No. 342 JUNE Bulletin 2005 RUNNYMEDE’S QUARTERLY Labour’s third win leaves Commons’ ethnic mix unchanged Ta b le 1: MPs (BME) returned to Parliament by the 2005 General Election Name Constituency Party First Elected The 2005 General Election result has already faded into Diane Abbott Hackney North & Stoke Newington Lab 1987 memory. Apart from its purely historic significance for Labour, Keith Vaz Leicester East Lab 1987 Piara Khabra Ealing Southall Lab 1992 and starting, prolonging or ending the careers of individual Ashok Kumar Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East Lab 1997 MPs, it produced little general change. Omar Khan looks at Mohammad Sarwar Glasgow Govan Lab 1997 Marsha Singh Bradford West Lab 1997 how the black and minority ethnic vote affected the picture. David Lammy Tottenham Lab 2000* Mark Hendrick Preston Lab 2001* Though the General Election 2005 the Liberal Democrats’ first and only Parmjit Dhanda Gloucester Lab 2001 Khalid Mahmood Birmingham Perry Barr Lab 2001 produced an historic moment for BME MP Parmjit Singh Gill had lost Dawn Butler Brent South Lab 2005 the Labour party it did not witness their seats, the net overall increase Sadiq Khan Tooting Lab 2005 Shahid Malik Dewsbury Lab 2005 many major shocks nor did it in BME MPs was just 3.These results Shailesh Vara Cambridgeshire NW Con 2005 contradict the current electoral indicate some solid continuities with Adam Afriyie Windsor Con 2005 trends when looked at from the the most recent elections as well as Sources: Khan (2001b: 16–17); Census 2001; BBC 2005 Election website *First elected in a by-election. national viewpoint. Certain results some new developments. do indicate new developments, though it is perhaps too soon to Understanding the Ta b le 2: BME representation in General Elections 1979–2005 tell if they represent long-term Continuities Election BME BME MPs Party successes with BME candidates trends.When considering the role 1 – BME MPs are few in number candidates elected 1979 5 0 2 Lab, 2 Lib, 1 Con; no winnable seat and experience of black and The first BME MP,Dadabhai Naoroji, 1983 18 0 One winnable seat only (Labour) minority ethnic (BME) candidates was elected in the late 19th century, 1987 29 4 1st postwar BME MPs; all Labour 1992 24 6 1st postwar BME Conservative and voters, this story – of overall with two others elected in the early 1997 44 9 All Lab; 1st non-urban BME MP continuity but some local variance – 20th century. However, between 2001 59 12 All Lab; 1st Muslim, Scottish MP 2005 113 15 5 new MPs; 2 Conservative (see Table 1) is much the same. 1929 and 1987 no BME MPs were Sources: Khan (2001a: 3); Khan (2003: 15); BBC 2005 Election webpage; In the 2005 General Election, 15 returned to Parliament and very Operation Black Vote webpage BME MPs were returned to few candidates were even fielded by Parliament (see Table 1). Like every the major parties. Indeed, it was not three additional MPs in each other election since 1987, this until 1983 that a BME candidate election. Notably, the pace of represents a small upward trend, was fielded in a winnable seat, increase has not changed in line though at 2% of the House of though the breakthrough would with the rise in numbers of BME Commons’ total membership, BME have to wait until the General candidates since 1992. From an MPs still fall far short of matching Election four years later, when four overall UK figure of 7.9% black and their 8% overall figure for the UK. different Labour MPs (Diane minority ethnic population, a Five new members, two Abbott, Paul Boateng, Bernie Grant proportional share in a parliament Conservative (Adam Afriye and and Keith Vaz) won in urban seats in of 646 would be roughly 51 MPs. Shailesh Vara) and three Labour London and the East Midlands (see But if the current pace of growth of (Dawn Butler, Sadiq Khan and Table 2). three MPs per election continues, it Shahid Malik – see Table 1) joined Since 1987, the number of BME will take 12 more elections, or their colleagues in Westminster. MPs has increased consistently but roughly 50 years, to see 51 BME However, because Oona King and extremely slowly, with either two or MPs elected. ISSN: 1476-363X RUNNYMEDE’S QUARTERLY BULLETIN JUNE 2005 1 The current increase in BME the representative proportion of voters. By gaining Ilford South in MPs is even more underwhelming BME MPs ought to be over 100, 2005, the Conservatives won a in relation to the overall growth of but how close to that seat with their highest proportion the BME population in the representative total are we likely of BME constituents at 24%, or previous two decades. While the to be? 58th highest