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The Jihe Expressway in Shandong Province

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The Jihe Expressway in Shandong Province THIS DOCUMENT IS IN DRAFT FORM, INCOMPLETE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND THAT THE INFORMATION MUST BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SECTION HEADED ‘‘WARNING’’ ON THE COVER OF THIS DOCUMENT. APPENDIX V TRAFFIC CONSULTANT’S REPORT The following is an extract of an independent traffic consultation report prepared by WB Group International Limited in respect of the traffic flow and toll income forecast of the Jihe Expressway in Shandong Province. WB Group International Limited, Room 1109, 11/F, Kowloon Centre, 33 Ashley Road, Tsim Sha Tsui, Kowloon, Hong Kong, the PRC [REDACTED] The Directors Qilu Expressway Company Limited, Room 2301, Block 4, Zone 3, Hanyu Financial & Business Centre, No.7000 Jingshi East Road, High-tech Zone, Jinan City, Shandong Province, PRC Dear Sirs, The Jihe Expressway in Shandong Province Traffic Flow and Toll Income Forecasting Study — Executive Summary WB Group International Limited (the ‘‘Consultant’’) was appointed by Shandong Jihe Expressway Company Limited (it was renamed as ‘‘Qilu Expressway Company Limited’’ after conversion) to provide traffic consultation services and carry out an independent traffic flow and toll income forecast for the Jihe Expressway in Shandong Province (the ‘‘Jihe Expressway’’). This Traffic Flow and Toll Income ForecastingStudywaspreparedwithallreasonable and professional techniques, judgement, care and due diligence. The findings of this report are summarised below: 1 INTRODUCTION TheJiheExpresswayisthestartingsectionoftheJinan—GuangzhouExpressway (No. G35) within the national highway network planned by the Ministry of Transport. The Jihe Expressway passes through 9 districts/counties under 4 cities (namely Jinan, Tai’an, Jining, Heze) with a total length of 153.6 km. It connects Yinjialin interchange to the north, which connects Beijing-Shanghai Expressway (Beijing-Taibei Expressway) and Jinan Ring Road, and Rizhao — Dongming Expressway to the south. The two-way four-lane designed Jihe Expressway is a closed system expressway with full operational interchanges and has a design speed of 120 km per hour. The Jihe Expressway started construction in December 2004 and put into operation on 28 September 2007. The location of the Jihe Expressway is shownonFigure1-1. –V-1– THIS DOCUMENT IS IN DRAFT FORM, INCOMPLETE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND THAT THE INFORMATION MUST BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SECTION HEADED ‘‘WARNING’’ ON THE COVER OF THIS DOCUMENT. APPENDIX V TRAFFIC CONSULTANT’S REPORT Figure 1-1 Location of the Jihe Expressway 2 STUDY APPROACH The study approach and work steps are summarised below: Step 1: Mobilisation and Data Collection — The Consultant firstly collected relevant information of the Jihe Expressway, including development trend of the economy and transportation sector and objectives or forecasts of future development projects in Shandong Province, Henan Province, Hebei Province, Anhui Province and Jiangsu Province. Step 2: Route Survey — The Consultant conducted a detailed survey of the route, in particular the survey of the major roads, to understand the traffic conditions. The development and economic activities along the expressway were observed by driving through the expressway. The travel time and distance were recorded to assess the traffic speed and existing service level of the expressway. Step 3: Traffic Count Survey and Origin-destination (O-D) Survey —Themain purpose of this task is to collect existing traffic travel patterns along the Jihe Expressway as well as all relevant parallel national and provincial highways. The Consultant planned and supervised all traffic surveys, including 24 hours roadside interview surveys for O-D information, vehicle types and types of goods carried by the interviewed trucks. The Consultant also obtained the traffic flow information of the expressways in Shandong Province in order to verify the corresponding data collected from the surveys. –V-2– THIS DOCUMENT IS IN DRAFT FORM, INCOMPLETE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND THAT THE INFORMATION MUST BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SECTION HEADED ‘‘WARNING’’ ON THE COVER OF THIS DOCUMENT. APPENDIX V TRAFFIC CONSULTANT’S REPORT Step 4: Annualisation of Traffic Flow Data — Data collected in Step 3 were used to establish and assess the traffic of the expressway and calculate the annualised daily average traffic flow of the Jihe Expressway and other nearby highways. Time value and operation cost were also determined. Step 5: Road Network Development in Traffic Forecasting Model —Thistask included the development of a computer simulation model to replicate the existing traffic conditions along the Jihe Expressway. The computer model simulation software EMME/3 was used to develop and calibrate