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Impacts of Future Agricultural Change on Ecosystem Service Indicators Sam S
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-44 Preprint. Discussion started: 15 August 2019 c Author(s) 2019. CC BY 4.0 License. Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators Sam S. Rabin1, Peter Alexander2,3, Roslyn Henry2, Peter Anthoni1, Thomas A. M. Pugh4,5, Mark Rounsevell1, and Almut Arneth1 1Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research / Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany 2School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, UK 3Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, The Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, UK 4School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, UK 5Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, UK Correspondence: Sam S. Rabin ([email protected]) Abstract. A future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climate, growing human populations, and shifting socioeconomic conditions means that the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. These changes will affect not only agricultural land, but terrestrial ecosystems in general. Here, we use the coupled land use and vegetation model LandSyMM to quantify future land use change and resulting impacts on ecosystem service indicators 5 including carbon sequestration, runoff, and nitrogen pollution. We additionally hold certain variables, such as climate or land use, constant to assess the relative contribution of different drivers to the projected impacts. While indicators of some ecosystem services (e.g., flood and drought risk) see trends that are mostly dominated by the direct effects of climate change, others (e.g., carbon sequestration) depend critically on land use and management. Scenarios in which climate change mitigation is more difficult (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) have the strongest impacts on ecosystem service indicators, such as a loss 10 of 13–19% of land in biodiversity hotspots and a 28% increase in nitrogen pollution. -
THE SIXTH EXTINCTION: an UNNATURAL HISTORY Copyright © 2014 by Elizabeth Kolbert
The author and publisher have provided this e-book to you for your personal use only. You may not make this e-book publicly available in any way. Copyright infringement is against the law. If you believe the copy of this e-book you are reading infringes on the author’s copyright, please notify the publisher at: us.macmillanusa.com/piracy. THE SIXTH EXTINCTION: AN UNNATURAL HISTORY Copyright © 2014 by Elizabeth Kolbert. All rights reserved. For information, address Henry Holt and Co., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010. www.henryholt.com Jacket photograph from the National Museum of Natural History, courtesy of the Smithsonian Institution e-ISBN 978-0-8050-9979-9 First Edition: February 2014 If there is danger in the human trajectory, it is not so much in the survival of our own species as in the fulfillment of the ultimate irony of organic evolution: that in the instant of achieving self- understanding through the mind of man, life has doomed its most beautiful creations. —E. O. WILSON Centuries of centuries and only in the present do things happen. —JORGE LUIS BORGES CONTENTS Title Page Copyright Notice Copyright Epigraph Author’s Note Prologue I: The Sixth Extinction II: The Mastodon’s Molars III: The Original Penguin IV: The Luck of the Ammonites V: Welcome to the Anthropocene VI: The Sea Around Us VII: Dropping Acid VIII: The Forest and the Trees IX: Islands on Dry Land X: The New Pangaea XI: The Rhino Gets an Ultrasound XII: The Madness Gene XIII: The Thing with Feathers Acknowledgments Notes Selected Bibliography Photo/Illustration Credits Index About the Author Also by Elizabeth Kolbert AUTHOR’S NOTE Though the discourse of science is metric, most Americans think in terms of miles, acres, and degrees Fahrenheit. -
Vegetation and the Initial Human Setflement Of
(993l. of BiogeographY 20'39H12 lourrtal 2 Gd" ilty {iammals, vegetation and the initial human setflement of palaeoecological tne Mediterranean islands: a approach 'rofion: l Afric¿, S c s Ü I a Institut Ur- und F rühgeschich¡e, Albert-Ludn'igs- Universit¿it, D7800 F re i. llins. \\ rl r, r. M für iburg Br., Gennant' ' ¡on. II1. J, shop qt .ur A, ¿l carbon of the lack of carnivores. the genetically fixed behaviour bon patterns for flight and attack are lost in island endemics. +7. u.s. During the Middle (Corso-Sardinia) and Upper Pleistocene, suspected or established (Sardinia, Cyprus, A Sicily) invasions of Homo sp. led to the near-complete ry extinction of the unwary endemic fauna. Some islands \rc$. as are the reasons for the extinction of the (Sicily, Corso-Sardinia) were repopulated by swimming t)uatcrìaü fauna. Small arboricole mammals may have ungulates which were exterminated by later human inva- n,,checi the islands on vegetation-rafts. Some larger mam- sions. For lack of game, a permanent human settlement mirls, like Myotragus on the Balearic Islands, Prolagus on was nearly impossible before the Neolithic. All extant wild Srrdinia, and possibly endemic deer on the Aegean islands, ungulates on the Mediterranean islands are feral domestic irruld be relics of the desiccation of the Mediterranean on animals, or continental game with intact behavioural pat- rhc Mio/Pliocene border. Hippos, elephants and giant deer terns introduced for religious or hunting purposes during alched the islands by swimming. At the a¡rival of new the Neolithic or later. None of them has Pleistocene ances- rpcies, older endemic species became extinct by ecologi- tors on the islands. -
