYHUDJH ,QGXVWULDOL]HGHFRQRPLHV 'HYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV QRWLQFOXGLQJ/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ 6RXWK$PHULFD &HQWUDO$PHULFDDQG0H[LFR Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Estimate. b Projection. 8QOLNHZKDWRFFXUUHGLQWKH VWKXVIDUWKLVGHFDGH DVXIILFLHQWO\UDSLGJURZWKUDWHWRPDNHDQ\VLJQLILFDQW GHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVKDYHFRQVLVWHQWO\EHHQRXWSDFLQJ GHQWLQXQHPSOR\PHQWRUSRYHUW\ VHHILJXUH, GHYHORSHGFRXQWULHV VHHILJXUH, ,QWHUHVWLQJO\HQRXJK 7KLVPHDQVWKDWHYHQWKRXJKWKHJURZWKSKDVHEHLQJ LQDVLQWKH6RXWK$PHULFDQFRXQWULHV¶PHGLDQ H[SHULHQFHGE\/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQLVD SHUFDSLWD*'3JURZWKUDWH DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\ QRWHZRUWK\GHYHORSPHQWIURPDKLVWRULFDOVWDQGSRLQW LVOLNHO\WREHKLJKHUWKDQWKHUDWHIRUGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV DFRPSDULVRQZLWKZKDWLVJRLQJRQLQRWKHUUHJLRQVRI DVDJURXS DQG ZKHUHDV0H[LFR¶VDQG&HQWUDO 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Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 17 Figure I.3 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: BREAKDOWN OF VARIATION IN CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE BETWEEN AVERAGES FOR 1990-1999 AND 2004-2005 a 3HUFHQWDJHVRI*'3LQFXUUHQWGROODUV 6RXWK$PHULFD &HQWUDO$PHULFD 0H[LFR ,QFOXGHVWKH'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLFDQG+DLWL 6HUYLFHV E &XUUHQWWUDQVIHUV UHPLWWDQFHVDQGRWKHUV ,QFRPH 1HWH[SRUWYROXPH 7HUPVRIWUDGH 9DULDWLRQLQFXUUHQWDFFRXQWEDODQFH Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a The data shown for 2005 are estimates. b Includes residual of the combined effect of prices and volumes on the trade balance. 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The business cycle %XR\HGE\WKHIDYRXUDEOHLQWHUQDWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQW , 0RVWRIWKHKLJKHVWJURZWKUDWHVKDYHEHHQUHFRUGHG H[SRUWVKDYHEHHQRQHRIWKHPRVWG\QDPLFFRPSRQHQWV LQ6RXWK$PHULFDDQGPRVWRIWKHORZHVWLQ0H[LFRDQG RIGHPDQGHVSHFLDOO\LQVRPHRIWKH6RXWK$PHULFDQ &HQWUDO$PHULFD7KHIDFWRUVXQGHUO\LQJWKHVHGLIIHUHQFHV FRXQWULHV$OWKRXJKWKHDYHUDJHJURZWKUDWHIRUWKH LQFOXGHGLIIHULQJWUHQGVLQFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVZKLFKZLOOEH UHJLRQ¶VYROXPHRIH[SRUWVDWDURXQGVWDQGVMXVW GLVFXVVHGLQDODWHUVHFWLRQDQGWKHYDU\LQJHIIHFWVWKDW VOLJKWO\DERYHWKHZRUOGDYHUDJHDQXPEHURIFRXQWULHV &KLQD¶VLQYROYHPHQWLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHWVKDVRQWKH DUHSRVWLQJLQFUHDVHVRIRYHULQ VHHILJXUH GLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHV 18 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean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¶H[FKDQJHUDWHV Figure I.4 LATIN AMERICA: GROWTH RATE FOR MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, 2005 a Haiti 23.5 Argentina 16.0 Uruguay 15.8 Peru 14.5 Costa Rica 12.4 Colombia 12.3 Brazil 10.9 Panama 10.9 Bolivia 10.1 Nicaragua 7.8 LATIN AMERICA 7.7 Guatemala 7.5 Chile 6.9 Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) 5.1 Mexico 4.6 Paraguay 3.3 El Salvador 2.1 Honduras 1.9 Ecuador 1.6 Dominican Republic 1.6 0 5 10 15 20 25 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Estimate. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 19 Figure I.5 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, 2005 a (Rates of variation based on figures in constant 2000 dollars) 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSRI &KLOH $UJHQWLQD &RORPELD 8UXJXD\ 6287+$0(5,&$ /$7,1$0(5,&$ 3HUX (FXDGRU 0H[LFR &(175$/$0(5,&$$1'0(;,&2 (O6DOYDGRU 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF 1LFDUDJXD %UD]LO 3DQDPD *XDWHPDOD &RVWD5LFD 3DUDJXD\ %ROLYLD +RQGXUDV +DLWL Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Estimate. Figure I.6 LATIN AMERICA: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP (Based on figures in constant 2000 dollars) D Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Estimate. 20 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) C. Fiscal policy and external vulnerability $VZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGLQGHWDLOLQWKHFKDSWHURQILVFDO FRXQWULHVZKRVHOHYHOVRILQGHEWHGQHVVDUHDFWXDOO\RQ SROLF\WKHJRYHUQPHQWVRIWKHUHJLRQDUHWDNLQJ WKHULVH VHHILJXUH, DGYDQWDJHRIWKHFXUUHQWO\IDYRXUDEOHFRPELQDWLRQ $OWKRXJKPDQ\RIWKHFRXQWULHV¶GHEWFRHIILFLHQWVDUHVWLOO RIHFRQRPLFIDFWRUVLQRUGHUWRLPSURYHWKHLUSXEOLF YHU\KLJKWKHUHGXFWLRQLQWKHLUSXEOLFGHEWWR*'3UDWLRV VHFWRUDFFRXQWV7KHIDFWWKDWWKHLQFUHDVHLQILVFDO DUHKHOSLQJWRPDNHWKHUHJLRQOHVVYXOQHUDEOHWRH[WHUQDO UHYHQXHVJHQHUDWHGE\EULVNHUHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\DQG VKRFNV$QRWKHUIDFWRUWKDWLVOHDGLQJWKHUHJLRQLQWKHVDPH WKHKLJKSULFHVEHLQJEURXJKWE\VRPHRIWKHUHJLRQ¶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igure I.7 PUBLIC DEBT IN LATIN AMERICA, EMERGING ECONOMIES AND INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES (Percentages of GDP) D ,QGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHV /DWLQ$PHULFD (PHUJLQJHFRQRPLHV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and International Monetary Fund. a Estimate. $VQRWHGLQWKH(FRQRPLF6XUYH\RI/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQVRPH&DULEEHDQFRXQWULHVKDYHH[WUHPHO\KLJKGHEW OHYHOV Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 21 )LJXUH,SURYLGHVDVLPSOLILHGVFKHPDWLFRIWKH SURSRUWLRQRIVKRUWWHUPGHEWDQGWKH\KDYHEHJXQWR RULJLQVDQGGHVWLQDWLRQVRIIRUHLJQH[FKDQJHIORZVZKLFK LVVXHORFDOFXUUHQF\GHEWLQVWUXPHQWVRQLQWHUQDWLRQDO VKRZVWKDWGHVSLWHWKHVWULNLQJGLIIHUHQFHVH[LVWLQJDFURVV ILQDQFLDOPDUNHWV VHHER[,, *LYHQWKHIDYRXUDEOH VXEUHJLRQVDOORIWKHPDUHEXLOGLQJXSWKHLUVWRFNVRI VLWXDWLRQDQGWKHSUHVHQFHRIDEXQGDQWLQWHUQDWLRQDO LQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHUYHV$WWKHVDPHWLPHWKHFRXQWULHV¶ OLTXLGLW\WKHUHJLRQ¶VULVNSUHPLXPVKDYHGHVFHQGHG GHEWPDWXULW\SURILOHVDUHLPSURYLQJDVWKH\UHGXFHWKH WRUHFRUGORZV Figure I.8 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS COMPONENTS, 2005 a (Billions of dollars) 0H[LFR &HQWUDO$PHULFD $QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\DQG&KLOH 0(5&2685 &XUUHQWDFFRXQWEDODQFH 1HWIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW 3RUWIROLRDQGRWKHULQYHVWPHQW ,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\)XQGDQGH[FHSWLRQDOILQDQFLQJ 9DULDWLRQLQUHVHUYHV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of data from the International Monetary Fund. a Estimate. 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The labour market 7KHLPSURYHPHQWLQHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVKDVEHJXQWR UDWHGRZQIURPLQWR WKLV\HDUDWWKHVDPH FDUU\RYHULQWRWKHODERXUPDUNHWWKHUHE\PDNLQJDVWDUW WLPHWKDWWKHIRUPDOVHFWRU¶VVKDUHRIWRWDOHPSOR\PHQWLV RQPLWLJDWLQJWKHGLIILFXOWVRFLDOVLWXDWLRQWKDWKDVH[LVWHGLQ JURZLQJ VHHILJXUH, $VLVWREHH[SHFWHGWKHUHJLRQDO /DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQIRUVRPHWLPHQRZ7KH ODERXUPDUNHW¶VPRUHUREXVWSHUIRUPDQFHKDVEHJXQWR XSWXUQLQHPSOR\PHQWPDGHSRVVLEOHE\WKHHFRQRPLHV¶ EHUHIOHFWHGLQGHFOLQLQJSRYHUW\LQGLFHV7KHHVWLPDWHG JURZWKLQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKWKHVORZHUJURZWKRIWKHODERXU SRYHUW\UDWHIRURIVOLJKWO\RYHURIWKHSRSXODWLRQ VXSSO\ RZLQJLQSDUWWRWKHIDFWWKDWIHZHU\RXQJSHRSOH ZKLOHVWLOOYHU\KLJKUHSUHVHQWVDUHGXFWLRQRIQHDUO\IRXU DUHMRLQLQJWKHZRUNIRUFH KDVSXVKHGWKHXQHPSOR\PHQW SRLQWVVLQFH 6HH(FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQIRU/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ (&/$& 6RFLDO3DQRUDPDRI/DWLQ$PHULFD %ULHILQJ3DSHU 6DQWLDJR &KLOH LQSUHVV 22 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure I.9 LATIN AMERICA: EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (PSOR\PHQWUDWH 8QHPSOR\PHQWUDWH D (PSOR\PHQWUDWH 8QHPSOR\PHQWUDWH Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Estimate. E. Competitiveness and macroeconomic performance 7KHH[FKDQJHUDWHSROLFLHVLPSOHPHQWHGE\WKHUHJLRQ¶V 7KHHVWLPDWHVSUHVHQWHGLQILJXUH,GRQRW FRXQWULHVKDYHSOD\HGDPDMRUUROHQRWRQO\LQFDXVLQJ LQFOXGHWKHFXUUHQFLHVRIWKHRWKHUFRXQWULHVRIWKH VRPHRIWKHFULVHVWKDWRFFXUUHGDWWKHHQGRIWKH V UHJLRQDQGWKHUHIRUHFRUUHVSRQGRQO\WRH[WUDUHJLRQDO DQGWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKLVGHFDGHEXWDOVRLQHQJHQGHULQJ H[FKDQJHUDWHV6LQFHWKHUHJLRQ¶VFRXQWULHVDUH WKHQHZPDFURHFRQRPLFFOLPDWHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHXSWXUQ WUDGLQJSDUWQHUVDQGDOPRVWDOORIWKHLUFXUUHQFLHVDUH LQJURZWKUDWHV7KHFXUUHQF\DSSUHFLDWLRQREVHUYHGLQ LQFUHDVLQJLQYDOXHWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQLVDFWXDOO\VOLJKWO\ DOPRVWDOO/DWLQ$PHULFDQDQG&DULEEHDQFRXQWULHVLQ OHVVWKDQLWDSSHDUVLQILJXUH,2QWKHRWKHUKDQG UHFHQWPRQWKVKDVQRZEHJXQWRDURXVHVRPHFRQFHUQ DORQJHUWHUPDQDO\VLVVKRZVWKDWGHVSLWHWKHUHFHQW KRZHYHU7KHUHJLRQ¶VLPSURYHGSRVLWLRQLQWHUPVRILWV DSSUHFLDWLRQPDQ\FRXQWULHVKDYHKLJKHUUHDOH[FKDQJH HFRQRPLFDQGILQDQFLDOUHODWLRQVZLWKWKHUHVWRIWKHZRUOG UDWHVQRZWKDQWKH\GLGGXULQJWKH VZKHQPDQ\ KDVJHQHUDWHGH[FHVVVXSSO\RQWKHH[FKDQJHPDUNHWWKDW RIWKHPZHUHUXQQLQJKHIW\FXUUHQWDFFRXQWGHILFLWV KDVSXVKHGGRZQWKHUHJLRQ¶VUHDOH[FKDQJHUDWHVZLWK ,QDQ\HYHQWWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQDSSHDUVWREHPRUHRIDQ WKHH[WHQWRIWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQYDU\LQJIURPFRXQWU\WR LVVXHLQWKHQRUWKHUQSDUWRIWKHUHJLRQWKDQWKHVRXWK FRXQWU\ VHHILJXUH, VHHILJXUH, Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 23 Figure I.10 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: REAL EFFECTIVE EXTRAREGIONAL EXCHANGE RATES (Year-on-year average for August-October 2005) a (FXDGRU 3HUX 3DQDPD 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSRI &RVWD5LFD (O6DOYDGRU %ROLYLD 3DUDJXD\ +RQGXUDV 1LFDUDJXD 0H[LFR $UJHQWLQD *XDWHPDOD &RORPELD &KLOH 8UXJXD\ 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLFE %UD]LO Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and the International Monetary Fund. a The real effective extraregional exchange rate is calculated using the effective exchange rate for each of the region’s countries, without including the effect of trade or the real bilateral exchange rates of other Latin American and Caribbean countries. b In the case of the Dominican Republic, the calculation is based on the real bilateral exchange rate against the dollar. Figure I.11 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (Average for August-October 2005 with respect to August-October 2004 and the 1990s) 3DUDJXD\ %ROLYLD 3HUX (FXDGRU 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSRI 3DQDPD (O6DOYDGRU &RVWD5LFD $UJHQWLQD +RQGXUDV 1LFDUDJXD 0H[LFR *XDWHPDOD 8UXJXD\ &KLOH &RORPELD 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLFD %UD]LO :LWKUHVSHFWWRDYHUDJHIRU :LWKUHVSHFWWRDYHUDJHIRU$XJXVW2FWREHU Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and the International Monetary Fund. a In the case of the Dominican Republic, the calculation is based on the real bilateral exchange rate against the dollar. 24 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 1RQHWKHOHVVFRQFHUQVDERXWDQHQWUHQFKPHQWRI FRPPRGLWLHVH[SRUWHGE\WKHUHJLRQDQGWRHPLJUDQW FXUUHQWWUHQGVLQUHDOSDULWLHVDUHSDUWO\DUHIOHFWLRQRIKRZ UHPLWWDQFHV%RWKIDFWRUVFDQSXVKGRZQWKHUHDOHTXLOLEULXP GLIILFXOWJRYHUQPHQWVILQGLWWRPDLQWDLQKLJKOHYHOVRI H[FKDQJHUDWHWRDOHYHOEHORZWKDWQHHGHGIRUDZLGH FRPSHWLWLYHQHVVZLWKRXWQHJOHFWLQJWKHVWDELOLW\RIRWKHU VHJPHQWRIWKHSURGXFWLYHIDEULFWRFRPSHWHVXFFHVVIXOO\ GRPHVWLFHFRQRPLFYDULDEOHV7KHOLWHUDWXUHRQH[FKDQJH DWWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOOHYHO2QWKHRWKHUKDQGJLYHQWKDW UDWHUHJLPHVKDVGHILQHGWKLVSUREOHPDVWKH³LPSRVVLEOH LQWKHEHVWRIFDVHVWKLVSUREOHPLVRQO\SDUWO\DVVRFLDWHG WULQLW\´ZKHUHE\QRFRXQWU\FDQVLPXOWDQHRXVO\FRQWUROLWV ZLWKILQDQFLDOPDUNHWLQWHJUDWLRQWKHUHLVOLPLWHGVFRSHIRU UHDOH[FKDQJHUDWHPDLQWDLQLWVPRQHWDU\LQGHSHQGHQFHDQG SURYLGLQJHFRQRPLFSROLF\ZLWKJUHDWHUGHJUHHVRIIUHHGRP EHLQWHJUDWHGLQWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOILQDQFLDOPDUNHWV:KDWLV WKURXJKWKHLPSRVLWLRQRIUHVWULFWLRQVRQFDSLWDOLQIORZV PRUHVLQFHILQDQFLDOPDUNHWLQWHJUDWLRQLVLQFUHDVLQJHYHQ ,QWKHVKRUWUXQWKHQLWDSSHDUVWKDWWKHPDQRHXYULQJ EH\RQGQDWLRQDOHFRQRPLFSROLFLHV¶VSKHUHRILQIOXHQFH URRPRSHQWRHFRQRPLFDXWKRULWLHVLQRUGHUWRHVFDSHIURP LQSUDFWLFHWKLV³LPSRVVLEOHWULQLW\´PD\HYHQWXDOO\IRUFH WKHWUDGHRIIEHWZHHQWKHOHYHORIPRQHWDU\LQGHSHQGHQFH FRXQWULHVWRFKRRVHEHWZHHQH[FKDQJHUDWHVWDELOLW\DQG WKH\DUHSUHSDUHGWRUHOLQTXLVKDQGWKHGHJUHHRIFXUUHQF\ PRQHWDU\LQGHSHQGHQFH DSSUHFLDWLRQWKH\DUHZLOOLQJWRWROHUDWHZLOOGHSHQG ,WVKRXOGEHSRLQWHGRXWWKDWWKLVFKRLFHUHIHUVWR JLYHQWKHLPSHUIHFWLRQRIWKHLUHFRQRPLHV¶LQWHJUDWLRQ DEVROXWHFDWHJRULHV7KLVPHDQVWKDWDWOHDVWLQWKHRU\WKHUH LQWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOFDSLWDOPDUNHWVRQWKHLUFHQWUDOEDQNV¶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³1RVLQJOHFXUUHQF\UHJLPHLVULJKWIRUDOOFRXQWULHVRUDWDOOWLPHV´1%(5:RUNLQJ3DSHUVHULHV1R 6HSWHPEHU 7KLVLVNQRZQDV'XWFKGLVHDVHZKLFKUHIHUVWRWKHH[FKDQJHUDWHSUREOHPWKDWRFFXUUHGLQWKH1HWKHUODQGVIROORZLQJWKHGLVFRYHU\RIPDMRU JDVUHVHUYHV 8QLWODERXUFRVWVLQGROODUVDUHZDJHVLQGROODUVGLYLGHGE\SURGXFWLYLW\SHUZRUNHU*LYHQWKDWWKHILJXUHVDUHRQO\DSSUR[LPDWHSURGXFWLYLW\ ZRXOGKDYHWREHDQDO\VHGIRUDOOIDFWRUVQRWMXVWODERXU Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 25 Figure I.12 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PRODUCTIVITY AND UNIT LABOUR COSTS, 2000-2005 (Index: 1990-1999=100) (a) Productivity D 6RXWK$PHULFD &HQWUDO$PHULFDDQG0H[LFR (b) Unit cost of labour in local currency D 6RXWK$PHULFD &HQWUDO$PHULFDDQG0H[LFR (c) Unit cost of labour in United States dollars D 6RXWK$PHULFD &HQWUDO$PHULFDDQG0H[LFR Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. D Estimates. 26 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean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¶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he outlook for the coming year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reliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 27 Table I.3 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GROWTH OF GDP, 2005-2006 a (Annual rates of variation) Country 2005 b 2006 c Argentina 8.6 6.0 Bolivia 3.8 3.0 Brazil 2.5 3.0 Chile 6.0 5.5 Colombia 4.3 4.5 Costa Rica 4.2 4.0 Ecuador 3.0 3.0 El Salvador 2.5 3.5 Guatemala 3.2 4.0 Haiti 1.5 … Honduras 4.2 4.0 Mexico 3.0 3.5 Nicaragua 4.0 4.0 Panama 6.0 6.5 Paraguay 3.0 3.0 Peru 6.0 5.0 Dominican Republic 7.0 5.0 Uruguay 6.0 4.5 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 9.0 5.5 Caribbean 4.1 5.1 Latin America and the Caribbean 4.3 4.1 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a The Government of Cuba estimates growth of 11.8% for 2005. ECLAC is evaluating this calculation in accordance with the United Nations methodology, a process which has not yet been concluded. As ECLAC does not have its own figures, the calculation for the regional average does not include Cuba. b Estimate. c Projection. 6RPHFRXQWULHVRIWKHUHJLRQZLOOVHHWKHLUHFRQRPLHV¶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¶V 'HVSLWHWKHLQFUHDVHLQVKRUWWHUPLQWHUHVWUDWHV FHQWUDOEDQNVZLOOKDYHWRZRUNWRVWULNHDEDODQFHEHWZHHQ WULJJHUHGE\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHV)HGHUDO5HVHUYH¶VUDWH WKHQHHGWRDYRLGDQ\ORVVRIFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVDQGWKH KLNHORQJHUWHUPUDWHVKDYHFKDQJHGPXFKOHVVRZLQJ PDLQWHQDQFHRIDILUPVWDQFHLQSUHVHUYLQJGRPHVWLF WRWKHVFDUFLW\RILQYHVWPHQWSODQVDQGFRQVHTXHQWO\WKH PDFURHFRQRPLFVWDELOLW\ ZHDNHUUHODWLYHGHPDQGIRUORQJWHUPILQDQFLDOUHVRXUFHV 7KHUHJLRQ¶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conomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) IRUVWUHQJWKHQLQJJRYHUQDQFHDQGOHYHUDJLQJWKHUHJLRQ¶V SROLF\VWUDWHJ\IRUHQKDQFLQJWKHTXDOLW\DQGFRQWHQWRI IXWXUHJURZWKSURVSHFWVE\HQKDQFLQJLWVDELOLW\WRDWWUDFW WKHYDOXHWKDWWKHFRXQWULHVDGGWRWKHLUH[SRUWV%RWKRI PRUHLQYHVWPHQW WKHVHHOHPHQWVDUHQHFHVVDU\FRQGLWLRQVIRUVXVWDLQLQJD $VQRWHGHDUOLHULQWKHPHGLXPWHUPWKHQHHG JURZWKUDWHKLJKHQRXJKWRORZHUWKHUHJLRQ¶VVWLOOKLJK WRPDLQWDLQDKLJKOHYHORIFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVFDOOVIRU OHYHOVRIXQHPSOR\PHQWDQGWKXVKHOSWRPLWLJDWHWKH DPRUHUDSLGLQFUHDVHLQLQYHVWPHQWDQGWKHXVHRID VRFLDOLPEDODQFHVWKDWSODJXHWKHUHJLRQ Figure I.13 YIELD CURVES ON UNITED STATES TREASURY BONDS, 2005 \HDUV \HDUV \HDUV \HDUV \HDUV PRQWKV PRQWKV $W-DQXDU\ $W-XQH $W'HFHPEHU Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 29 Chapter II The external sector A. International environment 1. 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Effects of world economic activity on Latin American and Caribbean exports )URP$SULOJURZWKRI8QLWHG6WDWHVQRQSHWUROHXP RI0H[LFDQH[SRUWVWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVREVHUYHGLQWKH LPSRUWVIURPWKHUHJLRQEHJDQWRVORZDOWKRXJKWKH\ ILUVWKDOIRIVHHPVQRWWRKDYHEHFRPHFRQVROLGDWHG UHPDLQHGDQLPSRUWDQWGULYLQJIRUFHEHKLQGWKHUHJLRQ¶V 0H[LFR¶VPDUNHWVKDUHVKUDQNDJDLQIURPLQ VDOHV VHHILJXUH,, $YHUDJHJURZWKLQDQGWKHILUVW WRLQWKHILUVWQLQHPRQWKVRIZKLOH&KLQD¶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¶VH[WHUQDOSXUFKDVHVRQFHPRUH7KLV 0(5&2685WKH$QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\DQG&KLOHKDV ZDVUHIOHFWHGLQWKHSULFHVRIPHWDOVDQGVR\EHDQZKLFK EHHQSDUWLFXODUO\VWULNLQJZKLOHLPSRUWVIURP0H[LFR IRUPDQLPSRUWDQWSDUWRIWKHH[SRUWEDVNHWRIPDQ\/DWLQ EHJDQWRVORZGRZQIURPPLG,QGHHGWKHUHFRYHU\ $PHULFDQFRXQWULHV &RVWD5LFD(O6DOYDGRU*XDWHPDOD+RQGXUDV1LFDUDJXDDQGWKH'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 33 Figure II.3 UNITED STATES: NON-OIL IMPORTS, JANUARY 2000-SEPTEMBER 2005 (Monthly year-on-year growth rates) a Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean MERCOSUR, Andean Community and Chile 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% . 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 From the world )URPWKHZRUOG From China )URP0(5&2685 From Mexico )URPWKH$QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\DQG&KLOH b From Central America and the Caribbean )URP/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the United States International Trade Commission. a Calculated on the basis of the three-month moving average of the respective series, seasonally adjusted. b Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama and Trinidad and Tobago. Figure II.4 MONTHLY IMPORTS BY CHINA AND SELECTED COMMODITY PRICES, JANUARY 2001-SEPTEMBER 2005 (Three-month moving average of monthly year-on-year growth rates) ,PSRUWVE\&KLQD 0HWDOSULFHV 6R\EHDQSULFHV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of customs statistics from the People’s Republic of China and official institutions. 34 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 3. Commodity prices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¶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¶VFRPPRGLW\H[SRUWV3ULFHV ORZLQYHQWRULHVRQDFFRXQWRIVRDULQJ&KLQHVHGHPDQG ZHUHORZHUWKDQWKHPD[LPXPUHDFKHGDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRI %HWZHHQ-DQXDU\-XO\DQG-DQXDU\-XO\&KLQHVH RZLQJWRDFRQVLGHUDEOHLQFUHDVHLQZRUOGVR\EHDQ GHPDQGIRUFRSSHULQFUHDVHGE\ZKLOHGHPDQGIURP SURGXFWLRQGXULQJWKHKDUYHVW $W RWKHUFRXQWULHVGURSSHGE\7KLVVKRZVWKHGLYHUJHQW WKHVDPHWLPHWKHPXFKVPDOOHULQFUHDVHLQVXSSO\IURP SDWWHUQVWKDWPLJKWHPHUJHLQZRUOGHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\&RSSHU WKHKDUYHVW ²ODUJHO\RQDFFRXQWRI SULFHVKDYHFRQWLQXHGWRULVHDVVXSSO\KDVLQFUHDVHGPXFK WKHHVWLPDWHGGHFUHDVHLQ&KLQD¶VSURGXFWLRQ²KDV OHVVWKDQH[SHFWHGIRUYDULRXVWHFKQLFDODQGODERXUUHODWHG FXUEHGSULFHIDOOVGXULQJ'HVSLWHWKLVD\HDURQ\HDU UHDVRQV7KHPDUNHWVIRULURQRUHDQGVWHHOSURGXFWVDUHVSHFLDO FRPSDULVRQVKRZVDGHFUHDVH DOWKRXJKVR\EHDQ FDVHV &KLQHVHGHPDQGIRULURQRUHKDVFRQWLQXHGWRSXVKXS SULFHVDUH KLJKHUWKDQLQ Table II.1 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EXPORT COMMODITY PRICES,JANUARY 2003-OCTOBER 2005 a (Percentages) 2003 2004 2005 b Growth rate Contribution Growth rate Contribution Growth rate Contribution Total 13.8 100.0 29.4 100.0 20.6 100.0 Energy products 22.3 46.1 28.8 30.0 37.1 51.2 Non-energy products 10.4 53.9 29.7 70.0 14.4 48.8 Food -6.6 -5.4 11.9 3.8 5.6 2.3 Beverages 6.9 1.8 25.1 2.9 48.1 7.4 Oilseeds 19.0 13.8 14.2 5.1 -11.0 -5.1 Industrial raw materials 9.3 6.3 7.6 2.3 -0.4 -0.1 Minerals and metals 13.9 37.4 44.2 55.9 22.3 44.3 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Percentage variations in the price index of commodities exported by Latin America and the Caribbean, aggregated according to the proportion of each product in the region’s exports in 2000. b January-October average. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 35 Figure II.5 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PRICES OF SELECTED EXPORT COMMODITIES, JANUARY 2002-OCTOBER 2005 (Index 2000 = 100) a 3HWUROHXP 7RWDOH[FOXGLQJSHWUROHXP &RSSHU PRQWKJURZWKUDWH ,URQDQGVWHHO 0HDW 6R\EHDQ 6XJDU 0DL]H &RIIHH ULJKWKDQGD[LV :RRGSXOS ULJKWKDQGD[LV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from official institutions. a The aggregate indices are prepared on the basis of weightings corresponding to the proportion of each product in the region’s exports in 2000. 36 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) B. The region 1. Trade in goods and services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¶VH[SRUWVVZHOOHGE\ H[FOXGLQJSHWUROHXP ([SRUWSHUIRUPDQFHLQWKHUHJLRQLVOLQNHGWR FRPSDUHGZLWKJURZWKRILQ VXEUHJLRQDOVSHFLDOL]DWLRQV,Q0(5&2685FRXQWULHV 3HWUROHXPVDOHVZHUHDQLPSRUWDQWIDFWRULQWKH WKHFRQWLQXHGKLNHLQH[WHUQDOVDOHVZDVZKLOHWKH\ FRQVLGHUDEOHLQFUHDVHLQUHJLRQDOH[SRUWV6DOHVRIQHW Figure II.6 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EXTERNAL TRADE, 1995-2005 (Annual rates of variation for exports and imports; trade balance in billions of dollars) 7UDGHEDODQFH ELOOLRQVRIGROODUV ([SRUWVDQGLPSRUWV DQQXDOUDWHVRIYDULDWLRQ D ([SRUWV ,PSRUWV 7UDGHEDODQFH Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 37 SHWUROHXPH[SRUWHUVURVHE\DOPRVWGXULQJ ILJXUHVIRUWKHVHFRQG\HDULQDURZ LQDQG ZKLFKH[FHHGHGWKHLQFUHDVHUHFRUGHGLQ LQ6XEUHJLRQDOGLIIHUHQFHVDUHVLJQLILFDQWLQ 7KHLQFUHDVHLQSHWUROHXPH[SRUWVZDVDOPRVWHQWLUHO\ WKLVFRQWH[WZLWKDPRUHPDUNHGVORZGRZQRILPSRUWVLQ DWWULEXWDEOHWRSULFHLQFUHDVHV 0(5&2685FRXQWULHV GXHWRDFHUWDLQQRUPDOL]DWLRQRI 2XWRIWKH JURZWKRIUHJLRQDOH[SRUWVSRLQWV WKHLQFUHDVHLQ$UJHQWLQD¶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¶VH[SRUWYROXPHJUHZE\OHVVWKDQWKH JURZWKRI&HQWUDO$PHULFDQDQG&DULEEHDQLPSRUWV,Q DYHUDJH DQGWKHFRXQWU\¶VUHODWLYHVL]HEURXJKW 0H[LFRWKHKLJKFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQH[WHUQDOSXUFKDVHV GRZQWKHUDWHIRUWKHUHJLRQDVDZKROH2WKHUPDMRU DQGVDOHVZDVUHIOHFWHGLQWKHIDFWWKDWLPSRUWVJUHZE\ H[SRUWHUVVXFKDV&KLOHDQGWKH%ROLYDULDQ5HSXEOLFRI OHVVWKDQLQ FRPSDUHGZLWK 9HQH]XHODDOVRUHFRUGHGH[SRUWYROXPHJURZWKWKDWZDV $VVKRZQLQILJXUH,,WKHEXR\DQF\RIWKHUHJLRQ¶V EHORZWKHUHJLRQDOWRWDO H[WHUQDOWUDGHEHJDQWRIDOWHUVOLJKWO\IURPPLG ,PSRUWVDOVRH[SDQGHGVLJQLILFDQWO\LQDOWKRXJK RQZDUGV%HWZHHQDQGWKHILUVWKDOIRIWKHUH VRPHZKDWOHVVVRWKDWWKHSUHYLRXV\HDUSDUWO\EHFDXVH ZDVDYHULWDEOHUHYLYDORIH[SRUWVDQGWKHQRILPSRUWV WKHH[SDQVLRQFRQVWLWXWHGDUHFRYHU\IURPDEQRUPDOO\ORZ LQZKDWZDVDPRVWVLQJXODUSKHQRPHQRQLQWKHUHJLRQ¶V OHYHOVLQFHUWDLQFRXQWULHV,PSRUWJURZWKZDVLQGRXEOH HFRQRPLFKLVWRU\ H[SRUWJURZWKFRQVLGHUDEO\H[FHHGHGWKH Figure II.7 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, f.o.b., BY UNIT PRICE AND VOLUME, 2005 a 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSXEOLFRI 3HUX &RORPELD +DLWL (FXDGRU &KLOH %UD]LO %ROLYLD /$7,1$0(5,&$$1'7+(&$5,%%($1 8UXJXD\ $UJHQWLQD 1LFDUDJXD *XDWHPDOD 3DQDPD 0H[LFR &RVWD5LFD 7KHILJXUHVVKRZDQQXDOUDWHV RIYDULDWLRQLQWKHYDOXH (O6DOYDGRU RIH[SRUWV +RQGXUDV 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF 3DUDJXD\ 9ROXPH 3ULFH Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. 