Military and Strategic Affairs Military and Strategic Military and Strategic Affairs Volume 8 | No. 1 | July 2016 Volume 8 Volume The Challenges Facing the Israel Defense Forces, 2015–2016 Gadi Eisenkot Principles of the Israeli Political-Military Discourse | Based on the Recent IDF Strategy Document No. 1 No. Kobi Michael and Shmuel Even Information-Sharing Challenges in an Intra-Sectorial Environment | July 2016 Gabi Siboni and Hadas Klein The Israeli Home Front Command: Missions, Challenges, and Future Prospects Meir Elran The Death of Human Intelligence: How Human Intelligence Has Been Minimized Since the 1960s Bradley A. Lewis The Khorasan Group Ariel Koch Combating Terrorism: Socioeconomic Issues, Boko Haram, and Insecurity in the North-East Region of Nigeria Oluwaseun Bamidele המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITYc STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE bd CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES ISSN 2307-193X (print) • E-ISSN 2307-8634 (online) Military and Strategic Affairs Volume 8 | No. 1 | July 2016 CONTENTS Editor’s Note | 3 The Challenges Facing the Israel Defense Forces, 2015–2016 | 5 Gadi Eisenkot Principles of the Israeli Political-Military Discourse Based on the Recent IDF Strategy Document | 19 Kobi Michael and Shmuel Even Information-Sharing Challenges in an Intra-Sectorial Environment | 41 Gabi Siboni and Hadas Klein The Israeli Home Front Command: Missions, Challenges, and Future Prospects | 59 Meir Elran The Death of Human Intelligence: How Human Intelligence Has Been Minimized Since the 1960s | 75 Bradley A. Lewis The Khorasan Group | 91 Ariel Koch Combating Terrorism: Socioeconomic Issues, Boko Haram, and Insecurity in the North-East Region of Nigeria | 109 Oluwaseun Bamidele The purpose of Military and Strategic Affairs is to stimulate Military and and enrich the public debate on military issues relating to Strategic Affairs Israel’s national security. Military and Strategic Affairs is a refereed journal published three times a year within the framework of the Military and Strategic Affairs Program at the Institute for National Security Studies. Articles are written by INSS researchers and guest contributors. The views presented here are those of the authors alone. The Institute for National Security Studies is a public benefit company. Editor in Chief: Amos Yadlin Editor: Gabi Siboni Editorial Board: Eitan Shamir, Oded Eran, Zaki Shalom Journal Coordinator: Hadas Klein Editorial Advisory Board • Myriam Dunn Cavelty, Swiss Federal • Jeffrey A. Larsen, Science Applications Institute of Technology Zurich, Switzerland International Corporation, US • Frank J. Cilluffo, George Washington • James Lewis, Center for Strategic and University, US International Studies, US • Stephen J. Cimbala, Penn State • Theo Neethling, University of the Free University, US State, South Africa • Rut Diamint, Universidad Torcuato Di • John Nomikos, Research Institute for Tella, Argentina European and American Studies, • Maria Raquel Freire, University of Greece Coimbra, Portugal • T.V. Paul, McGill University, Canada • Metin Heper, Bilkent University, Turkey • Glen Segell, Securitatem Vigilate, Ireland • Peter Viggo Jakobson, Royal Danish • Bruno Tertrais, Fondation pour la Defence College, Denmark Recherché Strategique, France • Sunjoy Joshi, Observer Research • James J. Wirtz, Naval Postgraduate Foundation, India School, US • Efraim Karsh, King’s College London, • Ricardo Israel Zipper, Universidad United Kingdom Autónoma de Chile, Chile • Kai Michael Kenkel, Pontifical Catholic • Daniel Zirker, University of Waikato, University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil New Zealand Graphic Design: Michal Semo-Kovetz, Yael Bieber, Tel Aviv University Graphic Design Studio Printing: Elinir The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) 40 Haim Levanon • POB 39950 • Tel Aviv 6997556 • Israel Tel: +972-3-640-0400 • Fax: +972-3-744-7590 • E-mail: [email protected] Military and Strategic Affairs is published in English and Hebrew. The full text is available on the Institute’s website: www.inss.org.il © 2016. All rights reserved. ISSN 2307-193X (print) • E-ISSN 2307-8634 (online) Editor’s Note Dear Readers, This year marks the eighth year of publication of the journal Military and Strategic Affairs. Over the years, we published articles that addressed diverse topics. With the evolution of knowledge of cyberspace and the increasing number of requests by readers and authors alike to engage in this topic, we began publishing articles addressing cyber technology, gradually expanding in number and scope in Military and Strategic Affairs. At the Institute of National Security Studies, we have been encouraged by the evolving knowledge and burgeoning activities in the cyber sector both in Israel and across the globe. As a result, we have decided to shift the focus of the journal and to publish articles relating to the cyber sector. The name of the journal will be changed to Cyber: Intelligence and Security. Therefore, this edition will be the last edition of Military and