Looking Ahead to 2050: Evolution of Agricultural Trade Policies
Looking Ahead to 2050: Evolution of Agricultural Trade Policies Tim Josling* The past four decades have seen remarkable developments in agricultural trade and in the policies and institutions that provide the environment for that trade. Agricultural trade has moved from being dominated by the purchase of raw materials from land-rich countries and those blessed with tropical climates to a complex network of marketing chains supplying food and other farm products to all corners of the world. The multilateral trade rules have evolved from informal codes of conduct for manufactured goods that had little impact on agricultural trade to a treaty-based agreement that determines in what form and by how much governments can intervene in agricultural markets at home and at the border. The regional trade rules that have been adopted in an explosion of preferential agreements also increasingly apply to agricultural and food trade, leading to a partial polarization of trade around several major markets. The task of this paper is to discuss future trends in agricultural and food trade policies. How are the institutions, domestic, regional or multilateral, likely to evolve over the next forty years? Will the emphasis be on consolidation of progress already made? Will globalization reach its ultimate endpoint of a borderless market for agricultural and food products with consumer choice determining trade flows along with the cool logic of sourcing from low-cost suppliers? Or are we likely to see trade evolve in different directions? Will we see a resurgence -
Ant Network Theory
Ant Network Theory Bodhisattva Chattopadhyay † University of Oslo and Center for Advanced Study, Oslo Geoffrey C. Bowker ‡ University of California at Irvine and Center for Advanced Study, Oslo Because SF is a thought experiment and engages in worldbuilding, this paper is a hybrid faction piece that presents a history of ants in SF (across texts and media) as one connected narrative, while working through this history as an insertion into Nature-Culture debates through the production of new SF. In constructing SF worlds, writers work with what is called the genre mega-text:1 the tropes and themes that constitute the identity of the genre. For SF however, this mega-text also involves a cluster of associations from other forms and kinds of texts, including scientific speculation, anthropological theory, STS, among others. The main storyline is based on several fiction and film pieces that structure the enquiry, from early works by H. G. Wells and Premendra Mitra, to Big Bug films, to new SF from the 21st century. The stories can be read as standalone pieces, yet we hope that the reader will read the endnotes, picking up the references which provide a glimpse into our strategies of worlding. The speakers in the endnotes are two time-travelling scholars writing from an unspecified far future, at a time when other beings rule the planet. They are using references from STS scholarship and SF that are more familiar, from our own time, in order to speak to us, even if the necessity to traverse multiple temporalities through simple language to express the Ant Network Theory (ANT) on occasion produces spatiotemporal anomalies. -
Peter D. Ward – Curriculum Vitae Born May 12, 1949, Seattle Washington, USA Married, Two Children
1 Peter D. Ward – Curriculum Vitae Born May 12, 1949, Seattle Washington, USA Married, two children 1. Education B.S., 1971 Interdisciplinary Studies (Paleoecology), University of Washington, Seattle M.S., 1973 Geology, University of Washington, Seattle Ph.D., 1976 Geology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada Employment 1976-1978 Assistant Professor, Department of Geology, Ohio State University 1978-1981 Assistant Professor, Department of Geology, University of California, Davis 1981-1983 Associate Professor with Tenure, Department of Geology and Division of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Davis 1982 Visiting Scientist, Laboratoire Arago (C.N.R.S.), Banyuls, France 1984 Professor, Department of Geology, University of California, Davis 1985 Associate Professor, University of Washington 1986 Professor, Department of Geological Sciences, and Adjunct Professor, Department of Zoology, University of Washington 1989- 1996 Curator of Invertebrate Paleontology, Thomas Burke Memorial Museum, University of Washington 1991. Visiting Scientist, South African Museum 1992-1996 Chairman and Head, Division of Geology and Paleontology, Thomas Burke Memorial Museum, University of Washington 2000. Visiting Scientist, South African Museum 2001 – present, Adjunct Professor, Department of Astronomy, University of Washington 2003- present, Professor, Dept. of Biology, and Professor, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, The University of Washington 2007- Adjunct Curator, Burke Museum of Natural History and Culture, University of -