38 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure II.8 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TRENDS IN EXTERNAL TRADE, 2000-2005 a (Six-month moving averages of annual rates of variation; percentages) D ([SRUWV 1RQSHWUROHXPH[SRUWV ,PSRUWV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Estimates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reliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 39 Figure II.9 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: INTRAREGIONAL TRADE, 1997-2005 (Percentages of the total value of exports) 3HUFHQWDJHVRIWRWDOH[SRUWV D Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official quarterly figures. a Preliminary figures, based on the first nine months of the year. 2. Terms of trade %HWZHHQDQGWKHUHJLRQ¶VWHUPVRIWUDGH ZKLOHLPSRUWSULFHVURVHE\ VHHILJXUH,, DFFXPXODWHGDQLQFUHDVHRI'XULQJ 7KHH[SDQVLRQLVFRQFHQWUDWHGLQFRXQWULHVWKDW WKHLQFUHDVHZDVZKLFKZDVVRPHZKDWOHVV H[SRUWRLOPLQHUDOVDQGPHWDOVZKLOHQHWLPSRUWHUV WKDQWKHUHFRUGHGLQ7KHSRVLWLYHRYHUDOO RIHQHUJ\SURGXFWVVXIIHUHGDQHYHQVKDUSHUGHFOLQH WUHQGLVWKDQNVWRDLQFUHDVHLQH[SRUWSULFHV WKDQLQ 40 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure II.10 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TERMS OF TRADE (Percentage variation 2004 and 2005) a 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSXEOLFRI (FXDGRU &RORPELD &KLOH 3HUX %ROLYLD /$7,1$0(5,&$$1'7+(&$5,%%($1 0H[LFR %UD]LO (O6DOYDGRU 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF 3DQDPD +RQGXUDV 1LFDUDJXD *XDWHPDOD $UJHQWLQD +DLWL &RVWD5LFD 3DUDJXD\ 8UXJXD\ Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. 3. Balance-of-payments current account )RUWKHWKLUG\HDULQDURZWKHUHJLRQSRVWHGDVXUSOXV VHYHUDO&HQWUDO$PHULFDQDQG&DULEEHDQFRXQWULHVWKDWDUH RQWKHEDODQFHRISD\PHQWVFXUUHQWDFFRXQWWKLVWLPH KLJKO\GHSHQGHQWRQHQHUJ\SURGXFWLPSRUWVDOWKRXJKLQ DPRXQWLQJWR86 ELOOLRQRUWKHHTXLYDOHQWRI VRPHFDVHVWKLVZDVUHOLHYHGE\HPLJUDQWUHPLWWDQFHV RI*'3²DOPRVW86ELOOLRQPRUHWKDQLQ 7KHUHJLRQDOVXUSOXVUHVXOWHGIURPDSRVLWLYH VHHILJXUH,, 2YHUWKHODVWWKUHH\HDUVWKHDYHUDJH PHUFKDQGLVHWUDGHEDODQFHRI86ELOOLRQZKLFK FXUUHQWDFFRXQWVXUSOXVKDVUHSUHVHQWHG RI*'3 ZDVDOPRVWKLJKHUWKDQLQ7KLVFRPELQHGZLWK ZKLFKLVXQSUHFHGHQWHGLQWKHUHJLRQ¶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reliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 41 Figure II.11 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: BREAKDOWN OF CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, 1997-2005 a (Billions of dollars) &XUUHQWDFFRXQWEDODQFH 0HUFKDQGLVHWUDGHEDODQFH 6HUYLFHVWUDGHEDODQFH ,QFRPHEDODQFH 7UDQVIHUV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. Box II.1 EFFECTS OF THE RISE IN OIL PRICES ON THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ISTHMUS AND THE CARIBBEAN The Central American countries have been account deficit would have decreased Comparable information is lacking for badly affected by steeply rising prices for from 1.3% to 0.2% of GDP, instead of the Caribbean countries, but the problem petroleum and petroleum products between increasing from 4.7% to 5.8% of GDP, generated by the rise in petroleum prices 2003 and 2005. Since 2003, when the price which was what in fact occurred. Even has certainly been no less acute. In of oil rose from US$ 28.20 to US$ 35.09 including oil expenditure, however, four of order to offset the potential effects of this per barrel, the average annual price has the six countries of the isthmus were able phenomenon in the future, 13 Caribbean climbed steadily, reaching US$ 42.24 to reduce their current-account deficits in countries a signed an energy cooperation in 2004 and US$ 50.31 in 2005. Chiefly GDP terms. The increase in this indicator agreement, known as PETROCARIBE, because of this price effect, the Central was attributable to El Salvador, and, with the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. American countries’ oil bill swelled from especially, Panama. This arrangement replaces the Caracas US$ 2.386 billion in 2002 to US$ 5.199 Expenditure on oil doubled between Agreement on Energy Cooperation signed billion in 2005. Import volumes accounted 2002 and 2005 in some of the Central in 1999. Some of the main provisions of for less of the rise, with a cumulative American countries, with the steepest the new accord are: (i) lengthening of the increase of only 8.6%, or the equivalent rises in Nicaragua (121.6%), Costa Rica payment term for short-term oil import of 2.8% per year. (112.0%) and Guatemala (107.2%). The loans from 30 to 90 days; (ii) the creation The rising oil bill has undoubtedly surge in prices between 2002 and 2005 of deferred, price-linked payment systems played a part in worsening the deficit on the was equivalent to 145% of the 2005 current- for oil import loans, with two possible subregion’s balance-of-payments current account deficit in Honduras, between 45% modalities: loans for oil purchased at over account, which widened from US$ 3.659 and 56% in Costa Rica, El Salvador and US$ 40 per barrel may be paid off in 25 billion in 2002 to US$ 5.424 billion in 2005. Guatemala, and around 24% in Nicaragua years at an interest rate of 1%; and those In this period, the proportion of the deficit and Panama. For the subregion as a whole, for oil bought at less than US$ 40 per barrel accounted for by oil imports rose from the higher price of petroleum pushed up carry a term of 17 years, at a rate of 2%; 73% to 96%. In the absence of the oil bill, the oil bill by between 0.8% and 0.9% of and (iii) a general two-year moratorium for the Central American countries’ current- GDP each year from 2003 to 2005. loan payments. a Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Belize, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia and Suriname. 42 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 4. Capital flows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¶VEDVLFEDODQFHZDV WKH&DULEEHDQFRQWLQXHGWREHDQDWWUDFWLYHLQWHUQDWLRQDO LQVXUSOXVE\VRPH86ELOOLRQ RI*'3 RI LQYHVWPHQWSROHDVGHPRQVWUDWHGE\WKHSRVLWLYHWDNH ZKLFKDERXW86ELOOLRQ RI*'3 ZDVXVHG XSRILQWHUQDWLRQDOERQGLVVXHVDQGQDUURZLQWHUHVWUDWH WREXLOGXSUHVHUYHVDQGDURXQG86ELOOLRQZHQW VSUHDGV7KHSUHYDLOLQJFRQGLWLRQVDOORZHGDQXPEHU WRSD\GRZQH[WHUQDOGHEWLQFOXGLQJQHWSD\PHQWVIRU RIWKHUHJLRQ¶VFRXQWULHVWRLVVXHGHEWGHQRPLQDWHGLQ H[FHSWLRQDOILQDQFLQJDQG,0)FUHGLWV7KLVPHDQVWKDW ORFDOFXUUHQF\DVSDUWRIWKHOLDELOLW\UHVWUXFWXULQJWKH\ IRUWKHWKLUG\HDUUXQQLQJWKHUHJLRQUDQDFXUUHQWDFFRXQW XQGHUWRRNLQRUGHUWRUHGXFHWKHLUH[WHUQDOYXOQHUDELOLW\ VXUSOXVDQGUHGXFHGLWVQHWH[WHUQDOOLDELOLWLHV$OWKRXJK 7KHVHJRRGFRQGLWLRQVSUHYDLOHGGHVSLWHPRPHQWVRI WKLVUHSUHVHQWVDQHWRXWZDUGIORZRIFDSLWDOLQDFFRXQWLQJ SROLWLFDOWHQVLRQVLQDQXPEHURIFRXQWULHV WHUPVWKHRXWIORZLVQRWWKHUHVXOWRIDODFNRILQYHVWRU Figure II.12 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: BREAKDOWN OF BASIC BALANCE, 2000-2005 (Millions of dollars) &XUUHQWDFFRXQWEDODQFH 1HWIRUHLJQGLUHFWLQYHVWPHQW 3RUWIROLRDQGRWKHUW\SHVRILQYHVWPHQW ,0)DQGH[FHSWLRQDOILQDQFLQJ 5HVHUYHYDULDWLRQ Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and official figures. 2IWKLVDPRXQW86ELOOLRQFRUUHVSRQGHGWRWKH%ROLYDULDQ5HSXEOLFRI9HQH]XHOD¶VWUDQVIHURILQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHUYHVWRLWV1DWLRQDO'HYHORSPHQW )XQG,QDGGLWLRQWKHVHWRWDOVGRQRWLQFOXGHWKH,0)GHEWSD\RIIVDQQRXQFHGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQWVRI$UJHQWLQDDQG%UD]LO7KHWZRFRXQWULHV DUHWRSD\WKHLUHQWLUHGHEWWR,0) 86ELOOLRQLQWKHFDVHRI%UD]LODQG86 ELOOLRQIRU$UJHQWLQD IURPWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHLQWHUQDWLRQDO UHVHUYHVE\WKHHQGRIWKH\HDU 3URPLQHQWLQWKHFDWHJRU\RIH[FHSWLRQDOILQDQFLQJLV$UJHQWLQD¶VHQWU\ZKLFKUHIOHFWVWKHFRXQWU\¶VGHEWVZDSRSHUDWLRQ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 43 FRQILGHQFHLQWKHUHJLRQ¶VHFRQRPLHVEXWDUHIOHFWLRQRI UDWHVWRDFHUWDLQOHYHO,Q&KLOH¶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¶VQHW UHVHUYHVRUWRRNDGYDQWDJHRIIDYRXUDEOHOHQGLQJWHUPV H[WHUQDOOLDELOLWLHVSRVLWLRQ/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ WRERUURZIXQGVIRUWKDWSXUSRVH 6HYHUDOFRXQWULHV KDGLVVXHGLQWHUQDWLRQDOERQGVIRUDOPRVW86ELOOLRQ LQFOXGLQJ$UJHQWLQDDQG%UD]LODUHWDNLQJVWHSVWRUHEXLOG E\WKHHQGRI6HSWHPEHU7KLVVXPUHSUHVHQWV RIDOO DWOHDVWSDUWRIWKHLUUHVHUYHVWROHYHOVFRPSDUDEOHWRWKRVH HPHUJLQJHFRQRP\LVVXHVDQGLVRXWVWULSSHGRQO\E\WKH VHHQEHIRUHWKHVHFRXQWULHV¶UHVSHFWLYHFULVHV$QXPEHU (XURSHDQHPHUJLQJHFRQRPLHVZKLFKDFFRXQWHGIRU RIFRXQWULHVDUHDOVRVHHNLQJWRNHHSWKHLUH[FKDQJHV RIWKHWRWDO VHHILJXUH,, Figure II.13 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (Index: 2000=100 and millions of dollars) E 0(5&2685 $QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\DQG&KLOH &HQWUDO$PHULFDD 0H[LFR /DWLQ$PHULFD ULJKWKDQGD[LV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). a Central America includes Panama and the Dominican Republic. b Data up to October. 6HHILJXUH,LQWKH,QWURGXFWLRQ (VWLPDWHEDVHGRQWRWDO)',UHFHLYHGE\WKHUHJLRQPLQXVFURVVERUGHUPHUJHUVDQGDFTXLVLWLRQVFRQGXFWHGGXULQJWKH\HDU 7KHWRWDORI86ELOOLRQLQFOXGHVLVVXHVE\WKH$QGHDQ'HYHORSPHQW&RUSRUDWLRQIRUDWRWDORI86PLOOLRQDQGE\WKH&HQWUDO $PHULFDQ%DQNIRU(FRQRPLF,QWHJUDWLRQIRU86PLOOLRQ 44 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure II.14 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUES (Millions of dollars) -XQ -XQ -XQ -XQ 0DU 0DU 0DU 0DU 'HF 6HS 'HF 6HS 'HF 6HS 'HF 6HS 0RQWKO\ PRQWKPRYLQJDYHUDJH Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from Merril Lynch and J.P. Morgan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¶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¶V ODVWFRXQWU\'HEWLVVXHUVVKRZHGDQLQWHUHVWLQEUDQFKLQJ UHTXLUHPHQWVZKLOH%ROLYDULDQ5HSXEOLFRI9HQH]XHOD LQWRGLIIHUHQWFXUUHQFLHVRILVVXHDSDUWIURPRSHUDWLRQVLQ &RORPELDDQG0H[LFRSURYLGHGIRUWKHHQWLUHW\RIWKHLU WKHLURZQQDWLRQDOFXUUHQFLHV$FFRUGLQJO\0H[LFRSODFHG 3HUXSDLGVRPHRILWVGHEWWRWKH3DULV&OXEXVLQJIXQGVWKDWZHUHUDLVHGSDUWO\RQWKHGRPHVWLFPDUNHW Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 45 GHEWGHQRPLQDWHGLQ6ZLVVIUDQFVDQGERWK0H[LFRDQG WKHVHULHVDWEDVLVSRLQWV,Q$UJHQWLQDWKHJRRG 8UXJXD\FRQGXFWHGRSHUDWLRQVLQHXURV UHFHSWLRQRIWKHQHZERQGVWKDWFDPHRXWRIWKHGHEWVZDS 'HVSLWHWKHJUDGXDOULVHLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV)HGHUDO FRQFOXGHGLQ-XQHOHGWRDVWHHSGURSLQWKHFRXQWU\¶V 5HVHUYHEHQFKPDUNUDWH ZKLFKFOLPEHGWRLQ1RYHPEHU VRYHUHLJQULVNUDWLQJIURPRYHUEDVLVSRLQWVLQ UHSUHVHQWLQJDFXPXODWLYHLQFUHDVHRISHUFHQWDJH 0D\WROHYHOVFORVHWRWKRVHRI%UD]LODWDURXQGEDVLV SRLQWVVLQFH'HFHPEHU ORQJWHUPUDWHVGLGQRW SRLQWV7KLVZDVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHFKDQJHLQWKHEDVNHW EHJLQWRUHVSRQGWRPRQHWDU\SROLF\XQWLO6HSWHPEHU RIERQGVXVHGWRFDOFXODWHWKHUDWLQJIURPZKLFKWKHROG DQGFDPHWRDVWDQGVWLOODJDLQLQHDUO\1RYHPEHU2Q QRQSHUIRUPLQJERQGVZHUHHOLPLQDWHG,Q1RYHPEHU 1RYHPEHU\HDU8QLWHG6WDWHVERQGVZHUHFDUU\LQJ $UJHQWLQD¶VFRXQWU\ULVNUDWLQJVWRRGDW EDVLVSRLQWV DUDWHRIDVDJDLQVWDWWKHHQGRI-DQXDU\ DQG%UD]LO¶VDW6SUHDGVPHDVXUHGE\WKH(PHUJLQJ DQG DWWKHEHJLQQLQJRI-XQHZKLFKZDVWKH\HDU¶V 0DUNHWV%RQG,QGH[ (0%, EHJDQWRDGMXVWWRORQJ ORZHVWUDWH1RQHWKHOHVVWKHULVHZDVQRWHQRXJKWRRIIVHW WHUPUDWHVLQ2FWREHUDQG1RYHPEHUZLWKDFRXQWU\ULVN WKHVXUSOXVLQJOREDOOLTXLGLW\VRWKDWWKHGRPLQDQWSDWWHUQ UDWLQJRIEDVLVSRLQWVIRU/DWLQ$PHULFDLQERWK WKURXJKRXWWKH\HDUFRQVLVWHGRIDFWLYHUHQWVHHNLQJ,Q PRQWKV7KHVHODUJHUVSUHDGVFRXOGODVWIRUDZKLOHLI WKLVUHJDUGDQGGHVSLWHWKHSROLWLFDOWHQVLRQHYLGHQWLQ ORQJWHUPUDWHVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVFRQWLQXHWRDGMXVWWR VRPHFRXQWULHVWKHUHJLRQ¶VLQWHUHVWUDWHVSUHDGVUHPDLQHG WKHWLJKWPRQHWDU\SROLF\EHLQJGHSOR\HGWKHUHDQGLIWKH\ DWKLVWRULFDOO\ORZOHYHOV VHHILJXUHV,,DQG,, ZHUHWRIRUPWKHEDVLVIRUDQLQWHUQDWLRQDOWUHQGZKLFK ,QWHUHVWUDWHVSUHDGVIROORZHGDJHQHUDOGRZQZDUGWUHQG ZRXOGUHGXFHLQYHVWRUV¶DSSHWLWHIRUILQDQFLDODVVHWVIURP LQDQGLQ6HSWHPEHUUHFRUGHGWKHORZHVWYDOXHRI HPHUJLQJHFRQRPLHV Figure II.15 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: COUNTRY RISK MEASURED BY EMERGING MARKETS BOND INDEX (EMBI+) (Basis points) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from J.P. Morgan. ,Q(FXDGRUWKHVSUHDGMXPSHGE\EDVLVSRLQWVEHWZHHQ0DUFKDQG0D\RZLQJWRSROLWLFDOLQVWDELOLW\LQWKHFRXQWU\EXWUDSLGO\UHJDLQHG WKHGRZQZDUGWUHQGVHHQKLWKHUWRVLPLODUO\WRWKHRWKHUFRXQWULHVRIWKHUHJLRQ 46 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure II.16 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (SELECTED COUNTRIES): COUNTRY RISK MEASURED BY EMERGING MARKETS BOND INDEX (EMBI+) (Basis points) $UJHQWLQD %UD]LO 0H[LFR 3HUX 8UXJXD\ D 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSRI Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from J.P.Morgan. a Uruguay’s country risk is measured by the Uruguay Bond Index (UBI). Box II.2 A BRIEF ANALYSIS OF RECENT SOVEREIGN DEBT ISSUES IN LOCAL CURRENCY The fact that emerging economies have debt in the Latin American and Caribbean The Government Bond Index-Emerging difficulty in issuing external debt in their countries. Eichengreen, Hausmann and Markets (GBI-EM) lists instruments from own currency has been signalled as Paniza have argued that this difficulty is 16 emerging economies, including 4 from a factor that worsens macroeconomic all the more acute in developing countries, Latin America: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and adjustment problems when disequilibria over 95% of whose debt instruments are Mexico. The region accounts for around occur in the external accounts.a When a issued in foreign currency. 10% of this type of debt.d country’s external debt is denominated In view of the consequences of In the last three years, Brazil, Chile, in a foreign currency, a real depreciation adjusting to external disequilibria, emerging Colombia, Mexico and Uruguay have all increases the burden (in local currency) economies have made major efforts to issued local-currency sovereign debt of servicing that debt, which, in turn, overcome this difficulty and in recent on the external markets. The potential compresses all other expenditures and years have stepped up their local-currency benefits of developing such a market increases potential output and employment issues, seeking to interest international have led a number of regional multilateral losses, as occurred in a number of Latin investors in two ways: by making the organizations, including the Inter-American American countries during the crises that domestic debt market more attractive and Development Bank (IDB) and the Andean broke out at the start of this decade. b by issuing external debt in local currency. Development Corporation, to add their Hence, foreign-currency debt issuance As part of the first of these strategies, own efforts to deepen this market in the appears to be a procyclical factor that Brazil and Mexico have facilitated access last few years. In April 2005, IDB issued worsens the consequences of measures to foreign investors by developing and a bond denominated in Mexican pesos. needed to correct external disequilibria. deepening local debt markets. In Brazil, This was followed by issues in Colombian Such consequences could be lessened 4% of locally-issued government bonds are pesos and Brazilian reais, as well as by issuing external debt in local currency, held by foreigners, while in Mexico 70% of bonds in unidades de fomento (UF), which should thus be a fundamental 20-year bonds are foreign held.c An index a unit of account employed in Chile’s principle for the management of external was recently created for this type of debt. capital markets. The Andean Development Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 47 Box II.2 (concluded) Corporation concluded its first issue in issuer in the Bogotá stock exchange for expectations of local currency appreciation, the local currency of a member country, this transaction. which has heightened their attraction as Colombia, in 2004, for the equivalent of Local-currency issues of external debt an investment instrument. US$ 100 million with a maturity of 6.5 have occurred in a context of low interest The following table contains information years. IDB was registered as a multilateral rates in global markets, coupled with on a number of debt issues: Cost with respect Cost with respect Cost of issue to dollar bonds to local bonds Issue and Millions of Issuer Description maturity dollars Coupon Yield at Bond Higher or lower Higher or lower rate issue yield in relative cost relative cost (%) * dollars (basis points)** (basis points)** 2003-2206 Uruguay 201 Real rate 10.500 n/a n/a n/a n/a 2004-2006 Uruguay 250 Nominal rate 17.750 17.750 10.596 715 n/a 2004-2010 Colombia 375 Nominal rate 11.750 11.875 7.020 486 -50 2005-2010 Colombia 125 Nominal rate 11.750 10.750 6.986 376 -31 2005-2015 Colombia 325 Nominal rate 12.000 12.125 7.725 440 -25 2005-2016 Brazil 1 479 Nominal rate 12.500 12.750 7.515 524 n/a 2005-2010 IDB 65 Real rate 2.150 2.150 n/a n/a 10 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of data from Bloomberg. * Indicator, index or percentage determining yield payments, contractually established under the bond sale conditions. ** Basis points. Clearly, the maturities of the debt issues several cases. In the case of Brazil alone, A similar procedure was used to by Uruguay and the first two by Colombia a certain amount of controversy arose with compare external issues in local currency are quite short by the standards of long- respect to the yield at issue, which caused with offerings made on the domestic term financial investors in the international the bond’s yields to fluctuate strongly the market. As the figures for Colombia markets. The magnitude of the issues was next day in the secondary markets. illustrate, generally speaking, external also relatively small, with the exception of The table above shows the yields of market issuances involved lower costs Brazil’s, which, moreover, had a maturity bonds in dollars with similar maturities to than similar operations in the domestic of 10 years (longer than debt instruments local-currency offerings, in order to compare market, although the outcomes of these issued on the local market). The dictates of the relative merits of local-currency and yield-based comparisons differ little after international practice indicate that a bond dollar-denominated bond issues, from taxes are deducted. Briefly, then, the higher issue must be worth no less than US$ 500 a strictly financial point of view (which cost of the domestic market appears to million and have a maturity of at least 10 does not necessarily equate with the be chiefly a function of taxes and other years if it is to be considered a useful most suitable criteria on which to base imperfections that limit market integration. market benchmark. The issues described management of the overall process, since The outcome was certainly beneficial from above may therefore be categorized as the aim is to develop a market that can the point of view of the issuers, since they enterprising and fairly cautious attempts avoid future macroeconomic problems). were able to borrow at a lower cost and to establish a track record that could, in An estimate of the additional cost (in basis maintain a better debt profile in terms of the future, help to secure access to larger points) incurred by issuing international currency alignment. For Brazil, the external issues and longer maturities. There can be debt in local currency was obtained by issue was made at longer maturities than no doubt that they are making an important using each market’s swap curve to express can be achieved in the domestic market. contribution in this regard. the yield of the similar dollar bond in local This may be a first step towards gaining The fact that these bonds were sold currency, then subtracting this figure from better access to the international market at yields close to face value indicates that the yield of the local-currency bonds. by using local currencies. Conversely, the the conditions offered were acceptable and As this exercise shows, the additional cost of the issue conducted by IDB was demand was sufficient, partly because of the cost involved in using local currency to slightly higher than that of selling debt in external circumstances mentioned. Indeed, issue debt on the external market was Chile, which explains in part why Chile has the offerings were heavily oversubscribed in quite high. not made use of this instrument. a This problem has been coined “original sin”, a term attributed to Eichengreen, Hausmann and Paniza, based on their work entitled, “The pain of original sin”, Eichengreen and Hausmann (eds.), Debt Denomination and Financial Instability in Emerging-Market Economies, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 2005. b See R. Martner and V. Tromben, “La sostenibilidad de la deuda pública, el efecto bola de nieve y el “pecado original””, Gestión Pública series N° 46 (LC/L.2150-P), Santiago, Chile, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), June 2004. c See International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability Report, Washington, D.C., April 2005. d See “Mercados emergentes: ¿hacia el fin del “pecado original”?”, Latinwatch America [online] Research Department, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) 2005: Chapter III Macroeconomic policy A. Fiscal policy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¶V*RYHUQPHQWVKDYH FRQWLQXHGWR\LHOGSRVLWLYHSULPDU\EDODQFHVLQWKH/DWLQ DYRLGHGVOLSSLQJLQWRWKHWUDGLWLRQDOSDWWHUQRIH[SDQVLRQDU\ $PHULFDQDQG&DULEEHDQFRXQWULHV VSHQGLQJRQWKHEDFNRIEHWWHUPDFURHFRQRPLFLQGLFDWRUV 7KHLPSURYHPHQWLQILVFDODJJUHJDWHVKDVKHOSHG 7KHVHWZRIDFWRUVWUDQVODWHGLQWRDODUJHSULPDU\VXUSOXV WROHVVHQWKHUHJLRQ¶VH[WHUQDOYXOQHUDELOLW\7KLVLV ZKLFKZDVFKDQQHOOHGPDLQO\LQWRGHEWSD\GRZQV PDQLIHVWHGHVVHQWLDOO\LQLWVGHEWLQGLFDWRUVDQGLV )LVFDOSHUIRUPDQFHGLGH[KLELWDQXPEHURISDUWLFXODU WKHUHVXOWRIDFRPELQDWLRQRIIDFWRUVDPRQJZKLFK WUDLWVLQKRZHYHU:KLOHUHYHQXHVFRQWLQXHGWRH[SDQG *RYHUQPHQWGHFLVLRQVDQGWKHWUDLWVRIWKHEXVLQHVV IHGE\LQFRPHIURPSULPDU\JRRGVVHFWRUVIXQGDPHQWDOO\ F\FOHILJXUHSURPLQHQWO\ 50 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 1. The fiscal aggregates 7KLVSHUIRUPDQFHZLOOHQDEOHWKHFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWVWR LQWHUHVWRQWKHSXEOLFGHEW WKHGHILFLWZLOOQDUURZIURP DFKLHYHDSULPDU\VXUSOXVRIRI*'3 PHDVXUHGDVD WRRI*'3%DVHGRQWKHEXGJHWVGUDZQXSE\ VLPSOHDYHUDJH DWWKHHQGRIFRPSDUHGZLWK WKHFRXQWULHVRIWKHUHJLRQWKHVHKLJKSULPDU\VXUSOXVHV LQ7DNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHRYHUDOOGHILFLW LQFOXGLQJ VKRXOGFRQWLQXHLQ RI*'3 Table III.1 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FISCAL INDICATORS a (Percentages of GDP at current prices) Public debt b Primary balance Overall balance Central government NFPS 2002 2003 2004 c 2005 d 2002 2003 2004 c 2005 d 2002 2003 2004 2005 2002 2003 2004 2005 Latin America and the Caribbean Simple average -0.5 -0.2 0.7 1.1 -3.3 -3.0 -1.8 -1.6 56.1 54.5 50.3 42.9 61.3 59.1 53.3 45.9 Weighted average 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.3 -3.6 -1.8 -0.7 -0.9 48.2 46.5 42.9 34.6 64.8 58.2 53.7 44.1 MEROCOSUR e 0.4 1.7 2.8 2.2 -3.7 -1.8 0.0 -0.9 86.3 78.4 68.4 49.4 104.7 87.5 76.4 56.2 MERCOSUR + Chile e 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.6 -3.2 -1.5 0.4 0.0 72.2 65.3 56.9 41.3 88.2 74.0 64.6 48.1 Andean Community e -1.0 -0.5 0.1 0.4 -4.2 -3.8 -2.8 -2.6 56.2 57.6 53.4 49.0 61.7 63.9 58.3 53.4 Oil-exporting countries e 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 -2.4 -2.4 -1.5 -1.5 51.1 47.9 44.0 41.6 48.7 48.8 42.9 40.1 Other countries e -2.7 -1.9 -0.9 -0.4 -5.3 -4.8 -3.7 -3.4 57.8 60.8 56.5 51.4 74.7 79.1 73.8 66.6 Mexico 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.6 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 24.0 24.2 23.3 22.6 27.5 27.6 26.1 25.4 Central America e -0.5 -0.7 -0.1 0.4 -3.0 -3.4 -2.6 -2.3 70.2 71.0 64.0 58.7 71.7 72.8 65.8 60.4 Argentina f 1.8 2.2 3.3 3.2 -0.3 0.3 2.0 1.3 145.9 138.2 126.4 68.5 184.4 144.8 132.5 72.7 Bolivia g -6.9 -5.3 -3.1 -0.5 -9.0 -7.9 -5.7 -3.5 76.3 84.5 79.2 70.2 78.0 90.7 85.0 75.2 Brazil h 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.5 -6.4 -2.5 -1.3 -1.7 41.7 37.2 34.0 34.0 65.5 58.7 54.2 51.9 Chile -0.1 0.7 3.1 4.3 -1.2 -0.4 2.2 3.4 15.7 13.1 10.9 9.0 22.2 19.7 17.1 15.4 Colombia i -1.0 -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 -4.9 -4.7 -4.3 -5.5 50.3 50.6 46.9 44.9 71.5 67.4 62.5 58.1 Costa Rica 0.