Ebeye Solid Waste Management Project (RRP RMI 53082)

CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT

I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION

Project Title: Ebeye Solid Waste Management Project Project Cost: $7.067 million Location: Ebeye, the Republic of Sector: Waste and other urban infrastructure and services Theme: Urban infrastructure/Climate change and disaster risk management Brief The project will establish a sustainable and effective solid waste management (SWM) system in Description: Ebeye, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), by (i) building a high-temperature incinerator and upgrading the dump site, (ii) upgrading and replacing equipment for municipal SWM, (iii) strengthening institutional capacity to sustain the SWM services. The project will also prevent the spread of transmissible diseases, including the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and waterborne diseases, through improved medical waste disposal and strengthened medical waste management capacity. The project is aligned with the following impact: efficient, effective, resilient, sustainable, and affordable services and facilities that promote sustainable economic growth provided. The project will have the following outcome: coverage and sustainability of integrated SWM service delivery improved in Ebeye.

Ebeye is a low-lying atoll with maximum height of under 3 meters above sea level and most of the land is under 2 meters above sea level. The entire island of Ebeye is densely populated with very little spare land. The dump site is located on a small area of land at the north of the island and a high-temperature incinerator will be constructed within the dump site. Natural hazards such as extreme weather events may trigger flooding and costal inundation, which may affect the infrastructure directly. Therefore, disaster- and climate-resilient designs are necessary to protect systems from natural hazards and climate change and are incorporated in the project. Further, the incineration is expected to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by about 73% or 2,688 tons CO2-eq. annually comparing the current approach (disposal at the dump site) with the scenario where the same quantity of waste is incinerated. CO2-eq = carbon dioxide equivalent, COVID-19 = coronavirus disease, GHG = greenhouse gas, RMI = Republic of the Marshall Islands, SWM = solid waste management. Source: Asian Development Bank.

II. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE

Project Financing Climate Finance ($ million) Source Amount ($ million) Adaptation Mitigation Asian Development Bank Special Funds resources (ADF grant) 6.50 1.29 0 Total 6.50 1.29 0 ADF = Asian Development Fund. Source: Asian Development Bank.

III. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT

A. Sensitivity of Project Component to Climate or Weather Conditions and the Sea Level

From the table below, the project components are highly vulnerable to one hazard and moderately vulnerable to three additional hazards, as follows: Project components (i) Building a high-temperature Vulnerability to sea swells and king tides (possibly compounded with incinerator and upgrading the dump /storm): High site - Inundations from sea swells and/or high tides may impact infrastructure constructed under the project 2

(ii) Upgrading and replacing Vulnerability to sea swells and king tides (possibly compounded with equipment for municipal solid waste typhoon/storm): Moderate management - Inundations from sea swells and/or high tides may impact SWM operations after the project

Vulnerability to extreme heat: Moderate - Extreme temperatures may impact SWM operations after the project (iii) Strengthening institutional Vulnerability to sea swells and king tides (possibly compounded with capacity to sustain the SWM service typhoon/storm): Moderate - Services may require capacity to adapt to climate change and manage disaster risks in SWM assets and operations B. Climate Risk Screening

According to the RMI National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management, 2008–2018, natural hazards that potentially negatively impact the country include: tropical storms and , high surf, and drought.a According to ThinkHazard, the following hazard levels apply:b • Coastal flooding and cyclone: High hazard • Tsunami and extreme heat: medium hazard • Water scarcity: no data.

Further, the RMI Disaster Management Reference Handbook lists the following historical of climate/disaster hazards that have affected sites in RMI over recent decades.c

Year Event/hazard Area affected 1979 Sea swell 1988 Tropical storm Roy Kwajalein 1991 Typhoon Zelda All RMI 1992 Tropical storm Axel All RMI 1992 Majit 1994 High surf wave action Ajeltake 1997 Majuro, Aillinglapalap, Namu 2007 Severe drought All RMI 2008 Sea swell, king tide All RMI 2013 Sea swell, king tide Majuro 2013 Drought 15 atolls north of Majuro 2014 King tides All RMI 2015 - 2017 Drought All RMI Source: Government of RMI. 2019. Republic of the Marshall Islands - Disaster Management Reference Handbook. Majuro.

Hence, the key natural hazards to be considered in this assessment are droughts, typhoon/tropical storm, sea swells, king tides, tsunami, and extreme heat. These are considered in turn in the following paragraphs.

