An Analysis of the Main Types of Risks, Hazards and Natural Disasters along the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast Common borders. Common solutions. Joint Operational Programme Black Sea Basin 2014-2020 www.blacksea-cbc.net Table of Contents Study Purpose ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Analysis Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 4 Introductory Premises ...................................................................................................................... 5 Regulatory Framework and Definitions ............................................................................................ 7 Natural Disasters – Environmental Factors and Hazards................................................................... 9 The Regional and Local Perspective ............................................................................................. 14 Significance of Extreme Water Phenomena .................................................................................. 17 Floods and Causes of Flooding ..................................................................................................... 21 2014 – The year of severe floods .................................................................................................. 23 Earthquakes: Zonal significance and impact. ................................................................................ 32 Processes determining the degree of geological hazard .............................................................. 33 Other Relevant Natural Phenomena Leading to Disastrous Events ............................................. 36 Varna Municipality and District Specifics .......................................................................................... 38 Specific Flood Risks Factors for Varna .......................................................................................... 39 Geomorphological specifics and related risks for Varna District ................................................... 41 Burgas Municipality and District Specifics ........................................................................................ 44 Fires – a Category Apart ................................................................................................................... 48 Burgas District Fire Risk Specifics ................................................................................................. 51 Varna District Fire Risk Specifics ................................................................................................... 52 Dobrich District Fire Risk Specifics ................................................................................................ 53 Climate Change. Incidence on Risk Profile Definition. ..................................................................... 55 Climate Change Impact on Flooding ............................................................................................. 58 Climate Change Impact on Landmass Instability .......................................................................... 59 Socio-Economic Factors and Regional Anthropic Risk Profiles ....................................................... 63 Varna District: .................................................................................................................................... 65 Anthropogenic Specifics and Socio-economic Disaster Risk Factors .............................................. 65 Socio-Economic Disaster Risks & Environmental Impacts of Human Activity .............................. 67 Specific Radiation Risk Profile of Varna ........................................................................................ 70 Burgas District: .................................................................................................................................. 71 Anthropogenic Specifics and Socio-economic Disaster Risk Factors .............................................. 71 Specific Radiation Risk Profile of Burgas ...................................................................................... 75 Oil Spills and Port Activity .............................................................................................................. 76 Biological Contamination Risks ...................................................................................................... 77 Common borders. Common solutions. 2 Joint Operational Programme Black Sea Basin 2014-2020. www.blacksea-cbc.net Preliminary Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 77 Summary Recommendations on Prevention and Response Approaches ....................................... 78 Recommendations for Necessary Investments in Human and Material Resources ........................ 80 Recommendations for the development of voluntary networks ........................................................ 81 Conclusions and Institutional Perspectives ....................................................................................... 81 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................................... 85 List of Tables and Figures Figure 1 – Relative share of crisis events by type (2004-2016) – NSI, 2017 ................................................... 10 Figure 2 – Relative share of natural disaster events by type (2004-2016) – NSI, 2017 .................................. 11 Table 1 – Major Disaster Statistics for Bulgaria, up to 2016 (EM-DAT) ........................................................... 12 Table 2 – Crisis events in Bulgaria over the period 2010 – 2018 (NSI, 2020) ................................................. 13 Table 3. Natural critical event damages 2010-2016 (NSI, 2017) ..................................................................... 13 Figure 3 – Natural disasters by District/Region – 2010 through 2014. (NSI, 2015) ......................................... 15 Table 4. Reasons for and causes of critical events, 2008 (Municipal Data, NSI) ............................................ 16 Table 6. Floods – country total and by regions/districts. .................................................................................. 22 Table 7. Economic Losses caused by Floods (in BGN Thousands). ............................................................... 22 Figure 4 – Flood simulation models for the main River Basins – 2013 (ReSAC, MoEW, NSI) ....................... 26 Table 8. Most relevant flood scenarios within BSB territory. ............................................................................ 27 Figure 5. Floor Risk Map within the Black Sea Basin water management territory. ........................................ 28 Table 9. A list of high flood risk areas along the Black Sea coast (source: BSB WMD). ................................. 29 Table 10. Earthquakes – total for the country and the analysed districts......................................................... 33 Table 11. Economic losses caused by Earthquakes – total for the country and the analysed districts. (BGN thousand). .......................................................................................................................................... 33 Figure 6. Geological risk zones and geomorphological risk factors in East Bulgaria....................................... 34 Table 12. Landslides – total for the country and the analysed districts. ........................................................... 35 Table 13. Economic Losses caused by landslides – total for the country and the analysed districts (BGN thousands). ........................................................................................................................................ 36 Figure 7. A colour coded Land erosion risk mapping in North East Bulgaria. .................................................. 42 Table 14. Landslides by severity Varna and Burgas districts (I-IV: severe to moderate) ................................ 43 Figure 8. A colour coded Land erosion risk mapping in South-East Bulgaria. ................................................. 48 Table 15. Fires – total for the country and the analysed districts ..................................................................... 49 Table 16. Economic Losses caused by Fires – total for the country and the analysed districts (in BGN Thousands). ....................................................................................................................................... 49 Table 17. Causes for fires throughout the country, 2008. ................................................................................ 50 Figure 9. Natural disaster distribution in Bulgaria by type, 1980-2010. (EMDAT, 2014) ................................. 55 Table 18. CRI and Weather-related Loss Events in Bulgaria in recent years and over a period of 20 years.. 57 Figure 10. Landslide areas along the Black Sea coast with their risk levels .................................................... 60 Figure 11. Structural Distribution of Land Use in Varna District ....................................................................... 66 Figure 12. Mapping the oil spills in the Black Sea since 2000. .......................................................................