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 -4.3 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 40.8 40.0 41.2 36.2 45.4 46.4 48.4 41.4 Ecuador 2.6 2.6 1.6 1.3 -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 -1.4 51.1 47.9 44.0 41.6 55.6 51.8 47.1 44.4 El Salvador -1.6 -0.8 0.9 1.6 -3.1 -2.7 -1.1 -0.6 35.2 37.5 38.0 37.0 38.3 40.9 40.8 39.7 Guatemala 0.3 -1.1 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -2.3 -1.0 -1.8 16.4 18.4 18.8 18.0 17.5 19.4 19.6 18.6 Haiti -2.2 -2.7 -1.6 -0.8 -3.0 -3.5 -2.4 -1.5 60.3 57.6 46.7 46.7 66.6 63.6 51.3 51.3 Honduras -3.4 -4.4 -1.8 -1.6 -5.3 -5.6 -3.1 -3.0 66.3 70.3 68.5 58.9 65.8 69.5 68.4 59.5 Mexico j 0.9 1.7 1.9 2.6 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 24.0 24.2 23.3 22.6 27.5 27.6 26.1 25.4 Nicaragua -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -2.5 -2.8 -2.2 -2.0 193.5 193.1 147.4 136.8 193.9 193.4 147.6 137.0 Panama 2.2 0.6 -1.3 1.5 -1.9 -3.8 -5.6 -3.3 69.0 66.6 70.0 65.3 69.4 67.0 70.2 66.3 Paraguay k -1.7 0.9 2.8 0.7 -3.2 -0.4 1.6 -0.5 59.2 43.9 38.4 32.0 63.0 46.3 40.1 33.6 Peru -0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 -2.1 -1.8 -1.3 -1.2 46.8 47.3 43.3 39.1 Dominican Republic -1.4 -3.3 -1.0 1.0 -2.7 -5.2 -3.0 -0.8 23.9 44.2 25.3 24.8 Uruguay -0.8 1.1 2.4 2.3 -4.9 -4.6 -2.5 -2.5 98.7 94.3 74.7 63.2 106.0 100.4 78.9 66.8 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 0.6 0.3 1.8 2.0 -4.0 -4.4 -1.9 -1.5 41.9 45.8 38.7 35.8 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Includes social security. b At 31 December each year, using the average exchange rate applicable to external debt. For 2005, the latest available data were used. The public debt shown for the Dominican Republic includes external debt only. c Preliminary estimate. d Official targets. e Simple average. f National administration. g General government. h Federal Government and central bank, except in 2005 when only Federal Government debt is included. i National central government. The balances do not include adjustments for accruals, floating debt or the cost of financial restructuring. j Public sector. k Central administration. $VDZHLJKWHGDYHUDJHWKHSULPDU\VXUSOXVURVHIURPRI*'3LQWRLQ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 51 7KHLPSURYHPHQWLQWKHFRXQWULHV¶ILVFDOEDODQFHV ZKHQWKHFRXQWULHVDSSHDUWREHDGMXVWLQJVSHQGLQJ LQUHVXOWHGIURPWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIDKHIW\ RQFHDJDLQWR*'3 LQFUHDVHLQILVFDOUHYHQXHVZLWKUHVSHFWWR*'3DQG 2QWKHLQFRPHVLGHWKLVSHUIRUPDQFHUHIOHFWVWKH VSHQGLQJWKDWURVHRQDYHUDJHPRUHVORZO\WKDQWKH H[SDQVLRQRIHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\ZKLFKKDVIDFLOLWDWHGDQ UHJLRQ¶VRXWSXWJURZWKZKLFKKDVEURXJKWLWGRZQLQ XSVZLQJLQSXEOLFUHFHLSWV,QDGGLWLRQWKHKLJKHUSULFHV *'3WHUPV VHHWDEOH,,,RIWKH(FRQRPLF6XUYH\ EHLQJIHWFKHGE\DQXPEHURIWKHFRPPRGLWLHVLQZKLFK RI/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ VRPHRIWKHUHJLRQ¶VFRXQWULHVVSHFLDOL]H HVSHFLDOO\ $OWKRXJKWKHSUHOLPLQDU\GDWDIRUFRQILUPWKH K\GURFDUERQVDQGPLQHUDOV KDYHVZHOOHGILVFDOUHVRXUFHV FRXQWULHV¶FRQWLQXHGSURSHQVLW\WRJHQHUDWHSULPDU\ VXEVWDQWLDOO\HVSHFLDOO\LQ$VDPDWWHURIIDFW VXUSOXVHVWKLVVHHPVWREHDWWULEXWDEOHPRUHWKDQ FRPSDUHGZLWKWKHILJXUHVIRUWKHVHVHFWRUV¶HVWLPDWHG LQWRLQFUHDVHGILVFDOLQFRPH,QIDFWDYHUDJH UHFHLSWVIRUUHSUHVHQWDQLQFUHDVHRIEHWZHHQ ILVFDOUHYHQXHVHVWLPDWHGIRUDQGFRQWLQXH DQGRI*'3LQWKH%ROLYDULDQ5HSXEOLFRI9HQH]XHOD WREHWKHKLJKHVWHYHUUHFRUGHGLQWKHUHJLRQDWDWLPH %ROLYLD&KLOH(FXDGRUDQG0H[LFR Figure III.1 LATIN AMERICA (6 COUNTRIES): PROPORTION OF FISCAL INCOME FROM NON-RENEWABLE SOURCES (Percentages of fiscal income) %ROLYLD &KLOH &RORPELD (FXDGRU 0H[LFR 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSRI Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. Note: The data for Bolivia and Ecuador correspond to general government and NFPS accounts, respectively. For the rest of the countries shown, the figures refer to central government accounts only. 52 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) ,WZLOOEHUHFDOOHGPRUHRYHUWKDWWKHFHQWUDO 0XFKRIWKLVLVWKDQNVWRWKHLPSURYHPHQWLQWKHDFFRXQWV JRYHUQPHQWILVFDOEDODQFHLVQRWHQWLUHO\UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RIWKHVXEQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWVLQWKRVHIRXUFRXQWULHV,Q LQWKHFDVHRIWKRVHFRXQWULHVRIWKHUHJLRQZKRVH $UJHQWLQD%UD]LODQG&RORPELDWKHVXEQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWV¶ SXEOLFVHFWRUVDUHPRUHGHFHQWUDOL]HG7DNLQJLQWR SULPDU\EDODQFHIRUZDVRYHURI*'3,QDOOWKUHH DFFRXQWWKHEURDGHUSXEOLFVHFWRUDFFRXQWVLQ FDVHVWKHVHDUHWKHKLJKHVWYDOXHVLQWKHVHULHVVWDUWLQJLQ $UJHQWLQD%UD]LO&RORPELDDQG0H[LFRWKH1)36 ,Q%UD]LO¶VVXEQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWVZLOOFRQWLQXH SULPDU\EDODQFHPRYHGRQDYHUDJHIURPRI WRLPSURYHWKHLUEDODQFHVZKLOHWKRVHRI$UJHQWLQDDQG *'3LQWRLQDQGDQHVWLPDWHG &RORPELDZLOODJDLQUHWXUQSULPDU\DQGRYHUDOOVXUSOXVHV LQ WKRXJKRIDVPDOOHUPDJQLWXGHWKDQLQ Figure III.2 LATIN AMERICA (4 COUNTRIES): NFPS PRIMARY BALANCE (Percentages of GDP) $UJHQWLQD %UD]LO &RORPELD 0H[LFR 6LPSOHDYHUDJH FRXQWULHV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. ,QWKHILUVWPRQWKVRI -DQXDU\WR2FWREHU %UD]LO¶VVWDWHVDQGPXQLFLSDOLWLHVUHWXUQHGDSULPDU\VXUSOXVRIRI*'3ZKLFKZDV PRUHWKDQWKHVXUSOXVIRUWKH\HDUHDUOLHUSHULRG Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 53 Figure III.3 LATIN AMERICA (4 COUNTRIES): SUBNATIONAL GOVERNMENT INCOME, EXPENDITURE AND PRIMARY BALANCES, 1996-2004 (Percentages of GDP) $5*(17,1$ %5$=,/ D D &2/20%,$ 0(;,&2 D D 7RWDOLQFRPH 7RWDOH[SHQGLWXUH 3ULPDU\EDODQFH Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. $VVKRZQLQILJXUH,,,WKHILVFDOGHYHORSPHQWVRI VR$UJHQWLQDDQG%UD]LODUHVWLOOFDUU\LQJDVXEQDWLRQDO WKHODVWIHZ\HDUVKDYHEURXJKWDERXWDVXEVWDQWLDOGURS GHEWRIEHWZHHQDQGRI*'3UHSUHVHQWLQJD LQWKHVXEQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWV¶GHEWWR*'3UDWLRV(YHQ VLJQLILFDQWSRUWLRQRIHDFKFRXQWU\¶V1)36GHEW 54 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure III.4 LATIN AMERICA (4 COUNTRIES): SUBNATIONAL GOVERNMENT DEBT (Percentages of GDP) 25 20 15 10 5 0 a 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Argentina Brazil Colombia Mexico Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. 2. The public debt $VPHQWLRQHGLQWKHLQWURGXFWLRQWRWKLVFKDSWHUWKH )LJXUH,,,VKRZVDFRPSDULVRQRIWKHZD\GHEW LPSURYHPHQWLQWKHSULPDU\EDODQFHLVQRWWKHVROHFDXVH LQGLFDWRUVKDYHHYROYHGLQDJURXSRIWKHUHJLRQ¶V RIWKHGHFUHDVHLQWKHUHJLRQ¶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¶ VXEUHJLRQVKRZHYHUWKHRYHUDOOILJXUHVPDVNYDU\LQJ GHEWWR*'3UDWLRKDVULVHQLQWKLVSHULRG SHUIRUPDQFHV 6HH,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQHWDU\)XQG:RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRN:DVKLQJWRQ'& Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 55 Figure III.5 PUBLIC DEBT IN LATIN AMERICA, EMERGING ECONOMIES AND INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES (Percentages of GDP) ,QGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHV /DWLQ$PHULFD (PHUJLQJHFRQRPLHV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and the International Monetary Fund. Figure III.6 TRENDS IN PUBLIC DEBT IN INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, EMERGING ECONOMIES AND LATIN AMERICA, 2000-2005 (Percentages of GDP) (PHUJLQJPDUNHWV (PHUJLQJ$VLD /DWLQ$PHULFD $IULFDDQGWKH0LGGOH &HQWUDODQG(DVWHUQ (DVW (XURSH 7RWDOFKDQJHLQGHEW 3ULPDU\EDODQFH 'LIIHUHQWLDOEHWZHHQ*'3JURZWKUDWHDQGUDWHRILQWHUHVW 2WKHUIDFWRUV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and International Monetary Fund. 56 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) $SDUWIURPWKHGURSLQWKHLUGHEWWR*'3UDWLRVWKH UHSODFHGPRVWRILWVUHDOL]DEOH%UDG\ERQGVLQFLUFXODWLRQ UHJLRQ¶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igure III.7 LATIN AMERICA (18 COUNTRIES): CHANGES IN PUBLIC DEBT BALANCES, BY CREDITOR, 1990-2004 (Percentages of GDP, simple averages, not including Nicaragua) 'RPHVWLFSXEOLFGHEW ([WHUQDOSXEOLFGHEW Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. Note: The data for Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Uruguay correspond to the non-financial public sector accounts. 6HH1RXULHO5RXELQL³7KHHQGRI³2ULJLQDO6LQ´ %UD]LOLVVXHVORQJWHUPORFDOFXUUHQF\GHQRPLQDWHGERQGVLQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHW´ >RQOLQH@KWWS ZZZUJHPRQLWRUFRPEORJURXELQL6HSWHPEHU Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 57 Figure III.8 LOCAL-CURRENCY-DENOMINATED BONDS AS A PROPORTION OF TOTAL GOVERNMENT BONDS (Percentages) %UD]LO &KLOH &RORPELD 0H[LFR 3HU~ 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSRI Source: Sebastián Briozzo, “The importance of going local: shifting away from foreign currency sovereign debt in Latin America”, New York, Standard & Poors, 2005. 7KHVPDOOHUILQDQFLQJUHTXLUHPHQWLPSOLHGE\ ,QIDFWRIWKHUHJLRQ¶VVL[ODUJHVWFRXQWULHVLQ*'3 WKLVILVFDOSHUIRUPDQFHDGGHGWRWKH*RYHUQPHQWV¶ WHUPV $UJHQWLQD%ROLYDULDQ5HSXEOLFRI9HQH]XHOD EXLOGXSRIUHVHUYHVDQGWKHLULQWHUHVWLQGHPRQVWUDWLQJ %UD]LO&KLOH&RORPELDDQG0H[LFR RQO\&RORPELD WKHLURZQFRPPLWPHQW ZLWKRXWWKHFRQGLWLRQDOLWLHV KDGDVWDQGE\DJUHHPHQWLQSODFHDWWKHHQGRI LQKHUHQWLQDOHWWHURILQWHQW WRPDLQWDLQLQJILVFDO ,QWKLVFRQQHFWLRQLQ'HFHPEHUWKH%UD]LOLDQ VROYHQF\UHGXFHGWKHLQFHQWLYHVWRFRQFOXGHVWDQGE\ DXWKRULWLHVDQQRXQFHGWKHLULQWHQWLRQWRSUHSD\WKH DUUDQJHPHQWVZLWK,0)DVGLVFXVVHGLQ(FRQRPLF FRXQWU\¶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³,0)¶VFORXWDQGUHOHYDQFHZDQHDVQDWLRQVWXUQWRRWKHUOHQGHUV´ >RQOLQH@KWWS ZZZEORRPEHUJFRPDSSVQHZV"SLG VLG D*$;EY$U$ UHIHU ODWLQBDPHULFD %UDG6HWVHU³,VWKH,0)KHDGLQJWRZDUGLUUHOHYDQFHEHFDXVHRIDUHYLYDOLQSULYDWHFDSLWDOIORZV"´ >RQOLQH@KWWS ZZZUJHPRQLWRUFRPEORJVHWVHU %DQFRGH(VSDxD,QIRUPHVHPHVWUDOGHHFRQRPtDODWLQRDPHULFDQD1RYHPEHU $QRRS6LQJK³*OREDO&RQWH[WDQG5HJLRQDO2XWORRNIRU/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ´>RQOLQH@KWWS ZZZLPIRUJH[WHUQDOQS VSHHFKHVKWP2FWREHU 58 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 3. Subregional panorama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igure III.9 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PRIMARY BALANCE OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, BY SUBREGION, 1990-2005 (Percentages of GDP) 6LPSOHDYHUDJH 0(5&2685 $QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\ &HQWUDO$PHULFDQ&RPPRQ0DUNHW Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 59 Figure III.10 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC DEBT, BY SUBREGION, 1990-2005 (Percentages of GDP) 6LPSOHDYHUDJH 0(5&2685 $QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\ &HQWUDO$PHULFDQ&RPPRQ0DUNHW Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. Figure III.11 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: VARIATION IN PUBLIC DEBT BETWEEN 2002 AND 2005, BY SUBREGION (Percentages of GDP) 0(5&2685 $QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\ &HQWUDO$PHULFDQ&RPPRQ0DUNHW 7RWDOFKDQJHLQGHEW 3ULPDU\EDODQFH 'LIIHUHQWLDOEHWZHHQ*'3JURZWKUDWHDQGUDWHRILQWHUHVW 2WKHUIDFWRUV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. 60 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure III.12 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TOTAL INCOME OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, BY SUBREGION, 1990-2004 (Percentages of GDP) 6LPSOHDYHUDJH 0(5&2685 $QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\ &HQWUDO$PHULFDQ&RPPRQ0DUNHW Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. ,QWKH$QGHDQVXEUHJLRQDGLVWLQFWLRQPXVWEH 7KH\FRQWLQXHWRUHWXUQDFRQVLGHUDEOHRYHUDOOGHILFLW PDGHEHWZHHQWKHRLOSURGXFLQJFRXQWULHVDQGWKH KRZHYHURIRYHURI*'37KHGHFOLQHLQ&HQWUDO QRQRLOSURGXFHUV7KHSHWUROHXPSURGXFLQJFRXQWULHV $PHULFD¶VGHEWWR*'3UDWLRLVFKLHIO\DUHIOHFWLRQRIWKH DUHFRQWLQXLQJWRJHQHUDWHKHIW\SULPDU\VXUSOXVHV GURSLQ1LFDUDJXD¶VGHEWDIWHUWKHFRXQWU\JDLQHGDFFHVV WKDQNVHVVHQWLDOO\WRVWHHSO\ULVLQJILVFDOUHFHLSWV WRWKH+HDYLO\,QGHEWHG3RRU&RXQWULHV +,3& ,QLWLDWLYH IURPWKHK\GURFDUERQVVHFWRUDOWKRXJKLQ(FXDGRUWKH XQGHUZKLFKPXFKRILWVOLDELOLWLHVZHUHZULWWHQRII VXUSOXVLVWHQGLQJWRGHFUHDVH$VUHJDUGVWKHUHVWRIWKH &HQWUDO$PHULFDH[KLELWVGLIIHUHQFHVQRWRQO\LQ VXEUHJLRQ%ROLYLDKDVVLJQLILFDQWO\QDUURZHGLWVILVFDO LWVILVFDOEDODQFHVEXWDOVRLQWKHZD\WKHDGMXVWPHQWV GHILFLW &RORPELD¶VFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWLVUXQQLQJD KDYHFRPHDERXWLQWKHODVWIHZ\HDUV$EUHDNGRZQRI VXEVWDQWLDOGHILFLWEXWWKHGHFHQWUDOL]HGERGLHVUHWXUQHG VSHQGLQJVKRZVWZRGLIIHUHQWSKHQRPHQDLQYROYHGLQWKLV DVXUSOXVWKDWLPSURYHVWKHFRQVROLGDWHGDFFRXQWV DQG SDWWHUQ:KHUHDVLQ6RXWK$PHULFDWKHGLSLQVSHQGLQJLV 3HUXKDVDOVRSXWLWVSXEOLFDFFRXQWVRQDVXEVWDQWLDOO\ WKHUHVXOWRIEHORZ*'3JURZWKLQH[SHQGLWXUHVRQVWDII EHWWHUIRRWLQJ DQGSHQVLRQVLQ&HQWUDO$PHULFDLWKDVEHHQFDXVHGE\ 7KH&HQWUDO$PHULFDQFRXQWULHVZHUHDEOHWREULQJ DGURSLQFDSLWDOVSHQGLQJLQUHODWLRQWR*'3 VHHILJXUHV WKHVXEUHJLRQ¶VSULPDU\EDODQFHWRHTXLOLEULXPLQ ,,,,,,DQG,,, Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 61 Figure III.13 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON STAFF, 1997-2004 (Simple averages, as percentages of GDP) 6LPSOHDYHUDJH 0(5&2685 $QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\ &HQWUDO$PHULFDQ&RPPRQ0DUNHW Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. 62 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure III.14 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE, 1997-2004 (Simple averages, as percentages of GDP) 6LPSOHDYHUDJH 0(5&2685 $QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\ &HQWUDO$PHULFDQ&RPPRQ0DUNHW Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 63 Figure III.15 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT INTEREST PAYMENTS, 1997-2004 (Simple averages, as percentages of GDP) 6LPSOHDYHUDJH 0(5&2685 $QGHDQ&RPPXQLW\ &HQWUDO$PHULFDQ&RPPRQ0DUNHW Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official information. 4. Summary and conclusions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¶VH[WHUQDOYXOQHUDELOLW\. 8QOLNH WRWKHIDYRXUDEOHHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQVSUHYDLOLQJLQ SUHYLRXVHSLVRGHVLQWKHUHJLRQWKHJRYHUQPHQWVKDYH WKHVHVWUDWHJLHVKDYHOHVVHQHGWKHUHJLRQ¶VW\SLFDO DYRLGHGVKLIWLQJWRDPRUHH[SDQVLRQDU\ILVFDOVWDQFH GLFKRWRP\EHWZHHQORQJWHUPILVFDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\DQGWKH 64 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean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¶VSXEOLFVHFWRUVQDPHO\WKH IXOILOWKHSXUSRVHIRUZKLFKWKH\ZHUHGHVLJQHG ORZOHYHORISXEOLFLQYHVWPHQWWKHQHHGWRLPSURYHWKH /DVWO\PDQ\RIWKHUHJLRQ¶VFRXQWULHVVWLOOFDUU\D SURYLVLRQRIVRFLDOVHUYLFHVDQGWKHQHHGWRUHPHG\WKH YHU\ODUJHGHEWLQUHODWLRQWRWKHLU*'37KXVJLYHQWKH VHULRXVFRYHUDJHDQGVROYHQF\SUREOHPVREVHUYHGLQ K\SRWKHVLVRILQWHUQDWLRQDOFRQGLWLRQVVKDSHGE\ORZHU VRFLDOVHFXULW\V\VWHPV JURZWKUDWHVDQGKLJKHULQWHUHVWWKHUHJLRQ¶VJRYHUQPHQWV $SURPLQHQWLWHPRQWKHOLVWRIRXWVWDQGLQJWDVNVLV VKRXOGFRQWLQXHWRLPSOHPHQWILVFDOSUXGHQFHPHDVXUHV IRUWKHK\GURFDUERQVH[SRUWLQJFRXQWULHVWRILQGZD\V DLPHGDWIXUWKHUUHGXFLQJWKHGHEWWR*'3UDWLR B. Exchange-rate policy 1. The situation in the region 'XULQJWKHILUVWPRQWKVRIWKHUHJLRQ¶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¶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¶V 6WDWHVGROODU H[WUDUHJLRQDOHIIHFWLYHH[FKDQJHUDWHGHFOLQHGE\ 7KHQRPLQDOH[FKDQJHUDWHIRUDIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\LVGHILQHGDVWKHQXPEHURIXQLWVRIDJLYHQFRXQWU\¶VFXUUHQF\WKDWPXVWEHVXUUHQGHUHG LQH[FKDQJHIRURQHXQLWRIWKHIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\DWDQ\JLYHQSRLQWLQWLPH$FRXQWU\¶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reliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 65 VLJQLI\LQJDFXUUHQF\DSSUHFLDWLRQ EXWLWVWRWDOHIIHFWLYH LQHDFKVXEUHJLRQDWWKHHQGRI6RXWK$PHULFD¶V H[FKDQJHUDWHFOLPEHGRZLQJWRWKHHIIHFWVRIWUDGHZLWK H[WUDUHJLRQDOHIIHFWLYHH[FKDQJHUDWHZDVDOPRVW RWKHUFRXQWULHVHVSHFLDOO\%UD]LOZKRVHFXUUHQFLHVURVH KLJKHUDWWKHDJJUHJDWHOHYHOWKDQWKHDYHUDJHIRUWKH VWURQJO\LQUHDOWHUPV7KLVIDFWRUDOVRXQGHUSLQVWKH V7KHDYHUDJHIRU&HQWUDO$PHULFD0H[LFRDQGWKH ODUJHWRWDOUHDOHIIHFWLYHGHSUHFLDWLRQVUHFRUGHGLQ%ROLYLD &DULEEHDQLVORZHUWKDQLQWKHUHIHUHQFHSHULRG)LJXUH DQG3DUDJXD\ LQWRJHWKHUZLWKWKH ,,,VKRZVHDFKFRXQWU\¶VWRWDOHIIHFWLYHH[FKDQJHUDWH OLPLWHGH[WUDUHJLRQDOHIIHFWLYHGHSUHFLDWLRQV DQG LQFRPSDUHGZLWKLWVDYHUDJHIRUWKH V7KH UHVSHFWLYHO\ UHJLVWHUHGLQWKRVHFRXQWULHV7KLVLV ILJXUHVKRZVWKDWGHVSLWHWKHFXUUHQF\DSSUHFLDWLRQVHHQ DQLQWHUHVWLQJGHYHORSPHQWLQDVPXFKDVWKHHIIHFWVRI LQ6RXWK$PHULFDGXULQJWKH\HDUWKHWRWDOUHDOHIIHFWLYH UHJLRQDOLQWHJUDWLRQPHDQWKDWWKHFXUUHQF\PRYHPHQWV H[FKDQJHUDWHVDUHVWLOOKLJKHUWKDQLQWKH V %UD]LO RIRQHRIWKHUHJLRQ¶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igure III.16 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EXTRAREGIONAL REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (Average for January 1990-December 1999=100) /DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ 6RXWK$PHULFD &HQWUDO$PHULFD0H[LFRDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and International Monetary Fund. 7KH\HDU PD\EHFRQVLGHUHGPRUH³QRUPDO´WKDQWKH VRYHUDOOIURPWKHSRLQWRIYLHZRIGRPHVWLFDQGH[WHUQDOHTXLOLEULD 66 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure III.17 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (21 COUNTRIES): TOTAL REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES (Average for January-October 2005 with respect to 1990-1999) a $UJHQWLQD %UD]LO 3DUDJXD\ 1LFDUDJXD %ROLYLD 3DQDPD 'RPLQLFD 8UXJXD\ 3HUX &RVWD5LFD &KLOH &RORPELD 7ULQLGDGDQG7DEDJR (FXDGRU 0H[LFR 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSRI (O6DOYDGRU -DPDLFD +RQGXUDV 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF *XDWHPDOD Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and International Monetary Fund. a For Dominica, corresponds to average for January-August; in the case of Dominican Republic, the figures refer to the real bilateral exchange rate against the United States dollar. 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WKHKLJKHUSULFHVIRUWKLVFRPPRGLW\DOVRFXWLQWRWKHLU UHJLPHV VHHWDEOH,,, ZKLFKOHDGVWRDYDULHW\RIHIIHFWV WHUPVRIWUDGH/DVWO\PRXQWLQJFRPSHWLWLRQIURP&KLQD RQWKHH[FKDQJHUDWH,QWKHFDVHRIUHJLPHVXQGHUZKLFK LQWKHODERXULQWHQVLYHPDQXIDFWXULQJVHFWRULQFOXGLQJ WKHH[FKDQJHUDWHLVPRUHIL[HGVXFKDVWKHFUDZOLQJSHJ WKHWH[WLOHVJRRGVWKHUHJLRQSURFHVVHVIRUH[SRUWWRWKH VFKHPHWKHVXSSO\RIIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\LVPRQHWL]HGRU 8QLWHG6WDWHVPDUNHWDOVRDSSHDUVWRKDYHFRQWDLQHG WUDQVODWHVLQWRDQLQFUHDVHLQWKHFHQWUDOEDQN¶VILQDQFLDO LQFUHDVHVLQWKHSULFHVRIWKRVHFRXQWULHV¶H[SRUWV OLDELOLWLHV%\FRQWUDVWXQGHUPRUHIOH[LEOHUHJLPHVWKH ,QIORZVRIIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\LQWR&HQWUDO$PHULFD PRQHWDU\DXWKRULWLHVFDQLQWHUYHQHLQWKHFXUUHQF\PDUNHW DQG0H[LFRLQWKHIRUPRIWUDQVIHUV RIZKLFKHPLJUDQW RQDGLVFUHWLRQDU\EDVLV Figure III.18 LATIN AMERICA (16 COUNTRIES): NET TRANSFERS, 2005 (Percentages of GDP and millions of dollars) a 86ELOOLRQ 3HUX %UD]LO 0H[LFR %ROLYLD (FXDGRU 8UXJXD\ 3DQDPD &RORPELD $UJHQWLQD 3DUDJXD\ +RQGXUDV 5HSXEOLF 1LFDUDJXD 'RPLQLFDQ &RVWD5LFD *XDWHPDOD (O6DOYDGRU 3HUFHQWDJHVRI*'3 0LOOLRQVRIGROODUV ULJKWKDQGD[LV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and International Monetary Fund. a Estimated figures. 68 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table III.2 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EXCHANGE-RATE REGIMES, 1999-2005 a 1999 2001 2003 2005 Dollarization Panama Ecuador Ecuador Ecuador El Salvador b El Salvador b El Salvador b Panama Panama Panama Currency Argentina Argentina Antigua and Barbuda c Antigua and Barbuda c board Antigua and Barbuda c Antigua and Barbuda c Grenada c Grenada c Grenada c Grenada c Dominica c Dominica c Dominica c Dominica c Saint Kitts and Nevis c Saint Kitts and Nevis c Saint Kitts and Nevis c Saint Kitts and Nevis c Saint Lucia c Saint Lucia c Saint Lucia c Saint Lucia c Saint Vincent and the Grenadines c Saint Vincent and the Grenadines c Saint Vincent and the Grenadines c Saint Vincent and the Grenadines c Other fixed Bahamas Bahamas Bahamas Bahamas parity Barbados Barbados Barbados Barbados regimes Belize Belize Belize Belize El Salvador Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) Crawling Bolivia Bolivia Bolivia Bolivia pegs and Costa Rica Costa Rica Costa Rica Costa Rica moving Nicaragua Nicaragua Nicaragua Nicaragua bands Honduras Honduras Honduras Honduras Uruguay Uruguay Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) Venezuela (Bolivarian Rep. of) Flexible Brazil Brazil Argentina Argentina Chile Chile Brazil Brazil Colombia Colombia Chile Chile Ecuador Guatemala Colombia Colombia Guatemala Guyana Guatemala Guatemala Guyana Haiti Guyana Guyana Haiti Jamaica Haiti Haiti Jamaica Mexico Jamaica Jamaica Mexico Paraguay Mexico Mexico Paraguay Peru Paraguay Paraguay Peru Dominican Republic Peru Peru Dominican Republic Suriname d Dominican Republic Dominican Republic Suriname d Trinidad and Tobago d Suriname d Suriname d Trinidad and Tobago d Trinidad and Tobago d Trinidad and Tobago d Uruguay Uruguay Source: International Monetary Fund, “Classification of exchange rate arrangements and monetary policy frameworks”. a Situation at 31 December each year. b The dollar is legal tender. No more new colones will be printed, but the existing stock will continue to circulate until the two currencies have fully swapped. c These countries belong to the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States. d The regime operating de facto in the country is different from the de jure regime shown. 