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Folder ID: F17059 ISAD Reference Code THE WORLD BANK GROUP ARCHIVES PUBLIC DISCLOSURE AUTHORIZED Folder Title: Working Paper - Agriculture and Forestry - Shandong Agricultural Development Project - China - June 7, 1988 Folder ID: F17059 Dates: 6/7/1988 Fonds: Records of the East Asia and Pacific Regional Vice Presidency ISAD Reference Code: WB IBRD/IDA EAP Digitized: 11/14/2014 To cite materials from this archival folder, please follow the following format: [Descriptive name of item], [Folder Title], Folder ID [Folder ID], World Bank Group Archives, Washington, D.C., United States. The records in this folder were created or received by The World Bank in the course of its business. The records that were created by the staff of The World Bank are subject to the Bank’s copyright. Please refer to http://www.worldbank.org/terms-of-use-earchives for full copyright terms of use and disclaimers. THE WORLD BANK Washington, D.C. © International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Development Association or The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org . / \\ 11 11 11 11 11 1111 1111 11 11 11 1111111 111111 11 1 } ."! 0,11••·..; ·~... F17069 Ard11ve.s . 219aae \ . <· , R1990-099 Other#. 21 Pro·ect - Working Paper.. : .. , . Agriculture and Forestry • Shandong Agricultural Development J China. June 7, 1988 DECLASSIFIED WBG Archives Report No.: 61/88 CP-CPR 20 WP 2 Date: 7 June 1988 __________ • CHINA SHANDONG AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPME AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY WORKING PAPER FAD/World Bank Cooperative Programme Investment Centre FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS ROME Working Paper 2 CHINA SHANDONG AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY TABLE OF CONTENTS A. Introduction 1 B. Background 1 - Land Use and Agricultural Production 2 - Input Supplies 4 C. Rationale 5 D. Project Proposals 7 - Tuhai Irrigation: 7 - Farm Income 9 - Economic Returns 9 - Import of Fertilizers 10 - Strengthening Seed Processing Centres 12 - Date Interplanting 13 - Date Processing 15 Fast Growing Forest Trees 16 Other Observations 17 MAP 1: Location of Project Sites TABLES 1. Population and Land Use 2. Tuhai Irrigation - Cropping Patterns and Cropped Area 3. Tuhai Irrigation - Crop Yields and Production at Full Development 4. Supply and Demand of Improved Seeds in Project Counties (Present Situation) 5. Estimated Shortage of Fertilizers ('000 tons) Without Project 6. Agriculture and Forestry Projects - Summary 7. Fertilizer Distribution and Application, Benefits 8. Supply and Demand of Improved Seeds in Project Counties (Future with Project) 9. Production Increase and Coverage with Project at Full Development 10. Summary: Area and Production - Participants and Farm Size 11. Sub-Project - Date Interplanting 12. Production of Date Products 13. Establishment of Fast Growing Trees, Area, Production and Investment Costs 14. Tu hai Irrigation - Crop Budget at Full Development 15. Crop Budget - Date Interplanting 16. Crop Budget - Fast Growing Trees 17. Border Prices for Principal Products and Inputs 18. Economic Analysis - Tuhai Irrigation 19. Financial Analysis - Small Dates 20. Financial Analysis - Large Dates APPENDIX 1: Cost Tables Working Paper 2 Page 1 CHINA SHANOONG AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY A. Introduction 1. The project's agricultural and forestry sub-components include agricultural development in the Tuhai irrigation areas,· importation and distribution of diammoniu1m phosphate fertilizers, strengthening seed processing centres, Chinese date interplanting, date processing and establishment of fast growing forest trees. Draft fea~ibility stµdies of these have been prepared by the engineering and agricultural staff in the counties with help from provincial agencies such as the Water Conservancy Bureau for the Tuhai irrigation sub-component, the Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture for fertilizers and seeds and the Bureau of Forestry for dates and fast growing trees. The provincial Government's strategy for the project is that funds should be more or less equally distributed amongst counties. This approach appears reasonable since most counties have similar needs for development although priorities vary, and hence some flexibility in the ultimate allocationof rsources will be required. 2. The feasibility reports on the agriculture and forestry sub­ components were made availalble only during the latter part of the mission's visit. Although there w~s ·a considerable amount of data to support proposal in the reports prepared by each of the counties, they were inadequate for detailed preparation and there were significant but not readily explicable differences in the assumptilons made on the inputs and outputs associated with essentially similar activities. Much of the information used in this Working Paper was therefore prepared by the county staff during the mission's visit and still falls short of requirements for appraisal. County staff have been asked to provide additional information for the pre­ appraisal mission. 