Downloaded from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Modelling Version 1.1 (BCC–CSM 1.1) for Future Model Building
Article Impact of Past and Future Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of an Endangered Montane Shrub Lonicera oblata and Its Conservation Implications Yuan-Mi Wu , Xue-Li Shen, Ling Tong, Feng-Wei Lei, Xian-Yun Mu * and Zhi-Xiang Zhang Laboratory of Systematic Evolution and Biogeography of Woody Plants, School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China; [email protected] (Y.-M.W.); [email protected] (X.-L.S.); [email protected] (L.T.); [email protected] (F.-W.L.); [email protected] (Z.-X.Z.) * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, we modeled the distributional dynamics of a critically endangered montane shrub Lonicera oblata in response to climate change under different periods by building a comprehensive habitat suitability model considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. Our results indicated that the current suitable habitats for L. oblata are located scarcely in North China. Historical modeling indicated that L. oblata achieved its maximum potential distribution in the last interglacial period which covered southwest China, while its distribution area decreased for almost 50% during the last glacial maximum. It further contracted during the middle Holocene to a distribution resembling the current pattern. Future modeling showed that the suitable habitats of L. oblata contracted dramatically, and populations were fragmentedly distributed in these areas. Citation: Wu, Y.-M.; Shen, X.-L.; As a whole, the distribution of L. -
An Improbable View of Tertiary Dinosaurs. Evolutionary Theory 9, 1990
309 AN IMPROBABLE VIEW OF TERTIARY DINOSAURS Gregory S. Paul 3109 N. Calvert St. Side Apt. Baltimore MD 21218 U.S.A. Received 26 March 1990 The New Dinosaurs - An Alternative Evolution, byD. Dixon. 1988. Salem House Publishers: Topsfield, 1988, 120 pp. T6 many of us the fact that dinosaurs are no.longer around is a supreme frustration - we would give anything to see them. I have come across a few dinosaurologists who prefer dinosaurs as a case of detective work rather than field ~ork~ ~o them I say "tisk-tisk". Others note that had dinosaurs not gone extinct'w~ would not be around to see them anyway, and to them I say "details, details"! D. Dixon is one of the discontented, and in The New Dinosaurs - An Alternative Evolution he explores how dinosaurs migl1thave evolved if they, and some other Mesozoic creatures, not bought the farm circa 65 Myr ago. This book is patterned after his look at what may befall Earth's future fauna in After Man - ! Zoology £i the Future. In his forward for the new volume D. Morris says that Dixon's modern dino- saurs left him "rarely disappointed". I am afraid that I was disap- pointed more often. Indeed, I found The New Dinosaurs to be persistently frustrating, to an extent beyond whatI can detail· in this review. Dixon claims t6at his dinosaurian extrapolaiions are based on evolutionary princi- ples, yet he came up with a menagerie of creatures that have little to do with the real dinosaurs of the Mesozoic, and are often wholly implausible. -
The Evolution of Humanity
THE EVOLUTION OF HUMANITY: PAST, PRESENT, AND POSSIBLE FUTURE A Review of Humanity’s Taxonomic Classification and Proposal to Classify Humanity as a Sixth Kingdom, Symbolia January 200l John Allen, FLS Global Ecotechnics Corporation 1 Bluebird Court Santa Fe, NM 87508 Email: [email protected] A shorter version of this paper was first published as a philosophic essay in The Duversity Newsletter No.4 (2000) edited and published by the British thinker, AGE Blake. I am taking the step of publishing this expanded paper electronically with fuller scientific details and complete bibliography for the use of any scientist or other thinker or artist or citizen who finds it interesting and will make the proper acknowledgments if they use any part of the paper. I have reviewed the thrust of this full paper with several outstanding scientific thinkers and have been stimulated by their critical feedback. I especially acknowledge stimulating conversations with John Marsden, Sir Ghillean Prance, Tyler Volk, Niles Eldredge, and Abigail Alling, who of course bear no responsibility for any mistakes or any conclusions contained in the paper. Abstract The taxonomy of humans in the teeming world of life forms, has from the beginning of the Theory of Evolution presented one of the most difficult of problems for science. Darwin and Wallace themselves split over this. Darwin opted for a species of primate and Wallace for a difference amounting to a species of a new kingdom. However, a proper taxonomy was probably impossible in their time because the sciences of palaeontology, neurology, ecology, ethnology and archaeology were not available; Darwin was restricted to a choice between dogmatic Biblical and mechanistic world-views. -