7KHSKHQRPHQRQRIUHPLWWDQFHVUHIOHFWVIDFWRUV FDSDFLW\ RI*RYHUQPHQWVWROHY\WD[HVRQWKHUHFLSLHQWVRI WKDWWUDQVFHQGWKHSXUHO\HFRQRPLFVSKHUH VXFKDVWKH UHPLWWDQFHVLVGRXEWIXOKRZHYHU,QJHQHUDOUHPLWWDQFHV HPLJUDWLRQIXHOOHGE\WKHFRQIOLFWLQ(O6DOYDGRULQWKH JRWRSRSXODWLRQJURXSVZLWKIHZUHVRXUFHVZKRDUH V 5HPLWWDQFHVUHSUHVHQWDIORZRIIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\ RIWHQOLYLQJEHORZWKHSRYHUW\OLQHKDYHXQPHWEDVLF WKDWLVH[RJHQRXVIURPWKHSRLQWRIYLHZRIPDFURHFRQRPLF FRQVXPSWLRQQHHGVDQGOLYHLQHFRQRPLFDOO\XQGHUSULYLOHJHG SROLF\,WLVGLIILFXOWIRUSXEOLFSROLF\WRLQIOXHQFHWKH DUHDV7KH\RIWHQODFNDFFHVVWREDVLFSXEOLFVHUYLFHV HIIHFWVRIUHPLWWDQFHVRQFXUUHQF\DSSUHFLDWLRQZKLFK DPRQJRWKHUWKLQJV5HVHDUFKKDVVKRZQWKDWWKHEXONRI DUHRIWHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWK'XWFKGLVHDVH7KHRQO\ UHPLWWDQFHVJRWRILQDQFHFRQVXPSWLRQ$VDUHVXOWDSDUW PDFURHFRQRPLFSROLF\WRROWKDWFDQSUHYHQWUHPLWWDQFHV IURPSROLFLHVWRHQFRXUDJHWKHFKDQQHOOLQJRIUHPLWWDQFHV IURPEHLQJFKDQQHOOHGLQWRFRQVXPSWLRQLVILVFDOSROLF\ QRWVSHQWRQFRQVXPSWLRQLQWRLQYHVWPHQWLQSURGXFWLRQ VSHFLILFDOO\WD[LQVWUXPHQWV7KHZLOO DQGHYHQWKH DQGKRXVLQJ IRUH[DPSOHE\SURYLGLQJILVFDOVWLPXOLLQ 7KLVLVEHFDXVHWKHIDFWRUVWKDWOHDGDQHPLJUDQWWRVHQGUHPLWWDQFHVKRPHDUHXQOLNHO\WREHVLJQLILFDQWO\DOWHUHGE\FKDQJHVLQDJRYHUQPHQW¶V PDFURHFRQRPLFSROLF\PHDVXUHV ,QGLYLGXDOGLVSDWFKHVRIUHPLWWDQFHVDUHXVXDOO\TXLWHVPDOODQGRIWHQVHQWWKURXJKLQIRUPDOFKDQQHOV,WZRXOGWKHUHIRUHSUREDEO\EHFRVWO\WR FRQWURODQGFROOHFWWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJWD[ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 69 WKHIRUPRIFKHDSEXLOGLQJORDQVVHFXUHGE\UHPLWWDQFHV ZHUHDLPHGDWLQIOXHQFLQJWKHUHDOH[FKDQJHUDWH *RYHUQPHQWVKDYHRQO\OLPLWHGWRROVIRUFRQWDLQLQJWKH 1DWXUDOO\H[FKDQJHUDWHVWDELOL]DWLRQLVQRWWKHRQO\ HIIHFWVRIUHPLWWDQFHVRQFXUUHQF\PRYHPHQWV UHDVRQIRUEX\LQJIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\,QVRPHFRXQWULHV /DVWO\WKHDXWKRULWLHVLQVHYHUDORIWKHUHJLRQ¶V WKHDFFXPXODWLRQRIIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\VHUYHGWRUHFRXS FRXQWULHVLQFOXGLQJ$UJHQWLQD&RORPELDDQG3HUX UHVHUYHVWKDWKDGGURSSHGWRUHODWLYHO\ORZOHYHOVLQWKH LQWHUYHQHGUHSHDWHGO\LQWKHFXUUHQF\PDUNHWVEX\LQJ ZDNHRIWKHFULVHVVHHQLQHDUOLHU\HDUV,QFRXQWULHV ODUJHYROXPHVRIIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\LQWKHILUVWQLQH ZLWKKLJKO\GROODUL]HGILQDQFLDOV\VWHPVWKHEXLOGXS PRQWKVRIWKH\HDU DVVKRZQLQILJXUH,,, LQRUGHU RILQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHUYHVRIIHUVDPHDQVRIVWDELOL]LQJ WRRIIVHWWKHLUFXUUHQFLHV¶WUHQGWRZDUGVUHDOHIIHFWLYH H[SHFWDWLRQVLQWKHIDFHRISRWHQWLDOSUREOHPVLQWKH DSSUHFLDWLRQLQ,QVRPHFDVHVVXFKLQWHUYHQWLRQV ILQDQFLDOVHFWRU Figure III.19 LATIN AMERICA (15 COUNTRIES): VARIATION IN NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, DECEMBER 2004-SEPTEMBER 2005 a b (Percentages of GDP and millions of dollars) 3HUX &KLOH %UD]LO %ROLYLD 0H[LFR 8UXJXD\ &RORPELD 3DUDJXD\ $UJHQWLQD +RQGXUDV 1LFDUDJXD *XDWHPDOD &RVWD5LFD 5HSRI 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ 3HUFHQWDJHVRI*'3 0LOOLRQVRIGROODUV ULJKWKDQGD[LV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures and the International Monetary Fund. a Total reserves minus gold, less reserve position in the International Monetary Fund. b In the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Brazil and Peru, corresponds to the variation from December 2004-August 2005. 70 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) C. Monetary policy 1. 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LQWHUEDQNGHSRVLWDQGOHQGLQJUDWHVVKLIWHGZLWK RQ 72 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure III.20 LATIN AMERICA (11 COUNTRIES): NOMINAL INTEREST RATES a $UJHQWLQD %UD]LO 3HUFHQWDJHV 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0DU 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ &KLOH &RORPELD 3HUFHQWDJHV 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ &RVWD5LFD +DLWL 3HUFHQWDJHV 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 73 Figure III.20 (concluded) -DPDLFD 0H[LFR 3HUFHQWDJHV 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ 3HUX 3DUDJXD\ 3HUFHQWDJHV 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ ,QWHUEDQNUDWH 1RPLQDOOHQGLQJUDWH 1RPLQDOGHSRVLWUDWH Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Three-month moving average centred on month t. 74 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Figure III.21 LATIN AMERICA (11 COUNTRIES): REAL INTEREST RATES a $UJHQWLQD %UD]LO 3HUFHQWDJHV 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ &KLOH &RORPELD 3HUFHQWDJHV 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ &RVWD5LFD +DLWL 3HUFHQWDJHV 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 75 Figure III.21 (concluded) -DPDLFD 0H[LFR 3HUFHQWDJHV 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ 3DUDJXD\ 3HUX 3HUFHQWDJHV 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ -DQ 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF )HEUXDU\ /HQGLQJUDWH 'HSRVLWUDWH 3HUFHQWDJHV -XO -XO -XO 0DU 0DU 0DU 6HS 6HS 6HS 1RY 1RY 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -DQ -DQ -DQ 5HDOOHQGLQJUDWH 5HDOGHSRVLWUDWH Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Three-month moving average, centered on the reference month. Real rates were calculated as r = I - p, where i is the nominal rate and p is the annualized inflation rate. 76 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table III.3 LATIN AMERICA (SELECTED COUNTRIES): MONETARY AGGREGATES (Twelve-month variation, in percentages) 12-month variation 12-month variation 12-month variation to September 2003 to September 2004 to September 2005 Argentina M3 30.5 23.2 21.5 Argentina M1 53.0 27.2 30.6 Bolivia a M1 25.9 14.4 45.9 Brazil M1 -3.2 28.7 7.1 Chile a M1 -6.2 20.4 13.4 Colombia a M1 17.1 12.6 19.0 Costa Rica a M1 13.0 15.9 20.0 Ecuador M2 -7.9 17.4 23.1 Ecuador M1 -2.8 21.3 22.6 El Salvador M1 -0.2 15.6 5.1 Guatemala M1 17.2 5.6 17.7 Honduras M1 10.8 15.9 19.6 Mexico M1 13.8 13.5 12.4 Nicaragua a M1 ... 28.4 24.0 Paraguay M1 38.8 25.4 21.4 Peru M1 10.6 20.4 32.9 Dominican Republic a M1 59 32.8 12.8 Uruguay M1 27.2 15.4 27.0 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) M1 68.9 51.9 56.1 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Variation to October each year. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 77 Chapter IV Domestic performance A. 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America and the Caribbean • 2005 81 Figure IV.3 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP AND COMPONENTS OF EXPENDITURE (Millions of dollars at 2000 prices, index: 2000=100) a 7RWDOFRQVXPSWLRQ *URVVGRPHVWLFLQYHVWPHQW ([SRUWVRIJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHV ,PSRUWVRIJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHV *'3 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures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igure IV.4 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: FIXED GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION (Percentages of GDP, figures in dollars at 2000 prices) 1LFDUDJXD &KLOH +DLWL (FXDGRU +RQGXUDV &RORPELD 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSRI 0H[LFR /DWLQ$PHULFD 3HUX %UD]LO 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF 3DQDPD &RVWD5LFD $UJHQWLQD (O6DOYDGRU 3DUDJXD\ *XDWHPDOD %ROLYLD 8UXJXD\ D Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. 82 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 7KHVDWLVIDFWRU\UHJLRQDOGHYHORSPHQWRIWKH FRQVXPSWLRQZKLOHWKHJHQHUDOH[SDQVLRQRIGRPHVWLF FRPSRQHQWVRIGHPDQGZDVUHIOHFWHGLQWKHYDULRXV DFWLYLW\JDYHDVLJQLILFDQWERRVWWRWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRU7KH HFRQRPLFVHFWRUV7KHLQFUHDVHGPLQLQJDQGK\GURFDUERQ EXR\DQF\RIWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOHFRQRP\DOVRKDGDSRVLWLYH SURGXFWLRQZDVDUHVSRQVHWRWKHSHUVLVWHQWH[WHUQDO LPSDFWRQWRXULVWUHODWHGDFWLYLWLHV DFFRUGLQJWRWKHGDWD GHPDQGZKLFKWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHULVHLQGRPHVWLFGHPDQG DYDLODEOHDVRI6HSWHPEHUWKHQXPEHURIWRXULVW FRQWLQXHGWRERRVWWKHLQGXVWULDOVHFWRUWKDQNVWRWKH 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&KLOH %UD]LO %ROLYLD 0H[LFR (FXDGRU 3DQDPD 8UXJXD\ &RORPELD $UJHQWLQD 3DUDJXD\ +RQGXUDV 1LFDUDJXD &RVWD5LFD *XDWHPDOD (O6DOYDGRU /DWLQ$PHULFD 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSRI *URVVGRPHVWLFSURGXFW *URVVQDWLRQDOLQFRPH Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. ,QDVSUHYLRXVO\PHQWLRQHGDQXPEHURIWKH WKHSHULRG$VH[WHUQDOFRQGLWLRQVZHUHWKHVDPH UHJLRQ¶VFRXQWULHVUHFRYHUHGWKHLUSUHFULVLVOHYHOVRI*'3 IRUDOOLWZDVHDFKFRXQWU\¶VSURGXFWLYHVSHFLDOL]DWLRQDQG 'HVSLWHWKHJHQHUDOIHDWXUHVUHIHUUHGWRWKHG\QDPLFVRI PDFURHFRQRPLFVLWXDWLRQDWWKHWLPHZKHQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDO JURZWKLQWKHUHJLRQYDULHGVRPHZKDWIURPFRXQWU\WR HFRQRP\EHJDQWRSLFNXSWKDWGHWHUPLQHGWKHLUUHDFWLRQ FRXQWU\ZKLFKFDQEHVHHQE\UHYLHZLQJWKHGHWHUPLQDQWV WRWKHLPSURYHGRXWORRN2YHUWKHSHULRGWKH RIJURZWKVSHFLILFDOO\LQUHODWLRQWRWKHFRPSRQHQWVWKDW ODUJHVWGHFOLQHVLQERWKWRWDOFRQVXPSWLRQDQGLQYHVWPHQW OHGWKHHFRQRPLFH[SDQVLRQDQGKRZWKH\GHYHORSHGRYHU 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'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF 0H[LFR 86 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Box IV.1 THE DEVASTATING IMPACT OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN 2005 AND THE NEED FOR ADAPTATION In 2005 there was an increase in the Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean If the damage in the United States intensity, concentration and number islands and the north coast of the Gulf of is excluded, the preliminary estimates of unusual weather phenomena, Mexico, that is, in Louisiana, Missouri, exceed US$ 6 billion (ECLAC has evaluated which surpassed even the historically Mississippi and Texas. The phenomena phenomena in Central America and the unprecedented dimensions of those recorded in 2005 are estimated to have Caribbean which have caused damage recorded in 2004. For the first time in affected more than 6 million persons, of US$ 2,222 billion). The table shows a 154 years of hurricane records, in 2005 resulting in about 4,600 deaths and preliminary, and in some cases unofficial, there were 26 named phenomena and economic costs of between US$ 200,000 estimate of the impact of the hurricanes 13 hurricanes with devastating effects on million and 210,000 million. and other phenomena in 2005. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: THE IMPACT OF HURRICANES, 2005 (ECLAC estimates) Damage (in millions of United States dollars) Persons Hurricane season 2005 Deaths directly Direct Indirect affected Totals (stock or (loss of capital) flows) January Guyana Floods from Georgetown 34 274 774 465.1 418.3 46.8 to Albion October Guatemala Torrential rains and 1 583 474 821 988.3 421.1 567.2 tropical storm Stan October El Salvador Torrential rains, tropical 69 72 141 355.7 196.2 159.5 storm Stan and eruption of the volcano Ilamatepec July-September United States Dennis, Katrina, Rita 1 698 900 000 200 000 65 000 135 000 July-September Mexico Emily, Stan, Wilma, etc. 64 2 680 571 2 200 1 250 950 August Cuba Dennis 16 2 500 000 1 400 950 450 Other events 1 134 3 474 389 150 100 50 Totals Evaluated by ECLAC 1 690 885 036 2 222 1 358 864 Total (excluding United States) 2 900 6 002 307 5 559 3 236 2 174 Total (including United States) 4 598 6 902 307 205 559 68 236 137 174 Note: The data for Cuba, United States and Mexico are partial and show preliminary estimates. In the case of Mexico, the official expert bodies are carrying out a full assessment. The category “other events” includes volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods in other countries. The corresponding data are extrapolations based on partial information. Not all of the disasters that occurred in 2005 are included; hence the total damages are even higher. The year 2005 was also extremely affected population’s income. Nor did it torrential rain in the Bolivarian Republic difficult in the United States. The insured include the impact of the drop in remittances of Venezuela and Colombia, the volcanic losses, estimated by the Insurance Services sent by workers resident in the affected activity of Galeras in Colombia and drought Office (ISO) at US$ 47.200 billion, exceeded states to the Central American countries in the Amazon— indicates the need for the both the damages and losses caused by and in particular to Honduras. countries to adapt to climate change. This hurricane Andrew in 1992 and the combined The 2005 hurricane season, and would include the adoption of strategies effects of hurricanes Ivan, Charly and also the other phenomena that occurred to reduce vulnerability to growing and Frances in 2004. The above figure did not in Latin America and the Caribbean with multiple threats, as part of the countries’ take account of the consequences for the catastrophic consequences in terms policies for development, competitiveness, oil market —reduction in extraction and of loss of life, housing and production enhancement of productivity and achieving refining in the Gulf of Mexico— or for the activities —earthquakes in Chile and Peru, the Millennium Development Goals. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 87 Box IV.1 (concluded) Many countries in the region, in view and a reduction in collective well-being, level, and particularly in the relatively of their geomorphologic conditions, need but infrastructure has to be replaced, less developed and smaller countries, to adopt land-use plans and regulations infrastructure that was constructed with whose economies are less diversified for human settlements, construction great effort and in many cases financed and more dependent on primary sectors codes and safety standards that help to from external debt that is still in the process and natural assets, there is a need for risk deal with multiple dangers. When these of being repaid. reduction and transfer instruments, as well potential dangers result in disasters, not The impact of natural disasters throws as countercyclical financial instruments only is there a delay in the achievement into relief the lack of contingency, alertness which can be used to compensate for the of the Millennium Development Goals and preparation measures. At the regional foreseeable losses. Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), December 2005. B. 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Exchange rate 2003 2004 2005 a 2003 2004 2005 a 2003 2004 2005 a Argentina 3.7 6.1 9.8 2.0 7.9 9.6 -14.8 0.8 -2.3 Bahamas 2.3 1.0 1.9 c 0.0 0.0 0.0 Barbados 0.3 4.3 3.1 c 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bolivia 3.9 4.6 3.94.6 3.0 -0.1 Brazil 9.3 7.6 4.7 6.3 14.7 -1.1 -19.3 -7.1 -15.1 Chile 1.1 2.4 4.3 -1.0 7.8 7.7 -14.1 -4.5 -2.9 Colombia 6.5 5.5 4.7 5.7 4.6 2.5 -0.2 -13.9 -5.1 Costa Rica 9.9 13.1 11.1 11.0 20.0 12.0 10.6 0.5 6.9 Ecuador 6.1 1.9 3.6 4.5 4.3 31.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 El Salvador 2.5 5.4 5.7 -0.7 13.3 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Guyana 5.0 5.5 3.3 c 1.3 2.8 0.1 Guatemala 5.9 9.2 8.64.9 -3.2 -1.8 Haiti 40.4 20.2 11.6 b 15.4 -12.7 15.6 Honduras 6.8 9.2 7.15.0 4.9 1.4 Jamaica 14.1 13.7 12.520.7 2.0 2.1 Mexico 4.0 5.2 2.0 6.8 8.0 2.9 10.4 -0.5 -3.2 Nicaragua 6.5 8.9 8.8 b 6.0 5.0 4.1 Panama 1.6 1.5 3.0 b 0.0 0.0 0.0 Paraguay 9.3 2.8 8.6-13.8 2.9 -1.8 Peru 2.5 3.5 1.0 2.0 4.9 2.7 -1.2 -5.5 1.9 b Dominican Republic 42.7 28.7 7.375.6 -21.4 8.5 Suriname 13.1 9.1 9.8 b 4.0 3.4 0.9 Trinidad and Tobago 3.0 5.6 4.8 b 0.0 0.0 -0.5 Uruguay 10.2 8.6 4.8 20.5 5.1 1.1 7.4 -9.1 -11.8 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 27.1 19.2 12.3 48.4 23.1 12.7 21.0 20.0 11.9 Latin America and the Caribbean (weigted average) 8.5 7.4 5.1 Latin America and the Caribbean (simple average) 9.5 8.1 6.3 9.6 10.3 8.3… … Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a October 2005 in relation to December 2004. b September 2005 in relation to December 2004. c June 2005 in relation to December 2004. 7KHUHVXOWVDUHDOVRPL[HGZKHQFRQVLGHULQJFKDQJHV UDWHLQLVGXHPDLQO\WRWKHVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHU LQSULFHLQGLFHVEDVHGRQSURGXFWJURXSVFRQVLVWLQJ UDWHRILQFUHDVHLQJRRGVSULFHVHVSHFLDOO\IRRGVLQWKH PDLQO\RIJRRGV XVXDOO\WUDGDEOHV DQGSURGXFWJURXSV WKLUGTXDUWHURIWKH\HDU,QWKH'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF FRQVLVWLQJPDLQO\RIVHUYLFHV XVXDOO\QRQWUDGDEOHV WKHVXEVWDQWLDOH[FKDQJHUDWHDSSUHFLDWLRQPLWLJDWHG 7KHVHLQGLFHVDUHFRQVWUXFWHGRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHJRRGV WKHSULFHULVHVIRULPSRUWHGJRRGVDQGIRUIRRGV,Q 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DQGKRXVHKROGHTXLSPHQWLQWKHJRRGVLQGH[DQGWUDQVSRUWKRXVLQJHGXFDWLRQFXOWXUHDQGUHFUHDWLRQDQGKHDOWKLQWKHVHUYLFHVLQGH[ 7KHPHWKRGRORJ\DSSOLHGLQDOOFDVHVFRQVLVWHGRIH[FOXGLQJIXHOVDQGSHWUROHXPSURGXFWVDQGSHULVKDEOHIRRGVIURPWKHFRQVXPHUSULFH LQGH[ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 89 Figure IV.8 LATIN AMERICA: INDICES FOR CONSUMER PRICES, GOODS PRICES AND SERVICES PRICES (Three-month moving average, unweighted average) -XO\ -XO\ -XO\ 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ $SULO $SULO $SULO -XQH -XQH -XQH 0DUFK 0DUFK 0DUFK $XJXVW $XJXVW $XJXVW 2FWREHU 2FWREHU 2FWREHU -DQXDU\ -DQXDU\ -DQXDU\ )HEUXDU\ )HEUXDU\ )HEUXDU\ 1RYHPEHU 'HFHPEHU 1RYHPEHU 'HFHPEHU 6HSWHPEHU 6HSWHPEHU 6HSWHPEHU *HQHUDO&3, IQGH[RIJRRGVSULFHV IQGH[RIVHUYLFHVSULFHV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. Figure IV.9 LATIN AMERICA: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND CORE INFLATION INDEX (Three-month moving average, unweighted average) -XO\ -XO\ -XO\ $SULO $SULO $SULO 0D\ 0D\ 0D\ -XQH -XQH -XQH 0DUFK 0DUFK 0DUFK $XJXVW $XJXVW $XJXVW -DQXDU\ 2FWREHU -DQXDU\ 2FWREHU 2FWREHU -DQXDU\ )HEUXDU\ )HEUXDU\ )HEUXDU\ 1RYHPEHU 'HFHPEHU 1RYHPEHU 'HFHPEHU 6HSWHPEHU 6HSWHPEHU 6HSWHPEHU *HQHUDO&3, &RUHLQIODWLRQ Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. 90 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) C. 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URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, 2004 AND 2005 a /DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ $UJHQWLQD %UD]LO &KLOH &RORPELD &RVWD5LFD (FXDGRU (O6DOYDGRU +RQGXUDV 0H[LFR 3DQDPD 3HUX 'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF 7ULQLGDGDQG7REDJR 8UXJXD\ 9HQH]XHOD %ROLYDULDQ5HSRI D Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. Figure IV.12 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT 8QHPSOR\PHQW LQSHUFHQWDJHSRLQWV a (FRQRPLFJURZWKLQSHUFHQWDJHV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. Note: The original data for the regional unemployment rate were used in this graph, and not the data shown in Table A.22 of the statistical appendix, which were calculated after application of the recent methodological changes. a Preliminary figures. 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Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 95 South America 96 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 97 Argentina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¶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³*'3OLQNHGXQLWV´ZKLFK WKH\HDU WKHWD[UDWLRURVHE\MXVWXQGHUFRPSDUHG SURYLGHIRUSD\PHQWVFRQWLQJHQWXSRQJURZWKLQDFWLYLW\ ZLWKWKHSUHYLRXV\HDU¶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conomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) UHVXOWLQJIURPWKHVZDSZDVUHIOHFWHGLQOHYHOVRIFRXQWU\ ARGENTINA: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND UNEMPLOYMENT ULVNRIDERXWEDVLVSRLQWV :LWKRXWWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHKROGRXWVZKLFK DPRXQWHGWRDERXW86ELOOLRQRIWKHRULJLQDOYDOXH WKHUHVWUXFWXUHGFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQWSXEOLFGHEWVWRRGDW DERXWRI*'3SDUWRIZKLFKUHSUHVHQWHGDPRXQWV RZHGWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOERGLHV$OWKRXJKWKHUHUHPDLQHGD VWURQJOLQNEHWZHHQGHEWDQG*'3WKHVZDSH[WHQGHGWKH PDWXULW\SHULRGVDQGFRQVLGHUDEO\UHGXFHGWKHZHLJKWRI LQWHUHVWSD\PHQWVZKLFKGXULQJWKHILUVW\HDUVDQGOHDYLQJ DVLGHWKHSRVVLEOHSULFHDQGLQWHUHVWUDWHUHODWHGHIIHFWV DPRXQWHGWRQRPRUHWKDQ86ELOOLRQDOLWWOHXQGHU 8QHPSOR\PHQWSHUFHQWDJHRI($3 RI*'3,QDQ\FDVHWKHPDWXULW\RIGHEWVLQERQGVDQG *'3\HDURQ\HDUTXDUWHUO\UDWHRIYDULDWLRQ , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ,9 , ,, ,,, ORDQVIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDOERGLHVOHGWRILQDQFLQJQHHGVGXULQJ WKHFXUUHQW\HDUDQGLQIXWXUH7KHGHEWVZDSZDVFDUULHG Unemployment GDP RXWUHJDUGOHVVRIWKH,0)ZLWKZKLFK$UJHQWLQDKDGQR DJUHHPHQWLQIRUFHGXULQJ QHWORDQUHSD\PHQWVWR Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean PXOWLODWHUDOERGLHVLQWKHILUVWKDOIRIWKH\HDUUHSUHVHQWHG (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. 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WKHZRUVWDIIHFWHGDUHDVZHUHWUDQVSRUWDQGVWRUDJHPDQXIDFWXULQJLQGXVWU\DQGFRPPHUFH7KHIDOOLQWKHDQQXDO*'3JURZWK UDWHFDXVHGE\WKHVHHYHQWVZDVHVWLPDWHGDWSHUFHQWDJHSRLQWV 104 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 2QWKHGHPDQGVLGHWKHJURZWKLQSULYDWHFRQVXPSWLRQ BOLIVIA: MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS IRULVHVWLPDWHGDWEXWLQYHVWPHQWIHOOE\DERXW a 3ODQQHGSULYDWHLQYHVWPHQWVZHUHEDVLFDOO\IRFXVHG 2003 2004 2005 RQWKHVLOYHUDQG]LQFPLQLQJSURMHFWVRI6DQ&ULVWyEDO Annual growth rates Gross domestic product 2.8 3.6 3.8 6DQ%DUWRORPpDQG.DULFKLSDPSD Consumer prices 3.9 4.6 5.0 b Average real wage 1.7 2.4 ... $VIRUWKHH[WHUQDOVHFWRUIURP-DQXDU\WR6HSWHPEHU Money (M1) 14.3 15.7 26.4 c LPSRUWVJUHZPRUHWKDQH[WHUQDOVDOHV7KHWUDGH Real effective exchange rate d 9.2 7.3 8.3 c Terms of trade 2.4 5.6 5.2 EDODQFHZHDNHQHGIURPWKH86PLOOLRQUHFRUGHG Annual average percentages IRUWKHVDPHSHULRGLQWR86PLOOLRQLQ Urban unemployment rate 9.2 8.5 ... Non-financial public-sector ([SRUWVZHUH86 PLOOLRQ KLJKHU overall balance / GDP -8.1 -5.5 … WKDQLQWKHVDPHSHULRGLQRZLQJWRWKHULVLQJ Nominal deposit rate e 10.9 7.0 4.8 f Nominal lending rate e 20.8 17.2 12.3 f ZRUOGSULFHVIRUJDVDQGK\GURFDUERQVLQJHQHUDO Millions of dollars +\GURFDUERQDQGPLQHUDOH[WUDFWLRQDFWLYLWLHVVKRZHG Exports of goods and services 1 962 2 546 2 989 Imports of goods and services 2 049 2 320 2 932 LQFUHDVHVRI86PLOOLRQ DQG86 Current account 62 285 50 PLOOLRQ UHVSHFWLYHO\DQGDJULFXOWXUHLQFOXGLQJ Capital and financial account 15 -159 171 Overall balance 77 126 222 OLYHVWRFNJUHZE\86PLOOLRQ WKDQNVWR VWURQJHUH[SRUWVRIVR\EHDQVDQGQXWV([WHUQDOVDOHVRI Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on the basis of official figures. PDQXIDFWXUHGJRRGVGURSSHGE\86PLOOLRQ a Preliminary estimates. ,PSRUWVH[SDQGHGE\86 PLOOLRQ RZLQJ b Twelve-month variation to November 2005. c Year-on-year average variation, January to October. 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SXUFKDVHVIRULQYHVWPHQWSURMHFWVLQWKHPLQLQJVHFWRU e Average annual rates in dollars. f 7KHJUHDWHVWLQFUHDVHVZHUHLQLQGXVWULDOVXSSOLHVXS Average from January to November, annualized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reliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 105 Brazil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conomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean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nemployment GDP UHVSHFWLYHO\ RZLQJWRWKHVXEVWDQWLDOKLNHVLQ SD\PHQWVIRUUHWLUHPHQWDQGRWKHUSHQVLRQVDQGVRFLDO Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean ZHOIDUHEHQHILWV7KHSUHVVXUHRIFXUUHQWVSHQGLQJKDV (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. 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TXDUWHURI FRQVHTXHQWO\WKHDYHUDJHIRUWKH\HDU a Preliminary estimates. b Twelve-month variation to November 2005. RYHUDOOVKRXOGFRPHGRZQWR7KLVOHYHOFRQWLQXHV c General hourly wage index. WRH[FHHGE\PRUHWKDQWKHXQHPSOR\PHQWUDWH d Year-on-year average variation, January to October. UHFRUGHGLQ DQG DQG e A negative rate indicates an appreciation of the currency in real terms. f Average from January to November, annualized. 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H[FKDQJHPDUNHWWRFRXQWHUDFWWKHORQJSHULRGVRIORFDO Money (M1) 25.7 29.6 23.2 c Real effective exchange rate d 5.1 -3.9 12.1 e FXUUHQF\DSSUHFLDWLRQ%\2FWREHUWKHQRPLQDOFXPXODWLYH Terms of trade 5.0 2.8 -7.8 DSSUHFLDWLRQRIWKHJXDUDQtLQUHODWLRQWRWKHGROODUZDV Annual average percentage ZKLFKFRUUHVSRQGHGWRDUHDODSSUHFLDWLRQRI Urban unemployment rate 15.9 14.1 12.0 Central administration 7KHUHZDVDOVRDFXPXODWLYHH[FKDQJHUDWHYDULDWLRQRI overall balance / GDP -0.4 1.6 -0.5 LQUHODWLRQWRWKH%UD]LOLDQUHDO LQUHDOWHUPV Nominal deposit rate 15.5 5.7 5.3 f Nominal lending rate 30.5 21.2 15.5 f DQGRILQUHODWLRQWRWKH$UJHQWLQHSHVR LQ Millions of dollars UHDOWHUPV $VIRUWKHUHDOHIIHFWLYHH[FKDQJHUDWHWKH Exports of goods and services 2 766 3 293 3 405 FXPXODWLYHGHSUHFLDWLRQRIWKHJXDUDQtZDV Imports of goods and services 2 805 3 467 3 778 Current account 122 30 -169 $FFRUGLQJWRHVWLPDWHVSXEOLVKHGE\WKH0LQLVWU\ Capital and financial account 109 238 276 RI$JULFXOWXUHWKHVHDVRQVDZSURGXFWLRQ Overall balance 231 268 107 IDOOIRUVR\EHDQV DQGFRWWRQ RQDFFRXQWRI Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean WKHGURXJKWDQGWKLVDIIHFWHGDJULFXOWXUDORXWSXW (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. 