Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1 (June 2010), pp. 17-30 The Water Crisis in Yemen: Causes, Consequences and Solutions Nicole Glass Abstract Yemen, a country located in a dry and semi-arid region of the Middle East, is already facing a severe water crisis. Mostly due to high population growth, misguided agricultural development and the growth of qat, a lack of law enforcement to regulate water use, and a vulnerable climate to climate change, the crisis may soon reach catastrophic levels. Beyond a brief description of the main causes of Yemen’s water crisis, this article also provides a brief overview of the literature, some empirical background, an analysis on the consequences, and a discussion of some of the proposed solutions to Yemen’s water crisis. I. Introduction Yemen is a country with one of the highest rates of population growth in the world. It is also the country with the highest rate of exhaustion of water sources in the Middle East. Sana’a is the only capital city in the world that may run out of water within the next decade. The combination of high population growth and exhaustion of water has contributed to a severe water crisis in Yemen that may be one of the most catastrophic in the world. Unless immediate action is taken, Yemen may experience mass fatalities caused by dehydration of its people. Abdul Kareem Al-Eryani, a former Prime Minister of Yemen, said: “I am very pessimistic, frankly, for the next two to three years. Nature and man are squeezing Yemen. And I think this alarm bell should ring in various corners around us and in the United States as well.”1 The World Bank (2006) described Yemen as the single largest development challenge in the Middle East. Since the 1970s, Yemen has undergone a number of rapid social and economic changes that the government could not control. Many of these changes have led to water shortages. 1 Kenyon (2008), last paragraph of news report. 17 According to Al-Asbahi (2005), Yemen’s total renewable water resource amounts to 2.5 billion cubic meters per year, while the total demand is estimated to be 3.4 billion cubic meters per year, with 900 million cubic meters per year being covered from deep aquifers. Hence, ground water aquifers decline one to seven meters each year, with very rare recharge due to droughts that have been intensified by climate change. Given that the consumption of water is exceeding the rate of natural recharge, it is only a matter of time before the existing groundwater is all used up. This article is about the causes, effects and proposed solutions to the Yemen water crisis. The next section provides a brief overview of the literature. The third section provides some empirical background on Yemen’s water shortage. The subsequent three sections review and discuss respectively the causes, consequences and some of the proposed solutions to Yemen’s water crisis. The last section provides some conclusions. II. Literature Review Besides a variety of news reports, there is very little literature covering Yemen’s water crisis. Van der Gun (2009) looks specifically at Yemen as an example of how climate change impacts alluvial aquifers in arid regions. The Human Development Report 2006 on the global water crisis also provides various references to Yemen, though without making Yemen a focal point.2 The most comprehensive information on water resources in Yemen has been provided by Al-Asbahi (2005). He introduces the topic by illustrating how the scarcity of water in Yemen has become a water crisis and describes then the use and development of Yemen’s water resources. Al-Asbahi provides also detailed information on the institutional background of water resources management in Yemen and discusses Yemen’s water resources strategies, policies and legislations. He proposes various solutions to the water crisis, including rainwater harvesting and desalination of seawater as a resource. A number of news organizations have published articles about the water crisis in Yemen. Most of them provide information on the causes and impact of the crisis. Some of the news reports also propose some solutions. The following news reports have been some of the most recent ones. • Kasinof (2009) provides a report published by ABC news entitled “Yemen Water Crisis Fuels Conflict.” This report discusses how the lack of water is causing conflicts in Yemen – from demonstrations, to small riots, to an intensified war between the government and a group of rebels. Kasinof (2009) also warns that if the water crisis is not solved, current conflicts may spin out of control, and new conflicts may arise. When it comes down to survival, people will fight to stay alive, and that can cause anything from an argument to a war. • United Press International (UPI) Science News (2009) provides information on the tensions and conflicts induced by water shortages, and gives statistics on the severity of the crisis. “Water is definitely a security problem in the region,” Samir Tariq, director of the Orient Center for Strategic Studies, told UPI. 2 See United Nations Development Program (UNDP) (2006). 