Carnival of Evolution #58: Visions of the Evolutionary Future Bradly Alicea Michigan State University
Carnival of Evolution #58: visions of the evolutionary future Bradly Alicea Michigan State University Originally published at: http://syntheticdaisies.blogspot.com on April 1, 2013 (http://syntheticdaisies.blogspot.com/2013/04/carnival-of-evolution-58-visions-of.html) Welcome to Carnival of Evolution! Now with albedo! Introduction What does the future look like? For some, the future is the place of constant progress and a place where dreams become reality. For others, the future is a scary, dystopian place. When actualized, however, future worlds fall somewhere in between these two visions. Can we make accurate projections about the future? As I pointed out in a Synthetic Daisies post from February [1], futurists and technologists have a pretty dismal track record at projecting future scenarios, and often get things notoriously wrong. UPPER LEFT: Ad from the 1982 opening of EPCOT Center, Florida. UPPER RIGHT: Dystopic future city from the movie "Idiocracy" (Inset is the cover of "Future Shock" by Alvin Toffler). BOTTOM LEFT: Bank of England Economic Forecast (circa 2011). BOTTOM RIGHT: New New York, circa 3000 (from the TV show "Futurama"). With visions of the future in mind, this month's Carnival of Evolution (#58) theme is the future of evolution. While a significant component of evolutionary biology involves reconstructing the past [2], we are actually (with error, of course) also predicting the future. Yet can we do any better than futurists or technologists? It is hard to say, and if you have opinions on this I would be glad to hear them. However, this month's CoE will address five themes that may (or may not) help us understand where the complexity of life is headed. -
Fire – and the Ecology of Man, by E. V. Komarek, Sr., Pp
Proceedings: 6th Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conference 1967 Fire-and the Ecology of Man E. V. KOMAREK, SR. Tall Timbers Research Station As I review the past six Annual Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conferences, the 77 very competent papers presented, representing a diversity of disciplines from a large segment of the globe and the many stimulating, inspiring and mind-searching dis cussions generated thereby, I am reminded of the following statement from Dobzhansky's Mankind Evolving (1962): Science is cumulative knowledge. This makes scientific theories relatively impermanent, especially during the epochs when knowl edge piles up something like geometric progression. Scientists should be conscious of the provisional and transient nature of their attainments. Any scientist worth his salt labors to bring about the obsolescence of his own work. Certainly our efforts have added to "cumulative knowledge" in "something like geometric progression." Many of our ideas have grown, changed and continue to evolve, and we all labor to bring about the obsolescence of our own work. Dobzhansky states additionally: Two rival trends vie constantly for influence in science-spe cialization and synthesis. The former usually predominates. Scien tists are specialists; a good specialist is able to master only some fraction of human knowledge. Attempts to synthesis knowl- 143 Proceedings: 6th Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conference 1967 E. V. KOMAREK, SR. edge are, however, indispensible. The need is more keenly felt the more knowledge becomes splintered. Failure -
Introduction to Biology. Lecture 36
Introduction to Biology. Lecture 36 Alexey Shipunov Minot State University May 5, 2017 Shipunov (MSU) BIOL 111 May 5, 2017 1 / 44 Outline 1 Where we are End of Cretaceous ecological crisis Cenozoic era Ecogeography: origin of biomes 2 Origin of us Just another ape 3 Future evolution Dougal Dixon and his “After Man” book Shipunov (MSU) BIOL 111 May 5, 2017 2 / 44 Outline 1 Where we are End of Cretaceous ecological crisis Cenozoic era Ecogeography: origin of biomes 2 Origin of us Just another ape 3 Future evolution Dougal Dixon and his “After Man” book Shipunov (MSU) BIOL 111 May 5, 2017 2 / 44 Outline 1 Where we are End of Cretaceous ecological crisis Cenozoic era Ecogeography: origin of biomes 2 Origin of us Just another ape 3 Future evolution Dougal Dixon and his “After Man” book Shipunov (MSU) BIOL 111 May 5, 2017 2 / 44 Where we are End of Cretaceous ecological crisis Where we are End of Cretaceous ecological crisis Shipunov (MSU) BIOL 111 May 5, 2017 3 / 44 Where we are End of Cretaceous ecological crisis Cretaceous extinction of giant fauna Well, this is me who killed dinosaurs... Shipunov (MSU) BIOL 111 May 5, 2017 4 / 44 Where we are Cenozoic era Where we are Cenozoic era Shipunov (MSU) BIOL 111 May 5, 2017 5 / 44 Where we are Cenozoic era From Paleogene to Quaternary Cenozoic era: Paleogene: starts 66 Mya Includes: Paleocene Eocene Oligocene Neogene: starts 23 Mya Includes: Miocene Pliocene Quaternary: starts 2.5 Mya Includes: Pleistocene Holocene Shipunov (MSU) BIOL 111 May 5, 2017 6 / 44 Where we are Cenozoic era Paleogene Warm,