the road network model. The Consultant believed that the future road network variations within the influenced area will have significant impacts on the traffic forecasting results. Therefore, much efforts were spent by the Consultant to retrieve and review most recent and reliable highway and infrastructure planning and implementation programs from relevant government agencies. Step 6: Socio-economic Analysis — Another important task was to understand and to predict socio-economic development trends in Shandong Province as well as the vicinity. The Consultant carried out detailed analyses and assessment on the latest socio-economic information released by the government agencies. This task was to identify possible numerical relationships between historical travel demand figures and socio-economic parameters. The extensive coverage and details of the data will dictate the accuracy of the coefficients. Step 7: Distribution and Assignment of Traffic Model —TheresultsofSteps3to5 formed the basis for the development of a computer traffic forecasting model. The remaining works were to establish and to calibrate conventional trip distribution and trip assignment models in order to replicate existing traffic flow and conditions. For future forecasting, the traffic demand estimations were adjusted based on the findings in Step 6. Step 8: Traffic Flow and Toll Income Forecast — The traffic flow forecasting model wasfine-tunedafterinformationinrelationtoroadnetworkplan,socialand economic condition, maintenance cost, economic growth and toll income for the coming year had been made available. The Consultant then carried out detailed traffic and revenue forecasting works using the finalised traffic forecasting model. –V-3– THIS DOCUMENT IS IN DRAFT FORM, INCOMPLETE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND THAT THE INFORMATION MUST BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SECTION HEADED ‘‘WARNING’’ ON THE COVER OF THIS DOCUMENT. APPENDIX V TRAFFIC CONSULTANT’S REPORT 3 COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC FLOW AND TOLL INCOME DATA 3.1 Historical Traffic Flow and Toll Income Data The Jihe Expressway commenced its operation in September 2007. The Consultant considered that the traffic compositions, vehicular modes and traffic flow have become stabilised by the time of the report. The Consultant obtained the annual toll income information from 2011 to 2017 from Qilu Expressway Company Limited and the findings are summarised in Figure 3-1. Figure 3-1 Historical Annual Toll Income of the Jihe Expressway (RMB Ten Thousand) Historical Annual Toll Income (RMB Ten Thousand) 120,000 100,000 106,907 101,761 80,000 84,564 85,886 73,289 60,000 58,623 61,445 40,000 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Qilu Expressway Company Limited, 2018 3.2 Station to Station Traffic Data The Consultant obtained from the Shandong Province Expressway Toll Settlement Centre the Station-to-Station traffic data for seven days from 19 March 2017 to 25 March 2017. The data are records of each vehicle traveling in and out of the highway network in Shandong Province, including vehicle types, gross weight (trucks) and toll charges. This data reflects the latest traffic information in normal circumstances which enabled the Consultant to understand the compositions of the vehicle stream, the origins and destinations of vehicles and total distance travelled on the Jihe Expressway. As there is no main line toll station on the Jihe Expressway, the Station-to-Station traffic data also helps understand the characteristics of traffic patterns. The advantages of deriving the traffic pattern on the expressway system from the Station-to-Station data are: 1. The data was recorded by electronic devices without any on-site investigations and surveys, thereby avoiding unnecessary disturbance to the traffic; –V-4– THIS DOCUMENT IS IN DRAFT FORM, INCOMPLETE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND THAT THE INFORMATION MUST BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SECTION HEADED ‘‘WARNING’’ ON THE COVER OF THIS DOCUMENT. APPENDIX V TRAFFIC CONSULTANT’S REPORT 2. The data was directly obtained from Shandong Expressway Toll Settlement Centre avoiding mistakes arising from manual data entry and coding processes of O-D data. This enhanced the accuracy of the base traffic data used in subsequent analyses; 3. The data represented a 100% universe and 24 hour records on the expressway system (except for toll-exempted and toll-free vehicles). The discrepancies and duplications likely to be incurredbyamanualsurveysamplingmethod were thereby avoided. 3.3 Supplementary Surveys In order to have a better understanding of the existing traffic levels, travel directions and traffic compositions of the Jihe Expressway, the Consultant undertook the following 24-hour traffic surveys on 20 March 2018 (under ordinary operation and weather condition): Origin-Destination Survey (O-D Survey), in-out classified traffic
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