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To Appear in Synthese Probability and Proximity in Surprise
Page 1 of 19 To appear in Synthese Probability and Proximity in Surprise Tomoji Shogenji1 Abstract This paper proposes an analysis of surprise formulated in terms of proximity to the truth, to replace the probabilistic account of surprise. It is common to link surprise to the low (prior) probability of the outcome. The idea seems sensible because an outcome with a low probability is unexpected, and an unexpected outcome often surprises us. However, the link between surprise and low probability is known to break down in some cases. There have been some attempts to modify the probabilistic account to deal with these cases, but they are still faced with problems. The new analysis of surprise I propose turns to accuracy (proximity to the truth) and identifies an unexpected degree of inaccuracy as reason for surprise. The shift from probability to proximity allows us to solve puzzles that strain the probabilistic account of surprise. Keywords Qualitative hypothesis ∙ Quantitative hypothesis ∙ Probabilistic hypothesis ∙ Inaccuracy ∙ Scoring rules ∙ Expected inaccuracy 1. Introduction This paper proposes an analysis of surprise formulated in terms of proximity to the truth, to replace the probabilistic account of surprise. It is common to link surprise to the low (prior) probability of the outcome.2 The idea seems sensible because an outcome with a low probability is unexpected, and an unexpected outcome often surprises us. However, the link between surprise and low probability is known to break down in some cases. There have been some attempts to modify the probabilistic account to deal with these cases, but as we shall see, they are still faced with problems. -
Hegel-Jahrbuch 2010 Hegel- Jahrbuch 2010
Hegel-Jahrbuch 2010 Hegel- Jahrbuch 2010 Begründet von Wilhelm Raimund Beyer (f) Herausgegeben von Andreas Arndt Paul Cruysberghs Andrzej Przylebski in Verbindung mit Lu De Vos und Peter Jonkers Geist? Erster Teil Herausgegeben von Andreas Arndt Paul Cruysberghs Andrzej Przylebski in Verbindung mit Lu De Vos und Peter Jonkers Akademie Verlag Redaktionelle Mitarbeit: Veit Friemert Bibliografische Information der Deutschen Nationalbibliothek Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. ISBN 978-3-05-004638-9 © Akademie Verlag GmbH, Berlin 2010 Das eingesetzte Papier ist alterungsbeständig nach DIN/ISO 9706. Alle Rechte, insbesondere die der Übersetzung in andere Sprachen, vorbehalten. Kein Teil dieses Buches darf ohne schriftliche Genehmigung des Verlages in irgendeiner Form - durch Photokopie, Mikroverfilmung oder irgendein anderes Verfahren - reproduziert oder in eine von Maschinen, insbesondere von Datenver- arbeitungsmaschinen, verwendbare Sprache übertragen oder übersetzt werden. Lektorat: Mischka Dammaschke Satz: Veit Friemert, Berlin Einbandgestaltung: nach einem Entwurf von Günter Schorcht, Schildow Druck: MB Medienhaus Berlin Printed in the Federal Republic of Germany VORWORT Das vorliegende Hegel-Jahrbuch umfasst den ersten Teil der auf dem XXVII. Internationalen He- gel-Kongress der Internationalen Hegel-Gesellschaft e.V. 2008 in Leuven zum Thema »Geist?« gehaltenen Referate. Den Dank an alle Förderer und Helfer, die den Kongress ermöglicht und zu dessen Gelingen beigetragen haben, hat Paul Cruysberghs - der zusammen mit Lu de Vos und Peter Jonkers das örtliche Organisationskomitee bildete - in seiner im folgenden abgedruckten Eröff- nungsrede abgestattet; ihm schließt sich der übrige Vorstand mit einem besonderen Dank an Paul Cruysberghs an. -
2017-18 Lycoming College Men's Basketball Record Book
2000 Freedom Conference Player of the Year Rasheed Campbell 2017-18 Lycoming College men’s Basketball Record Book Lycoming 200 ........................................................................................................2-5 Individual Single-Season Records .............................................................36-39 MAC 100 Century Team ..........................................................................................6 Team Single-Season Records ............................................................................40 Conference Champions......................................................................................7-8 Single-Game Records ..........................................................................................41 NCAA Tournament Teams............................................................................... 9-10 Game-by-Game Results ................................................................................42-63 Awards & Honors .............................................................................................11-14 All-Time Postseason Opponents ................................................................64-65 All-Time Participants ......................................................................................15-18 In the National Rankings ....................................................................................66 Year-by-Year Records & Statistics ...............................................................19-20 100-Point Games ...................................................................................................67 -
