Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series

Equity in the Global Stocktake and

Independent Global Stocktake

Christian Holz, Tom Athanasiou, and Sivan Kartha

1

Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake

Christian Holz*, Tom Athanasiou, and Sivan Kartha

December 2019 © Climate Equity Reference Project 2019 Cite as: Holz, Christian, Tom Athanasiou, and Sivan Kartha (2019) “Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake,” iGST Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series. Berkeley, Boston, Ottawa: Climate Equity Reference Project. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2595493

* Corresponding Author: [email protected]

Download the report https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2595493

About the iGST initiative and this report series The Independent Global Stocktake (iGST) is an umbrella data and advocacy initiative that brings together climate modelers, analysts, campaigners and advocates to support the Paris Agreement. https://www.climateworks.org/independentglobalstocktake/

The Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series envisions the contours of an ideal Global Stocktake and suggests ways in which the independent community can help to achieve that vision. These papers were produced by iGST partner organizations in consultation with the broader community, but the views expressed are the authors’ own and don't necessarily reflect those of the iGST initiative or associated partner organizations.

Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to Jason Anderson (ClimateWorks Foundation), Guy Cunliffe (African Climate & Development Initiative, University of Cape Town (UCT)), Kennedy Mbeva (Australian- German Energy and Climate College, University of Melbourne), Pieter Pauw (Frankfurt School of Finance and Management), Wolfgang Obergassel (Wuppertal Institut), Joe Thwaites and David Waskow (World Resources Institute), Harald Winkler (Energy Research Centre, UCT), and Vincente Yu for providing feedback on an earlier version of this paper. Any remaining omissions, errors, and so forth are, of course, the authors’ alone. The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the ClimateWorks Foundation that made this report possible. All opinions expressed in this paper remain the authors’ own.

Template design: ClimateWorks Foundation

3

+ Contents

+ Introduction ...... 5 + Scope of the Equity Challenge in i/GST Activities ...... 7 + Transparency and Standards of Equity Information and Benchmarks ...... 11 + Climate Finance and Support ...... 14 + Intranational Equity ...... 19 + Procedural Equity in Stocktaking Activities ...... 21 + Summary ...... 23 + References ...... 25

Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019

+ Introduction

Equity1 is enshrined in article 14 of the Paris decision on the GST during the Katowice Agreement (PA) as one of the two overarching climate summit in 2018, characterizing equity principles of the Global Stocktake (GST), which as “cross-cutting” and deciding to consider it is mandated to be conducted “in the light of “throughout the GST” [2]. equity and the best available science.” [1] The Given equity's central importance in the inclusion of equity in the PA’s language on UNFCCC and the PA, it is essential to consider the GST is not coincidental but was rather a general principles as well as the specific hard-won agreement in the final hours of the elements and activities that the conduct of a Paris climate summit,2 a fact that underlines GST “in the light of equity” implies and requires. its importance. As the last-minute crunch After all, any GST that does not take equity came down, the parties that had insisted on into proper account would be in glaring deprecating “equity” in the GST and elsewhere violation of the provisions of article 14.1 and in the PA, arguing that it was merely a blocking thus lose legitimacy and risk failing its device, yielded to those who insisted that, promise as, arguably, the most important despite all, equity remained fundamental to element of the PA’s ambition ratcheting ensuring that the GST would properly reflect mechanism. It is our view that without a well- the principles of the UNFCCC and the PA. functioning GST, the other elements of the PA’s Further, the way in which “equity and the best ambition mechanism (e.g. the transparency available science” is brought into the GST regime, the NDCs, the dynamic cycles etc.) article of the PA clearly indicates that equity is constitute a weak ambition mechanism at best not merely to be considered as one topic area – a GST that includes a coherent equity among others, but that the entirety of the GST assessment of pledges, actions, and support, is to be conducted in its light. Parties to the and that lends itself to the construction of UNFCCC explicitly endorsed this view in their politically powerful norms is required to

1 “Equity” is a broad concept that has different the success of the UNFCCC regime since it ensures, meanings in different contexts. In the context of the among other things, that countries are not expected to UNFCCC and, by extension, the Paris Agreement (PA), it contribute at levels that would, without support, primarily refers to the notion that different countries, overburden them, given their level of development, while primarily, but not exclusively, due to their different levels on the other hand seeking to ensure that countries with of economic development, are subject to different sets of higher level of development fulfill the obligations and obligations and expectations with regards to their make the contributions appropriate for them. Thus, equity activities to address the various aspects of climate ensures an overall higher level of ambition through change. This is reflected in the UNFCCC primarily through obligations and contributions appropriate to the level of the concept of “Common But Differentiated development of parties. Or, in the words of the IPCC, Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities” (CBDR/RC), “outcomes seen as equitable can lead to more effective which was reaffirmed in the PA, and generally through the cooperation” [9]. differentiation between developed and developing 2 This is evidenced by personal accounts of the authors countries in both the UNFCCC and the PA that is applied as well as those of negotiators at the conference, and by throughout both treaties, generally placing more stringent the fact that in the late draft version of the PA text (the obligations and expectations on the former while first “Proposal by the President”), “and equity” is still in affording more flexibility to the latter. For example, the square brackets [15], which indicates that there was no former have obligations to support the latter in the agreement at that stage of the negotiations and that the implementation of their contributions, are expected to inclusion of “equity” in the GST language was an element peak and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions earlier, of the final bargaining over the whole Paris package and and to comply with more demanding reporting and therefore a deliberate inclusion. transparency rules, and so on. The importance of equity in this sense is central to the functioning and, ultimately,

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 5 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 animate the overall ambition mechanism. The assessments with respect to specific GST in principle has the potential to fulfil this normative benchmarks should probably be function, though it will depend on its ultimate relegated to other fora, where proper design whether it can live up to that promise. ownership can be taken of the ethical- normative underpinnings of benchmark During parties’ deliberations leading up to the construction, as discussed further below4). PA as well as after its adoption, it became clear that certain activities and perspectives In this spirit, we will focus here on the on equity are currently out of reach of parties’ question of how the iGST can be the best collective political will (even though they possible role model for the treatment of might not necessarily be inconsistent with equity in the formal GST (i.e., how it could be the text of article 14). For example, the long- “modelling equity”5), and we will indicate standing consensus among parties clearly where current constraints might limit the does not include the assessment of individual application of our suggestions in the formal parties’ contributions, including with respect GST. In our view, the importance of the iGST to equity considerations.3 However, our view and similar initiatives – to model a proper is that such assessment is essential, and assessment of the pledges and actions for the because the iGST (as a process that is benefit of parties (and other observers) – is undertaken by research institutions and other clear, especially given that there will be no non-governmental entities, and not the parties formal negotiations on the GST until the first of the UNFCCC) is not subject to the same GST commences in late 2021 or early 2022. In constraints as the formal GST process under Katowice6, parties decided, however, that they the UNFCCC, it should absolutely venture into will be able to provide “voluntary submissions this territory. It can do so, for example, by […] to inform equity considerations under the illuminating principles for assessing pledges global stocktake” [2]. Thus, the iGST and similar against normatively-derived equity initiatives can provide important frames and benchmarks (though actually conducting such information that parties could utilize when

3 Not having an individual party focus was agreed early are explicitly and transparently normative. Any on in the Paris COP negotiations of the GST (the word undertakings that explicitly or implicitly claim “collective” was in square brackets in the version of the independence and/or neutrality, such as the Independent Paris Agreement Draft forwarded to the COP from the Ad- Global Stocktake, or scholarly undertakings, cannot hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform, but had the effectively and properly take ownership of such ethical- brackets already removed in the first document version normative standpoints. Lahn [19] provides an insightful issued by the COP president). The Katowice CMA discussion of the profound and consequential differences decision on the GST explicitly states that the inputs for the that arise from explicitly taking a normative position (as GST “will consider information at a collective level” (para in the Civil Society Equity Review) as opposed to 31) and that the outcomes “should … have no individual ostensibly presenting results as “apolitical facts” (as in the party focus” (para 14) [2], However, it is worth noting that, example of the “Bali Box” in the IPCC’s Fourth since COP20 in Lima in 2014, there is an explicit Assessment report), even if the underlying analysis is, in expectation that parties explain why they believe their reality and “behind the scenes,” also based on normative contribution is “fair and ambitious.” [16] This expectation positions. (In the interest of transparency, the authors was reiterated at COP21 in Paris and, most recently, in the wish to disclose that they were and remain centrally Katowice CMA decision regarding the “Information to involved in the Civil Society Equity Review, and that their facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of Climate Equity Reference Project serves as its technical nationally determined contributions” [12]. The "fairness and analytical hub.) considerations" are explicitly a source of input for the 5 In this report, we use the verb “model” mainly in the GST, as per the Katowice CMA decision on the GST [2]. sense of the iGST demonstrating, i.e. modelling, how 4 One example of such a potential forum is the Civil certain aspects of the GST could be carried out in an ideal Society Equity Review [7], [17], [18], where a large coalition world. This is different from “modelling equity” in the of civil society organizations have negotiated and agreed sense of using mathematical models to calculate, i.e. upon a specific ethical-normative standpoint from which model, quantitative implications of ethical positions. to undertake equity assessments. The coalition members 6 Winkler offers a good discussion of the equity thus “own” the ethical-normative underpinnings of the dimensions of the Katowice decision on the GST [20]. benchmark construction and the resultant assessments