1. Droughts. As seen in the above table, droughts have become an increasing hazard in recent years. According to the National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management, annual rainfall has decreased, and droughts have become more severe over recent decades. Rainfall data for Majuro and Kwajalein since the 1950s show a decreasing trend in annual and seasonal rainfall. There has also been a substantial annual variation in rainfall observed. Dry seasons in recent years have been relatively more severe than in the past. Droughts have led to declarations of national drought disasters in 2013 and 2015 (the latter lasting through to 2017). Droughts lead to water and food shortages across the atolls.d

2. Typhoon/tropical storm and associated winds. As seen in the above table, historically typhoon and tropical storms are an important climate hazard on Majuro and across RMI. For example, in 1991 storms and winds associated with typhoon Zelda caused serious damage to infrastructure on many islands. There have been few reports of direct damaged caused by tropical cyclones or storms in recent years, however the and rainfall associated with such storms can compound the risks and damage associated with coastal flooding and king tides. According to the National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management, the frequency of tropical cyclones increased through to the 1990s, but the trend over the past two decades is unclear.

3. Sea level rise. According to the 2011 report by Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (BOM/CSIRO), sea-levels near the Marshall Islands measured by 3 satellite altimeters have been rising by about 7 millimeters (mm) per year, more than the global average of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year.e Looking forward (BOM/CSIRO, 2014), under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, 16-35 centimeters (cm) of sea level rise (SLR) is projected by 2050.f More recent projections and recent observation data (of 7mm/year over past decades) indicate that the rate at which sea level is rising, is accelerating and some projections suggest that sea level rise in the Pacific may reach as much as 2 meters by 2100.

The 2017 study by Deltares provided a quantification of coastal hazards and a coastal risk assessment for the island of Ebeye.g The analysis was based on a collection of the following data types and information: bathymetry, topography, wind-, wave-, and water level data, typhoon tracks and intensity, tsunamis from regional sources, climate change effects and exposure data. From this, inundations (due to combination of sea swell, high tide, and typhoon processes) and coastal erosion processes were estimated and modelled, under current and future climate conditions.

Findings from the 2017 study by Deltares include: (i) Percentage of inundated by extreme flooding event. Return period (years) Current percentage 2050, 2100, inundated (SLR = 0) RCP 8.5 (SLR –26cm) RCP 8.5 (SLR –78cm) 5 21.7 33 43.1 10 30.2 41.4 82.2 50 90 93.4 93.4 cm = centimeter, RCP = representative concentration pathway, SLR = sea level rise. Source: Deltares. 2017. Coastal Risk Assessment for Ebeye. Technical report prepared for World Bank.

For example, by 2050, under the RCP 8.5 scenario (SLR of 26 cm, which is not a conservative figure), 41.4% of the island will be inundated every 10 years. This rises to 93.4% every 50 years. Both under the current conditions and the RCP 8.5 scenario, a 1 in 10-year event is expected to inundate much of the land in and around the landfill, if not protected. Further, given that the water may come from underground, seawall protection may not provide protection.

(ii) Coastal erosion. Under RCP 8.5, coastal retreats of approximately 1 meter can be expected by 2050. This will have a significant impact on the available land area and will threaten certain points.

4. Sea swells and king tides and associated inundations. A coastal flooding event will typically be a compounding of high tide, storm surge/sea swell and large waves (possibly in connection with a typhoon/tropical storm). All coastal low-lying infrastructure is exposed to such events. All RMI atolls are historically exposed to kind tides (see table above). As reported by the RMI Disaster Management Reference Handbook, in December 2008, the highest tides of the year coincided with a large storm, resulting in waves up to three meters high that washed out roads and seawalls, ruined crops, and flooded homes and graveyards.

The term king tide is commonly used to describe an especially high spring tide, although king tides occur naturally several times every year. In the Pacific, the highest king tides often occur during the months from November to March. In recent years, flooding and damage caused by high and king tides have occurred with increasing frequency and intensity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States reported that the frequency of high tide floods on Kwajalein have grown to more than 5 days a year on average, compared to fewer than 1 day a year in 2000, i.e., a 5-fold increase in high tide floods has been observed within the past two decades.h In 2014, much of Majuro was temporarily inundated and 70 homes damaged. Flooding and damage have occurred at some site at least annually since, including in February 2018.

5. Tsunami. According to the coastal hazard risk conducted by Deltares (2017), tsunamis are estimated to be a minor source of hazard on Ebeye. Hence this hazard is discounted from this study (endnote g).

6. Extreme heat. According to the RMI Climate Risk Country Profile, the Marshall Islands regularly experiences relatively high temperatures.i It is projected that climate change will push temperatures to levels uncomfortable for the human body, especially when measured through ‘heat index’ which also considers the impact of humidity levels. The projected change for the Marshall Islands likely signals the potential for extremely uncomfortable conditions, with local impacts and repercussions.

C. Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment

1. Inundations from sea swells and/or high tides impacts infrastructure constructed under the project The current threat and climate change: 4

This is the only hazard to which the project is considered highly vulnerable. Any combination of high tides, high waves and storm swells may lead to inundation. This includes overtopping. It may also include sea water rising through the ground in low lying area. Typhoons or storms may compound any impact.

Conclusion: In conclusion, the entire Ebeye island, including the dump site, is vulnerable to regular inundation and to a growing threat of erosion. The scale and regularity of the inundation will increase significantly with climate change induced sea level rise. In addition to overtopping, the inundation may arise from underground seeping (depending on geological conditions).

