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Climate Change and Coastal Human Settlements: Barbados and Guyana

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Climate Change and Coastal Human Settlements: Barbados and Guyana Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean LIMITED LC/CAR/L.326 22 October 2011 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE COASTAL AND HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SECTOR IN BARBADOS __________ This document has been reproduced without formal editing. i Acknowledgement The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean wishes to acknowledge the assistance of Maurice Mason, consultant, in the preparation of this report. ii Table of contents I. THE INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 A. OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................................... 1 B. OBJECTIVE .......................................................................................................................... 1 C. GENERAL METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH ......................................................................... 2 II. MANIFESTATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ......................................................................... 3 A. SEA LEVEL RISE ................................................................................................................. 3 B. CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITION ..................................................................................... 5 1 .Projection for the Atlantic Storm ............................................................................ 6 C. CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION .............................................................................................. 7 III. VULNERABILITY METHODOLOGY ................................................................................... 8 A. Literature Review ................................................................................................... 8 B.Methodology to be applied ...................................................................................... 9 C. Estimates of Exposure ............................................................................................ 9 D. Value of Exposed Assets Methodology ............................................................... 10 E. IPCC SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS ................................................................................. 11 1 .Climate Change Scenarios .................................................................................... 11 IV. OVERVIEW OF BARBADIAN ECONOMY ....................................................................... 11 A. Economy ............................................................................................................... 12 B. Social Characteristics and Demography ............................................................... 12 V. LOW ELEVATION COASTAL ZONE AND CLIMATE CHANGE .................................... 15 A. PHYSICAL ASSETS IN LECZ ............................................................................................. 19 1. Socioeconomic ...................................................................................................... 19 2. Road network at risk ............................................................................................. 20 3 .Shipping Port in Bridgetown ................................................................................. 20 4. Tourism ................................................................................................................. 21 5. Light and Power .................................................................................................... 22 iii 6. Human settlements ................................................................................................ 23 7. Aggregate physical assets exposed ........................................................................ 24 B. NATURAL CAPITAL AND CLIMATE CHANGE .................................................................... 25 1. Valuing beach erosion via Benefit Transfer methodology .................................... 29 2. Freshwater shortage ............................................................................................... 31 3. Coastal ecosystems ................................................................................................ 31 4. Valuation via Benefit Transfer .............................................................................. 35 C. FINANCING OPTION .......................................................................................................... 38 VI. VULNERABILITY PROJECTIONS ..................................................................................... 39 A. EXPOSURE ESTIMATES ..................................................................................................... 40 B. TRENDS IN EXPOSED POPULATION................................................................................... 44 VII. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ................................................................................. 46 A. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................. 46 B. THE PHILOSOPHY OF ADAPTATION .................................................................................. 47 VIII. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ................................................................................ 49 A. INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK .......................................................................................... 50 1. The Barbados Coastal Management Plan .............................................................. 50 2. Residual Vulnerability Management ..................................................................... 52 B. LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK .............................................................................................. 54 1. Marine Pollution Control Act 1998 ....................................................................... 54 2. Fisheries Act 1993 ................................................................................................. 54 3. Marine Areas Preservation and Enhancement Act (1976) .................................... 55 4. Barbados Territorial Waters Act (1977) ................................................................ 55 5. Marine Boundaries and Jurisdiction Act (1978): .................................................. 55 6. Defense Act (1979): .............................................................................................. 56 7. Shipping Act (1994): ............................................................................................. 56 8. Town and Country Planning Act (TCPA) of 1985:............................................... 56 iv C. ENGINEERING STRUCTURES ............................................................................................. 57 1. Rockley to Drill Hall – Waterfront Improvement (US$7.9 million) ..................... 60 2. Woman‟s Bay (Silver Sands) – Headland protection – US$1.2 million ............... 61 3. Crane Beach, St. Phillips – Restoration and Enhancement (US$ 2.5 million) ...... 61 4. Holetown Beach improvement (US$700,000) ...................................................... 61 5. Welches Beach improvement (US$2.5 million) .................................................... 61 6. Walkers Savannah – Dune Restoration (US$0.5 million) ..................................... 61 IX. CBA OF ADAPATATION STRATEGY ............................................................................... 62 A. BENEFIT OF ADAPTATION ................................................................................................. 62 B. COST OF ADAPTATION ...................................................................................................... 64 1. Major Project/Event estimates............................................................................... 65 C. BENEFIT COST ANALYSIS................................................................................................. 65 X. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................................... 66 A. OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................................ 66 B. POLICY DIRECTION ........................................................................................................... 66 XI. CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................... 68 A. SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................ 68 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................. 70 v List of figures Figure 1: Average Sea Level Rise ...................................................................................... 5 Figure 2: Atlantic Storms .................................................................................................... 6 Figure 3: Trends in Atlantic Storms ................................................................................... 7 Figure 4: Flowchart of the Methodology ........................................................................... 9 Figure 5: Bridgetown Barbados ........................................................................................ 11 Figure 6: Population Density ...........................................................................................
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