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Climate Change Assessment Ebeye Solid Waste Management Project (RRP RMI 53082) CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION Project Title: Ebeye Solid Waste Management Project Project Cost: $7.067 million Location: Ebeye, the Republic of Marshall Islands Sector: Waste and other urban infrastructure and services Theme: Urban infrastructure/Climate change and disaster risk management Brief The project will establish a sustainable and effective solid waste management (SWM) system in Description: Ebeye, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), by (i) building a high-temperature incinerator and upgrading the dump site, (ii) upgrading and replacing equipment for municipal SWM, (iii) strengthening institutional capacity to sustain the SWM services. The project will also prevent the spread of transmissible diseases, including the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and waterborne diseases, through improved medical waste disposal and strengthened medical waste management capacity. The project is aligned with the following impact: efficient, effective, resilient, sustainable, and affordable services and facilities that promote sustainable economic growth provided. The project will have the following outcome: coverage and sustainability of integrated SWM service delivery improved in Ebeye. Ebeye is a low-lying atoll with maximum height of under 3 meters above sea level and most of the land is under 2 meters above sea level. The entire island of Ebeye is densely populated with very little spare land. The dump site is located on a small area of land at the north of the island and a high-temperature incinerator will be constructed within the dump site. Natural hazards such as extreme weather events may trigger flooding and costal inundation, which may affect the infrastructure directly. Therefore, disaster- and climate-resilient designs are necessary to protect systems from natural hazards and climate change and are incorporated in the project. Further, the incineration is expected to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by about 73% or 2,688 tons CO2-eq. annually comparing the current approach (disposal at the dump site) with the scenario where the same quantity of waste is incinerated. CO2-eq = carbon dioxide equivalent, COVID-19 = coronavirus disease, GHG = greenhouse gas, RMI = Republic of the Marshall Islands, SWM = solid waste management. Source: Asian Development Bank. II. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE Project Financing Climate Finance ($ million) Source Amount ($ million) Adaptation Mitigation Asian Development Bank Special Funds resources (ADF grant) 6.50 1.29 0 Total 6.50 1.29 0 ADF = Asian Development Fund. Source: Asian Development Bank. III. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT A. Sensitivity of Project Component to Climate or Weather Conditions and the Sea Level From the table below, the project components are highly vulnerable to one hazard and moderately vulnerable to three additional hazards, as follows: Project components (i) Building a high-temperature Vulnerability to sea swells and king tides (possibly compounded with incinerator and upgrading the dump typhoon/storm): High site - Inundations from sea swells and/or high tides may impact infrastructure constructed under the project 2 (ii) Upgrading and replacing Vulnerability to sea swells and king tides (possibly compounded with equipment for municipal solid waste typhoon/storm): Moderate management - Inundations from sea swells and/or high tides may impact SWM operations after the project Vulnerability to extreme heat: Moderate - Extreme temperatures may impact SWM operations after the project (iii) Strengthening institutional Vulnerability to sea swells and king tides (possibly compounded with capacity to sustain the SWM service typhoon/storm): Moderate - Services may require capacity to adapt to climate change and manage disaster risks in SWM assets and operations B. Climate Risk Screening According to the RMI National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management, 2008–2018, natural hazards that potentially negatively impact the country include: tropical storms and typhoons, high surf, and drought.a According to ThinkHazard, the following hazard levels apply:b • Coastal flooding and cyclone: High hazard • Tsunami and extreme heat: medium hazard • Water scarcity: no data. Further, the RMI Disaster Management Reference Handbook lists the following historical of climate/disaster hazards that have affected sites in RMI over recent decades.c Year Event/hazard Area affected 1979 Sea swell Majuro 1988 Tropical storm Roy Kwajalein 1991 Typhoon Zelda All RMI 1992 Tropical storm Axel All RMI 1992 Typhoon Gay Majit 1994 High surf wave action Ajeltake 1997 Typhoon Paka Majuro, Aillinglapalap, Namu 2007 Severe drought All RMI 2008 Sea swell, king tide All RMI 2013 Sea swell, king tide Majuro 2013 Drought 15 atolls north of Majuro 2014 King tides All RMI 2015 - 2017 Drought All RMI Source: Government of RMI. 2019. Republic of the Marshall Islands - Disaster Management Reference Handbook. Majuro. Hence, the key natural hazards to be considered in this assessment are droughts, typhoon/tropical storm, sea swells, king tides, tsunami, and extreme heat. These are considered in turn in the following paragraphs. 