Strategic Affairs. Considering its new focus, the journal will invite authors and readers from diverse spheres involving the cyber sector, including those in policy and government, the military, intelligence, economics, law and, of course, those developing and providing cyber solutions, as well as the industries seeking such solutions. All of these are extremely important to developing knowledge and shaping the discourse about the cyber sector. We at the Institute of National Security Studies hope that this shift in focus will be welcomed, so that we may continue to strengthen research in this critical field and stimulate informed public debate on the entire spectrum of activities in cyberspace. Sincerely, Gabi Siboni Editor Military and Strategic Affairs | Volume 8 | No. 1 | July 2016 3 The Challenges Facing the Israel Defense Forces, 2015–2016 Gadi Eisenkot The challenges facing the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the foreseeable future are composed of three main factors. The first is Israel’s rapidly changing strategic environment. The nuclear deal between Iran and the superpowers and the subsequent lifting of the sanctions against Iran constitute a strategic turning point for the major threat that the IDF had confronted over the past decade. The crumbling of the old order in the Middle East, existing since the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916, as well as the weakening of the state framework over the past four to five years, illustrates the region’s instability, which will continue to characterize it for many years to come. In addition, the phenomenon of the Islamic State and global jihad has become a major moving force in the Middle East. The IDF General Staff began discussing this challenge in late 2013 and early 2014. The conflict in our region between Sunnis and Shi’ites, which has found expression recently in the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia, joined the historic struggle among the superpowers for influence in the Middle East. The Soviet Union was involved with the Arab states that surround Israel until the Yom Kippur War. The United States operated for a brief time in Lebanon in 1958 and again in 1983. Currently, both superpowers are active in the region as part of an ongoing operation to defeat the Islamic State - an event of great significance for the State of Israel and for the IDF. The second factor that influences the IDF’s capabilities and the use of force over the short term is the operative environment in which it works. Over the past decade, we have learned from experience how tactical incidents develop into battle and even into war. The events in Syria; the explosives This essay is an edited transcript of the Chief of Staff’s speech at the annual conference of the Institute for National Security Studies in January 2016. Military and Strategic Affairs | Volume 8 | No. 1 | July 2016 5 GADI Eisenkot | THE CHALLENGES Facing THE Israel DEFENSE Forces, 2015–2016 6 that Hezbollah plants along the road on Mount Dov; the explosives used against the IDF in the Gaza Strip; and the wave of terrorism of recent months make us realize all the more how narrow the space is between tactics and strategy, and how tactical incidents are liable to develop into events that have strategic significance for the State of Israel. After a decade-long lull in suicide terrorism, which until 2005 claimed the lives of 1,178 civilians and soldiers and wounded more than 15,000 people, we have been facing a renewed escalation of terror over the past several months. | Volume 8 | No. 1 | July 2016 8 | No. Volume | The IDF’s mission in this context is to build up its strength and adapt, given that the IDF could be put to the test within a very brief time frame, and that the challenges it will encounter in another decade will be even more complex than the already difficult ones of today. Still, the considerable Strategic Affairs and dangers contain opportunities as well. The third factor is the internal social environment in the State of Israel Military and the wish to change national priorities. The phenomenon, which began in the summer of 2011 with the slogan “The people demand social justice,” expressed a desire to direct resources to needs other than security. Israelis have expressed this wish daily in discussions about the cost of security within the financial pages of every national newspaper, as well as in a number of violent instances. This wish was also manifested by the establishment of a committee to examine how priorities could be changed and the costs of security reduced. One consequence of this phenomenon is that the IDF operates without a multi-year plan. It is difficult to optimize security and the military without a well-organized and well-reasoned plan, which facilitates the development of the IDF’s strength, existence, preparedness, human resources, and other components of the army’s work. The past four years were characterized by a defense budget that had a shortfall of five to eight billion shekels between the base budget and the actual expenditure at the end of the year.