in the country. BME population passed two million The national trend of strong DEMOCRACY & around 1980, and three million in 2 – BME politicians have little support for the Labour party, REPRESENTATION 1990, by the 2001 Census it power particularly in urban seats, has numbered 4.6 million. So while the It is not only in terms of numbers impacted on the Conservative gap between the proportion of that BME representation falls far party’s ability to win certain seats BME MPs and BME inhabitants is short of national figures.There are that they competed for in the past. decreasing, the modest growth also very few influential BME Although the BME population has trends for MPs look even more leaders within the major parties more than doubled since 1981, insignificant. In about 50 years’ and indeed in Government. For from 2.1 million to 4.6 million, this time, it would not be surprising if example, only 4 out of 114 growth has been particularly Government posts (3.5%) are held marked in urban areas. As a result Ta b le 3:Top 20 constituencies in terms of BME by BME MPs or peers, and the the demographics of particular population proportion, with party holding seat (2005) only BME minister in the 23- constituencies have changed person Cabinet is Baroness Valerie substantially, such that urban seats Constituency BME pop. % Party Amos. that used to favour the East Ham 66.27 Labour Birmingham, Ladywood 64.89 Labour Conservatives have begun to lean Birmingham, Sparkbrook & Small Heath 64.84 Labour 3 – Urban seats with large BME towards Labour (see Table 4). Brent South 64.59 Labour populations vote Labour West Ham 60.23 Labour If the lack of numbers and New Developments Brent North 58.17 Labour influence among BME MPs 1 – Conservative BME MPs and Ilford South 54.87 Labour Ealing, Southall 52.67 Labour indicates one kind of continuity more candidates Camberwell and Peckham 50.24 Labour demonstrated by the recent Perhaps the most important Bethnal Green and Bow 49.82 Respect election, so too does the strength development of the 2005 vote was Leicester East 49.80 Labour of the Labour party in seats with the election of two Conservative Croydon North 49.49 Labour high proportions of BME voters. BME MPs – Adam Afriyie in Birmingham, Perry Barr 48.08 Labour Bradford West 47.40 Labour Such seats are invariably urban and Windsor and Shailesh Vara in Poplar and Canning Town 45.67 Labour often relatively deprived, indicating Cambridgeshire NW. Although Nirj Harrow East 44.87 Labour another source of the Labour Deva had become the first Tottenham 44.86 Labour party’s strength in these postwar Conservative MP during Lewisham, Deptford 43.36 Labour constituencies. As a result, 47 of the 1992–7 Parliament, since the Brent East 42.27 Lib Dem Hackney South and Shoreditch 41.72 Labour the top 50 seats in terms of BME first Labour landslide in the 1997 population are held by the Labour General Election no Conservative Sources: Khan (2003: 8); BBC Election website party (see Table 3). BME MPs had been elected. This strength of the Labour The Conservative party was party in seats with high BME disappointed not to win a closely Ta b le 4: Constituencies once held by Conservatives, with growing BME populations, now held by Labour populations points to a difficulty fought contest in Northampton- for both the Conservatives and shire in 2001, so in 2005 they Constituency Last held by BME% population Liberal Democrats. In general, made some significant changes. Conservative 2001 1991 1981 Brent North 1992 58.17 41.74 23 support for the two parties in While they tripled the number of Leicester East 1983 49.80 38.07 26 opposition is often strongest in BME candidates to 41, nearly all of Ilford South 1987 54.87 35.66 20 rural areas with small black and them were placed in unwinnable Croydon North 1987 49.49 30.94 23 minority ethnic populations.Yet seats. Crucially, however, Afriye and Harrow East 1992 44.87 30.24 17 most BME candidates were raised Vara stood in constituencies where Slough 1987 37.28 28.13 21 Streatham 1987 35.74 28.02 20 or educated in urban areas and the previous Conservative MP had Feltham and Heston 1987 38.98 27.02 20 thus presumably better represent been standing down and therefore Dulwich and West Norwood 1987 30.57 23.08 17 urban constituents. But as noted handing on an existing and possibly Ealing North 1992 35.28 22.98 <15 above, such urban constituencies loyal majority of the vote. Although Harrow West 1992 37.34 22.51 <15 with large BME populations are neither of these seats is urban, Brentford and Isleworth 1992 31.65 22.49 <15 Finchley and Golders Green 1992 26.17 21.29 16 among Labour’s safest seats.