1. Droughts. As seen in the above table, droughts have become an increasing hazard in recent years. According to the National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management, annual rainfall has decreased, and droughts have become more severe over recent decades. Rainfall data for Majuro and Kwajalein since the 1950s show a decreasing trend in annual and seasonal rainfall. There has also been a substantial annual variation in rainfall observed. Dry seasons in recent years have been relatively more severe than in the past. Droughts have led to declarations of national drought disasters in 2013 and 2015 (the latter lasting through to 2017). Droughts lead to water and food shortages across the atolls.d 2. Typhoon/tropical storm and associated winds. As seen in the above table, historically typhoon and tropical storms are an important climate hazard on Majuro and across RMI. For example, in 1991 storms and winds associated with typhoon Zelda caused serious damage to infrastructure on many islands. There have been few reports of direct damaged caused by tropical cyclones or storms in recent years, however the storm surge and rainfall associated with such storms can compound the risks and damage associated with coastal flooding and king tides. According to the National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management, the frequency of tropical cyclones increased through to the 1990s, but the trend over the past two decades is unclear. 3. Sea level rise. According to the 2011 report by Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (BOM/CSIRO), sea-levels near the Marshall Islands measured by 3 satellite altimeters have been rising by about 7 millimeters (mm) per year, more than the global average of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year.e Looking forward (BOM/CSIRO, 2014), under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, 16-35 centimeters (cm) of sea level rise (SLR) is projected by 2050.f More recent projections and recent observation data (of 7mm/year over past decades) indicate that the rate at which sea level is rising, is accelerating and some projections suggest that sea level rise in the Pacific may reach as much as 2 meters by 2100. The 2017 study by Deltares provided a quantification of coastal hazards and a coastal risk assessment for the island of Ebeye.g The analysis was based on a collection of the following data types and information: bathymetry, topography, wind-, wave-, and water level data, typhoon tracks and intensity, tsunamis from regional sources, climate change effects and exposure data. From this, inundations (due to combination of sea swell, high tide, and typhoon processes) and coastal erosion processes were estimated and modelled, under current and future climate conditions. Findings from the 2017 study by Deltares include: (i) Percentage of Ebeye island inundated by extreme flooding event. Return period (years) Current percentage 2050, 2100, inundated (SLR = 0) RCP 8.5 (SLR –26cm) RCP 8.5 (SLR –78cm) 5 21.7 33 43.1 10 30.2 41.4 82.2 50 90 93.4 93.4 cm = centimeter, RCP = representative concentration pathway, SLR = sea level rise. Source: Deltares. 2017. Coastal Risk Assessment for Ebeye. Technical report prepared for World Bank. For example, by 2050, under the RCP 8.5 scenario (SLR of 26 cm, which is not a conservative figure), 41.4% of the island will be inundated every 10 years. This rises to 93.4% every 50 years. Both under the current conditions and the RCP 8.5 scenario, a 1 in 10-year event is expected to inundate much of the land in and around the landfill, if not protected. Further, given that the water may come from underground, seawall protection may not provide protection. (ii) Coastal erosion. Under RCP 8.5, coastal retreats of approximately 1 meter can be expected by 2050. This will have a significant impact on the available land area and will threaten certain points. 4. Sea swells and king tides and associated inundations. A coastal flooding event will typically be a compounding of high tide, storm surge/sea swell and large waves (possibly in connection with a typhoon/tropical storm). All coastal low-lying infrastructure is exposed to such events. All RMI atolls are historically exposed to kind tides (see table above). As reported by the RMI Disaster Management Reference Handbook, in December 2008,
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