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September 1974

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September 1974 ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC SECURITY September 1974 An Employment Security Publication PREFACE The purpose and objective of this semiannual publication is to provide useful economic and manpower information on the Phoenix Area (Maricopa County) to business and government decision-makers, and to the general public. This report covers developments for the area as a whole, and for specific sections within the area. Your cornments and suggestions are invited so that we may make any improvements that our readers feel are essential. Letters and comments may be addressed to: Phoenix Area Manpower Review, Research and Statistics Bureau, P.O. Box 6l23, Phoenix, Arizona 85005. ' .} HIGHLIGHTS Since the 1970 census, Maricopa County's population has increased by 21% to an estimated 1,173,000. (See Pages 2 and 27.) The Phoenix area civilian labor force reached 503,600 in July; the labor force participation rate declined for the first time in 12 years. (See Pages 5 and 26.) Manufacturing and trade industries continue as the area's major employers, ac­ counting for nearly half the total nonagricultural wage and salary employment. (See Pages 5 and 6.) Federal Manpower programs are being decentralized and decategorized under the recently enacted Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA). As of this date, almost $9,700,000 has been granted to Maricopa County and the City of Phoenix, (See Pages 7 and 8,) The economic outlook for the Phoenix area calls for a continued slow upward move­ ment for the rest of the year. (See Page 11.) Twenty-two building business activities announced or started during the first six months of 1974 are listed on Page 12. Two examples of underutilized human resources are the handicapped worker and women, A discussion of each is presented on Pages 15 through 17. Many clerical, sales, service and health occupations continue to be in high demand--see others on Page 19. See Section IV for information on current manpower programs. ~1- AREA MANPOWER PROFILE Labor Area Definition The Phoenix Area Manpower Review contains information and data for the Phoenix Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) which includes all of Maricopa County. APACHE COCONINO Sun~T~;arf."""" '· Litchfield Park ■ Scottsd ..al_ e --- Goodyear ■ ~ Mesa Buckeye ■ ■ ■ Tempe AvonOale ■ • Gilbgrt Chandler Gilo Bend ■ ****************************** Total Resident Population 1970 July 1974 Census Estimates % Increase Phoenix SMSA 969, 425* 1,173,000** 21.0 Arizona 1,773,420* 2,150,000** 21.2 United States 203,235,298 211,210,000*** 3.9 *Revised by Bureau of the Census, April 12, 1972. **Arizona Department of Economic Security estimates. ***Current Population Report, Series P-25, Number 521, May 1974, Bureau of the Census For Population by race, see Table 3 in the Appendix. - 2- Civilian Labor Force July July 1974 % Increase 1973 (Preliminary) 1973/1974 Phoenix SMSA 480,600 503,600 4.8 Arizona 813,200 852,500 4.8 United States 90,917,000 93,276,000 2.6 ****************************** Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment July July 1974 % Increase 1973 (Preliminary) 1973/1974 Phoenix SMSA 419,300 433,000 3.3 Arizona 696,300 720,600 3.5 United States 75,368,000 76,830,000 1.9 ****************************** Manufacturing Employment as Percent of Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment July July 1974 1973 (Preliminary) Phoenix SMSA · 19. 7% 19.6% Arizona 15.6 15.4 United States 26.2 25.8 ****************************** Employment in Selected Key Industries Phoenix SMSA July July 1974 % Change 1973 (Preliminary) 1973/1974 Manufacturing 82,700 84,700 2.4 Contract Construction 37,900 34,500 -9.0 Trade 103,200 108,200 4.8 Services 73,100 75,800 3.7 Government 70,800 74,400 5.1 -3- Unemployment Rate ( Seasonally Adjusted) May June July 1974 July 1974 1974 (Preliminary) 1973 Phoenix SMSA 5.5% 5.4% 5.3% 3.5% Arizona 5.4 5.4 5.3 3.6 United States 5.2 5.2 5.3 4.7 ***************************** Phoenix Area Classification by U.S. Department of Labor July 1974 Group C Area of Moderate Unemployment -4- I. RECENT MANPOWER DEVELOPMENTS CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE Maricopa County's civilian labor force reached 503,600 in July 1974 , a less than normal gain of 23,000 during the past year . The labor force participation rate (based on total population) declined in 1974 for the first time in 12 years. Year Participation Rate Year Participation Rate July 1961 33 . 6% July 1968 36.4% July 1962 33.4 July 1969 38.3 July 1963 33.4 April 1970 39.8 July 1964 34.0 July 1971 40.1 July 1965 34.5 July 1972 41. 