6 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 preparing such submissions.7 Just as amenable for a wider public” [3] and could thus importantly, by treating equity more serve to support domestic efforts to raise expansively than the GST, the iGST can ambition in those countries. Furthermore, by influence public discourse around ambition highlighting equity concerns in public and equity in civic domains – some of which documents, i/GST exercises could tap into the are exceedingly important – that extend agenda setting function of the GST [3] and beyond the GST’s political and institutional ensure that equity concerns are properly constraints. included in domestic discourses. This also reflects the reality that decisions to increase All this has practical implications. For example, countries’ ambition will not be made at the GST negotiations between Paris and UNFCCC negotiation sessions (where the GST Katowice indicated that a catalogue of will take place) but in national contexts. questions might guide the GST: negotiators began work on such a catalogue, but it was In what follows, we will discuss equity in five ultimately not adopted because they did not related subject areas: 1) scope of the equity agree that this was a priority for their work and challenge in i/GST8 activities, 2) transparency left the formulation of guiding questions to the and standards of equity information and chairs of the SBs instead, who were tasked with benchmarks, 3) climate finance, including presiding over the GST. Insofar as the iGST means of implementation and support, also aims to develop such questions, they 4) intranational equity, and 5) procedural should reflect the equity challenges discussed equity. In the interest of limiting the length of in this text. Furthermore, the GST, and even this paper, we will refrain from providing any more so unofficial initiatives like the iGST, have introductory overview of the GST or iGST the potential of creating materials, including processes, though we will highlight our the collective assessment upon which interpretations of the relevant language in the appraisals of the fairness and ambition of PA text and the Katowice decision on the GST individual countries’ actions and pledges could (including the dynamics of the negotiations be contextualized, and that are “in a format leading to these texts), where relevant.

+ Scope of the Equity Challenge in i/GST Activities

Equity in relation to “scope” is relevant in two considerations are included in these ways, first in terms of equity in the scope of the stocktaking activities. stocktaking activities in general, and second in In the first sense, it is important to recall that terms of the scope of which equity several scope elements are mandated directly

7 There is evidence that at least some parties have such equity considerations to the issue of further or embraced this dynamic. For example, a group of enhanced action and support that need to take place” [21]. developing country UNFCCC negotiators who had been 8 In this paper, when raising points that apply to both involved in the GST negotiations recently released, in their the GST and the iGST, we will refer to both processes personal capacities, a paper on equity in the GST wherein collectively as the “i/GST,” otherwise we will be specific in they conclude that “countries for whom the concept of which of the two we are talking about. The phrases equity in the GST is important should ensure that they are “stocktaking exercises,” “stocktaking efforts” and so on able to provide solid inputs into the GST process. Such refer to both the iGST and the GST as well as any other inputs should highlight not only the equity considerations similar initiatives that might be undertaken by other that they wish to highlight but also the linkage between actors.

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 7 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 in article 14 of the PA, namely “mitigation, the fact that different levels of support enable adaptation and the means of implementation different levels of mitigation activities, while and support” as well as the progress towards treating them together allows, inter alia, a achieving the PA’s long term goals, arguably closer examination of all the ways in which captured in article 2.1 (a-c). Parties clarified increasing support can strengthen mitigation their position in Katowice [2] by explicitly action. Likewise, different levels of mitigation referencing article 2.1 (a-c) as relevant long ambition clearly have an impact on the term goals and characterizing mitigation, adaptive capacity of societies and thus on both adaptation and means of implementation and adaptation need as well as L&D implications, support as “thematic areas” for the GST, while both with profound equity implications, which also explicitly acknowledging that the GST may a separate treatment of these thematic areas take into account the issues areas of Response would fail to recognize. Measures (RM) and Loss and Damage (L&D). The importance of resisting both the primacy Parties also agreed that the thematic areas of mitigation in iGST activities and the siloing should be addressed in a balanced manner, of thematic areas (and the sidelining of L&D including via balanced time allocations. This is and RM) cannot be overstated. Besides having relevant for equity since the inequitable the opportunity to model the best possible GST treatment of these thematic areas has long for parties and publics, an iGST that strives to been lamented by developing country be seen as a legitimately independent initiative negotiators, who argue that mitigation should strongly resist aligning itself with a receives the bulk of attention in the activities position that is closely associated with one of the UNFCCC in contrast to adaptation and group of parties (i.e. developed country parties’ support (as well as RM and L&D), which are emphasis on mitigation to the detriment of very high priorities in developing countries. other issue areas, or even their exclusion in the Increasingly, developing country negotiators case of RM and L&D) as opposed to the agreed have been successful in asserting the more compromise. In the current ongoing phase of equal treatment of the areas, including during the iGST project, some siloing will inevitably the negotiations that led to the Katowice occur due to the way the work of this phase is decision on the GST. organized, with individual iGST partners For the iGST, this means minimally that iGST leading on generating specific outputs under activities as a whole should also strive to separate work items. However, in our view this represent a balance of treatment of the means that the current work should make a thematic areas, including RM and L&D. particular effort to anticipate and highlight links Additionally, the iGST has the opportunity to between those thematic silos and that the next model how the thematic areas can be dealt phase should resist reproducing such a setup. with not only in a balanced by also in a holistic In a recent paper, Klinsky and Winkler forcefully manner,9 by resisting the siloing of thematic argued that any assessment of the equity considerations and instead treating them in implications of any climate policy actions relation to each other, especially with regards would fall short if it does not assess that to equity considerations. The opportunities for policy's implications for mitigation, impacts such work are numerous. For example, treating and adaptation, and loss and damage while mitigation in isolation from climate finance and also being sensitive to the implications for technology transfer would fail to account for

9 “Holistic and comprehensive” are the other two ways means of implementation and support, L&D, and RM are (in addition to “balanced”) in which parties decided in integral and linked parts of a whole and have to be Katowice to treat thematic areas in the GST. The term assessed in relation to, and not in isolation from, each “holistic” was chosen to express the view of the parties other. that championed the term that mitigation, adaptation,

8 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 human development and poverty, among other since legitimate equity concerns, when left principles [4], which supports our cautioning unaddressed, can result in lower ambition, against siloing thematic areas. It also suggests which points to the promise of the i/GST to careful consideration of the equity basis of any elaborate ways in which proper treatment of set of indicators for assessing contributions. those concerns can overcome related barriers.

In the second sense of the scope question, as In addition, there are other important equity full a scope as possible of equity issues issues that ought to be addressed in order to should be included in i/GST exercises. ensure that i/GST activities can fulfill their Recalling that equity is to be considered in a ambition-raising promise. Chief among these cross-cutting manner, in other words, in all of are sustainable development and efforts to the activities of the GST, different elements of eradicate poverty, the primacy of which is the full possible scope of equity considerations explicit in the UNFCCC and has been reiterated apply to different thematic areas and to their by the PA (in its articles 2 and 4). Relatedly, we overlaps. Equity issues arise, both between argue that the issue of intranational equity countries and within them as well as for (which will be discussed in further detail below) specific groups of people, in relation to the is of central importance, since ambition raising agreed-upon thematic issue areas of the GST, can be severely limited if it is seen (or for example, in relation to historical construed) to be implemented at the expense responsibility for emissions when considering of socio-economically disadvantaged strata of the adaptation need of parties, in relation to countries’ societies (or, for that matter, those financial and technological capacity when who are anxious about their socio-economic considering parties’ potential for mitigation, as status and security). It should be noted that well as in relation to means of implementation inequality within countries is an absolutely and support, including for addressing RM and central aspect of the equity challenge, and that, L&D. at the same time, it is very, very difficult to deal with in a multilateral treaty context like the The equity issues in several of these thematic UNFCCC (and that this would probably remain areas have long been studied, though more true even if these negotiations were far work is needed, with the level of understanding healthier than they are today). This, in turn, reflecting the aforementioned imbalance indicates the absolute necessity of addressing between mitigation and other issue areas. For intranational equity in non-formal stocktaking example, with regards to L&D, thorough processes outside the UNFCCC like the iGST. consideration of equity questions is generally lacking. And the same is true when it comes to Furthermore, the PA highlights, inter alia in its of RM, even though “Just Transition” has preamble, a host of additional concerns that emerged over the last few years as an are relevant to reflecting equity for particular important area of concern where inequitable groups of people or perspectives, including impacts can be clearly observed. This is “human rights, the right to health, the rights of particularly the case because fossil carbon indigenous peoples, local communities, migrants, extraction must be curbed no less precipitously children, persons with disabilities and people in than fossil carbon emissions themselves [5]. vulnerable situations and the right to development, Given that many of these equity concerns as well as gender equality, empowerment of women could be addressed through appropriate policy and intergenerational equity”, and “for some, the interventions and support, they should concept of ‘climate justice.’” [1] It is our view constitute a focus of GST activities on RM and that such considerations should inform all L&D. Incidentally, this is an area where equity- activities of the i/GST in order to ensure that related considerations have a direct bearing on they are properly conducted “in the light of the objective of the GST to enhance ambition, equity.”