3. Under these cir:umstances, the mission concentrated its efforts pricipally on seeking to S\Jmmarise the proposals in a coherent manner and to assess their viability. It was not possible to make a substantive input into the choice of activities oir to influence the proposals on this scale. (See Issues below). B. Background 4. General. Twelve counties have made agricultural and forestry development proposals, namely: Xinxian, Yanggu, Oonge, Chiping and Gaotang in Liaocheng Prefecture; Jiyang and Shanghe in Oezhou Prefecture and Huimen, Yangxin, Wudi, Zhanhua, and Binzhou in Huimen Prefecture. The project areas in the counties have a population of about 5.9 million of which approximately 93% are dependent on agriculture for a living. The average size of land cultivated pier farm family is about 0.24 ha. The gross area is 1.4 million ha, of which about 900,000 ha are arable (para.7). Working Paper 2 Page 2 5. Climate. In general the climate is suitable for crop production although yields of annual crops are adversely affected by seasonal flooding, drought and occasional frost. The average annual rainfall is 580 mm of which about 66% falls in summe~r (June, July and August), 18% in the autumn • (September to November), 3% in winter (December to February) and 13% in the spring (March-May). Due to poor drainage approximately 71,000 ha of cultivable land are normally affected by waterlogging in July and August. A further 116,000 ha are classified as being offected by drought from Octob~r to May The annual average tempera ure is ld C. Temperatures range from 24 C to 27 0C in June (summer) to -10 C to -27 C in January (winter). There are about 210 frost-free days but there has been no severe frost damage to crops during the last five years. 6. Topography and Soils. The project area lies in the alluvial plains of the Yellow {Huanghe) Riv1~r, with a natural gradient of 1/8000 to 1/10000 and sloping from south-w1~st to north-east to the Bohai Sea. Higher areas generally tend to be free f1rom salinity, but low areas commonly suffer from this as well as waterlogging. 7. About 70% of th1~ area has loamy soils, 18% clayey soils and 12% sandy soils. In general the soils are adequate in potassium (50-150 ppm) but low in nitrogen, phosphoirus and organic matter. Nitrogen content is less than 60 ppm and organic matter lower than 10% in about 80% of the project area and phosphate is only 5-10 ppm in about half the area. Land . Use and Agricultural Production 8. Land Use. A detail~d breakdown of land use is given in twelve counties in Table 1. Of the gross area of 1.4 million ha, 906,000 ha are arable land of which approximately 748,000 ha are cultivated with annual crops, 9,700 ha are orchard, 49,000 ha are grasslands and 30,000 ha forest. There are approximately 205,000 ha of potentially arable land that can be developed for agriculture. ~otal cropped area in the five irrigation schemes to be improved under the project (Working Paper 1) is estimated at 495,000 ha, of which around 90,000 ha are fully irrigated, about 38,000 ha and 367,000 ha rainfed. 9. Crop Production. In the five Tuhai irrigation systems the most important crops are grain and cotton, which account for approx imately 67% and 21% of the total cropped area and the remaining 12% consists of peanut (1.3%), soybean (8.5%) a.nd vegetables (2.2%). Of the foodgrains, 38% is wheat, 24% is maize (corn) and only 5% of other cereals such as sorghum and millet. The predominant crop rotation adopted is either corn, planted in June, followed by wheat, planted in October and harvested in June or cotton (with winter fallow) and cotton for 6-9 years before reverting to corn and wheat. Current cropping intensity is about 148% and this ranges from 143% in Han Dun to ·158% in Guo Kou irrigation system (Table 2). 10. Considerable variation exists in crop yields even within one irrigation system (Table 3)1. Estimated yields of major crops are as follows: Working Paper 2 Page 4 13. Present estimated annual production of fresh dates in the ten project counties is 18,400 tons. The dates are eaten locally both fresh and dried, and dried dates exported. Only 10% of total production is processed to a range of date products including jams and cordials. Average consumption of fresh and dried dates in the producing centres is estimated at about 1.5 kg per head, compared to only about 0.1 kg per head nationally. The "dark date" from Chiping coLJnty is well-known in South-East Asia, Hong Kong and Macau. Export overseas of dried dates and products have been on an increasing trend; 472 tons iin 1985, 627 tons in 1986 and 971 tons in 1987. 14. Timber Production. Shandong is short of forest resources.
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