European Elections in the UK Media Briefing 7th May 2014 UKIP and the 2014 European Parliament elections Dr Philip Lynch (
[email protected]) & Dr Richard Whitaker (
[email protected]) University of Leicester UKIP and the 2014 European Elections Philip Lynch (
[email protected], @drphiliplynch ) and Richard Whitaker (
[email protected], @rickwhitaker ) Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester UKIP go into the 2014 European elections in a far stronger position than they did five years earlier. The crucial differences are first, that UKIP have not experienced the decline in support in general election polling that they normally do after a European election. On the contrary, they are now consistently placed in third position in polls of general election vote intentions. Second, their ratings in polls of European election vote intention are some ten points higher on average than they were in the run up to the 2009 contest for seats in the European Parliament (EP). Third, they have more than double the number of members and a much better, even if still small base in local councils having secured 147 seats in the 2013 local elections. Fourth, while they have benefitted in the past from Conservative supporters lending UKIP their vote, they are in an even better position to do so this time around given that the Tories are now in government. On top of that, if UKIP’s campaign to win even more support from working class voters is successful, they will make headway in areas where Labour are traditionally strong. The presence of the Liberal Democrats in government alongside the collapse of the BNP add to the auspicious conditions for UKIP in 2014.