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 9 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019

To make this second scope-related point in a and Katowice COPs, negotiators of some more general manner: stocktaking efforts developed countries suggested that the “in the should make every effort to include all light of equity” stipulation of article 14 could be aspects of equity that are actually affecting fully met by paying attention to equity concerns policy discourses and policy decisions in “the within countries, such as those related to real world,” which in some cases will be Indigenous rights, human rights, gender, rights specific to specific countries, thematic areas or of migrants, just transition etc., as enumerated particular circumstances, in others it will be in the preamble to the PA. While we agree that fairly generalizable to many or all parties. This a more holistic treatment of equity (i.e. will enable stocktaking efforts to help address including equity within countries and for equity-related barriers to increased ambition or specific groups of people) is desirable in order help highlight opportunities associated with to fulfill the ambition-raising promise of the overcoming such barriers. For example, in the GST, this must not come at the expense of a emerging field of supply-side policy proper treatment of equity between countries. interventions, equity concerns have quickly It is clear that several of these issues are arisen about which countries (or communities) currently out of reach for the formal GST have ethical claims to continue extracting activities since the prevalent interpretation of fossil fuel and which ought to be first to “leave article 14’s stipulation to consider “collective it in the ground.” Such equity concerns are not effort” holds that this stipulation prevents the well developed and, unaddressed, they limit the consideration of individual parties’ potential of supply side approaches [5], [6]. contributions and circumstances10 and that the Many other examples exist. consideration by multilateral processes of The overarching point here is that the “true parties’ internal affairs, such as internal income scope” of equity is very expansive and very distribution or Just Transitions, violate parties’ challenging. As such, it is a practical sovereignty. While we hold that such necessity to limit its scope. However, this interpretations (and concerns about should be done consciously, carefully, and sovereignty) do not literally follow from the text explicitly, while aspiring to the broadest of the PA and the Katowice decision, they do scope possible and proactively reflect the limited collective political will that acknowledging what is missing, in the case of the consensus of the parties can currently the iGST and similar efforts, while actively muster. Hence, some of the issues raised here resisting and interrogating the political have little chance of being fully considered in constraints that parties’ collective political the formal GST, save perhaps for a treatment will has placed upon the official GST process. in party submissions pursuant to paragraph 37 (g) of the Katowice decision11. However, as Finally, it is important to recall that “equity” in stated above, it is our view that this should not the context of the UNFCCC and the PA means be understood as a signal to also ignore these in the first instance considerations of equity issues in contexts like the iGST but, on the between countries. This is apparent from the contrary, as a challenge to the iGST to context in which the concept of equity is demonstrate how they can be treated – in introduced in the texts of these treaties. During the negotiations on the GST between the Paris

10 Though dissenting voices to this interpretation have parties, which in turn implies that at least at some level been raised ever since scholars and analysts first started individual consideration would have to be undertaken. to think about the newly created institution of the GST. For 11 “37. Decides that the sources of input for the global example, Holz and Ngwadla [22] argue that the structure stocktake include: […] (g) Voluntary submissions from of the GST as set up by article 14 clearly implies inputs Parties, including on inputs to inform equity from individual parties and outcomes for individual considerations under the global stocktake…” [2]

10 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 formal negotiations or in national debates – in prevalent interpretation that only aggregate a manner that is both fair and helpful. information should be considered by the formal GST there is an immanent need for For the formal GST, given the expressed needs creative thinking about alternative means of of the parties, a balanced treatment of the differentiating expectations of countries in thematic areas is paramount, which should radically differing circumstances. Part of this include considerations of the interactions may entail devising helpful aggregates that between thematic areas (e.g. relating to the overcome static interpretations of the fact that less overall ambition on mitigation developed/developing countries dichotomy as, leads to more climate change and thus higher for example, it was captured in the Annexes of adaptation needs and higher limits to the UNFCCC.12 Helpful aggregation could, for adaptation, while, vice versa, when parties example, consider the shared circumstances dedicate more of their limited resources to of countries with large fossil fuel exports, of adaptation, they will have fewer resources at countries with agrarian economies, of their disposal to engage in mitigation countries at similar levels of development, of activities). Further, the issue of equity between countries with particular, shared adaptation countries must be included, although given the challenges, and so forth.

+ Transparency and Standards of Equity Information and Benchmarks

Given the prevalent interpretations that the Review” [7] undertook such an exercise, and a “collective effort” language in article 14 consortium of European institutes operating as precludes individual party level assessments, it the “Climate Action Tracker” [8] is also in the is currently unclear how the official GST business of assessing countries’ climate process will be able to use national-level pledges against equity benchmarks. Several information (and if so, which ones) to clarify the other such initiatives exist. progress of individual parties towards The use of equity benchmarks is not only a implementation of their contributions towards “fact on the ground,” it is also in our view an the long-term goals of the PA. As stated above, important, useful and desirable tool for en- aggregation of parties in groups other than couraging discourse, mutual understanding, developed vs. developing countries may help and, ultimately, enhanced ambition, for overcome this limitation. example by demonstrating in which area (e.g. The availability of such information could be mitigation, adaptation, or support), and at helpful, because it is clear that there will be what scale, additional ambition can fairly be initiatives that will assess the contributions of expected and how countries’ contributions parties and groups of parties against specific compare to each other in light of specific normative benchmarks, including benchmarks benchmarks. Importantly, equity assessments that are derived, or purport to be derived, from against normative benchmarks also offer very specific equity positions. For example, in the useful tools for national campaigns for higher lead up to the Paris climate summit and ambition. annually since, a global “Civil Society Equity

12 Though the Annexes still have important meaning and when it comes to the explicit finance obligations of Annex functions, including in relation to the GST, for example II parties.

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 11 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019

However, in order to be widely seen as technology, assumptions about climate legitimate, equity benchmarking should impacts, including discounting, etc. [4]) that are observe some minimal standards with regard implied in such a selection. And of course, it to their construction and transparency. The also includes the selection of the fairness overarching point here is that the derivation principles that are used to derive national of equity benchmarks is always and benchmarks from global pathways (or carbon necessarily a normative exercise and that budgets). The ethical positions that underpin presenting any equity benchmarking exercise the selection must be clear to the audience, as as value-neutral is patently misleading. From must be the implications of a particular this it follows that initiatives that strive, for selection over alternatives. very good reasons, to present themselves as While not only relevant there, these principles value-neutral research or research-aggrega- matter in particular when it comes to the kind tion initiatives, like the iGST, ought to refrain of equity assessment that seeks to evaluate from engaging in equity benchmarking countries contributions (i.e., chiefly, their NDCs, proper, though discussion of standards and but also their finance contributions) in fair principles of such benchmarking could be a shares terms. The bottom line is that equity very useful contribution to further the models that claim to evaluate the fairness or understanding of equity assessment, as can unfairness of parties’ contributions must be the provision of information and data relating ethically transparent, so that they themselves to equity consequences of national can be evaluated, specifically with regards to contributions. For example, and related to the any implicit or even explicit biases, and how discussion on scope above, iGST participants these effect the final assessment results that could agree that any equity assessments of the models are reporting. mitigation pledges that only consider a country’s domestic mitigation and fail to This has special importance for assessments consider the provision (or receipt) of means of that are derived from aggregations or implementation for mitigation are defective statistical syntheses of multiple normative due to their incompleteness. benchmarks, and that are presented as being representative of the universe of equity It further follows, that audiences for the results perspectives in an inclusive and exhaustive of benchmarking exercises must be able to way. The key point here is that this is not and understand and decide whether or not they cannot be a strictly technical process, agree with the normative positions taken in because it inherently entails normative constructing the benchmarks, in order to choices, and thus any such effort must be assess whether or not they can accept the extremely transparent. The path from the findings of the benchmarking. In order to make underlying ethical positions of the individual these determinations, users must be as equity perspectives to the ultimate transparently and completely as possible assessment vis-à-vis the synthesized informed about all the ethically-informed benchmarks must be easily traceable, and if decisions that went into the construction of the other positions would have led to other benchmark. For example, for mitigation assessments, this too must be clear. benchmarks this includes the selection of the mitigation pathway and the trade-offs between It must be particularly clear which ethical near-term ambition and mid to long-term risks positions are being selected for representation (e.g. with regards to the impacts of and which are being excluded, why they are temperature overshoots, negative emissions being excluded and what the implications of assumptions, economic and population this exclusion are. This is true even if the growth assumptions, assumptions about reasons that salient ethical positions are