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UHYHQXHVDVDUHVXOWRIEHWWHUWD[FROOHFWLRQDQGHIIRUWV 7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKHFHQWUDOEDQN¶VPRQHWDU\SROLF\ WRFRPEDWHYDVLRQ,QDGGLWLRQWKHPDQDJHPHQWRI6WDWH ZDVWRUHGXFHLQIODWLRQ7RWKLVHQGLWHQJDJHGLQRSHQ IXQGVE\PHDQVRIWKHVLQJOHZLQGRZSULQFLSOHKDV PDUNHWRSHUDWLRQVDVWKHPDLQLQVWUXPHQWRIPRQHWDU\ DYRLGHGWKHJRYHUQPHQW¶VKDYLQJWRLQFUHDVHLWVERUURZLQJ 124 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) HYHQZKHQFHUWDLQDJHQFLHVKDYHKDGLGOHUHVRXUFHV7KH COSTA RICA: MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS IDVWHVWJURZLQJFDWHJRULHVRIUHYHQXHZHUHLQFRPHDQG a VDOHVWD[HVDQGFXVWRPVGXWLHV 2003 2004 2005 ,QFRQWUDVWWRZKDWKDVRFFXUUHGLQSUHYLRXV\HDUVZKHQ Annual growth rates Gross domestic product 6.5 4.2 4.2 DODUJHSDUWRIWKHILVFDOGHILFLWZDVILQDQFHGH[WHUQDOO\ Consumer prices 9.9 13.1 14.2 b E\LVVXLQJERQGVRQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOFDSLWDOPDUNHWVLQ Average real wage c 0.4 -2.6 -1.2 Money (M1) 21.5 12.5 11.9 d WKHJRYHUQPHQWPHWLWVILQDQFLQJUHTXLUHPHQWVE\ Real effective exchange rate e 6.2 2.8 1.6 d VHOOLQJGHEWLQVWUXPHQWVRQWKHORFDOPDUNHW Terms of trade -1.5 -3.8 -5.7 5HDOJURZWKLQSURGXFWLRQFDPHLQDWLQ Annual average percentages Urban unemployment rate 6.7 6.7 6.9 'XULQJWKHILUVWILYHPRQWKVRIWKH\HDUKRZHYHU Central government HFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\VORZHGEHFDXVHRIWKHDGYHUVHHIIHFWV overall balance / GDP -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 Nominal deposit rate 10.9 10.0 10.4 f RIWKHGRZQWXUQLQWHUPVRIWUDGHRQGRPHVWLFVSHQGLQJ Nominal lending rate 23.4 21.2 22.0 f YDULDEOHVWKHDXVWHUHILVFDOSROLF\DQGH[SHFWDWLRQV Millions of dollars RIKLJKHUUDWHVRILQWHUHVW$OVRWREODPHZHUHORZHU Exports of goods and services 8 190 8 610 9 756 Imports of goods and services 8 483 9 140 10 367 JURZWKLQ&RVWD5LFD¶VPDLQWUDGLQJSDUWQHUFRXQWULHV Current account -929 -831 -1 031 DQGDQXPEHURILQFLGHQWDOFOLPDWLFIDFWRUVZKLFKKXUW Capital and financial account 1 268 912 1 321 SURGXFWLRQRIEDQDQDDQGVXJDUFDQH'XULQJWKHUHVW Overall balance 339 80 290 RIWKH\HDUKRZHYHUHVSHFLDOO\LQWKHWKLUGTXDUWHU Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean WKHUDWHRIHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\SLFNHGXSLQVWHSZLWK (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary estimates. 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RIWUDGHIRUFHUWDLQDJULFXOWXUDOJRRGVDQGWKHH[SDQVLRQ a RISULYDWHFRQVXPSWLRQZKLFKEHQHILWHGIURPWKHLQIORZ 2003 2004 2005 RIIDPLO\UHPLWWDQFHV3HUIRUPDQFHDOVRLPSURYHGLQWKH Annual growth rates Gross domestic product 1.8 1.5 2.5 IROORZLQJVHFWRUV HOHFWULFLW\ILQDQFHVHUYLFHVWUDQVSRUW Consumer prices 2.5 5.4 4.6 b DQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQVFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGWRXULVP Real minimum wage 2.1 -1.4 -4.4 Money (M1) -2.0 8.5 8.7 c 7KHDJULFXOWXUDOVHFWRUSRVWHGLWVKLJKHVWJURZWKLQ Real effective exchange rate d 1.5 -0.1 1.0 e VL[\HDUV GXHWRWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHSURGXFWLRQ Terms of trade -3.9 -1.0 -1.0 RIEDVLFJUDLQVDQGKLJKHUFRIIHHDQGVXJDUSULFHV Annual average percentages Urban unemployment rate 6.2 6.5 7.2 )ROORZLQJDGHFOLQHLQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQ Central government VHFWRUJUHZE\WKDQNVWRJUHDWHUSXEOLFDQGSULYDWH overall balance / GDP -2.7 -1.1 -2.9 Nominal deposit rate 3.4 3.3 3.4 f LQYHVWPHQWLQWKH3RUWRI/D8QLyQDQGWKH3RUWRI Nominal lending rate 6.6 6.3 6.9 f $FDMXWOD0DQXIDFWXULQJYDOXHDGGHGH[SDQGHGE\PRUH Millions of dollars WKDQWZLFHWKHJURZWKUHFRUGHGWKHSUHYLRXV\HDU Exports of goods and services 4 006 4 301 4 650 Imports of goods and services 6 462 7 029 7 684 GHVSLWHWKHFORVXUHRIFHUWDLQPDTXLODHQWHUSULVHV,Q Current account -764 -612 -661 6HSWHPEHUWKHJRYHUQPHQWSUHVHQWHGDPDQXIDFWXULQJ Capital and financial account 1 080 572 593 SROLF\SURSRVDOGXHWREHLPSOHPHQWHGIURP-DQXDU\ Overall balance 316 -40 -67 ZLWKDYLHZWRVWUHQJWKHQLQJWKHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean RIWKHPDQXIDFWXULQJVHFWRU (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary estimates. 7KHGDPDJHDQGORVVHVFDXVHGE\KXUULFDQH6WDQDQG b Twelve-month variation to November 2005. 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Money (M1) 13.4 10.3 13.3 c KDOIRIWKH\HDUQRQWUDGLWLRQDOH[SRUWVH[SDQGHGIRUWKH Real effective exchange rate d -0.3 -2.9 -7.3 e IRXUWKFRQVHFXWLYH\HDU FORWKLQJQDWXUDOUXEEHU Terms of trade -2.9 -0.9 -2.8 YHJHWDEOHVDQGDERYHDOOFKHPLFDOVSHUIRUPHGZHOO7KH Annual average percentages Urban unemployment rate 3.4 3.1 ... YDOXHRIPHUFKDQGLVHLPSRUWVJUHZE\ RZLQJLQSDUW Central government WRWKHKLJKRLOSULFHV overall balance / GDP -2.3 -1.0 -1.8 Nominal deposit rate 5.2 4.5 4.6 f $FFRUGLQJWRWKH*XDWHPDODQ7RXULVP,QVWLWXWHWKH Nominal lending rate 15.0 13.8 13.1 f QXPEHURIWRXULVWVWRWKHFRXQWU\GHFOLQHGE\DV Millions of dollars DUHVXOWRIKXUULFDQH6WDQ7RXULVWDUULYDOVDUHH[SHFWHG Exports of goods and services 4 119 4 608 5 085 Imports of goods and services 7 302 8 483 9 223 WRDPRXQWWRPLOOLRQSHUVRQVLQZKLFKLPSOLHV Current account -1 039 -1 188 -1 250 D86PLOOLRQIDOOLQHDUQLQJVIURPWRXULVP1HW Capital and financial account 1 589 1 797 1 529 SD\PHQWVRISURILWVDQGLQWHUHVWVWRRGDW86PLOOLRQ Overall balance 550 609 279 WKHEDODQFHRIFXUUHQWWUDQVIHUVDPRXQWHGWR86 Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean ELOOLRQZKLOHIDPLO\UHPLWWDQFHVZHUHLQWKHYLFLQLW\RI (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary estimates. 86ELOOLRQ7KHEDODQFHRISD\PHQWVFXUUHQWDFFRXQW b Twelve-month variation to November 2005. 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UHVHUYHDVVHWVVWRRGDW86PLOOLRQ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 131 Mexico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2004 2005 IDVWHVWJURZLQJVHUYLFHVHFWRUVZHUHILQDQFLDOVHUYLFHV Annual growth rates Gross domestic product 2.3 5.1 4.0 FRPPHUFHWUDQVSRUWDQGWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV Consumer prices 6.6 8.9 10.5 b ,QIODWLRQDWZDVSHUFHQWDJHSRLQWVKLJKHU Average real wage 1.9 -2.2 -1.6 Money (M1) ... 24.2 25.6 c WKDQLQ7KHIDVWHUSULFHLQFUHDVHVZHUHGXHWRVKRUW Real effective exchange rate d 4.0 1.7 -0.4 c WHUPIDFWRUV²LQFOXGLQJKLJKHUIXHODQGWUDQVSRUWFRVWV Terms of trade -3.4 -1.9 -2.8 UDWHDGMXVWPHQWVIRUFHUWDLQEDVLFVHUYLFHVDQGDWHPSRUDU\ Annual average percentages Urban unemployment rate 10.2 9.3 ... KLNHLQWKHSULFHVRIVRPHDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWVGXHWR Central government VXSSO\IDFWRUV²UDWKHUWKDQDGHWHULRUDWLRQLQPRQHWDU\ overall balance / GDP -2.8 -2.2 -2.0 Nominal deposit rate 5.6 4.7 4.0 e FRQGLWLRQVRUDQLQFUHDVHLQGRPHVWLFVSHQGLQJ Nominal lending rate 15.5 13.5 12.3 e 3UHOLPLQDU\RIILFLDOGDWDVKRZWKDWGHVSLWHWKH Millions of dollars HFRQRPLFJURZWKWKHOHYHORIXQHPSOR\PHQWURVHVOLJKWO\ Exports of goods and services 1 307 1 653 1 873 Imports of goods and services 2 385 2 851 3 374 ,QFRQWUDVWLWLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWWKHUHDODYHUDJHZDJH Current account -749 -732 -865 LQFUHDVHGLQSDUWLFXODUEHFDXVHRIWKHKLJKHUUHPXQHUDWLRQ Capital and financial account 280 -793 826 LQFHQWUDOJRYHUQPHQW,Q$SULODDGMXVWPHQWZDV Overall balance -470 -1 524 -39 DSSURYHGIRUWKHPLQLPXPZDJHLQDOOVHFWRUV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. 7KHH[SDQVLRQRIHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\ZDVDFFRPSDQLHG a Preliminary estimates. 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DULVHGULYHQE\PRUWJDJHV SHUVRQDO UHFHLSWVIURPEXR\DQWHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\JUHDWHUFRQWURO FRQVXPHUORDQV DQGWUDGH 'HSRVLWUDWHVHGJHG LQWHUPVRIFROOHFWLRQDQGDULVHLQQRQWD[LQFRPHIURP XSVOLJKWO\ZKLOHOHQGLQJUDWHVGLSSHGZKLFKUHGXFHGWKH GLYLGHQGV([SHQGLWXUHZDVXSE\GXHWRGHEWLQWHUHVW OHYHORILQWHUPHGLDWLRQ DQGWUDQVIHUV3XEOLFLQYHVWPHQWZHDNHQHGDQGWKHSD\UROO 7UDGHSROLF\ZDVGLUHFWHGDWFRQFOXGLQJDIUHHWUDGH GHFOLQHG7KHILVFDODGMXVWPHQWIDFLOLWDWHGWKHUHGXFWLRQ DJUHHPHQWZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGDQRWKHUZLWK Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 137 6LQJDSRUH7KHWDONVZLWK6LQJDSRUHZHUHFRQFOXGHG PANAMA: MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS VXFFHVVIXOO\ZKLOHWKRVHZLWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVVWDOOHG a DOWKRXJKDILQDOURXQGRIQHJRWLDWLRQVLVVFKHGXOHGIRU 2003 2004 2005 WKHEHJLQQLQJRI1HJRWLDWLRQVZLWK&KLOHZHUH Annual growth rates Gross domestic product 4.2 7.6 6.0 UHRSHQHGDQGDQDJUHHPHQWZDVVLJQHGZLWK0H[LFRRQ Consumer prices 1.5 1.5 4.0 b WKHUHFLSURFDOSURPRWLRQDQGSURWHFWLRQRILQYHVWPHQW Real minimum wage 0.7 0.9 -2.9 Money (M1) 7.3 14.2 7.7 c *URZWKZDVZKLFKZDVORZHUWKDQLQEXW Real effective exchange rate d 2.6 5.0 2.7 e KLJKHUWKDQWKHSRWHQWLDOJURZWKRIWKHHFRQRP\6HFWRUV Terms of trade -4.4 -1.9 -1.9 SURYLGLQJVHUYLFHVWRWKHUHVWRIWKHZRUOGEHQHILWHGIURP Annual average percentages Unemployment rate f 13.1 11.8 9.6 WKHEXR\DQF\RIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG$VLDQHFRQRPLHV Non-financial public-sector DQGWKHVWHDG\JURZWKRI/DWLQ$PHULFD'RPHVWLFGHPDQG overall balance / GDP -4.8 -5.0 -3.6 Nominal deposit rate 4.0 2.2 2.7 g H[SDQGHGWKDQNVWRKRXVHKROGFRQVXPSWLRQ ERRVWHGE\WKH Nominal lending rate 8.9 8.2 8.4 g LQFUHDVHLQHPSOR\PHQWDQGFUHGLW DQGDEXQGDQWSULYDWH Millions of dollars LQYHVWPHQWLQVHFWRUVVXFKDVSRUWVDQGWRXULVP Exports of goods and services 7 606 8 611 9 634 Imports of goods and services 7 464 8 901 10 213 7KHDJULFXOWXUHDQGILVKLQJVHFWRUVSHUIRUPHGZHOO Current account - 437 -1 104 -1 515 PDLQO\RQWKHVWUHQJWKRILQFUHDVHVLQILVKLQJ Capital and financial account 284 709 1 834 OLYHVWRFNDQGH[SRUWFURSVVXFKDVFRIIHHDQGSLQHDSSOH Overall balance - 153 - 395 319 0DQXIDFWXULQJH[SDQGHGVOLJKWO\RQWKHEDFNRIDFWLYLWLHV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. UHODWHGWRIRRGSURFHVVLQJDQGWKHPDQXIDFWXULQJRIPHWDO a Preliminary estimates. SURGXFWV&RPPHUFHDOVRWXUQHGLQDILQHSHUIRUPDQFH b Twelve-month variation to October 2005. c Year-on-year average variation, January to August. ERWKDWWKHVWULFWO\GRPHVWLFOHYHODQGLQWKH&ROyQ d A negative rate indicates an appreciation of the currency in real terms. )UHH=RQH7KHPRVWEXR\DQWVHFWRULVVWLOOWUDQVSRUW e Year-on-year average variation, January to October. f Includes hidden employment. VWRUDJHDQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQV WKDQNVWRWKHSRVLWLYH g Average from January to August, annualized. UHVXOWVIRUSRUWDFWLYLWLHVUDLOZD\VWKH3DQDPD&DQDODQG PRELOHWHOHSKRQHV The Caribbean 140 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 141 Bahamas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³*OREDO2DVLV´WRXULVWFRPSOH[LQ WRHGXFDWLRQH[SHQVHV,PSURYHPHQWVLQLQIUDVWUXFWXUH 6HSWHPEHU ZLOOSXVKXSFDSLWDOH[SHQGLWXUH ,QYHVWPHQWLQWRXULVPKDVEHHQVXEVWDQWLDO.HU]QHU 7KHILVFDOGHILFLWZLOODGGWRWKHSXEOLFGHEWZKLFKLV ,QWHUQDWLRQDOZLOOVWDUWWKHWKLUGSKDVHRIWKHH[SDQVLRQRI FDXVHIRUFRQFHUQ7KLVGHEWZKLFKLQFOXGHVJRYHUQPHQW LWVSURSHUW\³$WODQWLV´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conomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) ,QWKHILUVWKDOIRIWKHRYHUDOOEDODQFHRI BAHAMAS: MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS SD\PHQWVILJXUHVWRRGDW86 PLOOLRQOHVVWKDQ a LQWKHVDPHSHULRGRI$VLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHLQWKH 2003 2004 2005 ILQDQFLDODQGFDSLWDODFFRXQWVXUSOXVFRQVLGHULQJHUURUV Annual growth rates Gross domestic product 1.9 2.8 3.5 DQGRPLVVLRQVRIIVHWWKHVKDUSLQFUHDVHLQWKHFXUUHQW Consumer prices 2.3 1.0 2.4 b DFFRXQWGHILFLWZKLFKZDVUHIOHFWHGLQDPDUJLQDOLQIORZ Money (M1) 4.8 23.3 18.8 c RIQHWLQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHUYHV Annual average percentage Unemployment rate 10.8 7.0 ... 7KHZLGHQLQJRIWKHFXUUHQWDFFRXQWGHILFLWZDV Central government GXHRQWKHRQHKDQGWRWKHLQFUHDVHLQRLOLPSRUWVDQG overall balance / GDP -2.9 -2.3 -2.8 Nominal deposit rate 3.9 3.8 3.2 d RQWKHRWKHUWRDVOLJKWFRQWUDFWLRQLQQHWLQIORZVXQGHU Nominal lending rate 12.0 11.2 10.5 d WUDYHO0HDQZKLOHWKHVLJQLILFDQWJURZWKLQWUDQVIHUV Millions of dollars ZDVFDQFHOOHGE\WKHH[SDQVLRQLQWKHGHILFLWRQWKH Exports of goods and services 2 405 2 590 2 755 Imports of goods and services 2 709 3 032 3 418 LQFRPHEDODQFH Current account -418 -199 -408 7KHILQDQFLDODQGFDSLWDODFFRXQWLQFOXGLQJHUURUVDQG Capital and financial account 322 383 438 RPLVVLRQVLPSURYHGLQWKHILUVWKDOIRIFRPSDUHG Overall balance -97 184 30 ZLWKPRYLQJIURPDGHILFLWRI86PLOOLRQWRD Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. VXUSOXVRI86PLOOLRQ7KHKLJKHULQIORZVIURP a Preliminary estimates. LQYHVWPHQWVLQFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGWRXULVPDVZHOODVIXQGV b Twelve-month variation to September 2005. c Year-on-year average variation, January to September. DVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH³&DEOH%HDFK´SURMHFWFRQWULEXWHG d Average from January to September, annualized. WRWKLVLPSURYHPHQW Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 143 Barbados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a GHILFLWIHOOE\ PLOOLRQ%DUEDGRVGROODUV %'6 WR Annual growth rates %'6 PLOOLRQ Gross domestic product 2.4 4.9 2.8 Consumer prices 0.3 4.3 5.5 b 5HYHQXHH[SDQGHGE\ERRVWHGE\DQLQFUHDVHG Money (M1) 23.4 22.1 3.0 c WD[WDNHIURPLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRUSRUDWLRQVDQGILQDQFLDO Real effective exchange rate d 3.3 4.4 -0.3 e Annual average percentages VHUYLFHFRPSDQLHV5HYHQXHIURPSHUVRQDOWD[DWLRQ Open unemployment rate 11.0 9.8 9.4 f GLSSHGE\RZLQJWRWKHUHGXFWLRQIURPWR Nominal deposit rate 2.9 3.0 3.4 g RIWKHWRSWD[UDWHVDSSOLFDEOHWRLQFRPHLQH[FHVV Nominal lending rate 7.4 7.4 8.1 g Millions of dollars RI%'6 Exports of goods and services 1 430 1 460 1 493 ([SHQGLWXUHZDVXSE\DVDUHVXOWRIULVLQJ Imports of goods and services 1 584 1 780 1 819 Current account -169 -354 -353 FXUUHQWDQGFDSLWDOVSHQGLQJWKHODWWHUEHLQJGXHWRWKH Capital and financial account 237 184 208 EHJLQQLQJRISUHSDUDWLRQVIRUWKH&ULFNHW:RUOG&XS7KH Overall balance 67 -170 -145 GHILFLWZDVILQDQFHGORFDOO\WRDYRLGDQ\GLVWXUEDQFHV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. ZKLFKPLJKWDIIHFWWKHHFRQRP\LIILQDQFLQJKDGEHHQ a Preliminary estimates. REWDLQHGIURPWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOFDSLWDOPDUNHW b Twelve-month variation to June 2005. c Year-on-year average variation, January to August. 7KHDXWKRULWLHVH[SHFWWRHQGWKHFXUUHQW\HDUZLWKD d A negative rate indicates an appreciation of the currency in real terms. GHILFLWHTXLYDOHQWWRRI*'3LQYLHZRIWKHVORZGRZQ e Year-on-year average variation, January to June. f Figure shown corresponds to first semester. RIWKHJURZWKUDWHDQGDVDUHVXOWRIWD[UHYHQXH)RU g Average from January to September, annualized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conomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) LPSURYHPHQWLQWKHFDSLWDODQGILQDQFLDOEDODQFHZKLOH RIVRDULQJLQWHUQDWLRQDORLOSULFHV7KHUHZDVDIDOOLQ WKHFXUUHQWDFFRXQWEDODQFHUHPDLQHGVWDEOH WRXULVPUHODWHGLQFRPHUHVXOWLQJLQDUHGXFHGVXUSOXV *RRGVH[SRUWVURVHVOLJKWO\DVGLGLPSRUWV7KHODWWHU RQWKHVHUYLFHVWUDGHDFFRXQW DQGRI*'3LQ ZDVGXHWRVORZHUJURZWKLQHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\EHFDXVH DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 145 Belize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a WKHIDFWWKDWUHYHQXHVZHUHEHORZWDUJHWDQGH[SHQGLWXUH 2003 2004 2005 ZDVKLJKHUWKDQDQWLFLSDWHG Annual growth rates Gross domestic product 9.2 4.6 3.0 ,QWKHILVFDOGHILFLWZDVPXFKZLGHUWKDQWKH Consumer prices 2.3 3.0 4.4 b WDUJHWHVWDEOLVKHGE\WKHDXWKRULWLHVDQGWKH\KDYHWKHUHIRUH Money (M1) 0.1 4.1 8.7 c VHWDWDUJHWRIRI*'3LQDQDWWHPSWWRVLJQLILFDQWO\ Annual average percentages Nationwide total unemployment 12.9 11.6 11.0 d UHGXFHWKHGHILFLWGXULQJ,QWKHOLJKWRIWKHWD[ Nominal deposit rate 4.8 5.2 5.3 e UHGXFWLRQVLPSOHPHQWHGIROORZLQJWKHDGRSWLRQRIWKH Nominal lending rate 14.4 13.9 14.2 e ILVFDOEXGJHWDQGWKHH[SHQGLWXUHDGMXVWPHQWVWKHWDUJHW Millions of dollars Exports of goods and services 529 526 571 ZDVUHVHWDW+RZHYHUWKHGHILFLWZLOOQRWQDUURZDV Imports of goods and services 665 654 723 PXFKDVWKHJRYHUQPHQWKDGKRSHGRQDFFRXQWRIORZHU Current account -181 -187 -211 Capital and financial account 170 219 261 WD[UHFHLSWVDQGKLJKHUH[SHQGLWXUHLQWKHZDNHRIWKH Overall balance -11 31 50 XQH[SHFWHGKLNHLQSHWUROHXPSULFHV7KLVILVFDOVLWXDWLRQ ZLOOUHVXOWLQD LQFUHDVHLQSXEOLFGHEWZKLFKDOUHDG\ Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. H[FHHGHGRI*'3LQ a Preliminary estimates. %URDGPRQH\VXSSO\JUHZE\RZLQJWRWKH b Twelve-month variation to August 2005. c Year-on-year average variation, January to August. H[SDQVLRQRIQHWLQWHUQDWLRQDODVVHWVZKLFKPRUHWKDQ d Data correspond to April. RIIVHWWKHQHWGRPHVWLFFUHGLWVTXHH]H7KHSHUIRUPDQFH e Average from January to September, annualized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Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) RIWKHFRQYHUWLEOH&XEDQSHVR &8& ZDVJHQHUDOL]HG CUBA: MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS LQUHDFWLRQWRQHZH[WHUQDOGLVWXUEDQFHVUHVXOWLQJIURP a XQLODWHUDODFWVE\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVRI$PHULFD 2003 2004 2005 7KHRIILFLDOH[FKDQJHUDWHUHPDLQHGDWRQHSHVRWR Annual growth rates Gross domestic product b 3.8 5.4 11.8 WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVGROODUEXWDVRI0DUFKWKHUDWHLQ Consumer prices c -1.0 2.9 4.2 WKHSDUDOOHOPDUNHWIHOOIURPWR&XEDQSHVRVIRU Annual average percentages WKHVDOHRIFRQYHUWLEOHSHVRVDQG8QLWHG6WDWHVGROODUV Urban unemployment rate 2.3 1.9 2.0 DQGIURPWRSHVRVIRUWKHSXUFKDVHRIFRQYHUWLEOH State fiscal balance / GDP -2.8 -3.5 -3.6 Millions of dollars d SHVRVIURPWKHQHWZRUNRI6WDWHRZQHGFXUUHQF\H[FKDQJH Exports of goods and services 4 871 5 860 8 700 RIILFHV &$'(&$ ,Q$SULOWKHFRQYHUWLEOHSHVR Imports of goods and services 5 263 6 219 8 400 Current account -127 41 60 DSSUHFLDWHGE\DJDLQVWDOOIRUHLJQFXUUHQFLHV Capital and financial account 200 800 800 $VDUHVXOWWKHSXUFKDVLQJSRZHURI8QLWHG6WDWHV Overall balance 73 841 860 GROODUVIHOOE\RQHWKLUGZLWKLQWKHVSDFHRIPRQWKV RZLQJWRWKHSULFHLQFUHDVHVLQLQVKRSVRSHUDWLQJ Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. LQIRUHLJQFXUUHQF\WKHVXUFKDUJHRQFKDQJLQJ a Preliminary estimates. WKHPLQWRFRQYHUWLEOHSHVRVDQGWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQRIWKH b Figures provided by the Government of Cuba. c Local-currency markets. FRQYHUWLEOHSHVRLQ$SULO7KHDXWKRULWLHVDQQRXQFHG d Calculated using the official rate of 1 peso to the dollar. 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UHVHUYHV$VRI2FWREHUWKHVWRFNRILQYHVWPHQWFHUWLILFDWHV 7KHVXUSOXVHQDEOHGWKH*RYHUQPHQWWRH[SDQG ZDVXSFRPSDUHGZLWK'HFHPEHUDQDPRXQW GHSRVLWVLQWKHFRPPHUFLDOEDQNLQJV\VWHPPDNH HTXLYDOHQWWRRI*'3DQGLQWHUHVWUDWHVRQWKRVH RYHUGXHSD\PHQWVIRUWKHHOHFWULFSRZHUVHFWRUSD\RII FHUWLILFDWHVZHUHGRZQWRFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHILJXUH GHEWVHUYLFLQJDUUHDUVIRUWKHUHVWRIWKHSXEOLFVHFWRUDQG RIPRQWKVHDUOLHU 150 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) 0RQHWDU\DJJUHJDWHVVKRZHGUHDOLQFUHDVHVLQ DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS FRQWUDVWZLWKWKHH[WHQVLYHUHGXFWLRQVHHQLQ a )URP2FWREHUWR2FWREHU0PRQH\ZDVXSLQ 2003 2004 2005 UHDOWHUPVHVSHFLDOO\FXUUHQWGHSRVLWVDQGEURDGPRQH\ Annual rates of variation Gross domestic product -1.9 2.0 7.0 H[SDQGHGE\%DQNLQJRSHUDWLRQVUHYLYHGLQ Consumer prices 42.7 28.7 4.8 b ERWKGHSRVLWVDQGOHQGLQJZLWKSDUWLFXODULQWHQVLW\LQ Real minimum wage -9.5 ...... Money (M1) 38.6 46.5 7.4 c WKHVHFRQGKDOIRIWKH\HDUZKLOHLQWHUHVWUDWHVIHOOE\ Terms of trade -3.5 -1.2 -2.4 DERXWSHUFHQWDJHSRLQWV$VRI6HSWHPEHUGHSRVLW Annual average percentages UDWHVVWRRGDWDQGOHQGLQJUDWHVDW %DQN Urban unemployment rate d 17.0 18.4 18.4 e Central government OHQGLQJWRWKHSULYDWHVHFWRUURVHE\PRVWO\RZLQJ overall balance / GDP -5.2 -3.0 -0.8 WRWKHPDUNHGLQFUHDVHLQOHQGLQJWRWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQ Nominal deposit rate 20.6 21.1 12.8 f f VHFWRUDQGWRLQGLYLGXDOERUURZHUVZKHUHDVRWKHUVHFWRUV Nominal lending rate 27.8 30.3 21.8 Millions of dollars ODJJHGEHKLQGFRQVLGHUDEO\ Exports of goods and services 8 940 9 252 9 872 ,QFRQWUDVWZLWKWKHFRQVLGHUDEOHH[FKDQJHUDWH Imports of goods and services 8 846 9 057 10 944 Current account 1 036 1 088 -240 YRODWLOLW\DQGGHSUHFLDWLRQLQLWLVHVWLPDWHGWKDW Capital and financial account -1 583 -541 1 106 LQWKHUDWHDJDLQVWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVGROODUIHOOE\ Overall balance -546 546 867 UHIOHFWLQJDUHDODSSUHFLDWLRQRIWKHSHVR 7KHODUJHVWH[SDQVLRQZDVLQWKHVHUYLFHVVHFWRUV Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. 7KHUHZDVVWURQJJURZWKLQFRPPXQLFDWLRQV a Preliminary estimates. EHFDXVHRIWKHJURZLQJQXPEHUVRIWHOHSKRQHVLQ b Twelve-month variation to November 2005. c Year-on-year average variation, January to October. FRPPHUFH KRWHOVEDUVDQGUHVWDXUDQWV d Includes hidden unemployment. DQGWRXULVPDQGWUDQVSRUW ZKLFKPRELOL]HGD e Data correspond to April. f FRQVLGHUDEOHYROXPHRIGRPHVWLFDQGLPSRUWHGJRRGV Average from January to November, annualized. 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Money (M1) 12.0 8.1 13.7 c FRPSDUHGZLWKWKHUHFRUGHGLQ&RQVWUXFWLRQ Real effective exchange rate d 0.0 1.6 -1.0 e KDVEHHQWKHPDLQHQJLQHRIJURZWK LQWKHQRQ Annual average percentages HQHUJ\VHFWRU$OWKRXJKDJULFXOWXUHFRQWLQXHGWRGHFOLQH Rate of urban unemployment f 10.5 8.6 8.2 Central government WKHVHFWRUWXUQHGLQDEHWWHUSHUIRUPDQFHWKDQ overall balance / GDP g 1.4 2.1 ... LQ DQG Nominal deposit rate 2.9 2.4 2.4 h h %HWZHHQWKHILUVWKDOIRIDQGWKHILUVWVL[PRQWKV Nominal lending rate 11.0 9.4 8.9 Millions of dollars RIWKHQXPEHURISHRSOHHPSOR\HGURVHE\ Exports of goods and services 5 890 7 335 10 036 PDLQO\WKDQNVWRJURZWKLQFRQVWUXFWLRQZKLFKJHQHUDWHG Imports of goods and services 4 283 5 315 5 608 Current account 985 1 623 4 132 QHZMREV7KLVDEVRUEHGWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHZRUN Capital and financial account -651 -889 -3 132 IRUFH SHUVRQDV WKHUHE\EULQJLQJGRZQWKH Overall balance 334 734 1 000 XQHPSOR\PHQWUDWHIURPWRGXULQJWKHVDPH SHULRG7KHXQHPSOR\PHQWUDWHLVH[SHFWHGWREHEHORZ Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. WKHPDUNIRUWKHILVFDO\HDU a Preliminary estimates. 7KHHFRQRP\KDVEHHQVXEMHFWHGWRLQIODWLRQDU\ b Twelve-month variation to October 2005. c Year-on-year average variation, January to June. 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WKHILUVWVL[PRQWKVRIZKLFKZDVDWWULEXWDEOHWRWKH ZLWKDYLHZWRFRQWUROOLQJOLTXLGLW\1HWVDOHVRIVHFXULWLHV KLNHLQH[SRUWVIURPWKHHQHUJ\VHFWRU )RUHFDVWV URVHIURPDQDYHUDJHRI86PLOOLRQSHUPRQWKLQWKH IRUVXJJHVWDVL]HDEOHGHILFLWLQWKHFDSLWDODFFRXQW ILVFDO\HDUWR86PLOOLRQDPRQWKLQ EDVHGRQWKHIDFWWKDWWKHILUVWVL[PRQWKVRIWKH\HDUVKRZ 1RQHWKHOHVVWKHFRQWLQXHGH[SDQVLRQRIOLTXLGLW\FKDOOHQJHV DGHILFLWRI86 ELOOLRQFRPSDUHGZLWKDQHJDWLYH WKHFHQWUDOEDQNWRLGHQWLI\RWKHUDEVRUSWLRQPHFKDQLVPV EDODQFHRIRQO\86PLOOLRQLQ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 161 Countries members of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) 7KHFRXQWULHVPHPEHUVRIWKH2UJDQL]DWLRQRI(DVWHUQ&DULEEHDQ6WDWHV 2(&6 PDLQWDLQHGWKHLU JURZWKWUDMHFWRU\DFKLHYLQJJURZWKLQ(FRQRPLFDFWLYLW\ZDVOHGE\FRQVWUXFWLRQ WRXULVPDQGWUDQVSRUW)RUJURZWKLVSUHGLFWHGGULYHQE\FRQVWUXFWLRQ WRXULVP WUDQVSRUW DQGDJULFXOWXUHZKLFKLVDOVRH[SHFWHGWRH[SDQG 7KHILVFDOGHILFLWRIWKH2(&6PHPEHUFRXQWULHVZLGHQHG 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9LUJLQ,VODQGV'RPLQLFD*UHQDGD0RQWVHUUDW6DLQW.LWWVDQG1HYLV6DLQW/XFLDDQG6DLQW9LQFHQWDQGWKH*UHQDGLQHV 162 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) &XSUHFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGUHKDELOLWDWLRQDFWLYLWLHVIROORZLQJ OECS: MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS WKHQDWXUDOGLVDVWHUVDQGWKHFRQWLQXHGLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ a RIJRYHUQPHQWSURMHFWVDQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHZRUNVUHODWLQJ 2003 2004 2005 WRGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHWRXULVPVHFWRU7KLVVHFWRU Annual growth rates Gross domestic product 3.7 3.0 5.8 KDVUHVSRQGHGWRWKHVRXQGHFRQRPLFSHUIRUPDQFH Consumer prices 0.6 1.4 ... RIWKHPDLQPDUNHWVLQWKHGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVWR Millions of dollars IDYRXUDEOHSULFHVIRU(XURSHDQWRXULVWVDVDUHVXOWRI Exports of goods and services 1 572 1 805 1 833 Imports of goods and services 2 144 2 328 2 524 WKHGHSUHFLDWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVGROODUDJDLQVW Current account -678 -562 -807 WKHHXURDQGWRWKHLQFUHDVHLQDLUWUDQVSRUWFDSDFLW\ Capital and financial account 603 617 796 &UXLVHVKLSWRXULVPKDVIDOOHQKRZHYHUIROORZLQJWKH Overall balance -74 55 -11 UHGXFWLRQLQWKHQXPEHURIFUXLVHVDQGUHVWULFWLRQVRQ Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. DQFKRUDJHFDSDFLW\LQ2(&6SRUWV a Preliminary estimates. 