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The EU Farming Employment: Current Challenges and Future Prospects STUDY Requested by the AGRI committee The EU farming employment: current challenges and future prospects Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies Directorate-General for Internal Policies PE 629.209 – October 2019 EN RESEARCH FOR AGRI COMMITTEE The EU farming employment: current challenges and future prospects Abstract This study outlines the current trends and patterns of farming employment in the EU and discusses possible development paths for the European agricultural labour force. In particular, this study investigates the drivers of and structural changes within agricultural labour markets at regional, national and EU level, building on a range of quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. This document was requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development. AUTHORS ÖIR GmbH: Ambre MAUCORPS, Arndt MÜNCH, Sanja BRKANOVIC, Bernd SCHUH (Research leader) Countryside and Community Research Institute, University of Gloucestershire: Prof. Janet DWYER, Dr. Mauro VIGANI, Dr. Amr KHAFAGY Red2Red Consultores: María COTO SAURAS, Perrine DESCHELLETTE, Andrea LÓPEZ University of Tuscia: Prof. Simone SEVERINI, Dr. Federico ANTONIOLI Case Studies: Roland GAUGITSCH (Austria), Ambre MAUCORPS (France), Arndt MÜNCH (Germany), Dr. John POWELL, Katarina KUBINAKOVA (Ireland), Prof. Simone SEVERINI, Dr. Federico ANTONIOLI (Italy), Martyna DERSZNIAK-NOIRJEAN (Poland), Prof. Cosmin SALASAN (Romania), María COTO SAURAS (Spain) Statistical analysis: Ambre MAUCORPS, Roland GAUGITSCH, Mailin GAUPP-BERGHAUSEN, Chien-Hui HSIUNG, Florian FASCHING (ÖIR GmbH) – Mapping: Roland GAUGITSCH (ÖIR GmbH) With support from: Florian KERINGER (ÖIR GmbH) Research manager: Albert MASSOT Project and publication assistance: Catherine MORVAN Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies, European Parliament LINGUISTIC VERSIONS Original: EN ABOUT THE PUBLISHER To contact the Policy Department or to subscribe to updates on our work for the AGRI Committee please write to: [email protected] Manuscript completed in October 2019 © European Union, 2019 This document is available on the internet in summary with option to download the full text at: http://bit.ly/2qPyjAV This document is available on the internet at: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=IPOL_STU(2019)629209 Further information on research for AGRI by the Policy Department is available at: https://research4committees.blog/AGRI/ Follow us on Twitter: @PolicyAGRI Please use the following reference to cite this study: Schuh, B et al. 2019, Research for AGRI Committee – The EU farming employment: current challenges and future prospects, European Parliament, Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies, Brussels Please use the following reference for in-text citations: Schuh et al. (2019) DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Parliament. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorized, provided the source is acknowledged and the publisher is given prior notice and sent a copy. © Cover image used under licence from Shutterstock.com The EU farming employment: current challenges and future prospects CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 5 LIST OF MAPS 6 LIST OF FIGURES 7 LIST OF TABLES 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 1. AIM AND APPROACH 13 2. EU LEVEL RESEARCH: LITERATURE REVIEW 17 2.1. EU-wide literature review: the changing nature of EU farming employment 18 2.1.1. Introduction 18 2.1.2. Determinants and drivers of EU agricultural labour markets and structural changes 18 2.1.3. Employment characteristics 22 2.2. Structured literature review: impacts of the CAP and theoretical examination of institutional frameworks 23 2.2.1. Introduction 23 2.2.2. Results of the literature review 23 2.2.3. Current and future CAP and employment 29 2.3. Desk research: relations between agricultural policies and EU social initiatives 30 2.3.1. European social dialogue 30 2.3.2. EU social Pillar 31 2.3.3. Europe 2020 strategy 32 2.3.4. Marrakesh Political Declaration 34 2.4. Preliminary answers and new research questions 35 3. EU LEVEL RESEARCH: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND MAPPING 37 3.1. Analysis of historic trends in EU farming employment 37 3.2. EU-wide mapping of current farming employment patterns 45 3.3. Forecast estimation of farming employment in Europe and potential developments of the EU agricultural labour market 54 3.4. Preliminary conclusions and further comparative analysis 58 4. IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS: CASE STUDIES 61 4.1. Regional clustering 61 4.1.1. Clustering principles 61 4.1.2. Clustering indicators 62 4.1.3. Clustering outputs 63 4.2. Selection of Case Study regions 66 3 IPOL | Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies 4.3. Completion of eight Case Studies 67 4.3.1. South-West Oltenia (Romania) 67 4.3.2. Podlaskie (Poland) 70 4.3.3. Campania (Italy) 73 4.3.4. Aragon (Spain) 76 4.3.5. Southern and Eastern region (Ireland) 79 4.3.6. Corsica (France) 83 4.3.7. Upper Austria (Austria) 87 4.3.8. Brandenburg (Germany) 89 5. SYNTHESIS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 93 5.1. Synthesis 93 5.1.1. Key features of the EU agricultural labour force 93 5.1.2. Main drivers of (structural) changes in EU agricultural labour markets 93 5.1.3. Territorial patterns of farming employment and its determinants 93 5.1.4. Prevalent challenges for farming employment in the EU 94 5.1.5. Expected developments/impacts of these challenges 98 5.1.6. Prospects of farming employment in the EU post 2020 100 5.2. Conclusions and recommendations 100 5.2.1. Conclusions 100 5.2.2. Recommendations 101 5.3. Validation of key findings 103 REFERENCES 105 ANNEX A: METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH 113 A.1 Methodological approach to the structured literature review: impacts of the CAP and theoretical examination of institutional frameworks 113 A.2 Methodological approach to forecast estimation 114 A.3 Methodological approach to the clustering exercise 114 ANNEX B: CASE STUDIES (VOLUME II) 117 4 The EU farming employment: current challenges and future prospects LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AGRI European Parliament’s Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development AI Artificial Intelligence AWU Annual Working Unit CAP Common Agricultural Policy CMEF Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (European Commission) EAFRD European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development EP European Parliament ERDF European Regional Development Fund ESD European social dialogue ESF European Social Fund EU European Union EUROSTAT European Statistical Office GDP Gross Domestic Product GVA Gross Value Added MS Member State NUTS Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics OGA Other Gainful Activities OP Operational Programme RDP Rural Developmment Programme RIS3 Research and Innovation Strategies for Smart Specialisation UAA Utilised Agricultural Area 5 IPOL | Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies LIST OF MAPS Map 1: Road-rail accessibility of EU NUTS 2 regions 46 Map 2: Share of the GVA stemming from agriculture in EU NUTS 2 regions 46 Map 3: Share of farm managers with basic or full agricultural training in EU NUTS 2 regions 47 Map 4: Agricultural factor income per AWU in EU NUTS 2 regions (2015) 48 Map 5: Share of family workers in the agricultural labour force in EU NUTS 2 regions 48 Map 6: Share of temporary workers in the agricultural labour force in EU NUTS 2 regions 49 Map 7: Percentage change in the total number of farms in EU Member States between 2010 and 2016 49 Map 8: Percentage change in the total number of farms in EU NUTS 2 regions between 2010 and 2016 50 Map 9: Percentage change in the total number of farms managed by farm managers aged 65 and over in EU NUTS 2 regions between 2010 and 2016 50 Map 10: Percentage change in the total number of farms managed by farm managers aged 35 and under in EU NUTS 2 regions between 2010 and 2016 51 Map 11: Percentage change in the agricultural labour force (directly employed by farm holders) in EU Member States between 2010 and 2016 52 Map 12: Percentage change in the agricultural labour force (directly employed by farm holders) in EU NUTS 2 regions between 2010 and 2016 52 Map 13: Share of farms whose holder spend no time on other gainful activities in EU Member States (2013) 53 Map 14: Share of farms whose holder spend more time on other gainful activities than farming in EU Member States (2013) 53 Map 15: Ten clusters of EU NUTS 2 regions 64 Map 16: The eight case study regions 66 6 The EU farming employment: current challenges and future prospects LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Farm sole holders (in millions AWU) in the EU27 38 Figure 2: Farm holders’ family workers (in millions AWU) in the EU27 38 Figure 3: Regular non-family workers in the EU27 38 Figure 4: Non-regular non-family workers (in millions AWU) in the EU27 38 Figure 5: Labour force directly employed by agricultural holdings (in millions AWU) in the EU27 39 Figure 6: Utilised Agricultural Area in the EU27 (in million hectares) 39 Figure 7: Utilised Agricultural Area in EU Member States (in million hectares) 40 Figure 8: Number of farms (in millions) managed by farmers aged 65 and above: historic trend 41 Figure 9: Number of farms (in millions) managed by farmers aged 34 and below: historic trend 41 Figure 10: Number of farms (in millions) managed by farmers from different age categories in the EU27: historic trend 41 Figure 11: Number of farms (in millions) in EU Member States: historic trend 42 Figure 12: Number of
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