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Is Counterproliferation Compatible with Nonproliferation?: Rethinking the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative

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Is Counterproliferation Compatible with Nonproliferation?: Rethinking the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1995-06 Is counterproliferation compatible with nonproliferation?: rethinking the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative McColl, Angus A. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/31463 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS IS COUNTERPROLIFERATION COMPATIBLE WITH NONPROLIFERATION? RETHINKING THE DEFENSE COUNTERPROLIFERATION INITIATIVE by Angus A. McColl June, 1995 Thesis Co-Advisors: Peter R. Lavoy John Arquilla Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 19960116 044 mt&m ra^crr REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information ,s estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions searching• existing data sources. gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and review.ng the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or änv othe'r aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services. Directorate^ inf5rrn«Sn S-S r - V -a*ect-?f ,h,s Oavis Highwav.Suite, 204, Arlington, ^22202-4302.,"»^ 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 1995 Master's Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS IS COUNTERPROLIFERATION COMPATIBLE WITH NONPROLIFERATION^ RETHINKING THE DEFENSE COUNTERPROLIFERATION INITIATIVE 6. AUTHOR(S) McColl, Angus A. 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND AODRESS(ES) PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93940-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT "" 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited. 13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 words) This thesis examines the compatibility of the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative (CPI) with the nuclear nonproliferation regime. The idea of using military means to combat the acquisition and use of weapons of mass destruction by regional adversaries has created controversy from its inception. Skeptics worried that counterproliferation would undermine nonproliferation, rather than enhance it as the Defense Department claimed. This research examines how counterproliferatioi affects the various treaties and policies that make up the nonproliferation regime Then, it examines each element of the CPI, considering its purpose, progress made to date, and the operational limitations which are already coming to light. Finally, and most importantly, it examines the tensions which counterproliferation has created, not only with nonproliferation, but for U.S. foreign policy as a whole. It concludes that counterproliferation is compatible with nonproliferation and provides recommendations to help provide the United States with the military means to combat proliferation, while ensuring a strong and enduring nonprolifera- tion regime. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES Weapons of mass destruction, nonproliferation, counterpro- 185 liferation, arms control. 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT OF REPORT OF THIS PAGE OF ABSTRACT unclassified unclassified unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 298-102 11 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited IS COUNTERPROLIFERATION COMPATIBLE WITH NONPROLIFERATION? RETHINKING THE DEFENSE COUNTERPROLIFERATION INITIATIVE Angus A. McColl Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1982 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL (June, 1995) Author: Angus A. McColl Approved by: »ID/-.«-Peter™. R.T> Lavoy,T „„„_. ThesisTn.__i Go-Adviser John ArqUilla, Thesis Co-Advisor Thomas C. Bruneau, Chairman Department of National Security Affairs in IV ABSTRACT This thesis examines the compatibility of the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative (CPI) with the nuclear nonproliferation regime. The idea of using military means to combat the acquisition and use of weapons of mass destruction by regional adversaries has created controversy from its inception. Skeptics worried that counterproliferation would undermine nonproliferation, rather than enhance it as the Defense Department claimed. This research examines how counterproliferation affects the various treaties and policies that make up the nonproliferation regime. Then, it examines each element of the CPI, considering its purpose, progress made to date, and the operational limitations which are already coming to light. Finally, and most importantly, it examines the tensions which counterproliferation has created, not only with nonproliferation, but for U.S. foreign policy as