7KHUDWHRILQIODWLRQURVHLQOLQHZLWKWKHHVFDODWLRQ LQLQWHUQDWLRQDORLOSULFHVDQGLQFRQWUROOHGSULFHVDQGWKH 7KHFXUUHQWDFFRXQWGHILFLWUHIOHFWHGWKHULVHLQ GHSUHFLDWLRQRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVGROODUYLVjYLVWKHHXUR LQWHUQDWLRQDORLOSULFHVJURZWKLQWKHGHPDQGIRU 7KHMREOHVVUDWHUHIOHFWHGWKHXSWXUQLQWKHHFRQRP\ FRQVWUXFWLRQPDWHULDOVDQGWKHIDOOLQH[SRUWVRIEDQDQDV 7KHRYHUDOOEDODQFHRISD\PHQWVWXUQHGVOLJWKO\ DQGRWKHUDJULFXOWXUDOFURSV7KHEDODQFHRQWKHVHUYLFHV QHJDWLYHRZLQJWRWKHH[SDQVLRQRIWKHFXUUHQWDFFRXQW DFFRXQWZDVDIIHFWHGPDLQO\E\WKHYDULDWLRQLQWKH GHILFLW IURPRI*'3LQWRLQ FDWHJRU\³WUDYHO´DQGWRDOHVVHUH[WHQW³WUDQVSRUW´ ZKLFKPRUHWKDQRIIVHWWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHVXUSOXVRQ 7KHVXUSOXVRQWKHFDSLWDODQGILQDQFLDODFFRXQW WKHFDSLWDODQGILQDQFLDODFFRXQW IURP RI*'3LQ DQGRI*'3IRUDQG VWHPVIURP WRLQ WKHVWURQJ)',LQIORZVLQWRWKHWRXULVPVHFWRU Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 163 Statistical appendix 164 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 165 Table A-1 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 a Annual rates of variation Gross domestic product b 3.8 5.5 2.6 0.4 3.9 0.3 -0.8 2.0 5.9 4.3 Per capita gross domestic product b 2.0 3.8 0.9 -1.2 2.3 -1.3 -2.3 0.5 4.3 2.8 Consumer prices c 18.6 10.7 10.0 9.7 9.0 6.1 12.2 8.5 7.4 6.3 Percentages Urban open unemployment rate d 9.9 9.3 10.3 11.0 10.4 10.2 11.0 10.9 10.3 9.3 Total gross external debt / GDP e 35.5 34.0 37.0 42.3 37.0 38.4 42.6 42.4 37.3 32.0 Total gross external debt / exports of goods and services 215.5 202.9 221.5 214.3 174.1 183.0 179.5 170.4 140.6 118.0 Billions of dollars Balance of payments Current account balance -38 643 -64 412 -88 218 -54 914 -46 594 -51 438 -13 742 8 571 18 299 29 670 Merchandise trade balance 5 184 -13 134 -34 981 -6 823 3 493 -3 831 24 047 44 693 58 359 75 683 Export of goods 257 370 286 680 283 369 299 393 359 051 343 532 347 092 378 206 464 362 552 768 Imports of goods 252 187 299 813 318 350 306 217 355 559 347 362 323 045 333 513 406 002 477 086 Services trade balance -15 858 -18 997 -18 973 -17 187 -17 118 -18 889 -14 216 -13 240 -14 569 -20 604 Income balance -42 728 -47 653 -51 295 -50 304 -53 589 -53 888 -52 057 -57 743 -66 767 -72 811 Net current transfers 14 759 15 371 17 032 19 401 20 620 25 171 28 484 34 862 41 276 47 403 Capital and financial balance f 63 879 89 213 63 400 42 583 61 168 34 021 -12 114 2 237 -7 224 12 645 Net foreign investment 40 301 57 599 63 677 79 345 68 876 65 124 43 225 32 600 45 351 47 319 Financial capital g 23 579 31 614 -277 -36 762 -7 708 -31 103 -55 339 -30 363 -52 575 -34 674 Overall balance 25 237 24 801 -24 818 -12 331 14 574 -17 417 -25 856 10 808 11 075 42 315 Variation in reserve assets h -26 129 -15 800 9 085 6 203 -6 882 986 3 213 -29 501 -21 132 -34 986 Other financing i 892 -9 001 15 733 6 127 -7 692 16 431 22 644 18 693 10 058 -7 328 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. b Based on official figures converted into dollars at constant 2000 prices. c December-December variation. d The data for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico have been adjusted to allow for changes in methodology in 2003, 2002 and 2005 respectively. e Estimates based on figures denominated in dollars. f Includes errors and omissions. g Refers to the capital and financial balance (including errors and omissions), minus net foreign direct investment. h A minus sign (-) indicates an increase in reserve assets. i Includes the uses of IMF credit and loans and exceptional financing. 166 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table A-2 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Annual growth rates) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 a Latin America and the Caribbean 3.8 5.5 2.6 0.4 3.9 0.3 -0.8 2.0 5.9 4.3 Latin America 3.8 5.5 2.5 0.3 3.9 0.3 -0.9 1.9 5.9 4.3 Argentina 5.5 8.1 3.9 -3.4 -0.8 -4.4 -10.9 8.8 9.0 8.6 Bolivia 4.4 5.0 5.0 0.4 2.5 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.6 3.8 Brazil 2.7 3.3 0.1 0.8 4.4 1.3 1.9 0.5 4.9 2.5 Chile 7.4 6.6 3.2 -0.8 4.5 3.4 2.2 3.7 6.1 6.0 Colombia 2.1 3.4 0.6 -4.2 2.9 1.5 1.9 4.3 4.0 4.3 Costa Rica 0.9 5.6 8.4 8.2 1.8 1.1 2.9 6.5 4.2 4.2 Cuba 7.8 2.7 0.2 6.3 6.1 3.0 1.5 2.9 3.0 ... b Dominican Republic 7.2 8.2 7.4 8.1 8.1 3.6 4.4 -1.9 2.0 7.0 Ecuador 2.4 4.1 2.1 -6.3 2.8 5.1 3.4 2.7 6.9 3.0 El Salvador 1.7 4.2 3.7 3.4 2.2 1.7 2.2 1.8 1.5 2.5 Guatemala 3.0 4.4 5.0 3.8 3.6 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.7 3.2 Haití 4.1 2.7 2.2 2.7 0.9 -1.0 -0.5 0.5 -3.8 1.5 Honduras 3.6 5.0 2.9 -1.9 5.7 2.6 2.7 3.5 5.0 4.2 Mexico 5.2 6.8 5.0 3.8 6.6 0.0 0.8 1.4 4.2 3.0 Nicaragua 6.3 4.0 3.7 7.0 4.1 3.0 0.8 2.3 5.1 4.0 Panama 2.8 6.4 7.4 4.0 2.7 0.6 2.2 4.2 7.6 6.0 Paraguay 0.4 3.0 0.6 -1.5 -3.3 2.1 0.0 3.8 4.0 3.0 Peru 2.5 6.8 -0.7 0.9 2.9 0.2 4.9 4.0 4.8 6.0 Uruguay 5.6 5.0 4.5 -2.8 -1.4 -3.4 -11.0 2.2 12.3 6.0 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) -0.2 6.4 0.3 -6.0 3.7 3.4 -8.9 -7.7 17.9 9.0 The Caribbean 3.2 3.1 4.4 3.2 3.3 1.6 2.8 5.7 4.0 4.1 Antigua and Barbuda 6.7 4.9 4.4 4.1 1.5 2.3 3.0 4.7 5.3 4.0 Bahamas 4.2 4.9 6.8 4.0 1.9 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.8 3.5 Barbados 3.1 4.6 6.3 0.2 2.6 -2.7 -0.1 2.4 4.9 2.8 Belize 1.4 3.6 3.7 8.7 13.0 4.7 4.7 9.2 4.6 3.0 Dominica 3.1 2.0 2.8 1.6 1.3 -4.2 -5.1 0.0 3.6 2.8 Grenada 5.0 5.4 8.2 7.0 7.0 -4.9 0.4 7.5 -2.8 9.2 Guyana 16.0 2.1 0.9 0.1 5.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.7 1.6 -2.9 Jamaica -1.1 -1.7 -0.3 -0.4 0.7 1.7 1.0 2.3 0.9 1.4 Saint Kitts and Nevis 6.7 7.4 0.9 3.6 4.3 2.0 1.0 2.2 6.3 5.1 Saint Lucia 2.9 -0.4 6.2 2.3 -0.8 -5.6 1.9 4.3 3.6 7.9 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1.4 2.9 5.2 4.4 1.8 0.8 3.9 4.1 5.4 2.8 Suriname 6.0 3.6 4.5 -2.3 0.5 1.3 1.2 3.5 7.8 5.2 Trinidad and Tobago 7.0 7.7 8.1 8.0 6.9 4.2 6.9 12.6 6.4 7.0 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures converted into dollars at constant 2000 prices. a Preliminary figures. b According to the data provided by the Government of Cuba, the Cuban economy has grown by 11.8% in 2005. This estimated growth rate was based on a new methodology which is being analysed by ECLAC and the Government of Cuba. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 167 Table A-3 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PER CAPITA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Annual growth rates) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005a Latin America and the Caribbean 2.0 3.8 0.9 -1.2 2.3 -1.3 -2.3 0.5 4.3 2.8 Latin America 2.0 3.8 0.9 -1.3 2.3 -1.3 -2.4 0.4 4.4 2.8 Argentina 4.3 6.9 2.7 -4.4 -1.8 -5.4 -11.7 7.8 8.0 7.6 Bolivia 1.9 2.5 2.5 -1.9 0.1 -0.6 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 Brazil 1.1 1.7 -1.4 -0.7 2.8 -0.2 0.5 -0.9 3.4 1.1 Chile 5.8 5.1 1.9 -2.0 3.2 2.2 1.0 2.6 4.9 4.9 Colombia 0.1 1.5 -1.3 -6.0 1.1 -0.3 0.2 2.5 2.3 2.6 Costa Rica -1.6 2.9 5.7 5.7 -0.5 -1.0 0.9 4.5 2.3 2.3 Cuba 7.3 2.3 -0.3 5.9 5.7 2.6 1.2 2.6 2.7 ... Dominican Republic 5.3 6.3 5.6 6.3 6.3 1.9 2.7 -3.5 0.3 5.4 Ecuador 0.7 2.4 0.6 -7.6 1.3 3.6 1.9 1.2 5.4 1.5 El Salvador -0.4 2.1 1.6 1.4 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.7 Guatemala 0.6 2.0 2.6 1.5 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.7 Haití 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.8 -1.0 -2.8 -2.3 -1.3 -5.5 -0.3 Honduras 0.7 2.1 0.1 -4.5 3.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.7 Mexico 3.4 5.0 3.3 2.1 5.0 -1.5 -0.7 0.0 2.8 1.6 Nicaragua 4.1 1.9 1.7 4.9 2.0 0.9 -1.3 0.2 3.1 1.9 Panama 0.7 4.3 5.3 2.0 0.8 -1.3 0.4 2.3 5.7 4.2 Paraguay -2.2 0.3 -2.0 -4.0 -5.8 -0.5 -2.5 1.3 1.5 0.5 Peru 0.7 5.0 -2.4 -0.8 1.3 -1.4 3.4 2.4 3.3 4.5 Uruguay 4.8 4.3 3.8 -3.6 -2.2 -4.1 -11.7 1.5 11.5 5.3 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) -2.2 4.3 -1.6 -7.8 1.8 1.5 -10.5 -9.3 15.8 7.1 The Caribbean 2.4 2.3 3.6 2.5 2.7 0.9 2.2 5.2 3.4 3.6 Antigua and Barbuda 4.5 2.8 2.4 2.3 -0.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 4.0 2.8 Bahamas 2.5 3.3 5.2 2.5 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.1 Barbados 2.7 4.3 6.0 0.0 2.4 -3.0 -0.3 2.1 4.7 2.5 Belize -1.2 1.0 1.2 6.2 10.3 2.3 2.4 6.9 2.4 0.9 Dominica 2.2 1.1 2.0 1.0 0.8 -4.5 -5.2 -0.2 3.3 2.3 Grenada 4.4 4.8 7.7 6.6 6.7 -5.1 0.4 7.4 -3.1 8.5 Guyana 15.7 1.8 0.5 -0.3 4.7 -0.3 -0.6 0.5 1.5 -3.0 Jamaica -1.9 -2.6 -1.1 -1.2 0.0 1.1 0.5 1.8 0.4 1.0 Saint Kitts and Nevis 6.8 7.5 0.9 3.4 3.8 1.2 -0.1 1.0 5.0 3.9 Saint Lucia 1.8 -1.3 5.3 1.5 -1.5 -6.3 1.1 3.5 2.8 7.0 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 0.8 2.3 4.6 3.9 1.3 0.3 3.4 3.6 4.8 2.2 Suriname 5.1 2.6 3.5 -3.2 -0.4 0.5 0.5 2.8 7.1 4.5 Trinidad and Tobago 6.5 7.2 7.7 7.7 6.5 3.8 6.5 12.3 6.1 6.7 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures converted into dollars at constant 2000 prices. a Preliminary figures. 168 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table A-4 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION (Percentages of GDP) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005a Latin America and the Caribbean 18.7 20.2 20.6 19.3 19.3 18.7 17.8 17.5 18.6 19.6 Argentina 16.8 18.3 18.9 17.5 16.2 14.1 10.2 12.8 15.8 17.4 Bolivia 16.2 19.3 23.7 20.0 17.9 13.8 15.9 14.0 13.1 13.6 Brazil 19.9 21.1 21.0 19.2 19.3 19.2 18.3 17.4 18.2 18.4 Chile 23.7 24.6 24.2 19.9 20.7 20.9 20.8 21.2 22.6 26.6 Colombia 22.0 20.9 19.4 13.1 12.6 13.4 14.5 17.2 18.6 21.3 Costa Rica 16.2 17.9 20.8 18.3 17.8 18.0 18.6 18.9 17.5 17.1 Cuba 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.4 12.9 12.1 10.8 9.8 10.3 ... Dominican Republic 17.1 18.9 22.5 23.9 23.5 23.0 22.4 20.0 18.3 17.9 Ecuador 24.2 23.9 24.3 18.8 20.5 21.9 24.8 23.8 23.3 24.7 El Salvador 15.6 16.2 17.3 16.5 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.1 16.3 16.8 Guatemala 13.4 15.9 17.9 18.2 16.1 16.1 16.4 15.4 15.2 15.1 Haiti 22.5 23.5 24.2 25.4 25.7 25.8 26.5 26.6 26.4 24.6 Honduras 22.8 25.0 27.1 30.1 26.1 23.6 21.5 22.7 25.3 23.6 Mexico 16.7 18.9 19.8 20.5 21.4 20.2 19.9 19.7 20.3 21.0 Nicaragua 24.5 26.3 27.1 34.4 29.8 27.5 25.6 25.1 26.6 26.7 Panama 20.3 20.5 21.9 23.4 21.2 15.7 14.5 17.1 17.7 17.2 Paraguay 24.0 23.0 19.5 17.0 17.5 16.1 15.1 15.6 15.6 15.4 Peru 23.3 25.1 24.9 22.0 20.3 18.6 17.6 17.8 18.5 19.0 Uruguay 14.8 15.4 15.7 14.8 13.2 12.4 9.8 8.6 10.0 11.1 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 19.6 22.6 23.6 21.3 21.0 23.1 20.6 14.2 17.2 20.9 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures converted into dollars at constant 2000 prices. a Preliminary figures. Table A-5 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: FINANCING OF GROSS DOMESTIC INVESTMENT a (Percentages of GDP) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 b 1. Domestic saving 20.8 21.1 19.8 19.4 20.6 19.0 20.2 21.4 23.3 24.1 2. Net factor income -2.4 -2.4 -2.6 -2.9 -2.7 -2.8 -3.2 -3.4 -3.4 -3.0 3. Net transfers 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.0 4. Gross national saving 19.3 19.5 18.0 17.6 18.9 17.5 18.7 20.0 22.0 23.1 5. External saving c 2.1 3.3 4.5 3.1 2.4 2.7 0.8 -0.5 -0.9 -1.3 6. Gross domestic investment 21.4 22.7 22.5 20.7 21.3 20.3 19.6 19.5 21.0 21.8 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Based on coefficients calculated in local currency and converted into current dollars. b Preliminary figures. c These percentages may differ from the figures for the current account balance (with the sign reversed) relative to GDP given in table A-7. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 169 Table A-6 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (Millions of dollars) Exports Imports Goods balance, f.o.b. Services balance of goods, f.o.b. of goods, f.o.b. 2003 2004 2005 d 2003 2004 2005 d 2003 2004 2005 d 2003 2004 2005 d Latin America and the Caribbean 378 206 464 362 552 768 333 513 406 002 477 086 44 693 58 359 75 683 -13 240 -14 569 -20 604 Argentina 29 939 34 550 40 078 13 134 21 311 27 704 16 805 13 239 12 374 -1 395 -1 644 -1 847 Bolivia 1 598 2 146 2 575 1 616 1 844 2 268 -18 302 307 -69 -76 -250 Brazil 73 084 96 475 117 700 48 290 62 809 73 487 24 794 33 666 44 213 -4 931 -4 677 -8 290 Chile 21 524 32 025 39 711 18 002 23 006 30 598 3 522 9 019 9 113 -617 -580 -537 Colombia 13 825 17 246 22 075 13 258 15 878 20 006 567 1 368 2 069 -1 441 -1 801 -2 282 Costa Rica 6 163 6 370 7 090 7 294 7 833 8 968 -1 131 -1 463 -1 879 839 933 1 268 Dominican Republic 5 471 5 748 5 988 7 627 7 844 9 542 -2 156 -2 096 -3 554 2 249 2 291 2 482 Ecuador 6 381 7 910 9 888 6 294 7 497 9 297 86 413 591 -734 -969 -1 193 Grenada 3 153 3 330 3 534 5 428 5 949 6 466 -2 276 -2 619 -2 932 -180 -109 -102 Guyana 3 060 3 430 3 873 6 176 7 189 7 810 -3 116 -3 760 -3 938 -68 -115 -200 Haiti 333 378 480 1 116 1 183 1 285 -783 -805 -805 -166 -203 -221 Jamaica 2 094 2 411 2 556 3 059 3 678 4 120 -965 -1 267 -1 564 -181 -224 -217 Mexico 164 766 187 999 210 470 170 546 196 810 220 513 -5 779 -8 811 -10 043 -4 601 -4 649 -5 908 Nicaragua 1 050 1 363 1 543 2 021 2 452 2 912 -972 -1 089 -1 368 -106 -110 -133 Panama 5 049 5 886 6 592 6 162 7 471 8 592 -1 113 -1 585 -2 000 1 254 1 295 1 420 Paraguay 2 175 2 706 2 761 2 450 3 116 3 428 -275 -410 -667 237 235 294 Peru 9 091 12 617 16 907 8 255 9 824 12 084 836 2 793 4 823 -854 -843 -958 Uruguay 2 281 3 025 3 539 2 098 2 990 3 588 183 35 -49 167 302 270 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 27 170 38 748 55 410 10 687 17 318 24 418 16 483 21 430 30 991 -2 644 -3 626 -4 201 Table A-6 (continued) Current transfers Current account Trade balance Income balance balance balance 2003 2004 2005 d 2003 2004 2005 d 2003 2004 2005 d 2003 2004 2005 d Latin America and the Caribbean 31 453 43 790 55 079 -57 743 -66 767 -72 811 34 862 41 276 47 403 8 571 18 299 29 670 Argentina 15 410 11 595 10 527 -7 970 -8 950 -6 544 579 687 671 8 019 3 332 4 655 Bolivia -87 226 57 -302 -385 -401 451 444 394 62 285 50 Brazil 19 863 28 990 35 923 -18 552 -20 520 -24 500 2 867 3 268 3 553 4 177 11 738 14 976 Chile 2 905 8 439 8 576 -4 606 -8 101 -9 660 599 1 051 1 353 -1 102 1 390 269 Colombia -874 -434 -213 -3 446 -4 183 -4 502 3 333 3 650 4 375 -987 -967 -341 Costa Rica -293 -530 -611 -849 -517 -673 213 216 253 -929 -831 -1 031 Dominican Republic 93 194 -1 072 -1 393 -1 634 -1 847 2 336 2 528 2 680 1 036 1 088 -240 Ecuador -648 -556 -601 -1 465 -1 493 -1 595 1 772 1 894 2 075 -340 -155 -122 Grenada -2 456 -2 728 -3 034 -422 -460 -483 2 114 2 576 2 857 -764 -612 -661 Guyana -3 183 -3 875 -4 137 -318 -319 -360 2 462 3 006 3 247 -1 039 -1 188 -1 250 Haiti -949 -1 009 -1 026 -14 -12 -30 918 993 1 120 -45 -27 64 Jamaica -1 146 -1 491 -1 780 -252 -279 -288 1 106 1 379 1 600 -292 -391 -468 Mexico -10 380 -13 460 -15 951 -12 093 -10 854 -13 594 13 858 17 044 20 245 -8 615 -7 271 -9 300 Nicaragua -1 078 -1 198 -1 501 -191 -192 -129 519 659 766 -749 -732 -865 Panama 141 -290 -580 -820 -1 042 -1 150 241 228 215 -437 -1 104 -1 515 Paraguay -38 -174 -373 -4 10 10 165 194 194 122 30 -169 Peru -18 1 950 3 865 -2 144 -3 421 -4 350 1 227 1 461 1 828 -935 -10 1 342 Uruguay 350 337 221 -491 -531 -514 82 89 97 -58 -105 -197 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 13 839 17 804 26 791 -2 411 -3 885 -2 200 20 -89 -120 11 448 13 830 24 471 170 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table A-6 (concluded) Capital and Overall balance Reserve assets Other financing c financial balance a (variation) b 2003 2004 2005 d 2003 2004 2005 d 2003 2004 2005 d 2003 2004 2005 d Latin America and the Caribbean 2 237 -7 224 12 645 10 808 11 075 42 315 -29 501 -21 132 -34 986 18 693 10 058 -7 328 Argentina -17 055 -10 283 3 621 -9 037 -6 951 8 276 -3 581 -5 320 -8 390 12 618 12 271 114 Bolivia 15 -159 171 77 126 222 -93 -138 -191 16 13 -31 Brazil -451 -5 131 4 843 3 726 6 607 19 819 -8 496 -2 244 -12 000 4 769 -4 363 -7 819 Chile 737 -1 580 3 -366 -191 273 366 191 -273 0 0 0 Colombia 804 3 508 1 730 -184 2 541 1 389 184 -2 541 -1 389 0 0 0 Costa Rica 1 268 912 1 321 339 80 290 -339 -80 -290 0 0 0 Dominican Republic -1 583 -541 1 106 -546 546 867 358 -542 -1 410 189 -4 543 Ecuador 461 436 631 120 281 509 -152 -277 -495 32 -4 -14 Grenada 1 080 572 593 316 -40 -67 -316 40 67 0 0 0 Guyana 1 589 1 797 1 529 550 609 279 -550 -609 -279 0 0 0 Haiti 37 63 -41 -8 35 23 25 -50 -12 -17 15 -11 Jamaica 65 759 496 -227 368 28 88 -504 -178 139 136 150 Mexico 18 053 11 329 14 800 9 438 4 058 5 500 -9 438 -4 058 -5 500 0 0 0 Nicaragua 280 -793 826 -470 -1 524 -39 -69 -166 39 538 1 691 0 Panama 284 709 1 834 -153 -395 319 163 396 -309 -10 -1 -10 Paraguay 109 238 276 231 268 107 -301 -179 -107 70 -89 0 Peru 1 459 2 427 -203 525 2 417 1 139 -516 -2 443 -1 239 -9 26 100 Uruguay 1 092 447 578 1 033 342 381 -1 380 -454 -31 347 112 -350 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) -6 005 -11 932 -21 471 5 443 1 898 3 000 -5 454 -2 153 -3 000 11 255 0 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and national sources. a Includes errors and omissions. b A minus sign (-) indicates an increase in reserve assets. c Includes the use of IMF credit and loans and exceptional financing. d Preliminary figures. Table A-7 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CURRENT ACCOUNT OF THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS a (Percentages of GDP) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 b Latin America and the Caribbean -2.1 -3.3 -4.5 -3.1 -2.4 -2.7 -0.8 0.5 0.9 1.3 Argentina -2.5 -4.2 -4.9 -4.2 -3.2 -1.2 8.5 6.2 2.2 2.5 Bolivia -5.1 -7.0 -7.8 -5.9 -5.3 -3.4 -4.4 0.8 3.3 0.5 Brazil -3.0 -3.8 -4.3 -4.7 -4.0 -4.6 -1.7 0.8 1.9 1.9 Chile -4.1 -4.4 -4.9 0.1 -1.2 -1.6 -0.9 -1.5 1.5 0.2 Colombia -4.8 -5.4 -4.9 0.8 0.9 -1.3 -1.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.3 Costa Rica -2.2 -3.7 -3.7 -4.2 -4.4 -4.0 -5.4 -5.3 -4.5 -5.1 Dominican Republic -1.6 -1.1 -2.1 -2.5 -5.2 -3.4 -3.7 6.3 5.9 -0.8 Ecuador -0.3 -1.9 -9.0 5.5 5.8 -3.3 -5.8 -1.3 -0.5 -0.4 Grenada -1.6 -0.9 -0.8 -1.9 -3.3 -1.1 -2.8 -5.1 -3.9 -3.9 Guyana -2.9 -3.6 -5.4 -5.6 -5.4 -6.0 -5.3 -4.2 -4.4 -3.9 Haiti -4.6 -1.5 -1.0 -1.4 -3.0 -3.8 -2.8 -1.6 -0.8 1.5 Jamaica -8.2 -5.8 -2.8 -4.4 -4.6 -4.7 -3.7 -4.2 -5.2 -5.7 Mexico -0.8 -1.9 -3.8 -2.9 -3.1 -2.8 -2.1 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2 Nicaragua -24.8 -24.8 -19.2 -24.8 -20.0 -19.7 -19.1 -18.1 -16.1 -17.3 Panama -2.2 -5.0 -9.3 -10.1 -5.9 -1.5 -0.8 -3.4 -8.4 -9.8 Paraguay -4.0 -7.3 -2.0 -2.3 -2.3 -4.1 1.8 2.2 0.4 -2.3 Peru -6.5 -5.7 -5.9 -2.8 -2.9 -2.1 -2.0 -1.5 0.0 1.7 Uruguay -1.1 -1.3 -2.1 -2.4 -2.8 -2.7 3.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.2 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 13.1 4.3 -4.9 2.2 10.1 1.6 8.2 13.7 12.6 19.2 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund and national institutions. a These percentages may differ from the figures for external saving (with the sign reversed) given in table A-5. b Preliminary figures. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 171 Table A-8 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS, f.o.b. (Annual growth rates) Exports Imports Value Volume Unit value Value Volume Unit value 1996 12.2 12.5 -0.3 11.5 15.6 -3.6 1997 11.4 11.3 0.1 18.9 21.7 -2.3 1998 -1.2 7.3 -7.9 6.2 10.9 -4.3 1999 5.7 6.5 -0.8 -3.8 0.3 -4.1 2000 19.9 11.3 7.7 16.1 14.0 1.9 2001 -4.3 2.5 -6.6 -2.3 0.7 -3.0 2002 1.0 0.9 0.2 -7.0 -6.8 -0.2 2003 9.0 3.9 4.9 3.2 0.5 2.7 2004 22.8 9.6 12.0 21.7 14.5 6.3 2005 a 19.0 7.7 10.6 17.5 11.4 5.5 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). a Preliminary figures. Table A-9 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EXPORTS OF GOODS, f.o.b. (Indices: 2000=100) Value Volume Unit value 2003 2004 2005a 2003 2004 2005 a 2003 2004 2005a Latin America and the Caribbean 105.3 129.3 154.0 107.4 117.7 126.8 98.1 109.9 121.5 Argentina 113.7 131.2 152.2 112.6 118.1 136.3 101.0 111.0 111.6 Bolivia 128.2 172.2 206.7 127.8 151.9 167.2 100.4 113.4 123.6 Brazil 132.7 175.1 213.7 137.7 163.8 181.6 96.3 106.9 117.6 Chile 112.0 166.7 206.7 116.7 133.6 142.8 96.0 124.8 144.7 Colombia 100.7 125.7 160.9 107.7 110.1 123.7 93.5 114.1 130.1 Costa Rica 106.0 109.6 122.0 114.2 115.7 130.1 92.8 94.7 93.7 Dominican Republic 95.4 100.2 104.4 96.0 97.3 98.9 99.3 103.0 105.6 Ecuador 124.2 154.0 192.5 136.7 158.4 160.9 90.9 97.2 119.6 El Salvador 106.4 112.4 119.3 111.7 113.4 115.7 95.3 99.1 103.1 Guatemala 99.3 111.3 125.7 108.2 112.3 120.7 91.8 99.1 104.1 Haiti 100.4 113.9 144.8 100.1 108.0 133.4 100.4 105.4 108.6 Honduras 104.1 119.9 127.1 133.6 143.8 146.6 77.9 83.4 86.7 Mexico 99.0 112.9 126.4 99.3 104.9 109.8 99.7 107.6 115.2 Nicaragua 119.2 154.8 175.2 139.9 171.4 184.8 85.2 90.3 94.8 Panama 86.5 100.8 112.9 88.4 100.1 111.0 97.8 100.8 101.8 Paraguay 93.4 116.2 118.5 95.2 107.7 111.3 98.1 107.9 106.5 Peru 130.7 181.4 243.1 127.2 150.1 171.9 102.8 120.9 141.4 Uruguay 95.7 126.9 148.5 97.6 119.8 138.8 98.1 105.9 107.0 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 81.0 115.6 165.3 81.2 90.5 95.1 99.8 127.8 173.8 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and national institutions. a Preliminary figures. 172 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table A-10 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: IMPORTS OF GOODS, f.o.b. (Indices 2000=100) Value Volume Unit value 2003 2004 2005 a 2003 2004 2005 a 2003 2004 2005 a Latin America and the Caribbean 93.8 114.2 134.2 94.3 108.0 120.3 99.4 105.7 111.5 Argentina 55.0 89.2 116.0 58.4 87.7 109.7 94.2 101.7 105.8 Bolivia 100.4 114.5 140.9 98.5 105.1 124.8 101.9 109.0 112.9 Brazil 86.6 112.6 131.7 87.1 103.0 110.6 99.3 109.3 119.1 Chile 105.3 134.6 179.0 112.8 134.7 165.9 93.4 99.9 107.9 Colombia 119.6 143.2 180.4 121.7 136.2 161.9 98.3 105.1 111.5 Costa Rica 121.1 130.0 148.9 124.5 126.2 137.6 97.2 103.1 108.2 Dominican Republic 80.5 82.8 100.7 79.3 77.7 90.0 101.4 106.5 111.8 Ecuador 168.2 200.3 248.4 166.1 188.5 218.4 101.2 106.3 113.7 El Salvador 115.4 126.5 137.5 118.3 123.5 127.9 97.5 102.4 107.5 Guatemala 130.2 151.6 164.7 132.0 140.9 141.8 98.7 107.6 116.2 Haiti 102.7 108.8 118.3 101.0 99.1 99.7 101.7 109.8 118.6 Honduras 114.6 137.8 154.3 129.4 144.1 150.8 88.6 95.7 102.3 Mexico 97.8 112.8 126.4 96.9 106.5 114.8 100.8 105.9 110.1 Nicaragua 112.2 136.1 161.6 110.7 124.3 136.7 101.4 109.5 118.2 Panama 88.3 107.0 123.1 87.7 101.3 113.1 100.7 105.7 108.9 Paraguay 85.5 108.7 119.6 88.4 105.0 108.0 96.7 103.5 110.8 Peru 112.1 133.4 164.0 111.5 122.8 137.4 100.5 108.6 119.4 Uruguay 63.4 90.3 108.4 69.4 92.4 100.8 91.4 97.8 107.5 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 63.4 102.7 144.8 62.7 94.9 128.7 101.1 108.2 112.5 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and national institutions. a Preliminary figures. Table A-11 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TERMS OF TRADE FOR GOODS, f.o.b./f.o.b. (Indices: 2000=100) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005a Latin America and the Caribbean 92.8 95.0 91.5 94.6 100.0 96.3 96.6 98.7 103.9 108.9 Argentina 103.5 102.2 96.6 90.9 100.0 99.3 98.7 107.2 109.2 105.5 Bolivia 108.0 107.9 102.0 97.1 100.0 95.8 96.2 98.5 104.1 109.5 Brazil 107.1 113.6 111.9 97.0 100.0 99.6 98.4 97.0 97.9 98.8 Chile 89.4 94.5 91.0 94.2 100.0 93.3 97.2 102.8 124.9 134.1 Colombia 84.3 93.3 81.2 87.2 100.0 94.2 92.5 95.2 108.5 116.7 Costa Rica 102.1 125.9 117.5 106.9 100.0 98.4 96.9 95.5 91.9 86.6 Dominican Republic 103.5 106.1 108.0 105.7 100.0 100.9 101.5 97.9 96.7 94.4 Ecuador 80.5 89.1 75.8 89.1 100.0 84.6 86.8 89.8 91.5 105.2 El Salvador 97.1 95.0 95.8 99.6 100.0 102.5 101.6 97.7 96.8 95.8 Guatemala 92.7 97.9 115.3 101.9 100.0 96.7 95.8 93.0 92.1 89.6 Haiti 98.6 101.4 107.6 104.2 100.0 101.2 100.2 98.7 96.0 91.5 Honduras 145.4 125.5 108.9 107.5 100.0 94.8 92.0 88.0 87.2 84.7 Mexico 90.8 89.5 90.6 99.3 100.0 97.4 97.9 98.8 101.6 104.6 Nicaragua 84.4 82.0 79.6 95.3 100.0 88.4 87.0 84.1 82.5 80.2 Panama 105.5 103.9 104.7 104.6 100.0 102.7 101.6 97.2 95.3 93.5 Paraguay 104.7 106.2 108.0 101.7 100.0 100.2 96.7 101.4 104.3 96.2 Peru 104.9 115.5 103.4 100.8 100.0 95.6 98.4 102.2 111.3 118.4 Uruguay 108.6 110.2 116.7 106.2 100.0 103.8 104.8 107.4 108.4 99.5 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 67.1 70.1 51.2 66.1 100.0 82.2 87.6 98.7 118.1 154.4 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and national institutions. a Preliminary figures. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 173 Table A-12 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: NET RESOURCE TRANSFERS a (Millions of dollars) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 b Latin America and the Caribbean 22 044 32 559 27 837 -1 594 -113 -3 437 -41 527 -36 813 -63 934 -67 494 Argentina 5 195 9 309 10 559 5 678 1 028 -16 030 -20 668 -12 408 -6 962 -2 808 Bolivia 482 447 637 324 182 34 -130 -271 -532 -260 Brazil 19 397 5 863 7 222 -1 227 4 078 6 778 -10 252 -14 234 -30 014 -27 477 Chile 1 684 4 362 -162 -3 079 -1 621 -2 022 -2 068 -3 870 -9 681 -9 656 Colombia 4 308 3 703 1 763 -2 339 -2 165 -304 -1 369 -2 643 -675 -2 773 Costa Rica 2 448 -97 -674 -699 -79 562 419 395 648 Dominican Republic -527 -593 -453 -352 -85 168 -880 -2 787 -2 180 -198 Ecuador -738 -316 467 -2 715 -2 020 -776 28 -972 -1 061 -978 El Salvador 244 297 231 165 132 -293 -42 657 112 110 Guatemala 421 653 1 118 696 1 494 1 642 938 1 271 1 478 1 169 Haiti 79 85 56 80 45 129 26 5 65 -82 Jamaica 92 368 173 528 161 280 262 -48 617 358 Mexico -9 169 6 073 5 371 2 604 6 194 11 161 8 502 5 960 475 1 206 Nicaragua 554 749 471 888 573 442 652 627 706 697 Panama 249 718 479 652 4 204 -39 -545 -334 674 Paraguay 423 478 189 287 -30 237 -134 175 160 286 Peru 3 532 3 037 975 -633 -324 318 468 -693 -968 -4 453 Uruguay 185 486 793 480 728 707 -2 601 948 28 -287 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) -4 368 -3 606 -1 955 -2 957 -7 792 -6 035 -14 782 -8 405 -15 562 -23 671 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and national institutions. a The net transfer of resources is equal to total net capital inflows minus the income balance (net payments of profits and interest). Total net capital inflows correspond to the capital and financial accounts, plus errors and omissions, and the use of IMF credit and loans and exceptional financing. Negative figures indicate net outward resource transfers. b Preliminary figures. 174 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table A-13 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TOTAL NET CAPITAL INFLOWS AND NET RESOURCE TRANSFERS a (Billions of dollars and percentages) Total net capital inflows Net resource transfer Balance Net Exports as a percentage of on income resources of goods exports of goods account b transfers and services and services Autonomous c Non-autonomous d Total (5) = (3) + (4) (7) = (5) / (6) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) 1980 29.2 1.7 30.9 -18.9 12.0 106.9 11.3 1981 38.4 1.8 40.1 -29.1 11.1 115.6 9.6 1982 3.3 17.2 20.5 -38.9 -18.4 105.2 -17.5 1983 -22.3 30.1 7.9 34.5 42.4 105.4 40.2 1984 -10.9 23.9 13.0 -37.5 -24.5 117.5 -20.8 1985 -16.4 20.3 3.9 -35.5 -31.6 112.8 -28.1 1986 -12.4 21.9 9.4 -32.7 -23.3 99.2 -23.4 1987 -13.2 25.6 12.4 -31.0 -18.6 113.4 -16.4 1988 -19.8 22.8 3.0 -34.6 -31.6 130.6 -24.2 1989 -18.8 29.0 10.2 -39.0 -28.8 145.8 -19.7 1990 -5.5 21.6 16.1 -34.2 -18.1 162.0 -11.2 1991 23.3 11.8 35.1 -31.4 3.7 164.2 2.3 1992 48.6 7.5 56.1 -30.1 26.1 177.0 14.7 1993 68.4 -1.9 66.4 -34.5 32.0 193.5 16.5 1994 41.2 5.8 47.0 -36.1 11.0 222.5 4.9 1995 29.3 31.6 61.0 -40.8 20.2 265.9 7.6 1996 63.9 0.9 64.8 -42.7 22.0 295.0 7.5 1997 89.2 -9.0 80.2 -47.7 32.6 327.3 9.9 1998 63.4 15.7 79.1 -51.3 27.8 327.1 8.5 1999 42.6 6.1 48.7 -50.3 -1.6 343.0 -0.5 2000 61.2 -7.7 53.5 -53.6 -0.1 408.4 0.0 2001 34.0 16.4 50.5 -53.9 -3.4 391.7 -0.9 2002 -12.1 22.6 10.5 -52.1 -41.5 394.0 -10.5 2003 2.2 18.7 20.9 -57.7 -36.8 428.4 -8.6 2004 -7.2 10.1 2.8 -66.8 -63.9 521.9 -12.3 2005 e 12.6 -7.3 5.3 -72.8 -67.5 620.0 -10.9 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and national institutions. a Includes information for 19 Latin American and Caribbean countries: Argentina, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay. b Corresponds to net payments of profits and interest. c Includes errors and omissions. d Includes the use of IMF credit and loans and exceptional financing, which includes transactions such as external debt forgiveness and accumulation of arrears. e Preliminary figures. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 175 Table A-14 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: RATIO OF TOTAL ACCRUED INTEREST TO EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES a (Percentages) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 b Latin America and the Caribbean 16.0 15.5 16.8 16.2 14.2 14.7 12.9 11.8 9.9 6.0 Argentina 27.7 28.9 34.4 41.0 40.0 39.4 35.8 29.2 24.6 15.2 Bolivia 14.2 14.8 15.0 15.7 14.3 21.3 19.2 18.5 18.2 17.0 Brazil 25.3 26.0 30.5 31.6 26.5 26.4 21.9 18.9 15.3 13.7 Chile 7.2 7.3 8.2 7.9 8.2 7.7 6.6 5.3 4.1 0.0 Colombia 16.2 18.7 19.8 18.3 16.9 17.1 17.6 15.3 12.8 10.8 Costa Rica 4.8 4.6 3.6 3.2 4.1 5.1 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.8 Dominican Republic 3.9 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.6 4.6 0.0 Ecuador 16.4 15.8 21.1 21.1 19.9 19.0 16.9 15.4 13.1 10.5 El Salvador 6.1 8.2 8.0 8.7 8.6 9.3 9.8 11.3 11.4 12.6 Guatemala 5.0 4.6 4.2 3.7 4.7 5.6 6.2 5.3 5.4 5.9 Haiti 5.4 3.6 2.4 2.4 1.8 2.1 3.2 3.0 2.3 4.8 Jamaica 11.3 9.2 8.0 8.6 7.5 6.5 5.7 4.9 3.9 3.4 Mexico 12.6 10.5 9.7 8.7 7.6 8.0 7.4 7.2 6.2 0.0 Nicaragua 40.0 25.1 16.2 17.2 14.8 15.9 12.1 9.2 7.4 3.5 Panama 17.0 15.7 19.0 20.6 20.1 17.6 13.6 11.5 10.2 10.1 Paraguay 2.1 2.4 2.0 3.1 5.3 6.2 4.7 4.1 3.3 0.0 Peru 25.3 19.5 23.7 23.0 21.6 19.7 14.6 12.6 10.0 8.2 Uruguay 15.9 16.6 18.0 20.9 20.6 24.5 24.5 20.2 19.1 17.7 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 11.2 12.9 14.7 12.6 8.6 9.7 8.5 7.9 5.4 4.5 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Includes interest paid (without deducting interest received) and interest due but not paid. b Preliminary figures. Table A-15 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: RATIO OF PROFIT PAYMENTS TO EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES a (Percentages) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 b Latin America and the Caribbean 5.2 6.1 6.4 5.0 5.6 5.0 4.4 5.5 6.3 3.9 Argentina 7.3 8.8 8.9 7.5 7.9 2.5 0.4 3.1 6.4 6.9 Bolivia 3.0 5.7 6.0 10.9 10.1 ...... Brazil 7.6 10.3 11.0 9.3 6.6 7.4 8.5 7.2 6.3 7.1 Chile 9.4 10.0 6.9 7.0 10.9 10.0 10.8 17.4 21.2 ... Colombia 4.9 4.0 -0.2 -2.1 4.2 6.2 7.4 10.0 12.0 10.8 Costa Rica 1.8 3.4 5.6 20.9 14.7 8.2 4.9 7.8 3.8 4.2 Dominican Republic 9.8 10.1 11.1 12.1 11.9 13.0 14.0 15.6 16.5 ... Ecuador 3.4 3.2 4.6 4.7 4.7 5.9 5.0 5.0 4.1 4.6 El Salvador ...... 1.0 3.5 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.0 Guatemala 4.6 5.1 3.7 4.3 5.8 4.4 5.7 6.6 5.2 4.8 Haiti -0.2 ...... Jamaica 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.0 2.8 4.3 4.3 6.3 6.8 7.1 Mexico 3.8 3.1 4.1 2.4 4.0 3.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 ... Nicaragua 6.2 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.3 6.9 6.3 5.9 4.8 ... Panama 5.5 6.1 7.8 10.1 7.4 7.3 2.6 9.4 11.1 9.3 Paraguay 1.8 3.8 4.3 3.6 2.9 3.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 ... Peru 9.3 11.0 2.9 0.2 4.1 1.5 5.2 10.3 15.9 17.2 Uruguay 0.9 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.4 3.1 -11.7 3.6 3.3 3.1 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 1.7 6.6 11.4 3.9 4.1 6.7 7.0 6.7 8.2 5.0 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and national institutions. a Includes reinvestment of profits. b Preliminary figures. 176 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table A-16 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: NET FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT a b (Millions of dollars) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 c Latin America and the Caribbean 40 301 57 599 63 677 79 345 68 876 65 124 43 225 32 600 45 351 47 319 Argentina d 5 348 5 507 4 965 22 257 9 517 2 005 2 776 878 3 923 5 200 Bolivia 472 728 947 1 008 734 703 674 195 114 103 Brazil 11 667 18 608 29 192 26 886 30 498 24 715 14 108 9 894 8 695 14 000 Chile 3 681 3 809 3 144 6 203 873 2 590 2 207 2 501 6 660 5 195 Colombia 2 784 4 753 2 033 1 392 2 069 2 509 1 258 863 2 909 3 716 Costa Rica 421 404 608 614 404 447 624 547 557 609 Dominican Republic 97 421 700 1 338 953 1 079 917 613 758 899 Ecuador 500 724 870 648 720 1 330 1 275 1 555 1 160 1 530 El Salvador e -7 59 1 103 162 178 289 496 154 459 457 Guatemala 77 84 673 155 230 456 111 131 155 168 Haiti 4 4 11 30 13 4 6 14 6 7 Honduras 91 122 99 237 282 193 176 247 293 190 Mexico f 9 186 12 831 11 897 13 055 16 075 23 331 16 192 10 966 14 420 11 250 Nicaragua 120 203 218 337 267 150 204 201 186 230 Panama 416 1 299 1 203 864 700 405 99 792 1 012 750 Paraguay 144 230 336 89 98 78 12 30 64 64 Peru 3 488 2 054 1 582 1 812 810 1 070 2 156 1 275 1 816 2 141 Uruguay 137 113 155 238 274 291 180 401 300 312 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 1 676 5 645 3 942 2 018 4 180 3 479 -244 1 341 1 866 500 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and national institutions. a Refers to direct invesment in the reporting economy, minus direct investment abroad by reporting-economy residents (both excluding disinvestment). Includes reinvested profits. b In accordance with the fifth edition of the IMF Balance of Payments Manual, all transactions between non-financial direct investment enterprises and their parent companies and affiliates are included in direct investment. c Preliminary figures. d For 1999, includes the value of the investment by REPSOL in Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales. Part of this amount corresponds to the purchase of shares in the company held by non-residents. In the balance of payments, the value of those shares is reflected as a debit under the portfolio investment item. e From 1998 onward the figures are not comparable, since up to 1997 no official records were kept. f For 2001, includes the value of the investment by Citigroup in BANAMEX; for 2004, includes investment in Bancomer. Table A-17 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: INTERNATIONAL BOND ISSUES (Millions of dollars) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 a Latin America and the Caribbean 54 504 55 635 40 406 44 107 40 255 38 503 20 208 37 906 36 383 33 859 Argentina 14 110 15 571 15 931 14 900 13 468 2 711 100 200 150 Barbados 200 150 200 Belize 125 100 Bolivia 108 Brazil 13 868 15 839 8 380 11 180 12 068 13 010 6 857 19 364 11 603 12 544 Chile 2 349 1 800 1 063 1 765 676 1 515 1 694 3 200 2 350 1 000 Colombia 2 615 1 605 1 385 1 676 1 622 4 329 695 1 545 1 545 1 785 Costa Rica 200 300 250 250 250 490 310 Dominican Republic 200 500 600 Ecuador 625 El Salvador 150 50 354 1 252 349 286 375 Grenada 100 Guatemala 150 325 300 380 Jamaica 75 225 250 422 812 300 814 800 Mexico 20 462 15 250 8 914 11 441 9 777 11 016 6 505 7 979 13 312 10 578 Panama 125 1 146 325 500 350 1 100 1 030 275 770 400 Paraguay 400 Peru 26 450 150 1 000 1 250 1 305 1 950 Trinidad and Tobago 150 230 250 100 Uruguay 100 479 550 350 641 856 400 350 862 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 625 2 295 3 259 1 215 482 1 575 2 354 3 050 3 115 Source: International Monetary Fund Research Department, Emerging Markets Studies Division and Merrill Lynch. a Data to September. Does not include US$ 784 million issued jointly by the Andean Development Corporation (ADC) and the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI). Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 177 Table A-18 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TOTAL GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT a (Millions of dollars) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 b Latin America and the Caribbean 653 665 687 896 751 080 762 744 738 382 744 082 733 112 758 126 760 376 679 183 Latin America 647 390 679 913 742 710 754 647 729 465 734 285 722 201 747 022 748 575 671 755 Argentina 114 423 129 964 147 634 152 563 155 015 166 272 156 748 164 918 171 115 118 663 Bolivia c 4 643 4 532 4 659 4 574 4 460 4 412 4 300 5 042 4 951 4 802 Brazil 179 935 199 998 223 792 225 610 216 921 209 934 210 711 214 930 201 373 191 309 Chile 26 272 29 034 32 591 34 758 37 177 38 538 40 675 43 359 43 283 44 333 Colombia 31 114 34 409 36 681 36 733 36 130 39 109 37 336 38 065 39 460 37 045 Costa Rica c 2 859 2 640 2 872 3 057 3 151 3 175 3 281 3 733 3 884 3 633 Cuba c 10 465 10 146 11 209 11 078 10 961 10 893 10 900 11 300 12 000 ... Dominican Republic c 3 807 3 572 3 546 3 661 3 682 4 177 4 536 5 987 6 380 6 448 Ecuador 14 586 15 099 16 401 16 282 13 564 14 411 16 288 16 595 17 010 17 603 El Salvador c 2 517 2 689 2 646 2 789 2 831 3 148 3 987 4 717 4 778 4 922 Guatemala c 2 075 2 135 2 368 2 631 2 644 2 925 3 119 3 467 3 844 3 766 Haiti c 914 1 025 1 104 1 162 1 170 1 189 1 212 1 287 1 316 ... Honduras 4 121 4 073 4 369 4 691 4 711 4 757 4 922 5 143 5 792 5 608 Mexico 157 200 149 028 160 258 166 381 148 652 144 526 134 728 132 021 130 531 131 737 Nicaragua c 6 094 6 001 6 287 6 549 6 660 6 374 6 363 6 596 5 391 5 280 Panama c 5 070 5 051 5 349 5 568 5 604 6 263 6 349 6 504 7 219 7 200 Paraguay 1 801 1 926 2 133 2 697 2 819 2 652 2 866 3 086 2 994 2 944 Peru 33 782 28 864 30 142 28 586 27 981 27 196 27 873 29 587 31 117 30 141 Uruguay d 11 595 12 485 13 582 8 261 8 895 8 937 10 548 11 013 11 593 11 217 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 34 117 37 242 35 087 37 016 36 437 35 398 35 460 39 672 44 546 45 104 The Caribbean 6 275 7 984 8 369 8 096 8 917 9 797 10 911 11 104 11 801 7 428 Antigua and Barbuda c 276 348 459 462 472 496 541 576 335 ... Bahamas c 286 335 323 338 349 328 309 362 343 289 Barbados c 481 428 453 492 605 539 755 737 792 747 Belize c ...... 260 252 434 487 575 750 841 ... Dominica c 102 89 94 133 154 181 209 230 245 ... Grenada c 86 93 107 116 135 183 321 343 410 ... Guyana c 1 537 1 513 1 516 1 210 1 195 1 193 1 246 1 092 1 078 1 065 Jamaica c 3 232 3 278 3 306 3 024 3 375 4 146 4 348 4 192 5 120 4 952 Saint Kitts and Nevis c 59 108 124 153 162 206 261 367 322 ... Saint Lucia c 128 139 155 170 197 203 259 330 362 ... Saint Vincent and the Grenadines c 86 89 101 160 160 170 170 192 221 ... Suriname c ...... 369 381 381 375 Trinidad and Tobago c ... 1 565 1 471 1 585 1 680 1 666 1 549 1 553 1 351 ... Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and national institutions. a Includes debt owed to the International Monetary Fund. b Data for the first semester. c Public external debt. d From 1999 on, the figures correspond to a new official series for the total debt which is not comparable with the preceding series, as it includes the private sector and does not include memorandum items on external liabilities and assets. 178 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table A-19 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: RATIO OF TOTAL GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT TO EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES (Percentages) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 a Latin America and the Caribbean 215 203 221 214 174 183 179 170 141 118 Latin America 216 205 224 217 176 185 181 172 141 118 Argentina 403 420 473 546 498 533 542 483 430 255 Bolivia b 354 321 344 349 303 290 276 257 194 161 Brazil 343 338 381 409 336 311 301 257 185 143 Chile 130 133 161 165 160 172 180 164 114 94 Colombia 236 242 273 263 229 260 263 242 202 150 Costa Rica b 59 49 42 37 41 46 46 46 45 37 Dominican Republic b 61 51 47 46 41 50 55 67 69 65 Ecuador 260 250 328 305 227 255 268 228 193 163 El Salvador b 114 92 87 88 77 88 105 118 111 106 Guatemala b 74 67 68 76 69 75 79 84 83 74 Haiti b 477 270 230 219 232 267 288 275 258 ... Honduras 214 186 180 210 189 196 196 191 189 172 Mexico 147 123 124 112 83 84 78 74 65 58 Nicaragua b 842 666 666 680 604 570 557 505 326 282 Panama b 68 60 65 78 72 78 84 86 84 75 Paraguay 41 48 51 93 96 108 118 112 91 86 Peru 463 345 400 372 330 321 301 274 214 158 Uruguay c 301 296 327 238 243 274 392 357 289 237 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 135 148 183 166 105 126 127 141 112 80 The Caribbean 75 69 70 62 57 66 75 67 62 75 Antigua and Barbuda b 69 78 98 97 101 112 124 126 64 ... Bahamas b 15 18 17 15 12 14 13 15 13 11 Barbados b 40 34 35 38 44 40 58 52 54 50 Belize b 0 0 80 67 113 108 116 142 160 ... Dominica b 84 65 62 85 106 150 169 194 188 ... Grenada b 66 67 65 53 57 93 186 191 211 ... Guyana b 213 204 220 180 177 180 187 156 147 158 Jamaica b 97 96 98 87 94 124 135 119 131 123 Saint Kitts and Nevis b 47 77 86 105 108 134 168 222 166 ... Saint Lucia b 36 39 40 46 52 62 81 85 76 ... Saint Vincent and the Grenadines b 58 60 64 91 89 96 95 111 120 ... Suriname b 0 0 0 0 0 0 91 70 49 41 Trinidad and Tobago b 0 52 50 46 35 34 34 26 18 ... Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and national institutions. a Preliminary figures. b Public external debt. c From 1999 on, the figures correspond to a new official series for the total debt which is not comparable with the preceding series, as it includes the private sector and does not include memorandum items on external liabilities and assets. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 179 Table A-20 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: STOCK EXCHANGE INDICES IN DOLLARS a (Indices: December 2000=100) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 b Latin America and the Caribbean 97.2 121.5 75.1 118.0 100.0 93.9 72.6 122.5 168.6 222.9 Argentina 119.1 139.7 100.0 133.3 100.0 69.1 34.8 79.4 97.4 141.1 Brazil 94.5 113.9 65.4 109.2 100.0 77.7 51.9 105.9 141.8 197.8 Chile 118.9 122.9 86.0 116.4 100.0 94.8 80.7 145.9 176.9 201.3 Colombia 324.2 402.3 227.0 181.5 100.0 125.1 137.3 174.7 376.4 602.1 Mexico 77.4 114.2 69.9 125.6 100.0 112.2 93.6 123.5 182.8 231.6 Peru 166.7 189.9 114.5 138.5 100.0 112.3 146.9 263.1 294.9 345.9 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 152.4 187.8 90.5 79.0 100.0 79.9 51.8 59.2 88.9 61.4 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from the International Finance Corporation. a Year-end values; overall index. b Figures to October. Table A-21 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES a (Index: 2000=100, deflated by CPI) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 b 2005 b c Latin America and the Caribbean d 105.2 99.8 98.6 100.0 100.0 99.1 106.8 112.2 113.2 111.4 Argentina 115.0 112.7 108.8 99.6 100.0 95.6 221.9 204.5 214.8 215.3 Barbados 102.5 98.1 100.6 101.0 100.0 98.4 100.1 103.4 107.9 107.7 e Bolivia 105.3 103.8 98.5 98.6 100.0 101.0 95.4 104.1 111.7 119.9 Brazil 71.2 69.9 72.3 108.0 100.0 119.7 130.5 130.6 124.6 103.6 Chile 97.1 90.8 92.5 98.2 100.0 111.2 109.1 114.5 106.9 103.4 Colombia 83.6 78.0 83.1 91.3 100.0 104.0 105.3 119.3 108.5 96.6 Costa Rica 100.9 100.9 114.0 101.7 100.0 97.1 97.6 103.6 106.5 107.8 Dominica 98.8 98.8 100.3 99.8 100.0 100.2 101.5 104.1 107.8 111.2 f Ecuador 68.3 65.8 65.0 88.8 100.0 71.4 62.6 61.1 63.7 66.8 El Salvador 106.5 104.0 101.9 100.4 100.0 99.6 99.6 101.1 101.0 101.8 Guatemala 94.8 88.3 88.1 98.7 100.0 95.7 88.5 88.2 85.6 79.8 Honduras 130.0 119.0 108.8 104.5 100.0 97.1 96.9 98.6 100.0 100.0 Jamaica 115.0 100.7 96.0 97.7 100.0 101.7 101.1 115.9 114.2 105.7 Mexico 138.5 119.9 118.9 108.8 100.0 93.4 92.9 104.5 109.5 106.8 Nicaragua 99.8 101.2 101.3 101.9 100.0 101.1 103.1 107.2 109.1 108.3 Panama 100.6 102.5 100.1 100.7 100.0 103.0 102.1 104.7 109.9 112.3 Paraguay 97.2 93.3 99.2 96.6 100.0 102.4 106.3 111.7 107.4 118.5 Peru 90.6 90.7 91.7 101.5 100.0 97.8 95.6 99.8 101.3 101.3 Trinidad and Tobago 104.7 107.9 105.3 102.2 100.0 94.5 91.1 91.1 92.5 91.5 Uruguay 111.2 108.5 107.0 98.3 100.0 101.2 117.0 150.3 151.8 137.9 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 177.2 141.4 116.5 102.6 100.0 95.2 123.7 136.8 143.2 143.9 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of figures from official sources and from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). a Annual averages. A country’s real effective exhange rate index is calculated by weighting its real bilateral exchange rate indices with each of its trading partners by their shares in the country’s total trade flows in terms of exports and imports. A currency depreciates in effective real terms when this index rises and appreciates when it falls. b Preliminary figures. c Average for January-October. d Simple average. e Average for January-June. f Average for January-August. 180 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table A-22 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT (Average annual rates) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 a Latin America and the Caribbean b 9.9 9.3 10.3 11.0 10.4 10.2 11.0 10.9 10.3 9.3 Argentina c Urban areas 17.2 14.9 12.9 14.3 15.1 17.4 19.7 17.3 13.6 11.6 d Barbados e Nationwide total 15.6 14.5 12.3 10.4 9.2 9.9 10.3 11.0 9.8 9.4 f Belice Nationwide total 13.8 12.7 14.3 12.8 11.1 9.1 10.0 12.9 11.6 11.0 g Bolivia Urban total h 3.8 4.4 6.1 7.2 7.5 8.5 8.7 9.2 8.5 ... Brazil i Six metropolitan areas 5.4 5.7 7.6 7.6 7.1 6.2 11.7 12.3 11.5 9.9 j Chile Nationwide total 6.4 6.1 6.4 9.8 9.2 9.1 9.0 8.5 8.8 8.1 j Colombia e 13 metropolitan areas k 11.2 12.4 15.3 19.4 17.2 18.2 17.6 16.7 15.4 13.9 j Costa Rica Urban total 6.6 5.9 5.4 6.2 5.3 5.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.9 Cuba Nationwide total 7.6 7.0 6.6 6.0 5.5 4.1 3.3 2.3 1.9 2.0 Dominican Republic e Nationwide total 16.5 15.9 14.3 13.8 13.9 15.4 16.1 17.0 18.4 18.4 g Ecuador e Cuenca, Guayaquil and Quito l 10.4 9.3 11.5 15.1 14.1 10.4 8.6 9.8 11.0 10.9 j El Salvador Urban total 7.5 7.5 7.6 6.9 6.5 7.0 6.2 6.2 6.5 7.2 d Guatemala Nationwide total 5.2 5.1 3.8 ...... … 3.1 3.4 3.1 ... Honduras Urban total 6.5 5.8 5.2 5.3 ... 5.9 6.1 7.6 8.0 6.8 m Jamaica e Nationwide total 16.0 16.5 15.5 15.7 15.5 15.0 14.2 11.4 11.7 11.5 n Mexico o Urban areas ... 