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Italy's Defence Policy: What to Expect from the 2018 Elections?

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Italy's Defence Policy: What to Expect from the 2018 Elections? Italy’s Defence Policy: What to Expect from the 2018 Elections? © 2018 IAI by Alessandro Marrone Italians will head to the polls on 4 March latest Italian centre-left governments. 2018 to elect both houses of parliament, According to pollsters, the populist Five the Italian Chamber of Deputies and Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle, ISSN 22532-6570 the Senate. Uncertainty surrounding M5S) ranks second, securing between the results is significant. Yet, a strong 25 and 30 percent of the vote. Italy’s line of continuity is expected in Italian centre-left Democratic Party (Partito (foreign) and defence policy with Democratico, PD) and its smaller allies, regards to key issues such as European in power since 2013, are together defence cooperation and integration, polled at 25-30 percent. Finally, the commitments to NATO, military leftist grouping, Free and Equal (Liberi operations in Africa and the greater e Uguali, LeU), is predicted to receive Middle East – including on migration around 5-8 percent of the vote, and has control – and defence spending. already ruled out any coalition alliance with the PD. Recent polls predict that 35 to 40 percent of votes will flow to the conservative Italy’s electoral law stipulates that two- centre-right coalition formed by thirds of seats in both chambers are Forza Italia (FI), Lega and Brothers of allocated proportionally to party lists Italy (Fratelli d’Italia, FdI)1 together that have secured over 3 percent of with a smaller gathering of Christian- the popular vote. Another third is won democrats which have supported the through a first-pass-the-post system involving more than 300 constituencies across Italy. Such a mixed system puts 1 See for example: “Sondaggi, il Pd ancora più a premium on larger coalitions – i.e. giù: è al 22% (ma gli alleati crescono). Il M5s fermo al 28, centrodestra davanti di 10 punti”, the conservative camp – by under- in Il Fatto Quotidiano, 10 January 2018, https:// representing smaller parties such as www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/?p=4085266. Alessandro Marrone is Senior Fellow within the Security, Defence, Space Programme at the IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 05 - JANUARY 2018 18 | 05 - JANUARY IAI COMMENTARIES Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). 1 Italy’s Defence Policy: What to Expect from the 2018 Elections? LeU which has no chance of winning and practical grounds.3 It is not by any constituency.2 chance that the launch of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) has As a result, two scenarios are likely: been perceived in Italy as a positive either the conservatives get an absolute breakthrough towards more effective majority in both chambers, thereby forms of European defence.4 Such a forming a government, or they win the consensus reflects the active support elections while falling short of such by the Italian military, diplomatic © 2018 IAI a majority. In the second scenario, corps, civil servants, defence industry the option of a “grand coalition” and expert community, which promote government between the PD and Italy’s this issue at a working level and mainstream forces in the conservative within various Italian institutions, camp – Forza Italia, the Christian- thus influencing politicians and the democrats and, perhaps, FdI – will executive. probably be pursued. In both cases, the populist M5S will remain in the Alongside this pro-European stance, a opposition. favourable “Atlanticist” attitude towards ISSN 2532-6570 the US and NATO represents another Against this backdrop, it is worthwhile traditional pillar of Italy’s (foreign) to analyse the recent defence policies and defence policy. Between 2014 and supported by conservative forces 2017, Italy grew to become the second and the PD as a means to predict the largest contributor in terms of troops direction Italian defence policy may to the US-led coalition to counter the take following the elections. Analysing self-proclaimed Islamic State, with a policies is preferable compared to military commitment of about 1,500 a focus on the often contradictory soldiers – including special forces and statements made by political leaders trainers, – around 420 land vehicles and during a heated electoral campaign. an air task force of 17 assets including Such an approach highlights a broad fighter aircraft, UAVs, helicopters consensus on Italian (foreign) and and refuelling tankers.5 Concerning defence policy over the last decade under successive executives: Paolo 3 Alessandro Marrone, “Italy, A Steady Supporter Gentiloni, Matteo Renzi, Enrico Letta, of European Defence”, in EU Forum, 6 November Mario Monti and Silvio Berlusconi. 2017, https://www.clingendael.org/node/8631. 