12 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 excluded are methodological or practical, for based benchmarks could not be considered example because no quantified data reflecting equitable, or that for the proper assessment of these ethical positions have been calculated countries’ mitigation effort, the sum of their and/or published. It is worth noting that the domestic mitigation and the mitigation impact IPCC, in the Fifth Assessment Report [9], noted of their climate finance contribution should be several equity dimensions that are relevant for considered in total. equity assessment of NDCs but have not yet Unavoidably, the many technical, analytical, been expressed via quantified models. These or taxonomic choices made in developing any include the different kind of responsibility synthesized equity benchmark entail associated with production- versus judgements that themselves are normative consumption-based or with survival versus (which equity perspectives are included, luxury emissions, egalitarianism versus which are excluded, how are equity prioritarianism, regressive versus progressive perspectives represented quantitatively, distribution of the costs (and benefits) of what specific values are chosen for free climate action, and the ethical primacy of the parameters, etc.). These judgements, eradication of poverty and the associated moreover, are consequential, and importance of the right to development. In substantively affect results. For these these cases, indications should be provided reasons, no quantitative assessment relative with regards to how the inclusion of such to equity benchmarks can claim to be positions would have altered the assessment. “neutral” or “objective.” All that is possible to Also, the specific approach for aggregating claim is transparency. across benchmarks must be clear, along with its implications relative to other options. Expressed in a more general form, all approaches – political, policy, quantitative, etc. Such a degree of transparency is quite – that make equity claims about the shared demanding, and yet it is indispensable. Without climate response, must be constructed and it, the meaning of the consequent judgments communicated in ways that allow their ethical cannot be clear. Its goal is a situation in which and moral presuppositions to be clearly the logic of the ethical-political positions identified and interrogated, so that is becomes represented by specific benchmarks, as easy to either agree with them or dismiss them. opposed to other possible benchmarks, is clearly visible, so that it too can be evaluated Importantly, this principle does not only apply against the demands of the climate transition, to assessment efforts that seek to evaluate which will be severe. parties’ mitigation contributions against normatively-derived benchmarks, but also As we mentioned above, unofficial stocktaking extends to other thematic areas as well. Here, exercises could advance the discourse on it is important to recall our earlier cautioning benchmarking by articulating principles for against siloing thematic areas and failing to normatively-based benchmark setting. Besides take interactions between areas into proper the importance of full transparency, it is account. For example, an initiative that is imaginable that such stocktaking undertakings assessing mitigation contributions against could also succeed in facilitating open and equity benchmarks cannot be properly productive discourses that result, in the right scrutinized without information on the context, in increased consensus with regards assumptions about financial and other support to the outer boundaries of a defensible range of (to be provided or received) that are made by views with regards to which normative benchmarks can be considered to constitute “equity.” For example, such a consensus could include agreement that any “grandfathering-“

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 13 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 the initiative.13 Nor can it be assessed properly why they consider their contributions to be fair unless the selected benchmarks also are (and ambitious) as tasked to do by the Lima meaningful measures of both mitigation and COP decision (and reiterated in Paris and support. Likewise, it is impossible to properly since). Winkler et al. found that virtually all assess adaptation without transparency and parties failed against even low standards of clarity about assumptions on the level of transparency and coherence in this regard, mitigation, or support and climate finance though they also found that there was some available for adaptation activities. convergence around a number of indicators that parties used to speak to the question of The role of the iGST and associated activities fairness and ambition [11]. The Katowice in modeling clarity and transparency in regard decision on information to facilitate clarity, to the ethical and moral underpinnings and transparency and understanding of NDCs technical, economic and political assumptions (Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1) [12] also fails to of equity-related information is also very provide useful guidance to parties in this important. While self-differentiation in regard. Hence, unofficial, independent countries' NDCs broadly reflects the subtle stocktaking such as the iGST can help differentiation in the PA towards developing assemble relevant information, and provides a countries and LDCs and SIDS in particular reservoir of relevant data on which equity when it comes to mitigation and adaptation benchmarking exercises can draw, and can responsibilities [10], it is clear from the first serve the role of modeling the type of round of NDC submissions that parties have transparency, clarity and understanding that not been very successful in clearly and parties ought to apply to their NDCs. transparently explaining the reasoning behind

+ Climate Finance and Support

The Katowice decision on the GST resolved the scope while also reiterating that article 14, tension between interpretations of article 14 when talking about “means of implementation that the finance-related topics of the GST and support” was indeed referring to climate would mainly evolve around making financial finance, technology transfer and capacity flows consistent with a low-emissions and building provided by developed country parties climate-resilient development pathway14 on (and others who have voluntarily chosen to do one hand and interpretations that sought to so) in the traditional understanding first highlight “traditional” understanding of climate established in the UNFCCC itself (articles 4.3- finance and broader support, e.g. in the sense 4.5) of articles 9, 10 and 11 of the PA. The Katowice It is self-evident that efforts to make financial decision (decision 19/CMA.1, paragraph 6 (b)) flows consistent with low greenhouse gas embraces both interpretations and thus clearly emissions and climate-resilient development brings finance flows consistency into the GST

13 For example, questions such as whether poorer 14 This interpretation holds that shifting financial flows countries’ mitigation contributions are assessed under is a long-term goal of the PA (pursuant to article 2.1 (c)) the assumption that they will receive support to and since the mandate of the GST is to assess progress implement them or not; or whether wealthier countries’ towards the long-term goals, the other relevant phrase of contributions are only considered to consist of their article 14 – “considering … means of implementation and domestic effort or if they must necessarily be assessed support” – should also be understood mainly in the together with the mitigation that their support enables in context of article 2.1 (c) as opposed to, for example, other countries, or whether contributions are thought to article 9 on climate finance or article 10 on technology include international offsets, etc. transfer.

14 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 touch on a host of equity questions, both account the support provided by developed between countries and within them, that arise countries and received by developing when large-scale financial flows shift away countries, it is impossible to assess whether from certain economic activities, regions, countries’ overall contributions to mitigation countries, or socio-economic groups and are appropriately fair and ambitious.17 The towards others. Nonetheless, the equity analogue applies to adaptation. This applies at considerations of shifting financial flows will both the individual country level and in the not be discussed here; we will instead focus on aggregate. Likewise, at both individual and the “traditional” understanding of means of aggregate levels, any assessment that is based implementation and support as climate on criteria that are focused on mitigation and finance, capacity building and technology does not consider the support as part of a transfer (collectively, in this report, “support”) country’s overall contribution would be utterly provided by developed countries to developing incomplete. Incidentally, this also applies to countries.15 This is purely for practical reasons globally aggregated assessments: if support is since a proper treatment of the equity issues not taken into account, an assessment of the relevant to shifting financial flows is a major global collective effort in, for example, undertaking warranting a dedicated report and mitigation would risk missing important equity- is beyond the scope of the present paper. It is related barriers and opportunities to higher nonetheless our view that consistency of ambition. financial flows is a centrally important issue More bluntly, many equity-related that should play a major role in the i/GST since considerations regarding support come back it is inconceivable to meet the Paris Agreement to the central observation that “the money's in goals as long as hundreds of billions or trillions the wrong place. Even if countries are trying to of dollars in investment are directed to new do as much as they can, many simply can't do fossil fuel infrastructure.16 enough without real support.” [13] This applies Climate finance and support are in and of to both mitigation, because much of the themselves central to equity and ambition. This current and future mitigation potential lies in is one of the reasons we argued earlier against countries with smaller financial and siloing of thematic areas: for example, with technological capacity to implement this regards to mitigation, without taking into potential,18 as well as in adaptation, where the