The Impact of Culture on Mindreading
Edinburgh Research Explorer The impact of culture on mindreading Citation for published version: Lavelle, JS 2019, 'The impact of culture on mindreading', Synthese, vol. N/A, pp. 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-019-02466-5 Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1007/s11229-019-02466-5 Link: Link to publication record in Edinburgh Research Explorer Document Version: Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Published In: Synthese General rights Copyright for the publications made accessible via the Edinburgh Research Explorer is retained by the author(s) and / or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing these publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Take down policy The University of Edinburgh has made every reasonable effort to ensure that Edinburgh Research Explorer content complies with UK legislation. If you believe that the public display of this file breaches copyright please contact [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 25. Sep. 2021 Synthese https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-019-02466-5 FOLK PSYCHOLOGY: PLURALISTIC APPROACHES The impact of culture on mindreading Jane Suilin Lavelle1 Received: 8 July 2019 / Accepted: 4 November 2019 © The Author(s) 2019 Abstract The role of culture in shaping folk psychology and mindreading has been neglected in the philosophical literature. This paper shows that there are significant cultural dif- ferences in how psychological states are understood and used by (1) drawing on Spaulding’s recent distinction between the ‘goals’ and ‘methods’ of mindreading (2018) to argue that the relations between these methods vary across cultures; and (2) arguing that differences in folk psychology cannot be dismissed as irrelevant to the cognitive architecture that facilitates our understanding of psychological states. -
2016-2017 Lycoming College Catalog
THE MISSION The mission of Lycoming College is to provide a distinguished baccalaureate education in the liberal arts and sciences within a coeducational, supportive, residential setting. GUIDING PRINCIPLES Lycoming College is committed to the principle that a liberal arts education provides an excellent foundation for an informed and productive life. Consequently, the Baccalaureate degree (Bachelor of Arts or Bachelor of Science) is conferred upon the student who has completed an educational program incorporating the two principles of a liberal arts education known as distribution and concentration. The objective of the distribution principle is to ensure that the student achieves intellectual breadth through the study of the arts, humanities, mathematics, natural and social sciences, and modern or ancient languages and their literatures. The objective of the concentration principle is to provide depth of learning through completion of a program of study in a given discipline or subject area known as the major. The effect of both principles is to impart knowledge, inspire inquiry, and encourage creative thought. Lycoming College promotes individual growth and community development through a combination of academic and co-curricular programs in a supportive residential environment that seeks to foster self-awareness, model social responsibility, and provide opportunities to develop leadership skills. Students are encouraged to explore new concepts and perspectives, to cultivate an aesthetic sensibility, and to develop communication and -
Pluralistic Perspectives on Logic: an Introduction
Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Philosophy Faculty Publications Philosophy & Religious Studies 1-2020 Pluralistic Perspectives on Logic: An Introduction Colin R. Caret Teresa Kouri Kissel Old Dominion University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/philosophy_fac_pubs Part of the Logic and Foundations of Mathematics Commons, and the Philosophy of Science Commons Original Publication Citation Caret, C. R., & Kissel, T. K. Pluralistic perspectives on logic: An introduction. Synthese, 1-12. doi:10.1007/ s11229-019-02525-x This Editorial is brought to you for free and open access by the Philosophy & Religious Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Philosophy Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Synthese https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-019-02525-x SI: PLURALISTIC PERSPECTIVES ON LOGIC Pluralistic perspectives on logic: an introduction Colin R. Caret1 · Teresa Kouri Kissel2 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020 1 Logic and logics Logical pluralism is the view that there are distinct, but equally good logics. Recent years have witnessed a sharp upswing of interest in this view, resulting in an impres- sive literature. We only expect this trend to continue in the future. More than one commentator has, however, expressed exasperation at the view: what can it mean to be a pluralist about logic of all things? [see, e.g., Eklund (2017); Goddu (2002); Keefe (2014)]. In this introduction, we aim to set out the basic pluralist position, identify some issues over which pluralists disagree amongst themselves, and highlight the topics at the heart of the ongoing debate. -