5.4 4.7 3.7 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 4.8 j Nicaragua Urban total p 16.0 14.3 13.2 10.7 8.3 11.3 11.6 10.2 9.3 ... Panama e Urban total q 16.4 15.4 15.5 13.6 15.2 17.0 16.5 15.9 14.1 12.0 Paraguay Urban total 8.2 7.1 6.6 9.4 10.0 10.8 14.7 11.2 10.0 ... Peru Metropolitan Lima 8.0 9.2 8.5 9.2 8.5 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.6 j Trinidad and Tobago e Nationwide total 16.2 15.0 14.2 13.2 12.2 10.8 10.4 10.5 8.6 8.2 r Uruguay Urban total 11.9 11.5 10.1 11.3 13.6 15.3 17.0 16.9 13.1 12.1 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) Nationwide total 11.8 11.4 11.3 15.0 13.9 13.3 15.8 18.0 15.3 12.4 j Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. b The data for Argentina, Brazil and Mexico have been adjusted to allow for changes in methodology in 2003, 2002 and 2005, respectively. c New measurements have been used from 2003 on; these data are not comparable with the preceding series. d Estimate based on data for January to September. e Includes hidden unemployment. f Data correspond to the first semester. g Figure for April. h Up to 1999, the figures refer to departmental capitals. i New measurements have been used from 2002 on; these data are not comparable with the preceding series. j Estimate based on data for January to October. k Up to 1999, the figures refer to seven metropolitan areas. l Up to 1998, the figures refer to the urban total. m Figure for May. n Data correspond to the average for January-April. o Data based on a new methodology and not comparable with previously published data. p Up to 1999, the figures refer to nationwide totals. q Up to 1999, the figures refer to the metropolitan region. r Estimate based on data for January to June. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2005 181 Table A-23 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: CONSUMER PRICES (Percentage variations, December-December) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 a Latin America and the Caribbean b 18.6 10.7 10.0 9.7 9.0 6.1 12.2 8.5 7.4 6.3 Argentina 0.1 0.3 0.7 -1.8 -0.7 -1.5 41.0 3.7 6.1 12.0 Bahamas 1.1 0.8 1.9 1.4 1.0 2.9 1.9 2.3 1.0 2.4 c Barbados 1.8 3.6 1.7 2.9 3.8 -0.3 0.9 0.3 4.3 5.5 d Bolivia 7.9 6.7 4.4 3.1 3.4 0.9 2.4 3.9 4.6 5.0 Brazil 9.6 5.2 1.7 8.9 6.0 7.7 12.5 9.3 7.6 6.2 Chile 6.6 6.0 4.7 2.3 4.5 2.6 2.8 1.1 2.4 3.6 Colombia 21.6 17.7 16.7 9.2 8.8 7.6 7.0 6.5 5.5 5.1 Costa Rica 13.9 11.2 12.4 10.1 10.2 11.0 9.7 9.9 13.1 14.2 Cuba 0.0 1.9 2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -0.5 7.0 -1.0 2.9 4.2 Dominica 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.0 1.1 1.1 0.5 2.8 0.8 2.4 c Dominican Republic 4.0 8.4 7.8 5.1 9.0 4.4 10.5 42.7 28.7 4.8 Ecuador 25.7 30.6 43.4 60.7 91.0 22.4 9.3 6.1 1.9 3.8 El Salvador 7.4 1.9 4.2 -1.0 4.3 1.4 2.8 2.5 5.4 4.6 Grenada 3.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 3.4 -0.7 2.3 ...... Guatemala 10.9 7.1 7.5 4.9 5.1 8.9 6.3 5.9 9.2 9.2 Guyana 4.5 4.2 4.7 8.7 5.8 1.5 6.0 5.0 5.5 7.4 c Haiti 14.5 15.7 7.4 9.7 19.0 8.1 14.8 40.4 20.2 15.2 e Honduras 25.3 12.8 15.7 10.9 10.1 8.8 8.1 6.8 9.2 7.7 Jamaica 15.8 9.2 7.9 6.8 6.1 8.7 7.3 14.1 13.7 15.9 e Mexico 27.7 15.7 18.6 12.3 9.0 4.4 5.7 4.0 5.2 2.9 Nicaragua 12.1 7.3 18.5 7.2 9.9 4.7 4.0 6.6 8.9 10.5 e Panama 2.3 -0.5 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.0 1.9 1.5 1.5 4.0 e Paraguay 8.2 6.2 14.6 5.4 8.6 8.4 14.6 9.3 2.8 12.3 Peru 11.8 6.5 6.0 3.7 3.7 -0.1 1.5 2.5 3.5 1.1 Saint Kitts and Nevis 3.1 11.3 0.9 3.2 ...... Saint Lucia -2.3 1.9 3.6 6.1 0.4 0.0 1.4 ...... Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 3.6 0.8 3.3 -1.8 1.4 -0.2 0.4 2.7 1.7 3.1 c Suriname 1.2 17.4 22.9 112.7 76.1 4.9 28.4 13.1 9.1 16.6 e Trinidad and Tobago 4.3 3.5 5.6 3.4 5.6 3.2 4.3 3.0 5.6 6.8 e Uruguay 24.3 15.2 8.6 4.2 5.1 3.6 25.9 10.2 7.6 4.8 Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 103.2 37.6 29.9 20.0 13.4 12.3 31.2 27.1 19.2 15.3 Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Twelve-month variation up to November 2005. b Does not include the Bahamas, Barbados, Grenada, Guyana, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Saint Lucia. The figure for 2005 also excludes Cuba. c Twelve-month variation up to September 2005. d Twelve-month variation up to June 2005. e Twelve-month variation up to October 2005. Table A-24 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: AVERAGE REAL WAGES (Average annual indices: 2000 = 100) 1990 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 a Argentina b 93.3 94.7 95.0 95.0 97.8 100.0 99.2 85.4 83.8 92.2 96.8 c Brazil d 99.7 103.0 105.7 105.8 101.1 100.0 95.1 93.1 84.9 85.5 84.9 c Chile e 69.3 91.6 93.8 96.3 98.6 100.0 101.7 103.7 104.6 106.5 108.5 f Colombia b 76.3 88.4 92.1 92.2 96.3 100.0 99.7 102.6 102.5 103.5 104.2 c Costa Rica g 81.5 88.9 89.7 94.7 99.2 100.0 101.0 105.1 105.5 102.8 101.6 c Mexico b 88.9 90.9 90.4 92.9 94.3 100.0 106.7 108.7 110.1 110.4 110.1 c Nicaragua g 75.8 89.2 92.5 96.2 100.0 100.0 101.0 104.5 106.5 104.2 102.6 c Paraguay 87.8 103.2 102.7 100.8 98.7 100.0 101.4 94.9 93.0 90.5 ... Peru h 93.7 104.2 103.5 101.4 99.3 100.0 99.1 103.7 105.3 106.5 106.5 i Uruguay 89.1 97.8 98.0 99.7 101.3 100.0 99.7 89.0 77.9 77.9 81.6 f Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) j 140.5 78.0 98.0 103.3 98.5 100.0 102.4 92.1 76.7 73.7 73.9 c Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Preliminary figures. b Manufacturing. c Estimate based on data for January-September. d Workers covered by social and labour legislation. e General hourly wage index. f Estimate based on data for January-October. g Average wages declared by workers covered by social security. h Private-sector manual workers in the Lima metropolitan area. The figure for 2005 refers to labour income in the Lima Metropolitan area. i Average from November 2004 to October 2005 with respect to the preceding 12 months. j Private sector. 182 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Table A-25 LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: PUBLIC-SECTOR DEFICIT (-) OR SURPLUS a (Percentages of GDP) Coverage b 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 c 2005 d Latin America and the Caribbean e CG -1.4 -1.3 -2.3 -3.1 -2.7 -3.3 -3.3 -3.0 -1.8 -1.7 Argentina NA -2.8 -1.4 -1.8 -3.0 -2.1 -3.8 -0.3 0.3 2.0 1.3 NFPS -3.2 -1.5 -2.4 -4.5 -3.3 -7.0 -0.8 1.6 3.5 … Bolivia CG -1.7 -3.6 -4.0 -3.4 -3.9 -7.4 -9.0 -7.9 -5.7 -3.5 NFPS -1.9 -3.3 -4.7 -3.5 -3.7 -6.9 -9.0 -8.1 -5.5 … Brazil CG f g -2.6 -2.6 -5.4 -6.8 -3.1 -3.7 -6.4 -2.5 -1.3 -1.7 CPS g … … -7.5 -5.8 -3.6 -3.6 -4.6 -5.1 -2.7 … Chile CG 2.2 2.1 0.4 -2.1 -0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -0.4 2.2 3.4 NFPS 2.3 1.4 -1.4 -3.3 -1.0 -0.4 -2.5 -1.6 2.4 … Colombia CG h -3.4 -3.7 -4.8 -6.1 -5.4 -5.3 -4.9 -4.7 -4.3 -5.5 NFPS -1.7 -2.8 -3.7 -4.1 -4.0 -4.1 -3.5 -2.6 -0.9 … Costa Rica CG -4.0 -2.9 -2.5 -2.2 -3.0 -2.9 -4.3 -2.9 -2.8 -2.8 NFPS -2.5 -0.8 -0.6 -1.7 -1.6 -1.6 -3.9 -2.4 -2.0 … Dominican Republic CG -1.6 -1.6 -1.0 -1.8 -2.1 -2.4 -2.7 -5.2 -3.0 -0.8 Ecuador CG i -1.7 -1.2 -4.1 -2.9 0.1 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 -1.4 NFPS i -2.8 -2.1 -5.2 -4.9 1.4 0.0 0.8 1.7 2.0 … El Salvador CG -1.8 -1.1 -2.0 -2.1 -2.3 -3.6 -3.1 -2.7 -1.1 -0.6 NFPS -2.5 -1.8 -2.6 -2.8 -3.0 -3.7 -3.3 -2.1 -0.6 … Guatemala CG 0.0 -0.8 -2.2 -2.8 -1.8 -1.9 -1.0 -2.3 -1.0 -1.8 Haiti CG j k -0.7 -0.6 -1.2 -2.2 -2.3 -2.2 -3.0 -3.5 -2.4 -1.5 Honduras CG -3.5 -2.8 -1.3 -3.7 -5.0 -6.0 -5.3 -5.6 -3.1 -3.0 NFPS -2.5 -1.0 2.9 0.7 -2.3 -2.3 -1.8 -4.2 -1.7 … Mexico CG -0.2 -1.1 -1.4 -1.6 -1.3 -0.7 -1.8 -1.1 -1.0 … PS 0.0 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -0.7 -1.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 Nicaragua CG -0.9 -0.8 -1.1 -3.3 -4.7 -7.5 -2.5 -2.8 -2.2 -2.0 NFPS -2.9 -1.0 0.4 -2.2 -4.5 -6.3 -1.9 -2.2 -1.5 … Panama CG 0.2 -0.3 -4.2 -2.0 -1.1 -1.7 -1.9 -3.8 -5.6 -3.3 NFPS 1.6 0.1 -2.3 -0.9 0.7 -0.4 -2.0 -4.8 -5.0 -3.6 Paraguay CA -1.2 -1.6 -1.1 -3.8 -4.6 -1.2 -3.2 -0.4 1.6 -0.5 NFPS 1.0 -1.0 0.4 -3.1 -4.0 -0.1 -1.9 1.1 2.4 … Peru CG -1.4 -0.8 -1.1 -3.2 -2.8 -2.8 -2.1 -1.8 -1.3 -1.2 NFPS -1.1 0.1 -1.0 -3.2 -3.4 -2.4 -2.3 -1.7 -1.1 … Uruguay CG -1.8 -1.6 -1.2 -3.9 -3.5 -4.5 -4.9 -4.6 -2.5 -2.5 NFPS j -0.9 -0.9 -0.5 -3.8 -3.7 -4.0 -3.8 -2.8 -0.8 … Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) CG 0.6 2.0 -4.0 -1.7 -1.7 -4.4 -4.0 -4.4 -2.0 -1.5 NPS 7.0 3.7 -4.5 0.7 4.4 -4.6 -1.0 0.2 … … Source: Economic Comission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of official figures. a Total income minus total expenditure, expressed in local currency. b Abbreviations used: NA = National administration; CA = Central administration; CG = Central government; GG = General government; CNG = Central national government; NFPS = Non-financial public sector; PS = Public sector; CPS = Consolidated public sector; NPS = Narrowly defined public sector. c Preliminary figures. d Official targets. e Simple average. f Includes the federal government and the central bank. g Nominal balance. h These results do not include adjustments for accruals, floating debt or the cost of financial restructuring. i In 2003, does not include US$ 130 million that the Office of the Under-Secretary of the National Treasury de-earmarked from central government accounts. j Overall balance calculated “below the line” (financing). k From 2002 onwards, the source of information used is International Monetary Fund Country Report No. 05/205. Publicaciones de la CEPAL / ECLAC publications Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe / Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Casilla 179-D, Santiago de Chile. E-mail: [email protected] Véalas en: www.cepal.org/publicaciones Publications may be accessed at: www.eclac.org Revista de la CEPAL / CEPAL Review La Revista se inició en 1976 como parte del Programa de Publicaciones de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe, con el propósito de contribuir al examen de los problemas del desarrollo socioeconómico de la región. Las opiniones expresadas en los artículos firmados, incluidas las colaboraciones de los funcionarios de la Secretaría, son las de los autores y, por lo tanto, no reflejan necesariamente los puntos de vista de la Organización. La Revista de la CEPAL se publica en español e inglés tres veces por año. Los precios de suscripción anual vigentes para 2005 son de US$ 30 para la versión en español y de US$ 35 para la versión en inglés. El precio por ejemplar suelto es de US$ 15 para ambas versiones. Los precios de suscripción por dos años (2005-2006) son de US$ 50 para la versión español y de US$ 60 para la versión inglés. CEPAL Review first appeared in 1976 as part of the Publications Programme of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, its aim being to make a contribution to the study of the economic and social development problems of the region. The views expressed in signed articles, including those by Secretariat staff members, are those of the authors and therefore do not necessarily reflect the point of view of the Organization. CEPAL Review is published in Spanish and English versions three times a year. Annual subscription costs for 2005 are US$ 30 for the Spanish version and US$ 35 for the English version. The price of single issues is US$ 15 in both cases. The cost of a two-year subscription (2005-2006) is US$ 50 for Spanish-language version and US$ 60 for English. Informes periódicos institucionales / Annual reports Todos disponibles para años anteriores / Issues for previous years also available • Estudio económico de América Latina y el Caribe 2004-2005, 378 p. Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2004-2005, 362 p. • Panorama de la inserción internacional de América Latina y el Caribe, 2004. Tendencias 2005, 212 p. Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy, 2004. 2005 trends, 203 p. • Panorama social de América Latina, 2004, 391 p. Social Panorama of Latin America, 2004, 396 p. • Balance preliminar de las economías de América Latina y el Caribe, 2004, 169 p. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2004, 168 p. • La inversión extranjera en América Latina y el Caribe, 2004, 168 p. Foreign investment of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2004, 166 p. • Anuario estadístico de América Latina y el Caribe / Statistical Yearbook for Latin America and the Caribbean (bilingüe/bilingual), 2004, 500 p. Libros de la CEPAL 86 Aprender de la experiencia. El capital social en la superación de la pobreza, Irma Arriagada (ed.), 2005, 250 p. 84 Globalización y desarrollo: desafíos de Puerto Rico frente al siglo XXI, Jorge Mario Martínez, Jorge Máttar y Pedro Rivera (coords.), 2005, 342 p. 83 El medio ambiente y la maquila en México: un problema ineludible, Jorge Carrillo y Claudia Schatan (comps.), 2005, 304 p. 82 Fomentar la coordinación de las políticas económicas en América Latina. El método REDIMA para salir del dilema del prisionero, Christian Ghymers, 2005, 190 p. 82 Fostering economic policy coordination in Latin America. The REDIMA approach to escaping the prisoner’s dilemma, Christian Ghymers, 2005, 170 p. 81 Mondialisation et développement. Un regard de l’Amérique latine et des Caraïbes, José Antonio Ocampo et Juan Martin (éds.), 2005, 236 p. 80 Gobernabilidad e integración financiera: ámbito global y regional, 2004, José Antonio Ocampo, Andras Uthoff (comps.), 278 p. 79 Etnicidad y ciudadanía en América Latina. La acción colectiva de los pueblos indígenas, 2004, Álvaro Bello, 222 p. 78 Los transgénicos en América Latina y el Caribe: un debate abierto, 2004, 416 p. 77 Una década de desarrollo social en América Latina 1990-1999, 2004, 300 p. 77 A decade of social development in Latin America 1990-1999, 2004, 308 p. 77 Une décennie de développement social en Amérique latine 1990-1999, 2004, 300 p. 76 A decade of light and shadow. Latin America and the Caribbean in the 1990s, 2003, 366 p. 76 Une décennie d’ombres et de lumières. L’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes dans les années 90, 2003, 401 p. 75 Gestión urbana para el desarrollo sostenible en América Latina y el Caribe, Ricardo Jordán y Daniela Simioni (comps.), 2003, 264 p. 74 Mercados de tierras agrícolas en América Latina y el Caribe: una realidad incompleta, Pedro Tejo (comp.), 2003, 416 p. 73 Contaminación atmosférica y conciencia ciudadana, 2003. Daniela Simioni (comp.), 260 p. 72 Los caminos hacia una sociedad de la información en América Latina y el Caribe, 2003, 139 p. 72 Road maps towards an information society in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2003, 130 p. 71 Capital social y reducción de la pobreza en América Latina y el Caribe. En busca de un nuevo paradigma, 2003, Raúl Atria y Marcelo Siles (comps.), CEPAL/Michigan State University, 590 p. 70 Hacia el objetivo del milenio de reducir la pobreza en América Latina y el Caribe, 2002, 80 p. 70 Meeting the millennium poverty reduction targets in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2002, ECLAC/IPEA/UNDP, 70 p. 70 L’objectif du millénaire de réduire la pauvreté en Amérique Latine et les Caraïbes, 2002, 85 p. 70 Rumo ao objetivo do milenio de reduzir a pobreza na América Latina e o Caribe, 2002, 81 p. 69 El capital social campesino en la gestión del desarrollo rural. Díadas, equipos, puentes y escaleras, 2002, John Durston, 156 p. 68 La sostenibilidad del desarrollo en América Latina y el Caribe: desafíos y oportunidades, 2002, 251 p. 68 The sustainability of development in Latin America and the Caribbean: challenges and opportunities, 2002, 248 p. 67 Growth with stability, financing for development in the new international context, 2002, 248 p. Copublicaciones recientes / Recent co-publications Crecimiento esquivo y volatilidad financiera, Ricardo Ffrench-Davis (ed.), Mayol Ediciones, Colombia, 2005. Seeking growth under financial volatility, Ricardo Ffrench-Davis (ed.), Palgrave Macmillan, United Kingdom, 2005. Macroeconomía, comercio y finanzas para reformar las reformas en América Latina, Ricardo Ffrench-Davis (ed.), CEPAL/Mayol Ediciones, Colombia, 2005. Beyond Reforms. Structural Dynamics and Macroeconomic Theory. José Antonio Ocampo (ed.), ECLAC/Inter-American Development Bank/The World Bank/Stanford University Press, USA, 2003. Más allá de las reformas. Dinámica estructural y vulnerabilidad macroeconómica, José Antonio Ocampo (ed.), CEPAL/Alfaomega, Colombia, 2005. Gestión social. Cómo lograr eficiencia e impacto en las políticas sociales, Ernesto Cohen y Rolando Franco, CEPAL/Siglo XXI, Crecimiento esquivo y volatilidad financiera, Ricardo Ffrench-Davis (ed.), CEPAL/Mayol Ediciones, México, 2005. Pequeñas y medianas empresas y eficiencia colectiva. Estudios de caso en América Latina, Marco Dini y Giovanni Stumpo (coords.), CEPAL/Siglo XXI, México, 2005. En búsqueda de efectividad, eficiencia y equidad: las políticas del mercado de trabajo y los instrumentos de su evaluación, Jürgen Weller (comp.), CEPAL/LOM, Chile, 2004. América Latina en la era global, José Antonio Ocampo y Juan Martin (coords.), CEPAL/Alfaomega. El desarrollo económico en los albores del siglo XXI, José Antonio Ocampo (ed.), CEPAL/Alfaomega, Colombia, 2004. Los recursos del desarrollo. Lecciones de seis aglomeraciones agroindustriales en América Latina, Carlos Guaipatín (comp.), CEPAL/Alfaomega, Colombia, 2004. Medir la economía de los países según el sistema de cuentas nacionales, Michel Séruzier, CEPAL/Alfaomega, 2003, Colombia, 2003. Globalization and Development. A Latin American and Caribbean Perspective, José Antonio Ocampo and Juan Martin (eds.), ECLAC/Inter-American Development Bank/The World Bank/Stanford University Press, USA, 2003. Globalización y desarrollo. Una reflexión desde América Latina y el Caribe, José Antonio Ocampo y Juan Martin (eds.), CEPAL/Alfaomega, Colombia, 2003. Autonomía o ciudadanía incompleta. El Pueblo Mapuche en Chile y Argentina, Isabel Hernández, CEPAL/Pehuén, Chile, 2003. El desarrollo de complejos forestales en América Latina, Néstor Bercovich y Jorge Katz (eds.), CEPAL/Alfaomega, Colombia, 2003. Territorio y competitividad en la agroindustria en México. Condiciones y propuestas de política para los clusters del limón mexicano en Colima y la piña en Veracruz, Enrique Dussel Peters, CEPAL/Plaza y Valdés, México, 2002. Capital social rural. Experiencias de México y Centroamérica, Margarita Flores y Fernando Rello, CEPAL/Plaza y Valdés, México,2002. Eqüidade, desenvolvimento e cidadania, José Antonio Ocampo, CEPAL/Editor Campus, Brasil, 2002. Crescimento, emprego e eqüidade; O Impacto das Reformas Econômicas na América Latina e Caribe, Barbara Stallings e Wilson Peres, CEPAL/Editor Campus, Brasil, 2002. Crescer com Estabilidade, O financiamento do desenvolvimento no novo contexto internacional, José Antonio Ocampo, CEPAL/Editor Campus, Brasil, 2002. Pequeñas y medianas empresas industriales en América Latina y el Caribe, Wilson Peres y Giovanni Stumpo (coords.), CEPAL/Siglo XXI, México, 2002. Aglomeraciones mineras y desarrollo local en América Latina, Rudolf M. Buitelaar (comp.), CEPAL/Alfaomega, Colombia, 2002. Cuadernos de la CEPAL 90 Los sistemas de pensiones en América Latina: un análisis de género, 2004, Flavia Marco (coord.), 270 p. 89 Energía y desarrollo sustentable en América Latina y el Caribe. Guía para la formulación de políticas energéticas, 2003, 240 p. 88 La ciudad inclusiva, Marcello Balbo, Ricardo Jordán y Daniela Simioni (comps.), CEPAL/Cooperazione Italiana, 2003, 322 p. 87 Traffic congestion. The problem and how to deal with it, 2004 Alberto Bull (comp.), 198 p. 87 Congestión de tránsito. El problema y cómo enfrentarlo, 2003, Alberto Bull (comp.), 114 p. Cuadernos Estadísticos de la CEPAL 30 Clasificaciones estadísticas internacionales incorporadas en el banco de datos del comercio exterior de América Latina y el Caribe de la CEPAL, 2004, 308 p. 29 América Latina y el Caribe: series estadísticas sobre comercio de servicios 1980-2001, 2003, 150 p. Boletín demográfico / Demographic Bulletin (bilingüe/bilingual) Edición bilingüe (español e inglés) que proporciona información estadística actualizada, referente a estimaciones y proyecciones de población de los países de América Latina y el Caribe. Incluye también indicadores demográficos de interés, tales como tasas de natalidad, mortalidad, esperanza de vida al nacer, distribución de la población, etc. Publicado desde 1968, el Boletín aparece dos veces al año, en los meses de enero y julio. Suscripción anual: US$ 20.00. Valor por cada ejemplar: US$ 15.00. Bilingual publication (Spanish and English) proving up-to-date estimates and projections of the populations of the Latin American and Caribbean countries. Also includes various demographic indicators of interest such as fertility and mortality rates, life expectancy, measures of population distribution, etc. Published since 1968, the Bulletin appears twice a year in January and July. Annual subscription: US$ 20.00. Per issue: US$ 15.00. Notas de población Revista especializada que publica artículos e informes acerca de las investigaciones más recientes sobre la dinámica demográfica en la región, en español, con resúmenes en español e inglés. También incluye información sobre actividades científicas y profesionales en el campo de población. La revista se publica desde 1973 y aparece dos veces al año, en junio y diciembre. Suscripción anual: US$ 20.00. Valor por cada ejemplar: US$ 12.00. Specialized journal which publishes articles and reports on recent studies of demographic dynamics in the region, in Spanish with abstracts in Spanish and English. Also includes information on scientific and professional activities in the field of population. Published since 1973, the journal appears twice a year in June and December. Annual subscription: US$ 20.00. Per issue: US$ 12.00. Series de la CEPAL Comercio internacional Desarrollo productivo Estudios estadísticos y prospectivos Estudios y perspectivas: — Bogotá — Brasilia — Buenos Aires — México — Montevideo Financiamiento del desarrollo Información y desarrollo Informes y estudios especiales Macroeconomía del desarrollo Manuales Medio ambiente y desarrollo Población y desarrollo Políticas sociales Recursos naturales e infraestructura Seminarios y conferencias Vea el listado completo en: www.cepal.org/publicaciones A complete listing is available at: www.eclac.cl/publicaciones Las publicaciones de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) y las del Instituto Latinoamericano y del Caribe de Planificación Económica y Social (ILPES) se pueden adquirir a los distribuidores locales o directamente a través de: Publicaciones de las Naciones Unidas Publicaciones de las Naciones Unidas Sección de Ventas – DC-2-0853 Sección de Ventas, Fax (22)917-0027 Fax (212)963-3489 Palais des Nations E-mail: [email protected] 1211 Ginebra 10 Nueva York, NY, 10017 Suiza Estados Unidos de América Unidad de Distribución CEPAL – Casilla 179-D Fax (562)208-1946 E-mail: [email protected] Santiago de Chile Publications of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and those of the Latin American and the Caribbean Institute for Economic and Social Planning (ILPES) can be ordered from your local distributor or directly through: United Nations Publications United Nations Publications Sales Sections, DC-2-0853 Sales Sections, Fax (22)917-0027 Fax (212)963-3489 Palais des Nations E-mail: [email protected] 1211 Geneve 10 New York, NY, 10017 Switzerland USA Distribution Unit ECLAC – Casilla 179-D Fax (562)208-1946 E-mail: [email protected] Santiago, Chile