4 Marco Bresolin, “Nasce la Difesa europea, First, and despite the recent growth che cosa prevede e come funziona”, in La Stampa, 13 November 2017, http://www. of euro-scepticism in Italy, European lastampa.it/2017/11/13/esteri/nasce-la-difesa- defence cooperation and integration europea-che-cosa-prevede-e-come-funziona- enjoys substantial support from the UeaKn5TWqNTJGdRME6oqyK/pagina.html; Beda Romano “Nasce ‘PeSCo’, nuova cooperazione political establishment and mainstream militare UE per la difesa europea”, in Il Sole 24 public opinion, on both normative Ore, 12 November 2017, http://www.ilsole24ore. com/art/mondo/2017-11-12/nasce-pesco- 2 See for example this simulation of seats nuova-cooperazione-militare-ue-la-difesa- allocation: Istituto Ixè, Simulazione dei collegi europea-105722.shtml. alla Camera e al Senato, 30 December 2017, 5 Italian Ministry of Defence website: Prima http://www.istitutoixe.it/?p=3402. Parthica: Contributo nazionale, https://www.difesa. IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 05 - JANUARY 2018 18 | 05 - JANUARY IAI COMMENTARIES 2 Italy’s Defence Policy: What to Expect from the 2018 Elections? NATO, Italy has strongly supported the three missions aimed at countering, in reassurance, deterrence and defence different ways, people smugglers and measures decided in 2014 in light of illegal migration. Russia’s aggressive posture. Rome volunteered to take the lead of the Very These missions include EUNAVFOR Rapid Joint Task Force in 2018, has MED Sophia, an anti-smuggling repeatedly ensured air policing of the operation launched by the EU in 2015 Baltic republics and contributed 200 in the Mediterranean Sea to replace the © 2018 IAI troops to the allied Enhanced Forward previous Italian-only operation Mare Presence in Estonia. At the same time, Nostrum. Commanded by Admiral Italy has insisted that the Alliance Enrico Credendino, the operational contribute more to the stabilization headquarters mission is located in of the southern neighbourhood, and Rome. obtained the establishment of a “hub for the South” at NATO’s Joint Force The second mission is a national one, Command in Naples.6 These policies active since July 2017, and aimed at have not been criticized neither by the strengthening the Libyan coastguard ISSN 2532-6570 PD nor the conservative camp. via capacity building, training, intelligence and logistics assistance. Finally in Afghanistan, which has On December 2017, the mission was been the most demanding operational merged with another Italian land theatre for the US and NATO over the mission in Libya, Operation Ippocrate, last fifteen years, Italy continues to be ongoing since 2016, with the aim to the largest European contributor to the provide comprehensive assistance to Resolute Support mission with above the UN-backed Libyan government in 1,000 troops – twice the size of the Tripoli.8 UK’s contingent.7 In both the Iraqi and Afghan theatres, Italy is set to decrease The third mission, approved in its military commitment in accordance December 2017, sees the deployment of with agreements with allies, a course more than 470 troops and 200 vehicles of action accepted by both the PD and to Niger, alongside France, Germany mainstream conservative parties. and the US in the framework of G5 Sahel. The main goal is to enhance local Together with the long standing counter-terrorism and border control military operations in Europe, capabilities, efforts that fit into Italy’s Afghanistan, Lebanon and the Horn willingness to enhance cooperation of Africa, the last parliament approved with France and Germany on European defence, as well as with Rome’s energy it/OperazioniMilitari/op_intern_corso/Prima_ interests in the region.9 Parthica/Pagine/contributo_nazionale.aspx. 6 Carolina Polito and Paola Sartori, “Italy, the North Atlantic Alliance and the 2018 NATO 8 Pietro Batacchi, “Più incisivo l’impegno italiano Summit”, in IAI Commentaries, No. 17|33 (21 in Libia”, in RID Portale Difesa, 8 January 2018, December 2017), http://www.iai.it/en/node/8643. http://www.portaledifesa.it/index~phppag,3_ 7 NATO, Resolute Support Mission in id,2099.html. Afghanistan, 10 November 2017, https://www. 9 Jean-Pierre Darnis, “Niger: la missione nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_113694.htm. militare italiana, un nuovo corso”, in IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 05 - JANUARY 2018 18 | 05 - JANUARY IAI COMMENTARIES 3 Italy’s Defence Policy: What to Expect from the 2018 Elections? These missions are meant to answer approach is likely to dominate over domestic demands to reduce and the latter in the event that elections control the extraordinary migratory result in a new government with the flows experienced by Italy since the conservatives in the driving seat. collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya. With more than 700,000 people The last example of continuity between arriving on Italian shores over the last the conservatives and PD regards five years, efforts to limit migration
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