The 117 Members of the Class of 2020 Gained Acceptances at 239 Different Colleges and Universities in the United States and Abroad
The 117 members of the Class of 2020 gained acceptances at 239 different colleges and universities in the United States and abroad. Their schools of intended matriculation are represented below in bold print, with multiple matriculants indicated in parentheses. Abilene Christian University Denison University University of Kentucky University of Akron University of Denver Kenyon College University of Alabama DePaul University Lafayette College (2) Allegheny College University of Detroit Mercy Lake Forest College American University (2) Dickinson College Leeds Beckett University (UK) Arizona State University Drexel University Lehigh University University of Arizona Duke University Lewis & Clark College ASA College Duquesne University University of Liverpool (UK) Assumption College Earlham College Loyola University Chicago Auburn University Eastern Michigan University Loyola University Maryland Austin College Elon University Lycoming College Ave Maria University Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University University of Lynchburg Babson College Emerson College Macalester College Baldwin Wallace University Emory University University of Maine Baylor University University of Evansville Manchester Metropolitan U (UK) Belmont University Fairfield University University of Mary Washington Bentley University Florida Atlantic University University of Maryland Boston College Florida International University (2) Marymount University Boston University (3) Florida Southern College University of Massachusetts-Amherst Bowdoin College (2) Florida State University -
Chimpanzee Mind Reading: Don't Stop Believing
Received: 18 April 2016 Revised: 22 September 2016 Accepted: 24 October 2016 DOI 10.1111/phc3.12394 ARTICLE Chimpanzee mind reading: Don't stop believing Kristin Andrews York University, Canada Abstract Correspondence “ ” Kristin Andrews, Department of Philosophy, Since the question Do chimpanzees have a theory of mind? was York University, Toronto, Canada. raised in 1978, scientists have attempted to answer it, and Email: [email protected] philosophers have attempted to clarify what the question means and whether it has been, or could be, answered. Mindreading (a term used mostly by philosophers) or theory of mind (a term preferred by scientists) refers to the ability to attribute mental states to other individuals. Some versions of the question focus on whether chimpanzees engage in belief reasoning or can think about false belief, and chimpanzees have been given nonverbal versions of the false belief moved‐object task (also known as the Sally–Anne task). Other versions of the question focus on whether chimpanzees understand what others can see, and chimpanzees can pass those tests. From this data, some claim that chimpanzees know something about perceptions, but nothing about belief. Others claim that chimpanzees do not understand belief or perceptions, because the data fails to overcome the “logical problem,” and permits an alternative, non‐mentalistic interpretation. I will argue that neither view is warranted. Belief reasoning in chimpanzees has focused on examining false belief in a moved object scenario, but has largely ignored other functions of belief. The first part of the paper is an argument for how to best understand belief reasoning and offers suggestion for future investigation. -
Conference Championship Tournament History
Conference Championship Tournament History Total Appearances: 22 Early Rounds Through Semifinal: 35-17 Championships: 10 Championship Games: 10-9 All-Time Record: 45-26 Runs For-Against: 254-168 Notes: All Conference Championships Tournament starting in 1993 were double elimination. During Championship Game 1 either Messiah or opponent was undefeated, but not both. During Championship Game 2 the conference champion is decided (i.e., losing team was delivered their second loss). Year Competition Location Opponent Result 1990 Semifinal unknown Wilkes University Messiah 6-5 Championship Game unknown University of Scranton Scranton 2-1 1991 Semifinal unknown University of Scranton Scranton 2-1 1993 Quarterfinal unknown Fairleigh-Dickinson University Messiah 11-0 Semifinal unknown Muhlenburg College Messiah 2-1 Championship Game 1 unknown Western Maryland University W. Md. 2-1 Championship Game 2 unknown Western Maryland University W. Md. 2-1 1994 Quarterfinal unknown Wilkes University Messiah 5-4 Semifinal unknown Lycoming College Messiah 2-1 Championship Game unknown Lycoming College Messiah 2-0 1996 Quarterfinal unknown King’s College Messiah 9-1 Semifinal unknown Lycoming College Messiah 3-1 Championship Game 1 unknown Lycoming College Lycoming 5-1 Championship Game 2 unknown Lycoming College Messiah 1-0 1997 Quarterfinal unknown Lycoming College Messiah 4-0 Semifinal unknown Moravian College Messiah 2-1 Championship Game unknown Moravian College Messiah 8-0 (5 inn.) 1998 Quarterfinal Denver, PA Lycoming College Messiah 5-2 Semifinal Denver, -
The Environmental Audit of Lycoming College