a whole. It concludes that counterproliferation is compatible with nonproliferation, and provides recommendations to help provide the United States with the military means to combat proliferation, while ensuring a strong and enduring nonproliferation regime. Äccesion For NTIS CRA&I DTIC TAB Unannounced D Justification By Distribution / Availability Codes Avail and /or Dist Special Ifld v VI TABLE OF CONTENTS I. AN INITIATIVE WITH INHERENT CONTRADICTIONS 1 A. THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT STAKES ITS TURF 4 B. FRAMING THE DEBATE: COUNTERPROLIFERATION ARGUMENTS AND COUNTERARGUMENTS 7 1. The Justification for the CPI 8 2. Enforcing the Nonproliferation Regime 10 3. United States Leadership in Nonproliferation 12 4. The CPI and U.S. Nuclear Deterrence 13 5. The Lessons of the Gulf War „ 14 6. A Handful of Rogues 16 C. SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY 17 D. STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS 18 II. CHARACTERIZING THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME 21 A. OVERVIEW OF THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME 21 B. THE IAEA STATUTE 26 1. Its Role And Function 26 2. The Nature of the IAEA Statute 27 3. Legal Ramifications of the IAEA Statute 27 4. Effectiveness of the IAEA Statute 28 5. Future Viability of the IAEA 29 6. Vulnerability of the IAEA „. 29 7. How the CPI Could Enhance the IAEA 30 8. How the CPI Could Undermine the IAEA 30 C. THE NONPROLIFERATION TREATY (NPT) 31 1. Its Role and Function 31 2. The Nature of the NPT *. 32 3. Legal Ramifications of the NPT 33 4. Effectiveness of the NPT 34 5. Future Viability of the NPT 34 6. Vulnerability of the NPT 35 7. How the CPI Could Enhance the NPT ! 36 8. How the CPI Could Undermine the NPT 37 Vll D. NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREE ZONES 39 1. Their Role and Function 39 2. The Nature of NWFZs 41 3. Legal Ramifications of NWFZs 42 a. The Latin American Nuclear Weapons Free Zone . 42 b. The South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone 43 4. Effectiveness of NWFZs 44 5. Future Viability of NWFZs 45 6. Vulnerability of NWFZs 46 7. How the CPI Could Enhance NWFZs 46 8. How the CPI Could Undermine NWFZs „46 E. EXPORT CONTROLS 47 1. Their Role and Function 47 2. The Nature of Export Controls 47 3. Legal Ramifications of Export Controls 48 4. Effectiveness of Export Controls .49 5. Future Viability of Export Controls 49 6. Vulnerability of Export Controls 50 7. How the CPI Could Enhance Export Controls 51 8. How the CPI Could Undermine Export Controls .51 F. SECURITY ASSURANCES 52 1. Their Role and Function 52 2. The Nature of Security Assurances 52 3. Legal Ramifications of Security Assurances 53 4. Effectiveness and Stability of Security Assurances 54 5. Future Viability of Security Assurances 54 6. Vulnerability of Security Assurances 55 7. How the CPI Could Enhance Security Assurances 55 8. How the CPI Could Undermine Security Assurances 56 G. CONCLUSIONS REGARDING THE CPI'S IMPACT ON THE NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION REGIME 56 in. THE EVOLUTION OF THE COUNTERPROLIFERATION INITIATIVE . 59 A. A CONTROVERSIAL ANNOUNCEMENT BEGETS CONFUSION 59 B. THE INTELLECTUAL HISTORY OF COUNTERPROLIFERATION 71 Vlll C. CHARACTERIZING THE FIVE POINTS OF THE CPI 76 1. The New Mission 77 2. What We Buy 79 3. How We Fight Wars 81 4. Intelligence 82 5. International Cooperation 86 D. CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE COUNTERPROLIFERATIÖN INITIATIVE 88 1. Department of Defense Claims 88 2. Progress Towards the Five Points 90 3. Big Hurdles 91 IV. THE TENSIONS OF COUNTERPROLIFERATIÖN 93 A. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ALLISON'S MODELS 93 B. INTERAGENCY TENSIONS 96 1. The Bureaucratic Response to the President's Call 96 2. Interagency Bureaucratic Tensions 98 3. Tensions Within the Department of Defense 100 4. NSC Management Reduces Tensions 104 C. INTERGOVERNMENTAL TENSIONS 104 1. The Defense Department as a Unitary Actor 104 2. Official Foreign Perspectives 105 D. STATE-SOCIETAL TENSIONS - THE NON-GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS 112 1. Non-government organizations and public opinion 112 2. Tensions Between Counterproliferation and Nonproliferation 113 3. Other Related Tensions 121 E. CONCLUSIONS REGARDING THE TENSIONS CAUSED BY THE CPI 129 1. Bureaucratic Tensions are Dissipating 129 2. Intergovernmental Tensions and Emerging Consensus ... 130 3. The NGOs are Candid But Often Irrelevant 131 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 133 A. ANCHOR POINTS FOR COUNTERPROLIFERATION POLICY .. 134 IX B. RESEARCH FINDINGS 139 C. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 143 BIBLIOGRAPHY 147 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION
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