15 While we acknowledge that article 9.2 of the PA also scale. This observation would be impossible without encourages “other Parties” to provide support, we will taking the support provided into account. nonetheless continue to use the phrase “developed 18 This observation also suggests that carbon markets countries” to refer to the parties providing support, in the and cooperative approaches under Article 6 of the PA are interest of simplicity and because existing financial potentially relevant to this issue. Article 6 and carbon commitments like the $100bn goal explicitly refer to trading in general is subject to a whole host of other developed countries. Likewise, we will use “support” to equity-related considerations, deserving their own encompass all of climate finance, capacity building and dedicated paper and thus go beyond the scope of the technology transfer. present publication. Judging from the CDM and voluntary 16 A dedicated paper on issues related to climate finance carbon market experiences, such equity-related issue and financial flows is available in this discussion series, would include human-rights issues such as displacement however, it treats equity considerations only in a cursory of traditional communities from land sought for fashion [23]. mitigation projects (e.g. [24]), the biased distribution of 17 For example, if a developed country undertook a project activities across host countries, the low or absent domestic emissions reduction of a certain scale and sustainable development benefit of projects, and the supported additional reductions in other countries, say, at issuance of reduction credits not actually reflecting a scale equivalent to their domestic efforts, the total emissions reductions, to name a few of the most contribution to mitigation of that country would be larger pertinent issues. Additionally, where they act as than that of a country that only undertook the domestic mechanisms for offsetting, carbon markets risks action of the same scale, or even or a somewhat larger lowering overall ambition, while other potential functions of Article 6 mechanisms, including as mechanisms for

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 15 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 largest adaptation need is not well matched Hence, two obvious equity considerations are with the capacity to meet that need (similar related to equitable effort sharing of the observations can be made about L&D and, provision of support on one hand (including the depending on the case, RM). Hence, this central question which countries should share in this observation, and its implications, deserves provision of support)21,22, and the adequacy of some considered attention. this support on the other hand. Additionally, on the receiving side, an additional question arises Equity principles regarding the provision of about whether support is fairly distributed support are well established under the among recipient countries, or even with UNFCCC. Article 4.3 of the UNFCCC explicitly regards to specific sub-groups within these recognizes “the importance of appropriate countries. In this context, recall the provisions burden sharing among the developed country of the PA and the UNFCCC that specifically parties” with regards to the provision of climate highlight, for example the circumstances and finance [14], which is implicitly reaffirmed by needs of parties “that are particularly the PA through its recognition (in article 9.1) of vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate the obligations with regards to finance of change,” such as least developed countries and developed countries under the Convention. small island developing states, indicating that The Convention, in article 4.3, establishes there ought to be recognition of specific further important equity principles by explicitly circumstances in the context of the provision recognizing “the need for adequacy and of support. predictability in the flow of funds” and by It is important to note, though, that these explicitly setting the expectation that questions cannot be treated in isolation. For “adequacy” of funds would refer to the “agreed example, if contributor countries were to full incremental costs”19 of undertaking climate perfectly fairly share (according to some action. Further, article 4.3 of the Convention is normative benchmark) the effort of providing a clear that provision of climate finance by certain amount of support, but if that amount developed countries is a commitment20 (as falls far below the level of support required by opposed to a voluntary pledge). developing countries for adequate levels of climate action, equity concerns about the provision of support would remain. Specifically, results-based climate finance, could overcome this UNFCCC and the PA (i.e. developed countries), can fairly potential limitation. be expected to contribute to climate finance and at what 19 In the determination of the “incremental costs,” for level. For one possible way of answering this question via example for mitigation, it would be appropriate to take a a dynamic (i.e. responsive to countries’ changing realistic approximation of any co-benefits of the activities circumstances over time) effort-sharing regime, into account. As such, it is plausible that in some cases, specifically, our Climate Equity Reference framework, see the incremental costs may be zero or negative. See below [25], which analyses which countries could be considered for a more detailed discussion of this matter. support providers or recipients, respectively, based on a number of different methodological assumptions (e.g. 20 Article 4 is titled “commitments” and article 4.3 with regards to baselines) and specific ethical-normative specifically uses the “shall” verb to convey legal positions. bindingness of the provision of climate finance commitment. 22 Note that the availability of forward-looking information on provision and mobilization of finance is 21 Importantly, the Paris Agreement introduces the very limited. Specifically, developed countries have long notion that it is not just developed countries that are resisted including such information in their NDCs and obliged to provide financial resources, but that “other elsewhere. The biennial reports of the Standing parties” are also, on a voluntary basis, encouraged to do Committee on Finance include some forward-looking so (Article 9.2 Paris Agreement). While expressed in the information but there is nonetheless a major data issue. text of the PA as a fairly weak expectation (“encourage” For a more thorough discussion of these limitations, see and “voluntarily”), from an equity perspective this also the dedicated finance paper in this discussion paper provision importantly raises the question which countries, series [23]. in addition to those already obliged to do so by the

16 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 since COP15 in 2009, parties have focussed opportunity to highlight the need to resist their attention on developed countries’ siloing thematic areas: Since the level of collective mobilization goal of $100bn annually ambition described in the NDCs is not by 2020, a goal which was reiterated in the sufficient to achieve the PA long term goals (as, Paris COP decision that adopted the PA applied for example, recognized explicitly in the Paris as an annual goal to the 2020 to 2025 period decision in the case of mitigation; paragraph as well, but without undertaking any a priori 17, decision 1/CP.21 [1]), the “true” need for equity assessment as to whether this goal is support to implement measures at the sufficient in scale relative to the needs for necessary level of ambition would exceed that support required by developing countries. expressed in the NDCs. As such, any exercise to determine the support need would need to Equitable effort sharing with regards to the be informed by and be in conversation with provision of this finance goal should certainly activities designed to determine the required fall within the scope of i/GST assessments. level of ambition in mitigation, adaptation and However, it would fall short of the full so forth. consideration of relevant equity considerations if the adequacy (and thus, equitability) of the Another reason why such needs assessments goal level itself were not also scrutinized from are an important function of stocktaking an equity point of view. This question could be exercises is the agreement by parties in the tackled from both the provision side (e.g., one Paris decision to set a new collective could interrogate the question whether the mobilization goal for climate finance for the combined effort of mitigation and provision of post 2025 period (paragraph 54, decision support by developed countries is 1/CP.21 [1]). Outcomes of the GST and/or commensurate with their overall fair share of a unofficial stocktaking exercises could serve as global effort) as well as from the needs side, important pieces of input into this goal where one could interrogate whether the goal setting.24 In this context, the needs (be it the narrow $100bn goal or a broader goal determinations that the Standing Committee of shifting financial flows) is actually on Finance (SCF) is tasked to carry out commensurate with the overall need for periodically, with the first of these support (and investments) for adaptation and determinations to be published by COP26 in mitigation by developing countries. 2020, can serve as important pieces of input. However, the limitations of the SCF’s work in In the latter case, a stocktaking exercise could, this area suggests that unofficial stocktaking for example, utilize the information provided by exercises could provide an important service developing countries in their NDCs about the by addressing these issues, which are level of finance need and/or support they require to fully implement the measures outlined in their NDCs.23 This is, again, a good

23 To be sure, the information about financial needs in 24 Article 14 clearly sets the GST up as a relevant piece NDCs cannot always be taken at face value. For example, of input for this activity when it states that “the outcome parties utilized different methodologies for estimating of the GST shall inform Parties in updating and enhancing those needs, parties make (but often don’t disclose) … their … support.” [1]. Basing the goal setting for the post- different assumption about how much of that need would 2025 finance mobilization goal on a GST outcome that be required from developed countries’ support considered the finance needs of developing countries contribution vs. from other sources. Nonetheless, and would be a large improvement over the way in which the especially at the aggregate, NDCs can provide useful $100bn goal was derived, which was more or less insights. For example, Pauw et al. interpolate that the arbitrarily chosen and first announced by developed support requirements to implement the conditional countries during the Copenhagen COP in 2009, without components of NDCs (mitigation as well as adaptation) having any meaningful relationship to the needs it is in the 2021-2030 may imply an “indicative total support intended to address. requirement of,” on average, $330 billion annually [26].

