Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Towards a Nuclear-Weapon-Free World? Sverre Lodgaard
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Nuclear Disarmament and Non- Proliferation This book examines the current debate on nuclear non- proliferation and disarma- ment, notably the international non- proliferation regime and how to implement its disarmament provisions. Discussing the requirements of a new international consensus on nuclear dis- armament and non- proliferation, this book builds on the three pillars of the nuclear non- proliferation treaty (NPT): non- proliferation, disarmament and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. It reviews the impact of Cold War and post- Cold War policies on current disarmament initiatives and analyses contemporary proliferation problems: how to deal with the states that never joined the NPT (India, Pakistan and Israel); how states that have been moving towards nuclear weapons have been brought back to non- nuclear-weapon status; and, in particu- lar, how to deal with Iran and North Korea. The analysis centres on the relation- ship between disarmament and non- proliferation in an increasingly multi- centric world involving China and India as well as the US, the European powers and Russia. It concludes with a description and discussion of three different worlds without nuclear weapons and their implications for nuclear- disarmament policies. This book will be of great interest to all students of arms control, strategic studies, war and conflict studies, and IR/security studies in general. Sverre Lodgaard is a Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Oslo. Routledge Global Security Studies Series editors: Aaron Karp, Regina Karp and Terry Teriff 1 Nuclear Proliferation and International Security Sverre Lodgaard and Morten Bremer Maerli 2 Global Insurgency and the Future of Armed Conflict Debating fourth-generation warfare Terry Terriff, Aaron Karp and Regina Karp 3 Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction Responding to the challenge Edited by Ian Bellany 4 Globalization and WMD Proliferation Edited by James A. Russell and Jim J. Wirtz 5 Power Shifts, Strategy and War Declining states and international conflict Dong Sun Lee 6 Energy Security and Global Politics The militarization of resource management Edited by Daniel Moran and James A. Russell 7 US Nuclear Weapons Policy After the Cold War Russians, “rogues” and domestic division Nick Ritchie 8 Security and Post- Conflict Reconstruction Dealing with fighters in the aftermath of war Edited by Robert Muggah 9 Network Centric Warfare and Coalition Operations The new military operating systems Paul T. Mitchell 10 American Foreign Policy and the Politics of Fear Threat inflation since 9/11 Edited by A. Trevor Thrall and Jane K. Cramer 11 Risk, Global Governance and Security The other war on terror Yee- Kuang Heng and Kenneth McDonagh 12 Nuclear Weapons and Cooperative Security in the 21st Century The new disorder Stephen J. Cimbala 13 Political Economy and Grand Strategy A neoclassical realist view Mark R. Brawley 14 Iran and Nuclear Weapons Protracted conflict and proliferation Saira Khan 15 US Strategy in Africa AFRICOM, terrorism and security challenges Edited by David J. Francis 16 Great Powers and Strategic Stability in the 21st Century Competing visions of world order Edited by Graeme P. Herd 17 The Globalisation of NATO Intervention, security and identity Veronica M. Kitchen 18 International Conflict in the Asia- Pacific Patterns, consequences and management Jacob Bercovitch and Mikio Oishi 19 Nuclear Proliferation and International Order Challenges to the Non-Proliferation Treaty Edited by Olav Njølstad 20 Nuclear Disarmament and Non- Proliferation Towards a nuclear-weapon-free world? Sverre Lodgaard Nuclear Disarmament and Non- Proliferation Towards a nuclear-weapon-free world? Sverre Lodgaard First published 2011 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2010. To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk. © 2011 Sverre Lodgaard All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging- in-Publication Data A catalog record has been requested for this book ISBN 0-203-84259-6 Master e-book ISBN ISBN13: 978-0-415-58634-4 (hbk) ISBN13: 978-0-203-84259-1 (ebk) Contents Abbreviations ix Introduction 1 PART I Power shifts and nuclear weapons 7 1 Power shifts and nuclear weapons 9 PART II The legacies of nuclear history and the requirements of a new consensus on non- proliferation and disarmament 41 2 The first nuclear era 43 3 Post- Cold War doctrines 53 4 A global consensus on non- proliferation and disarmament 76 PART III Proliferation problems and the role of nuclear disarmament 93 5 The three-state problem 95 6 Rollback experiences 115 7 Challenge from within: the case of Iran 133 viii Contents 8 How to understand North Korea 151 9 The relationship between disarmament and non-proliferation 168 PART IV Towards a nuclear- weapon-free world 193 10 Towards a nuclear-weapon-free world 195 Notes 223 References 239 Index 253 Abbreviations ABACC Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials ABM anti- ballistic missile ALCM air- launched cruise missile ANWFZ African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations BMD ballistic missile defence BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, China BWC Biological Weapons Convention CBM confidence- building measures CD Conference on Disarmament CIA Central Intelligence Agency CPI Counter- Proliferation Initiative CTBT Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty CWC Chemical Weapons Convention DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea E3 Britain, France and Germany ECO Economic Cooperation Organisation EU European Union Euratom European Atomic Energy Community FMCT Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty G8 Group of eight leading industrial countries GCC Gulf Cooperation Council HEU highly enriched uranium HWR heavy- water reactor IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IBSA India, Brazil, South Africa Dialogue Forum ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile ICJ International Court of Justice INF Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces INFCIRC Information Circular (IAEA) IRGC Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps KEDO Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organisation LEU low- enriched uranium x Abbreviations LWR light- water reactor MAD mutually assured destruction MTCR missile technology control regime NAM non- aligned movement NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NFU no- first-use NGO non- governmental organisation NIE National Intelligence Estimate NNWS non- nuclear-weapon state(s) NPR Nuclear Posture Review NPT Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group NWFW nuclear-weapon-free world NWFZ nuclear-weapon-free zone NWS nuclear-weapon state(s) P5 five permanent members of UN Security Council PASDARAN Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps PLA People’s Liberation Army (China) PSI Proliferation Security Initiative RevCon Review Conference (NPT) ROK Republic of [South] Korea SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks SDI Strategic Defense Initiative SLBM submarine- launched ballistic missile SLCM sea- launched cruise missile SLOC Sea Line of Communication SORT Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty START Strategic Arms Reduction Talks SWF Sovereign Wealth Fund TLAM/N Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missile/Nuclear TRR Teheran research reactor UNGA United Nations General Assembly UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research UNMOVIC UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission UNSC United Nations Security Council UNSCOM United Nations Special Commission (Iraq) VCLT Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties WMD weapons of mass destruction WMDFZ weapons- of-mass- destruction-free zone WTO World Trade Organisation Introduction When the Cold War drew to an end, the superpower leaders offered a vision of a world without nuclear weapons, in all earnest. They were heavily criticised both by their own establishments and by others, and the world was taken by surprise. Secretary of State George Shultz met the critics and proponents of status quo asking, “What’s so good about a world where you can be wiped out in thirty minutes?” On the twentieth anniversary of the 1986 Reagan–Gorbachev summit in Reykjavik, a group of former American statesmen revived the vision of a nuclear- weapon-free world (NWFW). The call was followed up by Barack Obama and leaders of other countries. In many parts of the world, states are waiting to see what comes of it. Elimination of nuclear weapons has been proposed before – the Baruch plan of 1946, the McCloy–Zorin proposal of 1961, the Reagan– Gorbachev attempt in Reykjavik in 1986, Rajiv Gandhi’s plan and plea before the UN General Assembly in 1988 – and those initiatives were short-lived. Will it fizzle out this time, too? Will the interests tied to nuclear weapon complexes hit back and reaffirm the relevance of nuclear arms? Mostly, other countries have not been negative, but