The Environmental Audit of Lycoming College Ninth Edition: April 2018 By Andrew Shelly ’18 and Mikayla Schappert ‘20 Eighth Edition: April 2017 By Andrew Shelly ‘18 Seventh Edition: April 2016 By Tiffany Faull ‘16 Sixth Edition: April 2015 By Amber Seibel ‘15 Fifth Edition: April 2014 By Jocelyn Owens ’15, Dacin Kemmerer ’14, Emily Vebrosky ’14, Samantha Hewitt ’14, Lynette Dooley ’15, and Miranda Giraldo ‘15 Fourth Edition: April 2012 By Zebidiah Buck ’12, Alyssa Tomaskovic ’13, Laura Walter ’13, Ashlynn Beacker ’14, Chelsea Brewer ’14, and Samantha Hewitt ‘14 Third Edition: April 2011 By Megan Schulze ’11, Brooke Gessner ’12, and Alyssa Tomaskovic ‘13 Second Edition: April 2010 By Megan Schulze ’11 and Nick Lansberry ‘11 First Edition: December 2009 By Tyler Hutson ’10, Dan Cassidy ’11, Bethany Herring ’11, Emily Hopko ’11, and Megan Runyon ’10. Supervisors: Dr. Mel Zimmerman and Dr. Bob Smith 2017 Environmental Audit Mikayla Schappert 20’, Andrew Shelly 18’ Introduction Developing more environmentally sustainable ways of living has become a global concern. Universities and colleges around the world are creating alternative, more sustainable methods to continue to meet their campus’s needs, as well as decrease their own environmental footprints. As a progressive step towards these aforementioned ideas, Lycoming College conducts an annual environmental audit. This audit incorporates data comparing utility costs, water consumption, natural gas consumption, electricity consumption, solid waste production, as well as information regarding any recycling and sustainability efforts. It also outlines a list of classes and clubs that incorporate environmental aspects into their curriculum and activities. Since students, faculty, and staff have been cataloguing data since 2009, this document also provides a comparative analysis of past forms of energy consumption among the various buildings on Lycoming College’s campus. -
Member Colleges & Universities
Bringing Colleges & Students Together SAGESholars® Member Colleges & Universities It Is Our Privilege To Partner With 427 Private Colleges & Universities April 2nd, 2021 Alabama Emmanuel College Huntington University Maryland Institute College of Art Faulkner University Morris Brown Indiana Institute of Technology Mount St. Mary’s University Stillman College Oglethorpe University Indiana Wesleyan University Stevenson University Arizona Point University Manchester University Washington Adventist University Benedictine University at Mesa Reinhardt University Marian University Massachusetts Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Savannah College of Art & Design Oakland City University Anna Maria College University - AZ Shorter University Saint Mary’s College Bentley University Grand Canyon University Toccoa Falls College Saint Mary-of-the-Woods College Clark University Prescott College Wesleyan College Taylor University Dean College Arkansas Young Harris College Trine University Eastern Nazarene College Harding University Hawaii University of Evansville Endicott College Lyon College Chaminade University of Honolulu University of Indianapolis Gordon College Ouachita Baptist University Idaho Valparaiso University Lasell University University of the Ozarks Northwest Nazarene University Wabash College Nichols College California Illinois Iowa Northeast Maritime Institute Alliant International University Benedictine University Briar Cliff University Springfield College Azusa Pacific University Blackburn College Buena Vista University Suffolk University California -
The Inauguration of Thomas H. Kean As Tenth President
THE INAUGURATION OF THOMAS H. KEAN AS TENTH PRESIDENT OF DREW UNIVERSITY FRIDAY, THE TWENTIETH OF APRIL NINETEEN HUNDRED AND NINETY TWO O'CLOCK IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE CAMPUS MADISON, NEW JERSEY D R E W UNIVERSITY: A P E R S P E C T I V E Built by renowned scholars, supported by people of vision, nurtured by dedicated leaders, and located on a beautiful tract of land long known as The Forest, Drew University is uniquely poised in its history become a national leader in higher education, for in recent decades Drew has made innovation and distinction the watch- words of its identity. Drew's innovative streak may stem from its birthright. Founded in 1866 as a seminary for the Methodist Epis- copal Church in America, the school was endowed by Daniel Drew with what was at the time the largest gift to American higher education. The financier, whose early cattle dealings gave birth to the original meaning of " watered stock," managed the school's endowment through stock manipulations and speculation until in 1875 his practices nearly bankrupted the young seminary. That crisis necessitated administrative resourcefulness and faculty sacrifice to keep the school open. However uncertain its beginnings, Drew has since grown into a university whose programs--from the Bachelor of Arts to the Master of Divinity to the Doctor of Philosophy--are distinguished by an emphasis on intimate learning and teaching. Drew's three schools--the College of Liberal Arts (1,500 students), the Graduate School ( 350), and the Theological School (350)--share an insistence on academic rigor and a student-centered philosophy that has educated nearly 14,000 living alumni and alumnae.