0 July 1966 35.2 July 1973 43.5 July 1967 35.3 July 1974 42 .9 The drop in participation rate can probably be at t ributed to two events, One, a number of jobseekers have become discouraged in their search for work and have dropped out of the labor market. And two, the number of individuals (mostly teenagers) that would normally enter the labor market have decided on a different course of action, such as school, vacation or just a leisure summer. While the participation rate only declined 0.6% it should be pointed out what this means in real numbers. A change of 0.1% translates into 1,173 individuals. By using the average increase of 1.42% per year over the past five years, and adding the 0.6% drop in 1974, an estima ted 23,700 more persons could have been expected in the labor force this year than actually entered. EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENTS The current economic slowdown has created a unique situation in terms of employ­ ment distribution. Mainly, a shuffling is taking place within most industries. In relation to total nonagricultural wage and salary employment, manufacturing has remained in the area of 19.6% for three years. In 1970, it was 21.7%. Con­ tract construction, climbing until late 1973, started downward in late Spriq.g 1974-- and is still dropping. Finance, insurance and real estate, in addition to trade, remain constant, meaning both follow the overall economic climate very closely. Government and transportation, communication and public utilities have been declining in relation to others- -until this year that is. Now we see a complete turnabout. If any conclusions can be gained from these figures , it is that in times of economic slowdown, manufacturing, construction and finance are most vulnerable and may even lead the downturn. Transportation, communication and public utilities, trade, services, and government either follow or resist any downward pressure. The table on the following page presents employment by industry as a ratio to total nonagricultural employment in Maricopa. - 5- . EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT MARICOPA COUNTY July July July July 1970 1972 1973 1974 Manufacturing 21.7% 19.6% 19.7% 19.6% Mining and Quarrying 0.1 0 . 1 0.1 0.1 Contract Construction 5 . 8 8 . 6 9.0 8.0 Transportation, Communication and Public Utilities 5.7 5 . 0 4.9 5.5 Trade 24.9 25.1 24.6 25.0 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.2 Services and Miscellaneous 16.9 17.5 17.4 17.5 Government 17.7 17.0 16.9 17.2 UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has climbed throughout the year and reached a peak of 5.4% in June. July recorded a 5 . 3% rate with 29,800 total un­ employed, compared with 18,800 a year ago, and 21,500 in January. The large influx of new residents moving in to the Phoenix area prevent any rapid drop in this figure as the local economy improves, since most are unemployed when they arrive. INDUSTRY- OCCUPATION MATRIX PROGRAM It is apparent that the economy at the national level, and in Arizona, is under­ going changes that significantly affect the occupational structure of the labor force. Because there is an increasing need for a comprehensive and integrated set of employment projections, Arizona Employment Directions to 1978 was devised and made available in September 1973. This publication was initiated as a result of the Industry- Occupation Matrix Program; a cooperative effort of the U.S. Department of Labor's Manpower Administration, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Arizona Department of Economic Security Research and Statistics Bureau. The prime objec­ tive of this Federal- State endeavor is the development of an aggregate national­ state industry- occupation employment matrix. The project is basically long term, and, while Arizona Employment Directions to 1978 was completed as a first hand effort in the program, continuing effort and revisions will result in Arizona Manpower Projections to 1980, to be available in the near future. The 1970 Census of Population serves as a base for the development of occupational ratios. Inherently, since the data are derived from the census, it is based on the concept of one person- one job, as well as place of residence, Users of matrix data, - 6- and occupational data from the 1970 Census should remember that the data is de­ rived from a 20% sample. Reliability is increased with sample size; thus, the greatest amount of detail will be presented for the state, Data for the Phoenix SMSA will probably closely parallel the level of detail shown for the state; however, less detail will be available for the Tucson SMSA and still less for the 12 nonmetropolitan counties, Although initially a separate project, identification of Agribusiness will now become available as a part of the industry- occupation matrix , as will a number of other industrial categories, such as manufacturing, tourism and trade. Results derived from the Industry- Occupation Matrix Program have been, and are useful to researchers and labor market analysts .
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