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 17 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 generally under-researched.25 Such needs interventions of developed countries be assessments, done correctly, could provide a counted towards developed countries’ very detailed look at the support needs broken fulfilment of their finance obligations or down along various dimensions, for example, towards developing countries efforts to by thematic area (i.e. support for mitigation, implement their pledged measures?27 As adaptation, L&D), by nature of support (climate another example, is it appropriate for, say finance, technology transfer, capacity building), developed country private enterprises, enabled by source (public vs private, contributor vs. by their governments’ intervention, to invest in recipient country) or type of support (e.g. in adaptation projects in developing countries, some cases only grants are appropriate while charging user fees and making a profit off in others a loan guarantee or equity may be these projects, and to count this arrangement sufficient) or stage of development of the (ultimately funded by the fee-payers of the recipient country (e.g., emerging economies, developing country) toward the developed LDCs, SIDS, etc.). Furthermore, keeping the countries’ obligations? Talanoa question of “how do we get there” in Assessments of support needs of developing mind, both official and unofficial stocktaking countries also should take so-called co- exercises could focus on the questions of how benefits into account. This issue mainly arises to raise the funds necessary to cover those in regards to mitigation activities where, identified needs (again, differentiated by type besides emissions reductions, mitigation of support), including from developed country measures might also yield important other government sources, private sources, as well benefits (co-benefits), such as increased as innovative financing that bypasses energy access, reduced air or water pollution, governmental processes.26 reduced congestion, lower energy costs and so Further, recall that developed countries forth. In fact, in some cases, co-benefits might consider the $100bn goal to refer to both public be large enough to reduce the cost of finance provided as well as private finance mitigation activities to zero, or net-negative (if mobilized by public intervention (as explicitly the value of the co-benefits matches or stated, for example, in decision 1/CP.16) as exceeds the cost of the action), thus potentially well as their interpretation (confirmed by eliminating the need for support. For example, parties in the Katowice decision on the GST) energy efficiency measures often save more in that the question of shifting of financial flows energy costs over a certain period than the (article 2.1 (c) of the PA) is within the scope of initial investment, thus resulting in net savings. the GST. In this context, a host of equity However, it is equally important that the questions arises that are related to the nature effect of co-benefits are not overstated. and source of the private finance thus Clearly, barriers to mitigation activities with mobilized or shifted. For example, should zero or net-negative costs still exists, private finance that is mobilized from otherwise they would have been implemented developing countries’ private entities by already. Overcoming those barriers could still

25 For further details, see the climate finance paper in this Decarbistan with substantial assistance, say worth 20% discussion paper series [23]. of the total project costs, from grants publicly funded by 26 There are many such proposals, including financial a developed country, Donorland. Imagine further that the transaction taxes, fossil fuel extraction levies, special remaining 80% of the investments coming from the drawing rights etc. One example from the UNFCCC privately owned Decarbistani utility company, context is the share of proceeds from the CDM under the DecaPower, i.e. representing private capital arguably Kyoto Protocol, which directly. generates funds for the leveraged by Donorland’s grant. Do the 80% count Adaptation Fund. towards Donorland’s climate finance totals? Would it make a difference if DecaPower was not a private entity 27 Imagine, for example, a large concentrated solar but publicly owned by the Decarbistani government? power plant built in the fictional developing county

18 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 imply support needs, despite nominally scale and rapid mitigation entails, because of negative costs of the measure. This could the socio-economic inertia (e.g., with. regards involve difficulties in accessing investment to stranded assets, displaced workers, etc.). capital at rates that allow the value of the co- Such a focus on a “net benefits” notion that benefits outweigh the cost of the mitigation sets benefits against costs also risks may measure to make the measure overall net- also fail to take important equity negative28 (pointing toward loan guarantees considerations into account when those from developed country governments or MDBs benefits and costs might be occurring to as possible mean of support to enable access different people, in different regions or to lower cost. Other barriers could include countries, and even different generations. technological or capacity constraints etc. The However, as stated above, a thorough emphasis on net benefits that is often the treatment of these issues is beyond the scope focus of discussions of co-benefits risks to of the present paper. overlook various types of disruption that large-

+ Intranational Equity

Another important element of equity in climate climate measures, rather than exacerbated or action is the myriad of issues that can be ignored. summarized as “intranational equity.” This Stocktaking exercises can make important frame recognizes that while inequality between contributions by highlighting the risks that countries is critical in the context of ensuring failure to attend to salient inequalities can that the response to the climate crisis is pose to the implementation of climate ambitious and equitable, inequalities within measures as well as the opportunities countries also play very important roles. (including co-benefits) that can be unlocked Equity arguments (imagined and real) are being by paying proper attention to these dynamics. fielded by the opponents of climate ambition in Given the concerns (mentioned above) of order to slow or halt progress on climate many parties that consideration of their action. These arguments often point to the intranational circumstances in an international (imagined, potential, or real) negative impacts process could impede their sovereignty, it is that climate policy measures have or might unlikely that these topic areas will receive have on economically disadvantaged groups much consideration in the GST (save, perhaps, and individuals, or on groups and individuals for some attention to Just Transitions under who experience anxieties about their economic the umbrella of RM). This circumstance makes status or economic security. If measures it vital that they are instead taken up by intended to transition economies to low or zero unofficial stocktaking initiatives such as the carbon economies are to gain support among iGST. populations the world over, the inequalities that provide fertile ground for the purported equity Such stocktaking could, for example, assess concerns of the detractors must be taken the ways that the implementation of climate seriously and explicitly and visibly addressed in policies may have affected socio-economically disadvantaged groups, how any negative

28 For example, at the time of this writing, German 10- whose co-benefits would make them net-negative cost in year government bonds have a yield of -0.7%, while Germany, could very plausibly remain positive-cost in Uganda's are over 15%. The difference between these Uganda. borrowing costs suggests that many mitigation activities

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 19 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 impacts could have been avoided, or how they its importance. In our view, it is impossible to have been avoided in other policy situations, imagine the type of high cooperation world and so on. This could include assessing that’s necessary to successfully address the distributive implications of climate policies, climate crisis in a context of “America first,” such as carbon pricing, or questions of energy “Brazil first,” Philippines first,” and so on. A access due to rising energy prices as a result recent very important example of the dangers of the elimination of fossil fuel subsidy or here is the experiences with the gilets jaunes deployment of renewable energy, or questions protests in France, who disrupted domestic around environmental racism or classism in climate policy implementation on the basis of siting, for example, large scale renewable issues of inequity. energy projects. Importantly, such questions Stocktaking exercises, in particular unofficial also arise with regards to the distribution of ones that are not burdened by the concerns (co-)benefits of climate action and about sovereignty of parties that places limits opportunities associated with it. For example, on the official GST, should strive to highlight structural barriers might exist that allow only the myriad barriers that pervasive inequality in certain strata of societies benefit from energy societies around the world can place before efficiency incentive programmes, e.g. due to climate ambition and likewise illuminate ways access to financing or due to ownership in which overcoming these barriers can lead to structures of housing. Or likewise employment more ambitious and more just responses to or other economic opportunities resulting from the climate crisis. This is one of the ways in climate action might be captured by certain which equity truly is the gateway to ambition – socio-economic groups to the detriment of if effort, costs, as well as opportunities and others. Climate policy can be designed to benefits of climate action are not fairly shared More generally, questions relating to among the nations of this planet, and among intranational inequality arise across all the people within those nations, it is hard to thematic areas, not just with regards to imagine how the extremely challenging disproportionally bearing the impact and costs ambition agreed to in the Paris Agreement can of mitigation measures, or inequitable be accomplished. distribution of the benefits and opportunities Even in a formal sense, and whether or not associated with it, but also with regards to, for these dimensions of equity are taken up in the example, the distribution of risk reduction as a official GST, it is worth noting that they do arise result of adaptation efforts (e.g. funds might be in the PA, specifically in the preambular text. prioritized to reduce the risk for the better-off For example, there are the clauses recognizing rather than the most at-risk, or user-paid the need to “respect, promote and consider adaptation measures might be beyond the their respective obligations on human rights, reach of the poor), and certainly the inequal the right to health, the rights of indigenous distribution of climate impacts and loss and peoples, local communities, migrants, children, damage within the socio-economic strata of persons with disabilities and people in societies. vulnerable situations and the right to This issue area is large and complex but the development, as well as gender equality, rise of (often right-wing) economic nationalism empowerment of women and in recent years around the world, – which is intergenerational equity”. Likewise there are typically associated with resistance to or clauses having to do with “public participation, rejection of climate action (and often of climate public access to information and cooperation science itself) and that is at least to a large part at all levels,” the “fundamental priority of fuelled by (real or perceived) inequality issues safeguarding food security” (which arises in and associated fears and anxieties – illustrates the context of land-based mitigation and

20 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019 negative emissions), and “imperatives of a just human rights, the right to health, the rights of transition of the workforce,” and “obligations on indigenous peoples” [1].