The adaptive measures already adopted in the proposed project design: The project design incorporates adaptation and resilience measures: (i) the construction of a seawall along the western and northern shorelines to protect the project site (cost $675,000), (ii) allocating funds to manage stormwaters on the site (cost $50,000), and (iii) organizing and covering the existing waste (cost $52,500). Further, (iv) the incinerator will be constructed on the structure of metal beam (1.5 meters) above concrete foundation (cost $50,000).

The adaptation and resilience measures to be provided as part of the preparation of detailed engineering design: (i) A proper analysis of the threat to the project site presented by inundation (including potential of sea water rising up through the ground), will be undertaken as a basis to determine the adaption/resilience measures required. This should predict the scale and frequency and location of inundations. Ideally this analysis should be based on full Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data on current elevations at all sites. (ii) The final design of the all project infrastructure and sea defenses must fully take into account the findings of the analysis from (i) above, and be designed to match appropriate international standards (e.g. Australian or New Zealand or US) with regards to return periods and infrastructure lifetimes. (iii) A long-term plan to prepare for anticipated SLR of up to 16-35 cm by 2050 should be prepared.

2. Inundations from sea swells and/or high tides may impact SWM operations after the project The current threat and climate change: This is rated as a moderate vulnerability. The above analysis provides information on the risks and likelihoods and scales of potential inundation events.

The adaptive measures already adopted in the proposed project design: In addition to the measures mentioned above, the waste collection and transportation plan to be developed under output 3 of the project will address disaster risk management, including measures to be taken in response to inundations and overtopping.

3. Extreme temperatures may impact SWM operations after the project Threat: This is rated as moderate vulnerability. According to BOM/CSIRO (2014), an extreme high temperature event (i.e. a 1 in 20-year event) will be up to 2.1 degrees warmer by 2050. This may affect the health of the staff and the efficiency of the operations.

Measures already proposed: The waste collection and transportation plan to be developed under output 3 of the project will ensure staff health during extremely high temperature events.

4. Services may require capacity to adapt to climate change and manage disaster risks in SWM assets and operations Threat: This is rated as moderate vulnerability. Currently, it may be assumed that staff at all levels are aware of climate change and its impacts in general terms but have little knowledge of the specific impacts in their sector nor of potential adaptation measures and costs.

Measures already proposed: The waste collection and transportation plan to be developed under output 3 of the project will address disaster risk management. RCP = representative concentration pathway. a Government of RMI. 2007. National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management, 2008 – 2018. Majuro. b A web-based tool, compiled by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, that provides a general view of disaster/climate hazards for a given location that should be considered in project design and implementation. Sourced from World Bank/ADB, 2019. Available at: http://thinkhazard.org/. c Government of RMI. 2019. Republic of the Marshall Islands - Disaster Management Reference Handbook. Majuro. 5

d To meet this challenge of more frequent droughts, a new desalination plant has been installed in Ebeye under ADB’s ongoing Ebeye Water Supply and Sanitation Project and its operation is also being supported by the project. ADB. Republic of the Marshall Islands: Ebeye Water Supply and Sanitation Project. e Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. 2011. Report: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research. f Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. 2014. Climate Variability, Extremes and Change in the Western Tropical Pacific: New Science and Updated Country Reports. g Deltares. 2017. Coastal Risk Assessment for Ebeye. Technical report prepared for World Bank. h National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States. 2018. Patterns and Projections of High Tide Flooding Along the U.S. Coastline Using a Common Impact Threshold. NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 086. Silver Spring. i World Bank/ADB, 2019. Climate Risk Country Profile - Republic of the Marshall Islands.

IV. CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLANS WITHIN THE PROJECT

Target Climate Estimated Adaptation Finance Adaptation Activity Risk Adaptation Costs Justification Construction of a seawall along Inundations from $1,000,000 The project covers 270 meters of the western and northern sea swells and/or shorelines, and procuring seawall is shorelines to protect the project high tides estimated to cost $3,700 per meter. site

Allocating funds to manage Inundations from $50,000 A climate risk study recommended stormwaters on the site sea swells and/or the construction of these additional high tides structures in anticipation of the impact of extreme flooding expected under projected climate change in the project area. Organizing and covering the Inundations from $52,500 To prevent erosion, the old waste existing waste sea swells and/or accumulated on-site will be high tides organized as a mound in the best suited area of the site. The waste should be covered with a layer of material accordance with the RMI SWM regulations.

The incinerator will be Inundations from $190,000 A climate risk study recommended constructed on the structure of sea swells and/or the construction of this additional metal beam (1.5 meters) above high tides structures in anticipation of the sea the concrete foundation level rise of up to 16-35 cm by 2050. cm = centimeter, RMI = Republic of the Marshall Islands, SMW = solid waste management. Source: Asian Development Bank.

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