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An Analysis of the Main Types of Risks, Hazards and Natural Disasters Along the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast

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An Analysis of the Main Types of Risks, Hazards and Natural Disasters Along the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast An Analysis of the Main Types of Risks, Hazards and Natural Disasters along the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast Common borders. Common solutions. Joint Operational Programme Black Sea Basin 2014-2020 www.blacksea-cbc.net Table of Contents Study Purpose ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Analysis Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 4 Introductory Premises ...................................................................................................................... 5 Regulatory Framework and Definitions ............................................................................................ 7 Natural Disasters – Environmental Factors and Hazards................................................................... 9 The Regional and Local Perspective ............................................................................................. 14 Significance of Extreme Water Phenomena .................................................................................. 17 Floods and Causes of Flooding ..................................................................................................... 21 2014 – The year of severe floods .................................................................................................. 23 Earthquakes: Zonal significance and impact. ................................................................................ 32 Processes determining the degree of geological hazard .............................................................. 33 Other Relevant Natural Phenomena Leading to Disastrous Events ............................................. 36 Varna Municipality and District Specifics .......................................................................................... 38 Specific Flood Risks Factors for Varna .......................................................................................... 39 Geomorphological specifics and related risks for Varna District ................................................... 41 Burgas Municipality and District Specifics ........................................................................................ 44 Fires – a Category Apart ................................................................................................................... 48 Burgas District Fire Risk Specifics ................................................................................................. 51 Varna District Fire Risk Specifics ................................................................................................... 52 Dobrich District Fire Risk Specifics ................................................................................................ 53 Climate Change. Incidence on Risk Profile Definition. ..................................................................... 55 Climate Change Impact on Flooding ............................................................................................. 58 Climate Change Impact on Landmass Instability .......................................................................... 59 Socio-Economic Factors and Regional Anthropic Risk Profiles ....................................................... 63 Varna District: .................................................................................................................................... 65 Anthropogenic Specifics and Socio-economic Disaster Risk Factors .............................................. 65 Socio-Economic Disaster Risks & Environmental Impacts of Human Activity .............................. 67 Specific Radiation Risk Profile of Varna ........................................................................................ 70 Burgas District: .................................................................................................................................. 71 Anthropogenic Specifics and Socio-economic Disaster Risk Factors .............................................. 71 Specific Radiation Risk Profile of Burgas ...................................................................................... 75 Oil Spills and Port Activity .............................................................................................................. 76 Biological Contamination Risks ...................................................................................................... 77 Common borders. Common solutions. 2 Joint Operational Programme Black Sea Basin 2014-2020. www.blacksea-cbc.net Preliminary Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 77 Summary Recommendations on Prevention and Response Approaches ....................................... 78 Recommendations for Necessary Investments in Human and Material Resources ........................ 80 Recommendations for the development of voluntary networks ........................................................ 81 Conclusions and Institutional Perspectives ....................................................................................... 81 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................................... 85 List of Tables and Figures Figure 1 – Relative share of crisis events by type (2004-2016) – NSI, 2017 ................................................... 10 Figure 2 – Relative share of natural disaster events by type (2004-2016) – NSI, 2017 .................................. 11 Table 1 – Major Disaster Statistics for Bulgaria, up to 2016 (EM-DAT) ........................................................... 12 Table 2 – Crisis events in Bulgaria over the period 2010 – 2018 (NSI, 2020) ................................................. 13 Table 3. Natural critical event damages 2010-2016 (NSI, 2017) ..................................................................... 13 Figure 3 – Natural disasters by District/Region – 2010 through 2014. (NSI, 2015) ......................................... 15 Table 4. Reasons for and causes of critical events, 2008 (Municipal Data, NSI) ............................................ 16 Table 6. Floods – country total and by regions/districts. .................................................................................. 22 Table 7. Economic Losses caused by Floods (in BGN Thousands). ............................................................... 22 Figure 4 – Flood simulation models for the main River Basins – 2013 (ReSAC, MoEW, NSI) ....................... 26 Table 8. Most relevant flood scenarios within BSB territory. ............................................................................ 27 Figure 5. Floor Risk Map within the Black Sea Basin water management territory. ........................................ 28 Table 9. A list of high flood risk areas along the Black Sea coast (source: BSB WMD). ................................. 29 Table 10. Earthquakes – total for the country and the analysed districts......................................................... 33 Table 11. Economic losses caused by Earthquakes – total for the country and the analysed districts. (BGN thousand). .......................................................................................................................................... 33 Figure 6. Geological risk zones and geomorphological risk factors in East Bulgaria....................................... 34 Table 12. Landslides – total for the country and the analysed districts. ........................................................... 35 Table 13. Economic Losses caused by landslides – total for the country and the analysed districts (BGN thousands). ........................................................................................................................................ 36 Figure 7. A colour coded Land erosion risk mapping in North East Bulgaria. .................................................. 42 Table 14. Landslides by severity Varna and Burgas districts (I-IV: severe to moderate) ................................ 43 Figure 8. A colour coded Land erosion risk mapping in South-East Bulgaria. ................................................. 48 Table 15. Fires – total for the country and the analysed districts ..................................................................... 49 Table 16. Economic Losses caused by Fires – total for the country and the analysed districts (in BGN Thousands). ....................................................................................................................................... 49 Table 17. Causes for fires throughout the country, 2008. ................................................................................ 50 Figure 9. Natural disaster distribution in Bulgaria by type, 1980-2010. (EMDAT, 2014) ................................. 55 Table 18. CRI and Weather-related Loss Events in Bulgaria in recent years and over a period of 20 years.. 57 Figure 10. Landslide areas along the Black Sea coast with their risk levels .................................................... 60 Figure 11. Structural Distribution of Land Use in Varna District ....................................................................... 66 Figure 12. Mapping the oil spills in the Black Sea since 2000. .......................................................................
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