18 • Kenyon (2008) provides interviews with the Yemeni population about the deterioration of plants and agriculture in the country and other physical changes that have occurred as a result of decreased water availability. • Carter (2009) provides information on how the Obama administration is willing to help Yemen financially – but only if Yemen cooperates with the United States in relation to capturing terrorists. • Lyon (2009) and Hill (2009) give a general overview of the situation in Yemen and particularly Sana’a, the capitol city that is most affected by the water crisis and destined to run dry in a decade unless immediate preventative action is taken. • Al-Omari (2008) and especially Wardam (2009) discuss Yemen’s climate vulnerability to global warming, which severely worsens the water crisis. III. Empirical Background Yemen is located in a dry and semi-arid region of the Middle East, where the average annual rainfall ranges from 500 to 800 mm in the high lands, 40 to 100 mm in the coastal areas and 50 mm in the desert areas (Al-Omari, 2008). Unlike other Middle-Eastern countries like Lebanon, Syria and Egypt, Yemen has no rivers. It depends on rainwater as well as underground water. Yemen’s water shortage is far worse than that of any other country in the Middle East. The average person in the Middle East has 1,250 millimeter (mm) of water per year. The average person in Yemen has 140 mm of water per year. Figure based on WDI. Water availability in Yemen is decreasing every year. The World Bank reports that in the year 1990, 71 percent of the Yemeni population had access to water. In 2004, this figure decreased to 67 percent. This does not follow the pattern of water availability in the region (Middle East and North Africa), where the water availability has been increasing from 87.5 percent of the population in 1990 to 89.5 percent in 2004. Yemen’s water availability per capita is the lowest in the region as well as in the world. In Yemen, urban areas have greater access to water than rural areas. However, the decrease in water availability is more drastic in urban areas. Water availability in urban areas decreased from 84 percent in 1990 to 71 percent in 2004. In rural areas, this figure decreased from 68 to 65 percent. At the present time, cities still have more water availability than rural areas – but at the rate of decreasing availability, this will soon change (World Bank). Table 1 shows the sectoral use of water from 1990 to 2010. The table shows that water used for agriculture and irrigation has increased and is expected to increase further from 1990 to 2010. It is also increasing for domestic, urban and rural purposes and industrial and mining purposes. Overall, water use has increased since 1990 and is expected to increase. In 1990, total water use was 2,799 million cubic meters per year. In 2010 it was 3,970 million cubic meters per year – but since availability is declining and population is increasing, Yemen may soon run dry. 19 Table 1: Use of Water for a Period of 30 Years (1990-2010) in Different Water Use Sectors (million cubic meters per year) Water Use 1990 2000 2005 2010 (estimated) (estimated) Agriculture/Irrigation 2,600 3,145 3,235 3,328 Domestic/Urban/Rural 168 210 265 552 Industrial & Mining 31 45 65 90 Total 2,799 3,400 3,565 3,970 Source: Al-Asbahi (2005), Table 1 (p. 4), based on data provided by the TNO Institute of Applied Geo-science. IV. Causes of the Water Crisis There are five key causes of Yemen’s water crisis: (1) high population growth, (2) misguided agricultural development and policies, (3) the use of water to grow qat, (4) a lack of law enforcement to regulate water use, and (5) a high vulnerability to climate change. IV.1. Population Growth Yemen has one of the highest population growths in the world – and with more people comes the need for more water. Since 1990, the Yemeni population has nearly doubled. The World Bank estimates that in 1990, the population was 12.3 million. The population today is 23.1 million. The population is increasing most rapidly in cities; hence, water availability is decreasing most rapidly in cities. Figure 1 shows the population density of Yemen. It is evident that the majority of the population is clustered in cities like Sana’a, Aden and Ta’izz.