+ Procedural Equity in Stocktaking Activities

During the negotiations on the GST between (potential) participants from developing the Paris and Katowice COPs, some parties countries. In the case of the official GST, as has highlighted the importance of procedural been emphasized by several parties during the equity for the GST. While in this case the negotiations leading to the Katowice COP interventions appeared to represent a cynical decisions on the GST, and has been codified in attempt to suggest that attention to procedural that decision, this does not only include equity alone, at the exclusion of all other developing countries’ government delegations, dimensions of equity, could serve to comply but also observer organizations and research with the “in the light of equity” stipulation of institutes from those countries. Importantly, article 14, attention to procedural equity this does not only mean to ensure support to nonetheless has clear merits. those participants to enable their presence at relevant gatherings, but it may also mean Some aspects of procedural equity have requiring more substantial support to enable already been discussed above under “scope,” them to engage with the processes and issues, namely the equitable treatment of all thematic e.g. to produce materials as inputs, outside of areas, but other aspects also warrant attention. those gatherings. Procedural equity is important for both the official GST as well as other stocktaking The importance of this becomes apparent exercises since without it the legitimacy of when considering the structure of the GST, these efforts can be severely undermined and comprising of input phase, technical with it the degree to which their outcomes are consideration, and political phase: if the embraced by decision makers and thus, perspectives of certain groups or countries are ultimately, their effectiveness as ambition- not reflected in the inputs submitted or raising tools. gathered during the input phase, for example because of capacity and resource constraints In the most general terms, procedural equity is to produce relevant materials, language understood to refer to the transparency and barriers, information technology limitations, fairness of the processes by which results are etc., then the technical consideration and achieved. More equitable processes lead to political phases won’t be able to consider those more equitable results, in part because of the perspectives either, even though the groups or perception of fairness enjoyed by participants countries might be able to engage in those in these processes. In additional to balanced phases. For example, a cursory survey of the treatment of thematic areas, in the case of inputs to the Talanoa Dialogue reveals that stocktaking exercises, procedural equity might Northern research institutes and civil society be best served by an attention to ensuring organizations are substantially equitable access for different groups, as well overrepresented in the submissions to the as the equitable treatment of their respective Talanoa Dialogue, presumably owing at least in inputs and perspectives. part to a shortfall in capacity and resources With regards to access, the i/GST should among southern organizations to produce actively strive to address and overcome such documents. barriers to full and meaningful participation by

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 21 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019

For unofficial stocktaking exercises, this realistic about the difficulties that must be means that the full and meaningful overcome to do them justice. Still, every involvement of southern participants is of effort should be made to include and support utmost importance, particularly if these meaningful participation by a critical mass of initiatives intend their analyses and outputs southern analysts. It is important to highlight to be taken as legitimate expressions of a that this would require support for building global collaboration. This has implications. institutions and networks over a long period of time to address shortcomings in First of all, southern participants will in many institutional capacity in think tanks and cases require financial support to engage in research institutes in developing countries. the initiative’s activities in any meaningful All too often, ostensibly global initiatives way. Often more sustained support will be include only tokenistic involvement from needed, so that the capacity to effectively overburdened developing country analysts collaborate can develop, research relation- who cannot effectively assert their interests ships can be established, and approaches or perspectives, save for the cases in which and priorities clarified. Stocktaking initiatives these unproblematically dovetail with those that aim to be globally representative should of more well-resourced northern participants. ensure that southern perspectives are engaged This must be avoided if any potential in deliberations (advisory boards, steering unofficial stocktaking exercise is to win real committees and such) and project design from legitimacy. their very start. This is crucial in order to avoid their involvement becoming tokenistic and in There is more to be said about the problems order to put in place structures, processes, and here, but our specific caution is that such agendas that allow for an equitable treatment initiatives should be careful not to assert a of all perspectives. This is also important since, universality that they cannot legitimately as mentioned, one of the potential functions of claim. Acknowledging that, they should take such stocktaking initiatives is to "model" care to inflect all of their products with a inclusive and democratic stocktaking strong sense of the developmental exercises to parties, and this very much challenges posed by the climate crisis, in a includes modelling procedural equity. manner that is frank about their own Additionally, it is important to stress that any limitations, for example with regards to their unofficial stocktaking exercise that limited geographical scope. Ideally, such successfully (and visibly) ensures the full and stocktaking initiatives would also make meaningful participation of southern investments designed to facilitate perspectives in its own activities could also meaningful collaboration in the future, for have a direct positive impact on the official example, by supporting the development of GST since those same voices would be better flexible analytic tools that can be easily prepared to participate in the official GST as customized by southern analysists who wish well. to develop their own approaches to stocktaking, for example with regards to NDC Admittedly, this is a demanding set of assessment and quantification, thus lowering conditions and stipulations, and one must be the barriers for southern participation.

22 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019

+ Summary

The explicit mandate to conduct the GST “in the (and while our treatment above is also light of equity” represents an opportunity to necessarily incomplete), there are a few areas maximize the ambition raising potential and on which, in our view, the iGST should focus its promise of the GST as well as strengthen its efforts, in terms of conducting its business “in overall legitimacy and the legitimacy and the light of equity:”29 fairness of the overall response to the climate ˜ Balance in scope of thematic areas, challenge, and consequently its adequacy. including taking linkages and This is because, in addition to equity being a interdependencies between thematic “good” in and of itself, there are important areas into proper account; instrumental dynamics that potentially make ˜ Highlighting principles that equity equity a strong enabler of ambition. These assessments of individual countries’ include: 1) climate change is a commons contributions (NDCs, support provided problem where only if actors see others striving etc.) should apply. Such principles must towards their fair share will they do likewise, include ethical transparency, attention to 2) the “the money is in the wrong place” structural biases, and proactive problem; that is, any truly ambitious transition acknowledgement of weaknesses and will demand substantial amounts of limitations in such a way that users can international support, for the simple reason effectively scrutinize these initiatives. that much of the world's mitigation potential Moreover, efforts should not assert claims and adaptation need is located in countries and to objectivity or neutrality in undertakings communities that do not have the money to that are by their nature, normative; address them, or that have pressing national economic and development needs that in ˜ Particular emphasis on climate finance, many cases take priority to investing in a means of implementation and support, global-scale challenge, and 3) extreme and shifting financial flows, including the inequality is a social poison the world over and equity challenges implied in both provision can be (and has been) exploited by opponents and receipt, and including the adequacy of of climate action to stall or stop climate policy. finance mobilization goals vis-à-vis actual support needs; Equity in the i/GST is a sprawling and complex issue, which was correctly recognized by ˜ Consideration of intranational equity and parties in Katowice when they characterized it inequality in the iGST, including the (real, as “cross-cutting,” i.e. relevant for and perceived and potential) impacts of implicated in all aspects of the GST, however, ambitious climate action on socio- parties failed to fully operationalize how equity economically disadvantaged groups, and would precisely be treated in the GST, which the role of inequality as a barrier to gives an important opportunity to the iGST and ambitious climate action; similar unofficial processes to model this for the parties. ˜ Procedural equity with particular emphasis on actively enabling the full and While we have discussed many aspects of equity in the i/GST and stocktaking in general

29 It is worth repeating that some of these areas are This has been highlighted, where applicable, in the text likely currently out of the realm of the possible for the above. official GST, given the collective political will of the parties.

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 23 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019

meaningful involvement of perspectives balanced treatment of thematic areas from developing countries. (mitigation, adaptation, means of implementation and support as well as RM Within these broad areas, there are some and L&D). Given the structure of the i/GST, specific elements that are worth highlighting. it is important that this equitable and ˜ The equity provisions of the GST were balanced treatment is embraced across all hard-won and must be defended. Any GST phases of the i/GST, from the input phase, that does not take equity into proper to the technical consideration to political account will be a glaring violation of the phases and the generation of outputs; provisions of article 14.1. Further, it will ˜ As full a scope as possible of equity issues damage the efficacy of the ambition should be included in i/GST exercises; mechanism and thus of the Paris ideal stocktaking efforts would include all Agreement as a whole. aspects of equity that are actually ˜ Certain activities and lines of inquiry are affecting policy discourses and policy currently beyond the political will of the decisions in “the real world;” parties, particularly in the context of the ˜ From this it follows that that the “true official GST. To the degree that these scope” of equity is extremely expansive activities could further the project of and that there is a practical necessity to stocktaking in the service of enhanced limit its scope. However, this should be ambition and equity, the iGST should done consciously, carefully, and explicitly, embrace them and seek to demonstrate while aspiring to the broadest scope how they can be put to maximum effect. possible and proactively acknowledging ˜ One area that is out of reach of the formal what is missing; GST is the equity assessment of individual ˜ The proper treatment of finance and other parties’ pledges and actions. Such means of implementation and support is assessments by their nature depend on central to any stocktaking exercise since benchmarks and, as discussed above, no without taking them into proper account, it benchmark, including those derived is impossible to assess whether through synthesis, can claim objectivity or contributions to mitigation or adaptation neutrality because derivation of equity are appropriately fair and ambitious; benchmarks is always and necessarily normative. Given this, it is important that ˜ In the context of means of implementation benchmarking exercises embrace the and support, it is appropriate to take co- utmost transparency with regards to their benefits of climate action into account ethical, normative and methodological when determining the support needs for choices, the implications of those choices implementing certain measures. This is as well as the implications of choices not because measures for which the value of taken, and of the limitations and their co-benefits exceeds the cost of shortcomings of their approach (and their implementing the measure might have implications). The iGST could helpfully zero or negative costs, with implications illuminate standards and principles for for whether, or what type of, support is equity benchmarking, but the actual needed. However, it is important not to conduct of equity assessments may best overclaim co-benefits that emphasize net be relegated to other processes; benefits because this risks overlooking disruptions that large-scale and rapid ˜ Another way in which the i/GST ought to mitigation entails. The “net benefits” ensure equity is via the equitable and perspective. May also fail to take

24 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019

important equity considerations into stages and aspects of the initiative. account since those benefits and costs Initiatives that cannot successfully ensure might be occurring to different people, in such involvement should carefully different regions or countries, and even consider whether it is appropriate to different generations. present themselves as “global” or universal initiatives or instead embrace the ˜ Finally, procedural equity is important limits of their reach and make where the aim is to produce equitable representations only on behalf of the outcomes. In the context of the i/GST, the perspectives that are actually represented question of procedural equity primarily in the initiative. arises in the context of full and meaningful involvement and participation of a critical mass of Southern perspectives in all

+ References

[1] UNFCCC, “Decision 1/CP.21 Adoption of the Considerations in the Allocation of a ‘Right to Paris Agreement, Document Extract,’” Clim. Change, vol. 150, no. 1–2, pp. FCCC/CP/2015/10/Add.1,” United Nations 117–129, 2019. Framework Convention on Climate Change, [7] CSO Equity Review, “Fair Shares: A Civil Bonn, 2015 [Online]. Available: Society Equity Review of INDCs,” CSO Equity http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21 Review Coalition, Manila, London, Cape Town, /eng/10a01.pdf Washington, et al., 2015 [Online]. Available: [2] UNFCCC, “Report of the Conference of the http://civilsocietyreview.org/report Parties Serving as the Meeting of the Parties [8] CAT, Tracking INDCs. Climate Action Tracker, to the Paris Agreement on the Third Part of Its 2015 [Online]. Available: First Session, Held in Katowice from 2 to 15 https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/ December 2018. Addendum 2. Part Two: [9] IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Action Taken by the Conference of the Climate Change. Working Group III Parties,” United Nations Office, Geneva, 2019 Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of [Online]. Available: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate https://unfccc.int/documents/193408 Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New [3] W. Obergassel, “Success Factors for the York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2014. Global Stocktake.” Wuppertal Institut, [10] P. Pauw, K. Mbeva, and H. van Asselt, “Subtle Wuppertal, 2019. Differentiation of Countries’ Responsibilities [4] S. Klinsky and H. Winkler, “Building Equity in: Under the Paris Agreement,” Palgrave Strategies for Integrating Equity into Commun., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 1–7, 2019 [Online]. Modelling for a 1.5°C World,” Philos. Trans. R. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41599- Soc. A, vol. 376, no. 2119, 2018. 019-0298-6 [5] SEI, IISD, ODI, Climate Analytics, CICERO, and [11] H. Winkler, N. Höhne, G. Cunliffe, T. UNEP, “The Production Gap: The Discrepancy Kuramochi, A. April, and M. J. de Villafranca Between Countries’ Planned Fossil Fuel Casas, “Countries Start to Explain How their Production and Global Production Levels Climate Contributions are Fair: More Rigour Consistent with Limiting Warming to 1.5°C or Needed,” Int. Environ. Agreements Polit. Law 2°C,” 2019 [Online]. Available: Econ., vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 99–115, 2018. http://productiongap.org/ [12] UNFCCC, “Report of the Conference of the [6] S. Kartha, S. Caney, N. K. Dubash, and G. Parties Serving as the Meeting of the Parties Muttitt, “Whose Carbon Is Burnable? Equity

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 25 Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019

to the Paris Agreement on the Third Part of Its [21] H. Al-Zahrani et al., “Ensuring an Operational First Session, Held in Katowice from 2 to 15 Equity-based Global Stocktake under the Paris December 2018. Addendum 1. Part Two: Agreement,” Geneve, 99, 2019 [Online]. Action Taken by the Conference of the Available: Parties,” United Nations Office, Geneva, 2019 https://www.southcentre.int/research-paper- [Online]. Available: 99-september-2019/ https://unfccc.int/documents/193407 [22] C. Holz and X. Ngwadla, “The Global Stocktake [13] T. Athanasiou, “Modelling Equity... In Both Under the Paris Agreement. Opportunities and Senses of the Term,” in iGST Webinar “Equity Challenges,” European Capacity Building in the Global Stocktake: Approaches to Initiative and Oxford Climate Policy, Oxford, Modelling Equity in the Paris Agreement,” 2016 [Online]. Available: February 12, 2019. http://eurocapacity.org/downloads/GST_201 [14] UNFCCC, “United Nations Framework 6[1].pdf Convention on Climate Change,” United [23] C. Watson and L. Roberts, “Understanding Nations Office, Geneva, 1992 [Online]. Finance in the Global Stocktake,” in iGST - Available: Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conv Series, 2019 [Online]. Available: eng.pdf https://climateworks.org/independentglobals [15] UNFCCC, “Draft Paris Outcome. Proposal by tocktake/ the President. Version 1 of 9 December 2016,” [24] C. Lang and T. Byakola, “A Funny Place to Store United Nations Framework Convention on Carbon”: UWA-FACE Foundation’s Tree Climate Change, Bonn, 2015 [Online]. Planting Project in Mount Elgon National Park, Available: Uganda. Montevideo: World Rainforest http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21 Movement, 2006 [Online]. Available: /eng/da01.pdf http://www.wrm.org.uy/countries/Uganda/b [16] UNFCCC, “Decision 1/CP.20 Lima Call for ook.html Climate Action, document [25] T. Athanasiou, S. Kartha, and P. Baer, “National FCCC/CP/2014/10/Add.1,” United Nations Fair Shares: The Mitigation Gap – Domestic Framework Convention on Climate Change, Action and International Support,” EcoEquity Lima, 2014. and Stockholm Environment Institute, [17] C. Holz, S. Kartha, and T. Athanasiou, “Fairly Berkeley and Somerville, 2014. sharing 1.5: National fair shares of a 1.5 °C- [26] W. P. Pauw, P. Castro, J. Pickering, and S. compliant global mitigation effort,” Int. Bhasin, “Conditional nationally determined Environ. Agreements Polit. Law Econ., vol. 18, contributions in the Paris Agreement: foothold no. 1, 2018. for equity or Achilles heel?,” Clim. Policy, vol. 0, [18] CSO Equity Review, “After Paris: Inequality, no. 0, pp. 1–17, 2019 [Online]. Available: Fair Shares, and the Climate Emergency,” CSO https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.163 Equity Review Coalition, Manila, London, Cape 5874 Town, Washington, et al., 2018 [Online]. Available: http://civilsocietyreview.org/report2018 [19] B. Lahn, “In the Light of Equity and Science: Scientific Expertise and Climate Justice After Paris,” Int. Environ. Agreements Polit. Law Econ., vol. 18, no. Special Issue: Achieving 1.5°C and Climate Justice, 2018 [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784- 017-9375-8 [20] H. Winkler, “Putting Equity into Practice in the Global Stocktake Under the Paris Agreement,” Clim. Policy, 2019 [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.168 0337

26 iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series Equity in the Global Stocktake and Independent Global Stocktake — December 2019

Additional resources are available online: https://www.climateworks.org/independentglobalstocktake/

iGST – Designing a Robust Stocktake Discussion Series 27